The CPI report for April is tomorrow. Here’s a look further ahead. 
Month-Over-Month Inflation Nowcast
- April CPI: 0.45 percent
- April Core CPI: 0.21 percent
- April PCE: 0.39 percent
- April Cor PCE: 0.26 percent
- May CPI: 0.42 percent
- May Core CPI: 0.21 percent
- May PCE: 0.38 percent
- May Core PCE: 0.27 percent
Year-Over-Year Inflation Nowcast
- April CPI: 3.56 percent
- April Core CPI: 2.56 percent
- April PCE: 3.73 percent
- April Cor PCE: 3.28 percent
- May CPI: 3.89 percent
- May Core CPI: 2.61 percent
- May PCE: 3.93 percent
- May Core PCE: 3.32 percent
The core numbers exclude food and energy.
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is PCE, expected to hit 3.93 percent for May, with core PCE at 3.32 percent.
Baptism of Fire Coming Up
The May PCE numbers are due June 10. That’s just in time for Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair.
Trump expects Warsh to deliver a rate cut. I believe the Fed bias will be shift to tighten from neutral.
Warsh’s first press conference rates to be a real hoot.
Musical Tribute
The even bigger hoot will come from President Trump immediately following the FOMC decision.
Tomorrow we have the April CPI numbers. The flames get hotter in May.
Every day the strait does not open is another day of positive price inflation pressures. If the strait is closed for another month, I think we have an inflation and an energy disaster.
For discussion, please see Oil Market Will Lose 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed
Trump’s Three Losing Options
- War with unknown consequences
- A humiliating deal that lets oil pass through while negotiations continue
- Status quo and rising inflation, gasoline prices, fertilizer prices, diesel, etc.
So which is it?
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meanwhile: America is experiencing a productivity miracleAI hasn’t—yet—got much to do with it
America is experiencing a productivity miracle
If another month is a disaster, what is another year?
The entire western world is underestimating the chaos the oil disruption will cause in a month or two. As PapaDave pointed out, the world was lucky so much sanctioned oil was floating in the ocean on ships but that juice is gone.
There’s a reason my tag lines have been:
“It’s Trump turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!”
and
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
When a leader is so egotistical, self-serving, self-aggrandizing, and self-absorbed, there was only one way this was going to turn out, and everyone is now living it. It’s a literal preview of hell where the master down there works the same way, his glory at the expense of your misery. A perfect reflection of the boomer base that supported this fool, you reap what you sow suckers.
Got exit strategy?
P.S. The further you live away from an oil hub or port, the higher your level of misery so prepare accordingly.
2-star Mishelin award granted.
And who doesn’t think they’ll do everything possible to understate the numbers so as not to get the wrath of orangeman
If this inflation happens, china has a huge opportunity to put Trump in his cage and the US on its back foot. Every one of his policies is inflationary. The only way back is through disinflationary globalization. And guess who holds those cards now, iran on energy, china on goods
Trump is an idiot, plain and simple. Just like his mother famously said
Debts defaults are growing and deflationary, so it will be a deflationary depression.
Strongly disagree. The concept of deflation in a fiat U.S. dollar economy is ludicrous. A fiat dollar increasing in worth? Never going to happen again.
It happened *very* briefly in early 2009 and then it ended with the bailouts and handouts. They WILL print, just like they did in 2008 & 2020.
Energy costs influence all other costs. End of story.
I used to be a Stock Analyst at a top shop. Indeed, oil was the common proxy to be a primary driver of costs.
And #2 is incredibly even worse. Biggest chemcial used in the world is sulphuric acid. And it’s trippled in the last few months. (Middle East refinery damage has killed a lot of product supply. Along with shipping issues too boot.) THIS one will really start driving raw material costs.
Well put! Inflationary recession eruption ahead? How many unintended, unforeseen consequences are embedded in this, to come erupting out like a perforated toothpaste tube? My only consolation is the “fun to watch” factor: watching these oleaginous “leaders” trying to squirm rhetorically through this mess: better than a White House wrestling fandango! Wow, quagmires abroad and at home. Free entertainment!
Not sure how much more the Taco lemmings can take of their leader and his moribund economy.
It’s all Obama’s fault.