Can a Democrat Win the Alaska Senate Race?

Yes. It’s what I expect. Let’s discuss why.

To Hell With Politics, Put Alaska First

That is one hell of a slogan.

You can watch her video here.

Key Video Points

• “No one in the lower 48 will save us.”
• “Systemic change is the only way to bring down grocery prices”
• “Ted Stevens often said to hell with politics. put Alaska first. It’s about time Alaskans teach the rest of the country.”

On Energy

“Alaska has always been a leader in energy production, and as an independent voice for Alaskans, I will always stand up to anyone to invest in Alaska energy production so that we can create good-paying jobs and lower energy costs. As DC price hikes create an energy catastrophe for Alaskans, we can’t afford more delays, political gridlock, or one-size-fits-all rules from the Lower 48 that leave Alaskans without solutions. With buy-in from communities on the ground, I will fight to invest in Alaska energy so we can bring down energy costs, grow our economy, and build real opportunities for the next generation of Alaskans.”

– Mary Peltola

Energy prices for Alaskans are out of control, and we need solutions from every angle. Mary has always been a champion for Alaska energy, consistently standing up to anyone – including Joe Biden – to promote oil and gas development, secure approval of the Willow Oil Project, bring down costs, and create good-paying Alaska energy jobs. In the U.S. Senate, she will fight to lower Alaskans’ energy costs by modernizing energy infrastructure, pushing through meaningful permitting reform, and working alongside local communities to ensure the benefits of Alaska resources stay in Alaska.

Those snips are from her website MaryPeltola.Com

Betting Markets

The betting markets have picked up on this. Mainstream media hasn’t.

Kalshi has Mary Peltoa at 68 percent, and has been above 60 percent most of the year.

Polymarket has Mary Peltoa at a new high 73 percent.

Senate Balance of Power

Note that the Polymarket Senate Balance of Power has been fluctuating closely with the odds of Mary Peltola winning Alaska.

Nate Silver Deluxe Model Alaska

Nate Silver’s deluxe model has Peltoa the underdog. I don’t buy it.

I suspect his model thinks Alaska is a red state so it stacked the deck for Sullivan.

Silver’s Classic model also has Sullivan the favorite. However, his polls-only Lite model has a Peltola a 57.1 percent favorite.

I think Silver’s models have messed up here.

Peltola has an excellent slogan, sounds like a Republican on fishing and energy, and has a big advantage in Alaska’s ranked voting system.

In Alaska’s ranked voting system, three Republicans are running, two of them have the same name, There are two Dan Sullivan candidates on the ballot, one of them is the incumbent Senator.

Sullivan trails Peltola in Alaska Senate contest: AARP poll

The Hill reports Sullivan trails Peltola in Alaska Senate contest: AARP poll

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) trails former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) by 5 percentage points in the Alaska Senate race, according to a new poll.

An AARP poll conducted by pollsters Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research released Thursday showed Peltola ahead of the GOP senator at 46 percent support to his 41 percent, with 7 percent of respondents undecided.

A separate 4 percent of respondents supported Dan J. Sullivan Jr., who’s listed on the ballot as having no party affiliation, and 3 percent supported Republican Gerald Heikes.

When voters were asked whom they would choose as their second and third picks, Peltola maintains an edge in both rounds. Asked about a second pick, 50 percent of respondents said they would support the former House member while 43 percent rated the senator as their next pick. 

Asked about a third choice, Peltola received 51 percent support while Sen. Sullivan received 45 percent.  

Peltola performs 26 points better than Sullivan and the two other challengers among voters between the ages of 18 and 49, and she leads the senator by 32 points among independents and 18 points among women. Peltola also boasts higher enthusiasm among Democrats — 91 percent — compared with Sullivan’s performance among Republicans, which sits at 83 percent.

Meanwhile, Sullivan performs better with voters aged 50 years and older by 7 points, voters aged 65 and older by 8 points and men by 6 points.

Sullivan is fighting for a third term in the upper chamber against Peltola, who made headlines in 2022 when she defeated former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) to become the first Democrat in more than 50 years to win Alaska’s House seat during a special election.

Democrats see a strong recruit in Peltola — a rare Democrat to win statewide in the traditionally Republican state. Still, the state’s red leanings and Sullivan’s incumbency will make it an uphill battle for the party. 

The AARP was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research between Sept. 8-11, with 800 likely voters surveyed overall. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.  

Serious Republican Uphill Battle

The Hill repeats the red state uphill battle meme for Alaska. It’s an uphill battle alright, for Sullivan.

I have Alaska as lean-to-likely for Democrats. That changes the Senate flipping odds quite a bit.

If Democrats pick up a seat in Alaska, North Carolina (a given), and Maine, they only need one out of Ohio, Iowa, and Texas.

The betting markets and Nate Silver all have Ohio, Maine, and Texas as lean or tilt Democrat.

Moreover, Republicans now have some concerns in Kansas and Nebraska. But I am discounting those, for now.

Putting all of this together, I am about 65 percent likely, at the moment, that Democrats take the House and Senate.

That estimate is a blend of Polymarket, Kalshi, and Nate Silver (but adjusting Silver for Alaska).

Republicans have the serious uphill battles despite the fact they can lose three seats and still hold.

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