Expect much higher prices for oil when the market opens. Here are the events in play.
Iran Orders Closure of Strait of Hormuz
Color me skeptical that Iran can pull this off for any length of time, but the New York Post reports Iran Orders Closure of Strait of Hormuz putting one-fifth of world’s oil supply at risk.
Iran’s parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping channel through which around 20% of the world’s daily oil flows.
The move, which could block $1 billion in oil shipments per day, is likely to send oil prices soaring.
It will come into effect pending a final decision by Iran’s Supreme Council.
The Supreme Council’s decision must be made by tonight, according to Iran’s state-run Press TV.
Iran’s major escalation in response to US strikes on its nuclear facilities “will be done whenever necessary,” Email Kosari, Commander in the Revolutionary Guards, said on Sunday.
The strait connecting the Gulf of Oman with the Persian Gulf is one of the world’s most critical chokepoints — just 20 miles wide at its narrowest point.
Shipping lanes in the strait — the area that is deep enough for ships to pass — are even narrower at less than two miles wide in each direction, making them much more vulnerable to attacks and threats of closure.
Strait Closure More Fear than Reality?
I side with the Reuters article Iran Oil Doomsday in Hormuz May Be More Fear than Reality.
While Israel and Iran have targeted elements of each other’s energy infrastructure, there has been no significant disruption to maritime activity in the region so far.
But President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel by bombing three of Iran’s main nuclear sites in the early hours of Sunday could alter Tehran’s calculus. Iran, left with few cards to play, could retaliate by hitting U.S. targets across the region and disrupting oil flows.
Can They Do It?
The first question to ask is whether Iran is actually capable of seriously disrupting or blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
The answer is probably yes. Iran could attempt to lay mines across the Strait, which is 55 km (34 miles) wide at its narrowest point. The country’s army or the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could also try to strike or seize vessels in the Gulf, a method they have used on several occasions in recent years.
Moreover, while Hormuz has never been fully blocked, it has been disrupted several times.
During the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, the two sides engaged in the so-called “Tanker Wars” in the Gulf. Iraq targeted Iranian ships, and Iran attacked commercial ships, including Saudi and Kuwaiti oil tankers and even U.S. navy ships.
Following appeals from Kuwait, then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan deployed the navy between 1987 and 1988 to protect convoys of oil tankers in what was known as Operation Earnest Will. It concluded shortly after a U.S. navy ship shot down Air Iran flight 655, killing all of its 290 passengers on board.History Lesson
history has shown that severe disruptions to global oil supplies have tended to be short-lived.
Iraq’s invasion of neighboring Kuwait in August 1991 caused the price of Brent crude to double to $40 a barrel by mid-October. Prices returned to the pre-invasion level by January 1992 when a U.S.-led coalition started Operation Desert Storm, which led to the liberation of Kuwait the following month.
What If Iran Tries to Close the Strait of Hormuz?
Bloomberg asks What If Iran Tries to Close the Strait of Hormuz?
Could Iran really block the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran would have no legal authority to order a halt to traffic through Hormuz, so would need to achieve this by force or the threat of force.If its navy tried to bar entry to the strait, it would likely be met with a strong response from the US Fifth Fleet and other Western navies patrolling the area.
But it could cause severe disruption without a single Iranian warship leaving port. One option would be to harry shipping with small, fast patrol boats. Or it could launch drones and fire missiles toward ships from coastal or inland sites. That could make it too risky for commercial ships to venture through.
Similar tactics have been employed successfully by the Houthi militia in Yemen to disrupt traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait leading into the Red Sea on the other side of the Arabian peninsula. The Houthis have mostly fired missiles and drones at ships after warning owners of vessels linked to the US, the UK and Israel that they will be attacked if they approach the area.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz would quickly hit Iran’s own economy as it would prevent it from exporting its petroleum. And it would antagonize China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil and a critical partner that’s used its veto power at the UN Security Council to shield Iran from Western-led sanctions or resolutions.
Who relies most on the Strait of Hormuz?
Saudi Arabia exports the most oil through the Strait of Hormuz, though it can divert shipments to Europe by using a 746-mile pipeline across the kingdom to a terminal on the Red Sea, allowing it to avoid both the Strait of Hormuz and the southern Red Sea. The UAE can export some of its crude without relying on the strait, by sending 1.5 million barrels a day via a pipeline from its oil fields to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman to the south of Hormuz.
With its oil pipeline to the Mediterranean closed, all of Iraq’s oil exports are currently shipped by sea from the port of Basra, passing through the strait, making it highly reliant on free passage. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain have no option but to ship their oil through the waterway. Most of the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz heads to Asia.
WTI Oil Poised to Open at $80
Bloomberg discusses a Fragile Moment for the Global Economy
The rising geopolitical risks intersect with a potential escalation in tariffs in the coming weeks as President Donald Trump’s pauses of his hefty so-called “reciprocal” levies are due to expire. The biggest economic impact from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would likely be felt via surging oil prices.
Post the US strike, a derivative product that allows investors to speculate on price swings in crude oil surged 8.8% on IG Weekend Markets. If that move were to hold when trading resumes, IG strategist Tony Sycamore said he projects WTI crude oil futures will open at around $80 per barrel.
How High the Open?
WTI is West Texas Intermediate. US oil prices should be the least impacted.
The Friday close was $74.93. If the $80 target is correct, WTI would open about $5 higher which is a 6.7 percent jump.
If the 8.8 percent derivatives number is accurate, we are looking at an open of $81.52.
Brent crude is currently $75.48 and rates to be more impacted.
Does this Make any Sense?
Not to me. Iran has zero cards. Whether you agree with the US attack or not, Iran has no cards and no lasting threats.
All Iran can do is economically harm itself. This assessment holds true up and until the moment it actually has a nuclear weapon. And that’s why it wants one.
If Iran had a bomb, the US and Israel would not have been able to do what it did.
What Will This Do to Fed Rate Cut Odds?
Nothing lasting if anything at all. As reported this morning, Fed Rate Cuts Odds for July Only 10.3 Percent.
There is no Fed meeting in August. This incident will have cleared up by September.
Spotlight Reciprocal Tariffs
Even though there will not be a long-term impact from these events, the short term impact is higher oil and higher reported inflation.
This is happening just as Trump is scheduled to reinstate reciprocal tariffs.
There are conflicting stories of a July 9 reinstatement by Trump, and a further delay by Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent.
TACO Trump Delays Again as Bessent Pushes Back a July 9 Announcement
On June 16, I commented TACO Trump Delays Again as Bessent Pushes Back a July 9 Announcement
Oil will give the administration another excuse to delay.
April 17, 2025: Trump Wants 90 Trade Deals in 90 Days. How Realistic Is That?
The administration says we are on “Trump time”. Any bets?
April 25, 2025: Trump Tells Time Magazine He Has Made 200 Deals Already, Refused to Name Any
Check out this incredible interview with Time.
Related Posts
May 28, 2025: The Court Unanimously Strikes Down Trump’s Global Tariffs, Here’s Why
Let’s discuss Trump’s rationale for the tariffs and the court ruling.
June 6, 2025: Reciprocal Tariffs Are Dead, but Trump Has 7 Other Options to Discuss
Enjoy the Stay
If the appeals court ruling is wide enough the Supreme Court may not even hear a further appeal.
The uncertainty of on-off tariff threats is itself economically damaging. Businesses have no way of reacting to Trump’s ever-changing mood.
Trump has made no deals other than the UK, except in his head.
For now, the Appeals Court granted a stay. The full appeals court hears final arguments on July 31. In August, we will have a ruling from the Appeals Court.
I remain very confident Trump will lose. However, Trump can and will do a lot of economic damage to the country between now and then.
Recession is baked in the cake.
Addendum
So much for the Bloomberg report that derivatives suggested $80 oil at the open.
That did not make a lot of sense to me. WTI is up a more modest $1.80 to $77.26.
This aged like milk. Oil is now down over 7% on the day.
WTIC closed at 67.23, down 9.2%.
A collapsing US economy won’t be able to support high oil prices, so it will fall.
Gold and oil are not moving much in the little hours of trading…
Nothing to see here, move along.
War is good food, apparently
Many F 35 orders have been canceled.
Trimmed the order to free up money to buy more drones.
Can you give specifics? That would be newsworthy for sure!
You can find specifics yourself, if you try looking. Seems like winds of cancellations are blowing, but have not uprooted orders to this point.
“One side effect of Trump’s brash, undiplomatic attitude is that some allied nations may back out of purchasing F-35 fighter jets from the U.S.”
https://reason.com/2025/03/17/allies-cancel-orders-of-f-35s-the-fighter-jets-that-will-cost-2-trillion/
I would think iran has the capacity to make a dirty bomb and the means to launch it at Israel.
Take what radio active material you have place it around a warhead on a missile. There you go.
The world is a messy place. Imo most times a low grade conflict like iran/ Palestine/ is better than an all out war.
Not condoning the bombing. American politicians are not held to account by Israel. Aipac on the other hand has them by the balls. .
There is little to no chance that there will not be an event to block the straight of Hormuz.
Depleting the U.S. arsenal of cruise missiles is in Chinas best interests.
Meanwhile, oil trades at $75.00 on the button as I tap on the keys. The $80.00 was just a knee jerk and sign of what might be a little sample of what the Neo-Cons have up their sleeves.
<
But Donald Trump told us it was a fantastic success!
You mean he was lying?
<
Or Duped?
Or Complicit?
>
Iran should hire out whoever sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines to close the Strait of Hormuz to hide responsibility. Whoever did that has friends in high places.
The last thing the Iranian’s should do is retaliate in any way.
Their people are on the verge of a genocide that will make Hitler’s look like Child’s play…
> than Gaza…
Russia doesn’t want to close the Strait
why not? higher oil prices directly benefit russia
Iran parliament reportedly backs closing Strait of Hormuz
Trump admin is calling on China to prevent Iran from closing it.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/us-urges-china-to-dissuade-iran-from-closing-strait-of-hormuz/articleshow/122008727.cms
Come, China! Come dance in our shitshow!
In the analysis of what Iran may or may not do, we can’t forget that Iranians have a different perspective on loss of life and the protection of their people. We should expect that they will do just about anything to save face.
Also, note that all of the comments talk about what Trump will do, not what the U.S will do. We can’t capitulate or normalize the fact that even his Secretary of State and VP don’t know what is going on.
Mission Accomplished!!
Meanwhile in the NYT
“U.S. Officials Concede They Don’t Know Whereabouts of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile–Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director of general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he believed Tehran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear material had been moved before the strikes.
If Iran was truly weeks away from nukes, that is well beyond the enrichment phase. If true, Iran should withdraw from the NPT, build several bombs, invite the IAEA to confirm it and tell the US and Israel to FAAFO. They will be left alone. Israel is a small country and only a handful of nukes could totally disable it.
If not, Orange Man and Bibi have (kosher) egg on their faces.
Think about it, this nonsense about the radioactive toys still being there. It gives the U.S. and Israel the perfect excuse and free reigns to continue to annihilate Iran and take their oil at their leisure.
China is building a massive pipeline straight up into Russia so they may or may not have an interest in Iran.
Perhaps the script for this was written a long time ago and Israel finally found a stupid enough president to fall for it?
>
Iran has blown their wad of expensive missiles or is close to it. Israel CONTROLS THE SKIES over Iran. The price of oil after a day or so has no where to go but down. Iran has no choice but to put up and shut up. The next logical step of escalation would be the surgical amputation of their oil industry. They don’t want that.
Is hope a plan?
no matter what some fake tough guy ever said, hope is always the only strategy. nobody would get out of bed otherwise.
Where do you get this stuff?
The Rev. John Hagee traveling salvation show.
ISREAL CONTROLS THE SKIES OVER WASHINGTON DC and those pathetic surrounding counties.
Notice that the only criticism from democrats of any rank is that they weren’t notified in advance, not the strikes themselves.
Those pesky Constitutional laws
democrats would be very wise to line up against this dumb war. If they vote with trump on it they will tarnish their record for the rest of their career all for a pointless war with ill defined objectives… that currently polls at 15% approval. And if democrats are only good at one thing its following the polls
If Israel was really doing so well, they wouldn’t have played their Trump card.
Is that your big plan? LOL
LOL Iran has plenty of missiles, let’s see how long Israel elects to spend $50K per iron dome seed launched.
people seem to be under the impression that isreal has unlimited resources. That any supply shortfalls will be made up by USA. both of these assumptiosn are very wrong
isreal does not have unlimitted patriot anti-air weapons. also even if they did they are not very effective against ballistic missles. Finally all missles in Iran are made in house. They have the manufacturing and the expertise with lots of scientist and engineers. China is going to continue to supply iran. They can fight this war as long as they want. Isreal cannot last more than a few weeks
…Yet analysts say it is very hard to judge whether the Iranian nuclear program, shrouded in mystery, has centrifuges squirreled away, or where exactly it is keeping many kilograms of unaccounted-for, highly enriched uranium. There may even still be entire sites no one knows about, experts add, on top of the difficulties working out the extent of destruction to areas so deep underground…..Iran was producing considerable amounts of highly enriched uranium at Fordow, but it is not immediately apparent how much was still at the site in recent days, Alberque told Newsweek earlier on Sunday.
Iran literally said on the 19th of June that these sites had been cleared out
Trump looks like the deranged, compromised, bought lunatic he is with his tirade against Massie.
I agree Mish. Blocking the SoH hurts Iran more than Israel or the US, and it pisses off China and other Asian buyers of Iranian crude.
It would also interrupt crucial food imports that Iran needs.
It will also be difficult for Iran to accomplish for any length of time.
I expect oil prices to rise temporarily on the threat, but eventually retreat.
I will probably be selling a portion of my oil stocks into strength this week.
I think Iran should go go ahead and build its bombs. Then they will be left alone.
Oh, so there is one rational party to this, and I am not going to say who that is.
I still like my TIMEX
Mish, I hope your data is good but I’m not so sure. The maths aren’t mathin. The Iranians seem to be able to launch drones and missiles at will. If they can hide these they can hide a lot of other military ordinance including anti-aircraft missiles and ground based anti-ship missiles. I have a bad feeling about this. I’d much rather have a president with the temperament and intellect of JFK than Trump right now.
He actually provoked the Cuban Missile Crisis by placing obsolete missiles n Turkey but at least thought it through. He kept the missile trade a secret and later besmirched Adlai Stevenson who actually proposed it. Not exactly a profile in courage.
Let’s see how many Israeli’s Israel is willing to have blown up by Iranian interloper missiles that escape the System, Sling, and Dome. Eventually the blood will exact a price on Israeli military aggression.
When you need a friend….
U.S. calls on China to prevent Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global oil flows
Oh the irony!
In the meantime, Iran has success targeting Israeli cities so why would Iran stop that? What does Trump do if it doesn’t stop?
moves on to the next warfront. yesterday LA, today Persia, tomorrow Toronto or SF
Gold Futures?
Looks like that may be in the cards: From Russia, with love.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-says-countries-now-ready-supply-iran-nuclear-weapons-2088979
I doubt Russia or China is willing to sell a nuke. The North Koreans would, but only if Xi gives permission.
India won’t, they have enough moslem trouble. That leaves Pakistan. Since everyone will know where Iran’s nuke came from Pakistan will catch it from all sides. The Mossad could easily smuggle one of theirs into Karachi, then boom.
if there is one unpleasant fact staring Islam in the face it’s that the Mossad is everywhere. Every government and organization is penetrated.
They hid bin Laden for years with no consequences.
Reuters doesn’t know that Desert storm started 1991 and not 1992😬
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War
Technically, the initial show of force was called Desert Shield. The actual offensive phase was Desert Storm.
You are technically correct- that is the best kind of correct.
(It is a reference to a line from a television program, just so were all on the same page)
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/51/13/99/51139961cff285c0d5e6442da69e58f4.jpg
The Israeli stock exchange jumped 5% last week after it was hit by an Iranian missile. Maybe oil will drop 10% on Trump declaring peace was achieved by his bombing.
J.D. Vance said the US is at war with Iranian nuclear facilities, not with Iran itself. Talk about spinning the story. Pretty soon the US will be at war with Iranian missile launchers and military assets, but not with Iran itself.
I suspect US and Israeli central banks jumped the gun in propping up the market. Or many listed companies short themselves.
Did you know that Israel has run a trade deficit nearly every years since at least the 1960s? We can get away with that because we are the supplier of dollars to the world. Israel must get cash infusions from foreign aid, listing companies overseas, investing in foreign companies, financial scams, espionage, organized crime, donations, Israel Bonds and central bank interventions to prop up the New Israeli Shekel which replaced the old currency in the 1980s when Israel experienced hyperinflation.
https://tradingeconomics.com/israel/balance-of-trade
its JD vance attempt at a fig leaf to hide his rabid pro-war stance since he self-described himself as anti-war or something
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2025/06/22/strait-of-hormuz-why-iran-is-unlikely-to-block-key-oil-shipping-route/
Terrorist states operate from a paradigm of terror and fear. All Iran has to do is attack/sink/seize an oil tanker or two and it will cause chaos.
Put yourself in the shoes of a ship tanker CEO. Are you going to put your cargo and crew on the line to test the resolve of Iran? Are insurance companies going to take on the risk without additional skyrocketing premiums?
But it is fascinating how perspectives change. The link below is from 2012 on the same topic.
https://mishtalk.com/uncategorized/iran-starts-uranium-enrichment-at-fordo-joint-chiefs-of-staff-says-iran-has-ability-to-block-strait-of-hormuz-united-arab-emirates-bypass-oil-pipeline-delayed/
My position didn’t change because I didn’t state one.
Regardless, this isn’t then. Every missile site in Iran will be taken out if Iran gets cute.
I never said your positioned changed. I was referring to the 2012 article with this, “Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz “for a period of time,” and the U.S. would take action to reopen it, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Martin Dempsey said.”
our military couldn’t defeat the taliban outspending them literally 500,000 to one.
I think Israel looked at the decline in our military, Israel’s own decline in reputation after Gaza and concluded their window of opportunity for using the US was closing rapidly.
You don’t really want to defeat the Taliban. This would create a control vacuum in the country, attracting terrorist organizations (as it happened after the defeat of the Soviets).
I think right now the No. 1 concern should be terrorist attacks against the West. Hashtag “commercially available drones”.
the religious-like belief in the power of aerial bombing is magical wish-thinking that Americans like to participate in. Did bombs/arty stop Germany in WW2? 20 *BILLION* lbs of ordinance were dropped on Germany including arty and they kept fighting. Iran is 5 times bigger and is just as fanatical as the nazis
There seem to be a lot of pieces in this juggling act, and I was never one to bet on a trifecta. But Mister High Stakes has gone to town with a lot of our (long term) chips committed at various bets all over the table, on many horse races or whatever, in many instances without even a legit seeking of our buy-in as an allegedly democratic or even republican (small “d,” small “r”) nation. If any big chip doesn’t land right, we are the backstop, and now, not just financially. Our skin is going deeper in the game, one way after another. We are, I’m told prison parlance terms it, “a$$-bettin’,” or getting a lot closer to it, by the week. Exciting yes, but brittle? I’m recalling W’s half-baked getting of consent for Iraq didn’t pan out. Trump bought in, from opposing that legacy, but now he is looking awful familiar. It took FDR a couple years to get us there, to the tipping point of consent, nudged over by Pearl Harbor. If these plays don’t line up, Trump’s legacy will be fragmentation in so many ways. Quadruple or nothing, eh?
GPS Jamming in Strait of Hormuz Raises Maritime Safety Concerns After Tanker Collision
https://gcaptain.com/gps-jamming-in-strait-of-hormuz-raises-maritime-safety-concerns-after-tanker-collision/
Trump will end the Russian oil/gas embargo
And years later will say he did it to prevent Russia from giving nukes to Iran.
And that it was a brilliant decision, really fantastic.
Oil will drop from the opening print and equity markets will rally because the Iran problem is nearly solved. Good job Mr. Trump. The man is amazing!
If Kamala was in office, Iran would get the Nuclear bomb before the end of the year. America dodged a bullet.
Ah, the white house intern has joined this comment section! Good to hear that the Iran problem is “nearly” solved, implying that there is time left to TACO!
See that? Oil down, stocks up. Just as I said. Hope you were on the right side of that trade.
Joe and Kamala or whoever was running things repeatedly bailed out Israel during the Gaza ethnic cleansing. Without US aid, Israel would have had to throw in the towel and Nuttyahoo would have been out.
Did you notice your democrats bitching about not being notified about the strikes rather than the strikes themselves?
I live in CA and voted Green ONLY because of their foreign policy and to give a big middle finger to the democrats. While Trump said some good things, I never trusted him and he would ‘t have carried the state anyway.
Peddle your crap somewhere else.
Just as I said … Oil Prices are down, and Stocks Are Up.
Iran has no cards? The oil fields of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, are much closer to Iran than Israel. Their missiles are unstoppable and increasingly powerful. Yesterday for the first time they used third generation Kheibar-Shekan multi-warhead missiles to devastating effect.
Iran has no cards.
It would be totally flattened if it tried that and the entire Mideast would be against them.
So Trump would nuke the entire nation of Iran? Doubtful. Anything short of that and the missiles just keep coming. All the oil fields in those nations could easily be destroyed and all those nations could soon be under new management.
Hello – when the flying F did I say or imply Trump would nuke the entire country of Iran. When did I say he would use nukes at all?
He would take out every missile site. As soon as missiles launched, we would know where from and it would be the last time.
Calm down you childish, thin-skinned, dork. Apparently you foolishly seem to think the missile sites are fixed positions! They are mobile. Iran is 4x the size of California and one of the world’s mountainous countries. You are clueless.
but we are amerika. we can flatten a mountain empire.
But did the bunker busters actually work? All we really know is that they hit the target at the surface.
Your argument is 70% ad hominem. Way to negate having an argument at all.
None of that matters if leadership decides to martyr the country… 72 virgins for everyone!
Contrary to neocon fairy tales, Iran has very rational leadership and are not foaming at the mouth crazies. Now Israel ….
Thumbs up on that one, Mish!
U.S. / NATO have dozens on military base golf courses just southwest of the Persian Gulf. Trump, Graham, Cruz and Huckabee would make a great foursome.
Use THEM as bunker busters!
flattened? sounds like the hyperbole from the neocons after 9.11.01. what does flattened even mean. no war has been won by air alone. our boys won’t do dyssentary and fight in caves for a decade. they need mcd on their bases. my pal in the caves in afghanistan fighting alongside the mujahadeen defeating the soviets always said our boys are pussies and don’t know how to win since ww2. he was west point, special forces who could speak pashtun and arabic…………..he was correct. after 9.11 he knew our boys would lose bad to taliban. persia is probably 100x more fierce. and iran won the iraq war we waged. our people are stupid and soft. bad combos.
When sent to the border, they complained about eating MREs when there was a Burger King in town.
Aside from getting a big **** of an actual nuke, Iran must continue the pressure on Israel as it must know Trump’s base is upset and there is no upside to undermining the sympathy for Iran and hostility to the Israeli war.
I would love for it to be reported by Isael & Saudi Arabia that their air forces participate in some joint mission to stop Iran from gaining control over the SoH.
That would be very cool.
SA leadership might want to work with Israël for trade purposes, but they know that their legitimacy will be at stake if they would do that, as long as Israël keeps murdering the palestines en masse. SA will not risk local unrest because of that.
I don’t think I or you really know what the SA leaders are thinking.
However, it was well known that one of the reasons Hamas perpetrated 10/7 was to slow or stop SA’s move towards normalizing relations with Israel.
It’s been a very long time since I’ve heard about Sunni religious extremism in SA. Moreover, they appear to be making meaningful inroads to reshaping their economy.
I will be surprised if SA doesn’t sign onto the Abraham Accords by the end of Trump’s final term.
Just my $0.02.
10/7 was known about by mossad. absurd to think it was not.
Then, absurd it is.
I had to check if Ben Shapiro’s middle initial was W. It’s A but just a big a dork.
I sold out Thursday, knowing Trump was inching closer to MOP time. I locked in nice profits on OKLO, SMR, & CWEN. I also sold out of GOOD, PAA & QYLD without significant loss while taking 8-13% dividends. I did the same thing back in the spring just before the big downturn do to tariff expectations. My lone dupe was GOGL. They cut their dividend way back & I lost some on that one. I am holding onto my 300 shares of QS, hoping they show meaningful moves towards commercialization in the next 12 months or so. No worries.
What’s next @ $80 oil? It totally depends on how long it lasts. And that, of course, depends on what the Ayatollah does in the coming days & how swiftly the US & Israel handle the situation(s).
The good news is that Iran’s nuclear weapons program has been set back at least 30 years.
Israel admits to sending out a fake communication to all of those Iranian head dudes, getting them to gather in bunker before taking them out. This along with the pager & cell phone hits show you how capable Israel is & how uncapable Iran is.
But the Ayatollah might have a surprise. I’ve said for 2-3 years now that they may already be a nuclear state with the ability to deploy dirty bombs for sure. This later scenario is what Israel & the US really need to be concerned about, IMHO.
The good news is that Iran’s nuclear weapons program has been set back at least 30 years.
satellite images show only surface damage. There is no way to determine the situation hundreds of meters below the surface without a direct inspection, and the entrance may be blocked, requiring weeks to clear with earth-moving or tunneling equipment.
But with Israel controlling the air space you can bet that if anyone ventures anywhere near those entrances they will be blasted.
It’s going to be a LONG time before Iran will get to see exactly what remains. By then they will have capitulated or their leaders killed.
“The good news is that Iran’s nuclear weapons program has been set back at least 30 years.”
How? You really don’t think that Iran in the 20 years that they have been threatened with the BB bombs hasn’t figured out they needed to be located deeper? And what about the Iranian official saying on June 19 that all enriched uranium and necessary equipment had been removed from the 3 sites? And how about the idea that the US warned Iran that they were going to bomb for days?
How dumb do you think Iranians are?
Very, very dumb.
Do you honestly think Israel would have allowed Iran to remove all of that enriched uranium?
Mossad has had boots on the ground for months now.
Look, I admit that Iran very well may have something nuclear up its sleeve.
The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the SoH. Let’s see how that plays out over the next several days & see what additional battle damage assessment the US & Israel come up with.
Do you really think that the US and the Israelis haven’t thought of that possibility already? If they can take out all of Iran’s top leadership don’t you think that they haven’t kept tabs on where the uranium is? That is the first priority above everything else. They knew where to hit.
Still funny as hell that people cannot understand that a threat expressed for 20 years has not been planned for
Cheyenne Mountain Complex has 2000 feet of granite over it
Why wouldn’t the Iranians go deep?
The enfiched nuclear material was moved a while back, given Israel and US threats
But stay optimistic!
They can penetrate 60m of soil. They cannot penetrate 60m of concrete. Reinforced concrete at about 5000psi would only get penetration of 8-15m.
The facility is beneath 80m of limestone which in the Qom formation is roughly equivalent to about 5000psi concrete.
Beneath the limestone, sits the facility itself which is encased in high performance concrete. So these bombs need to pen 80m of 5000psi material and then a unknown depth of high performance concrete.
‘merican bombs can do anything! They are the solution to any and all problems.
60M of soil. SOIL? The MOP has been updated 6 times since it was first developed. It’s known to be able to penetrate up to 60M of rock or hardened concrete. 4 were dropped on two sites, Natanz & Fordow.
Natanz is less than 50 feet underground & has less than 20 feet of reinforced concrete. I’m not aware of any post bombing sat image of Natanz yet. However, Fordow shows ~ six large holes, 3 each in two separate locations.
So more than likely 2 were dopped on Natanz & would have easily obliterated that facility & 12 were dropped on Fordow with each hole getting two separate MOPs. Each set of 3 holes look to be clustered together, probably all within 150 yards of one another. Six MOPs dropped on that fairly small square area would have done catastrophic damage.
The MOPs have been tested for years, and their deployment to Natanz & Fordow have been planned over the same period of time.
They were built expressly for this in mind. They worked.
I know. And imagine all of the planning & intelligence that’s gone into ensuring they were targeted to the absolute highest possible level of destruction.
My bad that’s 14 total MOPS & 12 dropped on Fordow, IMHO.
Should have used the “plane” that hit the Pentagon on 9/11 ?
Where are Dancing Israelis when ya need ‘em?
Since we don’t know the true parameters it is quasi-impossible for us to judge the effects.
Don’t forget they were built by Boeing. So there’s that.
https://www.newsweek.com/bunker-buster-bombs-what-know-1900788
Nobody cares about your trades, Ben
I know that, Matt. How’s your portfolio doing?
Why didn’t Ben invest on the Tel Aviv stock exchange? It’s just down the street from him.
How capable Israel is? Planning a move to Tel Aviv? Good luck!
Is Peloton (PTON) a buy to get through a nuclear winter?
China threatened to cut off rare earth exports to the USA over tariffs.
I wrote a couple of times previously the US response would be:
Step 1) Israel steps up its fight against Iraq
Step 2) The US gets involved on behalf of Israel
Step 3) Iran predictably closes the straight (cutting off oil to China)
Step 4) The US will intercede in the straight to allow oil passage prioritizing countries that are trading partners in good standing
Step 5) US/China get a tariff deal worked out that ensures oil for rare earths.
We are already at Step 3.
Since 2024, 90% of China’s oil comes from Russia
Trump outfoxed himself.
Russia accounts for only 20% of China’s oil imports in 2024.
There’s a lot of Iranian coastline east of the Straight of Hormuz. China could still get oil from Iran, Saudi and Oman.
Kharg Island is Iran’s terminal for oil exports and accounts for 95% of Iran’s oil exports. It is located deep in the Gulf facing Qatar and is almost 500 kilometers from the entrance to the Gulf. Oil from Iran is out. Oil from Oman and Saudi possibly but there would be some rationing because not enough to go around. Texastim65 is right.
Why should our oil spike when we are able to produce ALL of it domestically? Time to keep our oil here.
We will be under pressure to be a global supplier to keep the coalition of the willing to remain willing and to get the goods we no longer make manufactured and delivered. No oil, no global economy, no demand for dollar exports, dollars stay stateside, inflation go boom!
There were some strange things happening on Friday in the finance markets. The strangest was the markets drifted lower, but the VIX really dropped. The VIX and the stock market typically move in opposite directions. Similarly natural gas dropped 7% in a day.
With the prospects of US military action, I think someone with insider knowledge placed some huge bets for a market rally celebrating victory.
You just might be right — for a week or 2. Damage reports from knowledgeable people on X indicate that there is surface and subsurface damage at the site of the 6 bunker buster detonations, but likely nothing critical was damaged beyond repair. Still, the euphoria of a propaganda-created success by the USM just might ignite a rally, maybe. But now Iran will either expose its nuclear weapons or obtain one from friendly sources (Pakistan?). This will not be an “attack and done” war for the United States. Turmoil to come in waves. Think months or years, just like every war the US has gotten into since Korea. And a similar result.
Thoughtful analysis!
Copied from Grok. Grok relies heavily on X for breaking news.
Iran stuck it out for a decade during the Iran-Iraq war.
Trump cronies given advance notice to front-run the oil market. End-stage corruption continues apace. War is a racket indeed.
hat tip smedley B. i knew a man who served under him in boxer rebellion.
The same thing probably happened on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.
When you wake up, wipe away the fog of propaganda and lies and realize what exactly this country has been doing for +70 years, and continues to do, it’s like a bad dream.
only known democracy/republic that has voted for never ending world wide warfare since 1898. it’s truly exceptional. never in human primate history. bombs away girls.
So we’re NOT actually fighting for freedom?