The CPI report for April is tomorrow. Here’s a look further ahead. 
Month-Over-Month Inflation Nowcast
- April CPI: 0.45 percent
- April Core CPI: 0.21 percent
- April PCE: 0.39 percent
- April Cor PCE: 0.26 percent
- May CPI: 0.42 percent
- May Core CPI: 0.21 percent
- May PCE: 0.38 percent
- May Core PCE: 0.27 percent
Year-Over-Year Inflation Nowcast
- April CPI: 3.56 percent
- April Core CPI: 2.56 percent
- April PCE: 3.73 percent
- April Cor PCE: 3.28 percent
- May CPI: 3.89 percent
- May Core CPI: 2.61 percent
- May PCE: 3.93 percent
- May Core PCE: 3.32 percent
The core numbers exclude food and energy.
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is PCE, expected to hit 3.93 percent for May, with core PCE at 3.32 percent.
Baptism of Fire Coming Up
The May PCE numbers are due June 10. That’s just in time for Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair.
Trump expects Warsh to deliver a rate cut. I believe the Fed bias will be shift to tighten from neutral.
Warsh’s first press conference rates to be a real hoot.
Musical Tribute
The even bigger hoot will come from President Trump immediately following the FOMC decision.
Tomorrow we have the April CPI numbers. The flames get hotter in May.
Every day the strait does not open is another day of positive price inflation pressures. If the strait is closed for another month, I think we have an inflation and an energy disaster.
For discussion, please see Oil Market Will Lose 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed
Trump’s Three Losing Options
- War with unknown consequences
- A humiliating deal that lets oil pass through while negotiations continue
- Status quo and rising inflation, gasoline prices, fertilizer prices, diesel, etc.
So which is it?
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Whirlpool eliminates its dividend and cut its forecast citing tariffs, inflation, and debt.
May 11, 2026: Existing-Home Sales Flounder for Over Three Years, What’s Going On?
Sales have gone nowhere for over 3 years. Median price keeps rising.
They still haven’t properly accounted for health insurance premium increases.
Since Mish hasn’t posted a CPI report, here’s a nice breakdown from CNBC.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/inflation-breakdown-for-april-2026-cpi-chart.html
Everyone’s talking about fuel but electricity is up 6.1%, airline fares 20.7%, fruits and veggies up 6.1%
There are now almost 40 TRILLION reasons why all paths forward lead to higher and higher inflation.
Good thing fuel & food are excluded.
Appreciate the sarcasm
You gotta expect that if Iran is not sorted out in about a month there will be a rate increase. Even Trump cannot be so stupid to let this carry on into the summer.
Bombing Iran is not going to resolve this in a month. I don’t think Iran would even agree to go back to the Obama deal since they now know they have the straight as effective leverage.
Would it make sense for the US to offer to help build Iran a nuclear energy plant(s) using their enriched uranium? This would be one way to try and insure that it is used for peaceful purposes.
They need to start thinking outside the box on this. We can all laugh as Trump goes crazy trying to appear the strong man and tying himself in knots trying to convince everyone he is right but in the end we are all going to continue to suffer from his stupidity either in higher costs or eventually higher taxes and likely both and for what?
The US was never under any kind of threat and it looks like Israel can take care of itself. The US doesn’t seem to need the Middle East so what are we doing there?
As long as he has power, the world will suffer from his stupidity. The only solution is to get him out.
They already have one nuclear plant in operation and another under construction…they’ve got China and Russia to partner with if they need to.
Why would they ever partner with the US? So US could bomb them harder,daddy?
Punch me in the face and tell me I’m a good girl daddy.
You’re too old for the pedo in chief.
But he’ll punch your daughter.
The entire reason they want to have their own supply of enriching uranium for civilian purposes (medicine; electricity for desalination) is that 46 years of sanctions have taught them you have to have your own supply & production of everything (autarky).
Trump: Here, hold my beer.
What does Israel demand?
Just think – we’re only 2 days away from the 78th anniversary of when Harry Truman started this mess.
April CPI 0.6% – Red hot!
The all items index rose 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April, after rising 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending March. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the year, following a 2.6 percent increase over the 12 months ending March. The energy index increased 17.9 percent for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.
Rate cuts? Lol!
Middle East conflict pushes sulphur and acid prices to new heights
https://www.crugroup.com/en/communities/thought-leadership/2026/middle-east-conflict-pushes-sulphur-and-acid-prices-to-new-heights/
Rise & shine, the long bonds are at 5% and July brent is at $107.53.
oh the profits!
Iran’s banks defy Trump financial sanctions to keep business as usual for regimeThe US president’s hopes of bringing the Iranian economy to its knees are being thwarted on multiple fronts
https://observer.co.uk/news/international/article/irans-banks-defy-trump-financial-sanctions-to-keep-business-as-usual-for-regime
WTI crude is again above the $100 threshold.
Canadian crude that is refined into regular gasoline in the U.S. was $2.69 the day of the election is now $5.09 at the same filling station and diesel is now $6.50.
Inflation grenades have been rolled into many markets and it is clear that manufacturers and retailers are not passing on the opportunity to raise prices to maintain or increase margins. ARAMCO’s profits are up 25% even with its Persian Gulf operations damaged and off-line.
Explosive price moves are coming for food, copper, aluminum, sulphur, fertilizers of multiple types on top of the doubling of energy prices.
Elections have consequences!
I notice you do not mention labor. Again, the American laborer, working, unemployed and retired gets shafted by the government no matter the party in control.
America has had the luxury of being able to export inflation, but we did a poor job over the last fifty years given our current position. With diminishing confidence in the dollar, it becomes less desirable and exporting inflation becomes more difficult. I’m taking the over on the inflation projections Mish has reported.
Yes and labor has the slowest access to capitol as raises do not come quickly enough to offset costs. Falling behind is not a great position to be in and eventually many simply give up and end up applying for social programs (never to return to the productive labor force).
As an employer, I give early raises and bonuses during times like this. It reduces turnover and creates a team atmosphere where everyone looks out for ways to be more efficient and aware of potential problems.
In my experience Trumps bullying for every dime does not work in the long term. Bullies get kicked in the nuts eventually…
– WTI crude is again above the $100 threshold. > Expected, and yes the prices have climbed for all energy needs. Your ex. of Aramco is not surprising, as of 2024 they were the fourth largest company in the World by Revenue. They also have the largest proven crude oil reserves with more than 270 Billion Barrels available.
– Explosive price moves are coming for food, copper, aluminum, sulphur, fertilizers etc. > Yes they are, and this will persist for as long as needed. We don’t have control over much of this. Nobody really does do they? You have your own needs, which are probably falling short, then you have the have nots, that need everything, but not much is available. Past Administrations have gotten us into this mess, for all sorts of reasons, and far too many to cover on a blog, but not too many to overcome. This is what is going on now.
> Power & Control requirements, by many in Politics and Upper levels of our Government, are the true culprits. Look at all the actual corruption that has been taking place over the past 4 Years alone!! It’s disgusting to have watched an Auto Pen by Obama potentially, be so devastating to America. Pure Greed by many of the Political Parties… Both sides!
– Elections have consequences! > True, and thank goodness for whom we have in office! Could you even begin to imagine, what another 4 Years of the Auto Pen would have accomplished, for the Destruction of America as we knew/know it to be? We would all be broke and destitute by now!
Ahhhhhh! Drinking that Agent Orange flavored Kool-Aid…
It’s a bot. It can’t drink Koolaid,.. it IS Koolaid.
Thanks for calling me cool, and being an aid and all, but I prefer the background, quiet approach myself…
Prefer water, but pointing out the obvious is what I think you meant to say? Unless of course, you were happy with Mr. auto Pen, and what that did to Our Country. I was not at all! Is Trump better? A Cat would be better than what we had with Auto Pen, so of course he is. Is Trump the answer? To ditch the Pen, Yes!!! To accomplish positive movement forward, in comparison to Auto Pen? So far, it’s certainly not any worse. I would say better, but I’m not happy with a few miss the mark issues personally. At least a Human Being is in charge at the moment, even after attempts otherwise. That Auto Pen sure has an awful lot of Supporters, and people reliant upon it. They will do anything to keep it filled with ink…
Of course a cat would be better.
$100 — The hopium price
That is what speculators are betting on, incredulous at the present, still betting on things getting resolved.
Physical prices are different: $140-$150
Purchases as high as $261 have been noted.
Inputs are still being buffered by strategic reserves, momentum, buffers of floating tankers (including sanctioned oil).
Warsh is a political operative. I suspect he will be Trump’s Bessent at the Fed. That being said, he can’t overrule everyone at FOMC
Once in place, Trump can’t remove him. He knows that. He will do whatever he wants regardless of the existing political environment.
nor can he override market forces indefinitly.
Probably his biggest fear, if it cannot be pulled back together soon enough, he will be gone or at least potentially ignored at that point. We shall see soon enough. Iran will be capping soon enough, and that’s when choices will have to be made by everyone…
We’re facing disaster because Trump can simply go back and forth indefinitely, at least until the mid-terms. Maybe we bomb, maybe we don’t and never truly ending this foolish conflict – while the world economy slides into recession and debt collapse. Stop trying to discern any strategy, this is simply an 80 year old man acting out with no way to remove him from power.
To be fair to our elders, there are many, many 80 year olds who could do a better job than this one. In some ways it’s helpful that he’s incapacitated.
Eh, like Biden, that just means that his unelected and entirely unaccountable minions have free rein.
And a lot of 8 year-olds too.
Probably a bright 8th grader would have a greater command of the facts.
meanwhile: America is experiencing a productivity miracleAI hasn’t—yet—got much to do with it
America is experiencing a productivity miracle
The Economist — now that’s reliable info!
1) China is experiencing a productivity miracle because they keep sending us incredibly cheap goods – that tend to hold down inflation here. BYD was termed an existential threat (Ford)
2) OK, if the US is experiencing an actual productivity miracle, then inflation shouldn’t be a problem…. as we would get more stuff for the same $. I would add that AI is, at least at present, a common drain on productivity because it’s a continuing disaster in services – because Chats and such don’t work. I wasted $160 on an AT&T phone and gave up because of robot replies frustration – and many people are angry. Even talking to a guy in Mumbai who speaks broken English, after a half hour of waiting is better.
COVID was the key. Labor is traditionally inflexible. People would rather stay in a poor, under performing company for lower pay and security than strike out and risk a new start with a higher performing company. The Trump induced COVID crash gave workers the opportunity to explore new horizons once Biden reopened the economy. The initial labor crisis and higher wages also forced business owners to invest in training and productivity boosting processes and machinery. I would say this is a one time jump, but it looks like Trump might crash the economy again.
If another month is a disaster, what is another year?
If it keeps like this to midterms there won’t be a Republican left unimpeached by this time next year.
I wish that were true but you can depend on the democrats to do nothing. Once they get elected the easy ride will seduce them and they simply won’t risk their reelection by rocking the boat.
They tried that, it got them Trump 2.0 in a landslide. If they’d like to keep doing it we simply won’t have either party when this eventually collapses fully.
The entire western world is underestimating the chaos the oil disruption will cause in a month or two. As PapaDave pointed out, the world was lucky so much sanctioned oil was floating in the ocean on ships but that juice is gone.
There’s a reason my tag lines have been:
“It’s Trump turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!”
and
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
When a leader is so egotistical, self-serving, self-aggrandizing, and self-absorbed, there was only one way this was going to turn out, and everyone is now living it. It’s a literal preview of hell where the master down there works the same way, his glory at the expense of your misery. A perfect reflection of the boomer base that supported this fool, you reap what you sow suckers.
Got exit strategy?
P.S. The further you live away from an oil hub or port, the higher your level of misery so prepare accordingly.
2-star Mishelin award granted.
Papa Dave is wrong.
Liberal economics teaches us that where there is demand, the market will supply.
And what does that same economics teach us about price, when demand outpaces supply?
And who doesn’t think they’ll do everything possible to understate the numbers so as not to get the wrath of orangeman
Agent Orange
If this inflation happens, china has a huge opportunity to put Trump in his cage and the US on its back foot. Every one of his policies is inflationary. The only way back is through disinflationary globalization. And guess who holds those cards now, iran on energy, china on goods
Trump is an idiot, plain and simple. Just like his mother famously said
China & Russia don’t want the US on the back foot.
They want the febrile giant to land softly instead of to crash land.
Debts defaults are growing and deflationary, so it will be a deflationary depression.
Strongly disagree. The concept of deflation in a fiat U.S. dollar economy is ludicrous. A fiat dollar increasing in worth? Never going to happen again.
It happened *very* briefly in early 2009 and then it ended with the bailouts and handouts. They WILL print, just like they did in 2008 & 2020.
Money is borrowed into existence.
Someone needs to take on the liability.
All examples of hyper-inflation feature economies with currency depreciating in foreign exchange (imports; reparations) where they could not print enough currency to enable transactions
The US economy is only partly dependent on exports, and everyone keeps exporting to get hold of the reserve currency. Almost all transaction works on credit, and it is credit destruction (bankruptcy; recession) which deflates and destroys money.
Historical examples cannot be applied; never be too sure.
Energy costs influence all other costs. End of story.
I used to be a Stock Analyst at a top shop. Indeed, oil was the common proxy to be a primary driver of costs.
And #2 is incredibly even worse. Biggest chemcial used in the world is sulphuric acid. And it’s trippled in the last few months. (Middle East refinery damage has killed a lot of product supply. Along with shipping issues too boot.) THIS one will really start driving raw material costs.
Correct on sulphur! Fully 50% of global sulphur supply came from the gulf.
Sulphur is vital for copper and fertilizer production and not only did we lose fertilizer and urea from the gulf we are losing production of fertilizers from all over Northern Africa and Western Asia because of the sulphur shortage.
Starvation to follow…
Interesting coincidence that we are getting a super El Nino summer, which also has led to crop failures and starvation in the past.
The perfect cover story for the powers that be then …
Also allows them to turbo-charge their climate narratives as well as their apologetics for global governance.
Energy use is a better proxy for economic power than GDP.
Production, prosperity, and energy use are highly correlated across nations.
Well put! Inflationary recession eruption ahead? How many unintended, unforeseen consequences are embedded in this, to come erupting out like a perforated toothpaste tube? My only consolation is the “fun to watch” factor: watching these oleaginous “leaders” trying to squirm rhetorically through this mess: better than a White House wrestling fandango! Wow, quagmires abroad and at home. Free entertainment!
Oleaginous, take my upvote
Not sure how much more the Taco lemmings can take of their leader and his moribund economy.
It’s all Obama’s fault.
Biden & Obama had quite the “Bromance back then, according to the media. They were best buds! There records were equally dismal some could say. It wasn’t until the Auto Pen arrived, that things got dicey, and then completely out of hand… They became different people after that, and nothing alike at all, except the economies left behind by them both.
By definition, lemmings follow their leader off a cliff.
**By erroneous definition…
https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=wildlifenews.view_article&articles_id=56
So, Lemmings are actually smarter than MAGATs … thanks!
Deep down you may have suspected it all along 🙃
As of early 2026, the U.S. economy is in a recovery phase following significant fluctuations over the past 20 years. The economy had just lived through a recession from 2007 to 2009, followed by a prolonged recovery that peaked in early 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic then caused a sharp contraction, but recent indicators show a positive trend.
Economic Growth Rate In the first quarter of 2026, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% and the fourth quarter of 2025 showed a .05% growth. So things are moving in the right direction, compared to the past Administration. Not great, it a heck of a lot better than we had been seeing, so we got that… When you see a positive reading, embrace it I say!