Tech firms court Democrats and prepare for investigations if Republicans lose control of the House.
Get Right with God
The Wall Street Journal reports Corporate America Cut Big Checks to Trump. Now CEOs Fear Subpoenas Are Coming.
Big tech companies, in particular those that made major donations to Trump’s legacy projects, are preparing for congressional and even potential criminal investigations, according to advisers, lobbyists and board members. Washington-based lawyers and lobbyists say that their clients are asking: What are our vulnerabilities?
Meta Platforms and others are writing big checks for Democrats ahead of the midterms, according to people familiar with the matter, a counterbalance to the tens of millions they gave to the White House ballroom and Republican initiatives. Other companies, including Paramount Skydance and Kalshi, are hiring former Democratic aides to bolster their government relations efforts.
Some companies are creating internal task forces to game out responses to potential congressional inquiries, particularly regarding their substantial financial support for Trump and his political operations, according to people involved in the discussions. Meta and Palantir are among the companies whose executives and advisers have discussed the likelihood they will face requests for information, future congressional hearings and even subpoenas, people involved in the discussions said.
Cooper Teboe, a Silicon Valley donor adviser and Democratic strategist, said Democrats could launch a wave of investigations if they take control of the House. His advice to companies who’ve been publicly cozying up to Trump and ignoring Democrats: “Get right with God.”
“You’re going to be totally f—ed next year or you’re going to figure it out this year and you’re going to make amends—and amends are going to be much more costly than they were previously,” he said.
Executives from Amazon, Chevron, Pfizer, UnitedHealth and other big companies attended a summer seminar hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce focused on “managing potential congressional oversight and investigations,” according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
The law firm Cahill held a seminar in June with its congressional investigations group called “On the Hill with Cahill: Playbook for 2026 and Beyond.” It brought together lawyers, executives and congressional staff, along with House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R., Ky.), to discuss how companies should respond when Congress reaches out with subpoenas, according to an invitation reviewed by the Journal and people familiar with the event.
Executives and board members from some large public companies across sectors are discussing how to stay out of Democratic crosshairs and how to stay as neutral as possible, according to people involved in the conversations.
Meta is among a number of companies donating to Democratic political committees, the people familiar with the matter said. In recent months, the company has given $5 million to House Majority Forward, a political nonprofit aligned with House Democratic leadership, and $5 million to Majority Forward, the nonprofit aligned with Senate Democratic leadership, according to the people. Donations to these entities don’t require public disclosure, and they haven’t previously been reported.
Meta also gave $5 million donations this year to Republican leadership House and Senate aligned nonprofits, called American Action Network and One Nation respectively, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Some companies with close ties to Trump have been hiring well-known Democrats. Paramount recently hired Shuwanza Goff, the former legislative director to President Joe Biden, as a vice president of U.S. government affairs.
Kalshi—the prediction market operator that counts the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., as a strategic adviser—has hired a former aide to President Barack Obama, Stephanie Cutter, as a policy adviser, and former Biden aide John Bivona, as head of federal government relations.
Neal Katyal, who served as acting solicitor general during the Obama administration, this year signed Kalshi as a client. He also co-wrote a 2019 bestseller titled “Impeach: The Case Against Donald Trump.”
Think Bigger
It’s about 90 percent likely the Democrats take the House.
I expect Democrats take the Senate as well. I see that as 58 percent odds on, right now. My expectation is this will rise by the election.
A Democrat gain of six seats would not be surprising in the least. That would be a total annihilation, and well deserved.
I reserve the right to change my mind. Things can happen, but Trump is Trump and many things are baked into the cake. He is one of the most unpopular presidents in history.
Popularity aside, Trump is undoubtedly the most arrogant, narcissist, economically illiterate president in history.
That’s going to matter. The elections will show us how much.
PolyMarket
- Polymarket Senate Control is 50-50.
- Polymarket has Texas Senate at 50-49 Democrat
- Polymarket has Ohio Senate as 56-45 Democrat.
- Polymarket has Alaska Senate as 66-35 Democrat.
- Polymarket has Maine Senate as 70-31 Democrat.
- Polymarket has Iowa Senate as 61-41 Republican.
Given those odds, 50-50 Democrat is very underrated.
From my perspective, nothing has changed. My call is “Lean Democrat” on the Senate, not 50-50.
Ohio and Alaska would be net four for the win, without Texas or Iowa.
Blue Wave
Polymarket sees an 81 percent chance of a “Blue Wave“
But that is a loose definition.
This Polymarket market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats have a seat count of 218 or more in the House
- Democrats have a seat count of 49 or more in the Senate
A Blue Wave is winning the House and picking up at least two seats in the Senate.
I am eyeing 225-235 in the House and at least 3 in the Senate, with a 75 percent chance.
Related Posts
August 25, 2026: Cook Political Has Iowa Gov. as Lean Democrat. Texas, Iowa Senate Tossups
Cook Political shifted 4 races to the Left.
Don’t Be Shocked if Democrats Take Six Republican Senate Seats
On August 2, I commented Don’t Be Shocked if Democrats Take Six Republican Senate Seats
The grim setup for Republicans in the midterms keeps building.
Those of you who do not like my analysis based on a combination of polls, expected economic developments, and the betting markets can now reflect of the assessment of Cook Political.
Now that the Hormuz Strait is part of American territory, I wonder who all the people born there will vote for in the American elections?!
Why do you think President Jared met with Dollar Store Obama the other day? To give him their list of expectations once he’s coronated to replace damaged goods Trump.
The DSA hates capitalism.
Such a generalized comment.
There are a lot of examples that would suggest otherwise.
The capitalism in question being fucking kids on an island you flew to in a jet you stole.
This is all a waste. You will get more inflation followed by some kind of debt bomb going off. Bonds are now poison everywhere at the same time.
People have been talking about the “debt bomb” since 10T, 20T, 30T now 40T. Yet no debt bomb ever went off. What did happen was that the Cantillon effect created an ever-widening gap between the haves and the have nots, making it so that the lower half of the nation can experience recessionary times WHILE the official averages all look “fine”. So clearly there is no magic number that triggers the supposed debt bomb, it just turns us more and more into a third world nation the more they print.
Well i think the dems will need to investigate wrong doing. Which the republicans will call a witch hunt to motivate their base and confuse the issue.
I would really like to see the dems actually solve the problems trump and the republicans fake solve.
Imagine if the dems balanced the budget/ meaningful immigration reform. Campaign finance reform. Etc etc and sent it to trump if he vetoed any of bills it would make the voters realize they been duped.
It would be great to solve problems, but you can’t do it if the electorate or the priestly class (the people who live by telling lies) won’t let you, because they won’t let you even suggest doing any of the things you would have to do, to solve the problems.
Here in Australia we have an insoluble problem of attempting to raise the standards of our aboriginal race to that of the evil white invaders. In other words, their life expectancy should be the same, their educational outcomes should be the same, etc. It’s impossible, because they were adapted to a hunter-gather existence, some of them in deep desert conditions. One of their “leaders” wrote an essay in one of our newspapers a few years ago, suggesting that what a business would do, would be to change the people trying to do the job, if the people trying to do it now were not succeeding. That would be rational if you were in fact talking about something that could be done.
What actually happens is that ever-increasing amounts of money are thrown at the problem, and it is eaten up by the bureaucrats, white and black, who are pretending to try to solve the problem.
Yeah you’re racist bud
To all the people below who say that democracy doesn’t work, etc., I say that it works fallibly and slowly. You can look at it as a safety valve that saves the priestly class from destruction when they go too far, too fast.
At the moment, it seems to be rejecting, at last, the doctrine that Jews are better than humanity and that they have a perfect right to do what they like with us and to tell us what to believe.
I don’t think Moslems should ever have been allowed to immigrate to civilized countries, and I understand that socialism doesn’t work and can’t work, but if I had been a New Yorker, I might have been tempted to vote for Mamdani just for the sake of taking away Jewish control. I might not be the only one who thinks like that.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/does-president-trump-have-any-idea-what-passports-are-for/#comment-449328
Reminder that Arthur is a racist AND a pedophile! His mother must be so proud!
My mother is long dead, and despite what you Christians might think, she now knows nothing, because she doesn’t exist any more. Try to grow up.
Terrific news as it indicates a better chance for an early exit for the deranged clown in dc.
> Popularity aside, Trump is undoubtedly the most arrogant, narcissist, economically illiterate president in history.
Better the devil you know?
Josh Shapiro Is A Brand New Upgraded “Democratic” Rising Star, Way More Dangerous Than Even Previous Ones. Why Didn’t We See Him Coming?
https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/josh-shapiro-is-a-brand-new-upgraded?
TPTB love gridlock, because during gridlock it is easier to sell voters the “necessity of compromise” which basically means “pork for everyone”.
In contrast, whenever one party holds enough power to promote their agenda unopposed, it becomes obvious to voters that the party they voted for is betraying them.
The politicians represent the people that pay them, pay their friends, pay their families, invite them to Epstein island, etc.
It’s a “big club”. A big criminal club. A mafia.
Dont ever refer to it as a “democracy”.
Same goes in Europe.
TPTB gave the people some bennies after ww2. They’ve been taking it back.
IMO Hunter S. Thompson was probably correct about progress reaching a “high-water mark” in the early 1970s.
Dont bother following races between D and R. I hope some of you run for your HR district or campaign to elect a neighbor you personally know.
And if you think it’s hopeless, then head away from Oceania to Eurasia or Eastasia. Ask an LLM for suggestions appropriate to your situation that satisfies your criteria.
I think Thompson was talking about the middle class. He was right – it’s been downhill since 1975.
i suppose you have never visited or studied autocracies and dictatorships. if you don’t think amerika is a democracy, i have a bridge in my hometown of brooklyn to sell you. whether there is money involved in democracies is besides the point. wait until Donald or Gavin or Barack tell you there won’t be any votes and they are dictators for life. you might have to ponder that. same goes for your local county offices……..
It is a democracy, but it’s rapidly failing into an autocracy on par with China (who also holds elections). The only issue is that China runs much better under that model while we are drowning.
The voting is an important safety valve, to give the hoi polloi the mistaken impression that they have a say and that their voice counts.
After all, they have elections in just about every high school.
its a kleptocracy, not a democracy.
The U.S. is a constitutional republic, not a democracy. The Bill of Rights is anti democratic. Congress cannot eliminate them by a majority vote, as they are Constitutional Rights.
On paper, that’s a good clarification. But the executive and the legislators have been trampling over the BoR for a long time. There was some progress through the 1960s, albeit with some hiccups. But it has been backward from there.
Regarding the clarification regarding republic versus democracy, remember that all the marketing continues to be about “democracy”. TPTB emphasise “one person, one vote” and claim the “representatives” represent the people, thereby creating a democracy in a land where direct democracy would be impractical.
I’m unsure whether you’re saying “dont expect/demand democracy, because this is a ‘republic’” alone or also implying “and I like ‘republic’”. One is a fact. One is a preference that, *if* it is your preference, I wouldn’t share.
Same donors, same agenda, uniparty hedging…., heads i win tails your screwed!
Duh…..
These bribery culture is too deep in US democracy.
You forgot the air quotes around the last word.
It comes down to whether the voter is part of the government industrial complex (teacher unions, NGO, educators, government program receipent, braindead basement dwelling socialists) or someone worried about their job. Trump reflects the value of the employed. He will not flood the country with foreign workers, who commit CRIME, raise RENT and live off the government. WE DO NOT WANT TO BE CANADA.
Half the article is about META donations and this is shocking because they just paid a major fine but a drop in the bucket for META earnings and the other half about the betting market which is influenced by the media narrative.
The value of the employed is apparently their ability to rapidly unemploy themselves with tariffs, high gas prices, and uncompetitive trade practices that make the employed’s jobs move somewhere else.
What do educators know anyways? We be smart on we own! We be BIGLY strong just like gorilla! Me vote red because me hear they big strong ‘ganst eerain an’ vuvuzuela! GO TEAM USA!!!!!
Here’s the sad commentary about the post. Mish’s words, not mine..They are making donations not to fix any of the things this blog posts about…they are worried about investigations. I know of no independent considering switching to blue that says, “it’s because we need to investigate these companies”. But the companies know the Dems better than the voting bloc. If all we’re gonna do is go back to 2021-2025, weaponize the government, investigate, impeach …well what ta hell kinda message/improvement is that. Sad actually.
At least polymarket has the Iowa lean correct, I’ve written comments about this many times. It ain’t going blue no matter the price of diesel, beef, corn, etc. Culturally the left is wrong to them (and me) but lots of folks are unhappy so they’ll vote them in again elsewhere and we’ll revisit absolute cultural nonsense for at least 2 years and no meaningful helpful legislation will happen. I’m still convinced we need a divorce.
The reason for the investigations is because those in power don’t really want to do any actual governing. They just want to remain in power in order to keep collecting their money.
The easiest way to do that is to investigate those who have money which generates political donations (or fines if it goes that far). It also gives the appearance of ‘doing something’ to the voters (protecting them from some Hobgoblin).
correct. many people in flyover country view jesus and hating on dems as their real self interest. more important than prices of food or fuel. hell, many of them could afford to lose 100lbs and still be alright. democracy works. assholes elect assholes to do asshole things. D and R and israelis
Yes, because both parties are different when it comes to capitalism and corruption /s
The CEOs will be happy whether it’s a repub or dem, as long as the money printer keeps going ‘Brrrrrrr’.
You think an American billionaire really cares? It’s just a fun game to them.
TL:DR it’s important to get with the winning side, and Trump does not look like a winner ATM.
CEOs and other sociopaths care nothing about ideology, except to the extent that it can be weaponized.
Is ATM for Automated Teller Machine, At The Moment, or Ass To Mouth?
You are referring to Trump, hard to know which applies here
ha ha ha. all 3
It’s not a great option, as the Democrats have been useless for decades, but Trump is going off the deep end again. The Lake America thing is pathetic
lake epstein is the new name, here in upstate NY
Omg…that is delicious.
The controlled opposition party is nothing to fear.
DSA doesn’t have enough control yet, but they will eventually one way or another. It’s inevitable.
And when that happens things will finally get interesting.
If the establishment is good at nothing else, it is very good at determining whom to buy off, whom to co-opt, whom to neutralize, whom to ignore.
You’re right that’s all they’re good at, but we’re reaching the limit of that. They want to inflate the debt away like the economic repression after WWII. They think it worked then, it’ll work again, but our position was so favorable that anything would’ve worked then.
Trying that again will trigger unrest the likes of which nobody has seen before because there won’t be real growth. AI isn’t it. AI only makes money if it can eliminate jobs. Mish has talked about it before.
So it’s the same kind of feedback loop of exponentially increasing and spreading out risk as the 08 mortgage crisis. Endless risk-on with nothing real underneath. Except that time it was to provide housing. This time people have a visceral hate for the product and the people behind it.
Economic Repression is their Plan A
Totalitarian Dominance / The Great Reset / CBDC is their Plan B
Neither will work. Both paths lead to people turning to socialism because the prices are going to get out of control. Doesn’t matter who they buy off or neutralize. It’ll be elections or other means. It’s inevitable at this point.
Read C. S. Lewis on The Inner Ring.
Home construction in the US is about to get more expensive. Heckuva job, Donny.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/trump-lumber-tariffs-british-columbia-tariffs-9.7323107
US‑Canada trade war deepens as Trump revives Depression‑era trade tool – what’s at stake for consumers and the midterms
https://theconversation.com/us-canada-trade-war-deepens-as-trump-revives-depression-era-trade-tool-whats-at-stake-for-consumers-and-the-midterms-290569
Politically, there is nothing more important in the world than minimizing the power of the psychopath Trump. I’m voting party-line Democrat. It’s the only power I have and it will maximize the chances of the right thing happening.
Crime or War? I choose war against nuclear mad men, money and drug laundering cartels, socialist governments leaning on American good will for their own defense, unlimited immigration,currency manipulators and communist who kill their own people. Let us be insane and keep trying the same thing over and over that does not work; Socialism. Evil persists when good men do nothing.
Do tell us about the horrors of those things in Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and the other European Socialist hellholes.
O goodie. Temu JoJo speaks.
” I choose war against nuclear mad men, money and drug laundering cartels, socialist governments leaning on American good will for their own defense, unlimited immigration,currency manipulators and communist who kill their own people.”
So go get on the USS Theodore Roosevelt, then.
As long as Trump continues the war on Iran, AIPAC democrats will be allowed to scream about the war all they want but will not mount any effective impeachment effort. If Trump drops the ball then his AIPAC insurance policy is void.
correct. lobbying is the ultimate form of democracy. has been around since the ancient roman bread company underwrote the news coming out of senate.
AIPAC Dems are on their way out.
Team D loves that sweet sweet SuperPAC cash as much as Team R.
I don’t think people will forget who was standing on stage on January 20, 2025
The shift in where/how people take in news is dramatic. The establishment MSM has been losing to the internets independent journalists. Those journalists have been fighting demonetization, algorithms, and censorship by those same people. Journalists trying to cover their bills while the oligarchs play in billion dollar yachts is bad optics.
People are sick of the bullshit and Trump will do nothing to help people forget that it’s a Republican play to support Israel, abortion bans, concentration camps, armed ice gangs, illegal wars, recalls, climate denials, and an arbitrary destruction of Washington DC and so much more.
They even hate Democrats for their flaccid response over the last 12 years. Cozying up to oligarchs will not be overlooked. Look what association with AIPAC is doing to them.
You might expect them to forget if there’s an upswing for America in ’28 but we are only starting to burst that data center/Ai bubble. Once it breaks and Trump steps in to fix it there won’t be anyone unaware of who brought this on the world.
The data centers are important because it’s not some intangible. It’s impacting counties everywhere, close to home. Electricity rates become personal reminders every month.
This could become consecutive blue waves in ’26 & ’28.
“This could become consecutive blue waves in ’26 & ’28.”
See: 2006 and 2008. That is – expect a lot of southing and very little in the way of concrete results.
When Obama was elected in 2008, he enjoyed a huge majority in the House, a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, a friendly Supreme Court, Wall Street begging for rescue on any terms, an MSM that unironically compared him to Jesus Christ and also to Neo from “The Matrix”, not to mention the biggest popular support for radical reform arguably going back to 1932.
The closest thing to one-party rule in generations, and what did Obama do with it? More wars, more free money for his rich buddies, and his signature legislative achievement was a giant gimme to the insurance industry.
Leaving the birth certificate stuff aside, Obama was obviously shepherded by the establishment – Brzezinski, Pritzkers etc. He was obviously spotted by talent scouts at an early age as an up and comer.
i think Bob Rubin was the talent scout on that MICC nihilist.
He bailed out the banks while letting the banks kick the people out of their houses.
I understand your point but maybe, just maybe, this time is different.
Your faith is touching.
Don’t know how sarcastic you intended to be but comparing Obama to Trump is pretty bold. The difference is black and white.
Obama is a better human being than Trump.
He isn’t an amoral individual.
He didn’t disrupt the global economy, he responded to a disaster not if his own making. I’m not discussing the merits of his actions, just that he didn’t create it.
Obama didn’t start trade wars, create roving gangs or concentration camps.
Obama isn’t responsible for people getting executed in the streets.
He didn’t start ways to distract from his 38,000 references in the Epstein files or block investigations on sex trafficking and rape.
These things may cause a different response and be remembered differently than what Obama did.
Tom, I’m as independent as they come.
Yes, Obama did “start” wars. The D and R press mostly did not and do not remind readers of Libya and adjacent. You should read independent anti-war and geopolitical blogs to get a better sense of the “continuity of agenda” regardless of figurehead.
Obama bailed out banks while letting the bank evict 5m families from their homes.
Obama *did* continue blocking the Epstein investigations. It’s clear to me now that everyone at the top knew what was going on for decades. The first Epstein investigation began decades ago and stayed hush throughout Obama’s tenure as figurehead. Obama is as guilty as the others in suppressing.
Obama started “the pivot to Asia” and continued building the MIC. Just as trump is as guilty as biden of the nato-russia war via proxy Ukraine because he (proudly, no less) armed them and presided over NATO-ukraine exercises, so too is Obama guilty of all the subsequent wars he helped stage.
The swamp in action – the dems are licking their lips at the money trough as the plutocrats want to buy absolution. Nothing will effectively change for the US citizenry until we have a constitutional amendment to reform money in politics. When the primary goal of an election
is to limit the damage from a ignorant man child that mirrors the culture, it makes clear how far the US has fallen. The rest of the world just looks on in disbelief while moving on without us
“Our Democracy” what a joke!
our democracy works perfectly. the us congress people are perfect reflections of their constituents. from brain dead mitch to loud mouth chuckie to donald from queens. amerikans are so stupid they don’t know how wonderfully successful democracy works. assholes elect assholes.
Ever see the video of all the local news readers reading the identical assigned script on “protecting our democracy” from non-approved news sources?
I love those!
The Matt Orfelea video of “Ukraine is winning” is pretty (sadly) funny too.
Sigh…poor ordinary Ukrainians…used by their “friends”.
It’s the economy, Stupid
I usually agree with Mish, but I’ll go out on a limb here and say that I don’t believe Dems will amount to anything. Dump’s trump card is mail in ballots.
2026 election will be a clusterfuck. by 2028 election a few states will effectively secede from the union.
Pledge to Allegiance
“Indivisible”
Not happening
The States never surrendered their right to secede by the same method they joined. (In fact, 3 specified that they retained that right.) Lincoln invaded, raped, and destroyed the States claiming that right. Might destroyed the right. So I dunno.
But if the States’ right to secede had not been arbitrarily ended by Lincoln’s dictate, the Federal government would have behaved much better than it has since 1861, much less of a bully. Much less war prone.
Yes, especially ones with younger populations.
It’s quite likely that widespread mail in voting restrictions hurt republicans more than democrats (they are older and more rural). So republicans would need _targeted_ restrictions to help themselves but it’s probably a) illegal and b) beyond their competence.
The Dems aren’t appealing to most of us. There isn’t anything for straight white males, only special treatment for deviants, minorities, women and illegals. I doubt if I will vote. It’s a waste of time.
What do you want for straight, white males?
He needs to be reminded not to grab his buddy’s junk, so he wants the gobermint to do it fur him
More than the everything they have, apparently. Or he can be hysterical and say the white man is the true victim in today’s world.
Family blog!
Idiots like you who think it’s the government’s job to solve grievances in your personal life are the problem. Women, minorities, and illegals aren’t the ones debasing the currency. Have some personal accountability for your personality and life choices, but you won’t. You’ll vote for the ones robbing all of us, and they’ll get everything. They’ll make social security disappear. They’ll make your money worthless, and they’ll sell their stocks before you. Yes, they can and they will.
But hey, at least the deviants, minorities, women, and illegals will be put in their place.
So in the end, you’ll own nothing and be happy after all.
Do you’re saying you’re pro deviants and pro illegals, got it
There are many straight white males in the DSA – but they’re young (30s, 40s).
And they have more tolerance towards the groups you mentioned.
“The Dems aren’t appealing to most of us”
That was certainly true in the 2024 election, but they are now focused on the message of affordability (because it has done well in recent elections and polling), which should appeal to a much broader group of people.
Of course, what politicians say means very little and Uniparty politicians care much more about its donors than its voters.
I think the principal lesson from the last two years for the US voters is that do not give a trifecta to one particular party
Ever wonder what % of Americans can define a trifecta?
Haha….
Analysis is probably correct but will it matter?
nope. Donald will just be more aggressive in waging wars etc…….to distract and keep popular. the amerikan people love their wars. democracy works. assholes elect assholes to do asshole things. this includes boomers of course, but also the younger generations, too.
You’re covering all of the bases to try and convince everyone you’re not wearing a dunce cap.
nope. you just can’t admit you voted for assholes your entire life. democracy works. always has.
Taco: I will be persecuted like no one else has ever been in the history of the world! No one’s seen anything like! I am the greatest victim of all time. But I fight them, fight them all with both hands tied behind my back. I will never give them the satisfaction.
What do you suppose the House will ask when they subpoena Hegseth? “Did the president know you were killing “drug runners” and when did he know it?”
That my friend is the title of a future Mish commentary….I give it 80% odds.
It matters to the CEOs who are having to dish out twice as many bribes now that they have to do it for both parties 😂