Was there a surge? Or was it a mirage?
A few polls showed slight improvement for Biden immediately after the election.
For example, the New York Times reports Small Shift Toward Biden After Trump Verdict
It’s one of the biggest questions in the wake of Donald J. Trump’s conviction: Did the verdict change anyone’s mind?
Early on, the answer appears to be an equivocal “yes.”
In interviews with nearly 2,000 voters who previously took New York Times/Siena College surveys, President Biden appeared to gain slightly in the aftermath of Mr. Trump’s conviction last week for falsifying business records.
The group favored Mr. Trump by three points when originally interviewed in April and May, but this week they backed him by only one point.
Recontact Voters
Was this due to the conviction or something else?
Contacting previous respondents may be an excellent way to track how people’s views change over time, but it’s not necessarily the best way to represent the whole electorate. On the one hand, Mr. Biden’s supporters were slightly likelier to retake the survey than those who backed Mr. Trump, 37 percent to 35 percent. The voters we reached again were generally older, more educated, more highly engaged and more likely to be white than those who did not respond.
This is sampling bias.
Curiously …
In fact, the voters we spoke to who continue to support Mr. Trump appear to be more enthusiastic than ever. Many of his previously disengaged supporters seemed newly energized by the verdict, with 18 percent of his supporters who previously said they were unlikely to vote now “almost certain” to do so, compared with just 3 percent of Mr. Biden’s supporters who moved into that category.
It’s easy to spin this however you want. But it is far from clear what, if anything happened.
Another recontacting study by Echelon Insights, a Republican firm, found Mr. Biden gaining two points compared with its previous survey.
In a Times/Siena poll of six battleground states conducted in November, about 7 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters said they would switch their support to Mr. Biden if Mr. Trump were to be convicted and sentenced to jail in an unspecified criminal trial. Other pre-verdict polls asking specifically about the Manhattan hush money trial found a similar share of Mr. Trump’s supporters nationally who said they intended to switch their support if there were a guilty verdict.
Let’s discuss The New York Times vs the New York Times.
The New York Times View #1
It’s one of the biggest questions in the wake of Donald J. Trump’s conviction: Did the verdict change anyone’s mind?
Early on, the answer appears to be an equivocal “yes.”
The New York Times View #2
While recontacting studies can help answer important questions of whether individuals are changing their minds, this study is not necessarily representative of the entire electorate.
It is not possible to calculate a conventional margin of sampling error. And while all surveys have sources of error beyond sampling, such as nonresponse bias, this study in particular may be more likely than the typical Times/Siena poll to overrepresent the most politically engaged voters.
538 Forecast
538 calls the above its 2024 Election Forecast.
Biden vs. Trump: Who is Leading the Polls?
Reuters asks Biden vs. Trump: Who is leading the polls?
Donald Trump, the Republican challenger in the U.S. presidential contest, opened up a marginal 2 percentage point lead over U.S. President Joe Biden this week in the race to win the November election, as voters weigh the recent criminal convictions of Trump and of Biden’s son, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Some 41% of registered voters in the two-day poll, which closed on Tuesday, said they would vote for Trump if the election were held today, while 39% picked Biden, a Democrat. Some 20% of voters in the poll said they had not picked a candidate, were leaning toward third-party options or might not vote at all in the Nov. 5 election.
Spotlight Virginia
Newsweek reports Joe Biden Suffers Shock Poll in State Democrats Have Not Lost in 20 years
However, according to polling by firm co/efficient, Biden and Trump are now tied in Virginia, a state which has not backed a Republican for president since George W. Bush in 2004.
According to their survey of 851 likely voters, 41 percent would vote for Biden while 41 percent would vote for Trump. A further 12 percent are undecided and seven percent would vote for a third-party candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Post-Conviction Coefficient Virginia Poll June 11-12
In that poll, Trump picked up more votes than he lost post conviction.
And this is before the conviction is overturned, which I expect it will be.
That is only one poll. We should not read too much into it yet. However, Biden is going to have to defend some states Democrats never thought they would have to spend money defending.
Newsweek reports polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight awarded co/efficient 1.1 stars out of three and has given it a transparency score of 3.2 out of 10, raising questions about the reliability of the poll.
OK, what about Fox?
The Wall Street Journal notes “A Fox News Voter Analysis poll of registered voters, conducted from June 1 to 4, also found Biden tied with Trump” in Virginia.
Fox News Polls are done by Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research.
Conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), Fox News national surveys include interviews with a representative sample of approximately 1,200 registered voters who were randomly selected from a national registered voter list sourced from Aristotle. About 75% of completed interviews are with respondents on the telephone (roughly 15% on landlines and 85% cellphones) and the remainder are with respondents contacted by text message who then complete the survey online. The total sample has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. When necessary, minor weights are used to ensure the demographics of survey respondents are representative of the national registered voter population. All sample frames are weighted together. Generally, weights are applied to age, race, education, and area variables. The Fox News poll is not weighted by party identification. (statement updated February 2024)
538 gives 2.8 stars out of 3 to Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research. The company was rated 15th out of 277pollsters analyzed.
Key Dates and Events
- June 27 Debate: All eyes will be on Biden. He will not have a teleprompter. Neither will Trump, but Biden shows no ability to think on his feet, confusing names, dates, and facts. This debate will be hosted by CNN.
- July 11 Sentencing: Trump sentencing is coming up. He could be sentenced to prison. My guess no.
- Immediate Appeal: Whatever the sentence, it will be appealed immediately. I strongly believe conviction will be overturned. If the sentence is prison, the appeal resolution may be quicker.
- July 15-18 Republican National Convention: The event is anticipated to potentially bring 50,000 visitors to Milwaukee.
- August 19-22 Democratic National Convention: This will take place in Chicago. There’s a decent chance it could get ugly.
- September 10 Second Debate: Assuming Biden is still standing, the second debate will be on September 10. This one will be hosted by ABC news.
- Tuesday, November 5: Election
The election is now less than five months away.
Models Can’t Think
538 says “Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Biden wins 48 times out of 100.” The missing result is a recount or a tie.
I look at the 538 model and say WTF?
Biden needs to do well in the debates. He rates to lose ground if the Trump conviction is overturned. And anyone watching him knows he might not make it to November. No one has any idea what would happen if Biden were to drop out.
But as it stands, the path for Biden is much narrower than the path for Trump. Yet Nate Silver effectively calls it a dead heat.
538 ignores the path and just looks at polls, despite knowing that support for Trump is historically higher than polls suggest.
History may not be the guide this time. but we need to think Trump may outperform the polls again.
GDPNow Analogy
After slamming the 538 forecast, models have some advantages.
People can overthink things. There is also a tendency to make excuses to believe what you want. That is the benefit to models.
I have been watching the Atlanta Fed GDPNow GDP model for many years.
It cannot think either.
And at the start of every quarter the nowcast can be wildly off. But as data comes in, the model gets more an more accurate. For about eight quarters, the final model forecast has outperformed professional forecasters.
Nate Silver’s 538 model will get better over time after some of those scheduled events happen.
As for now, this thinking person suggests 538 is way off base because it cannot make a judgment on anything but polls. It also seems to underestimate the narrow path Biden has.
If so, it’s a 538 model error to arrive at 51-48 looking ahead to November. T
Trump Found Guilty – a Travesty of Justice for America
On May 30, I wrote Trump Found Guilty – a Travesty of Justice for America
Trump was found guilty of a crime, but can anyone say what it is? Prosecutorial misconduct is dripping. It’s the judge, not Trump who belongs in prison.
This conviction will be overturned. Put that in your model.
Also note Trump raised nearly $53 million in the 24 hours after his felony conviction, shattering online records for Republicans and helping him close a substantial financial gap with President Biden.
Did any model predict that?
You see the unhinged comments here from “Albert”, “Casual Observer”, “DavidC”, “Michael Engel”, and “Jeffery Kassal” about Biden’s lack of popularity bumb after a third world banana legal verdict.
But nowhere do you see Chicago Man Mish threatening to delete the comments or ban the commenters. Mish only makes that threat against political viewpoints that are not acceptable n Chicago, NYC or California
An impaired Trump and a weak VP cannot win the Nov election. Trump might trade with Yougkin. Youngkin might be a relay station between Trump and the swamp. He will stabilize him and the county. He will stop the character assassination. SPX might takeoff under Trump/Younkin. When prices will be affordable, when real wages and productivity will be higher, the evil will be forgotten and country will be pacified until the first stopping action in 2027/28.
I think that many Republican voters are wondering if Trump is truly available for public service.
Trump recently said he may not attend the GOP convention for “security reasons” (even if not home-confined). Does he not want the job anymore?
I am reading some mighty naive remarks here.
HEY, I am a realist: if you it makes you feel good voting, go right on ahead and let me know, in future comments if all is going to “plan.”
I CAN BE HOPEFUL but I am NOT NAIVE.
If you still vote in US Federal elections it is a sign that you haven’t been paying attention.
Aristotle said that men are political animals by nature and we are. He then said that those who do not participate in political life were either beasts or gods, meaning that either they do not possess the rational capacity for politics or that they were so self-sufficient that they had no need of a political community whatsoever. Which are you?
Apparently I am a god.
I hadn’t really noticed.
But it’s not a big deal.
There are so many of us that I have lost count.
You can be a god too!
You can’t be a god if you don’t have the means. That’s the point of what he was saying. Gods are immune to economic breakdowns so they don’t care about politics.
What happened to the “disaffected” or those who have already thrown in the towel on the MADNESS known as Voting.
Madness defined as: “Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.”
I am in that NON-VOTING MINORITY (WE may well be the majority, because it would amaze me that SO MANY of the U.S. Electorate would be that deeply MAD).
However, when I consider that so many COMPLIED WILLINGLY with the Masking/Lock Downs/Vaccines (somewhat mandated), then I think that there many be THAT MANY OF THE ENTIRE US POPULATION who may have the intelligence of a Cretan.
Whoever gets elected: NOTHING WILL CHANGE.
NOTHING CAN CHANGE.
DO ANY OF YOU HERE REALLY (ACTUALLY) BELIEVE that the EVIL FORCES DRIVING THE AGENDA and GOALS WILL SUDDENLY DISAPPEAR or IMPROVE?
DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE THAT TRUMP CAN CHANGE ANYTHING based upon his first-term RESULTS.
“I WILL DRAIN THE SWAMP” from 2016 will now magically be transformed to “I WILL DRAIN THE SWAMP THIS TIME FOR SURE – I PROMISE”
REALLY?
IT IS NOT POSSIBLE.
DO YOU NOT SEE THAT EVERY ASPECT OF GOVERNMENT RULE HAS BEEN TRANSFORMED INTO EVIL INTENTIONS?
So what is the choice you have to offer?
Sit and do nothing whilst your heritage gets stolen from right in front of you.
I do not need a Saint to be President. I do need someone who governs in accordance with Constitutional Law.
You think things were not different under Trump first term then under Biden?
If nothing can get changed by a second Trump administration then the simple question is why are there so many people out to stop Trump from a second term?
Richard, I am likely quite a bit older than you are. There was a time in my life that Presidents and their Admins, and the Powers in the hidden corridors, were at LEAST trying to do the right thing. I am talking the 50’s.
Then, VIETNAM came along and some of my older Pals from HS were brought home in Wooden boxes. It had a profound impact on me because AT THAT TIME there was no clear identified “enemy.” All I know is that half of my best friends were KIA, or MIA or came home in Wooden Boxes, and the rest came home and committed misery upon their wives, kids and two drank themselves to death and the others have died (one who was on the Mekong).
Thus, it slowly but surely crept up on ALL OF US: Undeclared Wars, DEBT MOUNDS, a slow but sure Inflationary Effect of too much $$ in circulation and then they also use LYING BLS shit to convince us we are just fine, thank you.
In those contextual constructs lies my deep cynicism. Thus, I am not a believer in Politics.
Politics = UNFILLED PROMISES.
And, then we got our present Nincompoops that try to convince us that Chinese Tariffs are paid by China.
If you fall for that, and other promises, YOU ARE THE IDIOT, not me.
I wish you the best in your Hopes and Dreams. I am sick now from Heart Failure and when that happens to a Man, realities come to a head.
Maybe you are ready to quit but I am not. Having four sons and 9 grand children there is a very large vested interest for me.
The only reason I was not drafted was because my lottery number came up high and draft did not reach it. That occurred when I was already out of HS several years.
I also ran a construction business of which most employees were veterans of Vietnam. So as consequence had to deal with all the flashbacks that happened onsite as well as the rest of Baggage which came back to US shores from Asia.
Will not go into my health issues have had to deal with, but most people would have given up quite some time ago.
We will all be in that grave which awaits for a long time, but for now that grim reaper can go fuck himself and so can Joe Biden.
“I do need someone who governs in accordance with Constitutional Law.”
Tough. You were born in the wrong place, a century and a half too late, for that.
America is now just another Argentina/Venezuela/Zimbabwe. No different, at all, from the rest of them
If I have your pen name correct “Stuki Moi” it comes from a movie, but am not sure enough to make that connection.
But if it did it might have been the name of a character who stood against tyranny when the chips were down.
Why do you blog then if there is no hope?
Nothing changes if you sit back and do nothing.
On this very forum in late 2022/early 2023, I predicted the stock market bottom already happened in Oct. 2022. “Somebody” bet me a beer that it would go lower. It never did.
I’m making another “sure” prediction that the next president will be someone other than Trump or Biden. Just an educated hunch based on a gut feeling.
If I’m wrong? I’ll forget I ever made the prediction. If I’m right, I want my beer this time!
Blue Moon for u
Interesting.
On 11/29/22 I made the stock market “bottom was already in” prediction. I made it based on chart analysis.
Then “sombebody” replied
Reply to dtj
Care to make a friendly bet of Pizza and beer on a stock market bottom?
I suppose we never did shake on it.
What index do you think already bottomed out? I can’t find how to get a total US stock market index these days, what happened to the Wilshire 5000?, which kind of seems like a conspiracy to me.
Show the Sienna 2000 the video of Joe on walkabout during the G7 photo op and see if any of them thinks Biden can make it through another term let alone finish this one.
Mish continuously ignores the RFK jr. Factor. In head to head contests(Zogby poll) RFK actually beats both candidates. RFK could win if there is no clear winner in electoral votes and it goes to Congress. If Trump is head to head with Biden, Joe loses out badly. RFK will pull a good deal of moderates away from both DNC and GOP so the ignoring of that campaign makes the polls 100% moot. The worse Joe gets and the more Trump talks it’s quite possible RFK will have a huge impact. It’s too bad out system has no coalition ability-US elections are just trash with these uniparty offerings
The progressive party, a third party, destroyed Taft and the R during the 1912 election. TR, who led the progressive, stabbed his own ex party in the back. Wilson won. TR died in agony, in his LI estate, after losing a son in WWI.
RFK and Nicole Shanahan are 2 independent who might steal votes both from Biden and Trumps, 2 weak candidates. Whom they might hurt the most : nobody ?
Either the D or the R party, or both, might elect a different candidate in the next few weeks.
Cocoa: your analysis requires that the election NOT be fixed.
COME ON!
Trump/ Youngkin : FDR (Eisenhower) shot WWI veterans camping outside the white house. Coolidge shot rioters during the Boston police strike.
Youngkin, formerly of the Carlyle Group. Hope not. Just Deep Stater without the scowl. Youngkin as VP would be quite an incentive for the CIA to kill Trump.
I don’t know about others, but where I live there was a knock on the door.
Went and answered it.
The local Dem candidate running in a primary for a state assembly seat introduced themself.
Went thru his whole speech.
I responded “enough with the Democrats, we live in different worlds. No one in this house will be voting Democrat ”
He was shocked at my candor.
There are still enough people in US who have worked their lives with a commitment to the generations who will follow. They have had a belly-full of the party which believes it is just fine to steal from those who have produced so as to dole that wealth to those who have not contributed anything.
I’ll wave the Flag which offers equal opportunity to all who desire a chance to better themselves in this Life. Doing so in a manner based upon a level playing field.
But will not be waving any other.
WHY NOT WAVE THE INDEPENDENT FLAG.
If not, then you are smoking the “best SHIT” that one of the parties is offering you.
I stopped smoking weed.
There never was a Biden bump. It was the White House and msm trying to gaslight the voters.
When his teleprompter doesn’t work, Trump sounds increasingly crazed and unhinged (making sounds like an electrocuted shark). Biden, by comparison, comes across as an elder statesman (but showing his 81). MAGA’s desperate attempts to denigrate Biden’s intellect (while putting Biden at the center of a highly complex conspiracy to put Trump and his own son in prison). There is a reason why the 65+ voters are more and more breaking for Biden. And I have no doubts that Biden will emerge as the clear winner of the debates as long as being in command of facts and logic still counts in this country.
Albert: please describe what ROBOT BIDEN LOOKS LIKE! Pictures tell thousands of words, and the ROBOT SPEWS HUNDREDS at a time.
Pretty soon it will be 5’s and 10’s of words.
After that: ONE WORD before he falls on his head and then they will bring in a new Democratic Robot.
Biden looks like 81. But he doesn’t look and sound crazed and unhinged like Trump.
“MAGA’s desperate attempts to denigrate Biden’s intellect…”
It is Biden and Garland that are desperately working to suppress the tape of Hur’s interview of Biden. As for conspiracy, Fani’s now removed associate met with the White House. There is obvious coordination going on. Fani is now under appellate review herself.
Hillary has entered the Chat.
Hey, can I have some of what you are smoking…must be good stuff.
Trump is a great victim hiding behind Mark Levin. Trump made Putin, Kim and Xi his new best friends, but failed to control the invisible hand. When the troskyist raided the white house he failed to stop them with live ammunition and bayonets. During the summer of love he retreated allowing the chaos to cont until the Nov election. The fake media, serving their masters, assassinate his character for 8 years. Instead of shooting 5/10 in the southern border he built a wall with holes. During covid Dr Faust took over and shut down the whole country. He raided banks account, without people’s knowledge and permission, creating inflation. Trump/Youngkin might win the Nov election.
Avraham accord ==> Trump autopia.
17 RED hat Trump/Youngin supporters is better.
Nancy the reaper stunned Trump, paralyzed him into inaction, more than once, fearing Mark Levin. Xi instantly responded during her Taiwan provocations.
Biden is a dictator. Trump is weak. Give me 10 red !!
8 red ==> not good enough !
“They’re being dumped at an alarming rate – we’ve been overwhelmed,” she said. “Sometimes we have a really bad week – last week I picked up seven dogs in two days and only one dog went back home.”
The main culprits, Gibson said, are breeders who can’t sell their dogs and people who can’t afford to take care of theirs anymore.
“We’re seeing a really high increase of what we presume are dumped animals,” she said. “With the housing crisis and people not being able to afford their own food or housing, people are at that point they’re dumping their dogs because they don’t feel like they have a choice.”
https://www.parisstaronline.com/news/local-news/dumped-dogs-risk-being-euthanized/wcm/9062b81c-f724-40d1-96a7-ec55ad8a49c2
This is a very real problem. Full disclosure: I recently purchased a dog from a breeder, and @ $4,000.00 plus expenses, it’s not an affordable pet for many.
I have to have her spaded, to protect the breeder, which I totally understand. I must provide proof, and they follow-up. If I don’t, they take the animal back. These dogs also require specialty care (I have a Mini Aussie) like grooming (3x mth), spa appts (4x Yr), special food diet, etc. I also have training (12 lessons) which I just completed the first phase. I will be into this dog for 10K Min.by the time she’s a year old (including fencing).
It is possible to obtain a dog which doesn’t “require” spa appointments….. 🙂
Heck, some say it is even possible to obtain a wife which doesn’t strictly require them…..
Still:
Stray/feral dogs are all over the place, anywhere south of the border.
Since North America has now caught up with Latin America in economic; as well as every other form of; decay, it’s hardly surprising homeless, destitute and malnourished North Americans, are no longer any better positioned to take care of animals than their similarly poor Latin American brethren.
The liberal media is in a state of panic for Biden. Alleged comments by Trump are routinely twisted around almost on a weekly basis, and it will continue throughout the campaign period. “I’ll have a dictatorship”, “Bloodbath” and “Milwaukee is a horrible city” attributed to Trump seem to have no effect on the voting public. We’re so used to the media bias now.
Trump didn’t call Milwaukee a shit hole? Maybe not literally, but that’s what he meant figuratively.
You guys keep going down the rabbit hole about stuff Trump said or didn’t say. Getting electrocuted or eaten by sharks. Nobody gives a shit. They know Trump just vamps when he’s onstage. Either you find it funny or you don’t. No big whoop. For the half dozen persuadable Milwaukee residents who take offense that Trump said Milwaukee (crime) is horrible, there are a lot more Wisconsinites outside of Milwaukee who agree.
Politicians like Trump are a dime for a dozen in Banana republics. After all these years, I still find it amazing that half of the country thinks a BS artist like Trump could be a competent president.
Democrats do what good marxists (of the Frankfurt school type) and that is “project”.
America has never elected a convicted felon to the Presidency. And the documents case and the Atlanta RICO cases will result in convictions if they ever take place. We know Trump took secret, confidential and top secret documents because he admitted it on TV and claimed he had a right to do it; the DOJ claims otherwise. And in the Atlanta RICO case, Trump’s lawyers have already pled guilty and are cooperating with the prosecution against Trump. I don’t understand why judges are cooperating in delaying these trials since it’s important to have someone with decent character in the White house. Trump is an obvious, lying, cheating, swaggering, slandering psychopath and it’s embedded in his character. I’m not a Biden guy and he’s almost as bad a candidate as Hillary Clinton…in some ways he’s worse; still Trump is an unpredictable, self-serving, egomaniac who was a ringleader in the plan to overthrow the duly elected government in 2020. It was a bold and reckless plan that fortunately failed, and a lot of people will go to prison because they participated in it. Mr. Shedlock might expect the case to be overturned but no one can know. I rather doubt it but I’m not a lawyer either.
He may be a psychopath, but he’s OUR psychopath.
Duly Elected!? Hah!
https://heartland.org/opinion/heartland-rasmussen-poll-one-in-five-mail-in-voters-admit-to-committing-at-least-one-kind-of-voter-fraud-during-2020-election/
I’ll say Biden was legally elected (according to our process) but not properly/duly elected… likely to happen again in 2024.
PS – Rasmussen survey is not proof of fraud, but it is evidence … not sufficient and too late to affect outcome.
The whole thing is banana republic like and very scary
– America has never elected a convicted felon to the Presidency.
> America has not yet had that choice to make, and may never will?
– And the documents case and the Atlanta RICO cases will result in convictions if they ever take place.
> Who told you they will result in conviction’s? I would rather wait until it’s even a case to be tried first (Innocent Until PROVEN Guilty), and then see what that may or may not lead to.
– We know Trump took secret, confidential and top secret documents because he admitted it on TV and claimed he had a right to do it; the DOJ claims otherwise.
> See Above
– And in the Atlanta RICO case, Trump’s lawyers have already pled guilty and are cooperating with the prosecution against Trump.
> See above
– I don’t understand why judges are cooperating in delaying these trials since it’s important to have someone with decent character in the White house.
> See above
– Trump is an obvious, lying, cheating, swaggering, slandering psychopath and it’s embedded in his character.
> You sure know a lot about someone you never met, don’t know at all, obviously read rags for your news, and just make stuff up…
– I’m not a Biden guy.
> Sure sounds like you are (a puppet).
– Trump is an unpredictable, self-serving, egomaniac who was a ringleader in the plan to overthrow the duly elected government in 2020.
> See above
– Mr. Shedlock might expect the case to be overturned.
> So do about 100 Million other Americans…
Perhaps the American people see that the conviction was concocted from novel twisted legal theories specifically designed for Trump, that they see that the Dems have called lost elections illegitimate since 2000 and pursued ‘overthrowing the duly elected government’ via accusations of treason, Russia collusion investigations and sham impeachments? Hence no different
And they rightly see Biden and Dems as just as bad…. Censoring American speech through pressure on social media, engaging in nuclear brinksmanship with Russia, isolating ourselves globally with war-mongering on Ukraine and Israel’s pulverization of Gaza, destructive stimulus programs that led to inflation, and perhaps worst of all, campaigning on making American minorities fear other American citizens – dividing America by race and ethnicity.
Don’t tell me Biden/Harris/Schiff/Schumer/Pelosi are any better than Trump.
“America has never elected a convicted felon to the Presidency.”
But only because America used to have a judiciary which retained at least some tiny, tiny trace of credibility. Hence, there used to be some, however remote, correlation between being a “convicted felon”, a “terrorist”or whatever, and actually having done something wrong.
That is no longer the case. At all. For anyone.
Now, the only thing being a “convicted felon” signifies, is that trashy ambulance chasers on the make and their frat bro careerist robe rats, feels it benefits them personally to; entirely arbitrarily like all else in the idiotopia referred to as the US; deem someone such a thing.
The coup was 4 years long and against Trump. Amazing how you ignore that. The Zelensky phone call was legal, so there should have been no impeachment. That was election interference by Democrats. That is not the hallmark of a free and fair election. That is abuse of power, which is what the Democrats Trump prosecutions are. As congressman Massey said the other day, congress has spent 17 million dollars paying hush money for sexual misconduct of of congressional members. Also, Biden is simply an unconvicted felon, as is Hillary. Someone even wrote a book titled “Three Felonies a Day, which applies to the public at large, considering the number of unenforced laws on the books.
Considerng the judicial and prosecutorial corruption in the hush money trial, there are technical justifications to overturn the verdict.
The sham trial and absurd ‘conviction’ are proof of the egregious lawfare waged by the deranged left. Normal people and, importantly, independents see this for what it is. The most delicious irony is that the dims have actually helped ensure a second term for Trump. It’s really solid gold!
I have a poll that says Biden is within margin of error in Florida, a state he lost bigly in 2020 so take your pick on the polls.
I also think it is too early and this election is unlike any other in recent American history. The winner cannot be predicted in May as has usually been the case by the famous professor who has gotten every Presidential election right since coming out with his model. Things that are likely to impact the election this summer:
It is a period of great instability that started in 2015 and won’t end until 2033. I stand by my prediction that one or multiple states may leave the union by the end of the decade (as a close advisor of Putin had predicted in the mid 2000s) and may mark the effective end of the 50 state union.
At the moment there are no States even close to leaving the Union despite the rhetoric that some people in places like Texas or California post whenever their party isn’t in power.
Things were WAY more unstable in the 60s than they are today (civil rights movement, forced school integration in the south which is WAY beyond anything that the Federal government crams down States these days, Vietnam war protests etc) and no state even contemplated leaving the union.
The only way any State is leaving is an economic collapse. Until that happens, States will just continue to ignore Federal mandates and dare the Feds to do something (like sanctuary cities under Trump and Abbot using the National Guard at the border under Biden) which for the most part the Feds are going to increasingly do nothing.
we are one (more) fraudulent election away from Red State Secession.
20+ states are openly nullifying federal law… legally-speaking, nullification is a half-step from secession… IOW, many states ARE ALREADY THERE.
20+ states have quietly managed ALL of the necessary provisions for secession.
half of Oregon is poised to join Idaho.
you can ignore facts/reality, but you cannot deny them.
we are VERY close to collective state secession.
will a $USD currency crisis qualify as “economic collapse? imo, it does.
States ignoring Federal mandates isn’t a new phenomenon. It’s been going on in varying degrees since the creation of the union.
I’m to young to have experienced the sixties and seventies, but from what I can gather violent crime per capita was much MUCH higher than it is now, there were massive protests, assassinations of prominant people like MLK, JFK, and RFK, the Kent State massacre, bombings by leftist groups (Weather Underground, etc), and a major war that left over 50,000 Americans dead.
All this talk of a new civil war or states leaving the union is just more doom and gloom bullshit that is perpetuated by grifter pundits on both sides of the isle trying to keep their audience in a constant state of panicked fear in order to sell them products or “ideas” that will save them from the prophesied coming calamity. It’s no different from a doomsday cult.
Things aren’t great, but they could be ALOT worse. No one ever guaranteed anyone an easy life of gum drops and lollipops. Life is a rollercoaster, there will be lots of ups and downs. So make the best of it and enjoy the ride.
two dozen states are actively nullifying federal law, not “ignoring federal mandates”. apples vs. elephants.
if you believe Texas will stick around for a 2nd term of Biden, you are kidding yourself.
sure, things can ALWAYS be worse… that’s a canard, not an argument.
real violent crime vs. reported violent crime… very different things. stats coming out of blue cities today are laughable. real crime is off the charts.
your optimism is very 1995… maybe you’re in a “status quo” cult.
explain the Greater Idaho movement. are they just selling t-shirts?
I lived in Texas from 96-03 (the misses and her family is from Texas). People there always talked about ceding and going their own way. Nothing ever happens and they are absolutely not leaving if Biden is re-elected.
You seem to think Texas is something like 90-10 Republican. It’s about 52-48, roughly in line with most of the country. So half won’t want to leave and the political capital is solidly Democrat. Texas had Democratic governors less than 30 years ago and for most of it’s history. It could easily get one again.
As for Greater Idaho, wake me when something beyond selling t-shirts happens. People love to gripe but as long as their is food in their bellies, entertainment on TV/internet and a warm bed they ain’t taking up arms to do anything.
Greater Idaho: 15 Oregon counties have already passed the referendum + more coming. All legal, and nothing will stop it.
Wake up, noob… the world is passing you by…
But did they vote to cede from the union or only to join another state. There is a vast difference.
Well said, especially the quote below.
“People love to gripe but as long as their is food in their bellies, entertainment on TV/internet and a warm bed they ain’t taking up arms to do anything”
Couldn’t have said it any better. Internet warriors are a f#$king dime a dozen these days. Sometimes I think they genuinely want shit to hit the fan, but they have no comprehension of the suffering it would bring.
You seem to know what the actual crime rates are so share your data and enlighten us.
Oh, and ignoring Federal law is the same as nullifying it within a stares borders.
– I have a poll that says Biden is within margin of error in Florida.
> hahaha right.
– Things that are likely to impact the election this summer:
Economy and inflation – Created by Biden Inc.
Israel and Gaza – Shouldn’t at all, but extremely minimal if so.
Trump immunity claim not being granted by Supreme Court – Never Happen.
January 6th case starting up again in September – Who cares it’s been debunked.
Trump possibly getting put under house arrest with gag order – Make him stronger!
Third party candidate Kennedy roiling the outcome in multiple states. – Perot was a Rep. & Kennedy is a Dem. Nothing similar at all. May hurt Biden?
National debt is an obstacle for any state (or states) to secede. Thank Alexander Hamilton (father of the national debt) for that.
I would not be surprised if Biden is off the ticket by the convention. I think if the dems want to win, they will bypass Newsom and draft that democrat governor of Kentucky Andrew Beshear. Not that I would vote for him but he looks like a moderate, southern governor which the dems do well with (Carter, Clinton).
Wonder how subservient is Beshear to AIPAC?
If Senile Joe drops out or drops dead and the Ds don’t nominate Kamalatoe, they will lose for sure. Not only will passing her over split the party, but the failure to nominate a sitting VP for president if the president isn’t running would be a disaster. Last time that happened to the Ds was in 1952, and look what happened.
You guys see the photo’s of Biden in Europe the other day?
I think it was Italian leader after she walked over to get him she has this look of stunned concern as she is looking at Biden. Like a WTF?
Seriously, this is Elder care abuse. This is intentional and we are a laughing stock all over the world and its not because of Trump. Sure, what world leaders say to the media is one thing, behind the scenes they must be wondering who the heck is running the U.S?
I know I am.
I think the first debate (assuming Trump can attend) will put Trump firmly in the lead in spite of it being run by CNN.
In fact, it is likely to be a real struggle for Biden, he’s fading mentally at an exponential rate. If Kennedy makes it in by some miracle, I double my bet.
Expodentially. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZ9sz5_o-uE
Anybody with a room temperature IQ could see Trump’s conviction was a politically motivated Corrupt Kangaroo Court decision.
Everything the Lunatic Left has done to destroy Trump has backfired.
Tell us that when he goes to jail. Al Capone didn’t get put in the clink for having people murdered. He went for being a corrupt SoB.
The Angry Orange Mussolini Wannabe getting convicted just gives those people who didn’t want to vote for him a reason to stay home. Don the Con just won’t have independents and “sick of his shite” Republicans show up to vote.
Capone went to jail for income tax evasion.
The recent case against Trump was also about income tax cheating because Trump deducted his payoff money to Stormy Daniels on his tax submission. He claimed it was a legal expense when it had nothing to do with his business or legal work done in service to his business.
Using an unconvicted tax case to extend the expired statue of limitations on a misdemeanor to flip it into felonies? Can you show me ONE other case like this? Anywhere? I know you hate him, but your bias is affecting your objectivity.
i guess fools like yourself explain why its close at all.
Thanks for the fact-free cope.
It’s not that Trump is as pure as the driven snow. It’s that he’s less corrupt than LBJ, Clinton and Biden. He’s also less murderous than LBJ, George W Bush, Obama or Biden. So prosecuting Trump over this mickey mouse horseshit is a political witch hunt.