All Quiet on the Long-Bond Front. How Long Can This Last?

The 30-year bond has been remarkable stable given wild stock and oil market gyrations.

Measure of Stability

Since March 29 the bond market has ignored …

• Everything Trump has said or done.
• Wild moves in the energy markets
• Wild moves in the stock markets (mostly up in manipulated insider trading)

The range bottom to top in bond yields is 8.2 basis points (0.082 percentage points) from 4.858 percent to 4.940 percent. Friday ended at 4.913 percent. The bottom to top range is 1.7 percent.

West Texas Intermediate WTIC peaked at 117.63 then declined to 80.56 and is now 94.40.

The decline was an amazing 31.51 percent in a matter of 10 days. Since then oil has rebounded 17.18 percent in a week.

Bond yields scorched higher between February 25 to March 26, from to 4.613 percent to 4.999 percent but have since pretty much ignored everything.

One Insider Trader Caught

I commented to friends earlier today this person will be made a scapegoat to make it appear the administration is investigating all the claims.

Manipulation has been enormous. For specific details, please see Massive Insider Trading by the Trump Administration or Its Hot Connections

Details prove insider trading by Trump or his connections is not conjecture.

Expect the rest to be swept under the rug and a pardon later on for this person.

Uncommitted Bond Traders

Bond market traders are unconvinced which way this all breaks.

No one knows what the Fed is going to do, what Trump is going to do, how consumers are likely to react, or how long the blockage in the strait will last.

And that is what’s reflected in the bond market.

There were some theories on X that the manipulation was to save the bond market, but a look at the chart suggests the idea is silly. It’s profit baby, no more no less.

Reflections on Lack of Volatility

The direction is unknown, but when we do have a signal, I expect it to be large.

Think of a pop bottle shaken up then the cap suddenly removed.

I suspect yields move higher, but the labor markets could easily collapse and consumer spending with it.

Fed Misses Inflation Target on Ten Different Measures

Please recall my January 14, 2026 post The Fed Has Missed Its Inflation Target on Ten Different Measures

The Atlanta Fed tracks various inflation targets. Let’s have a look.

Since then we have huge war-related inflation and jobs, at least as reported, are holding steady.

There is no reason to be cutting rates here.

March 18, 2026: Fed Press Conference Key Point, 3 Times Powell Said “We Just Don’t Know”

“And no one else does either,” said Powell. Ponder what that implies.

March 30, 2026: Powell Warns the Markets and Trump that His Patience with Inflation Has Limits

Powell’s speech was to Harvard students but read between the lines.

Regarding price gouging on beef and fertilizer, please see Trump and Elizabeth Warren Share the Same Price Gouging Belief on Beef

A price gouging witch hunt is underway on food and fertilizer.

Regarding bond manipulation nonsense and still more still more oil in yuan nonsense, please see What Does CFR’s Brad Setser Say About Petrodollar Myth and Reality?

“The glory days of the petrodollar are over,” says Brad Setser CFR fellow.

Oil is tiny relative to the $1.5 trillion surplus of “manufacturing Asia”—the buildup of dollars in the Chinese state banks and the buildup of offshore dollars in Hong Kong and Singapore from Chinese exporters drove the Eurodollar market.