Like Nate Silver or not, the above 538 House Forecast is a reasonable starting point for discussion.
Silver has the Republicans a slight favorite (68-32) favorite to win the House. That margin seems more than "slight" but use your own definition.
- There are 435 seats so 218 is a majority
- The current house makeup is 221 to 214
- A flip of 7 seats, my base forecast right now, would give the Republicans a 221-214 majority.
Republicans have a bit of a cushion in this. For example, AZ-2 and VA-2 could easily easily flip Red negating CA-27 and PA-7.
Election What If?
- If you give all 11 seats in the blue box to Republicans and all else stayed the same (it wouldn't) Republicans would pick up 4 more seats for a net pickup of 11.
- If you give all 11 seats in the blue box to Democrats and all else stayed the same (it wouldn't) Republicans would only flip a net of 3 seats giving Democrats a 218 to 217 majority of 1.
That latter scenario, or a similar outcome is unlikely, but it's possible. One in four or five is not a major upset.
10-12 Seats Are Crucial
No one trusts these polls, but 10-12 tossup seats could easily determine this crucial midterm election.
Very few seats are actually in play in most elections. Only when there is a blowout do major shifts occur. Then midterm results return to the status quo sooner or later, and mostly sooner.
This setup is a result of extreme gerrymandering by both parties in the states they control.
And as a direct consequence, extreme candidates win nominations.
What Will Determine the Outcome?
The vote will come down to turnout, policies, and mostly on winning over independents.
Republicans need focus on issues the independents care about if they wish to improve their odds in the midterm elections.
Here are those issues: Inflation, education, school boards, woke policies, massive tax hikes, and potential blue state pension bailouts.
Results in very a very red-state Kansas show abortion is mostly a losing message for Republicans. By a 59-41 percent margin Kansas voters rejected a constitutional amendment Tuesday that would have said there was no right to an abortion in the state.
Democrats have picked up on this.
Republicans let Democrats turn the campaign into a focus on Trump and abortion not on inflation. Trump himself is not displeased with this.
There is a lot riding on the outcome economically. I expect an inflationary inferno if Democrats hold the House because the most likely outcome is they pick up a Senate seat.
Progressives would be in full control, no longer needing Senator Joe Manchin's vote.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
Thanks for Tuning In!
Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.
If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.