What Does Halt All Traffic Mean?
This morning, I Decided to Research this Question:
https://twitter.com/MishGEA/status/1221588941335408640
I don’t Know Jim, good question.
China statements say “tours”
Other sources suggest “individuals”
So … Is it Tours or Individuals?
And what about those who visited China from other countries?
Not covered at all IMO. https://t.co/K5QEoTFXPG
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) January 27, 2020
Results below.
Lockdown? What Lockdown?
There is no lockdown in China, if you are wealthy.
Check out this Beijing Flight Schedule for today. Here’s the Wuhan Flight Schedule for today.
Lockdowns are for those with no money, not the wealthy.
Beijing Departures
- 25 flights on a page
- 5 pages for the 00:00-06:00 departures
- 26 pages for 06:00-12:00 departures
- 22 pages for the 12:00-18:00 Beijing departures
- 20 pages for the 18:00-00:00 departures
That’s about 1825 flights out of Beijing.
US and Canada Destinations From Beijing Today
New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Detroit, Anchorage, Newark, Vancouver
European Destinations From Beijing Today
Amsterdam, Istanbul, Paris, Prague, Milan, Moscow, Frankfort, Munich, Athens, Barcelona, Warsaw, Rome, Stockholm, London
Other International Destinations From Beijing Today
Sydney, Singapore, Melbourne, Abu Dahabi, Manila, Auckland, Hong Kong, Seoul, Macau, Osaka, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh, Taipei.
Flight Ban Starting Today?
Starting Monday
Bit too late.https://t.co/ewZIUoIiAx https://t.co/FfbLm33xfJ— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) January 25, 2020
No, that was a blatant lie by China.
Dereliction of Duty Everywhere
Earlier today Chris Martenson proclaimed “WHO is Derelict” on Coronavirus
WHO is the World Health Organization. Add to that list, the Center for Disease Control (CDC), Chinese officials, and other US health officials.
The sane thing to do was ban all flights from China days ago.
But more landed today and far more are scheduled for tomorrow. And that’s just from two cities. I did not check departures from Shanghai or other large Chinese cities.
Many of you know Chris Martenson from his economic website, Peak Prosperity.
But even those who do know him, may not be aware that his background includes a PhD in pathology.
If you have not done so already, please do yourself a favor and watch Chris Martenson’s Must See Video on the Coronavirus.
Addendum – Monday Departures From China
I can confirm arrivals in Hong Kong, Bangkok, Vancouver, Toronto, Seul, Delhi (India), Moscow, Viena, Macau, London, Taipei, New York, Osaka (Japan), Stockholm, Boston, Frankfort, Los Angeles, Singapore, Frankfort, Tokyo, Paris, San Francisco, and Amsterdam from Beijing.
Some planes to Los Angeles, Newark, Singapore, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Istanbul, and Sydney are in the air.
I only located 1 cancelled departure from Beijing out of roughly 1,800 flights. It was to Detroit. There could be more.
Many flights from Wuhan are cancelled. Others are marked as “unknown“. I now believe these unknown flights are cancelled.
I can confirm planes from Shanghai have arrived in Singapore, Bangkok, Manila, Paris, Prague, Amsterdam, Melbourne, Auckland, Sydney, Perth, Munich, Moscow, Tokyo, London, Seul, Osaka, Anchorage, Hong Kong, Ho Chi Minh City, Phnom Penh, Paris, Viena, London, Detroit, Chicago, New York, Toronto.
Wuhan may be locked down. The rest of China isn’t yet.
Addendum Two – Wuhan Not Locked Down Yet
Update Two on 2020-01-28
Wuhan Update: Many Planes Actually Made it Out of Wuhan Yesterday and Today
I deleted some comments on Wuhan that were inaccurate.
Today, I count at least 16 flights that left Wuhan yesterday and at least 18 today.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Those lists are just scheduled departures and arrivals, not real ones. They are made up months in advance. When you check the details, you find “N/A, or something like that. I sat on the flightradar24.com website for hours yesterday. Every time a flight was supposed to come or go at WUH, I watched. Nothing except a few air cargo planes.
We had the SARS scare years ago. Over a 2 year period, 774 died worldwide. During the year 2019, 90,000 people died from the common, everyday flu in America alone. Perhaps people are over reacting. I live in China now. We have lived through SARS, MERS, H1n1, avian flu, swine flue, and others. This all starting to sound like Greta.
Over the two-year period 2016-2017, there were a total of 1493 homicide victims just in the city of Chicago, according to the website heyjackass.com. On a per 100,000 population basis, there are many more American cities with higher murder rates. But don’t expect the US State Department to issue a travel advisory on visiting high crime American cities.
So what, a few thousand die, mostly the weakest and THAT will save on C O 2 emmissions and SAVE the world….a bit like Kamikazi
it is called Survival of the fittest…pop corn time…
Well then hope it’s not as a violent sickness as some reports are leaking out. As if your immune lol. Have a nice day.
Many if not most Americans have very low Vitamin D levels which can make them more vulnerable to a lot of illnesses. But this new virus is the crisis of the month.
I finally found a flight going out of Wuhan (WUH). It is air cargo (SF). It is necessary for medical supplies to be flown in.
O36955 /CSS6955
SF Airline
SF is one of the largest logistics companies in Asia.
The virus started a month ago. over 15,000 people have left Wuhan in this time. It is the Spring Festival (Chinese New year). People return to their home town to visit their families.
I have been monitoring Flightradar24.com for a while. They show no flights in or out of WUH for quite a while. We need somebody in Wuhan on the ground near the airport to see if any planes are actually coming or going, or if these are just scheduled flights in a computer.
That is a great point. However, the cat is already out of the bag and this virus is across China. I just had a student return from China last week. Not saying he has it, but my point is millions are entering/leaving China and this could easily spread more.
Viruses always travel globally Mish. If you are proposing stopping all travel it’s not going to happen.
That is not true, often they are contained. Add to that that barriers that slow their movement allow time to understand the virus and create vaccines. Already other countries are closing entry from source of epidemic, no-one is saying outright ban travel, but it is possible to have quarantine for those crossing boundaries, and national borders are one kind of obvious boundary that already have forms of vigilance.
The US has maybe 80 milliom foreign visitors a year, plus americans who travel abroad. Spanish flu infected a third of the global population, nowadays that would be maybe 2 billion people, or well over 100 million americans. So while we wait for some proper details on how severe nCoV is, and remembering that with modern travel peak infection numbers will be relatively fast, let’s try to imagine what you are saying means compared to restricting travel. If nCoV is severe as being made out, it means a year or two of national emergency and many casualties (but people get their international vacation and everything keeps turning like normal right?) vs. restricted travel and trying to contain any outbreaks that make it through.
You know what is likely to happen though, there will be pandemic and people won’t travel, plus the amount of restrictions might end up much higher.
Since yesterday, cases have gone from 2118 to 4474, and deaths have gone from 56 to 107. Number cured has only gone from 52 to 63. Almost all the growth has been from China. Macau, Singapore, Tiawan and Australia each reported another case.
The link you posted to the map of progress on the Coronavirus is apparently not being updated. Here is a more current link:
If that doesn’t work, start here:
Germany just announced their first confirmed case. China just reported about 1,400 new confirmed cases in the past 24 hours and 24 more deaths for 4,295 confirmed cases worldwide with 106 confirmed deaths.
It is still growing.
In other news I bought TVIX Friday afternoon due to all of the scary news and it went up over 20% today.
Good thing the president is occupied with threatening senators… he could really make this thing get out of hand.
Mish, do you want to comment on this:
Your Chance Of Developing Symptoms Or Dying From The Menacing Coronavirus That Now Threatens Global Human Populations Is 0.0000017482% Symptoms/ 0.0000001137% Death
By Bill Sardi
January 25, 2020
#1 I don’t know what the future holds…this might blow over or it might blow up.
#2 Lew Rockwell is kind of a BS website granted I base that on a couple of civil war articles that they had years ago. They had a pro-Confederate States of America article that was pure historical BS with lots of selected facts, lots of ignored facts, lots of BS, etc… As a person who has a master’s degree in history for studying the Civil War…I’ve never seen a more shameful article that was anti-intellectual.
#3 Your article you link to is also BS. For example…their numbers include CURRENT stats…this assumes that (A) China isn’t underreporting and (B) those infected and those that die won’t grow in number.
#4 Their math is wrong…probably because they are BSing for a point of view.
For example they say “Just in case you are worried, out of a population of 7+ billion people on Earth, your chance of developing symptoms from this corona-shaped cold virus is ~1 in millions and for death ~1 in hundreds of millions.”
7.8 Billion people (divided) by 81 deaths = 1 death per 96 million people.
96 million is a large number, but not “hundreds of millions” as Lew Rockwell BSes… more over…the death total could grow and could be underreported – see the spike in viral pneumonia deaths right before the outbreak in Wuhan that aren’t counted, but very well could have been Coronavirus.
#5 They are using global odds…which is different than Wuhan odds to anyone with a brain. What happens “if” an outbreak happens in your hometown as people travel about on planes? Do you still have global odds?
It’s bullshit
Yes, the odds are low but not that low. Reported cases are underestimated. Does not take in mutations, etc.
11 million=100%
1 mill= 10%
100 000 =1%
10 000= 0.1%
I have average math but this should be it.
Do you think there is 10 000 dead?
Black plague killed 30 million, estimate from 90 million.
I knew the name “Bill Sardi” sounded familiar, and I was trying to figure out where I had heard it before. Finally I remembered. He was making posts on a website fightaging.org, and he was recommending all sorts of supplements for life extension, and knocking medical orthodoxy. Rather than believing one of the prevailing theories of aging (damage, cross-links, amyloid, failing immune system, mitochondrial damage, hayflick limit, etc), he promoted the “excess mineralization” theory, something I have never seen from anyone else. I don’t know if he represents the medical supplement industry, or what, but he seems to always be recommending supplements. Here he recommends Vitamin C, D, E, ALA, NAC, Resveratrol, Quercitin, Zinc, and Garlic.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but in the end, my opinion was that his opinions made no sense, and he was a nut case. This article reinforces my opinion. He may be right that we won’t all die of it, but if so, I don’t believe it will be for the reasons he gives.
It’s better to be exposed to the virus, and thereby become immune to it, than to be isolated from it. But first, make sure your immune system is strong and consider taking supplements such as those listed here:
So far as I know there is no current evidence that having the disease creates immunity to re-infection at a later date.
It’s generally true that one acquires immunity to a pathogen after infection. Some ‘pathogens’ vary each year so you still catch colds as they mutate to something your antibodies don’t recognize.
Duh!
The world’s a progressive one, now.
Strong, powerful, well funded governments, tasked with banning mere equals from emitting soda bubbles and getting away from blood coughing pest victims, while simultaneously spending ever more resources on ensuring the connected get to preen around in Air Force One, is what it’s all about. As in, literally, to a T, all that progressivism is about.
Supports the theory that the Chinese Communist party is testing something / showing power.
The only positive I can imply from news there is still ongoing travel is, if disease experts knew for a fact this bug had a high mortality rate, then travel would not be allowed. Those planes would be turned around when they arrived at their destinations.
So either our government disease management officials worldwide are incompetent boobs, or the rate of very serious illness from 2019-nCoV must be pretty low. Take your pick.
Another possibility. There is no reliable data of mortality rate, due to China skewing all information from health to economics. Without data, how can any middlemen proclaim a travel ban?
Betting that it will turn out to be incompetence by government bureaucrats seems like a sure thing!
US State Department just raised its warning against travel to China asking that US travelers “reconsider” their plans. They also state, “Travelers should be prepared for travel restrictions to be put into effect with little or no advance notice.”
Perhaps the bureaucrats are just slow to get the restrictions put up.
Question: The official number of infections is around 3000, and the number of deaths is around 90. I get that. But the official number of “recovered” is 50-something. Does that mean the number of confirmed cases who walked out of the ICU or what? Seems like it would be hard to figure the number of people who recovered who never went to the hospital.
Extremely porous for those with money
What I find interesting is the number of countries wanting to evacuate their citizens out of the area–what about their quarantine?
And thousands of students from from the US and China returning from China this week–what about their quarantine?
I watched a youtube from a guy in China that had screen shots of various people bragging about how they evaded the quarantine line.
In other words, the so-called “containment” is BS.