It’s official, and I am very pleased by this abrupt shift to sanity.
Abrupt Pause on Most Raids
The New York Times reports Trump Shifts Deportation Focus, Pausing Most Raids on Farms, Hotels and Eateries That’s a free link for inquiring minds.
The abrupt pivot on an issue at the heart of Mr. Trump’s presidency suggested his broad immigration crackdown was hurting industries and constituencies he does not want to lose.
The decision suggested that the scale of President Trump’s mass deportation campaign — an issue that is at the heart of his presidency — is hurting industries and constituencies that he does not want to lose.
The new guidance comes after protests in Los Angeles against the Trump administration’s immigration raids, including at farms and businesses. It also came as Mr. Trump made a rare concession this week that his crackdown was hurting American farmers and hospitality businesses.
The guidance was sent on Thursday in an email by a senior ICE official, Tatum King, to regional leaders of the ICE department that generally carries out criminal investigations, including work site operations, known as Homeland Security Investigations.
“Effective today, please hold on all work site enforcement investigations/operations on agriculture (including aquaculture and meat packing plants), restaurants and operating hotels,” he wrote in the message.
The email explained that investigations involving “human trafficking, money laundering, drug smuggling into these industries are OK.” But it said — crucially — that agents were not to make arrests of “noncriminal collaterals,” a reference to people who are undocumented but who are not known to have committed any crime.
The Department of Homeland Security confirmed the guidance.
“We will follow the president’s direction and continue to work to get the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens off of America’s streets,” Tricia McLaughlin, a department spokeswoman, said in a statement.
For months, Mr. Trump and his aides have said they would target all immigrants without legal status in the United States to make good on his campaign promise for mass deportations. While the administration came into office saying it would initially target undocumented immigrants with criminal records, it has in recent weeks expanded to raiding work sites and sweeping up other undocumented immigrants broadly.
Mr. Trump posted after Brooke Rollins, the secretary of agriculture, informed him of farmers who were concerned about the ICE enforcement affecting their businesses, according to a White House official and a person familiar with the matter. Mr. Trump has for decades owned luxury hotels, an industry with a strong immigrant labor force.
A former Trump administration official added that throughout his first term, Mr. Trump often heard concerns from some Republicans from rural states about how the immigration crackdown would hurt the agricultural industry.
The decision to scale back operations at work sites comes at a crucial time, and the implications of the guidance are still to be determined on the ground. The guidance did not appear to rule out raids at work sites in other industries, like the one at a garment factory in Los Angeles that sparked the protests.
In recent weeks, Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff, has publicly pushed for a “minimum” of 3,000 arrests per day.
Following Mr. Miller’s comments, arrests shot up to over 2,000 a day last week, and in recent days and weeks, ICE officials have conducted operations at restaurants, factories and business across the country.
One Department of Homeland Security official with knowledge of the email said that agents had felt the pressure for more arrests and that the guidance took them by surprise. Agents were still digesting the long-term implications without a direct signal from the White House about how to carry out the new guidance, the official said.
One Department of Homeland Security official with knowledge of the email said that agents had felt the pressure for more arrests and that the guidance took them by surprise. Agents were still digesting the long-term implications without a direct signal from the White House about how to carry out the new guidance, the official said.
Mr. King seemed to acknowledge that the new guidance would hurt the quest for higher numbers of arrests.
“We acknowledge that by taking this off the table, that we are eliminating a significant # of potential targets,” he wrote.
My How Things Have Changed
On June 11, the New York Times posted Under Pressure From the White House, ICE Seeks New Ways to Ramp Up Arrests
Immigration and Customs Enforcement is carrying out workplace raids across the country like the one in the garment district of Los Angeles last week that kicked off protests and a vast federal response. The agency is staggering shifts so agents are available seven days a week to try to meet arrest goals and asking criminal investigators who usually focus on issues like human trafficking to help identify targets. It is also asking the public to call in tips to report illegal immigration.
ICE’s work is being aided by a new mapping app that locates people with deportation orders who can be swiftly expelled, drawn from data housed in agencies across the government, according to documents obtained by The New York Times.
TACO Trump Backs Down on Farm and Hotel Worker Deportations
I believe I was among the first to report this shift in my June 13 post TACO Trump Backs Down on Farm and Hotel Worker Deportations
Trump is suddenly worried about “impossible to replace hotel workers”.
I Told You So
I wonder what the suck-ups, deport them all economic clowns, and bigots will have to say about this I told you so.
Well strike that. I know what the bigots will say and that is still deport them all. Bigots are what they are.
The Trump Is never wrong suck-ups will seemingly have a more difficult time, but I know how that goes: He was right then and right now and there never was an issue because this was a somehow a brilliant 5D move.
The vocal economic Trumpian clowns will have the toughest time.
Hopefully, this is a start of something sane. Meanwhile, I am pleased to report that Trump is suddenly worried about “impossible to replace hotel workers“.
By the way, skilled construction and trade workers are a much bigger issue than skilled hotel workers.
So carry this thought process through to the logical conclusion which is “Mercy! We suddenly need a deal for dreamers and focus on deporting criminals.“
As Trump is very fond of saying, “Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
I have finished an economic analysis of the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) that deporting them all would have an $1.5 trillion economic benefit over 10 years.
It contains huge errors and only looks at savings while ignoring hits to GDP and inflation.
I will comment on that later this weekend or Monday. Meanwhile, some semblance of sanity prevails.
MAGA Cheers the Gestapo Tactics that Sparked the LA Riots
On June 10, I commented MAGA Cheers the Gestapo Tactics that Sparked the LA Riots
I do not use the word Gestapo lightly. Let’s discuss the charge.
On June 10, the Wall Street Journal commented The L.A. Riots Hand Republicans a Political Edge.
I thought the opposite but did not comment. Today, I am sure it’s the opposite.
There’s plenty of blame to go around, but heavy-handed government actions tend to backfire.
Newsom and Trump got the battle they wanted and the nation suffered for both of their petty ways.
Then protests erupted elsewhere, and Republican Senators and Governors had enough. TACO Trump backed down.
The Softer Side of Trump
On November, 11. 2014, the Wall Street Journal discussed Trump’s Mass Deportation Promise
Speaking Monday on Fox News, Mr. Homan said the priority will be “public-safety threats and national-security threats,” as well as migrants who “had due process” and “their federal judge said ‘you must go home,’ and they didn’t.”
Good to hear, and add what Mr. Homan told “60 Minutes” last month. “It’s not going to be a mass sweep of neighborhoods,” he said.
Instead he said Mr. Trump’s plan would involve “targeted arrests,” and eventually “worksite enforcement operations.” If officers making an arrest also find an undocumented grandma in the house, will they detain her? “It depends,” Mr. Homan said. “Let the judge decide.”
Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers, including Mr. Miller, have talked about mass deportation in sweeping terms. But enforcement priorities are up to the President, and Mr. Trump has suggested he isn’t interested in illegal grandmothers.
“We have a lot of good people in this country, and we have to do something about it,” Mr. Trump said. “This has been going on for a long time. It’s a complicated subject.” He declined to specify whom he’d deport: “I don’t want to go too much into clarification, because the nicer I become, the more people that come over illegally.” Yet after stringent talk about deterrence, he ended with nuance: “There are some human questions that get in the way of being perfect, and we have to have the heart, too.”
And in December …
Trump said in a recent interview with NBC, that he wanted to work with Democrats to come up with legislation to protect Dreamers, immigrants in the U.S. illegally who were brought as children, from deportation.
Key Trump and Homan Statements
- Homan: Mr. Trump’s plan would involve “targeted arrests.”
- Trump: “We have a lot of good people in this country, and we have to do something about it.”
- Trump: “This has been going on for a long time. It’s a complicated subject.”
- Trump said he wanted to work with Democrats to come up with legislation to protect Dreamers, immigrants in the U.S. illegally who were brought as children, from deportation.
However, backers of hardline immigration policies view an exemption for Dreamers, who often have bipartisan support, as a slippery slope.
Unfortunately, Miller won out with deport them all madness.
Trump Says Dreamers Should Stay!
On December 9, 2024, I noted On Meet the Press, Trump Said He “Wants the Illegal Dreamers to Stay”
Trump’s interview on Meet the Press sounds exactly like the deportation strategy I proposed.
Partial Interview Transcript (Emphasis Mine)
Kristen Welker:
What about dreamers, sir? Dreamers, who were brought to this country illegally as children. You said once back in 2017 they, quote, “Shouldn’t be very worried about being deported.” Should they be worried now?President-Elect Trump:
The dreamers are going to come later, and we have to do something about the dreamers because these are people that have been brought here at a very young age. And many of these are middle-aged people now. They don’t even speak the language of their country. And yes, we’re going to do something about the dreamers. And —Kristen Welker:
What does that mean? What are you going to do?President-Elect Trump:
I will work with the Democrats on a plan. And if we can come up with a plan, but the Democrats have made it very, very difficult to do anything. Republicans are very open to the dreamers. The dreamers, we’re talking many years ago they were brought into this country. Many years ago. Some of them are no longer young people. And in many cases, they’ve become successful. They have great jobs. In some cases they have small businesses. Some cases they might have large businesses. And we’re going to have to do something with them.Kristen Welker:
You want them to be able to stay, that’s what you’re saying?President-Elect Trump:
I do. I want to be able to work something out, and it should’ve been able to be worked out over the last three or four years and it never got worked out. You know, Biden could’ve done it because he controlled, you know, Congress to a certain extent, right? He could’ve done something, but they didn’t do it. I never understood why because they always seemed to want to do it, but then when it comes down to it, they don’t. I think we can work with the Democrats and work something out.
Missed Opportunity
It did not take long for Trump’s bravado, Gestapo tactics, and economic ignorance to blow up in his face, about 4 days.
We should all cheer because the sooner the better with less economic damage.
Now we have a return to some semblance of sanity. But it comes as a missed opportunity for leadership.
Trump had a golden opportunity to work out a deal for Dreamers and lead the nation forward.
A reasonable deal would be green cards for long term immigrants in return for help from states to go after criminals.
I have been working on post about a deal framework. It also includes ideas to stop tax evasion by employers who pay illegal immigrants in cash.
Instead, here we are, with zero leadership and TACO Trump backed down without any concessions from Democrats.
At least it’s better than mindless deportations.
I contend, we should change course. Admit political defeat and start programs, maybe even military or public service (also include learning some civics maybe), for these people to either get out of the country or earn their citizenship someway. I just don’t understand the viciousness with which we demand our own way so often.
Ah, apparently they’re needed to do the jobs bourgeois progressives basement dwellers won’t do, until AI robotics for picking straw flowers, latrine cleaning, and egg flipping at Mar E Lago can be implemented, assuming the electrical grids don’t crash during typical weather events while digital mining bitcoins during net 0 CO2.
“It also includes ideas to stop tax evasion by employers who pay illegal immigrants in cash.”
It will never be implemented or even passed, as long as the employers are paying the Senators and Representatives in cash.
People have problems navigating the currents of figurative and literal language. Deport them all? Hyperbole. Never was going to happen. Do the math, math can be very useful. Deport criminals? That could happen, but as we see the courts are stuck in hyperbole and would rather dig in their heels and keep the criminals. Reduce the flow of illegal border crossings to a trickle? That seems to be working. Which then leads us back to questions of why Trump has majority hispanic support for his immigration moves. Why? As a bonus question, ask yourselves about current riots in Northern Ireland.
Is it really surprising when he can’t get US workers at MAL….
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacheverson/2025/06/12/trump-organization-foreign-workers-visa-hiring-mar-a-lago-golf-clubs-winery/
Trump’s June 14 spectacle isn’t just a parade; it is a flagrant exploitation of the military for personal and political gain, something we, who fought in America’s unnecessary and immoral wars, know so well.
Hey I got hotel employee ID badges to sell
LOL
Hahahaha.
The unprecedented protests are working.
Sure they are.
That’s $150 billion/year. it’s actually not that large a number based on a 30T economy but as they say $150B here and a $150B there and soon we’ll be talking about real money!.
It is over 10 year but factors in neither inflation nor the loss in GDP.
Flawed in may other ways.
But that is the key report deport them all advocates use.
Curiously, I accepted their numbers straight up, with many FAIR-favorable assumption, one of which is funny.
I accepted homeland security estimates of the cost to deport each individual. Since when are government cost estimates of anything ever low?
Even doing that, the cost of deportation was net negative.
I doubt the benefit is $150 billion a year, but nonetheless there is still a net benefit. Fears of inflation are overblown, as I tried to outline in comments I made in the “TACO” article, yesterday. There are 100+ million people of working age in this country, and a minimum of 10 million of them are able bodied and not working because of economic distortions due to subsidies that allow them not to work. Getting rid of all the economically harmful subsidies in this country needs to be the first step to return to a non-financialized economy, where debt-to-GDP is much lower.
There is a net LOSS.
The idiotic report only looked at benefits not costs, not costs nor loss of GDP.
Not with a ramp up of AI and robotics, and a decrease in regulation, as I clearly stated yesterday. Furthermore, I pointed out yesterday that depotation would be deflationary in the short run, due to decreased illegal immigrant consumption outweighing any benefit illegal immigrants bring to supressing wages. In the short run, deporting illegal immigrants would indeed be a hit to GDP, but they would also bring disinflation.
There are 44 million renter households in the USA, and 10 million illegal immigrants. Well, vacancies would go up dramatically if they were all deported tomorrow, pushing down rents. CPI shelter inflation would go strongly negative, whereas shelter inflation has been the main contributor to CPI for years now, as you have reported on for years now. Keep those blinders on though. They appear to be working great for you.
PS Just remeber, illegal immigrant consumption contributes to GDP in three parts: (1) diect earnings, which is what they get paid for their work, (2) available credit, which includes credit cards, BNPL, auto loans, and (before May 25, 2025) FHA home loans, etc., (3) government expenditures on behalf of immigrants, which includes Medicaid, SNAP, Direct Cash assistance, housing, etc.
So again, illegal immigrant consumption dwarfs any benefit they may bring to lowering wage pressure. Illegal immigrants *cause* inflation on net, contrary to popular belief that they “only prevent inflation with their low wages”. That is simplistic thinking spewed by politicians, who rarely have our best interests at heart, at this point in history.
And where do a lot of their earnings go? Back to their home countries via Western Union & Moneygram
The USA is *still* trying to catch up with the supply shock caused by Biden admitting 10+ million illegal immigrants over the extremely short time span of three years. Had it happened over ten or twelve years, the inflation profile would have been extremely different. Massive illegal immigration is a big contributor to economic indicators failing to “work” anymore.
… 100+ million people of working age not in labor force…
Sorry for the omission.
It’s all an academic exercise. As noted by recent developments, no business owner wants to lose access to cheap wage slaves, no one and Trump will oblige. No one wants to pay higher prices for anything. This week alone people have been complaining about high prices of electricians, plumbers, insurance, etc. and the cost of ALL of those things will only go up without cheap labor.
Of course, Ann thinks robots will fix everything so let’s see it happen. I’d love for my equities to only return higher shareholder value with no labor expense anywhere. It’s all pure profits and shareholder returns from here! Bring it on!
It turns out the real dreamers are the ones that think immigrants are going to go away.
As I keep repeating, in 10-20 years when an AI becomes world Emperor, all national borders will be eliminated.
Perhaps the NYT report is true but since it is the NYT about Trump, I’m prompted to ask if the report is accurate/true. I appreciate your (MISH) insightful analysis, reporting and commentary but when you base it upon anti-Trump sources, I find myself less likely to finish an article without corroboration. And, if the corroboration is in the midst of your report, since I find myself unmotivated to finish it, I would miss it. Please consider including any corroboration in the initial headline with the headline. That would help. Thanks, Mark
Look this is confirmed everywhere and I am not going to make 200 character title to satisfy your request.
If the NYT is making stuff up, it is obvious Trump would be blasting the report to smithereens.
You appear to have a strong dose of either TDS or confirmation bias seeking only news outlets that say what you want.
I have the history of the NYT relative to the Trump Russian Collusion hoax. Should I be derided for their purposed failings or should they?
Only needs a smaller font, problem solved.
Domestic raids are no longer needed as a distraction during the start of the US war against Iran.
MAGA isn’t fracturing over anything. MAGA is a mentality that nothing can change, alter, deviate or dissuade. It’s a core American belief worth fighting for until the grave.
I saw the clowns out protesting today, they were literally the people in society that already get laughed at.
Democrats haven’t been this mad since Republicans freed the slaves!
Tucker Carlson has a huge cult following and he’s not happy. I guess Tucker is a RINO now or Trump will give him some label along with Elon? MAGA is breaking into 1000 little pieces over war, immigration, debt, deficits, green energy credits, medicaid, and pretty much everything happening these days.
https://www.mediaite.com/opinion/maga-factions-breaking-apart-over-israel-strike-trump-is-cheerleading/
The most striking voice of dissent came from Tucker Carlson. The former Fox News host, now a high-profile independent media figure, sounded the alarm in his newsletter, warning of “impending war,” blaming Trump for being complicit and ridiculing the idea that the U.S. wasn’t involved in the strikes. He didn’t stop there.
Carlson torched his former employer and several old colleagues, calling out Rupert Murdoch, Sean Hannity, and Mark Levin by name, branding them “warmongers.” In a blistering post, he wrote:
“The real divide isn’t between people who support Israel and those who support Iran or the Palestinians. The real divide is between those who casually encourage violence, and those who seek to prevent it — between warmongers and peacemakers.”
Gotta run and restock the popcorn shelf. Down to my last 3 bags!
War is money. BIG money
Agree, my oil stocks are up bigly. A few more oil fields getting destroyed will send them to the moon!
To all those here who say “got popcorn?”, proceed to the La Grange Theater in Illinois for the no kings protests outside and get it while it lasts.
You need a $10 to get in. I thought it was in Texas.
MAGA is a cult and is detrimental to human existence.
When MAGA is gone progress in America may be possible again.
If you want tasty TACOs at your favorite eatery, then you need the big TACO to do his thing.
Long live the TACO!
MAGA is already fracturing over Israel v Iran and now this?
What’s not to love? Everyone loves tacos!
soft tacos for the worker bee sympathizers…
hard tacos for the send in the troops, shoot…
and ask questions later types.
There is a TACO Trump for every occasion.
I’m not surprised, because Trump has always supported cheap immigration labor to drive down labor costs for businesses. He never touched the “guest worker” visas for tech/hospitality workers.
The ICE raids were just theater. Hilton is safe in their business model of employing illegal workers.
If there was an actual crackdown on employment of illegal workers, a lot of illegals would self deport. There’s no cost to deport people who leave on their own.
Actually, when the economies of Mexico and others improved in the late 2010s, a lot of illegals left the US to go back home voluntarily.
<<cheap immigration labor>>
Mish supports that too. Personally I’m totally against it. If cheap labor was the answer, Zimbabwe would be an economic powerhouse.
But at the end of the day, quality of life is what matters, and it’s not only materialistic. Greece was poor in the 40s – 80s, but it was one the highest-trust societies in the world, with one of the lowest crime rates and suicide rates.
It was culture. And you’re not doing anything good to culture by opening the borders to the worst that other countries have to offer – and in fact, they export them because they don’t need them (US immigration policy was the opposite of that, for decades). North Europeans are finding that out, and look what’s going on now in the Netherlands, in Denmark, while much of Paris has become a dumpster.
See, something Trump and Governor Fatso Pritzker Hyatt can agree on! They’ll leave the light on for you!
What’s more American than unequal enforcement of the law based on political corruption?
I guess ICE will have to go back to raiding hospitals, schools and daycare centers since that’s where all the criminals are hiding.
TACO has to maintain his reputation by always capitulating on every decision he makes without giving any serious thought to the likely results. In this case, it hit closer to home as his businesses were losing employees as a direct result of another of his ill-fated policies.
I am certain no one raided his businesses. But I did wonder what ICE would find if they raided Mar-a-Lago.
Big donors and Republican governors complained. That we can easily assume.
I am sure you are wrong. All GOPers support “enforcing the law”.
Except when it comes to January 6 then breaking the law is ok.
Not when enforcing it, hits their wallets.