By political affiliation, sentiment declines the most for independents.
Please consider the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary October report, released today.
Preliminary Results for October 2026
| Oct | Sep | Oct | M-M | Y-Y | |
| 2026 | 2026 | 2025 | Change | Change | |
| Index of Consumer Sentiment | 46.3 | 48.1 | 53.6 | -3.7% | -13.6% |
| Current Economic Conditions | 44.7 | 50.9 | 58.6 | -12.2% | -23.7% |
| Index of Consumer Expectations | 47.3 | 46.3 | 50.3 | +2.2% | -6.0% |
Sentiment Key Points
- Consumer sentiment 46.3 down from 48.1
- Current conditions 44.7 a new record low down from 50.9
- Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year.
Inflation Outlook
- Year ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7 percent, up 0.1 percentage points
- Long-run inflation expectations also stepped up from 3.4% in September to 3.5%, notably higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%.
- Inflation expectations over both time horizons increased for the second straight month to their highest readings since May.
Current Conditions vs Expectations
Sentiment Never Recovered After Covid
- 6-Year High Pre-Covid: 121.2
- 6-Year Low Pre-Covid: 100.8
- 6-Year High Post-Covid: 97.2
- 6-Year Low Post-Covid: 44.7
Notably, the 6-Year pre-Covid low is higher than the 6-Year post-Covid high.
The same is true with the three-month moving average of the overall index.
Inflation Expectations
One-Year and 5-Year Inflation Expectations
- One-Year: 4.7 percent
- Five-year: 3.5 percent
Partisan Sentiment Changes Since January 2026
- -23 percent for Independents
- -14 percent for Republicans
- -9 percent for Democrats
Republicans and Independents expected more out of Trump and did not get it. This is a reflection on the war in Iran, tariffs, and inflation.
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October 6, 2026: Cook Political “Senate Majority is Squarely in Democrats’ Sights”
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When the Cook Political base case is Democrats +2 in the Senate, you know it looks bad for Republicans.
How bad is the only real question at this point.
there is some interesting psychology behind why people think the economy is fine, it is spiteful
Consumers are negative yet they’re spending money on leisure like no tomorrow. A friend of mine owns three restaurants in Chicagoland, he’s having record revs, record profits. Attendance in beleaguered baseball, up four straight seasons. Cheap concert seats? Fuggedaboutit. And, it’s not just in the States, Latin America has turned a corner not seen since pre-financial crisis.
Obviously the market doesn’t trust this report. How else does a “struggling consumer” equal slightly higher rates on the day with SPX,up 30pts.
Simple – the rich live lives that would put Gilded Age robber barons or Roman emperors to shame.
The peons live like paupers. Time for another tax cut for the billionaires!
Yes, this is the K-shaped economy that Bessent insists we don’t have
“Merry Christmas to all, including the Radical Left Scum that is doing everything possible to destroy our Country, but are failing badly.”
“Trump calls Democrats ‘radical left scum’ in Christmas Eve message
TRT World (December 25, 2025)
Vote in the midterms to keep all of Trump’s ass kissing Republicans in office…
if you want to successfully destroy the country.
the buying power of the consumer dollar “can” reverse direction.
if it does not reverse, the federal reserve and banking system as we know it will end or a currency reissue will occur to save it.
That means bailout! Clearly, this is bullish for stocks!
Only sorta /sarc
We’ll have divided government in three months. Hopefully that will stymie any bailouts or giveaways.
Nah, remember 2007? 2019?
When it comes time to put another war on the national credit card or bail out the billionaires at the casino again, a bipartisan consensus can always be found, just as a revolving case of villains can be found to stymie efforts to fund wasteful fripperies like “healthcare” “education” or “infrastructure”.