Cook Political shifts 3 Senate ratings towards Democrats.
Democrat Victory In Sight
Please note A Senate Majority is Squarely in Democrats’ Sights as Kansas Moves to Toss Up; Two Other Races Shift Left
At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many. As such, we are revising our estimate of potential pickups to two to six seats for Democrats — squarely within the range of the four seats they need to net for a majority.
And we are moving three Senate ratings, all in Democrats’ direction: Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up, New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, and North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat.
Kansas: Lean Republican to Toss Up
Democrats’ Cinderella story of the cycle — has jumped up in our ratings at a rapid and surprising pace. We shifted it from Likely Republican into the Lean Republican column just two weeks ago. Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024, so it remains a heavy lift for Democrats. But there is perhaps a perfect confluence of events happening: a stronger-than-expected Democratic challenger who has a moderate message and credentials; an incumbent who was slow to wake up to the real threat both his opponent and the environment pose; and erosion in Trump’s support on the ground rooted in the agriculture economy’s struggles over high fuel and fertilizer prices and distrust over beef imports.
The Midwest overall is a major headache for the GOP this fall, and GOP Sen. Roger Marshall has done his party few favors by failing to lock in for this race earlier in the year. One Republican strategist told us that Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton is Democrats’ best recruit this cycle, and there’s a very real scenario where the party loses this seat for the first time in nearly a century.
A high-quality New York Times/Siena poll this weekend showed the race tied, and private Democratic surveys show it trending toward Hamilton, though Republicans still believe Marshall has a small lead. Notably, Hamilton doesn’t need to hit a 50% threshold to win due to a third party candidate; the Libertarian on the ballot took 5% in the Times poll.
New Hampshire: Toss Up to Lean Democrat
We moved this race into Toss Up several weeks ago with the caveat that it could shift back in Democrats’ favor if the national environment continued to rapidly erode for Republicans — and that’s exactly where we are. While private polling back in September showed a surprisingly close or tied race, surveys now show Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas opening up a lead over former Republican Sen. John Sununu. An AARP/St. Anselm poll released today shows Pappas up 51%-44%.
This race could still end up being closer than it should be given the national environment. Democratic ads hitting Sununu for his own work for a lobbying firm seem to have penetrated, but Pappas — who weathered a barrage of attack ads over the summer for his now-husband’s lobbying work for Amazon — also has work to do in the closing weeks to rally voters who aren’t fans of the Democratic Party either.
Still, in a state where Trump is deeply underwater, we have to call Pappas the favorite here.
North Carolina: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
Republicans were still holding out hope for their prospects in the Tar Heel State until the end of September. But, on Oct. 2, the Senate Leadership Fund began cutting some of their remaining TV reservations and reallocating that money to Kansas. The inevitable triage demonstrates that the GOP has too many other problems in red states to continue to justify investing in Republican Michael Whatley, who never caught fire as a candidate. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has long been one of the party’s top recruits — with a simple “Make Stuff Cost Less” mantra — and he continues to put the party in pole position to hand Democrats their first net flip on Election Night.
The final margin here may still end up being in the mid-single digits, but privately Republicans don’t see a viable path to victory, and neither do we. The race shifts from Lean Democrat into the Likely Democrat column, where Georgia also now sits — both surprising moves we wouldn’t have predicted at the outset of the cycle.
Stick a Fork in These Races
Also see the Cook Political report Stick a Fork in These Races
With less than a month until the midterm election, we are starting to see a certain clarity in the Senate races, though the House doesn’t seem to have reached that point. While it’s clear the House majority will flip from Republican to Democrat, how many seats will change hands and the approximate size of the new majority remain open questions.
The big story is the cratering of GOP prospects over the last six weeks. A glimpse of that is obvious in consumer confidence among Republicans plummeting during September, a harbinger of low GOP voter turnout next month. [emphasis added] It’s not a question of whether the GOP will have a bad night, but how bad will it be, despite structural advantages that should have precluded them from having a devastating midterm.
In the Senate, two previously competitive races now seem to be done deals. Arguably, freshman Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia was effectively reelected the day GOP Gov. Brian Kemp decided not to challenge him, but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that Ossoff has secured his seat in a way few would have predicted two years ago. Similarly, in North Carolina, GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’s decision not to seek a third term and former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s decision to seek the open seat effectively sealed that race in Democrats’ favor. In both cases, Trump’s inability to play well with the other kids in his own party effectively cost the GOP the seat; one can also say that Trump’s lack of support for Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, and subsequent endorsement of GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton, may well have punted another seat. While Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has proved to be a skillful and impressive candidate and raised tons of money, the reality is that had Cornyn been renominated, the seat would probably remain safely in Republican hands.
Seven seats currently held by Republicans, including both North Carolina and Texas, are now top-tier targets for Democrats. Joining them are toss-up Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio, and the newest addition, Kansas. Last week’s New York Times/Siena University poll made that official, showing GOP Sen. Roger Marshall and pastor Adam Hamilton tied at 45 percent. Many had felt the race was tightening, but this was the first high-quality, reliable poll to show it. (Let me reiterate that if you’re following key Senate and gubernatorial races, focus on first-class polling, specifically The New York Times/Siena, AARP, CNN, Fox News, Marist University, Marquette University Law School, and Washington Post/George Mason Schar School. Life is too short to look at crummy and/or misleading polling. [emphasis added] Those six entities have released about two dozen high-quality state polls over the last three months, far superior to 95 percent of the political polls bouncing around the internet.)
With that, Cook Political moved much closer to what I have been calling.
Partisan Sentiment
Partisan Sentiment Change Since February 2025
- Democrats: Down 13 percent
- Independents: Down 22 percent
- Republicans: Down 28 percent
Republicans expected more out of Trump and did not get it. This is a reflection on the war in Iran, tariffs, and inflation.
Consumer Sentiment Drops in September to Just Above Record Lows
On September 25, I noted Consumer Sentiment Drops in September to Just Above Record Lows
Republican attitudes decline the most, but from higher levels.
Partisan Sentiment Changes
- After particularly large declines in sentiment this month, Republican sentiment is now 20% lower than January 2026.
- Democrats are down 13% over the same period.
It was interesting to see Cook Political pick up on this point as well in relation to possible turnout.
How Many Seats in Play?
- Cook Political Range: 2-6
- Mish Range: 3-7 with 8 possible but unlikely
From where things stand, +3 Democrats and a 50-50 tie (broken by Vice-President Vance) would be a big moral Republican victory.
Mish Senate Call
- Alaska: Lean Democrat
- Iowa: Tilt Democrat
- Kansas: Tossup
- Ohio: Likely Democrat
- North Carolina: Solid Democrat
- Texas: Likely Democrat
- Maine: Lean Democrat
- Nebraska: Lean Republican
Democrat Win Senate Odds
- Mish: 65 percent chance
- Polymarket: 65 percent chance
- Cook Political: Unreported
- Kalshi: 66 percent
- Nate Silver Deluxe: 73.9 percent
- Nate Silver Classic: 70.2 percent
- Nate Silver Lite: 73.3 percent
I was the first by far to get to 65 percent, but I am reluctant to go higher.
Related Posts
September 22, 2026: Republican Politicians Distance Themselves from Trump. Sorry, Too Late
Even in deep red states, republicans stand up to Trump.
October 3, 2026: MAGA Is Overrun by Scandals, Insane Nonsense, and Infighting
It’s been a very bad week for MAGA.
October 5, 2026: If the Polls Are Correct, Democrats Will Win the Kansas Senate Race
A major upset is in play.
I expect trump ie the republicans to harass dem states with ice and such or at least tie up the news. Then any loss in red states will be called fraud. I say this because the solid reds states have the infrastructure in place to make it happen. From election officials/ ag/ judges/ to the politicians themselves. .
The Republican Party and those who control it are shifting money from purple to shore up solid red districts. Cant let the poor red voter base see the light so to speak policy wise.
Also worth watching is South Carolina, who is currently having their tightest race in decades thanks to Trump nominating a massive dud who won’t campaign and calling her opponent a “trannie” (she’s not). If South Carolina of all places flips the fat lady starts singing.
The Republican candidate is very naive, ignorant, unqualified and uneducated. I think she perfectly embodies the spirit of South Caroline.
She will definitely win.
Polls are tied. I’ve never in all my years seen polls tied in SC. If that race is even remotely close I wouldn’t be shocked to see dems in the 7-8 seat ballpark nationwide.
Also, SC is full of new people who moved in over the last decade or so. It has shifted voter demographics notably but nobody cares because they write the Carolinas off regardless of their incredibly fast growth. If SC doesn’t go blue here it’s very possible it will next time if only due to the continuing growth that won’t slow down any time soon.
“I wouldn’t be shocked to see dems in the 7-8 seat ballpark nationwide.”
That means they will need 6 rotating villains? No biggie! LOL
Does it matter, really??!! The donorCRAT Party can generate as many “rotating villains” as needed.
Let’s say they do so well that they get to 55 seats. Then they will need 6 rotating villains: Example – Fetterman, Coons, Kelly, Hickenlooper, Bennett, Ossoff (who would want to do a Newsom and insulate himself from a “far-left” label ahead of his 2028 campaign).
There. Easy-peasy. I got 6 right away. And waiting in the wings are others like Tester, Warner etc.
And I have not even mentioned any of the new Senators who could become the rotating villains – Peltola, Talarico, Jackson. They could be the “relief villains” that can substitute for, and protect any of their senior villains who could be up for re-election in 2028.
What difference does it make really?
The system is crooked.
Only crooks can succeed in a crooked system.
If one believes that it is in the nuance of the DEGREE of crookedness, which many voters somehow can make that their goal, then they VOTE.
I cannot vote between the Party of Stupid Ideas (R’s) versus the party of NO IDEAS (D’s).
Or, is it the other way around or is it shades of gray?
Confucius said that, in a well-run society, it is shameful to be poor.
In a badly-run society, it is shameful to be rich.
I still don’t see what you see? The MSM is pushing this development, but with no voting done yet, it’s simply what they are spewing.
I see several people displayed as having a leg up in races, but that’s not at all reality imo, when you start seeing the actual results, they will be the opposite in fact, imo.
Polling does this all the time. It’s happened with Trump and Many Others before him. They have been very wrong in the past, and they will be very wrong again. That’s why it’s called Polling and not Results…
The Senate will not fall to the Dems, and it will be close in their minds,, but too far away from close to being even considered calling it close imo. We shall see soon enough!
The results in my state, which is a battleground, are validating the MSM outlook.
We had a state Supreme Court race in early 2025, at the height of the DOGE nonsense.
The liberal judge won by 10 points, which is a huge percentage in this evenly divided state.
This spring, same thing. The liberal won by 20 points, against a basic conservative candidate.
Trump is forcing competent candidates out; he’s dragging down the good ones; he’s drowning out the issues by making the elections all about him, and his policies like tariffs and war are making things substantially worse for the average voter.
Amazingly, the Republicans spending advantage doesn’t seem to help them.
Tamari o is now toast, and has pulled advertising, events etc. Sayad is also gone, it’s just a matter of time before he pulls a Talarico and disappears. They are going to quickly become what was going to happen all along. Say night-night to any hopes of the Senate IMHO!
You willing to bet on that stu-pid?
I especially want to see El Sayed beat Mike Rogers in Michigan. Rogers is a monster – a neocon warmonger and deep state goon.
I see no possible way that happens. He may lose to someone else, but not him. His getting more arrogant and understanding his days are numbered. They are one by one it appears now…
My wife was watching her “Dancing With the Stars” program tonight and I was observing.
President Trump’s commercial appeared with him striding along a dark hallway glowering into the camera.
The words “Paid for by the US Government” appeared at the end.
Frustrated, I retrieved my mail-in ballot and voted for every single Democrat. Haven’t done that since I was a young liberal idealist college student.
Sealed the envelope, will hand-deliver it to the city hall tomorrow.
“I was the first by far to get to 65 percent, but I am reluctant to go higher.”
Why reluctant? What could Trump possibly do now to turn things around? What can GOP do to make things better for Americans? Election less than 30 days away.
Excellent analysis btw. 2-star Mishelin award granted.
Trump will probably escalate in Iran – expecting a “rally round the flag” effect. If he does, it will makes his popularity drop even more.
Yes, I expect a false-flag event in Israel or even the US.
I want to see more quality polls in Iowa, Alaska, and Maine
Just a reminder, as of tomorrow, October 7th, 46 states will have early voting open.
The election has already started
I plan to vote early at my county BOE here in OH.
I will not vote for “Vivek”, and I can’t vote for D’s. I will either vote Libertarian or leave the governor chad hanging in place.
Also need to vote down my city’s umpteenth attempt to pass a local income tax. Which they claim will reduce property taxes (uh, huh, yeah, get f*cked, liars). And of course the income tax doesn’t apply to senior citizens so guess where the few yard signs in support of the issue are? Ok, boomers. Hurry up and die off, please.
One of the things that could save a republican senate majority would be a systematic polling error that would underreport republican support in all states, or in most swings states at least. Nate Silver did report on that, and also highlighted that these systematic polling errors that are strongly correlated between states are more rare in midterm elections. The reason for that would be that the ballots are more distinct than in presidential years, when people in all states have to think about the same options for (vice) president. Now there is not such a unifying item on the ballot that would drive a highly correlated polling error, but it could still happen of course. If Republicans lose fewer than 4 senate seats, than such a polling error must have occurred. I don’t see what would cause a big enough shift in sentiment otherwise.
btw – the systematic error is equally likely to fall in the other direction, in which case Kansas, Nebraska and I believe even South Carolina might elect a democrat senator.