Likely voters favored Democratic candidates over Republicans by 11 percentage points in New York Times/Siena poll.
Trump Approval Hits New Low Two Weeks Before Midterms
The New York Times reports Trump Approval Hits New Low Two Weeks Before Midterms, Poll Finds
President Trump’s approval rating hit a new low just a few weeks before the midterm elections, driven down by broad disapproval of his handling of the economy, the war in Iran and high gas prices, according to a new national poll from The New York Times and Siena University.
Just 36 percent of likely voters said that they approved of Mr. Trump’s performance, while 59 percent said that they disapproved. That is his lowest approval rating recorded in any Times/Siena poll. More than two-thirds of independent voters said that they disapproved of the way he has handled his job as president.
Likely voters said that they preferred Democratic candidates over Republicans by 11 percentage points in their congressional districts in the final Times/Siena national poll before the midterm elections, a slight improvement for Democrats since last month. The metric is widely seen as a strong indicator of political momentum.
The national political environment is bleak for Republicans. Americans broadly disapprove of economic conditions under the Trump administration, with three-quarters rating the economy as fair or poor. A majority of voters blame Mr. Trump for the decline: 69 percent disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, 65 percent disapprove of his handling of the war in Iran and nearly three-quarters disapprove of his handling of gas prices, which are above $4 a gallon.
Among all registered voters, including those who are less likely to vote, Mr. Trump’s approval rating was even worse, with 34 percent approving of his job performance. Mr. Trump built his 2016 and 2024 wins partly on the strength of his support among white voters without a college degree, but the poll found that group is about evenly split in its approval of his job, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.
A majority of likely voters now see the Democratic Party as the party of the working class — a shift from 2022, when voters gave the Republican Party the edge. Voters also see Democrats as more likely to keep their promises than Republicans, a striking reversal from two years ago, when Republicans held an advantage on that question.
And majorities across nearly every demographic group now view Democrats as more understanding and able to fix the problems of average Americans.
How Sentiment Changed Over Time
Data for the following MishTalk charts is from NYT 2026-10-21 Toplines. These charts are registered voters as opposed to likely voters.
NYT/Siena Poll National Voter Preference Over Time
The poll shows a +12 (Registered Voters), national preference for Democrats in the NYT/Siena Oct 12-19 2026 poll up from +2 on Sep 22-27 2025.
The NYT chart is likely voters.
Trump’s Handling Job as President Over Time
Trump’s Handling the Economy Over Time
Biggest Unforced Political Error in History
It’s easy to spot the timeframe in which all hell broke loose for Trump. Trump’s War with Iran started on February 28, 2026.
Between mid-January and mid-May Trump’s net strong-approval fell from -21 percent to -35 percent.
Voters were already upset over inflation, jobs, and tariffs, then Trump made one of the biggest unforced political errors in history by starting a deeply unpopular war.
Trump had a chance at walking away by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran that opened the Strait of Hormuz
The US–Iran MOU—known as the Islamabad Memorandum—was drafted on June 14, 2026, virtually signed on June 15, and formally signed on June 17, 2026, starting a 60-day window for peace and nuclear negotiations
Trump broke the MOU blaming Iran. The MOU ceased August 17, 2026.
Oil prices surged at the start of the war, then diesel prices followed with even steeper increases as a result of Iran targeting refineries in the Mideast and Ukraine targeting Russian refineries.
Trump blames everyone but himself for rising energy prices. Voters accurately blame Trump.
Related Posts
October 16, 2026: Trump Has a 91% Disapproval Rating from Voters Under 30 on Inflation
“The worst I have ever seen in any poll, on any issue for any president”
October 19, 2026: Republicans Have a Huge Gap in Ad Spending, But Does It matter?
The Republican cash edge is entirely in the Senate. The House is a lost cause.
October 20, 2026: How Many House Seats Will Republicans Win in Texas Gerrymandering?
Trump set the methodology based on his performance alone. He ignored Hispanics.
The Immigration First! party, aka Democrat, just admitted that in California, they haven’t verified any voter’s citizenship, ever. It seems that would violate Federal voting law concerning federal elections, but I am no Constiturional scholar.
Dems trusted more even on immigration? Only by a whisker at +4, but I would have guesses GOP was still up at least a dozen points on that one. WOW.
I would not take that poll seriously.
I would. I was deeply opposed to the wide open boarders like a lot of folks. But my hope was to see a focus on deporting gangs, closing the border more securely, updating immigration law, and creating a path to citizenship for the rest. Sending out ICE thugs turned off probably 50% of the people who wanted to see immigration more controlled.
Poll results are all question dependent, and the NYT is just polling Democratic talking points so it weighs the wrong opinions. Trump is the clear winner when you ask the right questions like:
“Hating on the Trans”
“Shootin’ Mexicans”
“Shootin’ illegal Mexicans”
“No black chicks with funny laughs”
“Takin’ our guns”
“Welfare for black people”
“Trump is Jesus”
/s
You should see how they phrase things at Zerohedge, even you would blush.
Well done Trump……keep up your marvellous work….let’s have some more empty arenas at your ‘ stupid rallies’; let’s see some more rises in the prices of gas and diesel; Oh and food prices; tariff them to raise them much higher and make America Stupid Again….and how about praising violence again….
I used to vote mainly Republican, with maybe a couple Democrats lower down the ballot. Since Trump I have voted Democrat across the board. Anyone who supports the party of Trump will never get my vote, even for dog catcher.
“Biggest Unforced Political Error in History’
There was nothing politcal about the decision. He was forced to by Israel. Just look at the 40 million spent by Israel trying to influence the Michigan election. Both parties seem to be under the control of a small country of 9 million people.
israel was a useful idiot since the british mandate. the pawn of our empire has figured out how to get it’s tentacles around all the testes and teats of the us congress, potus, and military…………i think the epstein affair is a testament to the CIA Mossad lengths to go to for blackmailing powerful people.
He wasn’t forced. It’s what he wanted to do.
Like the related Epstein files, the “forced” meme helps his hapless voters console themselves, to lie to themselves that they weren’t played as complete fools and that they’re still not complete fools. It is about saving their egos and helping them believe the political system is one less level corrupt than it is, so they can continue donating and voting for uniparty R-wing candidates instead of organizing.
Now, *how* does Israel force Trump’s hand?
Hint “We spent $MMM on your campaign so you owe us now!” is easily countered with “So what? Make me.”
In Texas, repubs are spending $hundreds of millions with musk alone contributing $158 million to the convicted felon paxton and another $100 million to others. As he advances his tech investments, he has purchased key officials.
In reference to the below TEF posting on social democrats:
…. Going back a little further than 1959 to 1953. Had operation Ajax (CIA) and operation Boot (MI6) not overthrown the democratically elected secular Iranian prime minister in 1953: an un-traumatized Iran, with nationalized oil revenues, would have likely acquired a nuclear weapon about the same time or little after Israel; there would have been no Iran-Iraq war in the 80’s; no death to America, no Jimmy Carter hostages; a two state solution state would have been implemented because of MAD; there would have been no invasion of Kuwait by Saddam; no 1990’s gulf war, likely no 911; no OIF war; no Afghan war; no 7 Oct Hamas attack on Israel, no Israeli genocide on the elderly, women and children using American weapons; and Israel would be presently behaving appropriately in the community of nations consistent with post US and European WW2 international law and order.
And with America already great and the citizens doing well fiscally, little appeal for the red hat slogan.
BINGO. I CONCUR. AFTER PONDERING FOR DECADES I HAVE COME TO CONCLUSION THAT IKE WAS THE WORST POTUS IN MY LIFE. I WAS BORN IN MAY 1960….
The Swamp is about to swallow Trump.
November 2026 will be his Waterlou. You should play some ABBA to celebrate.
love that song and video. thanks for reminder to watch it. hawt
The number of people who vote at the polls has to be declining every election. It is amazing how much money is being spent on political ads when a majority probably vote by mail now, many days or weeks before Election Day.
I wager 4000 quatloos the incumbents will lose!
Meanwhile Israel is buzzing Iran with fighter jets, trying to provoke them into attacking. Netanyahu without a full-blown war is like a vampire without blood, especially when there is an election on.
Trump is sending more and more ships to the region, though most likely just as a show of force to get Iran to cave in negotiations. It won’t work, as Iran appears to be fully prepared for the war to ramp back up again.
“I wager 5000 quatloos the newcomers will be destroyed!”
Some betting market should adopt “quatloo” as the name of their on-system crypto.
…because the only thing I want more than a new political economy, world peace, and immortality is for all STOS memes to properly reify.
NYT poll? meh.
The voters have not forgotten the blatant criminality and utter depravity of the DNC party in just 2 years.
I wouldn’t disagree about the Democrats blatant criminality and utter depravity if discussing their leadership and pusillanimous followers but Trump, smarmy Speaker Johnson, other House leadership, House Freedom Caucus, Majority Leader Thune, Senate leadership and the conservative Senate Steering Committee led by MAGA Mike Lee unconditional support of the wars, tax cuts, cutting Medicare and Medicaid, have fence sitting Democrats and moderate to progressive Democrats move back into the Democratic camp this election season in a short two years.
Conservative GOP and moderates similarly will stay home or vote Democratic due to inflation, the wars, usurious rents, loss of full time jobs, and the GOP servility to Trump no matter what he says or does.
Personally after George W Bush, Trump I and Biden I didn’t think Trump II would muck it up this bad, so quickly. He not only tore off the mask of corruption for all to see, he double downed on it.
Teflon Don has lost his ability to separate his boorish histrionics at his packed rallies during Trump I the candidate and president to today’s hecklers at those half filled rallies. The normally supine conservative media during the first year or so of Trump II and a minority but a growing cadre of GOP politicians and mega donors are either abandoning him or hedging their bets.
As JFK remarked after the Bay of Pigs, “Success has a thousand fathers, failure is an orphan.”
Nope… but they’ve seen it dwarfed by the Guardians Of Pedophiles.
On Social Democrats:
In 1959, the US operated under FDR’s social democrat reforms and Ike’s wariness of the military-industrial complex.
American citizens, the middle class, in particular, have been thoroughly screwed by US corporations, by corporation and Zionist lobbyists, and politicians completely owned by those lobbyists.
I asked AI:
What would the US government deficit be if corporate and private taxes were the same as in 1959, NAFTA and trade agreements with China had not been implemented, Reagan budgetary deficits were kept to 2%, and the US were not involved in Vietnam and middle east wars including Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran?
AI Abbreviated Answer: By removing over $9 trillion in direct war costs, introducing a 91% top tax bracket, and wiping out decades of compounding interest from the 1980s forward, the federal government would have completely inverted its financial position. Rather than debating deficit ceilings, the U.S. would likely be managing a multi-trillion-dollar sovereign wealth surplus.
FDR style programs that are pro workers farmers veterans and small business owner is the way to go plus taxing the rich works out well for we the citizens. However I am not with you on using ai
“However I am not with you on using ai.”
How could it be otherwise Mr. Ludd?
By using or own sense our own minds
Do you see AI as having no place or a limited role in our lives? Only one answer acknowledges reality.
Thatz the trick question but in my opinion ai should have no role in our lives and I am a realist Read Player Piano By Kurt Vonnegut Jr . Where the machines or robotics
Read the book and find out for yourself
nobody payed 91%. total bullshit.
This is why they’re going to have thousands of armed Brown Shirts at urban polling stations, attacking minorities (citizens) who intend to vote. Once it became clear that they could give total immunity, even in cases of outright murder, to the white nationalists and J6ers wearing ICE windbreakers and masks, there’s no bottom too low.
If it comes to that, I’d hope they shoot back.
It’s not very practical to have brown shirts out every day of early voting across the entire country. They may have some people there on election day but by then most people will have voted already. In 2024, 60% of the vote was cast early. The “enthusiastic” crowd goes early and this time around it’s the democrats that are voting early based on the labs link I posted in another comment.
https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-voters-cast-ballots-early-and-by-mail/
Whatever. I voted early yesterday and it was peaceful and cordial. Take the doom porn over to ZH. People here aren’t going to leer at that.
The republicans will try some scare tactics but it will back fire and more citizens will vote but do not expect much from the democrats. Perhaps they will force hegseth and kennedy out but not much will change
I want to say it was the child rape that brought them around, but I know it was fuel prices.
rape without complaint is the GOP value of the day
Vivek approves this message
I just got an email that our dear leader gifted my children with a grand in their automatically opened Orangutan Account! I’ll hang his picture over the mantle and burn incense before it.
Get lots of guided plastic to put around it, like i the Oval Office.
Nobody ever admitted to voting for Nixon in 1972.
I was only 2yo so you can’t pin that on me.
my parents were red diaper babies. born in 1916 both of them. i grew up understanding the bullshit of pax amerikan propaganda. my peers were all raised like unweaned whelps. like most amerikans the past 85 years
I was born in an election year – wore diapers decorated with elephants & donkeys!
Witkoff’s stunning success in Moscow today will change the tide. All red-blooded Americans wanted to hear a MAGA American call Putin a humanitarian.
I wonder if there is anything to the rumor that Putin provides targeting data to Iran. Might that not pass to Houthis? Because the scuttlebutt suggests we (not We the People, but We the Trump studio audience) are about to start something over there:
US orders departure of diplomats from Saudi Arabia amid Houthi strikes (Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-preparing-issue-ordered-departure-some-personnel-gulf-embassies-us-officials-2026-10-21/
I believe Yes
National-security wise, this vaguely reminds me of Trump coddling crypto personalities and their entities, who reportedly have hosted offshore money laundering operations of Iran and North Korea (and business in other weird corners of the global criminal scene, click farms in Myanmar and so on). This coincides with the legalization of related crypto technologies in the USA financial system, and by pure coincidence, to quiet flows of benefits to Trump-affiliated entities (and cross-hirings between administration figures on the inside of such projects, and then quickly to plush jobs for at least one major global stablecoin issuer, “consulting” or whatever). There are lots of family affiliates and enterprises in the picture, getting topped up with rewards.
I wonder, if I were a front line service member, might I not feel a bit weird about that?
Everything I’m hearing is that Iran is getting weapons, financial, and targeting help from both the Russians and the Chinese. Both have a clear desire to have a strong Iran in place to oppose the US in the Middle East.
Turkey is also interested in seeing Iran succeed, despite joining the Mecca Defense Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Erdogan knows Israel will be coming for his country if Iran is neutralized.
Did you hear that former ambassador to Greece AKA guilfoyle was collaborating with the irgc? If thatz true then she is a traitor AKA guilty of treason. She should be investigated and if she committed crimes then she should be prosecuted
Never heard the IRGC collaboration, seems unlikely. Do you have a link?
She is used to playing both sides though, marrying Gavin Newsom and then engaged to Donald Trump Jr.!
do you really think you could tell the difference in a blind test of Trump Sr or Jr or dreamy Gavin’s personal lives and policies and politics and ruling over people? on your life, you could NOT. Trump and Biden are interchangeable parts. democracy works. amerikans are assholes, red and blue. bombs away with pax dumbfuckistan.
Dmitry the Greek attorney on youtube with Mario Nawfal and yes she would commit treason for $10 or more or half a piece of crack or half a sniff of coke
Treason applies only if war is declared by Congress and not manufactured by a president.
Not true for instance our US Civil War the confederates were traitors meaning they committed treason
They could’ve been tried but pragmatic leadership opted to not prosecute them. Jefferson Davis for example was jailed for two years for treason but never stood trial.
Cornelius Vanderbilt, ironically, a Northerner was one of those that posted his bail.
Or Andrew Johnson was in on it with the confederates
Neither Lincoln nor Grant wanted to prosecute. In fact, Grant paroled Lee and his army.
During Johnson’s presidency Lee and Jefferson were arrested. Grant threatened to resign if Lee were prosecuted. The charges were quietly dropped. Davis was jailed for two years. Supreme Court Justice Chase and the AG were both against prosecuting him for constitutional reasons and likely a hung jury or acquitted due to the trial would be held in Virginia.
If the pig made money out of of it, then I am sure she would have done so. One of America’s finest, I’m sure.
Yeah guilfoyle izza buffarillo and I am not sure if that beast izza man or a woman and real yucky haha. I bet she made a deal with the irgc
I got a text stream from family members yesterday, all went to vote early as soon as the polls opened and they all said they voted straight democrat.
I’m not sure how the demented MAGA arm of the family voted as no one talks to those morons but I’ll try to ping some of the less evil ones to find out. I suspect a few abstained from voting but the die hard ones will support orange clown no matter what.
According to this site: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2026-early-voting/
16 million people have already voted.
My MAGAT family members abstained in the last election, probably will again.
They still believe in the Trumpstien Golden Age bullshit at some level, though. It’s like when I tried to convince them that WWE bouts are scripted. The best I could get them to was “Ok, I know it’s not real, but it’s a little bit real.’
The correlation between WWE fans and Trumpstien fans is probably at least .8
Tell them to spend less time on WWE and more time on Mishtalk, CNBC, and Bloomberg and they may be in their own golden age.
Way too many fancy pants words get thrown around on this forum for their reading level. They’d pop in, get mad, and disappear like so many of them do.
Yes, the words here are too fancy.
You guys really crack me up!
You have an enchanting giggle, miss.
Got to admit the level of athleticism in wwe is up there with any sport.
it’s ballet for latent homosexuals
Ouch.
Examples would be? narco marco
chump
vance
lutnick and laura loomer whom may be a biological man
ted cruz
stephen miller AKA stefanie miller
kim guilfoyle whom may be a biological man
thiel from palantir and is indeed a homosexual
and elon musk
ramaswamy and vince mcmahon and not sure if his alleged wife the alleged secretary of education linda macmahon is a biological man. That being said in advance to the usual over reactors have a sense of humor but realize some of these jerks are
Self
Hating
Homos
This was
True in the
ss
and
sa
Easy with the homophobia man, this ain’t 4chan
Kind of like huge, bellowing, bearded acrobats.
How can they be labeled MAGAT if they didn’t vote for R’s in 2024? Just wondering.