Hybrid War Already Started
The Wall Street Journal reports Hybrid War Already Started.
U.S. officials are warning that Russia could be about to attack Ukraine. For many citizens in this embattled country, the assault has already begun.
Ukrainian officials say that Russia, which has positioned more than 100,000 troops around three sides of Ukraine, is stepping up a destabilization campaign involving cyberattacks, economic disruption and a new tactic: hundreds of fake bomb threats.
Russian forces and their proxies already control portions of Ukraine and frequent skirmish with government forces. The aim of Moscow’s intensifying hybrid campaign, Ukrainian officials say, is to weaken their country and sow panic, potentially provoking discontent and protests of the kind Russia fomented in eastern Ukraine in 2014 to justify its interventions there. U.S. and U.K. officials said last month they uncovered coup plots intended to install a puppet pro-Russian government.
The WSJ headline says a hybrid war has started. The first sentence says Russia “could” be ready to attack Ukraine. The third paragraph says Russians and their proxies already control portions of Ukraine.
What portions? Where? Who are the proxies?
Now the US claims Ukrainian lawmaker and television channel owner, Yevhen Murayev, is a potential puppet ruler who could be installed by the Russians.
What is the basis for that claim?
No Breakthrough
The Washington Post reports Russia-Ukraine tensions high as Biden-Putin call fails to yield a breakthrough
President Biden will speak to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky by phone Sunday as Western allies scramble to deter a possible Russian attack on Ukraine, as Moscow intensifies its pressure on NATO allies and Kyiv.
Zelensky’s spokesman Sergii Nykyforov confirmed the Biden-Zelensky call Sunday in a comment on Facebook. The Ukrainian president, seeking to avoid panic and damage to his country’s economy, has played down fears of an imminent Russian invasion and has shown irritation at increasingly dire U.S. warnings.
After the call between President Biden and Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Saturday produced no breakthrough, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will take his turn at averting a Russian invasion with meetings in Kyiv and Moscow.
Scholz, who has faced criticism that his government is not doing enough to support Ukraine, is due to meet Zelensky in Kyiv on Monday and with Putin in Moscow on Tuesday.
Stoking Panic
The Times of Israel reports Ukraine leader says warnings of imminent Russian invasion are stoking ‘panic’.
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that warnings of an imminent Russian attack on his country were stoking “panic” and demanded to see firm proof of a planned invasion.
Is that accurate?
It’s hard to assess given WSJ reports that a hybrid war has already started and Russia controls parts of Ukraine.
It’s unclear if the Journal is referring to Crimea or something else. By the way, Crimea is part of Russia, like it or not.
Ukraine’s Zelensky Wants to Fend Off Russia—and America, Too
Lending credence to the Times of Israel report is this WSJ headline: Ukraine’s Zelensky Wants to Fend Off Russia—and America, Too
With Russian military forces gathering on three sides of Ukraine last month, advisers to President Volodymyr Zelensky urged a low-key response. His top national security adviser, in a cellphone call, counseled him with two words: “Olympian calm.”
The following day, Mr. Zelensky addressed the nation on television and said the threat of war was no greater than any other time since Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded portions of the country in 2014.
Is that accurate?
If you believe every headline story then:
- War has started
- War is imminent
- Ukraine demands proof war is imminent
- Russia already controls portions of Ukraine
- Odds of war no greater than any time since 2014
Q&A on US Fear Stoking
Q: Is the US stoking fear?
A: Undoubtedly
Q: Is that helping?
Helping Whom?
Biden is in a win-win position by escalating fears.
If Russia invades he gets to say “I told you so.” If Russia doesn’t invade, Biden will claim his diplomacy and sanction threats staved off the invasion.
No Reason to Believe the US State Department
There is no reason anyone should have faith in what the US State Department says.
If anything, some of it is so preposterous you would be wise to discount everything they say.
Here is a video clip in point.
Note that any US allegation can be labeled as “declassified evidence” with no real evidence produced.
I covered “Alex Jones Territory” in depth in my report Olympian Calm in Ukraine Over Russia Invasion Threat vs US Hype and Panic.
Jake Sullivan, US State Department: “One possible option the Russians are considering, and which we made public today, involves the production of a propaganda video – a video with graphic scenes of false explosions depicting corpses, crisis actors, mourners, and images of destroyed locations, entirely fabricated.”
Reporter “This is Alex Jones Territory. What evidence do you have that there is some propaganda film in the making?“
It’s All Propaganda Now!
If you believe you know what’s going on, you are mistaken. And the more you believe you know what’s going on, the more you are a pawn in someone else’s game.
There are many reasons the US would lie, Ukraine would lie, and Russia would lie.
And what should you expect from a pack of liars other than a pack of lies?
Will Russia Invade?
I don’t know, nor do you, and importantly neither does the US state department which is the one and only believable thing they have said in this crisis.
Four Reasons Russia Won’t Invade
- Expense
- When people start dying, wars become very unpopular
- Russia would not be able to militarily hold Ukraine indefinitely
- If Russia wanted to hold more of Ukraine, it would have done so when it took back Crimea.
Despite the above rationale, dictators sometimes make very bad choices. If Putin does invade, he will have his reasons for doing so.
Propaganda War Has Started
The WSJ says a hybrid war already started. More accurately, the propaganda war is in full swing.
Escalating rhetoric does not seem to be helping.
But there are reasons for escalating propaganda, even if those reasons are no more than a self-serving “I told you so.”
Meanwhile, don’t delude yourself into thinking you know what will happen, because you don’t.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
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Mish
became a country when they decided they didn’t want to be part of the British
Empire anymore. The Ukraine has decided it doesn’t want to be in the Russian
Empire anymore either. Denying that the Ukraine doesn’t have to right to exist
when it does exist is a denial of reality. The only way for Russia to get back
the Ukraine would be to conquer it and Russia can’t do that anymore.
Waller
Tweeted this to me in response to my post and I commented back.
https://twitter.com/MishGEA/status/1493100680118104065
Expense – Putin could not care less about personal or national wealth, except to the extent he needs it to maintain power. Putin can maintain his power by force now. He can let Russians starve for a while, a long while if necessary. Empire for honor and glory, not balance sheet.
When people start dying, wars become very unpopular – The population will abide lots of dying as long as it believes its side is winning. For empire for honor and glory, people will bleed themselves. Just have to win.
Russia would not be able to militarily hold Ukraine indefinitely – Russia could install a puppet government to rule indefinitely if there is sufficient support for Russia in Ukraine. Russia can conquer. Conquering is not obsolete. USSR in Afghanistan is inapposite. Zero indigenous support for USSR. In Ukraine, with carrot and stick, Russia could find sufficient minority support to enable it to successfully suppress a sizeable majority opposition.
If Russia wanted to hold more of Ukraine, it would have done so when it took back Crimea. U.S. could have taken Baghdad after liberating Kuwait (liberty and Kuwait ?), but did not until later. Israel could have taken and occupied the West Bank in 1948 but didn’t until 1967. Similar arguments for and against, but different decisions. More, Putin has consolidated power internally and the west has become more divided. Can’t read too much into the scope of Putin’s first invasion. That was then and soon it will be now.
Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994 by the US, the UK, the Ukraine and
Russia guaranteeing Ukrainian security and their borders in exchange of
the Ukraine giving up their nuclear weapons?”