In politics, you need to understand the message voters make. So, what is the message from France? UK? Who won? 
This morning, a friend of mine commented “I watched a British outlet last night that characterized the election as a win for Macron.“
I replied “That’s like getting news from Rachael Maddow or The View.”
My friend didn’t say he agreed, only that is what the outlet said.
Regardless, I don’t criticize those watching nearly anything. In fact, I encourage that.
Following the Trump-Biden debate, I tuned into MSNBC just to see what they had to say. I had more fun watching the MSNBC meltdown than those watching the predictable Fox news take.
I draw a line at watching The View unless you are seriously interested in laughing at the stupidest discussion on TV.
Thoughts from The View
Returning to sensible discussion, let’s go over the French Election numbers.
French Election Results
- Macron (Ensemble) had 245 seats, now 159
- Le Pen (National Rally RN) had 89, now 142
- Stéphane Séjourné (Popular Front Alliance FP) had 131, now 180.
The “had” numbers above are from the last election, not the 2014 pre-election seat totals which may differ slightly.
To spin this as a victory for Macron is beyond delusional. To spin this as a loss for Le Pen is also delusional, just not quite as bad.
France is Now Ungovernable
On July 7, I commented, France is Now Ungovernable Following a Pyrrhic Victory for the Left-Green Alliance
I did not expect National Rally to win a majority, but nor did I expect a third place finish. This is a terrible outcome for both Macron and France.
Who Lost?
That one is easy. Macron. CBS News did a good job explaining why.
With no majority and little possibility of implementing his own plans, Macron comes out weakened from the elections.
Three major political blocs emerged from the elections — yet none of them is close to the majority of at least 289 seats out of 577 required to form a government on its own. The National Assembly is the most important of France’s two houses of parliament. It has the final say in the law-making process over the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives.
While not uncommon in other European countries, modern France has never experienced a parliament with no dominant party. Such a situation requires lawmakers to build consensus across parties to agree on government positions and legislation.
France’s fractious politics and deep divisions over taxes, immigration and Mideast policy make that especially challenging.
This means Macron’s centrist allies won’t be able to implement their pro-business policies, including a promise to overhaul unemployment benefits. It could also make passing a budget more difficult.
Macron has said he would not work with the hard-left France Unbowed party, but he could possibly stretch out a hand to the Socialists and the Greens. They may refuse to take it, however. If he can’t make a political deal, Macron could name a government of experts unaffiliated with political parties. Such a government would likely deal mostly with day-to-day affairs of keeping France running.
Complicating matters: Any of those options would require parliamentary approval. The left has been torn by divisions in the past months, especially after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel.
Macron’s move to call snap legislative elections pushed leftist leaders to quickly agree on forming a new coalition, the New Popular Front.
Their joint platform promises to raise the minimum salary from 1,400 to 1,600 euros ($1,515 to $1,735), to pull back Macron’s pension reform that increased the retirement age from 62 to 64 and to freeze prices of essential food products and energy. All that has financial markets worried.
That is labeled as a “Win” for Macron if you are watching the British version of Whoopie’s View.
Tactical Outcome
Eurointelligence comments on the Tactical Outcome in both France and the UK.
France’s RN and the Labour Party had approximately similar vote shares in the recent parliamentary elections around one third. The difference, of course, is that Labour won with a massive majority whereas the RN did not. The difference is not so much due to voting systems as such. Both are versions of winner-takes-all voting systems. The main difference is tactical voting. Never before have we seen tactical voting playing such a decisive role.
Even the normally reliable French polls got this wrong. The UK polls were hopeless. Labour’s share of the votes was really very low, outside of all polling error margins. The data are telling us that Labour was after all not assured of victory as people had anticipated.
The Labour victory, and certainly its scale, is to a large extent due to the entry of Nigel Farage, which fatally split the votes of the right. Had Farage and the Conservatives instead formed a strategic alliance, with Farage’s Reform contesting the strong pro-Brexit constituencies, and the Conservatives the erst of the country, the outcome would have been very different. We have yet to see the numbers, but our best guess would be a hung parliament, with a Labour/LibDem coalition.
In the long run, tactical voting increases volatility, but not political outcomes. In France, the centre and the left cannot sustainably collude to keep the right from power. They will now have to govern together. If they fail, the ire of centrists and moderate conservatives, and possibly even moderate Socialists, would turn against the Left, just as the voters of the hard left might see the centre, not the right, as its main opponent.
If you take a sufficiently long-term view, these fluctuations even out. Electoral systems matter, but as we saw in the UK and the US, they don’t keep extremes away. In France or Germany, they don’t either.
Uncharted Territory
On July 7, I commented France Is in Uncharted Territory, Expect a Big Political Catfight
The French Far Left says it is ready to govern. Halleluiah? A catfight is coming up, advantage National Rally.
There Is No Magic Solution
There is no magic solution and that was evident immediately from the preliminary results, at least to anyone who can do simple math.
Despite the obvious math problem, perhaps some coalition government compromise forms out of this mess. Just don’t expect it to be stable.
The center cannot hold, yet it rules out forming a coalition with either the Left or Right.
It would be very smart of National Rally to stay out of the fight until the next presidential election in 2027.
Macron will regret these snap elections. He is the big loser in this.
The ultimate winner in this election will be the party that can stay as far away from the Center/Left catfight as possible.
National Rally is only party that has a chance to stay out of the mess, and that is what I expect them to do.
The UK Message
If you thought the UK message was extreme shift to the Left, you got the wrong message.
The message from the UK is people are fed up with Conservatives lack of leadership on virtually everything, not that a majority is suddenly clamoring for socialism.
Farage was willing to have a scorched earth election than govern with Conservatives. He seems pleased with that result. Halleluiah?
One reason behind the shift to Labour and Nigel Farage’s party is lack of any progress by Conservatives on immigration.
Labour is anti-immigration, unlike the far Left in France.
The Message from France
The message from France is the center has totally blown out. Radicals on the Left and Right are now a combined majority (with no hope of governing).
This has never happened before.
If you thought Macron won or Le Pen was the big loser, you got the wrong message.
The Left in France wants unlimited immigration, price controls, and a reduced retirement age. Good luck with your budget to say the least.
To repeat: The ultimate winner in the French election will be the party that can stay as far away from the Center/Left catfight as possible.
National Rally is the only party that has a chance to stay out of the mess, and that is what I expect them to do.
What About NATO?
Nothing changed. Defense is a presidential responsibility in France. Day-to-day domestic legislation is the responsibility of the Prime Minister.
Le Pen is anti-NATO and now has 142 seats up from 89 and up from 2 prior to that. But as noted this is not a Prime Minister’s duty anyway.
This is what some say is a win for Macron, a victory for NATO, and a defeat of Le Pen.
If RN can avoid blame for the pending fiscal debacle that’s nearly certain, Le Pen is much better poised to win the next French presidential election. She will learn from this.
Lesson for the US
The lesson for the US is Trump is not assured of a victory.
But also, it’s a mistake for US Progressives to focus too much on specific messages from the UK and France that do not apply here.
We do not have much tactical voting in the US. What tactical voting might happen relates to the idea “I cannot stand either of them”.
US Undecided and Third Party
As it stands, one recent post-debate poll shows Kennedy at 8.2 percent with undecided voters another 7.9 percent.
Double digits are possible for Kennedy with big potential ramifications down ticket for the Democrats.
For poll discussion, please see Post-Debate USA Today-Suffolk Poll Has Grim News for President Biden
I created some charts from a new post-debate poll that shows Biden is weakening fast. I also tie in the latest economic data.
Little Things Can Matter Big
France had record turnout. The US may have record low turnout
Let’s hypothesize for a moment that Biden stays in (not my take), and his polls crash. What do voters do?
Perhaps we see double digit numbers for Trump and a red wave if voters decide to “send a message” and vote for Kennedy (or not vote at all).
It’s possible abortion matters. Foot-in-mouth disease by Trump may also matter.
Really Big Things
No one knows what will happen, especially if Biden drops out. That’s a major thing, not a little one.
Biden dropping out is my base case. So, however remote, please think of this possibility: A Harris-Kennedy ticket.
We do not know now how voters would react. If you think that ticket is impossible, then pick another Harris-X ticket that Trump might struggle with.
How Should Trump React?
The lesson for Trump is that he needs to be prepared for anything.
The worst choice for Trump would be to pick from the group of old white MAGA men, MAGA men in general, and staunch anti-abortion advocates like Senator Scott.
Everyone of Trump’s now presumed short list in that group expect perhaps Marco Rubio, but Rubio is far from ideal.
For discussion, please see Marco Rubio Suddenly Emerges on Trump’s Short VP List, Why?
Tulsi Gabbard Rings All Six Bells
Tusli is a woman, young, an amazing speaker, not MAGA, a person of color, and a moderate on abortion. She’s also attractive which may matter to a lot of men.
She rings six of six bells.
I believe Trump would win in a landslide if he picked Gabbard. The base would not like that pick, but so what? Is Trump seeking adulation or does he want to win?
I seriously don’t know.
Scott ticks precisely one bell. He’s black, Otherwise, Scott is all negative. I would be surprised if Trump was foolish enough to pick Scott.
I fail to see what Vance brings to the table. Perhaps I am missing something, but Vance is a negative for at least 5 reasons.
Anything Can Happen
To handle the most cases, it would behoove Trump to pick a VP candidate not that the core wants, but that moderates, women, and independents can rally around.
How Long Can This Go On?
That’s an amazing burst of energy, is it not? Is there any reason to believe such remarkable energy cannot last for for another four months?
The Senate Joins In
My Base Case Remains: Biden Drops Out
For discussion, please see How Long Before Biden Drops Out or Is Forced Out of the Election?
It’s fair to disagree. After all, Biden says he is staying in.
On the other hand … Forgive me for asking, but how much faith are you willing to put in a senile liar capable of saying anything?
So, no matter what odds you place, they are not zero. Nor are they under 25 percent. Trump needs to counter any hypothetical ticket democrats can offer.
That means a woman, younger, abortion-moderate, and likable. Will Trump do that?
I highly doubt it. Few get the message. Fewer still are willing to act on the message. This election isn’t over, especially if Biden drops out as I expect.
https://www.ibtimes.com/french-left-blasts-macron-demands-keys-govt-3736606
I am so disgusted by both parties and the establishment in general. It amazes me either side wants to pander to their ‘base’? How many people does this ‘represent’? I feel like there are 300 million Americans in the middle, like myself, who aren’t being represented by any of these clowns. Maybe this is because they can’t promise me something which belongs to someone else, the only true function of government of any stripe. Sad.
Correction: Labour in UK claims to be anti-immigration, while in fact they’ll increase facilitation and funding of the ongoing full-scale invasion. France and the UK are lost. So too several other countries in Europe. Absent violent revolution to repeal invaders, Europe is continuing its rich history of changing borders and ruling occupiers. History is very clear on what’s required; there’s no way to vote out of it, and virtually zero chance of salvation by any method for domestic populations.
Lots going in France behind the scenes. It seems old parties are breaking apart and forming new parties out of the pieces. The united Left seems not so united anymore and pieces of the Right allied to Le Pen but not in the party seem to be pulling away.
Tactical voting explained is in the first round, you vote for the party you love. In the second round you vote against the party you hate. You can only do this when you have two rounds and the US and GB don’t so it is hard to make direct comparisons.
Have the old parties realized they are becoming a province of islam?
Asking for a friend.
The donors will make money off a Trump win. They generally do not care. The DNC would rather lose than have Kennedy on the ticket. He is a threat to their scumball money. Centrists, politically, are just corporatists which is why they are losing everywhere. Hence the extremes. Just like Weimar Germany, corrupt politician mismanagement.and a radical arises
I cringe at the thought of Gavin becoming our new overlord.
How about a Kennedy-Gabbard ticket?
What difference would that make? Kennedy isn’t going to win. He’s just going to split the vote.
The polls are rigged -they don’t even ask his name in polls just “third party” and don’t forget green party is getting a lot of votes because of Biden’s support for Israel. The Democrats are too big and too vast to control and fracture constantly.
At the end of the day, Biden being out of the picture is the best result. Either by vote or by replacement
Biden winning the Democrat primaries was completely rigged for him.
I love it. They own him. And every Democratic voter does too.
When a large Tree falls upon a House it will break thru the Ridge, take out some Rafters, bust the Sheathing and create a hole in the roofing system that kept Natures elements off the heads of the residents.
I am not in a position to speak for what if anything just happened in France or the UK and if there is a lesson to be applied to United States.
Macron in France may claim he was the Center, however excluding one third of the citizenry from a voice means he was really only just another wing of the Left.
In the US there are now a goodly segment of people who considered themselves lifelong Democrats. They believed they were the chosen ones to lead all the lesser endowed into that promised Land called the Future.
They now realize they got caught up in their own superiority complex and just got treated as suckers and played for fools. This has been accomplished by a man and the party that backed that man. Lot of bruised egos and some contriteness even, just got served up.
This as consequence of the Tree called fracture having just landed upon the House formerly known as Democrat party.
One result is these same people now realize they do not have much legitimacy by excluding and intentionally disenfranchising a solid portion of the US population.
Trump is moving towards the center and will continue down that road. The center he is offering is not the center such as Macron represents which like in the US is just another aspect of the Left.
Can people swallow their pride and support someone like Trump. It has been happening already as many are understanding the Party they identified with does not represent their own moral convictions any more.
In this regard Trump is putting Center back into the dialogue as a balance rather then an exclusion zone.
Give the Voters what they asked for, need, and have been clamoring for decades for!
Honesty (rarely seen, but Lies are prevalent), Integrity (fleeting if not nearly gone completely), Promises (simply kept), A real plan (not some 15-30 Year Plan they can’t accomplish, because they will be gone by then), ETC…
France…Bring back King Louie
Great Britain…Bring back Queen Victoria
USA…Bring back George Washington ” It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliance with any portion of the foreign world. “
the Populist Right garnered the most votes in both the UK & France elections (and also Italy and The Netherlands, btw).
The Lesson(s):
() the Populist Right is ASCENDING.
() governing from the center has become untenable/impossible
() establishment power is eroding very quickly
it is safe to say that ‘establishment’ power has diminished to a multi-generational low… the gentry, the elites, the powers-that-be have less influence/power now than any time since before WWI. note the rise in lawlessness/anarchy & the collapse of credentialed status.
the status quo (traditions, systems, assumptions) that we inherited from the prior century is obviously collapsing.
Yep. The populist Right is ascending. Whatever that actually means in reality (because it represents hundreds of divergent views and is not cohesive at all). Maybe they will eventually win. And then f*ck things up even worse as they argue about what to actually do; deport immigrants, ban tourists, eliminate science education, ban vaccines, reshore everything, build walls, ban travel, etc. There are a lot of “interesting” populist policies out there.
My take on UK and France (and US): no matter who wins we get the same shit: The “Rules Based (dis)Order” instigating wars and color revolutions throughout the world, roping more far-flung and insignificant countries into NATO (who’s next Vanuatu?) while the other 85% of the world comes together to oppose the would-be global hegemon.
Thumbs up for the ‘Vanuatu’ mention.
Elections in France and the UK show how hard it is to govern, and how quickly the population gets tired of the government. Because people are stupid enough to think that whoever gets elected will make their life better. Then they get upset when it doesn’t happen. But governments can’t make your life better. Only you can do that.
It doesn’t matter who wins an election in the US or in these countries. It is almost impossible to effectively deal with the problems that face these governments.
Many here are upset with our current government. They will also be upset with the next government. And the one after that. Until they finally learn that the government cannot make their life better.
Better to focus your attention on improving your own life, rather than on politics.
Very much agree with you on this. People will vote then bitch and moan when things don’t work out the way they were told (i.e. they were lied to). Rinse and repeat. It’s amazing to me that people are gullible enough to be constantly duped into believing that one person or a small group of people can make thier life better. They sit and wait…and wait…..and wait….and get angry….and wait some more. It’s truely amazing to watch.
Take Papa’s advice. Don’t waste your time screwing around with these string pullers. They have always existed and will always exist.
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
H.L. Mencken
I think govts can make things better in the long run by committing to balance budgets, lower debt, but ordinary folks need to understand it will probably cause a withdrawal period that while challenging but for many, will ultimately save a nation from collapse. It’s just the big money interests that want to keep the plates spinning, ignoring the long term damage it is doing, will try to gaslight the public through their media propaganda that austerity will cause chaos. The ordinary citizens need to realize these lies of the wealthy that the system will “blow up” without another “liquidity” bail out.
Correct. And if explained properly there is a much better chance people will accept that outcome.
Nope. The vast majority of people will NOT accept that outcome. Very few people are willing to sacrifice for others or cooperate for the common good.
Tell a hundred farmers that the aquifer they all depend on is in danger of running out, and they will all agree to reduce their water consumption by 50% for the good of the group. The next day, most of them increase their consumption by 50%, fearing that others are doing that exact thing and they don’t want to be left high and dry. Without a verification system in place, people resort to “me first. Human nature.
I think there are cases where a nation has united for its survival and to defeat evil in the world. For example, people rationed and even volunteered their life and limb to fight in WW2. I feel like our debt carries the same risk and people don’t have to go into combat in this case, just live more frugally.
Yep. War is typically the rare exception. People will react to an immediate threat and work together. Which is the key. Immediate threats get the attention.
But longer-term threats, like growing debt levels, or global warming get kicked down the road, over and over again. Neither will be effectively dealt with.
People also say that they are going to commit to start their diet and exercise regime tomorrow. But they don’t.
And everyone in opposition commits to balanced budgets; until they get elected. Then they spend like crazy.
It’s not going to change.
Look after yourself. Because government won’t.
Papa, your spot on all the way through this scenario!
I agree totally that “Very few people are willing to sacrifice for others or cooperate for the common good” it’s called life, and looking out for yourself, which I also totally agree with!
Your Farmers example was perfect, to illustrate what a Village does, as they look out for one another. The U.S. is far from a village, and way too many people to be able to work together for any good, common or not. It’s just not possible to do so at that level of people, land, issues, differences etc. I agree it’s human nature or engrained “Survival Mode”
War is another topic all together and doesn’t meet the above criteria. In War Everyone’s Country is in danger, so we are all on the same page, or should be! It’s easy to draw the masses together when extinction is the option they are left with, if they don’t comply.
However, your diet, exercise examples are again perfect to illustrate “what people say and do” are very different in many cases. Proof is in the actions, but too late if they committed and don’t show up. In a diet you gain weight, but in a war you die!
To get elected most, but not all, Politicians tell you what you want to hear, so they get elected. Ex. Interest Rates, Taxes, Energy, Food, Auto Cost as ex. I recall when Interest Rates were practically zero%, taxes were going down, food was very affordable and everyone was going to own an EV, Solar Panels, and Windmills, until they weren’t that is…
Truer words are very hard to find: “Look after yourself. Because government won’t”
Pro Hamas won in France. Gabriel Attal might resign as France first gay PM. He nominated his ex lover Stephane Sejourne, who grew up in Madrid, as minister of Europe foreign affairs, kicking him to the upper corner. Mbappe and Dembele were ineffective. Conclusion : Iran is behind the Pro Hamas protests creating chaos during Macron’s and Biden’s election. That’s the common denominator.
Many folks here will tell you that Soros is controlling everything. Perhaps, he also controls Hamas. There are cult conspiracy kooks everywhere!
In France they have their antifa too and they are aligned with the far-left just as in the US because they have the same origins in the European communist parties of the 1920’s and 30’s and were controlled by guess who? Russia. Some things never change.
So anybody opposed to wanton (or purposeful) killing of tens of thousands of Gazan civilians including women and children is “pro-Hamas”. Bullshit.
A few months ago my wife asked me who I thought Trump should pick for VP. I answered Gabbart. Good to see that I was not alone.
Elon Musk: ‘When combined with mail-in ballots, the system is *designed* to make it impossible to prove fraud.”
What mo pne ever brings up with regards to 2020, Biden stated that he (DNC) had 1,000 lawyers available to challenge voting results. Biden was not going to accept an unfavorable outcome without a major fight.
He accidentally committed candor here:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MA8a2g6tTp0&pp=ygUWQmlkZW4gYmVzdCB2b3RlciBmcmF1ZA%3D%3D
At least in France the results are true ones so the voters can only blame themselves and they do.
At least Jimmy Carter knows all the church hymns. He didn’t get the insert at Poppy’s send-off, however.
UK elections were pretty clear. After 14 years of transferring wealth to the Tories/Republicans, the average UK subject had had enough.
Labor only got 34% of the vote, but, yeah, the Conservatives have definitely proven themselves to worthless pieces of crap. Too bad the UK is a vassal state supplicating and humiliating itself to DC. Castrati.
..So they elected the exact same guys; with the exact same policies (Blair……); who will continue doing the exact same thing. Just under a slightly different banner.
And then, the dupes will be just as mad next time; wondering why the Chinese, Russians, Iranians what have you; are all just running away from them without even trying…
Elect younger candidates
After witnessing the big steal in 2020, I agree that anything can happen. BTW, Pollsters please stop running Trump v Biden poll numbers. Biden ain’t runnin’
Please tell me that video of Biden in church is a cheap fake. 😉
Trump has Burgum as one of his top picks.
Burgum is a NetZero Proponent!!!!!
I mean wow
I am not voting Trump anyway, I will be voting Kennedy but just wow
NetZero == Mass Murder and is the opposite of his energy policy.
The lesson from Europe is, democracy schmemocracy.
Reform UK got WAY WAY WAY fewer seats than the number of votes it got, at 4 million
Same with Le Pen’s party though not as extreme
The other thing unsaid here is that the Security State Blob I am afraid DOES intervene in vote counting. And they have had 2 elections now to perfect it, while there may have been a few legal changes that might impair their ability to do so. And they cannot control everywhere for all the 435 House seats and the 33 or 34 Senate seats
Still it seems likely they will intervene and use abortion as their cover story to nullify any red wave as they did plausibly in 2022 but against all probabilities and statistical models, same as 2020
If Trump picks Burgum he might win one of those Dakotas.
As if a Trump VP really has a say.
Once the “CIA” assassinates Trump he does
If Trump is smart, and listens to the independent podverse..Tulsi is the correct pick.
Full disclosure: Voted for Trump twice, but Ron Paul and Ross Perot in previous elections…so I am not a “MAGA Trumper”.
I liked Ron Paul. In my opinion, he was the only person in Washington that knew our fiscal deficits would be the eventual demise of our country. My favorite quote from some unknown…”You can’t bullshit math”
Ron Paul should have taken credit for the “racist” newsletters. They were factual.
With all that exist and goes on in the world, you’d think it would be easy to write about more than 2 overgeneralized topics over and over and over.
Mish knows how to read the room. People cannot get enough of the bumbling, stumbling and crumbling Biden.
He’s known as “crack n crumble Joe” in Scranton. It’s the sound his bones make as he walks.
Mish is just in it for the clicks/$ at this point. Look at me, sending a few more his way…
I consider it infotainment at this point, rather than actionable analysis. Which is a shame but good on Mish for capitalizing on the crazies I guess.
Yup, I’ve noticed that political posts often get 4 times or more of the comments that economic do here. I chuckle every time I see it. People never change. Politics is the new religion and national past time.