Strait of Hormuz opening this month? 
A Debate Over the Strait and Demand Destruction
Fat Pitch
In their latest oil report, J.P. Morgan reiterates that their base case continues to assume the Strait reopens in June. They previously anticipated this happening “one way or another,” and despite the lack of an official agreement, they are refusing to budge on that timeline.
Because the blockade has persisted, they’ve officially updated their projected trajectory for global inventory usage. The timeline has shifted out by one month: JPM now explicitly notes that they expect visible inventories to reach critical stress levels in late June, approaching absolute operational floor levels by September.
Right now, both paper and physical markets appear incredibly comfortable with this prolonged closure. Volatility has collapsed, and Dated Brent’s physical premium over front-month futures has retraced from a frantic $36 in April to just $2 today.
Why? A combination of clandestine “hopping” vessels spoofing transponders, upside supply surprises from Brazil and Venezuela, and massive demand destruction (led by China taking a 3.8 mbd import hit) has cushioned the blow.
But this calm depends entirely on the calendar.
JPM warns that the alternative path is far less comfortable. If their June reopening assumption fails, each additional month of closure will lift average Brent prices by roughly $5 in 3Q26 and a massive $15 in 4Q26, driven by accelerating inventory depletion.
Conclusion: of course sell oil and buy $SPCX on track to achieve 1 trillion EBITDA any minute now.
The Wrong Question
Art Berman is correct that “When will Iran make a deal?” is the wrong question.
But he flunks the right question.
Berman’s Proposed Right Question
Q: Berman’s Proposed Right Question: “What does Iran need that it doesn’t already have?”
A: Berman’s Proposed Answer: Not much.
That’s ridiculous. Iran is in hyperinflation pain, people are suffering, and it is short of hard cash.
However, Iran has a shown propensity to ignore pain. Trump, by contrast, and like all bullies, is susceptible to pain. And Trump, unlike Iran, has midterm elections to worry about.
The True Right Question
Q: How much more pain can Trump put up with?
A: No one knows.
Unknown is where we will be until Trump capitulates.
I agree with JP Morgan that Trump will open the strait. But it won’t be by force. It will be by capitulation, when Trump has had enough.
What complicates the setup are Trump’s own previous statements on release of funds and surrender demands.
In addition, Trump wants to appease the warmongers, those who were against the war, and Israel simultaneously.
That’s mission impossible.
Iran Not on Verge of Collapse
I side with Brett. But that’s not the right question anyway.
What would force Trump’s hand is the correct line of thinking.
Trump will capitulate is my base position. Time is on Iran’s side. But if I am wrong, my fallback position is a catastrophic war.
In my alternate scenario, Iran would go after the region’s desalinization plants and oil infrastructure.
Iran has escalation capability well beyond what Trump can do. This is why we are in a ceasefire now, and why Trump repeatedly backs off threats.
Expect Surrender or a Catastrophic War
$300 billion was an opening salvo to make $30 billion look great.
Trump will wave the white flag and brag about it because Iran is not going to capitulate.
CENTCOM Lies
“All missiles intercepted” says CENTCOM.
Yeah right. Some missile were intercepted by the ground.
Timing
JP Morgan says they “expect visible inventories to reach critical stress levels in late June, approaching absolute operational floor levels by September.”
Q: Are June and September the right months?
A: Once again, nobody can say for sure.
But it’s not just “visible” inventories that matter. Does China have hidden inventories? Are we correctly counting inventories in the first place?
Real Shock Still Coming?
THE RESILIENCE THAT BOUGHT TIME
➡️ China slashed its oil imports by nearly 40 percent in May, offsetting up to a fifth of the lost supply.
➡️ The United States increased crude and fuel exports by more than 2 million barrels a day above last year’s average.
➡️ The Trump administration released 172 million barrels from strategic reserves at record speed, including 1.4 million barrels a day in a single week.
➡️ Gulf producers rerouted millions of barrels daily through pipelines to the Red Sea and Fujairah while a trickle of tankers still moved through the strait.THE BUFFERS RUNNING OUT
➡️ Global inventories are now drawing down at a record pace of 70 to 80 million barrels every single week.
➡️ US crude stocks have fallen to the lowest level in more than two decades.
➡️ Critical storage at Cushing, Oklahoma is approaching operational lows just as summer demand rises.
➡️ Analysts calculate the market has already lost the equivalent of a billion barrels of oil with no replacement in sight.THE BLOOMBERG WARNING
➡️ Greg Sharenow warned that you cannot keep tightening the system by 70 to 80 million barrels a week forever.
➡️ The buffers that absorbed the shock are now depleted and the market has little flexibility left.
➡️ Even relatively small new outages could trigger violent price spikes from here.
➡️ The anticipation of a quick peace deal has kept traders on the sidelines, but the physical hole in supply remains.
Goldman Sachs vs JP Morgan
The only way I see demand destruction bringing things into balance is a recession. That’s a statement, not a recession call.
But here is some other demand destruction, caused by high prices.
Question of the Day
Q: Will Brent crude hit $120+ before the end of 2026?
A: It depends on the timing of Trump’s surrender and what the true levels of oil reserves (seen and unseen) are.
Will the Strait Open this Year
Actually, it’s up to what deal is acceptable to both sides, but primarily the terms of Trump’s surrender.
Drop your sharpest analysis — I’m looking for a serious, high-signal discussion. No memes, no noise, no hype.
“We project the market to return to oversupply from September 2026 due to a lack of material damage to the regional oil infrastructure, rapid recovery in Middle East production, strong non-OPEC supply growth and potential OPEC output increases beyond pre-conflict quotas.”
There is no “high-signal” because there is no answer to many basic questions.
- Will the war escalate?
- What are the true levels of reserves?
- Will Trump and Iran make a deal before reserves hit critical levels?
- Are we in a guaranteed no global slowdown economy?
Fitch’s September projection presumes no war escalation, less damage than currently admitted, more oil inventories than widely believed, a quick reopening of the strait, sanctions off Iran, a meaningful ramp in Venezuela production, and no weakening global demand.
It’s a forecast that presumes everything will go right from here. Alternatively, demand destruction is so great we have oversupply by September.
It’s not physically impossible, but it is highly unlikely.
Trump’s Options Unchanged for Months
How everything plays out depends on what action Trump takes and when he takes it.
Trump still has the same three options he has had since the ceasefire started on April 7, 2026.
Trump’s Three Options
- Military Escalation
- Wait Iran Out
- Agree to a Deal Acceptable to Iran
Military Escalation Option Is Flawed
A military operation to remove Iran’s nuclear material could take years with no guarantee of success. Indeed, I would expect this to fail just like we failed in Afghanistan and Vietnam.
The US production of defense systems is running low. The US and the Mideast is defending against $30,000 drones with much more expensive options that are in short supply.
Importantly, it is Iran, not the US, with huge escalation threats. Iran, if attacked, could go after desalinization plants in the region. Literally, the entire nation of Saudi Arabia would have to evacuate in days if its desalinization plants were hit.
Trump seems resigned to the above facts, which is why a ceasefire is in place.
Trump has learned nothing from history. Iran has much higher tolerance for pain than Trump expected.
Never before has a blockade worked. It inevitably increases the resolve of those being attacked. In this case, Trump and Israel killed the Iranian leadership who were willing to negotiate.
Waiting Iran out is not an option because Iran has chosen to wait the US out. And Iran has a much higher tolerance for pain.
Agree to a Deal Acceptable to Iran
When you throw away every option that doesn’t work, you are left with options that will work. That is option three, no matter how distasteful.
It is Trump who is desperate for a deal, not Iran.
For discussion, please see Frustrated Trump Ups Terms for a Deal with Iran. What’s Going On?
Many see this as a sign of no deal. I suggest something else.
Also see Hello. We Are Again Discussing the Terms of Trump’s Surrender to Iran
It’s only a matter of time before Trump waves the white flag.
Note that a huge market pullback, if one is starting, will add more pressure on Trump even if oil stabilizes.
Regardless, there are many technical and fundamental reasons for oil to go in either direction from here.
What Are the Technical and Fundamental Outlooks for Oil Prices?
In case you missed it, please see What Are the Technical and Fundamental Outlooks for Oil Prices?
The technical picture is very clear, yet unresolved. There’s also a debate over reserves and fundamentals.
I discuss the technical picture as well as the Exxon view vs Anas Alhajji’s view on reserve drawdowns.
Alhajji says there is no crude drawdown. Click above link for discussion.
JP Morgan keeps getting it wrong, wrong, and wrong:
March 12 “JP Morgan says short the market until the Straight of Hormuz reopens”
May 13 “why JP Morgan says the Straight of Hormuz open by June 1”
May 11 “JP Morgan sees Brent staying in the low 100s even if Hormuz reopens “
Iran attacking Israel right now
That’s because Israel attacked Beirut.
I said multiple times Israel is at the core of if or if not a deal is made. I’ve also said Trump can’t control Israel just as he can’t control any other sovereign country.
This war now is pasted Trump and his efforts and sits with only two: Israel and Iran. And yet America waits in the wing to help when needed by it’s little Satan.
This will go on now till one or the other bends the knee.
There is no deal Iran can make that Israel would accept.
At the same time, but for Israel, there is no reason that the US and Iran could not live peacefully.
The lessons of USA’s post-WW2 conflicts are not lost on the Iranians. Meanwhile, these lessons are lost on Trump, who, probably stoked by recent quick wins, failed to enlist USA mass backing, and instead rolled the dice on shock and awe. He (we) lost on that one. And the citizens’ consent and patience was not built up properly. Dissent in Iran is not a factor, it seems, the way political impatience is in the USA. The shortened attention spans affliction bites back. USA voters may have tried an experiment in concentrating power in the presidency, to clear logjams and get longer-term strategies in place(?), but they got a leader with the shortest attention span in the country (except for his personal vendettas and pet paranoias).
Looks like some ‘make the market happy on monday’ headlines.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606071517
“Iran lawmaker says ships pay up to $2 million to cross Hormuz”
6hrs ago this was announced, and let’s see what Trump thinks he can do about.
Here is a self-check for all of you here, Including Mish, when making such projections as to the future of the Iran mess: WILL you put BIG MONEY behind your forecasts. It is a measure of your commitment and gauges how strongly you REALLY feel when making Forecasts.
By BIG MONEY: I mean 25% of your Liquid net worth! IF YOU HESITATE, then RE-THINK.
Are YOU making such bets? Talk is cheap, right? I am allocating my resources and “bets” based on my forecasts, yes. I don’t have to wander drunkenly into a casino and put everything on red or black. That is not a reasonable refection of people trying out thoughts in comments here.
I already have close to 50% of my stock portfolio positioned for this.
Just curious, do you have a general rule as to what percentage of cash to be in? I know before the war you had mentioned staying around 20-30%. I take it if oil goes well beyond $150 you might go to 70-80% cash? I’m currently closer to 30% as I believe there’s not much downside from here.
Yes. My normal cash position, which I use for day trading is 20-30%. As I see risk and volatility increase, I hold more cash. Currently I am 40-50% cash.
You are probably correct. If oil shortages cause a price spike as I expect, then I will take more profits in my core oil stock portfolio and raise cash to the 70-80% level.
The inevitable drop in demand will then bring oil prices back down again. And I will make use of that cash to look for bargains.
Thank you!
You’re welcome. Now we wait and see if the execs at Chevron and Exxon are correct about a price spike to $150 in the near future. It seems reasonable to me. In the meantime, I keep day trading the volatility.
Most likely scenario.
The current conflict continues indefinitely.
The strait never returns to free and open navigation. Iran collect fees from most ships. More oil bypasses the strait by pipeline where possible over the next decade.
Oil spikes to $150 in the next few months in order to crush demand. Then settles to the $90-$100 range going forward which keeps supply and demand better balanced.
I agree that the Strait traffic will never be “open” again. Toll collection has been normalized in the Gulf – expect to see additional variations of it, I think.
JPM is stupid. The strait won’t magically open in June. The calm in oil prices means less pressure to open the strait. Escalation is also far more possible than markets think because the US will never let Iran control the strait.
Iran already controls the Strait. The US has no ability to control Iran.
Yes, I meant the US will never accept this control. The world’s hegemon will not accept emerging in a worst position from a conflict with a middle power. So I think there is a good chance the US will escalate and try all it can militarily if Iran does not budge.
not to mention Israel
“The world’s hegemon will not accept emerging in a worst position from a conflict with a middle power.” OK, what about Afghanistan? Iraq? Vietnam? The Global War on Terror (plus the Global Financial Crisis) lowered or at least muddied our position in hard and soft power, and depleted our resources, I contend, on a historic scale.
As far as the empire is concerned, Iraq was a complete success.
They already control the Strait, lol.
Fitch ratings?
Let’s not forget that Fitch was giving AAA ratings to portfolios of “Liar Loans” which had no chance of being re-paid during the housing bubble.
Internally, they called those portfolios “stinking heaps of dung” and externally they took large rating fees so the portfolios could be sold to widows and orphans.
The Fitch position is laughable!
😉
Never before has a blockade worked. It inevitably increases the resolve of those being attacked. In this case, Trump and Israel killed the Iranian leadership who were willing to negotiate.
Two blockades in world history that were successful and both were by the US Navy.
Britain’s blockade of Germany in WW I while not THE determing factor that stopped Germany from losing the war it was a significant contributor.
Is this the same JP Morgan that firmly projects SpaceX revenues to be $500 Trillion by 2039 and by 2050 to own the solar system?
As to whether Iran or US can take more punishment… Zanjeer Zani: The act of self-flagellation using chains, occasionally attached with small blades or knives, to strike the back. This is intended to emulate the suffering and sacrifice of the martyrs at Karbala. Tatbir: practiced primarily by Shia Muslims, where individuals strike their own foreheads with swords or razors to draw blood.
Yah, I’m bettin’ on the Iranians.
“Zanjeer Zani: The act of self-flagellation …:”
Same argument (supposedly unshakeable warrior ethos) used about, and by, the Germans and Japanese in WW2. This was supposed to surmount their relative material deficits. But the difference now in favor of that argument, is the USA’s relative weakness: inability to apply nuke weapons or boots on the ground, both used in WW2 to force an end. And despite Hegseth’s fantasies, that ethos or motivation does not exist in enough concentration in the USA from our side to persist and hammer things to such an end. Summer disappointments in vacation plans are enough to deter consumers and force political shifts here.
Isn’t the Strait basically open if you pay the dues ?
Except for the American blockade …
No. Dues or no dues, Iran isn’t letting belligerent countries’ ships pass – American ships, Europeons’ ships etc.
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/06/nx-s1-5848595/israeli-airstrikes-kill-lebanese-army-officers
“Israeli airstrikes kill 9 including Lebanese army officers after ceasefire deal”
I think this is gonna escalate based on what Israel does alone nevermind what Trump does.
We’ve entered the true religious war stage of this war, and Trump cannot compel Israel to follow his orders. Israel is a sovereign state, and once the ball got rolling on its regional goals it’s gonna take either Israel or Iran to be put down before it stops.
So yeah I don’t believe a deal is coming this month.
Israel couldn’t do shit without the US. Trump could tell Israel what to do if he weren’t such a pussy.
Hence, “Operation Epstein Fury”
Q: How much more pain can Trump put up with?
A: No one knows.
Trump doesn’t have political pain as long as the other half of MAGA holds, Speaker Johnson can hold the defections so votes in the House pass critical resolutions,bills, etc..
He is not on the ballot in November but….
Economically he doesn’t care. He is making more money for himself and his criminal cronies than they did legitimately.
If protests due to the war or the economy become a social problem, that is why the $80B of new ICE prisons were built for.
As an 🍊, he is incapable of feeling pain. As for we the people… who cares?
Option 4 is that China and others get together and force the Trumpster to capitulate through global trade actions or supporting Irans defense. Once the world economy can’t handle the oil shortages anymore, they will have to do this, it wont just be a usa and iran problem at that point
He will Taco on that since he always backs down when the adversary isnt weak
Most optimistic Scenario.
Trump capitulates. Gives Iran their frozen funds and both sides sign an MOU. Iran agrees to open the strait within 30 days, remove mines, stop firing on ships. Israel stops attacking Lebanon, Gaza, Iran etc. Negotiations begin on nuclear, US withdrawal, etc.
Trapped tankers with 170 mb of oil leave the Gulf over those 30 days (compared to the pre war normal 450 mb over 30 days).
There are around two dozen empty tankers waiting outside the gulf to enter. Those could conceivably enter, fill from storage and exit within the 30 day timeframe, and carry another 50 mb of oil out. So 220 mb of oil exit, vs the normal 450 mb in the month of June.
The rest of the tankers that normally transit the Strait have rerouted all over the world (including the US) and are unavailable in the 30 day timeframe.
Which means oil production cannot even restart within the first 30 days because on-land storage remains full and tankers can’t get there to empty them.
After 30 days, there could be a normal flow of tanker traffic in and out of the strait (assuming ship owners, crew members, and insurance companies are willing) and if Iran gives up control of the strait (which I don’t expect). If normal tanker flow resumes then oil production can begin again. Best estimates are for a return of 70% of production within 3 months. Which means we are still missing 5 mbpd for those 3 months: July, August and September.
Which means June: loss of 230 mb. July, Aug, Sep loss of 150 mb per month.
Best estimates for the next 3 months are 90% of production. Meaning a loss of 50 mb per month for Oct, Nov Dec.
We have already lost over 1 billion barrels of production since the war began. And the best case scenario is to lose another 730 million barrels of production by year end.
So far we have been making up for the loss by drawing down storage and reserves. But we only have a few hundred million barrels of available storage left to draw down, not counting China. China, however, does not want to draw down much more of its strategic storage.
So we will not be able to make up for another 730 mb of lost production and prices will have to rise to balance supply and demand.
This is what Exxon and Chevron executives have been talking about. $150 oil by sometime in July.
Note: this is the best case scenario. All kinds of things can mess with it and make things much worse for much longer. A resumption in hostilities; or even a negotiation timeline longer than 30 days will only make things far worse than this best case scenario.
Thank you for your analysis, Papa, much appreciated. What you show solidifies in my mind higher prices for quit awhile. CVX and XOM are currently the same price as right before the war began, therefore I consider their prices a floor to trade off of.
I believe Iran doesn’t just want to hurt Trump, but also bring much pain to America. The last time they held us hostage they were in no hurry, lasted 444 days.
They are pretty pissed at America, and they have pretty good reasons to be. Having wounded the supreme leader and killing a good chunk of his immediate family in a sneak attack during ‘negotiations’ is gonna make the guy a little vengeful. The murder of 150 schoolchildren because we couldn’t be bothered to keep our intel up to date has everybody else pretty vengeful too.
They’re going to make themselves some justice.
Of course the world is pissed at America. Of course they should be.
The question is – what will they do about it? The people forced to pay “protection” to a mafia boss hate the boss, but still have to pay up, lest an “accident” befall them.
Maybe we could send a shadow government to negotiate with them like we did in 1980, knee-capping the elected regime.
It lasted 444 days because President Carter was a WIMP who was afraid to engage.
Yeah, well, it looks to me like Trump has wimped out as well.
You’re getting ahead of yourself. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet.
Carter tried, His rescue attempt ended with helicopters burning in the desert.
“I believe Iran doesn’t just want to hurt Trump, but also bring much pain to America. The last time they held us hostage they were in no hurry, lasted 444 days.”
The CIA and French security services had planted Khomeini as the their preferred replacement of the Shah BEFORE the Shaw resigned. But like so many other missions that eventually blowback on the US the CIA plot directly rebounded into the Ayatollah’s hands and the mullahs but the Agency’s prediction of a good outcome for the US did not remotely occur.
The duplicity of Trump on Iran started way before him. It happened in ‘53, ‘79, the Iran-Iraq war of furnishing chemicals that if compounded would produce chemical weapons for Saddam. If the war turned too much so Iraq would win, the US would assist Iran to create a balance. The fourth before Trump was Iran-Contra included Israel as the middleman broker for the US and Iran.
This is indeed a very optimistic scenario. Just to take one point, “Trapped tankers with 170 mb of oil leave the Gulf over those 30 days”. After 90 days of sitting still in warm stagnant waters, these ships’ bottoms have become highly fouled. I have read that they have become “artificial mobile reefs”. So even if they are allowed into ports now, it will take them substantially longer to get there. Their bottoms may need to be cleaned first. Hundreds of ships all needing cleaning simultaneously is just one of the innumerable problems being ignored.
Correct. So many things interfere with my scenario. I am not an optimist in this case. Just showing how the best case scenario is still bad.
Very good analysis. There are a couple thoughts that I have. Saudi Arabia could keep pumping 4 mln barrels to Yambu and at the same time load up 6-7 mln barrels through the strait empting fast any tank farm that they have. This would add 60mbpd from july. Before the war we were in oversupply (2mbpd?) but in your post you put 10 mbpd which I think you already included.
My scenario includes Saudi.
The 2mbpd of pre war oversupply gets offset by 4 years of future demand to refill global storage. And plans are being made to increase that storage capacity.
We also do not know if Gulf production capacity can return to prewar levels based on damage done.
And global fields and refineries have been running flat out, forgoing maintenance pauses. That maintenance will have to be done eventually; slowing production.
Yes….but you were painting the best possible scenario and I think that would includes very little or minor damages to the existing infrastructure as well as the possibility to the Saudi to export on both side of the arabic peninsula at full throttle.
Obviously there is almost no chance that this would happen….insurances and thanks owners will think 1000 times before sending their barges through the strait.
Someone was also reminding that we are entering in the hurracaine seasons and in Australia we have some strikes in LNG plants.
Yes. I was suggesting the “best case” scenario. Which still results in oil shortages and a price spike to crush demand. I certainly do not expect the best case scenario to unfold.
I have also posted a more realistic scenario later in this thread.
The truth always comes out!
Get some help.
I’m trying to help you and those in your camp to see reality.
Israel is attacking Lebanon.
Just as they have been attacking their neighbors and killing their theological enemies forever. The world would be a better placer without genocidal monsters like you!
Any questions?
I think the pesticides you’ve used in farming over the years have rotted whatever brain you might have originally had.
Israel is attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon (NOT Lebanon itself) BECAUSE Hezbollah continues to insist on shooting rockets into Northern Israel, making it impossible for residents to live there.
If hezbollah stops firing rockets into Northern Israel on a permanent basis, Israel will not have reason to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon. Easy peasy.
What do you think the US would do if Mexican cartels shot rockets into TX, AZ and NM on a daily basis?
The president of Lebanon is as useful as tits on a boar.
He certainly makes more pertinent comments than yourself.
What no one is talking about is the positioning one must make to profit from the situation, as bad as it may be. There are two scenarios here:
Perhaps some of you commenters should spend some time figuring out the best way to hedge and max profits from either scenario, everything else is cackling hens.
But don’t forget the one wildcard….
Do worry, Trump & Walrus will find a way to make things even worse.™
Or not. I love busting bubbles. POP!
idiotic for reasons explained many times
If you want $150 oil for a long time, escalate the war
It’s not a war. It’s a SMO! 😁
And your reasons are obviously not valid. Despite the extended blockage of oil from not only Iran but also other oil states that transport through the Strait, the price of oil seems to be going down, not up!
Matthew Continetti gave up the faith to marry Bill Kristal’s fugly daughter. What a loser.
I’m not sure if you’re right, but at least you know a bit of history. I remember my father talking about the “phony war.” It’s a shame that so many people try to be experts on politics and military action without knowing any history.
great post Mish I learned a lot thank you
thanks
If Iran attacked desalination plants, it would constitute genocide, but the UN would only squawk about it.
Genocide is the new Special Military Operation
Pop quiz: who posted this: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” if Iran failed to make a deal.
” … It followed his threats in recent days that he would be “blasting Iran into oblivion” and “back to the Stone Ages!!!” He said he would blow up bridges and civilian power plants, which experts in military law said could constitute a war crime. And on Easter morning, he wrote on his social media account: “Open the F——-in’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.” …”
https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-threats-civilization-war-crimes-758eb5cd680d7d275c4e1c38b2e01e6d
“The market keeps asking: “When will Iran make a deal?”
Wrong question”
The first question is what it will take for Israel to allow Trump to make a deal.
The second question is what assurances Trump will have to furnish to show he is dealing in good faith, as Iran would have to be foolish to believe a serial liar, con artist and sociopathic murderer of their children.
I don’t see them agreeing to anything until he’s ether dead or out of office… so a year, or 2.5 at the worst. They might stop hitting our bases if we quit hitting theirs.
If he gives in, they have no reason to trust that the deal will be kept.
Trump is our albatross now… even though he wakes up every now and then to poop and screech.
That albatross was killed in the poem. The POS, still alive, is no bird of good omen. The POS is our cement shoes.
Given the expericne with the JCPOA, which was ratified by the UNSC and became international law broken by the rogue US, Iran wants not a deal, which is not worth the ink of the 🍊’s marker, but a treaty ratified by the Senate that becomes Usonian law. Methinks that Iran would then be sorely disappointed for thinking that the US are a country where laws are respected.
I didn’t realize that JPM was in cohoots with taco?
The nuclear issue is a pretext. Many nations enrich uranium without problems.
Pakistan got the centrifuge technology from The Netherlands/Germany.
It’s about leaving Israel as the only functional power in the Middle East.
All other countries have now been taken out GWOT) except for the Sultan/Emir family tyrants.
Israel has no independent agency.
Israel assuredly has leverage over most of Congress, not to mention The Jeffrey Epstein Home Video Library, which is assuredly very spicy.
Very.
The whole thing is odd. Trump, the dictator-wannabe, didnt realize he was dealing with dictators, who dont care about the Iranian population or any “suffering” or a media to satisfy. Trump knows he has to fold just before the worldwide system hits “no turning back” levels, and likely that is a lot later than everyone thinks. I mean, it has been 96 days and the gas stations are all open and prices are dropping. Its two chickens who think they are playing chicken but they are really not. What it looks like is an oil-demand recession, which Trump will never announce.
Actually, it is US administrations that don’t care about their population nor about any hardships — Trump has even articulated this explicitly. The Iranian, Chinese, and Russian leadership listen quite a bit more carefully than the US regime does.
There is nothing in the news the last three months but this nonsense. What isnt happening is the continued surge in crude and wholesale gasoline prices. Its like Trump told all the energy CEOs to not raise prices or feel the wrath of his DOJ enforcers.
And what does TACO do about it? Why should he care?
When you exclude the impossible, you’re left with what’ll happen. I think waiting Iran out and coming to an agreement acceptable to Iran are both impossible. Therefore it’ll be military escalation, especially since Israel can kick it off. The fact that the escalation will fail is beside the point. I don’t think Iran will target Arab desalination. They’ll target Israel’s desalination and energy infrastructure of the GCC and Israel. Take out the Saudi east-west pipeline and their Red Sea port. Hit Israel’s offshore gas rigs. Etc.
I just ordered extra popcorn and butter!
Is that popcorn kosher for Behalotecha? I can see you’re hungry for dead meat JoJo, hungry as heck.
He’s a hungry hungry hebrew.
I think Trump will take the escalation option. We consider nuclear weapons off limits but Trump does not. He has never considered anybody or anything off limits to him.
Do you really believe the November election won’t be completely derailed by this administration? They know if they lose the House and the Senate they will be headed for prison before too long. They have no reason to follow the rule of law. Nothing is off limits and there doesn’t seem to be any checks or balances
There are far better options than the nuclear one if Trump really wants to escalate.
The ideal one would be to release a Small Pox epidemic in Iran. Doesn’t wreck any infrastructure/long term radiation issues, we have the vaccine (most of us already vaxed) and it pits Iranian people against each other as they’d fear their neighbor due to dying like everyone feared Covid only this one is deadly (added bonus that the leaders could easily be infected and die). As an added bonus not one country would risk getting oil from them or trading any goods into Iran since anyone who went there would be quarantined.
If Iran surrenders it’s easy to get vax to their population since everyone in the world has it, just need to make 90 million doses.
He would like the spectacle of using nukes. Cost effective too, since they are already built. He sees them as built to be used and doesn’t understand detente.
We should send them some nice blankets…
The US has its 250th birthday coming up on July 4, and there are the World Cup games culminating on July 19. Trump is not going to sully these events with a capitulation. Also, the high SPR draw down rate can be sustained at least to mid July, meaning US “pain” won’t increase until then. So my bet is on option 2, no deal, at least until then. Status quo (with a dribbling of ships through the Strait) for 6 weeks, then re-evaluate.
Trump can threaten us with having Kid Rock and Vanilla Ice perform, if we don’t behave.
Iran has been bullied by Britain, the US, and Israel since roughly WWII. One can easily imagine they have concluded that giving in to bullies just leads to more bullying. A lot of thoughtful anticipation & resourcefulness has gone into their defense & response to being sucker-punched by Bibi’s Bitch.
I think the Strait of Hormuz will remain under their control for quite a while.
There is also the factor that Iran has learned that no one is more dishonest and untrustworthy than a Israel-dominated US.
They are far more accustomed to the difficulties of war. Shortages, inflation, stupidity.
We are only accustomed to stupidity.
And you know what inflation brings? Disco. Prepare for panic and chaos.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZqqvrWCs3Q&list=RD9ZqqvrWCs3Q&start_radio=1&pp=ygUYZG9ubmEgc3VtbWVyIGkgZmVlbCBsb3ZloAcB0gcJCTgLAYcqIYzv&ra=m
I got a lot of action in those days. I think in the far back of my closet are some corresponding party clothes (with subsequent archaeological layers of clothes since). Bring it!
“JPM warns that the alternative path is far less comfortable. If their June reopening assumption fails, each additional month of closure will lift average Brent prices by roughly $5 in 3Q26 and a massive $15 in 4Q26, driven by accelerating inventory depletion.”
So if it’s not open by June Brent Oil will jump $5 bucks a month starting in July, and two months later in September inventories hit the floor?
That has to be the most optimistic price ramp in the thick of an oil supply shock crisis that I’ve ever seen.
And because of that I can only conclude these guys are full of it.
Is Fitch worse or better?
At least you can state what Fitch requires, however unlikely.
“Fitch’s September projection presumes no war escalation, less damage than currently admitted, more oil inventories than widely believed, a quick reopening of the strait, sanctions off Iran, a meaningful ramp in Venezuela production, and no weakening global demand.”
It seems things are heating up with Iran again ATM, and as I stated before I don’t see a cool down until Lebanon and Gaza see no more warning. The fact that the US has bombed a few places in Iran the last two days is by definition an escalation.
That said, IMO, there will be no deal made this month. And it’s loooking more and more that Iran wants to send a signal to not only America, but the rest of the world that this isn’t gonna end until Iran says so (aka Iran gets what it wants). Israel not standing down in Lebanon or Gaza means things can stay as is, or get worse, and last till September or even longer.
However, I agree with you that eventually Trump will end up making a deal with, which will favor Iran, and will only be done once Trump understands force wont work.
JPM talking their book.
Israel is the key. They need time to solidify their control of south Lebanon. They will not allow any sort of peace deal until then. Even then Netanyahu may want the war to continue to divert attention away from Lebanon & Gaza.
I think they are very quickly running into long-term problems. International public opinion will not let them get away with genocide. We have been brought up for generations on the story of Jewish genocide in world war II and now we’re watching Israeli genocide like it’s just doing business for Israel
Since when did Israel care about international public opinion? It’s not as if that stopped Israel’s genocide in Gaza.
As long as Israel’s American thug enables it, Israel will continue to act like The Brat From Endor.
Keep stomping your tiny feet and kicking your dog. Someone might pay attention to your rantings about Israel eventually.
Someday someone’s going to put that country out of our misery.
I am putting Israel concentration camps on my bingo card
How about the GENOCIDE committed by the Iranian Regime? They have killed and tortured millions upon millions of their own people over the past 48 years of their rein and no one says anything about this!
Hasbara
Israel has no independent agency.
they have the Epstein files.