Cases surges 25% last week. Arizona, Florida, and Texas set records.
Surge is Not Related to Increased Testing
Worrisome Charts
It is no longer possible to ignore the southern surge.
Here are some additional charts from Worldometers.
Florida Deaths and Projections
Florida Hospital Usage and Projections
Florida Social Distancing
California Deaths and Projections
California Hospital Usage and Projections
California Social Distancing
Georgia Deaths and Projections
Georgia Hospital Usage and Projections
Georgia Social Distancing
Texas Deaths and Projections
Texas Hospital Usage and Projections
Texas Social Distancing
Arizona Deaths and Projections
Arizona Hospital Usage and Projections
Arizona Social Distancing
Social Distancing Factors
- Educational Facilities Closed
- Gathering Restrictions
- Stay-at-Home Orders
- Business Closures
General Chart Notes
- Resources are specific to Covid-19 Patients
- Shaded areas are 95% confidence level
Death and hospital projections are based on social distancing announcements and current rates.
Projections, Who Believes Them?
I suspect most will look at these projections and laugh. They will point to projections of deaths of a million or more.
But those million projections were based on no social distancing at a time when very little was known about the disease.
Patterns Don’t Neatly Fit
Claim 1: States that practiced social distancing late and removed restrictions early are the hardest hit.
Reality 1: California does not fit the bill. It forced social distancing early on and still has strict social distancing but it is again hit hard.
Claim 2: Warm weather and going outside would put a quick end to Covid-19.
Reality 2: California, Georgia, Arizona, Florida, and Texas make a mockery of that prediction
Surge Explanation: What’s Going On?
- Both claims are partially true but many dismiss both outright because the patterns vary.
- Social distancing is just one factor.
- People are tired of wearing masks and social distancing.
- States are opening up just as more people believe it was all overdone in the first place.
- In contrast to March and April, it’s now too hot in the South to stay outdoors. So think about more people indoors, just as social distancing is removed.
Huge Surge Ahead of Trump Campaign Visit
Arizona reports Record Single-Day Increase in Coronavirus Cases ahead of Trump’s visit.
For details, please see Trump’s Campaign Visit to Arizona Church is Irresponsible at Best
There is a big risk to Trump’s move but we will not know the impact for weeks.
Mish
We need precise data on the nr of people coming in from Mexico for medical care. Mexico is peaking and some dual citizens are coming back – highly symptomatic – which is why many border-region hospitals have filled up.
About hot weather: it’s scientifically proven that the virus only lasts 30 seconds or so in hot, humid weather. But the worst thing about hot weather is that sunbelt people spend long periods of time in air-conditioned enclosed spaces, and many filters aren’t changed frequently enough and/or aren’t HEPA quality anyway. If you are outside when it’s hot, probably you are very safe. But if you are in a crowded, air-conditioned bar, probably not so good.
Lastly, given that hospitals get an extra $30,000 or whatever for treating covid patients, many people now coming in for delayed treatment, if they test positive are immediately added to covid numbers even though they may not be suffering all that much from it. There is an incentive in the system to inflate the numbers, put it that way.
But really: they should analyse how many people are coming across the border right now with symptoms during Mexico’s peak time.
I have a theory as to why things are surging in the south and southern California. This is where the weather is now hotter and people are “out” but going in and out and lot because its too hot outside. This causes them to sweat more on their palms and hands and in general. Sweat likely leads to surfaces being transmissible for longer. I also suspect humidity as a bigger factor in general. Arizona is dry but I think there people are staying indoors in places like restaurants and other places. Anyone who has been to Arizona in June can tell you you are constantly sweating all day and trying to get indoors when you do go out. Hand sanitizer dries out your hands so you should be putting it on all the time if you are going out unless you can wash your hands every time you touch common areas like restaurant doors. Take your vitamins, especially B and D. Being in the heat while helpful to getting vitamin D can also make you profusely sweat in the south and this is exactly what allows the virus to be transmissible. Keep your hands dry.
واجهات حجر ابيض ازازي
https://www.decoration-altheqa.com/white-stone-facades/
واجهات منازل حجر ابيض ازازي
https://www.altheqa-stone.com/white-stone/
اسعار الحجر الابيض الازازي ,سعر متر الحجر الابيض الازازي
https://www.altheqa-eg.com/azazi-white-stone/
Better start looking for information on the D614G mutation of SARS-COV-2.
Worth read blog I found from this website. I am thankful to an author providing such an informative blog.
Ida, http://www.secureassignmenthelp.com/human-resource-management-assignment-help/
United States hit 2million Covid 19 cases on Jun 10th, 2020.
Today it is 2020/06/24 (2 weeks or 14 days later) and we’re at 2380000
An increase of 380k cases in 2 weeks, or 190k per week.
Of these 190k new cases per week ~ 40k per week are new hospitalizations or 20%.
20% hospitalization rate is very similar to Chinese and European data.
You want to talk about hospitalizations? There it is!
Maybe a lot more cases that 2 million. Which of course would make the hospitalized and death percentages MUCH lower.
25 Jun 2020
CDC says there could be 10 times more U.S. coronavirus cases than reported
And your point … ?
Your argument that the rate is adjusted by the denominator is fascinating (to you, I’m sure), but doesn’t change any of the data TeleAllende posted, nor does it address the crazy-stoopid data you posted earlier. (You remember that, right? The data from NZ or someplace that was touted as US data…).
In addition, it’s rather obvious that there are significant excess deaths to date that are due to the pandemic. The number is significant enough now that it is a measurable event and it can’t be swept under the rug. You can play with the denominator in your rate calculation all you want; that will not change the narrative of what a successful response to the pandemic looks like – hint, it doesn’t look like what the US is doing.
Any dumbass (or liar) who claims that we only have 1500 hospitalizations per week should look at the death rate. Our weekly death rate is likely above that.
Here is an example calculation based on week of 06/13/2020:
Hospitalization rates per 100k of different age groups.
2020/06/13 week:
[0.7+0.2+2.4+4.1+6.2] = 13.6 people hospitalized
per 100k.
Total COVID-NET network is 32 million.
Therefore total new weekly hospitalizations
within the COVID-NET network of 32 million (10% of US population) is:
= 32 million * 13.6 / 100k = 4352 people per 32 million covered by COVID-NET data.
Should we multiply this by 10 to cover the full 100% United States population?
= 43000 ?
Interesting. I actually think there is enough hospital capacity nationwide but the solution is sending overflow patients to other areas where there is more capacity. This virus loves congregation of people in close spaces. The only way to fix that is to lower the population density where hospitalization rates are high.
The above graph from CDC (annotated by me)
shows weekly hospitalizations, but it is not clear to me whether these are “current this week” or “new this week” hospitalizations.
For example – people who who were hospitalized the week before the current week and are still in the hospital – are they included or excluded from the graph? I think they are excluded, and the graph shows “new” hospitalizations.
There are probably less people going to the hospital sick and just living normal life and transmitting the virus. Asymptomatic carriers.
Here is a graph of hospitalizations.
I see nothing resembling an answer to the question raised:
Why the surge in the South?
I can no longer tell the difference between sarcasm and psychosis
It’s in the south because southern governors prioritized trumps interests before the state’s. Simple.
Fl fired their statistician for refusing to play with the numbers.
No information cmoing out of a southern state can be trusted – they have put dear leader above all.
Add to that the fact that ignorant trumpies thought they were annoying the “libruls” when they were killing their grandmas
You can not make this crap up – who would believe it?
Everyone likes charts, yes? Here’s a bunch on the mortality of CV19 to ponder.
Studies on Covid-19 lethality
Published: May 12, 2020; Last updated: June 21, 2020
Do you have a point?
Yes, I do. But it would require that you read all that went before instead of just randomly jumping in with a snarky comment [clap, clap].
Why should he read them when you don’t read them???
You’re becoming annoying. Do you just like to run your fat mouth off?
Bwhahahahaha!
This from the idiot that can’t read and blathers on about how he’s ‘sticking it to the man!’ by not wearing a mask.
United States hit 2million Covid 19 cases on Jun 10th, 2020.
Today it is 2020/06/24 (2 weeks or 14 days later) and we’re at 2380000
An increase of 380k cases in 2 weeks, or 190k per week.
Of these 190k new cases per week ~ 40k per week are new hospitalizations or 20%.
20% hospitalization rate is very similar to Chinese and European data.
You want to talk about hospitalizations? There it is!
Maybe a lot more cases that 2 million. Which of course would make the hospitalized and death percentages MUCH lower.
25 Jun 2020
CDC says there could be 10 times more U.S. coronavirus cases than reported
Shakespeare wrote that “brevity is the soul of wit”. This article tells you everything you need to known in ONLY 2 charts (CV19 positive rate and CV19 currently hospitalized) at the very beginning. Longer isn’t necessarily better as it only serves to obfuscate the subject matter..
Why Facts Don’t Matter to People
Barry Brownstein
– June 24, 2020
Apparently facts don’t even matter to him. He references 2 totally BS charts and says “these charts from the US”. Its good news all around. What a load of crap.
Is there something specific you don’t like about the data or did you just want to rant at something that is above your capability to understand?
science man BAD!
Look at the graphs he uses. Are they from New Zealand?
Where are you getting NZ from?
Where is the author getting the US from? It may be data for some random country but it’s definitely not the US.
Here is another of that idiots articles. He should update it to show that US cases started to drop after stay at home orders issued, and started to rise after they lifted them.
Articles represent the data at the time they were written. They are not generally updated unless they are interactive, real-time representations.
That first chart looks wildly wrong. It shows positive tests maxing out at around 10K per day in mid-April, but we’re still routinely around 30K. Did he grab data from the wrong country? If he did, that’s unforgivably sloppy.
The data is aggregated by the website. It’s not the easiest site to use, for sure. I don’t know the answer one way or another w/o a lot of digging. The data seems to come from the USA per how they present it.
If you want to pose the question to the author, click on his name at the top of the article and you will get contact info.
No thanks, I’m not contacting the author from some obscure think tank article you posted.
Do us a favor and at least glance at the charts yourself before posting them here. It took all of a second or two to see something was off with this one, and you really should have spotted it before wasting our time.
I don’t see what you claim you are seeing. If you don’t want to elaborate and don’t want to reach out to the original author, then all I can say is thanks for sharing.
As with anything posted online and that includes from Mish, one assumes that the author has done their work correctly and accurately. Mistakes do happen occasional, as they happen to all of us.
Oh and as to obscure, the company has existed sine 1933. It is only obscure to you because you apparently do not have the curiosity to broaden your apparently limited reading sources.
They’re about to become a lot more obscure if that’s the quality of work they’re putting out! Maybe they can stay afloat with Fed money too?
Just admit you didn’t check the data before trumpeting it here and move on. I’m doubtful they made a mistake THAT boneheaded, it seems an intentional attempt to mislead.
Of course, I don’t check the data before posting anything. I read the article and make the assumption that the author has done the research and aggregated the necessary data to make their case. That is not unreasonable.
If you think something is wrong with the presentation, then you are free to reach out to the author (I pointed out where the contact info was) and perhaps he might agree, review and revise. Or he might just ignore you if he thought you were off your rocker. You won’t know if you don’t try.
No, that’s not how this works. If you’re going to point to charts to bolster your point, look at them first. If they’re obviously wrong like this one was, anyone is free to call you out on it. Don’t be lazy!
How would you like it if I argued with you and kept pointing to nonsensical data to “prove” you’re wrong?
Just take a few minutes to show what is wrong for everyone’s edification. I don’t see what you are talking about.
I already did in my first post on this thread. Seriously, could you be any lazier?
Are you retarded or what? Unable to read? Failed literacy test in 4th grade?
Total BS data. Second chart says US has 1500 hospitalizations around 06/21 country wide. What kind of BS is this?
Total BS data. Second chart says US has 1500 hospitalizations around 06/21 country wide. What kind of BS is this?
United States hit 2million Covid 19 cases on Jun 10th, 2020.
Today it is 2020/06/24 (2 weeks or 14 days later) and we’re at 2380000
An increase of 380k cases in 2 weeks, or 190k per week.
Of these 190k new cases per week ~ 40k per week are new hospitalizations or 20%.
20% hospitalization rate is very similar to Chinese and European data.
You want to talk about hospitalizations? There it is!
I demonstrate the numbers for you using CDC data from my other posts. You can find them elsewhere today on Mish.
Depends on where you get YOUR numbers from, no?
Will Covid-19 save the Social Security Fund?
Maybe the source was not the Chinese! Maybe it was CALPERS!
Im watching hospital numbers along with icu for my county in ca. Just 1 rt now think its been 2 total. Test numbers seem to going up. Im about to go take one to be able to go to work. .
Sounds like El Dorado County
Inevitably the Trump apologists have to chime in with their absurd theories and tortured explanations. Even Governor Abbott of Texas is basically begging people to wear masks and distance but the Trump zombies refuse to allow him to make it mandatory.
Don’t forget the church. Perhaps I have the wrong impression but aren’t people in the south more religious?
And I bet people are praying to their gods to protect them and that has had as much success as praying away tornadoes, hurricanes, floods and so forth.
Florida–number of tests down, percent of positive tests up
Mish on reality #1 I live and work in California. Last Friday evening when I left work drove by a popular fairly new brewery just down the street from my job. Entire parking lot full, and overflow parking on the street. There might have been a few less cars than a Friday evening pre-pandemic. In other words that brewery was full of people, eating, drinking, no masks. California perception is social distancing, reality not so much….
Thanks
I talked to Calculated Risk about this yesterday. Distancing varies in extreme amounts city-to-city in CA – perhaps everywhere.
They are supposed to be at I believe 50% capacity. I did not go in and look but based on Car volume they had almost a full house. In the county that I live they have put out recommendations and immediately said they would not be doing any enforcement. No enforcement = little compliance.
We’re free souls here in CA.
YAY, Covid 120,000+, Covidiots 0
Here’s a comic that fits you exactly:
How To Identify Good Ideas
One answer is–air conditioning.
Outdoor transmission is more difficult than indoor.
And while people in FL, TX, AZ, CA talk a big “outdoorsy” game, they head indoors to the AC when it is hot out. Whereas us pasty-faced northerners head outdoors when the cold goes away.
Another answer is–higher poverty rates and greater sharing rates of housing, poor education, poorer health, less access to heath-care, greater belief in the “wisdom” of churches and politicians.
I don’t think you can put CA in with Texas, Florida and Arizona when it comes to what it’s like outdoors in summer. I see more people outdoors in CA this year for sure. If I were to take a stab at it I would say restaurants are the primary culprit of spread.
The big population centers in CA are mostly coastal, where temps are pleasant. San Francisco is an extreme case, and virtually never get hot.
The sheer lack of space, people living like ants on top of each other, and third world quality of housing and ventilation; mandated at gunpoint to keep the zero-talent free shit army flush with usury rent in exchange for nothing useful whatsoever, sure as heck isn’t making contagion suppression any easier, in third world ghettos like ours.
Ans to Mish Query: Water
Americans have a very short attention span. Most are tired of dealing with the virus so they have stopped practicing preventive measures. That is all the virus needs to begin to spread. To be honest, Americans are not big on responsibility or self sacrifice. We are mostly a culture which believes the rules only apply to others and not to us, and we are simply unwilling to do what is required to keep this virus under control so we will end up dealing with the consequences….
How come they never report hospitalizations. That is the key metric. An overwhelming number of deaths come from that group. In most cases the sick person goes home and goes to bed.
Because the hospitalization numbers are too low to fit into the narrative that the government and media want to drive.
Yes!!
Please shove your illiterate opinion back up the hole it came from. Thank you for obliging. In the US we’re hospitalizing at a rate of 50k per week
What are you talking about.
We’re at 43000+ new hospitalizations per week using CDC data.
You can find my posts elsewhere on Mish , posted today with CDC data and graphs.
Here is some very high level data, again refer to my other posts for full details
United States hit 2million Covid 19 cases on Jun 10th, 2020.
Today it is 2020/06/24 (2 weeks or 14 days later) and we’re at 2380000
An increase of 380k cases in 2 weeks, or 190k per week.
Of these 190k new cases per week ~ 40k per week are new hospitalizations or 20%.
20% hospitalization rate is very similar to Chinese and European data.
You want to talk about hospitalizations? There it is!
The data missing from those graphs is mask usage. Who cares about mobility? Driving around won’t give you Covid. What matters is the amount of time people spend in close contact with other people without masks.
Exactly. The place I can think of where masks arent worn by patrons indoors are restaurants.
It’s kind of hard to eat and drink with a mask on!
If you are bored with nondescript masks, here is a more custom assortment:
As for the kids, in Washington State, the under 40 group is 43% of the cases, and 1% of the deaths. The kids are not at risk. Send them to school.
The over 80 group is 7% of the cases, and 51% of the deaths. There is where to concentrate isolation efforts, although whether someone in their 80s wants to live out the rest of their life in isolation is an open question.
Also odd in WA, Blacks are 4% of the population, and 3% of the deaths, so they are not over-represented as reported elsewhere.
If you look at the model that Mish presented you will notice that things start blowing up in Aug-Sept, just happens to be right after all the kiddies go back to school. It will be a massive vector pool, the people that study this kind of thing know this, and that is why it is on the graph.
Of course cases will rise. People are out more and also there is more availability of tests. Wear a mask and take your vitamins. Eventually everyone will get covid-19 either by vaccine of some sort or naturally. The problem is there is now data showing the antibodies only stay in your system for 3-4 months. This is going to be more like the flu without a vaccine for awhile. Normal life may not resume unless we get a scientific miracle – a vaccine for a cold virus.
I haven’t seen any mention of the alleged serious continuing health issues that are reported to have occurred in some young people who have recovered. I have no idea how many of those reports are real.
It would be useful if statistics on these were published to give the public some idea of the frequency and severity of long range effects. So a twenty-something who thinks he can get it and get over it will think twice about the risk of a life with permanent lung damage.
(But sadly that possibility doesn’t seem to keep people from using combustible tobacco.)
The corona virus doesn’t leave behind rashes and scars, like some historically known diseases did. If that was the case, it would turn around the pandemic on a dime. Lung damage, who cares, party like it’s the nineties.
Out of their sight … Out of their mind … ;>)
It’s not just lung damage, by the way. Kidney failures, liver damage, heart damage, strokes are all factors. The question is, can the body continue to heal itself, or will these changes be permanent?
What people just do not seem to get is that this virus is not a run of the mill respiratory disease, it is more of a circulatory disease. It gets into the blood stream and then attacks organs. It will take several years to know the true impact of this virus on internal organs. In the more severe cases, which require hospitalization we know we have seen severe damage some causing death, but in some of the more minor cases we may not be aware of any damage until abnormalities begin to show up on routine blood tests. It will take years to compile enough information to begin to link specific organ damage data to the virus. The virus can cause things like heart attack and strokes and even brain and spinal cord damage which may not be immediately linked to the virus, but will be later when it is better understood.
I’ve seen no published data on this, though the MSM dig up isolated horror stories to keep scaring the shit out of us. Liars and damn lairs.
Here’s something:
What doctors know about lingering symptoms of coronavirus
June 24, 2020 8.19am EDT
Author William Petri – Professor of Medicine, University of Virginia
I see you claim that it has nothing to do with testing because (I assume) that Nate Silver also says that deaths are on the rise. However, in Georgia at least, we are watching a downward trend in deaths as shown by the chart on the AJC Coronavirus Dashboard:
There is a slight uptick recently due to no one reporting anything on the weekend, but the overall trend itself appears flat – even during the lockdown.
Furthermore as a resident who lives and works in the Atlanta suburbs, I can tell you that in the past 10 days or so, I’ve seen numerous “drive through” testing centers where there were none before, and each has long lines of cars waiting to be tested. In fact, yesterday I was at Best Buy and the center in that parking lot probably had 50 to 75 cars in line. They are even using cones, signs, and people to create a virtual “rope line” queue to enable more cars to fit in the smaller area.
I assume these are the “instant” or “five minute” or whatever tests, which means they get the results on the spot. It also means the results can be reported on a near-daily basis. This increased testing is naturally going to result in more positive test results.
I have no idea what the accuracy rating of the tests are, but if they are as bad as some say, how many of the new “positive tests” – which is what is meant when the term “reported cases” is used – are in fact false positives?
If we are going to call a place a “hotspot” it would seem to me that a better judge of that would be something other than “new cases” which really means “new positive tests”.
I would suggest you check the charts for “Current hospital cases by day in Georgia” and “Transmission estimates in Georgia” in your own link … both are not encouraging.
Current hospital cases is 1056 as of yesterday, an increase of 200 since the first of June, but a decrease of over 400 since the first of May. The trend may be on the upswing for the past 10 days, but overall, it’s still down.
As far as transmission rates go, that number has fluctuated up and down constantly in the same general upper and lower bounds since April 12.
If over the next 14 days, both of these continue to climb, then perhaps it would be something worth considering.
The 7-day moving average on both charts is on the rise …
Yes, and it is just as likely that in seven days time it will be on the down-slope. Who knows?
If there is one thing that we should take away from this entire debacle, it’s that the future is never certain and computer models – or any “projections” for that matter – are no better than reading tea leaves in many cases.
RE: “the future is never certain”
“The future’s uncertain and the end is always near” — The Doors/Jim Morrison
True, but some things are less uncertain than others.
RE: “no better than reading tea leaves in many cases.”
And yet I doubt that many here depend on what they might find in tea leaves or horoscopes or dice rolls for making decisions, rather than trying to gather as much data as possible and analyzing it competently and honestly.
But one thing I always warn about … that statistics derived for a population are not applicable to each and every member of that population … that a population that has a .1% death rate from a disease does not mean that each and every member of the population have a 99.9% chance of surviving.
“Did you hear about the person who was immensely surprised to be drowning in a lake which a statistician had calculated to have an average depth of 6 inches?”
“Did you hear about the person who was immensely surprised to be dying from a disease which had a 99.9% survival rate?”
You can compile mountains of data, and analyze it all until you’re blue in the face, and make a neat little plan to ensure that you lead your life with an absolute minimal exposure to risk… And still get hit by a truck getting the mail out of your mailbox.
At the end of the day, the number one cause of death the world over is, and always will be: Being alive.
If all you’re worried about is dying, you’re going to have a miserable time living.
Right … but what I wrote also means that whatever the fatality rate F% is for the 70 and older population does not mean that every individual in that population has that F% chance of dying or, conversely, 1-F% chance of surviving. The statistic only applies to the population, not to each individual in the population.
I understand what you meant.
Lots of people think will never happen to them. And when it does, they are surprised.
I’m sure the person hit by a truck at his mailbox was surprised as well.
In this case, with this virus, the younger you are and the fewer co-morbidities you have, the greater your chances are of survival. That is true for a great many things – not just this particular virus.
However, I have no idea what bearing any of that has on the primary argument I was making regarding the reality that more testing will naturally lead to more positive test results, which will naturally lead to everyone saying there are more “cases.” Or even the secondary arguments regarding the death and hospitalization rates in GA being relatively flat, or the likelihood of an effective vaccine ever being developed.
Yes, more testing will almost certainly lead to discovery of more “cases” than would be discovered by just waiting for people to become sick enough to go to the doctor or hospital and end up testing positive. Of course you want a highly sensitive and specific test to avoid (nearly) all the false negatives and positives, so you don’t have to worry about how they all balance out, or not.
But although I understand why a sole focus on “more cases” is bound to be misleading, I would think that somebody besides me would realize that the way to decrease the case fatality rate is to find as many “cases” as possible, so that all those “cases” that otherwise would never be known about would enable those people who like to minimize COVID-19 as “just the flu” can calculate as low a rate as possible.
I don’t know all the official definitions … but for my money the simple presence of a virus in a person should never count as a “case” unless they actually develop some symptoms that can be ascribed to the virus. Nobody should ever be counted as “infected” unless they show symptoms of “infection”. I think going by the mere presence of a virus or a bacteria in a person’s body would have every single one of us “infected” by many different pathogens every day of our lives.
But I don’t get to define the official terms …
You and I sound a lot alike. I am the type who does his best to analyze as many data points from as many sources as possible in an attempt to reach my own conclusions rather than having them spoon-fed to me by someone.
Everything you outlined is why I feel like the best course for any government to take is to simply supply people with valid information as best they can, and make recommendations on what they consider the best course of action.
Every decision every individual makes every moment of their lives is a value proposition: I know the risks of doing A, but doing A makes me happy, and therefore, I am willing to accept the risks. Some will always research the risks more than others, and no two people will quantify any single risk to themselves in exactly the same way. Therefore, trying to force people into little boxes is always going to fail.
Not to mention, when government tries too hard to set things like “age boundaries,” they find themselves in the unenviable position of being held accountable for that if mistakes are made that harm people – as they should be. See: Wear a mask – it’s good, don’t wear a mask – they don’t work or will hurt you, wear a mask – it saves others…etc…
“I don’t know all the official definitions … but for my money the simple presence of a virus in a person should never count as a “case” unless they actually develop some symptoms that can be ascribed to the virus. Nobody should ever be counted as “infected” unless they show symptoms of “infection”. I think going by the mere presence of a virus or a bacteria in a person’s body would have every single one of us “infected” by many different pathogens every day of our lives.”
I can’t agree with this paragraph strongly enough. I would guess that at any given moment nearly everyone is walking around with some sort of infection in their system. Unbeknownst to them, their body is quietly dealing with the situation, they are blissfully unaware and – thankfully – not beating down the door of their local urgent care trying to get meds. If it gets out of control, their body begins to send signals that things are going poorly – in the form of symptoms like pain, fever, inflammation…etc. At that point, they need to seek medical care.
Unfortunately, neither of us gets to define the official terms.
Also in this case – again due to conflicting data from science and government – there is no clear yes/no answer on whether or not someone without symptoms is, in fact, shedding the virus.
This whole thing went from SNAFU to TARFU to FUBAR in record time.
Agreed on all points … but that doesn’t mean it is wise to ignore all data and analyses and make no plans whether informed by the analyses or not.
I am pretty sure that most everyone here agrees that it is wise for people who are older to exercise more caution that the younger. Although the younger should exercise caution if they are going to come in contact with the older.
And how do you pick those age boundaries? And how do you decide what “more caution” should look like? In what circumstances?
You do your best to look at lots of data and analyze it and come up with your plans.
You don’t just “wing it” or roll dice or flip coins or throw darts …
The argument you are making makes perfect sense from the standpoint that no person is 100% in control of their own life … not even close. So don’t go all OCD in trying to control every single second and aspect of your life. But that doesn’t mean that you don’t try to make rational choices/decisions based on the best available information and analyses.
Perhaps there are some people who are so unthinking, so irrational, so driven solely by animal instincts that every one of their daily actions is completely a “random” event in the sense that they never allow a rational thought to swirl around in their brain … I just have a difficult time conceiving of such a person … I don’t think I would even call them a “person”.
Correct. The fatality rate for the over 70 year olds is way higher than for 20-50 year olds, for example.
There are many assumptions going on in these observations you mention. For example, why are people lining up 50 to 75 cars deep for a test? I would not consider that unless I was either sick and suspected I had COVID or unless I knew I had been directly exposed to someone with COVID and I could not afford to self-quarantine for 14 days. Those people are lining up to get tested for a reason.
I can only speak from my own experience as I have no desire to stand in those lines and poll everyone.
I am going to be traveling to a country in August that will require me to be tested within 48 hours prior to arrival or face a quarantine when I get there. This means I will be getting tested regardless of whether or not I feel sick.
Also, my job puts me in contact with a lot of people from all over the city and I personally know many who have been tested (and had their children tested) without being symptomatic or showing any signs of sickness.
One reason for this is that they have been repeatedly told that as an “asymptomatic carrier” they could be a danger to their loved ones which drives many people to a “better safe than sorry” mentality. Couple that with the fact that the test is free, and it becomes an easy choice for many.
Given my limited knowledge of this, I still feel its safe to assume that lots of people out there may choose to get tested even if they have no symptoms.
“…which drives many people to a ‘better safe than sorry’ mentality. Couple that with the fact that the test is free…”
Sadly, this is another glaring example of terrible government management of the problem. Needless testing is a waste of resources and it is definitely not “free,” except in the sense that the cost is hidden from those receiving the test. The way things are going, the government will start running adds that people who are healthy should get tested just in case and people who are sick should self-isolate without getting tested just in case. If people follow that recommendation, it will also make the ratio of positive to negative tests look good, so it would be a win for everyone!
Ugh.
“There are many assumptions going on in these observations you mention. For example, why are people lining up 50 to 75 cars deep for a test? I would not consider that unless I was either sick and suspected I had COVID or unless I knew I had been directly exposed to someone with COVID and I could not afford to self-quarantine for 14 days. Those people are lining up to get tested for a reason.”
They are driven by media fanned fear which is metastasizing in their puny brains, just as it is doing with some number of posters here.
Deaths are a three week lagging indicator. So wait, the time will come.
Maybe it will, maybe it won’t. No one will know until three weeks have passed…
I’m not arguing about whether or not the virus is real or dangerous. It is definitely real and if you’re in a high-risk group, it is most assuredly dangerous.
I am merely pointing out that claiming that the increase in “new cases” isn’t related to more testing may not be true for my locale – which was one of the places specifically mentioned.
I am also arguing that using “new cases” to gauge whether or not some place is a “hotspot” may not be the best method.
I agree with you, in the sense that the data and possibility of error in it makes it unreliable. The only things I know for sure are what increases the level of transmission, and what reduces it. It is a simple approach, one which each person has to adapt with as best they are able to, including dependant on how others are choosing or not choosing to. The interruption though is the virus, the rest is personal approach to the collective, a collective that a person might have a lot of opinion on but in reality little say over.
RE: “the best course for any government to take is to simply supply people with valid information as best they can, and make recommendations on what they consider the best course of action.”
IMO that can work for a lot of people but the sticking point in that approach is found in “I know the risks of doing A, but doing A makes me happy, and therefore, I am willing to accept the risks.”
“but doing A makes me happy”
but doing A makes ME happy”
Too many people don’t factor in the effects of their decisions on OTHERS and/or couldn’t care less about how their decisions affect OTHERS.
They’re the ones who will drive drunk on occasion no matter what … will text while driving no matter what … because they couldn’t care less about the possible effects on OTHERS so long as “it makes ME happy”
Many people have said things similar to the following:
“Freedom does not mean that right to do whatever we please, but rather to do as we ought. The right to do whatever we please reduces freedom to a physical power and forgets that freedom is a moral power.”
— Fulton J. Sheen
But try telling far too many highly individualistic Americans that they are part of a community and the above statement is speaking to them and they’ll immediately start screaming “Socialism! Get outta my face! I can do whatever I please!”
I agree that TPTB have in many cases failed miserably during COVID-19 … but I also believe that the “I’ll do whatever I please!” nature of too many Americans is behind a lot of the failure as well.
One positive note is that I no longer seem to hear the COVIDiots on this site touting their “herd immunity” stupidity.
Sweden and its COVIDiot “champions” kept blathering about “herd immunity”. But Sweden should have finally realized that it is a pipe dream, with just 7% of people in Stockholm having developed COVID antibodies by end of April, and more and more researchers realizing that antibodies don’t seem to be effective for more than a few months.
And yet the idiotic Swedish government demanding that ALL children, regardless of any health issues for them or family members, MUST return to school or face possible “last resort” removal from their family by social services. Are the Swedish COVIDidiots still trying to achieve their pipe dram of “herd immunity”?!
Or is Sweden just doing its “best” to overtake Italy in the COVID deaths per capita sweepstakes. GOOOOOOO SWEDEN! It’s a long way to go to overtake Belgium for the TOP SPOT among countries with more than 100K population but Sweden seems pretty determined ….
Herd immunity is the only effective long-term protection against any virus that affects humans.
You can achieve it either by people a) getting the virus and their body fighting it off and logging it so it knows how to fight it in the future, or b) vaccinating a large enough percentage of the population.
Either of these options produce the same result: The ease with which the virus is able to find new hosts is reduced to a point where it may not die out, but it becomes more of a nuisance than a risk.
Therefore, regardless of how you get there, herd immunity is the goal, not “stupidity.”
One can debate the merits of choosing to lock down a population, or let them take their chances with allowing a given virus to propagate; and one can even debate the merits of whether or not a vaccine for any given virus is likely or even possible given the science. One can debate many things, but the overarching goal of herd immunity remains as the only effective long-term protection humans have when it comes to viruses.
RE: “Therefore, regardless of how you get there, herd immunity is the goal, not “stupidity.”
I think most people here understand the herd immunity concept … no “lesson” required … but the point is that HOW you get there matters!
The stupidity was in Sweden’s attempt to rapidly achieve herd immunity by being very lax in their measures to control the spread from the beginning … and continuing with that approach when it proved lacking.
The stupidity was in the assumption that herd immunity for a new virus about which very little was known could be achieved by anything other than a vaccine. You must err on the side of caution, not on the side of wishful thinking.
And as many have pointed out, even achieving “herd immunity” to SARS-COV-2 by vaccine is anything but a given at this point.
So, what is your solution? Stay separated from loved one and all social activities forever? Solve it for us.
So where are they at with HIV or ebola wrt ?
I have said since the beginning of this event – and even repeated it yesterday: Science is not on the side of a vaccine for this. The number of effective vaccines is dwarfed by the number of viruses in existence that are harmful to humans.
As coronaviruses go, there has never been an effective vaccine for one. Never. Not ever. Not for a lack of trying though. Billions upon billions of dollars and man-hours were devoted to finding a vaccine for the common cold. If that research still continues (I don’t know but maybe someone is grinding their gears on it), we are still no closer than we were when we started. No cure, no vaccine. And it isn’t as if the incentive isn’t there – even today someone who discovered the vaccine would stand to make billions of dollars on it.
Clearly, the science doesn’t bode well. Because of this, we would all be better off if we acted as if a vaccine was never coming and planned accordingly for how we will reach herd immunity without it. In the meantime, if by some miracle they do produce one – then we can cheer the fact that they beat the odds.
Having said that, given the history of failed vaccines, I’m not taking one developed in less than two years until it’s been thoroughly tested over a few years on those who do decide to take it. I’d rather take my chances with the actual virus.
” demanding that ALL children, regardless of any health issues for them or family members, MUST return to school or face possible “last resort” removal from their family by social services “
The SS are suicidal, but no one wants it on their conscience to help them out. When it comes to an obvious example where taking the life of a child is in question, some might overcome that moral dilemna. I don’t know about Sweden, but in some other countries in Europe the SS work as traffickers, and when not are dedicated to social manipulation as a means to an end, usually pay and self verification . They are sick, should be “eliminated” in my opinion.
Life must go on. Call it herd immunity or whatever. Theres no vaccine coming anytime soon. So like humans have always done we move forward with the knowledge we have and do the best we can to survive another day.
So what about antivirals, that is what kept the AIDS epidemic under control? There are hundreds of research labs working on them.
Under control is relative, it is not immunity, hence “immuno-compromised”. In south africa 20%, 7 million people, carry HIV. If it were 100% it would not be “better”.
What about them? sounds like you feel they’re an answer…maybe. in this particular situation a mask, social distancing and common sense/personal hygiene are your best options.
I’d argue that knowledge and condoms have kept the aids virus “under control” where there is little of those 2 things there is a greater occurrence it seems. I’m no expert though.
“There are hundreds of research labs working on them”
And they still haven’t found a vaccine after decades of research and 10’s of billions of dollars. I’d expect a similar result from this. Its a money pit.
So you don’t know the difference between an anti-viral and a vaccine?
I think I’ve disseminated how I see it clearly, but if your unsure …Lance…I think you’re an anti viral! /s
All of what seem to me to be the sensible components of a solution has already been presented a vast number of times in a vast number of places. Frequent hand-washing … avoiding face touching … social distancing … mask-wearing … avoiding large tightly packed crowds anywhere but especially in enclosed areas … special precautions for higher-risk individuals due to age, co-morbidities, … correcting vitamin D deficiency … and on and on …
You know all the common sense components as well as I do …
Duration is always the sticking point … most people, except for the genuine COVIDiots, are fine with precautions for weeks, maybe a couple months … but most everyone gets “COVID exhaustion” after a while … gets tired of it all … just want things to “go back to normal” (forget all the surrounding issues that make “normal” highly abnormal).
Other areas have shown that when people take the situation seriously and care enough about negative consequences to themselves and/or OTHERS of “winging it” to do the simplest things to ameliorate those consequences, that it can be far more successful than an area full of “rugged individualists” who “aren’t gonna a let a virus change my lifestyle!” and “to hell with everybody else!”
The most basic truth is that there IS NO ONE_SIZE-FITS_ALL SOLUTION. People across the country are making their choices every day. Just like they’ve always done with alcohol and drugs and tobacco and driving drunk and a thousand other “risky” behaviors. Some are fortunate to have jobs that can continue to be WFH … others don’t … Some people can’t be happy unless they’re with a crowd … others are fine with family and close friends who are like-minded in their concerns … My wife and I have visited with family and neighbors and close friends via zoom and houseparty and in-person with some distance when possible and masks when not … it took a while to adjust, but that’s what we’ve done.
It’s apparent that others in other areas have chosen to throw caution to the wind and “get back to normal” … long before the situation was willing to let them do that. The negative consequences are following … you make your choices and you take what comes …
“Herd immunity” is a vaccination concept, the number required to essentially eradicate a pathogen. You are still assuming that 100% of the population is susceptible, but it never is. Not everybody contracts Ebola or the plague. The population is never 100% homogenously susceptible.
Studies are now showing that only about 1 in 7 people generate antibodies, which are short-lived on top. The 7% seroconversion does not at all show that the other 93% will become sick on exposure. There are now scientific papers theorizing that 60-80% are not part of the pool, some based on modeling the transmission decay, some based on antibody production in unexposed blood.
It is more important to focus on the hospitalizations than deaths (or even total positive tests). In at least some areas of AZ nearly 60% of those hospitalized are under 65. That they are less likely to die doesn’t help with the original problem of overwhelming the medical system to the point where it is all covid all the time.
People also forget that those who are hospitalized and released can still have significant health issues weeks and months later. Only time will tell to what extent the damages are permanent.
The President won’t wear a mask.
The Vice President does the same.
And even the vaunted Fauci does not wear a mask when speaking to Congress.
That’s all. We are rapidly heading to failed state status.
“some animals are more equal than others”
Fauci not wearing one makes me think the virus is a hoax.
Fauci is probably tested daily, and is pretty sure he doesn’t have it.
It’s difficult to speak the entire day through a mask, that’s why for testimony on Capitol Hill they are tested and take masks off.
“Surge Explanation: What’s Going On?”
…
Possible mutation.
I read an article about a salon that had a mandatory mask policy and 1 of the stylist tested positive. Because the salon kept great records they were able to contact all the patrons, something like 164. None of the patrons got sick, not everyone was tested but the lesson is masks work.
If everyone wears a mask, does the social distancing and uses common sense this could easily be controlled.
That was in Springfield, Missouri, and there were actually two stylists that were sick. Both wore masks, and all customers wore masks. As you said, not one customer was infected.
The government imposed lockdowns were supposedly to give health agencies and hospitals more time to implement better contact tracing and improved treatment capability to save lives. This was widely known, but for the insistence of President Trump and a few others that the virus was somehow going to disappear on its own. It was suggested before the lockdowns ended that US testing had expanded to the point where US contact tracing would be practical and outbreaks could be contained. We now have irrefutable evidence this was not correctly executed.
Also, many people do not believe wearing a mask is helpful because the government so strongly sabotaged their own credibility on that message. (To those who think President Trump is solely responsible for this, please recall that Fauci recently admitted the CDC initially lied to the public about masks to cover up a critical shortage that was interfering with health care workers obtaining PPE). I went to a supply house the other day and nobody working there was wearing a mask. I was laughed at for the mask I was wearing, even though in my state masks are “required” for all public areas.
Given all that, it would be a great surprise if US case numbers were not jumping higher. If nothing changes, they are going to continue much higher. The only saving grace we have is that most people can get through this on their own without medical intervention (but possibly they will have long-term adverse health consequences). Big Government in the US has let us down at all levels. Why anyone still puts their faith in it is beyond me. It needs to be pared down to something much smaller and much less expensive.
Not just the US, the narrative from many governments and authorities has been to sow confusion, when where left to themselves people are naturally cautious. Take away the sense of own responsibility and you are left with people who have an excuse. If there is a public argument over masks, people side with a group and feel reassured. However if it reduces to what your neighbour or a shopkeeper or the person sat next to you feels, then you are eye to eye and courtesy is not expensive, even if rarer nowadays sometimes.
Fauci claimed at the end of January that there was nothing to worry about. Then two weeks to flatten the curve, then 4 more weeks, then the New Normal maybe two years to infinity. Spread by droplets, no spread by contact, no spread by aerosol, no spread by droplets. Don’t wear a mask, wear a mask. Is there any wonder that the public has lost all confidence??? There is no telling truth from fiction from any of these pricks. Fauci, of all people should have known better given that our intelligence agencies were bringing back reports in November. I say that he did know better. This isn’t Covid. This along with the orchestrated BLM riots just waiting for the right spark to ignite the flame is coup d’etat. All constitutional freedoms have been suspended and there is NO intention to give them back. I’d be fine to lock down and smash Covid. I’d be fine to let it run its course. The present course has no end. Intentionally.
It’s Time to Bench Fauci
By Adriana Cohen
June 19, 2020
You forgot the second part, the reason why it was important to flatten the curve. It was to prevent hospital systems from being overwhelmed with covid cases.
Thus there is a narrow range between expected and allowable growth in infections as a cost of doing business, and growth that risks overwhelming the hospital systems. If you think that risk is over, you’re wrong, and the lag times involved means you must respond quickly before exponential growth gets out of control.
Texas Medical Center in Houston, one of the biggest in the country, reports 90% base ICU capacity is being utilized. Projected growth could exceed capacity in 2 weeks. They have surge capacity, however, and Texas Children’s Hospital is preparing to admit adults for both covid and non covid reasons.
We could open up all the activities that could be done while wearing masks and be relatively safe, if everyone would wear a mask. Unfortunately, some guy thought it was a good idea to convince his followers that masks weren’t needed and that the virus was a hoax. I wonder who that was…
Please also consider fatality trends. Near reversion to baseline in NJ and NY. This focus on cumulative cases is extremely misleading but agitates the sheeple.
You are right on target! The fatality trend in Texas is down from its peak. Texas DSHS provides a dashboard with a considerable amount of COVID 19 data.
The science is pretty clear on one aspect; High compliance with wearing masks is very effective at preventing the spread. Physical distancing also helps along with quarantining people with positive tests. It’s not rocket science. Japan has managed to have very low infection rate without closing their economy by doing these actions. I’m can’t tell if people are letting their passion for individual rights outweigh their common sense or if the number of just plain stupid people has gone up significantly. As my doctor once said, there’s no cure for stupid.
Science? We don’t need no stinking science! /s
“.. if the number of just plain stupid people has gone up significantly.”
It has.
An essential prerequisite for “saving the system”, which is all the free-shit-army of welfare queens profiting from it, obsess over these days; is that people are rendered stupid enough to believe “The System” has even one single trace of anything whatsoever worth saving in the first place. And falling for something that idiotic, requires stupidity on an entirely unprecedented level.
You are right. Just think of how stupid the average American is, and realize that 49% of the population is more stupid than that.
Corretion 🙂
49% are smarter/dumber than the median. Not the average.
correction. 50% are smarter/dumber than the median.
You can hold your breath and stamp your feet until you turn red but an ever increasing number of us are not going to wear these silly masks.
Go ahead and Darwin yourself, we aren’t going to stop you. I won’t hold my breath or stamp my feet.
Here’s a good plan. In the morning go to a Megachurch, at lunch go to a packed restaurant, at dinner go to a tRump rally, and after that go out to a packed bar. That should do the trick.
YOU are free to live in fear. Just don’t expect ME to embrace your fear.
Some things are worse than death. “Give me liberty or give me death” “Get busy living or get busy dying”
What the science is clear on is that consumer masks are too porous to block a virus. Just because you hear talking heads on the TV screen tell you that something is backed by science doesn’t mean it is true.
No. The data is very, very clear and unambigous. Every country that has mandated masks has seen declining cases. Those that mandated it early stopped the spread soon enough that almost all have deaths under 50/million, one tenth or less of the death rate in the US. In the US, every state that has mandated masks has seen declining cases and declining deaths. The composite of states which have not mandated masks is for cases to be rising, and in many cases to be rising rapidly.
How many times do I have to repeat post here that you can’t prove a negative?
Who’s moving the goal posts now?
According to our stable genius this virus would be gone by summer. Ho2s that working out? What’s the odds that our Federal government has used this breathing space to better prepare for the inevitable second wave?
“What’s the odds that our Federal government has used this breathing space to better prepare for the inevitable second wave?”
Wouldn’t make a lick of difference whether they have or not. They simply lack competence to do anything useful no matter whether they try or not.
It would have if it had been allowed to play out as we do with all other viral illnesses. There is a lesson to be learned in this this if you are willing to to open your closed eyes.
If this had been allowed to run its course, the economy would still be screwed, 10’s of millions more infected, many millions dead. With the added benefit that herd immunity might last 6 months before we start over and do it all again. You are a Covidiot.
The whole plan was to flatten the curve. We did that and gave hospitals time to get ready.
The goal never was to stop the virus. How did the goal post move so far so fast?
The curve isn’t flattened.
The curve in the US for new cases was flat to down from mid-April to mid-June (according to the Worldmeter 7-day moving average), but it has spiked in the last week and a half. Unfortunately, given the aversion of so many Americans to even the most basic safety precautions, the spike is likely to continue.
Yup, screw the media driven fear and government forced economic shutdowns. We are going to create herd immunity in everyone or die trying. Life is too short to hide in a corner.
There’s a balance between hiding in a corner and taking reasonable precautions to slow the spread of Covid. I generally don’t like extremes and aim for something in the middle.
See South Korea, or the EU for that matter. People can go back to routines because the curve has been crushed.
They are just behind us. Give it time and they will be in exactly the same boat. There is no stopping this thing.
It never changed.
It’s only gone flat in a few areas and as they reopen they are going slow so as to keep the curve “low enough” for hospitals.
That’s always been the point.
It’s never changed here.
People just don’t want to believe it’s real because it’s uncomfortable.
Why are we reporting rising infections like it is unanticipated? We were told shutting down was an attempt to “flatten the curve”. It wasn’t sold as a method of preventing sickness indefinitely. Yet now that is the narrative, as if people can stay holed up and business closed forever. People have to leave isolation, earn a living, and live life. Wash your hands, use common sense, rest and let your immune system fight when you eventually get sick.
I’m interested in seeing mentions you have encountered proclaiming “people can stay holed up and businesses closed forever.” It would be great to see these claims being made. I’ve seen countless claims that these claims are being made, but never seen the source quotes. Can you help with this?
You might read up on the correlation between a rise in cases and a rise in positive test rates, hospitalizations, and other correlations and the scientific and practical reasons why those trends are problems when they all converge.
You’re kidding, right? And while you may parse “forever” vs “indefinitely”, his central point about the narrative shifting away from “flatten the curve” is blindingly obvious if you read any news at all. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/why-lockdowns-work-epidemics-coronavirus-covid19/
You forgot masks, we have found them important for preventing people from spreading the virus when they are sick. You can also do test and trace to allow people to be more confident about leaving the house, here is a site that shows the current state in the US https://testandtrace.com/state-data/