The 30-year bond has been remarkable stable given wild stock and oil market gyrations. 
Measure of Stability
Since March 29 the bond market has ignored …
- Everything Trump has said or done.
- Wild moves in the energy markets
- Wild moves in the stock markets (mostly up in manipulated insider trading)
The range bottom to top in bond yields is 8.2 basis points (0.082 percentage points) from 4.858 percent to 4.940 percent. Friday ended at 4.913 percent. The bottom to top range is 1.7 percent.
West Texas Intermediate WTIC peaked at 117.63 then declined to 80.56 and is now 94.40.
The decline was an amazing 31.51 percent in a matter of 10 days. Since then oil has rebounded 17.18 percent in a week.
Bond yields scorched higher between February 25 to March 26, from to 4.613 percent to 4.999 percent but have since pretty much ignored everything.
One Insider Trader Caught
I commented to friends earlier today this person will be made a scapegoat to make it appear the administration is investigating all the claims.
Manipulation has been enormous. For specific details, please see Massive Insider Trading by the Trump Administration or Its Hot Connections
Details prove insider trading by Trump or his connections is not conjecture.
Expect the rest to be swept under the rug and a pardon later on for this person.
Uncommitted Bond Traders
Bond market traders are unconvinced which way this all breaks.
No one knows what the Fed is going to do, what Trump is going to do, how consumers are likely to react, or how long the blockage in the strait will last.
And that is what’s reflected in the bond market.
There were some theories on X that the manipulation was to save the bond market, but a look at the chart suggests the idea is silly. It’s profit baby, no more no less.
Reflections on Lack of Volatility
The direction is unknown, but when we do have a signal, I expect it to be large.
Think of a pop bottle shaken up then the cap suddenly removed.
I suspect yields move higher, but the labor markets could easily collapse and consumer spending with it.
Fed Misses Inflation Target on Ten Different Measures
Please recall my January 14, 2026 post The Fed Has Missed Its Inflation Target on Ten Different Measures
The Atlanta Fed tracks various inflation targets. Let’s have a look.
Since then we have huge war-related inflation and jobs, at least as reported, are holding steady.
There is no reason to be cutting rates here.
March 18, 2026: Fed Press Conference Key Point, 3 Times Powell Said “We Just Don’t Know”
“And no one else does either,” said Powell. Ponder what that implies.
March 30, 2026: Powell Warns the Markets and Trump that His Patience with Inflation Has Limits
Powell’s speech was to Harvard students but read between the lines.
Regarding price gouging on beef and fertilizer, please see Trump and Elizabeth Warren Share the Same Price Gouging Belief on Beef
A price gouging witch hunt is underway on food and fertilizer.
Regarding bond manipulation nonsense and still more still more oil in yuan nonsense, please see What Does CFR’s Brad Setser Say About Petrodollar Myth and Reality?
“The glory days of the petrodollar are over,” says Brad Setser CFR fellow.
Oil is tiny relative to the $1.5 trillion surplus of “manufacturing Asia”—the buildup of dollars in the Chinese state banks and the buildup of offshore dollars in Hong Kong and Singapore from Chinese exporters drove the Eurodollar market.
The Ten Year Note and 30 Year Bond are tracking oil futures’ Hormuz inflationary fractal growth (and falling global demand for a highly unreliable and unpredictable former US ally and its substantial sovereign debt). Oil futures have completed a 16 Dec 15/35/36 day 1st fractal series with the 2nd fractal series completing day 6 of the 2nd fractal series on 24 April 2026. With the Israeli agents Kush and Wits’ canceled Islamabad trip, there will be no news surprises, just strait closure higher oil prices ahead.
While the ACWI global equity ETF did not make a final higher high on 24 April 2026, because of the effect of the higher Hormuz oil energy prices on the European Equity Markets, the US Wilshire 5000, composite of US equities, did reach a new high on 24 April 2026.
The SPX final 30 Mar 2026 x/2.5x :: 6/14 day 1st and 2nd fractal series reaching its higher high on 24 April 2026 was a 36-37/92 hour :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series reaching its higher average high on the 92nd hour of the 92 hour 2nd fractal.
colliding with reality….
no negotiations in Pakistan this weekend even though Trump was pleading for talks and was sending the Zionist real estate duo
whatcha gonna do on Monday without “progress is being made”?
hide the ketchup bottles!
Agreed. Trump has his nuts in the wringer and Iran just keeps twisting the screws. At some level you gotta love it.
It’s important to look at the bond market holistically, such as the 2, 10, and 30 year bonds. Yields on the 2 year US bond have been in a choppy downtrend the past 2.5-3 years. Yields on the 10 year US bond have been in a choppy sideways trend. Yields on the 30 year US bond have been moving sideways, but the lower edge rising. The yield curve is normalizing. The time ratio of yield rally to time since the yield peak is very close to a Fibonacci 0.618. So…
1.) The past 2.5-3 years have been a CORRECTION of the yield rally from the COVID lows.
2.) Yields are about to break out since yields are near the convergence point of the upper and lower trend lines of the correction.
3.) points 1 and 2 imply yields are going to break to the upside.
4.) A normalizing yield curve indicates inflation is NOT TRANSITORY, but getting worse.
Although, 5% is pretty high for a long government bond in a first world country, there are a lot of reasons that US Gov long bonds should have much higher yields. You gotta think there is intervention of some sort in the system. Huge borrowing for war which is dead money, weak economy, repayment of tariffs, lower tax collections due to BBB, large deficits from here until forever, poor governance, lack of foreign purchasing, etc. it’s a long list. The only thing pointing to lower rates is a supposed flight to safety. But gold is likely a better bet these days than anything US government backed.
so ya, I would bet someone is cooking the books. But even the US government can’t defy gravity forever and bond prices will have to fall. The US is a couple of years into a debt spiral that it cannot possibly get out of. In order for the gov to have any chance of avoiding eventual catastrophe they need to implement a VAT system like every other major economy. Of course that is political suicide in the US and when facing the choice of doing the right and logical thing and getting reelected we know where politicians land.
There’s reality and then there are the markets. 🎰
Long bond yields are considerably below where I would place funds. The risk of rates rising and the bond depreciating are simply too high for me. If anything, I’m expecting a downgrade of US credit.
This treading water period will not last more than six months IMO. But we all know about what opinions are worth…
Funny that this article came out now. I was just drawing trend lines on the /ZN (bond futures) chart that matches Mish’s thoughts.
If you connect the highs from the spring of 2023, fall 2024, and February of this year, you get the top of a long pennant shape. The bottom of the pennant runs from October 2023 to January 2025. If you then extend both trend lines out to the right, the point where those two lines cross is January 2028.
For a pennant that will be nearly five years long by then, I agree with this (from the article):
“The direction is unknown, but when we do have a signal, I expect it to be large.”
Donald Trump’s grades at Fordham leaked
https://x.com/Gianl1974/status/2046601043933274425/photo/1
Although those grades wouldn’t surprise me, the document seems like an obvious fake. Aside from the perfect computer printing on a supposedly 60-year old document, there is no date anywhere on the page.
The behavior of the 30-yr bond seems reasonable to me. NetanyahuTrump war will cause the deficit to grow strongly and the subsequent worldwide recession will explode it further–tending to pressure rates upward. And near-term inflation argues against a Fed cut. Yet when the recession hits full force, the Fed and the market will drive interest rates down.
The discussion here always seems to focus on isolated trends but
often misses the overall picture. We have seen data showing
tightening liquidity conditions building into late 2025, including the
Federal Reserve’s balance‑sheet normalization, heavier Treasury
issuance, and liquidity‑smoothing operations.
Liquidity tightness continues to linger. In early 2026, gold rose against
high real yields, equity leadership narrowed, there was a brief
disruption in yen‑funded carry trades, central banks intermittently
injected short‑term liquidity, and recent US bond auctions showed
softer demand. Slowing global liquidity, persistent fiscal deficits, and
elevated real US bond yields are now the central macro drivers.
Recent geopolitical brinkmanship such as Venezuela, Iran, and the
Hormuz Strait has only amplified these underlying pressures.
We are slowly transitioning into a stagflation‑tilted environment, where
inflation proves sticky, growth softens, bond yields remain elevated,
and gold prices stay firm. US megacaps will most likely become a
relative safe harbor and grind higher as global markets begin to lag.
I expect this stagflationary environment may linger for a while, but
tight liquidity will leave the global macro economy vulnerable. We
could see localized credit events if something breaks, or
disinflationary cooling if demand weakens more sharply than supply.
So where is the long bond in a year?
Hard to say – I would say the long bond is still elevated in a year, most likely grinding in the 4.5–5% zone, unless a credit accident or demand shock forces yields lower.
No one here has a clue, if they did they’d be working for Jane Capital
You don’t need to know that, all you need to know is that it will be volatile and you can make a ton of profits buying/selling calls/puts on each move up/down.
There’s reality and then there are the markets. 🐎
A very timely post. I’ve been selling calls or puts on TLT since this whole Iran thing started. Banking some nice profits on the options and sitting and collecting the 4.5% dividend each month.
Today, TLT dropped precipitously so I rolled calls into the future and banked my usual 70% or so profits. TLT is one of the highly traded options equity. The volatility has been amazing.
The 1 month chart shows the near perfect setup for selling high and buying low. Each peak is a profitgasm! Each trough is a reload.
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/TLT
Of course I bought this in anticipation of rate cuts but will hold on for the higher dividend if rates rise. It’s win-win. Great way to end the week!
JPMorgan and PIMCO Warn Bond Markets Miss Slowdown Risks
https://catenaa.com/markets/global-markets/bond-market-slowdown-risks/
Great article and confirms my thesis on TLT. Win-win in any situation.
is not Mish in Utah? Why Trump wants to spend $1 billion on Great Salt Lake
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/24/nx-s1-5746844/why-trump-wants-to-spend-1-billion-on-great-salt-lake
I’ve been saying for years that everything west of the Rockies will largely be desert in due time (next decade). This spend won’t change anything.
It’s all part of the cycle.
https://www.oregonencyclopedia.org/articles/pleistocene-pluvial-lakes/
Spending a billion on the Salt Lake is like taking a piss to fill it. Not going to happen.
The Central Utah Project was supposed to provide water for “Happy Valley” and does divert about 7.5 million acre feet annually from the Colorado river into the Salt Lake Basin. Even with this massive project, the lake has continued to decline. At this point it is only a small remnant of what it was 30 years ago.
Last winter saw the entire Rocky Mountains receive 50% of average snowpack and was by any estimation a disaster for the ski industry. This occurs when there is a “La Niña” event in the Pacific ocean (as we have today). All part of the “pacific oscillation” which is a 2-7 year cycle.
As a northern mid-western farmer I pay attention to the “trends” to plan for potential outcomes in a broad context. Interestingly, much of the climate information I previously had access to has disappeared due to cuts by Trump in his war against climate science.
Who needs any of these things we collectively worked decades to build together? /s
What a retarded article…not a peep about how this restoration is supposed to be accomplished. Oh, NPR…lolz….never mind. (not criticizing you posting it, just the article content 🙂
They could spend $10 billion and it will make the same long term difference….zero. Might as well take that money and use it to kill brown people in the Middle East…oh, wait, already doing that…oops!
Reminds of the dipshits on the California coastline looking for a bailout for their mansions falling into the ocean.
https://nypost.com/2025/09/30/real-estate/california-mansions-on-the-edge-following-a-bluff-collapse/
Are you blaming NPR for Trump’s desire to “Make the lake great again” as he says in the article? Is not NPR relaying Trump’s agenda? Are you suggesting NPR is somehow setting the agenda here? Seems to me you’re just easily triggered by NPR, or using that to avoid holding Trump accountable, along with bringing up irrelevant issues in CA.
Waiting for more some verbal vomit from taco and/or his lemmings.
You won’t have to wait long.
Will people please stop besmirching an innocent mammal?
https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=wildlifenews.view_article&articles_id=56
You found a good hill to die on, if you want to die in solitude.
Public service to those who strive to sound less foolish. Don’t worry, no one’s dying over it – not even the lemmings 😉