According to Worldometers there are 11,298 coronavirus cases in serious or critical condition. There are 57,736 total cases. Those in serious or critical condition constitute 20% of cases.
Most of the deaths yet to come will start in the pool of serious or critical patients.
Logarithmic Charts
Worldometers provides an excellent set of linear and logarithmic charts but the latter is a much better way of visualizing slowdowns or accelerations.
The rates are decelerating but have not yet turned down.
Coronavirus Cases by Country
I added the color highlights in the last column.
2020-02-16 Updates
- 1 new case in the United Arab Emirates.
- 3 new cases in Singapore: a family member of a previously confirmed case and 2 persons linked to the Grace Assembly of God church, including a Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) serviceman.
- 1 new death in Taiwan: a 61-year-old man with no travel history abroad but – as a taxi driver – serving clients from Hong Kong, Macau and mainland China, who had underlying conditions (diabetes and hepatitis B).
- 2 new cases in Taiwan.
- 6 new cases in Japan.
- 1 new case in Hong Kong: 54-year-old man with no travel history and no known contacts with confirmed cases.
- 70 new cases onboard the cruise ship in Japan. Nearly 1 out of 10 passengers and crew (9.6%) have tested positive to the virus so far (355 cases out of 3,711 passengers and crew).
- 1 new case in South Korea: a 82-year-old South Korean man in Seoul, with no travel history to China.
- 166 new cases and 3 new deaths occurred outside of Hubei province in China on February 15, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China.
Casual Transmission
Points 2, 3, 6, and 8 involve casual (no travel or family member) transmission.
Point 7 show how easily the virus spreads on a cruise ship.
Mortality Rates
Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, “naïve” and can be “misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients.”
In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn’t yet been determined.
The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T} (where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)
This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.
One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak).
See Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate for more discussion.
Death Rate Comparison
Serious and Critical vs Deaths Over Time
I asked Worldometers for charts of serious and critical cases vs deaths over time.
I will post a chart if they answer.
Daily Death Growth Factor
Growth factor is the factor by which a quantity multiplies itself over time. The formula used is every day’s deaths / deaths on the previous day. For example, a quantity growing by 7% every period (in this case daily) has a growth factor of 1.07.
A growth factor above 1 indicates an increase, whereas one between 0 and 1 it is a sign of decline, with the quantity eventually becoming zero.
A growth factor below 1 (or above 1 but trending downward) is a positive sign, whereas a growth factor constantly above 1 is the sign of exponential growth.
The death rate dipped below 1.00 on February 1 (0.98), February 11 (0.90), and February 13 (0.84).
On the 14th the rate jumped backed up to 1.17.
Virus Probably With Us Beyond 2020
The above from Coronavirus Expert Opinions.
CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield says “I think this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we’ll get community based transmission and you can start to think about it like seasonal flu. The only difference is we don’t understand this virus.“
Also note Harvard Professor Says Global Coronavirus Pandemic is Likely
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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What to think? Only elderly people die?
Also Dr Li, the doctor who warned others looked pretty young to me. Also of note, I believe he died 27 days or so after reporting symptoms.
Anybody who is compromised in any way is also more likely to die. Being overworked with very little sleep definitely qualifies are compromised.
In any epidemic, some young people die. The only thing we know about this one is that children don’t…at least not so far.
60% of Chinese doctors smoke (against 3.3% in the US, 6.8% in the UK). Chinese smokers smoke 19 cigarettes a day on average (for comparison, it is about 10 in the UK). Combine that with air pollution and your average Chinese doctor is probably as healthier as your emphysemic grandmother.
Then add air pollution.
And the fact that even in normal times, Chinese doctors work on average 11 hours a day, 6 days a week.
Bluntly, I’m surprised they are living long enough for the virus to fell them.
Im sure you’ve seen the reports of nearly 2000 health professionals being infected by the Coronavirus. I hope your right because I am hoping that situation does not also transpire elsewhere making the treatment of infected even worse.
Update:
Here’s Zero Hedge’s latest smoking-gun piece. As usual, if you follow their links you discover it’s BS. Why they’re quoting a know-nothing politician is beyond me. He doesn’t have a clue where it originated unless he was in on it.
Click on the Twitter link and you discover that the Wuhan Virology Lab memo wasn’t forbidding workers from speaking about the “unknown pneumonia in Wuhan” because they have anything to do with it, but rather, “the spread of some improper, untrue words earlier on has sparked panic.”
The article goes on to quote a study (but fails to provide a link) saying a group of scientists in China conclude the virus “probably” originated at a laboratory in Wuhan. There’s more than one lab in the area. Some sort of a leak/escape of one of the many bat coronaviruses they study is not out of the question. One of our own BLS-4 labs was shut down last summer at Ft. Detrick, Maryland for failure to meet basic bio-safety standards. If you google “biosafety accidents in the U.S.” you’ll get plenty of hits including escaped mice.
These people are really clever though, bringing deadly viruses and animals that carry them, to live in a crowded city.
Anda, almost all the BLS-4 labs on the planet are located in large metropolitan areas. If you want to attract workers, you can’t locate them in Toejam, Alaska. Many of them are also associated with Universities as is the one in Wuhan.
You can place them fifty miles out with a half a mile of open space to the perimeter though, and all refuse whatsoever fully self contained . You could even quarantine anyone working there after a shift of say weeks. I don’t think they have trouble finding workers at all, even if conditions were that “harsh”. If you want to play with viruses that endanger other people, humanity or the world as we know it, its a very small price. It is all just a reflection of how anything is run at a wider level, and the character of the people who run it.
Anda, you’re talking common sense, I was talking about government-run BLS-4 labs. Can you stay on topic please! lol. 🙂
It’s ZH. they don’t care about the virus. They only care about any Black Swan that can bring the stock market down BIG. I mean if it were legal to do a citizen’s arrest of Jeremy Powell, they might do it too.
Nah, when disaster calls and inflation rips in the stock market goes up because it is a haven compared to cash. Watch countries that have high inflation and you see the stock market trying to keep pace. For the market to crash it has to have something to crash against, i.e. everyone withdraws dollars and there is no economy to value those dollars. Probably crash anyway so that some people can get out ahead and feel good about it.
:-/
I think you are forgetting that during 2008, the market crashed after some serious inflation in a number of things, from oil, housing prices, financial assets and even some serious devaluation in the US Dollar vis a vis the Euro. By the way I was not saying I agree with ZH. It’s just that ZH has been calling 50 of the last 2 recessions. Everyday, there will be an article along “the stock market will crash soon”.
I agree, however there hasn’t been a high visible inflation on the whole economy, on consumer prices, just sneaky bubbles, added costs, and underestimated CPI, wage stagnation etc. that doesn’t have the words “escape” or “don’t hold cash” written on it. I’m guessing obviously but I reckon that corporate valuations are priority to market transparency – Japan and EU show how far they can go to keep that world intact, add in high inflation and I guess the stockmarket will stay funded if only to slowly deflate it in real terms over time. Could crash though also, what do I know. 🙂
With all of the rumors of “bio-weapon”, how exactly does that make a difference now? What different response is necessary now? Do we bomb the Chinese for releasing a bio-weapon on their own population?
Assuming it’s an accidental release or just a natural mutation, nobody wanted to cause this. I think the US will be very careful of making allegations formally too. The natural response will be “we are the victims, why would we want to attack ourselves in the middle of a trade war”. And then every conspiracy nut’s head will swing towards the stars and stripes, fluttering in the afternoon breeze.
Depends on if it were purposeful or accidental release, and by who, something that would be extremely hard to be certain of.
If accidental then you have a call for access to all related research at the lab with information on what characteristics were being tested. If it were bioweapons engineering then that would not all be forthcoming. This might lead to a jump forward in determining a solution, or of knowing potential severity of the virus. In the long run it might mean closing down these labs or having agreement on international supervision.
If purposeful release then the show would go ape.
That is not to include political, social, media frenzy of whatever kind, but that is prepped to happen in one form or another anyway probably.
This is a ridiculous rumor. People forget that the Chinese sequenced the virus within days and sent it out. How do you think other countries have been able to test for this virus? The CDC sequenced the Ebola virus after 2 months. If this is truly a bioweapon, handing over the DNA sequence is akin to handing in the murder weapon.
I agree. When these rumours kicked off, I found the link the paper that supposedly said that the virus had been spliced with HIV.
The paper said “this is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature”
As a native English speaker, I read this as “this is unlikely to be good news”
The conspiracy nuts were claiming that this was actually saying “this is unlikely to have happened by chance”.
Interestingly one of the first posters that I saw on ZH claiming this was Swedish. In Sweden, “the Nature” is the word used to describe the natural world, wilderness, etc. So perhaps it was a genuine misunderstanding.
Obviously there is a biohazard lab there, and this may have leaked from it, just like the foot and mouth virus leaked from a lab in the UK and resulted in mass slaughter of cattle (and, weirdly, a TB outbreak – now blamed on badgers – caused by cattle not being properly tested while the national herd was rapidly rebuilt)
Has anyone who is not oriental died?
Not yet, but that’s probably not statistically significant and won’t be for another month.
I think we will see deaths elsewhere. Maybe not on the same scale due to smoking and air pollution. I also think we should probably acknowledge that the individuals presently infected are probably enjoying excellent healthcare.
Take 10 cases with a doubling time of 6.4 days and see how long it takes for every US critical care bed to be filled with the very severely ill 3-5%. In the UK, that happens by 15 May. That’s when the dying would start.
One American woman did die in Wuhan, but her race wasn’t disclosed.
This is what I found on worldometers.info regarding deaths:
Philippines – 44 year old Chinese male
Hong Kong – 39 years old Hong Kong resident had been to China with underlying health issues
Japan – 80 year old woman, lived in Japan
France – 80 year old Chinese tourist
No information is given on the race of the Hong Kong resident or the Japanese resident, but the odds are that they were Asian. There is no indication that race is a factor. While an earlier study which involved a single Asian male, and a single non-Asian male showed the Asian male presented more ACE2 receptors, a later study showed no difference based on gender or race. The only factor that was significant was whether the person smoked.
Since most infections of non-Asians took place in the last two weeks, and since the average time to death seems to be about 21 days after the onset of symptoms, it’s still a bit early yet to expect non-Asian deaths outside of China.
It was, actually: she was Chinese American.
The Japanese lady was described as being “from” a Japanese prefecture. Given the homogeneity of Japanese society, I suspect she was Japanese.
20% serious or critical … given China’s brutality and lying record, I highly doubt the definitions of these conditions are akin to what a helicopter mother would come up with.
Instead of focusing mainly on other countries, we should think about whether the numbers in the US look credible. It’s been reported that a Japanese tourist who recently returned to Japan from Hawaii has tested positive for the virus. Additionally, he’s infected at least one other person after his return according to JapanTimes.
During his vacation in Hawaii, he went into a resort (while already displaying symptoms) and it’s not unreasonable to think that he came into contact with quite a few people. In fact, according to an article from the New York Times today, a person who thinks that he had come into contact with the person offered to self isolate himself but was instead told by the State of Hawaii to live his life normally.
So basically we are supposed to believe that the US is so awesome that person to person transmission can’t happen here?
Also, when will a person in the US ever get tested for this? Let’s say one displays flu like symptoms and go to the doctor, presumably he/she will answer NO to “have you ever been to China recently?’
The UK NHS will stop testing for COVID-19 when 100 cases are confirmed.
This is apparently to save resources and makes sense given the R0 of this thing, but does kind of show criticism of Chinese testing failures in a different light.
At the same time they just told schools that there is no permission to keep children out if someone is not confirmed as infected (i.e. is suspected). How are they going to handle that if they stop testing I don’t know.
According to HHS, they have selected five cities, and will test everyone who presents with flu symptoms, whether they have been to China or not. They can’t test everyone in the US, but if Coronavirus starts spreading, it will reach those 5 cities, too, and will be picked up.
I think testing sick people who present to the doctor with cold/flu in five major cities is not the best approach, given the recent information about mild and asymptomatic cases. They should instead ask doctors over a nationwide area to query their patients who are in the office for unrelated reasons whether they currently have mild cold-like symptoms that have persisted for longer than 2.5 weeks, or if they have a close friend or relative who has had those symptoms, and then they should test a statistically significant portion of those people. That should tell the CDC pretty quickly if this is already too widespread to be contained through the measures that have been enacted thus far.
Yep, waiting for a cluster to form does not seem like the best approach. Either:
A couple of days ago, a plane from SF was also held on the tarmac of the Heathrow airport for coronavirus suspicion. If that turns out to be positive, are we just supposed to accept that the number of cases in SF, which is zero, is credible?
A friend of mine who came through SFO on Feb 2nd told me that there was no temperature screening done in SFO at all, instead the CDC had a small table manned by 2 people on the side of the immigration hall doing nothing.
The problem with the closed cases; the statistic is not complete for medical analysis. There’s 1. recovered, 2. dead, but there is a sub category of recovered called sequelae, which is recovered but with other lasting permanent complications.
That is what is truly scary at this point.
What are the long term effects?
Could this virus be like HIV in the effect that it is recurring?
We don’t know anything about this thing yet.
“If panic is warranted, it will happen too late to do any good.”
From the BBC article: Cornavirus: China and the Virus that threatens everything
“The best approach, most experts agree, is one based on transparency and trust, with good public information and proportionate, timely government action.”
It is interesting to see the various govt responses to the coronavirus. In the States, Trump is telling the masses it is gone by April. Various other govts appear to be telling the populace that they should be getting ready and Britain is preparing its people for possible self isolation. Odd why no one is commenting on this.
Im sure in Canada and the US, it will only become an issue when it is an issue, and you can expect the least transparency and trust thereby ensuring a much more paniced scenario as compared to other countries.
Meanwhile check out the major papers in the UK
“The World Health Organisation advises countries to do in-depth investigations of at least the first 100 confirmed cases of any pandemic.”
“But ‘millions’ of Britons with flu-like symptoms could be told by authorities to ‘self-isolate’ by staying at home for a fortnight if the UK’s number of confirmed cases passes 100, the Sunday Telegraph has reported.”
Google UK or Britain, self isolation and that looks to be the British response should the pandemic expand as it appears in all the major news sites.
eg
The big worry here in the UK is that we’ll run out of tea. We have encountered this situation once or twice in the past and it is horrific. Total societal meltdown.
Why are we agreeing these graphs are good when we’ve been saying all along the data is wrong and under reported? If the data is no good, these graphs are no good.
That’s why my comment above referred to the non-China cases. Even if the Chinese data is correct, by the way, is it analogous to what might happen in the US? No. If the only way to stop the virus is to require everyone to stay home, and only one person per household could leave a home once per three days, I’d say people would never do that.
On cases outside of China, if I added correctly, there are 781, of which 26 are in serious or critical condition. If 1/6 of those in serious or critical condition die, the CFR will be .6% when proper medical care is available. Obviously, the death rate will be much, much higher when if hospitals are overwhelmed, as they are/were in Wuhan.
Of course, that estimate is a minimum, and the real CFR will be higher because some of those not yet in serious or critical condition will end up there.
You have to factor in the lag time in symptoms.
0-7 days=flu
8-14 deterioration
15-21 death or recovery.
Since the cases are front loaded the comparison should be made from 14-21 days ago.
For reference, cases outside China (Johns Hopkins site):
Today = 780
7 days ago = 361
14 days ago = 183
The number of cases is going up exponentially, doubling every 6 to 7 days. Unfortunately, the Diamond Princess is about half of all the cases outside mainland China and it is combined with the total, so it is difficult to tell at a glance how the cruise ship is skewing the numbers.
Based on the recent new cases in Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong , and what happened with the Diamond Princess and then the American passenger discovered infected with SARS-COV-2 after the Westerdam was allowed to disembark, I think it is safe to say this virus will eventually be everywhere. What I would like to know that I still cannot determine from the news reports is: what is the typical severity of this illness? I also want to know if there is already a first wave freely moving P2P in the U.S. There is something new going around. People with a Flu shot still get it. It causes cold-like symptoms, but it can last up to 4 weeks. I cannot remember the last time I had a cold that lasted 4 weeks.
“Unfortunately, the Diamond Princess is about half of all the cases outside mainland China and it is combined with the total, so it is difficult to tell at a glance how the cruise ship is skewing the numbers.”
It is reminding us that probably there are thousands of untested cases outside of China.
I agree that the rapid spread aboard the Death Princess (aka Diamond Princess) is concerning. It raises the concern that it could spread quietly with people thinking they had a cold, and spreading it. I saw an interview with the head of HHS, and they are wary of this, too. As in China, I am sure we have a finite capability to test, but he indicated they are taking five cities and every person who presents with cold/flu symptoms will be tested for COVID-19. That seems like a reasonable approach.
Would want some random testing across the country also imo . 99 more on the diamond princess, this is nuts, will have to hope CFR is much lower than so far reported, or that the ship is a freak (which I doubt).
I think the cruise ship spread will tail off. I think it has been person to person within shared cabins, but let’s see.
It’s certainly a very convenient experiment in how fast it spreads and how hard it kills. At this time of year, I would imagine most of the passengers are older, so the condition of those passengers in three weeks from now will give an indication on likely real world impact (assuming, that is, that it remains true to say that young people are not dying).
Quarantine doctor and a driver to airport picked it up also, in spite of measures. In shared cabins then divide by two roughly but that is still over two hundred so far from one patient in the first ten days or so before quarantine . Shame we are not given a clear report of how cases are distributed on the ship.
We cannot tell from new reports which decks and areas have the most cases, but we have been given some useful information:
Approximate total passengers and crew: 3600
Total number of people tested so far: 1723
Total number of positive tests so far: 454 (26% of those tested)
Total number of asymptomatic infections: 70% of those positive (about 318 cases)
Since news has previously reported that people appear to develop symptoms on average 5 days after infection, the high number of asymptomatic infected passengers makes it probable that these people were either infected less than 5 days ago despite the quarantine, or asymptomatic infections are much longer lasting and more widespread than previously known, and that means more than one person likely boarded the ship already infected. Either way, it looks guaranteed that SARS-COV-2 is far beyond containment.
Source:
I presume they will test anyone with viral pneumonia anywhere, plus anyone with flu symptoms in the five cities, plus continuing to try to catch people on entry into the country. I’m not sure they can do much more than that, nor am I sure it is enough.
JimmyScot, you can find some age information on the Worldmeters site. It has lots of data, and links to a lot more.
When a log chart shows a straight line, it means log growth proportional to 1-e^(Kt). The fact the curve is flattening is a good sign efforts to contain the virus are working.
Recoveries were originally lower than deaths. They have been climbing steadily and there is no reason to believe that the current death/recovery or death/closed cases rate is meaningful
Mish: “1 new case in South Korea: a 82-year-old South Korean man in Seoul, with no travel history to China.” but as of 20 minutes ago, CNN reports: “Singapore has identified three new cases of the novel coronavirus, bringing the citywide total to 75 confirmed cases, the country’s health ministry said. Two of the cases are linked to the Grace Assembly of God church, which is the largest community cluster of cases in Singapore.The third one is related to a separate case. None of those patients have traveled to China recently, the ministry said .”
And let’s not forget the story ZeroHedge got banned on Twitter for a few weeks ago, as reported by MishTalk, namely, that Covid-19 is an accidentally escaped bioweapon virus, has been confirmed as of today by an academic paper from Wuhan researchers, as reported on Daily Mail (UK). When this story goes mainstream watch for the gap down in the DJ-30 and the@realDonaldTrump tweets go ballistic, hopefully not literally. And btw, as per that article, the residents of Wuhan do not habitually eat “live bat” at the live meat market, the bat in question anyway living hundreds of miles away. Instead, the CH bioweapons lab that does use these type bats is a mere 300 yards from the live market… Figure it out yourself.
Ray, Zero Hedge got banned from Twitter for posting the guy’s phone number and email address and hinting that people should harass him. Zero Hedge did some great research on that article, they just came to all the wrong conclusions. But that’s what generates repeat clicks.
Thanks, that was indeed the official story. But NBA / Daryl Morey / Houston Rockets controversy comes to mind, and this: ” Twitter is blocked in China; however, many Chinese people circumvent the block to use it. Even major Chinese companies and national medias, such as Huawei and CCTV , use Twitter…”
Zero Hedge does awesome research, but I find it’s more valuable to click on their links, read the original papers, and come to my own conclusions.
Same view. However the data ZH printed was all available publicly afaik, so their “crime” was to suggest the researcher in question was the one who might be able to answer questions on the virus origin given his background. It was suggestive not accusatory, though an insinuation that he had engineered this virus could be read into the story if chosen.
I don’t think the article was too harsh, but I think the topic was too sensitive in that it placed the spotlight on Wuhan biolab.
(Edit in : When I look at ZH style it is alt., contrarian or conspiracy , however they don’t go full overboard on any of these even though there is some sensationalism mixed in. I have the impression that they are providing a wide range of info, they include left wing sources if they think it has something of use, so the errors or false leads I just take them as part and parcel of forwarding so much info. I think they run on low staff and flat out so not surprised even if intentional omissions occur, not that they would be right. Without ZH we wouldn’t know much about the biolab work, we wouldn’t have heard of David Boyle’s view, a recent article by globalresearch (a site I don’t read because I sense there is some propaganda mixed in) there looked at US bioweapons programme, maybe exaggerated maybe not but plenty of food for thought. In short, if you know how to approach what they present,then it is valuable, if you like complete coherent presentation, expect a round answer, and take everything for fact, then likely not )
One of Zero Hedge’s stories this morning had a lot of great research in it as usual. When I started following the links, one led to another story, which had this line and a link:
“Firstly, let it be well understood that this particular virus was patented in the United States. A U.S. Patent For ‘An Attenuated Coronavirus’ Was Filed In 2015 And Granted In 2018. Let that sink in…”
Then the author just leaves you hanging there to let your imagination run wild. It’s called “hint and run” in Journalism School. The reader is supposed to conclude, “OMG! The US Government is creating coronavirus bioweapons!!” Well, anyone with a grain of biology schoolin’ knows that you create a vaccine by “attenuating,” or weakening, the virus. So what was the patent for? A vaccine! A vaccine against a coronavirus. So the author plays on the reader’s ignorance, and gets away with it all too often.
When I find that kind of crap in a story, what does that do to my confidence level about everything else in the story? It goes right to zero. That’s why it is so important to follow the links, read the sources, look up some definitions.
St. F: You might want to watch Potholer54’s youtube channel – his channel intro expands on the journalistic proctices you are highlighting.
I did read the article in the Daily Mail, which is found at:
It is worth pointing out, though it will be ignored, that the article makes no suggestion that the virus was bio-engineered; it only suggests that they were studying bats there of the same type that were known to carry SARS, and a natural bat virus could have escaped from one of the bats. That’s a far cry from the conspiracy theories that I have seen making the rounds, that it was bio-engineered as a weapon, and/or that it was intentionally released.
I don’t think they were studying the bats, they were studying viruses and bats were being used in their studies (which is a pretty good reason for a bat to attack a person in my opinion). The question of bioweapons won’t be answered easily, because all of this research is potentially dual use, as well as next door to a biolab being a good place for an enemy to release a virus and make it look accidental. I think the Chinese at least would know if it were released not from the lab because they will be able to compare it with the types of those in the bats they are taking care…sorry experimenting on, that if it is not a kind of virus they have adjusted in which case they will also have an example to compare it to.
Reportedly they were studying the bats to see why they can carry viruses without dying from them. They can be infected with coronaviruses, but other things as well, such as rabies, without dying.
Which translates to either looking for some way to attenuate the effect of a virus which is vaccine/care related, or a way to create virus carriers that do not show symptoms, which is weapons. Either way I don’t think the study was about the bats because they do well enough when left alone :/ , maybe it is just how it is phrased i.e. they were using the bats for study, not studying bats which suggests they care that they don’t end up as soup etc.
For comparison, using this week’s CDC numbers for the flu in the U.S., if you get a nasty enough case to get hospitalized, the mortality rate is 5.6%.
Estimates: 26 millions flu cases, 250K hospitalizations, 14K deaths.
Looks like hospitals here and in China have fairly similar guidelines for how sick you have to be, before they consider it “serious” enough to admit you…..
On a related note, one of the most deadly side effects of the Worldwide Army of Pliable Drones’ blind faith that all things done, must be done by a “System” set up for the aggrandizement of some Dear Leader, is the almost cliffwall dropoff in aid/treatment options available for those who happen to fall just outside the criteria for hospitalization.
As opposed to in nearly all other areas, there are virtually no general availability of home use, or “prosumer” medical equipment, nor diagnostics, nor drugs. Nor Youtube videos giving a quick and dirty intro to their use. Just a vast empty. Just like in similarly hung up on “Systems” aggrandizing Kim, North Korea.
Have you visited China in the past year or so? Lack of Youtube and Google, true, but everything else you say is false. FYI, I am not a Chinese but visit there often for work.
I have been to China, but never tried shopping for personal use respirators, CT Scanners nor Tamiflu.
I was mainly referring to the lack of easy availability of any of those in the US.
So hospitalisation for flu in US is 1%, but nCoV in China severe is around 20%. I know we don’t have proper figures for % severe cases or if that is eq. to hospitalisation, but still. The figure for closed cases in China is between 15 and 20% mortality depending on what figures they use ( was 15% over a week ago, went up to 20% then back to around 15% with new data set) . Another Chinese study gave mortality of mild cases at over 1% , not sure how that occurred but guess they weren’t severe for very long .
I take working with any available figures as still a guess for now.
So, if you come down with a serious case of this damn thing, your odds of dying are 1/6.76 versus 1/6 if you were playing Russian Roulette.
You could just start to think of it like seasonal flu, like in China, and try to show a bit of understanding eh ?
Yeah right – like China routinely locks down 60 million people over the flu
Remind me to always include an /s tag…
CDC “..you can start to think about it like seasonal flu. The only difference is we don’t understand this virus “
Having a fairly high risk of it being serious, if you come down with a “serious case” of almost anything, is hardly all that surprising…..