Cook Political “Senate Majority is Squarely in Democrats’ Sights”

Cook Political shifts 3 Senate ratings towards Democrats.

Democrat Victory In Sight

Please note A Senate Majority is Squarely in Democrats’ Sights as Kansas Moves to Toss Up; Two Other Races Shift Left

At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many. As such, we are revising our estimate of potential pickups to two to six seats for Democrats — squarely within the range of the four seats they need to net for a majority.

And we are moving three Senate ratings, all in Democrats’ direction: Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up, New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, and North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat.

Kansas: Lean Republican to Toss Up

Democrats’ Cinderella story of the cycle — has jumped up in our ratings at a rapid and surprising pace. We shifted it from Likely Republican into the Lean Republican column just two weeks ago. Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024, so it remains a heavy lift for Democrats. But there is perhaps a perfect confluence of events happening: a stronger-than-expected Democratic challenger who has a moderate message and credentials; an incumbent who was slow to wake up to the real threat both his opponent and the environment pose; and erosion in Trump’s support on the ground rooted in the agriculture economy’s struggles over high fuel and fertilizer prices and distrust over beef imports.

The Midwest overall is a major headache for the GOP this fall, and GOP Sen. Roger Marshall has done his party few favors by failing to lock in for this race earlier in the year. One Republican strategist told us that Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton is Democrats’ best recruit this cycle, and there’s a very real scenario where the party loses this seat for the first time in nearly a century.

A high-quality New York Times/Siena poll this weekend showed the race tied, and private Democratic surveys show it trending toward Hamilton, though Republicans still believe Marshall has a small lead. Notably, Hamilton doesn’t need to hit a 50% threshold to win due to a third party candidate; the Libertarian on the ballot took 5% in the Times poll.

New Hampshire: Toss Up to Lean Democrat

We moved this race into Toss Up several weeks ago with the caveat that it could shift back in Democrats’ favor if the national environment continued to rapidly erode for Republicans — and that’s exactly where we are. While private polling back in September showed a surprisingly close or tied race, surveys now show Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas opening up a lead over former Republican Sen. John Sununu. An AARP/St. Anselm poll released today shows Pappas up 51%-44%.

This race could still end up being closer than it should be given the national environment. Democratic ads hitting Sununu for his own work for a lobbying firm seem to have penetrated, but Pappas — who weathered a barrage of attack ads over the summer for his now-husband’s lobbying work for Amazon — also has work to do in the closing weeks to rally voters who aren’t fans of the Democratic Party either.

Still, in a state where Trump is deeply underwater, we have to call Pappas the favorite here.

North Carolina: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat

Republicans were still holding out hope for their prospects in the Tar Heel State until the end of September. But, on Oct. 2, the Senate Leadership Fund began cutting some of their remaining TV reservations and reallocating that money to Kansas. The inevitable triage demonstrates that the GOP has too many other problems in red states to continue to justify investing in Republican Michael Whatley, who never caught fire as a candidate. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has long been one of the party’s top recruits — with a simple “Make Stuff Cost Less” mantra — and he continues to put the party in pole position to hand Democrats their first net flip on Election Night. 

The final margin here may still end up being in the mid-single digits, but privately Republicans don’t see a viable path to victory, and neither do we. The race shifts from Lean Democrat into the Likely Democrat column, where Georgia also now sits — both surprising moves we wouldn’t have predicted at the outset of the cycle.

Stick a Fork in These Races

Also see the Cook Political report Stick a Fork in These Races

With less than a month until the midterm election, we are starting to see a certain clarity in the Senate races, though the House doesn’t seem to have reached that point. While it’s clear the House majority will flip from Republican to Democrat, how many seats will change hands and the approximate size of the new majority remain open questions.

The big story is the cratering of GOP prospects over the last six weeks. A glimpse of that is obvious in consumer confidence among Republicans plummeting during September, a harbinger of low GOP voter turnout next month. [emphasis added] It’s not a question of whether the GOP will have a bad night, but how bad will it be, despite structural advantages that should have precluded them from having a devastating midterm.

In the Senate, two previously competitive races now seem to be done deals. Arguably, freshman Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia was effectively reelected the day GOP Gov. Brian Kemp decided not to challenge him, but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that Ossoff has secured his seat in a way few would have predicted two years ago. Similarly, in North Carolina, GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’s decision not to seek a third term and former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s decision to seek the open seat effectively sealed that race in Democrats’ favor. In both cases, Trump’s inability to play well with the other kids in his own party effectively cost the GOP the seat; one can also say that Trump’s lack of support for Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, and subsequent endorsement of GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton, may well have punted another seat. While Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has proved to be a skillful and impressive candidate and raised tons of money, the reality is that had Cornyn been renominated, the seat would probably remain safely in Republican hands.

Seven seats currently held by Republicans, including both North Carolina and Texas, are now top-tier targets for Democrats. Joining them are toss-up Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio, and the newest addition, Kansas. Last week’s New York Times/Siena University poll made that official, showing GOP Sen. Roger Marshall and pastor Adam Hamilton tied at 45 percent. Many had felt the race was tightening, but this was the first high-quality, reliable poll to show it. (Let me reiterate that if you’re following key Senate and gubernatorial races, focus on first-class polling, specifically The New York Times/Siena, AARP, CNN, Fox News, Marist University, Marquette University Law School, and Washington Post/George Mason Schar School. Life is too short to look at crummy and/or misleading polling. [emphasis added] Those six entities have released about two dozen high-quality state polls over the last three months, far superior to 95 percent of the political polls bouncing around the internet.)

With that, Cook Political moved much closer to what I have been calling.

Partisan Sentiment

Partisan Sentiment Change Since February 2025

• Democrats: Down 13 percent
• Independents: Down 22 percent
• Republicans: Down 28 percent

Republicans expected more out of Trump and did not get it. This is a reflection on the war in Iran, tariffs, and inflation.

Consumer Sentiment Drops in September to Just Above Record Lows

On September 25, I noted Consumer Sentiment Drops in September to Just Above Record Lows

Republican attitudes decline the most, but from higher levels.

Partisan Sentiment Changes

• After particularly large declines in sentiment this month, Republican sentiment is now 20% lower than January 2026.
• Democrats are down 13% over the same period.

It was interesting to see Cook Political pick up on this point as well in relation to possible turnout.

How Many Seats in Play?

• Cook Political Range: 2-6
• Mish Range: 3-7 with 8 possible but unlikely

From where things stand, +3 Democrats and a 50-50 tie (broken by Vice-President Vance) would be a big moral Republican victory.

Mish Senate Call

1. Alaska: Lean Democrat
2. Iowa: Tilt Democrat
3. Kansas: Tossup
4. Ohio: Likely Democrat
5. North Carolina: Solid Democrat
6. Texas: Likely Democrat
7. Maine: Lean Democrat
8. Nebraska: Lean Republican

Democrat Win Senate Odds

• Mish: 65 percent chance
• Polymarket: 65 percent chance
• Cook Political: Unreported
• Kalshi: 66 percent
• Nate Silver Deluxe: 73.9 percent
• Nate Silver Classic: 70.2 percent
• Nate Silver Lite: 73.3 percent

I was the first by far to get to 65 percent, but I am reluctant to go higher.

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