Month in, month out, recession or not, there has been a strong uptick in the number of healthcare and education jobs. Until now. A few charts will show what I mean.
Education and Health Services Employment 1990-Present
It’s hard to tell much from that picture other than things look very rosy. Let’s have a look in percentage terms.
Education and Health Services Employment Percent Change
Now let’s hone in on the past year.
Education and Health Services Employment 2013-Present
No Growth!
Education and Health Services Employment Monthly Change in Thousands
The chart appears as if there were several instances of negative numbers in 2003, but a download of the actual data shows the only other negative number in the entire series of data dating back to 1990 occurred in 2003-07-01.
I strongly suspect 2003 was affected by a number of teachers strikes. I could find examples in the Chicago area and in Washington State. I bet there were others. Here is a link regarding Washington: School Board Sues to End Teacher Strike.
Month-to-Month Table (in Thousands)
| Date | Change From Previous Month |
|---|---|
| 1990-01-01 | #N/A |
| 1990-02-01 | 36.3 |
| 1990-03-01 | 41.9 |
| 1990-04-01 | 32.6 |
| 1990-05-01 | 37.4 |
| 1990-06-01 | 40.1 |
| 1990-07-01 | 32.5 |
| 1990-08-01 | 34.3 |
| 1990-09-01 | 32.6 |
| 1990-10-01 | 31.7 |
| 1990-11-01 | 28.6 |
| 1990-12-01 | 35.0 |
| 1991-01-01 | 44.6 |
| 1991-02-01 | 30.6 |
| 1991-03-01 | 32.9 |
| 1991-04-01 | 34.0 |
| 1991-05-01 | 20.5 |
| 1991-06-01 | 45.6 |
| 1991-07-01 | 28.8 |
| 1991-08-01 | 39.7 |
| 1991-09-01 | 32.9 |
| 1991-10-01 | 29.8 |
| 1991-11-01 | 25.3 |
| 1991-12-01 | 37.0 |
| 1992-01-01 | 31.7 |
| 1992-02-01 | 21.2 |
| 1992-03-01 | 20.3 |
| 1992-04-01 | 22.4 |
| 1992-05-01 | 23.5 |
| 1992-06-01 | 25.2 |
| 1992-07-01 | 26.6 |
| 1992-08-01 | 16.7 |
| 1992-09-01 | 20.8 |
| 1992-10-01 | 30.4 |
| 1992-11-01 | 33.1 |
| 1992-12-01 | 23.7 |
| 1993-01-01 | 25.8 |
| 1993-02-01 | 26.4 |
| 1993-03-01 | 14.9 |
| 1993-04-01 | 30.2 |
| 1993-05-01 | 33.7 |
| 1993-06-01 | 23.9 |
| 1993-07-01 | 20.0 |
| 1993-08-01 | 23.2 |
| 1993-09-01 | 31.0 |
| 1993-10-01 | 22.5 |
| 1993-11-01 | 16.1 |
| 1993-12-01 | 16.1 |
| 1994-01-01 | 21.7 |
| 1994-02-01 | 15.7 |
| 1994-03-01 | 33.2 |
| 1994-04-01 | 27.8 |
| 1994-05-01 | 21.1 |
| 1994-06-01 | 21.4 |
| 1994-07-01 | 29.0 |
| 1994-08-01 | 25.6 |
| 1994-09-01 | 20.0 |
| 1994-10-01 | 20.2 |
| 1994-11-01 | 17.4 |
| 1994-12-01 | 26.4 |
| 1995-01-01 | 20.4 |
| 1995-02-01 | 29.6 |
| 1995-03-01 | 27.3 |
| 1995-04-01 | 17.9 |
| 1995-05-01 | 13.7 |
| 1995-06-01 | 29.7 |
| 1995-07-01 | 21.5 |
| 1995-08-01 | 28.4 |
| 1995-09-01 | 24.6 |
| 1995-10-01 | 20.1 |
| 1995-11-01 | 28.3 |
| 1995-12-01 | 26.5 |
| 1996-01-01 | 3.7 |
| 1996-02-01 | 39.4 |
| 1996-03-01 | 29.2 |
| 1996-04-01 | 21.5 |
| 1996-05-01 | 25.5 |
| 1996-06-01 | 23.9 |
| 1996-07-01 | 21.0 |
| 1996-08-01 | 18.7 |
| 1996-09-01 | 22.7 |
| 1996-10-01 | 24.1 |
| 1996-11-01 | 25.9 |
| 1996-12-01 | 18.3 |
| 1997-01-01 | 29.3 |
| 1997-02-01 | 17.8 |
| 1997-03-01 | 21.9 |
| 1997-04-01 | 29.1 |
| 1997-05-01 | 26.1 |
| 1997-06-01 | 7.5 |
| 1997-07-01 | 24.7 |
| 1997-08-01 | 12.6 |
| 1997-09-01 | 15.7 |
| 1997-10-01 | 20.8 |
| 1997-11-01 | 16.7 |
| 1997-12-01 | 26.4 |
| 1998-01-01 | 4.4 |
| 1998-02-01 | 10.4 |
| 1998-03-01 | 11.4 |
| 1998-04-01 | 12.6 |
| 1998-05-01 | 19.4 |
| 1998-06-01 | 12.4 |
| 1998-07-01 | 6.7 |
| 1998-08-01 | 12.2 |
| 1998-09-01 | 18.7 |
| 1998-10-01 | 15.1 |
| 1998-11-01 | 10.9 |
| 1998-12-01 | 10.2 |
| 1999-01-01 | 3.4 |
| 1999-02-01 | 24.4 |
| 1999-03-01 | 14.2 |
| 1999-04-01 | 19.7 |
| 1999-05-01 | 5.4 |
| 1999-06-01 | 9.5 |
| 1999-07-01 | 11.1 |
| 1999-08-01 | 13.0 |
| 1999-09-01 | 5.4 |
| 1999-10-01 | 12.9 |
| 1999-11-01 | 13.8 |
| 1999-12-01 | 11.7 |
| 2000-01-01 | 13.1 |
| 2000-02-01 | 12.0 |
| 2000-03-01 | 10.7 |
| 2000-04-01 | 8.9 |
| 2000-05-01 | 15.0 |
| 2000-06-01 | 19.5 |
| 2000-07-01 | 28.0 |
| 2000-08-01 | 22.1 |
| 2000-09-01 | 25.0 |
| 2000-10-01 | 17.7 |
| 2000-11-01 | 18.4 |
| 2000-12-01 | 30.3 |
| 2001-01-01 | 36.8 |
| 2001-02-01 | 33.7 |
| 2001-03-01 | 28.0 |
| 2001-04-01 | 27.4 |
| 2001-05-01 | 29.7 |
| 2001-06-01 | 41.3 |
| 2001-07-01 | 38.3 |
| 2001-08-01 | 32.5 |
| 2001-09-01 | 25.2 |
| 2001-10-01 | 28.5 |
| 2001-11-01 | 27.1 |
| 2001-12-01 | 33.1 |
| 2002-01-01 | 31.4 |
| 2002-02-01 | 30.1 |
| 2002-03-01 | 27.8 |
| 2002-04-01 | 24.5 |
| 2002-05-01 | 17.9 |
| 2002-06-01 | 21.2 |
| 2002-07-01 | 20.5 |
| 2002-08-01 | 35.3 |
| 2002-09-01 | 45.5 |
| 2002-10-01 | 28.8 |
| 2002-11-01 | 28.6 |
| 2002-12-01 | 13.2 |
| 2003-01-01 | 25.4 |
| 2003-02-01 | 22.9 |
| 2003-03-01 | 21.9 |
| 2003-04-01 | 30.5 |
| 2003-05-01 | 23.2 |
| 2003-06-01 | 19.9 |
| 2003-07-01 | -9.0 |
| 2003-08-01 | 18.2 |
| 2003-09-01 | 13.7 |
| 2003-10-01 | 23.0 |
| 2003-11-01 | 18.7 |
| 2003-12-01 | 27.0 |
| 2004-01-01 | 17.5 |
| 2004-02-01 | 8.8 |
| 2004-03-01 | 36.6 |
| 2004-04-01 | 30.2 |
| 2004-05-01 | 25.2 |
| 2004-06-01 | 15.7 |
| 2004-07-01 | 15.6 |
| 2004-08-01 | 18.8 |
| 2004-09-01 | 15.7 |
| 2004-10-01 | 31.9 |
| 2004-11-01 | 17.3 |
| 2004-12-01 | 20.0 |
| 2005-01-01 | 8.5 |
| 2005-02-01 | 24.2 |
| 2005-03-01 | 15.7 |
| 2005-04-01 | 25.5 |
| 2005-05-01 | 29.4 |
| 2005-06-01 | 30.2 |
| 2005-07-01 | 35.5 |
| 2005-08-01 | 23.0 |
| 2005-09-01 | 21.9 |
| 2005-10-01 | 10.9 |
| 2005-11-01 | 26.1 |
| 2005-12-01 | 13.6 |
| 2006-01-01 | 32.2 |
| 2006-02-01 | 22.9 |
| 2006-03-01 | 30.3 |
| 2006-04-01 | 15.0 |
| 2006-05-01 | 23.0 |
| 2006-06-01 | 22.2 |
| 2006-07-01 | 29.2 |
| 2006-08-01 | 21.5 |
| 2006-09-01 | 33.0 |
| 2006-10-01 | 24.5 |
| 2006-11-01 | 27.2 |
| 2006-12-01 | 38.8 |
| 2007-01-01 | 22.9 |
| 2007-02-01 | 30.4 |
| 2007-03-01 | 26.1 |
| 2007-04-01 | 36.8 |
| 2007-05-01 | 26.0 |
| 2007-06-01 | 38.1 |
| 2007-07-01 | 26.8 |
| 2007-08-01 | 34.8 |
| 2007-09-01 | 32.9 |
| 2007-10-01 | 28.7 |
| 2007-11-01 | 17.0 |
| 2007-12-01 | 27.2 |
| 2008-01-01 | 35.1 |
| 2008-02-01 | 28.0 |
| 2008-03-01 | 30.6 |
| 2008-04-01 | 35.6 |
| 2008-05-01 | 26.2 |
| 2008-06-01 | 24.9 |
| 2008-07-01 | 31.1 |
| 2008-08-01 | 22.2 |
| 2008-09-01 | 13.4 |
| 2008-10-01 | 19.2 |
| 2008-11-01 | 27.8 |
| 2008-12-01 | 23.3 |
| 2009-01-01 | 13.6 |
| 2009-02-01 | 24.3 |
| 2009-03-01 | 7.1 |
| 2009-04-01 | 10.6 |
| 2009-05-01 | 32.3 |
| 2009-06-01 | 25.8 |
| 2009-07-01 | 17.6 |
| 2009-08-01 | 20.1 |
| 2009-09-01 | 21.4 |
| 2009-10-01 | 25.3 |
| 2009-11-01 | 19.5 |
| 2009-12-01 | 16.6 |
| 2010-01-01 | 15.8 |
| 2010-02-01 | 16.0 |
| 2010-03-01 | 32.8 |
| 2010-04-01 | 11.9 |
| 2010-05-01 | 15.6 |
| 2010-06-01 | 17.4 |
| 2010-07-01 | 18.8 |
| 2010-08-01 | 24.1 |
| 2010-09-01 | 8.5 |
| 2010-10-01 | 27.1 |
| 2010-11-01 | 26.3 |
| 2010-12-01 | 26.8 |
| 2011-01-01 | 2.8 |
| 2011-02-01 | 17.0 |
| 2011-03-01 | 28.7 |
| 2011-04-01 | 30.0 |
| 2011-05-01 | 13.8 |
| 2011-06-01 | 29.0 |
| 2011-07-01 | 25.5 |
| 2011-08-01 | 27.4 |
| 2011-09-01 | 31.1 |
| 2011-10-01 | 16.6 |
| 2011-11-01 | 6.5 |
| 2011-12-01 | 8.4 |
| 2012-01-01 | 28.6 |
| 2012-02-01 | 32.0 |
| 2012-03-01 | 24.0 |
| 2012-04-01 | 12.9 |
| 2012-05-01 | 31.2 |
| 2012-06-01 | 9.1 |
| 2012-07-01 | 14.4 |
| 2012-08-01 | 10.7 |
| 2012-09-01 | 33.8 |
| 2012-10-01 | 26.4 |
| 2012-11-01 | 17.6 |
| 2012-12-01 | 27.5 |
| 2013-01-01 | 5.3 |
| 2013-02-01 | 23.1 |
| 2013-03-01 | 11.1 |
| 2013-04-01 | 29.7 |
| 2013-05-01 | 12.9 |
| 2013-06-01 | 17.1 |
| 2013-07-01 | 4.1 |
| 2013-08-01 | 43.2 |
| 2013-09-01 | 2.7 |
| 2013-10-01 | 22.8 |
| 2013-11-01 | 29.6 |
| 2013-12-01 | 2.4 |
| 2014-01-01 | -0.4 |
Back-to-back poor months, the last one negative, do not make a trend. Looking ahead, if this is a start of a new trend, it rates to be very ominous for the employment picture.
For more on the latest jobs data, please see Nonfarm Payrolls +113,000, Median Bloomberg Estimate 180,000; Huge March 2013 Employment Revision
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
