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US Jumps Over Italy and China in Number of Cases

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According to Worldometers, the number of US cases topped those in China and Italy for the first time today.

Hooray, We're Number 1?!

Covid Tracking Project

On March 22, I started a series of charts based on data from the Covid Tracking Project.

My trendline at the time suggested we might hit 100,000 cases today.

On March 22, I received an email accusing me of hyping the data because "It is not presently feasible to get to 100,000 cases in the US by March 26th."

The email also stated "These publications do more to incite hysteria and grab clicks than they provide any basis for decision-making."

Here is my March 22 post: Covid Tracking Project: How Long to 1 Million US Cases?

The amusing thing about my initial post on this data series is my specific statement about trends.

"Those are not my projections, those are observations of what would happen if the current trends last that long at the same pace."

2020-03-26 Observations

We did not hit 100,000 cases today. However, it is a near lock that we do so in the next three days.

Moreover, the data I posted is as of 4:00 PM Eastern. Other sources show we are at 83,672 for today, March 26.

That is about 1 day away from what the trend suggested on March 22.

The original trendline I posted is still close to intact. The US will hit 100,000 cases within a couple days.

New York

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New York Trends

New York is likely to hit 1,000 deaths by the end of the month.

If the trends hold for a week, New York will top 10,000 deaths by April 3. That is not a prediction, it is a projection based on current trends.

The NY death trend is undoubtedly high as it is ahead of the entire US. The US trends are far more likely to be accurate than the US trends.

US Trends

On March 22, the trend for 1,000 US deaths was today. Unfortunately, we hit 1,209 deaths today. (So much for that email of accusing me of hype).

The March 22, the trend for 10,000 US deaths was April 5. Today the trend suggests 10,000 deaths by April 7.

The death rate has accelerated, and if you look at the slope, I downplayed the jump (the last 7 data points are all above the line I drew). Thus, April 7 might be optimistic. An alternate trendline suggests April 4, still in line with the March 22 trend.

Either way, the people accusing me of hype owe me one huge apology.

Hospitalization Trends

The critical trends are not deaths but hospitalizations.

We are overloading hospitals right now at 10,000 cases. The trend suggests we could hit 100,000 hospitalizations by April 5.

Without a doubt, that will blow hospitals out of the water.

New York Out of Beds

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Louisiana Out of Ventilators

Guess who forgot to shut down Mardi Gras.


What About Gowns?

Please note New York Nurses Out of Medical Gowns Wear Trash Bags

Cuomo to Trump "You Pick the 26,000 Who Will Die"

I discussed hospital bed and respirators in Cuomo to Trump "You Pick the 26,000 Who Will Die"

Rhode Island Afraid of New York

Go to New York for any reason then back to Rhode Island and you are subject to a 14-day quarantine.

For details, please see Rhode Island Restricts Travel to New York.

Conspiracy Theory

Every day, I still have people telling me this is No Worse than the Flu™

They side with Trump.

This a Conspiracy Against Trump led by Blue State Governors and the media. Just send everyone back to work and don't worry about it.

It's still just one big lie. Deaths are exaggerated.

And most importantly, this is No Worse than the Flu™.

Few are dying.

We are at 15 cases, soon to be zero.

Hello Trump Faithful and Conspiracy Believers

Her is my reply again: Hello Trump, It's Not a Media Conspiracy, It's You

Meanwhile, please watch that trend of hospitalizations.

We are out of beds in many places and will be 100,000 beds short possibly in a week.

Acute Care Hospital Beds

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If you want to be 1,000,000 beds short, then hell, just send everyone back to work.

Meanwhile, please note: The current trend suggests that roughly 1 in 10 of those hospitalized will die from the virus.

Well, maybe that trend is wrong.

Carry On!?


The NY trends are more than a bit quirky.

I added this comment above "The NY death trend is undoubtedly high as it is ahead of the entire US. The US trends are far more likely to be accurate than the US trends."

A Word About Empty Statistics

Mike "Mish" Shedlock