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“Government in Sunshine” Emergency Fed Meeting on Monday to Discuss Inflation

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12 comments on “Government in Sunshine” Emergency Fed Meeting on Monday to Discuss Inflation

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Image courtesy of Federal Reserve 

Closed Board Meeting

The Fed will conduct a Closed Board Meeting on February 14, 2022, undoubtedly to discuss inflation (emphasis theirs).

Government in the Sunshine Meeting Notice

Advanced Notice of a Meeting under Expedited Procedures

It is anticipated that the closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 a.m. on Monday, February 14, 2022, will be held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 261b.7 of the Board’s Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board’s offices at 20th Street and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C.. The following items of official Board business are tentatively scheduled to be considered at that meeting.

Matter(s) to be Considered: 

1. Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.

Government in the Sunshine

I vote for full sunshine. Let the public in.

Since that will never happen, how about a full unedited transcript? 

It’s just after midnight Central on the 14th and the futures are calm. 

The bets have been placed and speculators have rolled back the odds of a double-hike in Match to 56%, down from over 90% on Thursday on the CPI data release.

See CPI Jumps Most Since February 1982, Up at Least 0.5% 9 Out of Eleven Months

Following the CPI release St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated in a Bloomberg video:

“I’d like to see 100 basis points in the bag by July 1. I was already more hawkish but I have pulled up dramatically what I think the committee should do.”

On that announcement the market put the odds of a double hike at 97%.

On Friday the I noted White House Issues “Imminent Threat” Warning on Russia Invading Ukraine and that’s when yields suddenly plunged and rate hike odds as well.

Will Powell do something or will he chastise Bullard for speaking his mind?

Regardless, the words government and sunshine don’t really mix well.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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Mike Shedlock

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12 Comments
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Dean_70
Dean_70
4 years ago
Based on the Fed actions they don’t understand what inflation is. Maybe their meeting should start with that discussion before moving onto how to deal with it.
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RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
“Will Powell do something or will he chastise Bullard for speaking his mind?”
For that matter, was Bullard speaking his mind? In August, 2014, Bullard said QE shouldn’t end, which goosed a slumping stock market to a new all time high. After which, when QE ended and Japan announced it was taking over, Bullard said his August remark was misunderstood, then several months after he said it.
One doesn’t wait several months to correct a misstatement.
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urtau
urtau
4 years ago
The Fed is data dependent.   They loudly announce an emergency meeting and use the “data” to determine what to do:
a)  If the stock market drop by less than 1.5% (as it’s looking right now), they go ahead and raise 0.25%.
b) If the stock market drops by 1.5%-2.5%, they announce no cut but considering accelerating the timescale for future actions
c)  If the stock market drops by 2.5-3.5%, they announce no cut, maintain the current plan and state that the Fed is confident they have all the necessary tools to combat inflation.
d) If the stock market drop by >3.5%, they announce no cut, and state that the underlying economy still has weakness, there are signs inflationary pressures are easing and geopolitical factors risk stalling the economy.
This is of course satirical, but is it really?
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Billy
Billy
4 years ago
Everyone knows that the markets are way too high. Ukraine might be the perfect excuse to blame a major correction on. In the mean time, the Fed will raise rates to “curb inflation” so it makes them look good. If something like that plays out it will be interesting to see how the news reports on it. I’m betting we’ll have a 25bps hike and if we go to war it will be stretched out to at least Biden’s re-election.
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whirlaway
whirlaway
4 years ago
Just bought a brokered 5-year CD at 1.90%   I expect even the most feeble rate hikes of 75 to 100 bps to break the markets in about 6 months to a year, and for that CD rate to go back down to 1% again.   
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
“Will the Fed hike or make excuses?”
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Yes
The notice was made last Thursday.  No doubt Powell and others have been canvassing Dimon and others of his ilk to gauge market reaction on various options.  No doubt option expiry this Friday will be discussed.
I’ll put a chip down on 25 bps raise.
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davidyjack
davidyjack
4 years ago
If it was not for the Russia situation then I would say they would raise by .25%.   Given the political uncertainty, they may just issue a statement that they have KEEN eye on inflation and will wait till next scheduled meeting to evaluate.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
My guess is they’ll just confirm they’re going to keep with their current plan.
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Scooot
Scooot
4 years ago
It’s ridiculous they’re still operating QE whist considering hiking and inflation. Will they discuss this as well? 
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KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
They’re going to stop QE in a few weeks. They probably made commitments with some primary dealers they have to abide by.
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Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
They might discuss inflation but they probably be discussing more immediate matters the Fed will have to do if indeed we have problems in the Ukraine. 
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Okienomics
Okienomics
4 years ago
By not conducting open meetings, it assures that only insiders get to know what’s happening behind closed doors.  Dimon would like to remind you, that’s why he’s richer than you.  Gods work, don’t you know?
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