The PPI numbers exceeded the highest estimate of every economist surveyed.
Image source 2026 Econoday Economic Calendar.
In addition to well above consensus estimates, there were upward revisions to March month-over-month and year-over-year numbers.
Biggest Leap in PPI since March 2022
Please consider the BLS Producer Price Report for April 2026.
- The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in March and 0.6 percent in February.
- The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.
- Nearly 60 percent of the April rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 1.2-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods moved up 2.0 percent.
- The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.6 percent in April, the largest advance since rising 0.6 percent in October 2025.
- For the 12 months ended in April, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 4.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 4.5 percent in February 2023.
PPI Final Demand Month-Over-Month
PPI Final Demand Month-Over-Month Details
- Final Demand: 1.4 percent
- Final Demand Goods: 2.0 percent
- Final Demand Services: 1.2 percent
- Final Demand Food: 0.2 percent
- Final Demand Less Food and Energy: 1.0 percent
Final Demand Synopsis
- Final Demand Services: The index for final demand services rose 1.2 percent in April, the largest increase since moving up 1.3 percent in March 2022. Two-thirds of the broad-based advance in April can be traced to a 2.7-percent jump in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers). The indexes for final demand transportation and warehousing services and for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing also rose, 5.0 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.
- Services Detail: A major factor in the April advance in prices for final demand services was a 3.5- percent increase in margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling. The indexes for truck transportation of freight; fuels and lubricants retailing; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; chemicals and allied products wholesaling; and legal services also moved higher. Conversely, prices for portfolio management fell 2.4 percent. Margins for food retailing and for metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling also decreased. (See table 2.)
- Final Demand Goods: The index for final demand goods advanced 2.0 percent in April after rising 1.9 percent in March. More than three-quarters of the broad-based increase in April can be traced to a 7.8-percent jump in prices for final demand energy. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also moved up, 0.7 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.
- Goods Detail: Over 40 percent of the April advance in prices for final demand goods can be attributed to a 15.6-percent increase in the index for gasoline. Prices for jet fuel, diesel fuel, fresh and dry vegetables, industrial chemicals, and residual fuels also rose. In contrast, the index for chicken eggs dropped 49.7 percent. Prices for nonferrous scrap and for residential natural gas also fell.
PPI Final Demand Year-Over-Year
PPI Final Demand Notes
- Final Demand: 6.0 percent, highest since 6.4 percent in December 2022
- Final Demand Goods: 7.4 percent, highest since 7.7 percent in January 2023
- Final Demand Services: 5.5 percent, highest since 6.0 percent in November 2022
PPI Final Demand Services
Services Key Points
- Services represent a dominant portion of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand, accounting for approximately 68% to over 70% of total PPI coverage as of early 2026.
- Services are often the primary driver of PPI inflation, significantly outweighing goods.
- The trend in services is now ominous. Year-over-year services PPI is up 5.5 percent, the most since 6.0 percent in November 2022.
Intermediate Demand
- Processed Goods for Intermediate Demand: The index for processed goods for intermediate demand increased 2.7 percent in April, the sixth straight advance. More than half of the broad-based April rise can be traced to prices for processed energy goods, which moved up 7.8 percent. The indexes for processed materials less foods and energy and for processed foods and feeds also advanced, 1.5 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. For the 12 months ended in April, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand moved up 9.4 percent, the largest 12-month rise since jumping 10.1 percent in October 2022.
- Processed Goods Detail: Nearly a quarter of the April advance in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand is attributable to prices for diesel fuel, which jumped 12.6 percent. The indexes for jet fuel, gasoline, industrial chemicals, electronic components and accessories, and plastic resins and materials also increased. Conversely, prices for natural gas to electric utilities declined 3.5 percent. The indexes for beef and veal and for industrial gases also fell.
- Unprocessed Goods for Intermediate Demand: Prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand rose 4.1 percent in April, the sixth consecutive increase. More than 80 percent of the April advance can be traced to the index for unprocessed energy materials, which moved up 9.2 percent. Prices for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs rose 2.7 percent. In contrast, the index for unprocessed nonfood materials less energy declined 1.0 percent. For the 12 months ended in April, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand advanced 20.9 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 29.2 percent in September 2022.
- Unprocessed Goods Detail: Nearly three-quarters of the April advance in the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand can be attributed to prices for crude petroleum, which moved up 11.3 percent. The indexes for raw milk, slaughter steers and heifers, natural gas, iron and steel scrap, and fresh vegetables (except potatoes) also rose. Conversely, prices for nonferrous scrap decreased 4.4 percent. The indexes for corn and for hay, hayseeds, and oilseeds also declined.
The Intermediate Demand (ID) Producer Price Index (PPI) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to businesses as inputs for production, excluding capital investment.
Uses of the Data
- Inflation Indicator: Highlights input price pressures that may lead to future changes in final consumer prices.
- Contract Escalation: Businesses use these indices to adjust long-term supply contracts.
- Economic Analysis: Helps economists and businesses measure changing input costs and profit margins.
Except for one-time increases or random fluctuations, intermediate price pressures tend to eventually find their way into final demand cost increases.
What’s happening now is neither temporary nor random. Price pressures will persist as long as the strait is closed.
Fed Behind the Curve?
Q: Is the Fed behind the curve?
A: Yes, obviously.
Q: Why?
A: The Fed still has an easing bias with three dissents.
At a minimum, the Fed’s bias should be towards hiking, not cutting rates. Inflation is clearly not under control.
This of course presumes the Fed can do anything realistic about this. But to be internally consistent, discussion of cutting rates seems ridiculous.
Meanwhile,Trump keeps making matters worse not only with Mideast policy but with tariff policy.
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May 12, 2026: Real Hourly Earnings Decline Again, No Growth Since Trump Took Office
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May 13, 2026: Two Reasons the CPI Report Will Give the Fed Severe Headaches
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Today’s increase of CPI and PPI numbers is just the beginning of larger increases in the cost of living. Real INFLATION (not the Govt B.S.) is going to be Horrendous in the coming months even if a peace is reached soon in the Middle East. This will be devasting to TRUMP in November.
oh my: Hegseth Reveals There Is No Plan To Open Strait Of Hormuz
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/post/3mlo7ofq3az2d?ref_src=embed&ref_url=https%253A%252F%252Fcrooksandliars.com%252F2026%252F05%252Fhegseth-reveals-there-no-plan-open-strait
Lack of cans for diet Coke in India due to aluminum shortages. Prices for plastics skyrocketting. Thanks Don!
No matter how high inflation gets, the owner class will come out ahead. The worker bees? Not so much.
The U.S. now has a bifurcated economy and this will be a permanent feature going forward as more and more people get pushed out of the middle class.
Cisco just announced they are laying off 4000 (well paid) workers and Wall Street loves that ‘good news’. Cisco up 19% today.
This is just starting in the US, and will get nastier fast, as the general population starts to freak
It’ll be interesting to see what BS the political consultants come up with for the congressional morons to spout, especially from the red team
New Zealand has 18.74 days of diesel left with another 2.24 days of committed deliveries and 20.98 days of gasoline with another 10.87 days of committed deliveries.
Jet fuel is better supplied with 24.84 days and another 23.07 days of committed deliveries.
Diesel is considered by the NZ government to be at Critical Levels…
It’ll be fine. I hear the war is nearly over.
exactly, I hear the hardest part of an 8 week war is the first three years…
Did you hear that from a guy named Doug? or Jojo? Haven’t seen the clowns lately, maybe too busy wiping egg off faces?
Yeah, but I heard it from some fat dude first.
or that Aix and several others……………….
and the army is broke! https://abcnews.com/Politics/army-cuts-training-service-short-billions-dollars/story?id=132898323
Dude…$40 trillion in debt. Technically, every branch of government is broke and it has been that way for a long time. You are literally living on borrowed money and borrowed time.
And it’s going to get a whole lot worse in a few years with a declining population and growing burden of socialists, expense and repair for every single thing built by the government over the last 50 years (roads, bridges, airports, water/sewer, etc).
I live in fire engine red North Dakota. We don’t need no stinking federal government!
The irony is, if you took away the federal government, the residents outside of the biggest cities either would have to live like something out of “Little House on the Prairie” or just give up and and the land back to the Natives.
A friend of mine has a son who did a year on a base in Alaska. He kept saying his son was going to get orders to warm weather. He got orders to Why Not Minot.
Appears that taco’s lackey is going to face some opposition to lowering interest rates as result of rising inflation and increased prospects for stagflation.
If we think we have it bad in the U.S.
My beekeeping friend in Australia can not get fuel to drive his hives to the places where they are supposed to fertilize crops.
https://checkpetrol.com.au/outages/vic
Before Trumps war, his tow vehicle cost around $175 Australian $’s to fill. Two weeks into thee war he reported $250. A month ago $450. Now his nearby station is out of fuel. His business is closed and crops are not getting pollinated (thank goodness it is fall there).
Diesel is the worst and is priced in rural areas from $3.50 to $4.50 per liter.
Our problems are like getting a mosquito bite compared to what is going on outside the U.S.
Mad Max was a bit ahed of its time!
Trump is doing more to promote renewable energy and EVs around the world than anyone else.
At the same time he is fighting their development at home. If Trump had his way we would all be driving 50’s cars like in Cuba and experiencing intermittent power outages.
America will rise again as soon as Agent Orange is gone! 🙂
And the environmentalists STILL won’t thank him.
Thats a double wammy with the varroa problem the have
True, they were the last continent to get Varroa Mites. However, we now have many chemical and biological weapons to fight Varroa, and bees are becoming more vigilant at grooming the mites off of each other and biting their legs off.
Yeah ive been treatment free for 9 years or so. Tell him to check out scientific beekeeping. Randy oliver has a cheap way for commercial guys to move to treatment free.
If he feeds sugar thats might be another problem.
He does not feed sugar. Not necessary in his northern Victoria climate.
Love Olivers stuff but I’m still using Oxalic acid drips and Api Guard. My climate is really difficult and I can not afford even low mite counts because of winter length & moisture.
ditto Planet of the Apes
Obligatory musical tribute from the best!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4_SJfCGQwM
Quoted petrol at $13.30-$15.10 price range in Murka Gallons – IF you can find any to buy at that price.
Oops, $9.64-11.09 USD I forgot to exchange the Aussies.
True, at this time it is only 4% of their gas stations that are without fuel.
Another month with Agent Orange demolishing infrastructure? Who knows what the global fuel situation will look like?
Average price nationally quoted at $1.88 AUD per liter. That works to $5.452 USD nationally. I suspect that data is stale, given that’s only 20% above our US prices. source here https://petrolmate.com.au/australia
Stale indeed… See above link for real time.
As much as I hate the Fed, I think I have to join others in pointing out that at this point they’re a doctor trying to treat lung cancer in a man smoking three packs a day. What can anyone do when the entire government is actively working to make the issue worse at every conceivable turn?
Yup thats why i say blame congress. They are the guy behind the counter at the 7-11 profiting from the mans addiction
They could’ve easily done their jobs and raised rates to actual restriction. That entire rate cycle the last 5 years was trash. We never reached 2%. We never got the balance sheet back down. They gave up. They didn’t do their job. Powell lied to your face when he said fiscal policy isn’t the Fed’s business. The Fed is the US government’s fiscal agent. It’s certainly the Fed’s business to keep runaway borrowing in check by raising interest rates.
Even Powell’s pearl clutching over Fed independence was an act. If he was independent he would’ve handled inflation. Instead he just bitched about “dual mandate, dual mandate, we have a dual mandate” yea… the dual mandate is why the inflation target is 2% not 0%. Do your job and get it to 2%. But he didn’t. He pretended to care the whole time he was chair, but all he cared about was the market. Not the people, and not inflation.
He’s trash and a very good actor, nothing more. We’ll see if Warsh sold his soul or not.
meanwhile: GM Firing Hundreds While Bringing In Foreign Workers
https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/cars/news-blog/gm-firing-hundreds-while-bringing-in-foreign-workers-45135283
“Many pertain to vehicle software development, coding, telematics, cybersecurity, and other careers related to information technology”
and yet I still witness people driving a 1977 Cutlass
Michigan voted for this in 2024.
Maybe Kid Rock can write a song about this.
I dont believe there is much the Fed can do with a massive supply shock being the reason for inflation.
what is everyone else’s opinion?
Supply side inflation isn’t something the fed can fix unless it can fix supply constraints or create the supply out of thin air.
The former would take too much time or money, say in the case of current energy shocks (fixing damaged equipment, or even creating different shipping routes); and the latter can’t be done in the reality of a physical world.
So you are correct: the fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
and to add, when/if the Fed increases rates, will that cause foreign held us dollars to be re shored because of the higher rates?
is this not what happened when Volcker did his rate increase? was that what led to the federal fund rate being increased?
The Fed could do QT. Sure, that could cause some hiccups but I think flat or lower prices would be net beneficial for the economy and people.
Thats an insightful analysis of the PPI. Looks like the stars are now aligned for a perfect inflation storm created single-handedly by the Trump administration across energy, food, health care, and low-skilled services. If Trump’s objective was to fire up inflation through his foreign and domestic policies, he has succeeded admirably.
The Republicans and Democrats are equally responsible. They both passed the Cares act, then the Dems passed the American rescue plan act, then the Repubs passes the obbb bill. All full of massive debt and spending that has pushed prices to where they are today.
I can’t wait for Stephan Miran next advocacy and defense for more rate cuts. I do admire him in this respect, no matter what the data set, every one of his analyses always align with Trump’s warped view of the economy. That’s loyalty to the point of genuflection, but also a reason to jettison anything he has to say as he has no credibility.
I don’t know how the Republicans recover from this. There are enough MAGA voters who will always vote for war, deficits and inflation that responsible Republicans can’t take back the party. We need a 3rd party made up of the remnants of the Republicans and centrist Democrats. A party that’s not owned by the corporations and Israeli lobby. I don’t know if that is possible though.
The US has become much more of a populist country over the last 20 years, with the Republicans becoming entirely a right wing populist party, and the Democrats becoming more and more a left wing populist party (think AOC, Mandavi, and Bernie Sanders). The difference between a right wing populist party and a left wing populist party is that a right wing populist party has cultural elites as the target (think universities, press) while a left wing populist party has economic elites as the target (think billionaires and top 1%). So if the Republicans could somehow make this fall election into a fight over cultural issues, they could still recover and have a chance to get some swing voters to add to the MAGA base. They have been very good at this in the past, but personally I think they have dug themselves such a deep hole that it won’t work this time. So I expect a Democrat wave, but in the end I am not that optimistic on what the outcome of that will be either. We definitely need a viable third party now.
The gop is now the pot party of trump. With luck all this gerrymandering will force the dems to the middle for the moderate rep and independents.
Maybe become the party of reason. But the rep will try to make it about gays or something far rt and the dems will get suckered back to the far rt.
They just find another ghoul that appeals to the lowest common denominator. The thing that makes stupid people stupid is that they don’t learn anything useful from experience.
Indeed which is why I came up with….
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
We’re halfway through May with high oil costs so I assume next round of numbers will be even worse and if Iran not resolved, the following month will be even worse.
With no rate cuts and possible hikes, forget the housing market. 10 year is already at 4.5.
Excellent post.
No awards?
Due to surging PPI prices and supply chain issues, we’re running short. Hopefully some will come in this week!
Are you saying Mish will have to pay for his awards? Lol /s
Trump bought all the gold stars and gave them to himself, his adolescent girl toys and his sycophants.