I picked this idea up from Oxford (@GregDaco) via UPFINA (@UPFINAcom).
https://twitter.com/UPFINAcom/status/1396995479934849030
Continued Claims
I did a quick check via a data download from “Fred” the St. Louis Fed repository. Fred allows 12 rows on a chart so I took the 12 most populated states that have expiring benefits. I included Florida based on the above Tweet comment.
Expiring Benefits Top 12 States
Analysis
Those totals are for continued claims in the top 12 states as of May 5. Oxford has the total as 940,000 but that includes 10 additional states while excluding Florida.
Since continued claims are declining and the bigger states not counting Florida expire 6/19 or later, I suspect Oxford’s totals are on the high side (or will be a month from now).
To that we can add PUA claims and PEUC claims.
The PUA program is rife with fraud and there is some overlap. So my off the cuff guess is that approximately 2.5 to 3.0 million people will be impacted starting mid-June.
If continued claims rise, Oxford’s totals and especially mine will be on the low side.
Generous Benefits
“…each month in early 2021, 7 out of 28 unemployed individuals receive job offers that they would normally accept but 1 of the 7 decides to decline the offer due to the availability of extra $300/week in UI payments”
That is precisely why states are canceling benefits.
From 7 to 21
On May 11, I noted Seven States End All Federally Funded Covid-19 Unemployment Benefits
Since then another 14 states joined the list.
Note that Amazon is Hiring 17,000 With $1,000 Signing Bonus at $17 an Hour
Will that satisfy Amazon critics? I suspect not.
All Eyes on the Next Jobs Report
Meanwhile, Economic Data is Weakening on Four Fronts.
And New Home Sales Badly Miss Expectations With Negative Revisions As Well
Perhaps claims will rise or at least not dip.
The next job’s report will be under the microscope for sure. It’s on Friday, June 4.
Mish
