Yes. It’s what I expect. Let’s discuss why.
To Hell With Politics, Put Alaska First
That is one hell of a slogan.
You can watch her video here.
Key Video Points
- “No one in the lower 48 will save us.”
- “Systemic change is the only way to bring down grocery prices”
- “Ted Stevens often said to hell with politics. put Alaska first. It’s about time Alaskans teach the rest of the country.”
On Energy
“Alaska has always been a leader in energy production, and as an independent voice for Alaskans, I will always stand up to anyone to invest in Alaska energy production so that we can create good-paying jobs and lower energy costs. As DC price hikes create an energy catastrophe for Alaskans, we can’t afford more delays, political gridlock, or one-size-fits-all rules from the Lower 48 that leave Alaskans without solutions. With buy-in from communities on the ground, I will fight to invest in Alaska energy so we can bring down energy costs, grow our economy, and build real opportunities for the next generation of Alaskans.”
– Mary Peltola
Energy prices for Alaskans are out of control, and we need solutions from every angle. Mary has always been a champion for Alaska energy, consistently standing up to anyone – including Joe Biden – to promote oil and gas development, secure approval of the Willow Oil Project, bring down costs, and create good-paying Alaska energy jobs. In the U.S. Senate, she will fight to lower Alaskans’ energy costs by modernizing energy infrastructure, pushing through meaningful permitting reform, and working alongside local communities to ensure the benefits of Alaska resources stay in Alaska.
Those snips are from her website MaryPeltola.Com
Betting Markets
The betting markets have picked up on this. Mainstream media hasn’t.
Kalshi has Mary Peltoa at 68 percent, and has been above 60 percent most of the year.
Polymarket has Mary Peltoa at a new high 73 percent.
Senate Balance of Power
Note that the Polymarket Senate Balance of Power has been fluctuating closely with the odds of Mary Peltola winning Alaska.
Nate Silver Deluxe Model Alaska
Nate Silver’s deluxe model has Peltoa the underdog. I don’t buy it.
I suspect his model thinks Alaska is a red state so it stacked the deck for Sullivan.
Silver’s Classic model also has Sullivan the favorite. However, his polls-only Lite model has a Peltola a 57.1 percent favorite.
I think Silver’s models have messed up here.
Peltola has an excellent slogan, sounds like a Republican on fishing and energy, and has a big advantage in Alaska’s ranked voting system.
In Alaska’s ranked voting system, three Republicans are running, two of them have the same name, There are two Dan Sullivan candidates on the ballot, one of them is the incumbent Senator.
Sullivan trails Peltola in Alaska Senate contest: AARP poll
The Hill reports Sullivan trails Peltola in Alaska Senate contest: AARP poll
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) trails former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) by 5 percentage points in the Alaska Senate race, according to a new poll.
An AARP poll conducted by pollsters Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research released Thursday showed Peltola ahead of the GOP senator at 46 percent support to his 41 percent, with 7 percent of respondents undecided.
A separate 4 percent of respondents supported Dan J. Sullivan Jr., who’s listed on the ballot as having no party affiliation, and 3 percent supported Republican Gerald Heikes.
When voters were asked whom they would choose as their second and third picks, Peltola maintains an edge in both rounds. Asked about a second pick, 50 percent of respondents said they would support the former House member while 43 percent rated the senator as their next pick.
Asked about a third choice, Peltola received 51 percent support while Sen. Sullivan received 45 percent.
Peltola performs 26 points better than Sullivan and the two other challengers among voters between the ages of 18 and 49, and she leads the senator by 32 points among independents and 18 points among women. Peltola also boasts higher enthusiasm among Democrats — 91 percent — compared with Sullivan’s performance among Republicans, which sits at 83 percent.
Meanwhile, Sullivan performs better with voters aged 50 years and older by 7 points, voters aged 65 and older by 8 points and men by 6 points.
Sullivan is fighting for a third term in the upper chamber against Peltola, who made headlines in 2022 when she defeated former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) to become the first Democrat in more than 50 years to win Alaska’s House seat during a special election.
Democrats see a strong recruit in Peltola — a rare Democrat to win statewide in the traditionally Republican state. Still, the state’s red leanings and Sullivan’s incumbency will make it an uphill battle for the party.
The AARP was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research between Sept. 8-11, with 800 likely voters surveyed overall. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.
Serious Republican Uphill Battle
The Hill repeats the red state uphill battle meme for Alaska. It’s an uphill battle alright, for Sullivan.
I have Alaska as lean-to-likely for Democrats. That changes the Senate flipping odds quite a bit.
If Democrats pick up a seat in Alaska, North Carolina (a given), and Maine, they only need one out of Ohio, Iowa, and Texas.
The betting markets and Nate Silver all have Ohio, Maine, and Texas as lean or tilt Democrat.
Moreover, Republicans now have some concerns in Kansas and Nebraska. But I am discounting those, for now.
Putting all of this together, I am about 65 percent likely, at the moment, that Democrats take the House and Senate.
That estimate is a blend of Polymarket, Kalshi, and Nate Silver (but adjusting Silver for Alaska).
Republicans have the serious uphill battles despite the fact they can lose three seats and still hold.
Related Posts
September 17, 2026: Good News, 75 Percent Says Tariffs Important in Midterm Vote
Well, that’s good news, but for Democrats, not Republicans.
September 18, 2026: For the First Time, Kalshi Sees 52 Democrat Senate Seats
For those counting, that would be a pickup of five seats. Iowa on deck for six.
Alaska dem and nyc dem are two different things. Well see. But im all for middle of the road. Sometimes the answer is right sometime left.
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Ak has a problem with perma frost melting. I assume if it issues for housing it would be issue for oil infrastructure.
No matter what you do as a voter for either Political Party, it seems to be ignored by the Uniparty? At a recent vote to Eliminate— $3.3 billion in U.S. military assistance to Israel , it failed in July 2026.. The vote by the Democratic party side was 103 Dems. in favor of continued Military funding to Israel and only 98 Dems. against it ? This vote by most Democrat Politicians came even after Voter polls showed almost 75% of Democatic voters are against further Military funding to Israel? So voting Democrat did not stop Military funding to Israel? Both sides of the Uniparty appear willing to continue to fund the Military in Israel —-no matter what the majority of their Voters say they want.
Poll today: Hinojosa ahead of Abbott. It would be hilarious. Houses in my wealthy neighborhood would spontaneously combust.
I dont like Abbott, but Hinojosa, like Trump, is, doing the shameless, irresponsible vote buying thing, offering a $1,500 handout when the state is in debt, so they both are bad. Libertarian/third party is the only good option.
When polls indicate voters are willing to take the best ideas democrats and republicans have to offer, stable candidates will appear. For now a sufficient number of voters with polarized views have added up to a polarized society.
Be specific.
I will never use Kalshi or other prediction markets. As far as I know those markets are not regulated, and they can be easily gamed. Even if they are honest the money involved seems relatively small, and in a world of billionaires, spending 500k to push Kalshi’s dial might be worth it.
I cannot believe a majority of you think that the Two-Party system is in a “DEBATE.”
Nothing can be further from the truth. I am a REALIST, not a CYNIC. NOTHING has changed fundamentally from TRUMP to BIDEN and back to TRUMPCO.
It is insanity to keep doing the same thing over and over again (VOTING) and to expect different results.
Good grief, a huge number of things have changed. If a person voted for Trump in 2024, or voted 3rd party, or did not vote, that person voted for the vastly greater of two evils.
He’s got a valid point to the extent that we’d have a different but equally bad sh*t show with Kamala as president. I could easily see her being pushed into a war with Iran, although we would not have the tarrifs. God knows what unspecified calamity that idiot would have brought to our table.
It does seems the US creates some sort of global crisis every few years.
Ever wonder why the US was developing a doomsday virus with China in Wuhan? What was the point in that? I still don’t have an answer.
Not likely. Vastly better cabinet.
As I said very early on the Pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 most likely evolved naturally in Northern Laos. Not in China. America’s intelligence services are manned by people who are genuinely dumber than bricks.
The two factions involve some some different risks and payoffs, and some overlapping. I could write thousands of pages on what is different. And voting in successively different sides is different from one side persisting in power. It is, IMO, mentally lazy to simply equate these things. And if the same “insane” thing (‘VOTING”) is not a good solution, that does not make “NOT VOTING” a better choice.
So the problem is lazily defined here, and the alternatives posed are nonexistent.
“I could write a thousand pages”
(doesn’t list one thing)
Yes!
Alaskans are independent even Senator Murkowski a republican is actually somewhat liberal. American citizens are very angry about corruption wars bad economy and incompetence therefore will vote for change. So a democratic US senator from Alaska will be elected then Murkowski either switches parties or caucuses with the democrats. I do not follow polls too often but I speak to many people and the overwhelming majority want change.
A democrat may win and democrats may be running things entirely by 2028 but what will it matter?
Are democrats going to fix $40 trillion in debt?
Are democrats going to fix 80 million “consumers” of SS and Medicare?
Are democrats going to fix the demographic death spiral?
Are democrats going to fix inflation?
Are democrats going to improve quality of life for Americans?
Are democrats going to end wars?
I could go on but what will it matter? The only person that can fix all that is the person you see in the mirror. Eventually a few will wake up, the rest willl just grind away to nothin’ ….The old pareto principle kicks in, 20% get out with everything, 80% left holding the bag
And thats the whole story.
Bill Clinton fixed the deficit before leaving office. Democrats are happy to raise taxes to make SS & Medicare viable. Democrats are happy to let in enough immigrants to fix the demographic death spiral. Inflation was incredibly low under Obama. The quality of life was pretty high under Clinton. Joe Biden ended the war in Afghanistan.
So, maybe. Depends if Republicans stop them in the Senate.
And the antithesis here is your demorcrat “solutions” are republicans and likely the other half of Americans keyptonite. They dont want immigrants, they dont want higher taxes and Bill Clinton is nearly at death’s door.
The deeper issue was that nothing has been fixed, if it were we wouldnt be talking about $40 trillion in debt and other problems. Why didnt Clinton fix it all then? Why didnt 8 years of Obama?
I frequently post a yt video of Trump saying the economy runs better under democrats and I agree with Trump on that issue but we are way beyond economic problems now. Way beyond. We are at the endgame of kicking the can down the road, problems piling on exponentially now. 2030, set your clock.
Except, Republicans stood by and said barely a word in opposition when Trump imposed one of the largest tax increases in American history.
Tax cut to the wealthy (2025 legislation) with tax increase impacting relatively more on the less wealthy, who can’t hedge themselves (tariffs). Plus benefits cuts to less wealthy. So low end of retail and durable goods (car market) is withering.
The Peace Dividend following the collapse of the Soviet Union was a huge factor because government military spending was reduced. The free market reinvested those tax dollars into grow consumer technology such as the internet. Boomers were in their prime working years, and paying a lot of income taxes spread over many people.
There is no possibility of a tax increase in the next two years.
SCOTUS in explicitly tossing Trump’s 2025 tariffs said that was a tax. Trump threatens new tariffs daily. He doesn’t require congressional majorities, to order them. So I would say there is a big probability of increases in same (whether ultimately ruled constitutional or not).
First things first: 86-47/25!
So far they have not changed their mind on:
— Open borders.
— Free healthcare to illegal immigrants (they declared that on camera, all of them), but not to citizens.
— Free money or fake government jobs to immigrants to live without actually working (there are no jobs anyway).
— Higher capital gains tax (definitely), and tax on unrealized gains (maybe).
— Defund (at least partially) the police and reduce security measures (Seattle’s mayor has been doing that for the last few months, so it’s not just an old bad idea).
— Indirect declaration of Woke 2 (because “Woke 1 was crazy“).
— Pack the Supreme Court.
— On the DSA backburner, abolish the Senate and Presidency and make a Soviet System replica in its place.
— As far as all the rest, everybody is projecting their own desires to be fulfilled by the Democrats, as if it’s a customizable video game. For example, Mish gives the impression that he believes the current Democrats are, all of a sudden, straight-and-objective thinking moderates. Because of an ordinary political slogan in Alaska.
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P.S. In my opinion, you are NOT having a demographic crisis. It’s just a “back to normal” after the insane post-war baby boom. Young people can’t find jobs, so you don’t need unemployed immigrants either.
“ Young people can’t find jobs, so you don’t need unemployed immigrants either.”
There are plenty of jobs in farms picking crops but no one wants those jobs. Same for cleaning hotel rooms, cooks in fast food and on and on. There are huge opening job opening in the trades as most of those plumbers, electricians, etc are in their late 50s. Jobs are there but young people want to be influencers or wall street bankers or other easy money players.
They never did. Texas farmers, New Mexico farmers, Arizona farmers, and California farmers have been enticing Mexican AG workers to swim the Rio Grande/cross the border since the Alamo.
(i) Most crops nowadays are collected by machines.
(ii) Cooks in fast food used to be entry level for US citizens, and it’s about to get almost fully mechanized.
(iii) I don’t see why manual trades could not be taken by US citizens currently in the country (there’s a lively trend developing), instead of creating unfair competition against them via open borders. We’re all against H1-Bs, so why be in favor of that?
(iv) Employers who complain “I can’t find a welder“, in reality they mean “I can’t find a welder for one small project, once in a while, at a very low price“. Because they’re used to customized Amazon-style deliveries, and they think the same should apply for humans.
Employers shouldn’t be able to control society just because they want the entire world to be customized to their random needs. If I can’t find a plumper at exactly the time I need one, it doesn’t mean that I import a few millions “to be on stand-by”.
(v) The vast majority of immigrants in Europe are still unemployed after more of a decade, living on welfare. They are being used as voters. Search for the most recent scandal of doctors and nurses from India with fake degrees. Is that the basis of “free healthcare” they’re planning?
Incredible, all that bullshit and not one single citation to back it up. It’s an honor to meet you mister president.
— Democrats Say Health Plans Would Cover Undocumented Immigrants:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMSmoNOZJ9Y
— Google and YouTube for: machines in farming & machines in harvest & machines in crop collection. We’re not in the 1800s.
— Brussels Signal: Half of German welfare recipients non-citizens, data reveals https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/10/half-of-german-welfare-recipients-non-citizens-data-reveals/
and you can find tons of other sources too (ex. Record number of foreign-born benefit claimants: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/08/19/record-number-of-foreigners-claiming-benefits/– Also, AI says in summary: About 81% of Somali-headed households in Minnesota receive some form of means-tested welfare or public assistance, according to a report from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) utilizing U.S. Census Bureau data
“Most crops are picked”. Better do some research on that line. Current research says 40 to 45% of the vegetables are still handpicked and 40 to 45% of the fruits are handpicked. Let’s face it manual labor is just not the top of the list for most young people nowadays.
What will it matter? Ridiculous question. They will save the country from the unbridled Trump Presidency. For Trump to continue much of his lawlessness, he will have to order the US military to start shooting Americans. Not implausible. Project 2025 leaders hinted at the possibility.
@ Mish
I read your explanation re censorship and understand. You have enough on your plate.
For sake of completeness:
– I should have clarified I don’t mean “no filtering whatsoever” but “don’t filter URLs”. E.g., if the comment platform allows CNN and fox but not indi or perhaps mish talk, then switch.
– I would not be surprised whatsoever if the orgs behind the URL censorship promote their business by separately operating bot farms that try to post various slurs.
Was just testing and see the platform didn’t allow me to post CNN or fox as complete URLs. I should have tested that earlier, because this suggests even application of standards. And yet now I’m puzzled why I swear I’ve seen readers post links and yet I cannot…
Anyway, you explained your situation. I understand. Thanks.
This has been explained many times. Comments with more than ONE link automatically go into moderation. If you copy and paste and article, it likely has embedded links so you may think it is only one link but it may have 3 or more.
I have been here years and that is what causes comments to go into moderation. Some key words like profanity may also go into moderation although not always for some reason.
At this rate I would not be surprised if Republicans were voted out everywhere!
As a former Republican I am appalled at Trumps violations of the constitution, profiteering and disregard for the rule of law.
Same! I voted straight Republican tickets for decades. The last 3 presidential contacts I voted 3rd-party.
Due to Trump’s depredations I plan to go straight Dem tickets for a couple of elections until the Republicans recover some semblance of sanity.
Same here. I refuse to be associated with the trailer-park trash currently calling themselves Republicans.
Alaska is the one of biggest, if not the biggest, welfare states per capita in the nation. I don’t see how a snout sucking hard as heck on the government’s free money teat Republican can lose.
Alaska has a population of only 750,000.
Wow, I would not have thought it was so low!
Makes me tempted to move there so my vote counts!
Burrrrrrr!
So, 375,000 voters per Senator. My state has 20 million voters per Senator. So an Alaskan gets what, 107 times my influence on things like federal judges and legislation? And given the education levels and so on up there, one can imagine power is even more concentrated. Ditto Wyoming,etc. There was a constitutional reason stated (striking a deal between different sized states) for this, but it goes a long way toward explaining the yawning disparity in wealth and power, that has produced such outliers.
Don’t disagree. Much like Alabama, Mississippi and Arkansas. Nobody loves free money like Republican states.
Per Capita – yes. However, all three states combined receive ~ $356M/month in food stamps while California receives $1.045B/month. Interestingly those three states have a combined 20 electoral college votes while California has 54.
Mapped: The States Most Dependent on Food Stamps
Betting markets???? What happened to opinion polls? Or, are you saying, only the opinions of people with money matter and who the hell cares what the others think??!!
it would behoove you to think. What the hell is Nate silver but 85% polls
I followed Nate Silver in the 90s and 00s when he was an analyst of baseball statistics, then he veered off into politics. Baseball is a fairly simple game to analyze because it is mostly just a series of batter vs pitcher but there are some nuances like ballpark dimensions. Politics is fairly simple to analyze with polls but there are some things like Alaska
Nate Silver could be mostly polls. But not Polymarket, Kalshi etc.?! They are pure gambling, er, I mean, “prediction” outfits. And that is what you went with here for the most part. In fact, one of your previous posts went like, “Kalshi … Senate seats” or something like that.
I behoove you to think how representative of the population at large the few people betting online are.
People betting online may have other motives than winning cash in the end, such as producing the headlines we are addressing here. That is political advertising, and a pretty cheap version of it.
We shall see soon enough, if these polls and prediction market numbers come out right. I’m skeptical about both, but I would be first to admit any error on my part about it.
FSB and GRU are gonna hack the election in Republicans favor. Don’t say you werent warned. Republicans will simply cave to Putin and Trump.
The Russians broke mom’s lamp.
FSB and GRU would totally hack the election. But other people already beat them to it.
Why the hell would Russians care? They have a disaster war to manage and America is too dumb to be much of a rival to anyone. People will do anything but admit the USSR is over.
Well, there is that major Russian sanctions bill (dedicated to Lindsay Graham, a great backer of an open checkbook for Israel’s recent policies also) sitting on Trump’s desk.
Russian TV is full of references of trying to sow discord between US and EU (easy argument that has in fact come to pass with trump, whom they backed), and to sow discord inside the USA, which it perceives a crucial world player to manipulate or affect. Yesterday Vladimir Solovyov, the biggest anti-Europe Putin mouthpiece on there, was openly cheering Trump for messing up the US: “Trump is confidently moving forth to destroy America. Well done.” at 5:55 at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOG0VKaJ7xk
And that’s fine and dandy, they’re just not that powerful. As much as it makes vatniks seethe, Russia is currently eating the fruits of its fumbled invasion. Way too much so to rig elections and invade Europe with the manpower they no longer have. If your country has to kidnap troops from Africa and Korea, you are running out of troops. Not to mention the fact that they can’t actually pay troops pensions.
It’s funny how the boomer idea of Russia as this great big thing is now split between geriatrics who think they’re still powerful and evil and geriatrics who drank their Koolaid and think they’re powerful and benevolent. At the end of the day they are one thing predominantly: China’s bitch.
China logs their forests in Siberia with impunity, is basically their only external supplier of electronic components and materials, and gives them access to North Korea. Problem is, they’re happy to sell DJI drones to Ukraine too because it’s just business. It’s a Chinese world thanks to Trump, we’re just living in it.
The Mossad beat them to it.
You sound paranoid.
Vote out any incumbent who has voted for any bill that provided aid (military or otherwise) for Israel. If we start with that as the sole criteria, we would make great strides in solving the vast majority of issues we’ve been involved in for the past 50 years in the Middle East.
Amendment— to Eliminate— $3.3 billion in U.S. military assistance to Israel did not pass in July 2026.. The vote by the Democratic party side was 103 Dems. in favor of Military funding to Israel and 98 Dems. against it ? This continued support by most Democrat Politicians came even after Voter polls showed almost 75% of Democatic voters were against further Military funding to Israel? So voting Democrat did not change Military funding to Israel. Both sides of the Uniparty appear willing to continue to fund the Military in Israel —-no matter what their voters say they want.
That’s why primaries matter, not just the general election.
That’s what these idiot “uniparty” trolls are lying about. They want us less involved in politics, but the answer is to get more involved. I do not trust any of these “both sides are the same” trolls, because they are spouting exactly what a foreign adversary would want us to believe, and we have concrete proof that foreign adversaries have been employing people exactly like these trolls to poison our discourse and faith in democracy.
Aways love your take on upcoming elections!
Thanks!
NOOOOooo!! Don’t encourage him!! I want Mish to divert his time and energy for his own run.
“Mish & Massie 2028”
Mish has way too much common sense and workable plans. That would never go over.