The idea is sure to annoy everyone for being too much or not enough. 
The Voluntary Export Ban
The Wall Street Journal reports Energy Secretary Hints at Voluntary Cap on Diesel Exports, Rather Than Ban
In an interview with WSJ Journal House on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, Wright said the administration wouldn’t stop all exports of diesel. He said the administration has to keep the world supplied with diesel but needs to change the trajectory of prices in the U.S.—and the plan would be voluntary.
“We’re trying to avoid a blunt hammer of a government policy, understanding the complexity of refining,” Wright said.
President Trump said Tuesday that the administration was considering restricting diesel exports, sending the oil-and-gas industry scrambling. It has been desperate to avoid a ban, warning that it risked creating a cascade of unintended consequences that would throttle supplies of diesel and gasoline in the U.S. and lead to higher prices.
Some industry lobbyists noted that discussing restrictions amongst refiners could potentially violate antitrust laws.
Industry trade groups have spoken out against potential restrictions in their most forceful stand against the administration since Trump’s return to the White House. The American Exploration & Production Council said “policymakers should reject this short-sighted approach and instead focus on solutions that will actually lower prices at the pump.”
Ben Cahill, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said it might be easier for the administration to eventually lift a cap on exports than a ban, which risks being stickier because undoing it would lift a swift—and unpopular—rebound in diesel prices.
“I think it makes it easier to explain what you’re doing,” he said.
Executives are frustrated that the administration appears to be scrambling at the last minute to figure out an export policy that the industry had spent months trying to map out, the people said.
Industry officials were repeatedly assured by Trump’s lieutenants that the president understood why export restrictions wouldn’t work.
“They should have done basic planning months ago, but they didn’t. Now they’re scrambling to figure out options,” one consultant said. “There’s a sense that they’re getting tired of this guy making big, swinging, haymaker moves.”
Export restrictions, even if they are limited, are bound to have effects up the energy chain, analysts say. Refiners facing restrictions would likely churn out less diesel, which means they would purchase less crude from oil producers.
How the Voluntary Export Ban Works In Theory
Q: A total ban won’t work but if it’s voluntary it will work. Why?
A: Trump says so.
Q: Do we have details?
A: No details needed. Trump says it will work.
Q: Will we avoid a blunt hammer of a government policy?
A: Yes, by making it voluntarily then browbeating the refiners into compliance.
Q: Will discussion of voluntary restrictions violate antitrust laws?
A: No one cares about such things.
Q: Is there a sense the industry is “getting tired of this guy making big, swinging, haymaker moves”?
A: That’s what fake news media wants you to believe.
Q: Will this be easy to explain?
A: Yes. Ben Cahill, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council explicitly stated “I think it makes it easier to explain what you’re doing.”
Q: What are we doing?
A: Pretending there is a solution that’s easy to explain and believable.
It’s Working Already
I am pleased to note that the price of diesel declined by $0.0059. That about 6-tenths of a penny.
Q: What did that take?
A: A decline in the price of crude from $106.75 to $92.04.
And people say there is no plan. Shocking. It’s no wonder reporters are banned.
Importantly, I hear prices will crash after the election. Meanwhile, is anyone investigating supertanker price gouging yet?
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Addendum – Schrodinger’s Export Ban
Export Ban
No Export Ban
Now the White House is calling a report in Politico that says the White House is preparing a 90-day diesel export ban ‘fake news’. The report cited 5 people familiar btu said the legal process was being worked out. Perhaps the thinking here is that they don’t want people front-running a ban, but Trump already tipped his hand so none of this makes any sense.
If the US does ban diesel exports, it would be a dire move that would permanently break the US reputation as a reliable supplier of commodities and commodity products. It would also invite retaliation.
That clears things up.
He’ll have diesel prices down 600% in a jiffy folks! Just uh, after midterms for some reason?
Meanwhile, the other clown’s (Bessent) Treasury Twist idea seems to have worked great too! 😀
Didn’t Hoover try a bunch of voluntary things that didn’t do very well?
Trump is making Hoover look competent at this point. It’s astounding.
Diesel has completed its 5 day 4th fractal decay (selling phase) of a 25 Aug 2026 to 22 Sept 2026 3/8/6/5 day : x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.6x 4-phase fractal subseries; the next diesel growth valuation subfractal series is underway.
A presidential ban (or restrictions) on US diesel exports at this time would, paradoxically, likely have only the immediate (before the midterms) effects of further raising gasoline prices.
Refiners will all say in harmonic unison: “Daddy Trump we don’t need to maximize profits for our share holders, our primary concern is satisfying you and your ego, what’s the price we can sell at?” Clearly this is how it will go.