Trump says the cease-fire is on life support. So what? 
On Life Support
President Trump told reporters today the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is “on massive life support,” directly criticizing Iran’s latest peace proposal as a “piece of garbage” and “stupid.”
“After reading that piece of garbage they sent us, I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support”
He also said he didn’t read it.
Iran’s Response
Here’s Iran’s response.
“Our armed forces are ready to deliver a well-deserved response to any aggression; mistaken strategy and mistaken decisions will always lead to mistaken results— the whole world has already figured this out. We are prepared for all options; they will be surprised.”
Staggeringly Expensive
In an exaggerated headline (but the right direction), The Hill reports Trump’s chaotic war is bankrupting America
Does anyone in America know what President Trump is doing in the Strait of Hormuz? Does Trump himself know?
On Sunday, he boldly announced “Project Freedom,” his scheme to escort commercial ships through the shuttered strait. He then swiftly reversed course just two days later, declaring that the strait would remain closed, even as Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth was selling Project Freedom to the press. As Hegseth touted a plan that no longer existed, Trump again changed his timeline for ending his increasingly unpopular war in Iran.
Trump’s impulsive and contradictory actions in Iran have confounded his generals, his Cabinet and the public since the war began 10 weeks ago. Trump is now so bogged down that he is confounding himself, too. It is time for Congress to exert some constitutional authority and wrap this debacle up before regular Americans endure even more financial suffering.
Trump has clearly lost the plot of what has become a staggeringly expensive conflict without any clear strategic goal. In fact, the only measurable result of Trump’s Iran strikes has been a spike in the cost of gasoline by more than 50 percent since March. The cost of jet fuel rose so much so quickly that Spirit Airlines had no choice but to declare bankruptcy and liquidate 17,000 previously well-paying American jobs.
Indeed, the Iran War may well be remembered for little else besides the rolling job losses and financial hardship it inflicted on working-class Americans who were already grappling with rising consumer prices.
Then there’s the day-to-day expense of running a war without end. The conflict has drained more than $72 billion in taxpayer funds at a time when Republican leaders say there simply isn’t any cash available to extend healthcare subsidies for the 22 million Americans facing skyrocketing premiums. And that’s before Trump heads to Capitol Hill with hat in hand to ask for $80 billion to $100 billion more in war funding.
Tens of thousands of people have lost their jobs because of Trump’s calamitous war. Millions more are facing financial hardship and rising debt as they struggle to survive in an economy turned upside-down by Trump’s endless game of chicken in the Strait of Hormuz. If Congress has a scrap of decency left, it will use its constitutional authority to end this nightmare before even more Americans sink beneath the economic waves.
Sleeping at the Helm
Gaslighting of the Day
The president is not in a rush to bring down gas prices. He has all the cards.
Noted.
With that note out of the way, let’s get to the real news of the day.
Aramco Sees Oil Market Losing 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed
The Wall Street Journal reports Aramco Sees Oil Market Losing 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed
The global oil market could lose around 100 million barrels of supply for every week the Strait of Hormuz remains closed if disruptions continue at the current rate, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said.
Speaking on an earnings call on Monday, Nasser said the market has already lost about 1 billion barrels of oil supply during the crisis, though some losses have been offset by alternative export routes bypassing Hormuz and releases from strategic petroleum reserves.
“The energy supply shock that began in the first quarter is the largest the world has ever experienced,” he said after Aramco reported a 25% rise in quarterly net profit. The comments came as the Iran conflict continues to severely disrupt flows through the strait, where around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas used to pass before the war.
If the reopening of the key shipping route is delayed by several more weeks, oil markets might not fully normalize until 2027, according to Saudi Arabia’s national oil company.
Strategic Drain
But hey, exports are up. We call this winning.
Trump Says Iran’s Response Is “Totally Unacceptable” OK, So What?
Yesterday, I commented Trump Says Iran’s Response Is “Totally Unacceptable” OK, So What?
“I Don’t Like It,” Says Trump.
I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called “Representatives.” I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
That was a damn feeble response by Trump.
OK, Mr. President, what are you going to do about it besides whine on Truth Social.
Today, Trump moaned to the press and fell asleep in the oval office. I am not sure if the nap was before or after his life support message.
Trump’s Three Losing Options
- War with unknown consequences
- A humiliating deal that lets oil pass through while negotiations continue
- Status quo and rising inflation, gasoline prices, fertilizer prices, diesel, etc.
So which is it?
Meanwhile, please note the warning of Saudi Aramco.
Oil Market Will Lose 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed
That’s the real news of the day.
In 1972, we left New Jersey paying $ .15 for unleaded gas in brand new 1971 Super Beetle, 30 mpg, a $2000 out the door car. The 73-74 oil crisis engineered by our buddy Shahansha(king of kings), all of a sudden gas was .39 and quickly .75 per gal. We were 23 yrs old that year, and had the world by the tail, it felt like. I built my first spec home in 81-82, with 14% mortgages, what a dreamer! I made what I paid my guys, at least I didn’t go belly up. Do any young people have this kind of opportunity today? People say Boomers have all the $, but I see old folks barely hanging on. Of course we also have plenty of these Super Duty F250’s for $125K rolling around looking shiny clean. Lindsey Graham said in 2014, Donnie will destroy the Republican Party. How did he Know?
I’m 32 and have had my own commercial construction company for 3 years already. There’s so many boomers falling out of the industry there’s massive opportunity in my opinion. A changing of the guard. I bought my business from a boomer for half of original asking price, no one else was going for it. The future is bright for those with their eyes open.
Bankruptcy for the gulf states? I have no idea where this is going but the status quo suggests bankruptcy for the states.
Hillarious Iranium Embassy post trolling Trump!
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/klrW1419I10?feature=share
Taco should have listened to Buffett. When you find yourself in a hole, the first thing you do is quit digging. Of course, this assumes one has at least some brain function.
This definitely isn’t looking good for talks at the summit in China, as Trump has slapped sanctions on businesses there today. Also it’s said that Pakistan allowed Iran to hide military equipment withing Pakistan and the US govt just found out.
It’s a bad sign when just days before going into negotiations with another country, especially when visiting said country, you expand the sanctions you have already placed on said country.
One wonders, at this rate Trump will arrive in China and they escort him to a jail cell. Now could you imagine if that happened (not saying it will happen just saying what if)?
I’d like to add that if this really wasn’t about China why would the first thing he do about Iran rejecting the American offer was to slap more sanctions on China, or rather Chinese businesses?
I’m afraid this seems to suggest that Trump isn’t gonna bend to both China, nor world pressure.
As such this latest move has me convinced Trump has seriously lost his mind, and moral compass.
Given the new drone warfare, it is worth contemplating that China processes 91% of the global supply of rare earths and makes 94% of the sintered magnets.
China has already banned the sale of “Strategic Metals” to all U.S. defense contractors and their suppliers. This is a broad spectrum of metals including silver and yttrium.
Yttrium is used to coat jet engines so they do not burn themselves to a crisp and they have to be periodically re-coated in regular maintenance or they melt.
Contemplate the fleet of F35’s and B 1’s without engines that can be used because they will melt.
Trump was always weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Anyone who has asked themselves “Why doesn’t China complain about what Trump is doing in the Gulf?” Knows that China will not interrupt their enemy in the middle of the US committing a string of awful mistakes.
Yes, he’s totally in over his head. Congress needs to do something or the damage will be so severe that they will suffer too (politically)
Welcome to the new normal in the USA – total anarchy in policy
Pakistan has Nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Is Trump going to attack them?
Consider that Pakistan gets its fuel and fertilizers from Hormuz? Rice and other food staples from Indias surplus? Imagine the carnage if Pakistan is threatened with mass starvation and social unrest to the point it lashes out?
Yikes! The consequences are frightening!
This is standard procedure for Trump. Just before any negotiation, he threatens the other party in the belief that this will soften them up for a better deal. It’s all he knows how to do. He does it every time.
Same goes for Iran. Before Trump submits a proposal he threatens them with more bombing. Then as he waits for a response, he doubles down that they better present a good proposal in return or else he will bomb them even worse than before.
Of course, both Iran and China are aware that this is all Trump knows. And they refuse to be bullied.
Iran controls the strait. They have the leverage. They will demand concessions from Trump.
China controls rare earths. They have the leverage. They will demand concessions.
Trump has nothing but bravado. But he’s too stupid to understand this. He truly believes he is the best negotiator in the world.
Don jr is accompanying Trump to China to do some business “deals”.
Trump could always make it worse and allow China to invest $1TT on US soil to build chip factories. Why not give away the golden goose while he’s at it? Claims to love real gold but uses fake gold and gives the real stuff away for a song.
Diesel just went up another .50 today at our local gas stations.
At $6.50 per gallon for highway grade and $5.85 for farm premium it is now up 80% from pre-Trump 2
What a nightmare for farmers and truckers!
Thank goodness I bought my fertilizer and fuel forward this year!
I’m covered until October on fuel and next spring on fertilizer.
Looking beyond that is a nightmare scenario at this point. If Vance replaces Trump I do not think things will get any better.
someone is losing their shirt on making these opposing bets, especially if they made a lot of these bets
Indeed they are!
“If Vance replaces Trump I do not think things will get any better.”
The question is what dirt Israel has on Vance.
Anyway, rumor has it that Trump is asking his lawyers whether he can “fire” Vance.
The real nightmare will come when grocery stores, retail stores and pharmacies are empty because diesel is sooo expensive that it makes no sense to transport a trailer full of viagra or rubber flippers to your local store.
How is your beef going to get from the ranch to the slaughter house to the distribution center to your local butcher? Think of the cost each time something makes a hop.
No beef on my farms. Greens, root crops and fruit along with honey, fertilization services a few exotics and rare native plant seeds. All high margin specialties.
Almost all products sold at local farm markets for the influx of HNW summer residents.
My butcher is eight miles from me and a friend of mine named Jay
All part of his plan to gift mom and pop farms to Big Ag.
Trump knows what he’s doing. Making a Trillion dollar fortune manipulating Wall Street for himself and his Ass kissing friends.
And offering his ass to Netanyahu.
This situation with Hormuz Straight leads me to believe an alternative would be pipelines to Oman Indian Ocean coast and possibly southern Israel. The pipelines are constructed quickly, the loading facilities not so much but some of the facility load could be relieved by extending the pipeline offshore and using an existing floating facility. Just a thought
Um, no, pipelines are not constructed that “quickly” and there is nothing stopping Iran for hitting construction crews and pumping stations.
Quickly meaning more than a year, so the term was misleading and the work would not be without risk, but in the end providing alternatives to shipping through the Hormuz Straight, now itself very risky, provides more competition to the sea route. Failure to reduce the impact of the choke point going forward is failure to learn from this situation.
In wartime pipelines can be bombed and/or sabotaged.
The Saudi’s built an oil pipeline 6 feet deep for transiting oil to a port in the Red Sea as did the UAE. I would think bombing those ports where the pipeline ends would make it a white elephant.
GCCs have no pipelines or ground transportation methods that are connected to distributors or end user recipients without first traversing a port in the Red Sea or the Persian Gulf.
Iran can ship its oil via a Russian flagged tankers through the Caspian then through Russian rivers to the Baltics and out eventually into the Atlantic to Europe or by rail or ground transport through Russia with final destination China or Iran can have Pakistan carriers pickup and deliver oil to the final consignee in India or Japan or other East Asian countries.
We were building crude by rail terminals in the bakken in 6-9 months in 2009-2012. The amount of rail cars it would take to move that in the Middle East must be astronomical. I ran some numbers on what it would take for China to do that from Iran. It would take their entire rail industry a year of car production to produce enough tank cars. Their big problem is there are different track sizes 3 times from Iran to China. At each track size change there would have to be additional transfer facilities and cars (Uzbekistan has a different rail gauge than Iran and China).
Middle East countries supporting America are also facing more than just Billions in lost Oil revenue. The Iran War has chased away Tourists to the Middle East to the tune of over $600 Million of spending per Day— as the War goes on. https://economymiddleeast.com/news/wttc-middle-east-tourism-600-million-daily-loss-conflict/
Two Formula 1 races already cancelled and three more will likely be cancelled.
Huge revenue losses for F1, the teams, sponsors and cities that hosted the races.
Any of you guys actually spend the time to listen to one of his full pressers recently…Golden Cheese King is on loop….same thing he did on the campaign trail….repeat the same exact things verbatim, over and over….turns out it wan’t a skill, seems more like some form of brain damage. Biden couldn’t speak and this guy won’t shut up.
the gold phone
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/590-000-buyers-paid-59-223500998.html
It appears that the “concept of a plan” is good enough after all…for the swindlers.
It’s called The Art of the Steal!
590,000 gullible certified bull goose morons with money to burn.
O to get my paws on that customer list….
How much you wanna bet certain commenters here are on that list of shame?
The following is exactly why peace is not possible with Trump
FOX NEWS’ JOHN ROBERTS: When I talked to the president this morning, he kinda surprised me bc he said, ‘John, I’m very serious about beginning a process to make Venezuela the 51st state.’
WHITE HOUSE SPOKESPERSON ANNA KELLY: This is a president who is famous for never accepting the status quo
Wait a minute how did Venezuela jump the cue? I thought Canada was 51, Panama was 52, and Greenland was 53, Cuba was 54, leaving number 55 for Venezuela.
Countries are lining up to join this “great democracy” led by someone even greater than Jesus. I mean one person has paid for the gold visa already.
Seriously though, California should opt out of the Union, so should Oregon and Washington state. They should join Canada. They could be the 11th, 12th, and 13th provinces. Get out before the civil war starts.
He couldn’t point any of those places out on a map. They’re just words for his world salad.
Trump is now alone. Allies are nowhere to be found.
No cheer leaders around as used to be.
Even loudest cheer leader, BiBi is silent and war mongers,Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham are distant themselves from Trump.
Seems Trump is fighting not only Iran but the whole world.
The problems are unsurmountable. Negotiating the almost impossible task.
After more than 15.000 military and civilian targets were hit with precision guided bombs nothing left but only civilian targets.
The longer the status quo / Strait blockage / ceasefire, the quagmire trap is deeper and wider.
Winning words are fading.
Good luck.
He’s not alone, he’s got us to feed on… to inflate away our wealth, to send our children to fight other people’s children.
We just sit here and watch it happen.
Yes. The world has lost close to 1 billion barrels of oil shipments so far. But we have been pretty adept at preventing a catastrophe so far.
Thank goodness there was a lot of sanctioned oil in tankers all over the world before the US attacked Iran. The US took the sanctions off an estimated 200 million barrels of Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil that was stored in tankers. This cushioned the blow. But that oil is now used up.
And then there was the release of 400 million barrels from SPRs all over the world. This also made up for some of the loss. This is almost all used up, though there could be another release in the future if necessary.
China has also helped out by importing around 5 million barrels per day LESS of oil. They have been tapping their own SPR to make up some of the difference. And they have been reducing the export of refined products. Estimates are that China may have used up 100 mb of its SPR so far.
The problem now is that we have used up a lot of the buffer that was available.Around 700 mb.
The shortages are now hitting home. Jet fuel and diesel shortages are appearing all over the world. Prices are increasing for these refined products. The global economy is about to suffer a heart attack if this continues.
When people ask how Trump’s attack on Iran caused a global recession. The answer is “slowly at first, and then very quickly”.
Trumpstien is making noises about waiving the federal gasoline tax. That will certainly make a billion barrels of oil materialize out of thin air, and absolutely won’t just drive up the price.
Moron math is powerful!
A political decision to temporarily lower gas and diesel prices, so voters aren’t as pissed off.
However, lowering gas prices helps maintain demand levels.
We are rapidly drawing down our gasoline and diesel storage levels. Once they drop lpw enough, prices will have to rise dramatically in order to ration what is still available.
So we’ll hit the wall at full demand.
Reduce taxes but increase oil company profits.
Is it possible for America to run out of diesel? If so, when would that occur at current rates?
No. I don’t think we can “run out” of diesel or gasoline. But we can run low. And there can be shortages in some markets in the US. Shortages are usually caused by regional refinery problems.
The US is blessed with enough refinery capacity that we refine 16-17 mb of oil each day. This produces roughly 9.5 mb of gasoline and 5 mb of diesel.(And 2-3 mb of everything else)
Yet we only consume around 9 mb of gasoline and 4 mb of diesel. So we actually export both gasoline and diesel. And of course some goes into storage as needed.
The problem now is that we are exporting a LOT more gas, diesel, and unrefined oil than we normally do, because we can sell it for much higher prices elsewhere. This is drawing down domestic inventories and forcing prices higher here in the US.
This is how commodity prices work. If demand exceeds supply, prices rise.
People often complain about this. They say we should not sell to others so we can keep prices low domestically.
But if you are a business, that makes no sense. No business will sell at the lowest price possible. If a farmer can sell his corn for $10 to Europe or $3 locally, which do you think he will choose? And if a refiner can sell diesel for $4 locally or $8 to Korea, which will the refiner choose?
So we will not run out of gas or diesel, but we will have to pay more for it.
Thank you Papa, that is good news! I was worried we relied on importing heavy oil from the middle east to refine diesel and was about to go into survival mode. I treasure (quite literally) your insights!
We normally import 6-7 mbpd of heavy oil, mostly from Canada. And they are not going to stop selling it to us. So no worries there. We normally export 3-4 mbpd of light oil. But we are now exporting 6-7 mbpd of light oil, because prices elsewhere are so much higher. It’s the first time in decades that we are exporting as much oil as we import. Which is why our commercial oil storage levels keep dropping each week. And our SPR levels.
Only one solution: Export ban & rationing.
M-ore A$$holes to G-overn & A-dminister
Export ban and rationing are two very different things.
No need for rationing. We produce more gas and diesel than we consume.
An export ban is possible. That would hurt our refineries and oil companies and it would quickly force prices down. We would flood the domestic market with oil, gas and diesel.
Domestic drilling would collapse. Oil production would begin a decline. Texas would be badly hurt.
The world economy would be further starved for oil, gas and diesel. Trump told the world to come buy our oil, gas and diesel. He said, “We have lots.” And the ships started sailing here to load up. That would be yet another broken promise.
Well, let’s not forget oil futures manipulation, which Bessent said plainly he would do before backtracking, and then jawboning speculators to be bearish on oil. All great ideas if the closure was not going to extend to 2months+, because now you’re down to your last barrels of reserves and good luck jawboning actual oil users
That has already successfully kept prices lower than they should be. And demand higher than it should be. Eventually though, as you say, prices will shoot up quickly when shortages become more widespread.
Hey, Mish. I was too young to know about the 1970s oil shock, but I understand the Misery Index rose out of that difficult economic time. It is still used today, but has taken a backseat to other financial data/indicators. With the equation being the unemployment rate plus the inflation rate, it may come back into fashion since inflation is soaring and unemployment sure to follow if the US/Israel renews the attack against Iran. BUT I would offer a fresh take and calling it the Trump Misery Index (TMI) since Iran was/is a war choice and should be 100% laid at his feet. It’s not my idea – I heard it on a podcast with Professor Pape.
Was a teenager in the 70s and I remember the reports on the news of elderly people on fixed income only being able to afford pet food for their dietary needs. The 20% plus inflation and 20% plus interest rates were not a whole lot of fun.
Pet food is so much fancier these days… a far cry from the Alpo cans of the 70s. As seniors, we will dine on fancyfeast!
Beans, tortillas, oatmeal…
You’re not one o’ them soyboy veeegans are ya?
I recall being in the backseat of my friends parents car who got in a huge fight over not being able to buy a can of wd40 and should buy hot dogs instead. Things sucked then also.
They were, if you were a saver.
Have seen nothing like it since.
Long bonds are back to alarm levels, oil rising, 10 year rising, housing getting crushed, inflation soaring, AI killing jobs, datacenters guzzling all the water, and war! war! war!
And then there’s the silent killer ticking time bomb: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Bond/TMBMKJP-10Y?countrycode=BX
Trump’s golden age is your misery age.
Retail stocks crushed today….guess the misery has started in earnest.
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
explain the silent ticking time bomb ty
Japan finances US debt in the infamous “carry trade”, people borrow yen cheaply (low rates) and invest in US treasuries (higher rates). It all works great until the Yen appreciates in value when the Japanese central bank raises rates. Yen no longer cheap so investors sell US Treasuries (causing yields to spike) to pay off their Yen loans and avoid the currency risk.
If you look at the chart, the central bank rates have been creeping up. Above 3% is painful, 4% = heart attack, 5% = stroke.
I own FXY in anticipation of a spike in Yen currency.
Trump has not been impatient. He gave the Iranians every opportunity. The Iranian leadership has failed its people.
Every opportunity to do what – give up any and all ability to defend themselves? Fuck that.
That’s rich. He’s not giving opportunities, he’s drawing this out because he has no strategy, no clear objective and no end game. Iran knows this because they realize he’s all bluster and no substance.
The Iranian government is a horrible, despotic, terrible regime. And there is no doubt their conventional armed forces have indeed taken a beating and are no match for Israel and their US puppet. Having said that, they’re hanging in there, and as long as they can do two things (survive and keep the strait closed), they avoid losing. They can and will continue down this path simply because it is the best path they have.
I don’t know what opportunities you’re referring to. Trump wanted a cease fire because continuing the bombing will not change the facts on the ground, and even he finally realized it. Can Trump outlast them and force them to open the strait? Don’t hold your breath on that.
“The Iranian government is a horrible, despotic, terrible regime.”
What we “know” about the Iranians comes from the same people who told us Saddam had WMD, who made up atrocities in Kuwait to justify US invasion, who said Assad gassed his own people, who will not mention 80,000 murdered in Gaza and Lebanon, who lied about everything having to do with Covid and the jab…
And before that, they told us there was a mini-holocaust going on in Kosovo to justify bombing Serbia, also a lie.
It’s way more than 80,000 in Gaza. You can’t flatten an area with 2 million people and only kill 4% of them.
The 80,000 figure is intentionally steelmanned, and lists only people whose names are known and who are confirmed dead as a result of Israeli actions.
So if Israeli bombs flatten an apartment block full of women and children, the bodies trapped under the rubble are not part of that 80,000 figure unless they can be dug out, identified, and confirmed dead.
And told us Libya was a clear and present danger……mostly because they were issuing non fiat money, and giving massive social support to their population.
They haven’t been bombed again because they can credibly wreck enough oil infrastructure to cause a decade long global depression.
They don’t have to take on the US. They have the global economy as a hostage.
again: damn good book Iran: A Modern History
https://macmillan.yale.edu/middleeast/iran/publications/iran-modern-history
One could also argue that the US government is a horrible, despotic, terrible regime lol
you are a fucking clown.
we bombed these people during negotiations.
Twice.
Iran isn’t a 13 year old girl. They can fight back.
Trumptard human garbage^
I’m sorry I misgendered you.
Donald Trump is a traitor who serves a foreign Government over his own country. That means, by defninition, you are a traitor too, if you support Trump, since his actions are destroying America, not making It Great Again.. As well as being dumber than a box of rocks.
we don’t need oil we got AI
Ai is mostly run on natural gas… which bumped pretty big today.
How long can these companies keep paying for it with no revenue to speak of?
They can borrow the money using their capitalization as collateral.
Cash flow is obviously impossible to use for attracting funding, as it is negative.