At long last, Cook Political is where everyone else was four or five months ago.
GOP on Track to Lose House Majority
On September 25, 2026, Cook Political drummed up the courage to admit GOP on Track to Lose House Majority as 15 Race Ratings Shift Towards Dems
Despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November.
Unlike in 2018, the last midterm cycle when Republicans were in power, the most competitive House races are almost entirely in districts that President Donald Trump won. But, in large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts.
Democrats currently hold 215 seats, meaning they need to gain just three seats to take back the majority. But the realm of competitive and potentially competitive districts is fairly small. The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats pick up five to 15 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 220 to 230 seats in 2027 — a fairly slim majority in modern U.S. history.
The political environment has solidified over the past few months, and new polling and ad spending warrants ratings changes in 15 races, all in Democrats’ favor. After these ratings changes, Democrats are favored in 208 races (those rated Solid, Likely, and Lean Democrat) and Republicans are favored in 205 races.
We’re just under six weeks out from the election, and our ratings will continue to change as we have more polling data and see the result of television advertising that only started in earnest this month.
In some districts rated Lean Republican or Likely Republican, polling shows races that are tied but also have a significant share of undecided voters. The undecided voters in those districts — which generally voted for Trump by double-digit margins in 2024 — would typically favor Republicans, and GOP operatives are holding out hope that they will turn out this November. But if, a month from now, Republicans’ numbers haven’t shifted, Democrats may be able to push even deeper into redder territory and further expand their majority.
At the same time, several Republican incumbents who sit in Toss Up seats could move into the Lean Democrat category, as it becomes clear which ones are likely to be swept out by a wave, and which ones have a better chance at surviving.
Timely Report Not
Well thank you for that timely report to all the way to lean Democrat.
Or is that just a tilt?
Polymarket and Kalshi
Nate Silver Odds and Seat Projection
Nate Silver House Projection Model
Nate Silver’s Deluxe model projects 237 seats. That is higher than Cook Political’ s 230 projection assuming Democrats win every tossup.
Silver Odds of Democrat Sweep
- Deluxe: 68.6 percent
- Classic: 65.9 percent
- Lite: 70.1 percent
Unfortunately, Cook political does not give odds.
However, judging from their commentary, I think they are in the 60 percent range for the House while the betting markets and Silver are above 60 percent for the whole enchilada.
Which Party Will Control Congress
I am reluctant to go much over 65 percent so that is about right by my estimate.
Kalshi is at 62 percent.
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The Democrats keep campaigning on affordability , yet if they do take congress it will be 2 years of impeachments , investigations . Nothing will be about affordability , just more of the same from them
What exactly are they supposed to do with the executive office being filled by king retard? Trump will continue to own every loss of his admin while Dems will net popular wins restraining ICE and sacking shitbirds like Hegseth. The play for them is a slow roll into an almost guaranteed presidential election.
And this is assuming Trump doesn’t do something that finally gets what’s left of his party to throw him under the bus. If I were a GOP congressman in anything close to a competitive seat, I’d be looking for a way off the Trumptanic ASAP.
I wouldn’t count my chickens before they hatch as it is still early in the game.
Outgoing Texas Sen. John Cornyn told CNN’s Manu Raju that he won’t fundraise for Ken Paxton, who was endorsed by Trump and then lost the primary to the former AG, saying Paxton is a flawed candidate and that this is how some majority parties become minorities.
Wow.
I never underestimate reactionary tendencies.
Talarico suffers double poll blow as Texas undecided voters decide
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/talarico-suffers-double-poll-blow-134456620.html