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Debt, Inflation, and Populism Renewed Inflation and Is Killing the Bond Market

The Fed will not be cutting rates any time soon.

Dangerous Brew of Inflation

Greg Ip at the Wall Street Journal comments on The Dangerous Brew That’s Rattling Bond Markets

The question for bond markets isn’t why yields rose so much in the past week, but why this didn’t happen sooner.

Government borrowing—everywhere, and especially in the U.S.—has been out of control for years. Inflation in the U.S. has been stuck above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target since 2022. Add in heavy corporate borrowing to fund the AI build-out, and you wonder why long-term interest rates aren’t higher.

To be sure, the selloff (when bond yields go up, their prices go down) has been mild in the scheme of things. The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high of 5.18% Tuesday. Yet the more closely watched 10-year yield, at 4.67%, was lower than in October 2023. Both dropped back Wednesday on hopes oil will resume flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The story of debt

Before 2020, elected leaders usually preached the virtues of austerity even if they didn’t practice it much. Since then, they have responded to almost every shock by borrowing more.

President Joe Biden’s 2021 stimulus was followed by President Trump’s 2025 tax cuts. His administration projects the budget deficit rising 16% this fiscal year to $2.1 trillion. Trump has requested a record $1.5 trillion for the Pentagon for next year. That is a lot of debt for investors to absorb.

From 2023 through 2026, U.S. deficits will have averaged 6.2% of gross domestic product, unprecedented outside war, recessions or emergencies. That’s up from the 4.8% average from 2010 to 2019, and 2.3% from 2002 to 2007.

In the U.S., Trump has proposed suspending the federal gasoline tax, which would cost $3.5 billion a month according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Inflationary ‘one-offs’ keep coming

Until 2020, big economic shocks tended to push inflation lower: China’s entry into the World Trade Organization, the U.S. mortgage crisis, the euro crisis, the shale oil revolution, the initial wave of Covid-19.

Since then, shocks have tended to push inflation higher: the supply-chain disruptions following Covid, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Trump’s tariffs, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

We think of these as “one-off” events after which inflation will naturally return to 2%.

But what if they are symptoms of a world more prone to supply shocks because of war, geopolitical rivalry, protectionism, populism and extreme weather? As the shocks accumulate, the public may expect higher inflation indefinitely.

Kevin Warsh, to be sworn in as Fed chair Friday, thought he could cut rates as AI boosted productivity and cut costs. And he might yet. One supportive sign: There is no cost pressure coming from the labor market.

Slight Disagreement With Greg Ip

Until that last paragraph I had no disagreement with Ip. That last paragraph above added two.

First, Warsh only has one vote. He is not the Fed. So Warsh cannot by himself cut rates.

Second, while anything might happen, the odds are it won’t. The futures market is gearing up for hikes and correctly so,

If Warsh votes to cut interest rates in June, he will be the first Fed Chair since the 1930s to dissent.

Fun Fact

Marriner Eccles is the only Federal Reserve Chair in history to ever cast a dissenting vote on monetary policy, opposing three decisions in the late 1930s.

Prepare for Trump Howls

The next FOMC meeting and first with Warsh as Fed chair is in 27 days, June 17.

According to CME Fedwatch there is a 99.5 percent chance the Fed holds pat and a 0.5 percent chance the Fed hikes.

Trump appointed Warsh expecting a rate cut. That ain’t happening.

Warsh will look like a fool if he dissents. Will he? I don’t know. But if he does expect to hear the name Marriner Eccles come up everywhere.

And if Warsh doesn’t dissent, Trump is going to immediately scream (perhaps anyway if Warsh does not deliver what one vote can’t).

Trump’s war on Iran, one of the dumbest wars in history, spiked oil prices and will increase military spending needs. It was the final straw that eventually sent bond yields soaring.

I like Ip’s lead “The question for bond markets isn’t why yields rose so much in the past week, but why this didn’t happen sooner.

Related Posts

May 16, 2026: Lacy Hunt, a Bond Bull for 44 Years, Now Forecasts Higher Inflation

“I did not have this on my bingo card,” quipped John Mauldin.

May 20, 2026: Meta Begins 8,000 Layoffs, Another 6,000 Job Openings Cancelled

The 8,000 job cuts are about or 10% of staff. Meta needs to offset the cost of its AI investments. The implications are sobering.

May 19, 2026: A WSJ Opinion Article Tries to Explain “Why Everything Feels More Expensive”

The WSJ explanation is hugely lacking. Let’s discuss.

Add all of those up. Does it look stagflationary or not?

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96 Comments
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CSH
CSH
7 hours ago

Greg Ip along with all other mainstream commentators misrepresented Warsh’s claims. He said that AI will be deflationary in the long run, but that in the short run, hikes may be necessary. Now we can debate his first claim – at the very least I find it questionable – but I am sick of the misleading BS from the press.

Anyway, as I see it, both the bond market and the Fed have been remarkably docile in the face of the worst inflationary spiral in decades.

Ian
Ian
5 days ago

Hi Mish
As far as your listed causes of inflation goes, you might add the recent deglobilization trend to your list as well as the re-shoring of industry that is now overseas where we benefited price-wise from cheap labor…which lowered the cost of consumables and imports.The downside of course is the loss of labor and income in places like the rust belt—-and the demise of Detroit where large parts of that once vibrant Motor city are being bull-dozed and turned back into farmland. From a guy living north of the border, its sad to see.

Last edited 5 days ago by Ian
spencer
spencer
5 days ago

4.3%
Latest GDPNow Estimate for 2026:Q2

Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago
Reply to  spencer

WINNING!

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
5 days ago

The 60 year cycle is killing the bond market. Interest rates will peak in 2040 +/-1 year. There will be a minor peak within the next 2 years, followed by some consolidation; then WHAM exponential spike!

Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago

Need at least a half point jump in interest rate. Quarter point wishy washy moves won’t cut it.

spencer
spencer
6 days ago

“We may have gone from a saving glut to not enough savings.” — Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO

What we have is dis-savings.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
5 days ago
Reply to  spencer

Prolapsed savings.

todde
todde
6 days ago

I forgot, Ahmadinejad, the Iranian former leader who the NY Times said was going to be installed by the USA has not been seen since he was freed. I thought he had been killed.

not much of a chance for him to be installed as a leader according to them.

was also told as long as Israel is attacking Gaza and Lebanon, there will be no deal.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
5 days ago
Reply to  todde

Israel needs to protect those settlers it’s moving in.

todde
todde
6 days ago

update on Iran:

2nd phone call this week. Children and the sister are headed to north eastern Iran in case bombing starts over the holiday weekend.

2 news agencies are reporting that a deal is in the making between Iran and USA citing off the record sources.

however, the iranian head negotiater in Pakistan tweeted today to expect the war to start soon, so who knows.

to add to the confusion, the is a rumor that this same Iranian negotiater in Pakistan has been arrested by the IRGC, so who knows.

It’s the Mideast, Jake.

Shelves are full in Tehran but very, very expensive.

Medical and the necessities also available, but expensive.

Iranian’s news are reporting KSA and Iraq are.talking about making a deal with Iran to open the strait. UAE wants war.

Bahrain is still laundering money for Iran, but at a smaller scale.

Grandma is sick and most of the family decided to stay with her. the dont live in Northern Tehran, so they believe they will be safe.

Webej
Webej
5 days ago
Reply to  todde

Israel wants war, America says it’s trying to hold back.

Same setup last couple of times when America decided to commit perfidy and do the only thing it knows how (in the absence of thinking): Bomb and hope for the best.

Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago
Reply to  Webej

Israel just wants to live in peace and not be attacked by Iranian proxies on a continuing basis. Remember that Hamas fired over 20k rockets into Israel territory between 2006, when they took power in Gaza, until Oct 2023. Hezbollah continued to fire rockets into northern Israel, requiring the removal of a large segment of the population living in Northern Israel.

The only way they see peace and stability being achieved is to cut the head off the snake (the Iranian Regime). Israel will keep attempting to neutralize the iranian Regime with or without the participation of the USA.

Annavajjhala
Annavajjhala
5 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

Not without US money in the form of weapons aid that Israel does not pay for.

Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago
Reply to  Annavajjhala

Israel has a $600+ BILLION GDP! All form a country of just 10 million people including children.

Point of fact, Israel only gets $3.2 billion from the US annually and that MUST be funneled back into arms purchases from our MIC. You should consider this amount a kickback from the IS politicians to the MIC.

And compare that measly amount against the hundreds of billions of US$$ that Ukraine has been given over the past few years!

The US also gets far more technology from Israel than Israel gets from the US.

It’s a shame when the uneducated, like yourself, are allowed to make up their own facts and freely post them across the net. Go back to India.

Webej
Webej
5 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

Hamas was created by Israel, according to an Israeli Prime Minister.
It was funded continuously by Israel.

Hezbollah arose to kick the Israeli’s out of southern Lebaonon.

You are reversing the arrow of time and the order of cause & effect.

The only way to achieve peace and stability is to cut out the cancerous tumor inserted into the Middle East by Western Power.

Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago
Reply to  todde

Thanks for an honest report. Since the internet is blocked and you appear to be in Iran, you must be using Starlink. Isn’t that risky? Are you IRGC opposition?

todde
todde
5 days ago
Reply to  Jojo

I get a weekly phone call from an old business associates family who I became friends with a long while back.

as far as I know there is no internet access in Iran, or at least from the outside. you can reach internet sites, but no foreign. I can ask but for some reason that is how I think it is set up now. Starlink isnt available unless it was smuggled in.

we talk by satellite phone, but b4 the war we could call on our cell phones.

as far as IRGC opposition, they aren’t fighting them if that is what you are asking.

They, being the dozen or so that I know have great reverence for the Ayatollha and even some members of the IRGC. the IRGC is not a monolith, and there are other political parties outside of the IRGC and even completely independent politicians not affiliated with any party.

there are two main factions in the IRGC, the ones who follow the Mullah, and the ones who follow the moolah.

if the lead negotiator has been arrested, then we know the Mullahs are in charge, and there will be no peace. if a deal will be worked out, it will be the moolah Guards who do that.

Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago
Reply to  todde

Where are the Kurds? Not hearing anything from them. They appear unwilling to use this opportunity to create wedges against the Iranian Regime.

Tony Frank
Tony Frank
6 days ago

The taco economy continues to be hurt by ill-fated policies.

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago

Seriously off topic, but is this boxes of Ticks found by farmers real?
I’m still surprised that a Tick bite can lead to not being able to eat meat.

why
why
6 days ago

As much as I agree the war on Iran was stupid it occured not because of Israel as a lot of people like to claim (Israel however is important because they have the will to fight Iran more than the West and can be used for blame because of this) it happened because the East is moving away from the West.

This movement started back during “the great recession” with the creation of the BRIC nations. It gained increasing traction since the Russian and Ukraine war. And currently has expanded to Iran.

Iran is key in many ways because Iran is a direct threat to our allies in the middle East (it could apply pressure to other middle east counties to submit to BRICs, especially of they decided to use force), and even Europe. Iran is also key due to it’s relationship to both Russia and China. For example Russia and Iran agreed (2024, or 2025) to build a pipeline that would divert natural gas away from Europe. This is interesting given the Nord Stream pipeline explosion, no? And China imported ~20% (past tense now due to the war) of its total oil consumption from Iran (which was like ~90% of Iran’s total oil production).

Since Russia and China are considered the main architects of the BRICs it only seems rational to attack it’s weakest links in its energy supply systems: Ukraine for Russia as its the gate to the EU, and Iran as it’s a gate to China. This is reinforced by the fact the US has placed sanctions on both Russia and China.

Given this we can say World War 3 has already started, and it’s not a surprise the bond market is starting to move given this.

We have to remember collapses usually start slowly (Mish said it was a dip the movement away from the dollar), gain momentum (what is starting right now), and at some point collapse all at once (some time in the future).

We are in the phase of gaining momentum. And we should be in this phase for a few year. As we move through this phase things will get worse and more chaotic, but it wont hold a candle to the hell years of the full on collapse when most people will realize that indeed World War 3 has arrived.

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago
Reply to  why

In Neal Asher‘s sci-fi Polity Universe, the “Quiet War” is a pivotal historical event where Artificial Intelligences (AIs) staged a bloodless coup to take complete control of human civilization

why
why
6 days ago
Reply to  Wilbur Mercer

The claims on AI taking over are completely rubbish. I’m of the opinion the hype around AI and the fables of what it can do is an excuse companies and the govt make as to why masses of people are gonna lose their jobs.

Blame the innovation and the greed of corporations not the economic or geopolitical policies of the govt.

Last edited 6 days ago by why
Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago
Reply to  why

You chose an apropos screen name! You must look in the mirror daily and ask “WHY did my parents make me so dumb?”

Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago
Reply to  Wilbur Mercer

Good to see that someone else also enjoys Neal Asher and his Polity series of galaxy wide space opera books (Aliens! Space battles! Death rays! Super human’s! Cool technology imaginations!).

This Polity universe the author writes in is run by a single sentient AI based on Earth. That AI and its sub-machines took over from humanity in what is termed a “Quiet War”. 

Below is the description of how that control transition occurred from the authors fake encyclopedia. It could happen in our real world similarly.

Quiet War: This is often how the AI takeover is described, and even using ‘war’ seems overly dramatic. It was more a slow usurpation of human political and military power, while humans were busy using that power against each other. It wasn’t even very stealthy. Analogies have been drawn with someone moving a gun out of the reach of a lunatic while that person is ranting and bellowing at someone else. And so it was. AIs, long used in the many corporate, national and religious conflicts, took over all communication networks and the computer control of weapons systems. Most importantly, they already controlled the enclosed human environments scattered throughout the solar system. Also establishing themselves as corporate entities, they soon accrued vast wealth with which to employ human mercenary armies. National leaders in the solar system, ordering this launch or that attack, found their orders either just did not arrive, or caused nil response. Those same people ordering the destruction of the AIs, found themselves weaponless, in environments utterly out of their control, and up against superior forces and, on the whole, public opinion. It had not taken the general population, for whom it was a long-established tradition to look upon their human leaders with contempt, very long to realise that the AIs were better at running everything. And it is very difficult to motivate people to revolution, when they are extremely comfortable and well off.

https://www.nealasher.co.uk/polity-encyclopaedia/

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago

None of this really matters as the world and lifestyles have changed, but remained the same.
I re-read the Boondocks comic daily, there is also a cartoon, Macgruder started the strip before the 2000 election.
It is stunning how much of the material could be about todays events.
Person of interest was about AI’s then managed serious discussions about privacy.
Mr. Robot literally slapped everyone in the face within ten minutes of the first episode. Then followed it every season.
The Boys is pretty much close to the original Rollerball in corporate domination and ineptness.
Some one said the US remakes a Godzilla movie every five years because it takes that long for everyone to forget how bad the last one was.
Now we repeat Batman, Superman, and Spiderman none building on the mystique nor character of the previous cycle.
The winners write history then the losers dig up their documentation and write it again.
Who knows about this

During the Mexican-American War (1846–1848), several hundred Irish immigrants deserted the U.S. Army to fight for Mexico, forming a legendary unit called El Batallón de San Patricio (the Saint Patrick’s Battalion).
Led by Irish-born former U.S. Army soldier John Riley, these men defected because of severe anti-Catholic bigotry, low pay, and brutal mistreatment by Protestant U.S. officers. Sharing the same Catholic faith with the Mexican people, they found a stronger sense of solidarity and loyalty to Mexico for Mexico, forming a legendary unit called El Batallón de San Patricio (the Saint Patrick’s Battalion)
Today, they are widely celebrated as national heroes in Mexico and are remembered in Ireland for their bravery.

Are they US deserter criminals or Irish/Mexican heroes?
Or are there no heroes nor villains just people who acted in the moment just because they were tired of the same old crap?
Next week something new and shiny will capture our attention, but will still be the same old recycled guestimated false understanding and narrative.

Luke
Luke
5 days ago
Reply to  Wilbur Mercer

CLEARLY you didn’t see the newest spider man movie 🙄

john
john
6 days ago

America supplies weapons to Ukraine who is now using them to cut the Russian supply of Oil to World Markets by destroying Russian Refineries? America also invades Venezuela and now controls their Oil supply. Then America starts a War with Iran and now sets up a Blockade of Oil shipments. American Policy is now hindering Globlal Oil supplies from 3 major regions and seems to be attempting to make things worse? Starting to think this is really a planned American Political strategy to push the World into a Global Depression? People keep talking about the coming big Reset and maybe it is now in action?
But we are told to blame all these Oil problems on Russia and Iran it seems?
https://kyivindependent.com/central-russias-major-oil-refineries-halt-production-following-ukrainian-drone-attacks-reuters-reports/

Last edited 6 days ago by john
Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  john

Once upon a time, not so long ago, any development that the establishment of the day didn’t like could automatically be blamed on Jews.

Crops failed? Because Jews.

Freak storm sank the royal fleet? Everyone knows that Jews not only hate us because we are so noble and kind, Jews also can control the weather.

Foreign invasion? Machinations of Jews.

King’s eldest son and heir turns out to be a rather flamboyant and barely closeted homosexual? Jews, you silly goose!

No evidence needed. Because Jews. What, are you on their side?

Today’s establishment is far more enlightened. They do not blame unwanted election results and social dissension on Jews. Instead, they blame Russia and Iran.

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

Have you been to Zero Hedge recently?
The JEW get blamed for everything.
Tedious after a while but all stories contain a grain of truth.
But the are just as ruthless about Muslims, Turks, Asian, Indians and similar groups under the umbrella term PAJEETS.
Then again everyone hates the next town over or the next street over or the neighbors.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  Wilbur Mercer

Zero Hedge is hardly “establishment”. More like a pack of kooks, cranks, crackpots, conspiracy nutters and incels.

Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

The news content from ZH is good. The comments are best ignored.

Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago
Reply to  Wilbur Mercer

New Rule: No Jews, No News

Real Time with Bill Maher

May 15, 2026

People say the left and the right can’t agree on anything these days? Well, there is this one thing they agree on: hating Israel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHOJCbRJu28

njbr
njbr
6 days ago
Reply to  john

Ukraine is choking Russia’s oil via drones despite Trump’s best efforts to give Ukraine to Russia–a significant hit to Russia’s cash cow and a bright red warning to beware the new world of drone warfare

This is what I believe is stopping the US from bombing Iran again–Iran’s threat to drone all the Gulf countries into burning wasteland of formerly productive facilities

All the US and Gulf countries have to do is look at Ukraine/Russia

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  njbr

If Trump wanted to “give Ukraine to Russia” he need only cut of ISR and intelligence. This can be done immediately and does not cost a cent.

Trump has done no such thing, in fact American assistance to Ukraine has increased in recent months.

Last edited 6 days ago by Feral Finster
Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

It could be that the most corrupt nation in Europe is actually a money laundering nation.

Webej
Webej
6 days ago
Reply to  njbr

? Ukraine
The drones are built in Italy, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, France, etc.
The targeting and ISR to fly through lacunae in Russian Air Defense is all supplied by NATO/USA.
It is the USA that is trying to choke Russian oil exports, and it seems its strategy is to choke off oil everywhere. Don’t blame Trump. He is easily manipulated. He is not privy to the larger plans. Current US action against Iran, Russia, and China are literally executing on plans deposited by think tanks decades ago.

Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago
Reply to  njbr

Ukraine is on the job providing anti-drone defense. Pakistan recently reaffirmed its mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and sent jets and soldiers. Israel and the US are defending the UAE.

On top of this, Iran doesn’t have much ammo left and whenever they pop their heads above ground, they are quickly spotted and targeted with a missile attack.

Webej
Webej
5 days ago
Reply to  john

Yes. The US is trying to regain its lever on world power, which has always been its control over oil routes — that’s what started the war with Japan, and that’s why Hitler needed to go to Russia, Azerbaijan, Romania, and the Mid-East. WW2 was already a petroleum war.

They would rather sink the global economy, hoping to come out on top in a war about oil and oil routes.

john
john
5 days ago
Reply to  Webej

Agree. Global Oil Control is the constant main goal of America

moparsully
moparsully
6 days ago

30 years ago Clinton had a balanced budget, then he banged an intern but what is more important

Sentient
Sentient
6 days ago
Reply to  moparsully

Technically, he only banged her mouth.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
6 days ago
Reply to  Sentient

Even more technically he probably just sat there while she did all the work.

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

If he did all the work there is another term for that.
Both work fine though.

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago
Reply to  Sentient

Well he did penetrate her with a cigar that he smoked in front of Hillary later.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
6 days ago
Reply to  moparsully

Republicans controlled the budget and spending that that time.

In reality it got balanced because of massive productivity gains thanks to computers getting deployed everywhere along with the rise of the internet and of course the stock market bubble. None of which had anything to do with who was in power in the presidency or congress/senate.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
6 days ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Donald Trump disagrees with you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w

moparsully
moparsully
6 days ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

So why is that not happening again today with the next generation, so called AI

Jojo
Jojo
5 days ago
Reply to  moparsully

It will when we let AI run everything!

Webej
Webej
5 days ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

No balance. Myth.
The national debt never went down.
The so-called “surplus” is only in terms of cash.

Debt increases are somehow always greater than the sum of the deficit spending.

moparsully
moparsully
6 days ago

The structural budget deficit is problem 1A and no one cares

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  moparsully

Everyone cares. No one is willing to sacrifice themselves or compromise with others. We are a 3rd world country with 3rd world people.

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago
Reply to  moparsully

If I understand it there are about 350 million Americans. About 150 million are employed BUT those not seeking work or after dropping off the unemployment rolls are not counted.
There are X amount of illegals and imported labor.
Most people don’t read and we now have a national iq average of 90.
What sliver of that group is expected to know anything about the budget and debt?

Webej
Webej
5 days ago
Reply to  moparsully

The deficit pays for the trade deficit — without it Walmart would be empty.

Trade deficits, fiscal deficits, foreign purchases of Treasuries, outsourcing of industry … these are all related factors, balance sheet identities.

todde
todde
5 days ago
Reply to  Webej

Dollars go overseas, and the cheapest way to get it back is government debt.

Trade deficits matter, unfortunately. we have a fiscal deficit, a trade deficit and a leadership deficit, they all matter.

Business Man
Business Man
6 days ago

Lots of negatives here. Don’t let Democrat partisanship cloud your economic reasoning.

My speculation on what will happen:

1) Deal announced today or tomorrow on second-chance ceasefire, with Hormuz open and sanctions/blockade on Iran lifted temporarily. Both sides want relief, and so do the Gulf nations.
2)This will go on for a few weeks to provide relief for oil markets and oil physical infrastructure and logistics. Replenish oil reserves. Jabbering will still be going on, but everyone will be getting ready for phase II by buying as much time as possible.
3) Trump will reinstate blockade/sanctions at a later date, using this until November midterms.
4) After midterms war will go hot again if Iran doesn’t agree to nuclear dismantling (and they won’t).

Yes, Trump should have done all this prior to war with Iran, but he didn’t calculate wisely. They are learning and watch what happens.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
6 days ago
Reply to  Business Man

“Replenish oil reserves?” Lol. That will take years and that’s if oil starts flowing again.

moparsully
moparsully
6 days ago
Reply to  Business Man

Nothing will happen

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago
Reply to  moparsully

Bingo but we have months of continual blather and false speculation to look forward to. Maybe years.

JCH1952
JCH1952
6 days ago
Reply to  Business Man

 Don’t let Democrat partisanship cloud your economic reasoning.”

First step in achieving clouded economic reasoning. It just astounds me, that after Reagan, Bush, W, and Trump that there is anybody left who actually believes conservatives are capable of economics.

Neil
Neil
6 days ago
Reply to  JCH1952

It is astonishing. Also, wars are started by republican presidents (Irak, Afghanistan, Irak, now Iran). Democrats are then tasked to clean up the mess. This is not to say that democrats are perfect. Just that there is a pattern to who caused the real mess.

top gone
top gone
6 days ago
Reply to  Neil

not to mention the economic pain. There is always a delay between cause and effect. Obama got fucked on Bushes policy. Trump did great on Obamas cause and biden got fucked on Trumps cause Trump managed to fuck up so bad that he now has to deal with his own project 2025 bullshit

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  Neil

Libya, Syria and Ukraine.

Jackula
Jackula
6 days ago
Reply to  Business Man

Lol! It’s hilarious how knuckleheads are accusing Mish of partisanship. Mish is not a Democrat. However you have a helluva partisan description of reality. Actually the Iranians have figured out where the Trump family assets are in the ME and will destroy them if attacked again…and the Iranians will not be limiting themselves to targets in the ME.

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago
Reply to  Jackula

People really care about what side someone is on?
I just figure they write to keep relevant.
Kind of like economic DJ’s or social media influencers.
I thought that TRUE partisans would just duel like gangbangers.

Neil
Neil
6 days ago
Reply to  Business Man

Interesting to see that “democratic partisanship” is countered by “speculation”.

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago
Reply to  Neil

And speculation is created from imagination.

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  Business Man

Sadly, like Trump, you wildly underestimate Iran.

Creamer
Creamer
6 days ago
Reply to  Business Man

Did you all hear that?! The deal is coming tomorrow everyone!

todde
todde
5 days ago
Reply to  Creamer

oddly enough, 2 iranian media outlets are reporting a deal is imminent.

the lead Iranian negotiator is on Twitter saying no deal coming.

Rumor mill is Iran says the lead negotiator has been arrested by the Mullah backed IRGC.

Rumors and bullshit from the other side.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
6 days ago

and about AI: According to an internal memo, Intuit plans to lay off around 3,000 employees in its shift to AI.  https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/intuit-cut-17-global-jobs-streamline-operations-memo-shows-2026-05-20/

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
6 days ago

Ironically, I plan on cutting Intuit in my shift to AI too. Why do I need them for taxes and accounting software when I can build my own for pennies on the dollar?

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
6 days ago

If Countries Stop Buying U.S. Debt, Everything Changes.
https://thefulcrum.us/business-democracy/countries-buying-us-debt

Webej
Webej
5 days ago

That implies they stop producing and selling goods to America.

Blurtman
Blurtman
6 days ago

Populism, of which America First is a form, is directly opposed to the war with Iran.

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  Blurtman

Populism is just a form of fascism. Populism never means “all the people”, just the one’s who count. It is always a political system where some group of politicians say you (white, Christian, working-class, conservative) are the real people who count and are under attack by the evil other (black, Mexican, non-religious, gay) who must be weakened so that you can retake your rightful place in the world. It must inevitably lead to war because it is based on the dynamic of dominance over others.

Webej
Webej
5 days ago
Reply to  Jon

That’s one way to put it.
On the other side, criticizing popular government is an easy rationalization against paying any attention to the populace and keeping the “experts” and “elite” in charge.

Last edited 5 days ago by Webej
Jon
Jon
5 days ago
Reply to  Webej

I prefer experts. Elites being in charge is strictly a function of how the system is set up.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
6 days ago

“Add all of those up. Does it look stagflationary or not?”

The entire economy is being carried on the back of AI build out. Ironically, there isn’t enough electricity to power it all so once that crashes, everyone will be running for the hills.

Iran Ayatollah said nuclear material staying in Iran so if Trump starts bombing again and Iran retaliates, oil will go to the moon.

The free floating oil is all gone now, the pain starts early June even with a magic peace treaty. Ironically, peak summer driving season and holiday travel starts around the same time. Double ouch, double lol for the TACO.

Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™ 

Jack X
Jack X
6 days ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

All Iran needs to do is do nothing & everyday their power grows. Oh man the girfter in chief is the dumbest most vile creature alive on this earth.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  Jack X

Let us not forget the grand plan by USI (United States of Israel) to reinstall Ahmadenijad as President. Also hard to type this out with a straight face.

Jack X
Jack X
6 days ago

That’s all propaganda & besides the President has only control of economic matters & not military or foreign policy.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago
Reply to  Jack X

Please tell me that was sarcasm.

Jack X
Jack X
6 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

No, how is it sarcasm, in Iran the President hos no say at all about foreign policy or military. How the hell is the US gonna reinstall anyone, have you been asleep the last 47 years? They have tried for that long & failed, they now had their ass handed to them twice in 6 months by Iran. learn to read & understand before commenting in the future.

Webej
Webej
5 days ago
Reply to  Jack X

Are you an expert on the distribution of power and competencies in the Republic? Familiar with the constitution?

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
6 days ago

A Scary Enemy is always a necessity.

1. To justify why we can’t have nice things. Healthcare? Infrastructure? Education? We don’t have time for that now, don’t you know we gotta fight Saddam/Milosevic/Bin Laden/Saddam again/Ghadaffi/Assad/ISIS/Putin/Hamas/Houthis/ad nauseam.
2. To give the rubes a cause to rally around, rather than ask awkward questions.
3. To unify political factions around a common enemy, justify the division of spoils and explain why we can’t have nirvana right at the moment, we’d really like to but the Scary Enemy is stopping us and don’t you know we gotta focus on this fight, right now!
4. To justify crackdowns on civil liberties. You and your namby-pamby Bill of Rights, you hate our freedom! What, are you on the side of the fascists/communists/Islamicists/Russians/ ad nauseam?

Webej
Webej
5 days ago

Straight face?
Hard to type without getting your fingers in a knot.

Wilbur Mercer
Wilbur Mercer
6 days ago
Reply to  Jack X

Right on Iran wrong on Trump.
Trump is the distraction while the real destruction of civil liberties and the placement of the forces to implement are placed.

moparsully
moparsully
6 days ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

AI is just a catch phrase for the next level of coding, it is code that writes its own code. I was doing that my entire life as an engineer for simple things, you need a report for a project you generate something from a similar project then edit it accordingly

Jon
Jon
6 days ago
Reply to  moparsully

I just finished using Google Gemini to write a full life-cycle contract management system using Python/Django and PostgreSQL. I gave it a complete set of functional and UI/UX requirements and walked it through the process (basically telling it what order to accomplish everything). I had copilot use the requirements to perform unit testing. Never touched the code once. Worked like a champ.

moparsully
moparsully
6 days ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

The next generation of coding might be interesting, where it tells the code who to generate the code that writes the code

Webej
Webej
5 days ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Oil will go to the moon.

Shortly after, the financial system will start to seriously deflate.

Jack X
Jack X
6 days ago

When $100 oil is a bargain & inflation surging you just know, we are F’kd

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
6 days ago
Reply to  Jack X

Under Biden Trump said $90 is why the USA is a shithole, while under Trump Trump says $100 oil is nothing to pay as service to his ego AND already made America great again compared to cheaper oil.

Jack X
Jack X
6 days ago

Last figures from the SPR was 9.9 million barrels of oil removed from the oil reserves in a week, this from week ending 15th May. Another 26 million barrels & it will be the lowest since 1985 & already another 10 million has probably gone in the days after.

The Grifter in Chief is dumping oil in markets to falsify prices downwards in unprecedented force. From here on in the prices will start to skyrocket as the reserves become depleted & inflation will continue to surge. I said months ago inflation will explode to previous highs & surpass them. The Fed will be forced to hike rates until the whole system explodes. The only cure now is a massive deflationary collapse, it’s either that or hyperinflation.

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