It appears we are finally on the verge of a deal. Terms still unknown.
Series of Five Trump Posts
1: IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU! Apr 17, 2026, 7:06 AM
2: THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J.TRUMP Apr 17, 2026, Apr 17, 2026, 7:27 AM
3: The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear “Dust,” created by our great B2 Bombers – No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!! Thank you! President DJT Apr 17, 2026, 7:27 AM
4: Now that the Hormuz Strait situation is over, I received a call from NATO asking if we would need some help. I TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY, UNLESS THEY JUST WANT TO LOAD UP THEIR SHIPS WITH OIL. They were useless when needed, a Paper Tiger! President DJT Apr 17, 2026, 8:13 AM
5: Thank you to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar for your great bravery and help! President DONALD J. TRUMP Apr 17, 2026, 8:16 AM
6: Iran, with the help of the U.S.A., has removed, or is removing, all sea mines! Thank you! President DJT Apr 17, 2026, 8:20 AM
7: Again! This deal is not tied, in any way, to Lebanon, but we will, MAKE LEBANON GREAT AGAIN! Apr 17, 2026, 8:27 AM
Shippers Waiting for Clarity
In Live Updates, the Wall Street Journal reports Shippers Waiting for Clarity Before Sending Tankers Through Strait
Despite Iran’s announcement Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is open, commercial shippers were waiting for clarity and security guarantees. Shipowners and the oil industry have said they will wait for clear assurances from Iran that it won’t attack ships before resuming normal traffic through the strait, which prior to the war was about 130 ships a day.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said vessels should continue sailing through a designated route that crosses Iranian waters, in coordination with the Iranian army. He didn’t clarify whether Iran would stop demanding tolls as it has done in the past.
Most traffic through the strait was already using the Iranian-prescribed route. As of Thursday, data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence showed that 15 of 27 transits by large cargo ships through the strait since April 13 used the Iranian route. None used the non-Iranian route.
Oil prices plunged around 10% and stocks jumped after Iran’s foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” to commercial vessels. President Trump posted on Truth Social shortly afterward that the U.S.’s naval blockade on Iranian ports would “remain in full force.”
The comments came as a newly struck cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon appeared to be holding on its first day. The 10-day truce began at midnight local time after weeks of fighting between the Israeli military and the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Iran War Questions
Trump started this war on February 28, 2026.
Will this deal be any better than what Iran offered prior to the war?
Will this deal be any better than what Obama negotiated in 2015?
I believe will will soon have answers. However, the damaged infrastructure will still take years to repair.
$20 Billion Cash for Uranium
Axios has a “scoop” post U.S. considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran
The U.S. and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war, with one element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium, according to two U.S. officials and two additional sources briefed on the talks.
A top priority for the Trump administration is ensuring Iran can’t access the stockpile of nearly 2,000kg of enriched uranium buried in its underground nuclear facilities, in particular the 450kg enriched to 60% purity.
The latest number discussed by the U.S. and Iran is $20 billion, the sources said. One U.S. official said that was a U.S. proposal. The other U.S. official described the cash-for-uranium concept as “one of many discussions.”
Under a compromise proposal now under discussion, some of the highly enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the U.S., and some of it would be down-blended in Iran under international monitoring.
The intrigue: The three-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) the two sides are negotiating over also includes a “voluntary” moratorium on nuclear enrichment by Iran.
- The U.S. demanded in the last round of talks that Iran agree to a 20-year moratorium. Iran countered with five years. The mediators are still trying to close the gap.
- As part of the MOU, Iran would be allowed to have nuclear research reactors for the production of medical isotopes, but would pledge that all of its nuclear facilities would be above ground. The existing underground facilities would remain out of commission.
Trump told reporters on Thursday that Iran had agreed during the negotiations to commit to “a very, very powerful statement… that they will not have nuclear weapons.”
- He also said Iran agreed to give the U.S. “the nuclear dust,” referring to the enriched uranium stockpile.
- “We are very close to making a deal. If no deal, fire resumes,” Trump said.
- He made clear he was willing to extend the ceasefire beyond its April 21 expiration if needed.
What to watch: On Friday, the Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators will hold a meeting a “quad” meeting with Saudi officials on the sidelines of a diplomatic forum in Turkey.
I welcome a deal. But how good is it, and at what price to what was possible three months ago?
Trump chose war and much infrastructure in the region will take years to recover.
The stock market cheers (S&P up 1.2 percent), so does gold (up 1.8 percent), silver (up 5.5 percent), bitcoin (up 5.5 percent).
WTIC, US oil plunged 13.5 percent to 82.33.
Yet, the 30-year bond yield is down only 1 percent to 4.88 percent. From an inflation standpoint, that’s the real tell that all will not be smooth sailing.
The pirates, I mean, the US said that the blockade will continue even after the Strait is open.
TRUMP grabbed the Strait by the pu$$y
Markets should be falling, not rising, as the main street economic damage from all this is real. The markets are all “vibes” and have detached from reality.
“Peace In Our Time” – September 30, 1938
Not if the Zionist Epstein Club can help.
The strait was open before the war started. So we are currently back to zero except for all the money and lives wasted. This is progress in our new upside down world? Going forward is the US going to keep patrolling the strait? As soon as the troops go home Iran has control of the strait again by default.
It is a good strategy for Iran since now they can say that the US are actually the ones blocking the straight.
It will be interesting to see where the deal on the uranium lands. Trump lies like a sidewalk so we need to discount anything out of his mouth by 90%. Crazy that we tend to rely on what the Iranians say to get a more balanced picture of what is happening.
“Back to zero” and back to 50,000
Winning!
TRUMP finally put a leash on that rabid dog
TRUMP Bros absolutely feasting!
50,000 is all we should be talking about
LibTards on suicide watch
But seriously, those equity index charts are something to behold….almost like “a certain someone” intervened
If Trump is smart it’s over. Except for some transitory economic pain. Donald and Bibi’s little adventure was an unmitigated disaster. All this damage to America’s reputation and economic pain for probably something very close to the same deal as before the war.
Bond yields down 1% or 0.1%?
1% is huge.
Maybe it’s a secret deal.
Donald Trump is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life,
LOL!!!
Reading that Israel will probably create a false flag —to then say Iran has broken the Peace deal?
Seems Nuttanyoo Team will not allow Peace— as it’s not part of their Political Agenda. Time will Tell.
https://houseofsaud.com/trump-nuclear-dust-iran-silence/
Regardless, Iran was foolish to give up its leverage. “Put the gun down and then we’ll talk!”
The prior Ayatollahs decreed that nucelar weapons are immoral and sinful. Now that the prior Ayatollahs were killed, it remains to be seen if their current leader, whose Ayatollah father, wife and child were killed by the Epstein Club, will have the same religious stance.
A moratorium only delays another military action against Iran for enriching nuclear material to weapons grade. There’s no proof ALL underground nuclear facilities have been destroyed or even accounted for. There is nothing in the agreement preventing Iran from performing nuclear research and enrichment in another country. A third country has no obligation to enforce a deal between Iran and the US.
meanwhile another economic subject: who will clean the rooms?
https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Hotel-News/Historic-immigration-decline-could-damage-hotel-industry
I see your hotel labor plight and raise you restaurant labor plight.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/us/texas-restaurants-immigration-work-permits.html?unlocked_article_code=1.blA.HGSH.aFvd4g7vSfIN
But let’s be honest, it’s going to be bad across the board. I believe I heard the cries and screams from some home owners a few posts ago about the high labor costs of replacing AC units, Lol.
Stocks have soared for 17 straight years save for the 2 weeks of tariff nonsense in April 2025, the plandemic period, and I think a brief bit in 2018. The massive deficits have to go somewhere. We’ve only rallied about 13% in 11 trading days. At this point these moves all look manufactured–create a buying opportuntity, satisfy the buying opportunity. Lather, rinse, repeat. Unless and until those that have participated for 17 years are willing or forced to give up gains this will persist. Only way I see that happening is an ACTUAL recession, not expectations of one.
I mean the markets are up 1076% since the March 2009 low, as of today. Nearly 11x in 17 years….the very core of the k-shaped economy and, with a wide swath of the population invested in the game the chance that we’ll get policy unwilling to protect those gains at the expense of others, including future generations or even current cohorts that never benefitted from such continuous outsized returns is bascially 0 at this point.
15% annually for 17 straight years, basically. Vs 0% for t-bills for half of the priod. Sure.
Let’s see how fast gas prices go down lol.
Great day to buy back calls on XLE to pocket 80% profits on calls sold during oil surge. Don’t forget Trump still moving military assets into the region and I suspect it’s going to be a cruel summer.
I can make any wino look like a financial wizard, as long as that wino can continue to borrow and refinance.
Plandemic?
“Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A.”
This is how the hypothetical agreement will likely fail. Does anyone seriously believe Netanyahu will accept this edict from Trump? If Bibi wants to sabotage the agreement, bombing Lebanon is his path forward.
I give it 48 hours, maybe 72 hours max before Bibi has to scratch his death and destruction itch.
He’ll wait until after Shabbat
Nothing that Chabad couldn’t overlook.
Can anyone name a single treaty Israel did not violate since 1948?
Now are the news of the Hormuz real ? And if so that still does not fix the employment no money no jobs the repo market still frozen should I go on?…
good.
But I am sure Trump and his media verse will be crowing about this huge victory– which of course is just fixing what Trump broke to begin with. The strait was open a couple of months ago until Trump attacked Iran.
Well I called it yesterday, every time bond yields start spiking we get an announcement to juice markets.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/industrial-production-declines-0-5-percent-in-march-but-feb-revised-higher/
But Trump’s presidency has been a series of failures one after the other. What happened to those 20 million deportations? Only 1000 days left and then we get open borders again Lol.
Tariffs? Failure.
Affordable housing? Failure.
End of all wars? Failure.
Tame inflation? Failure.
Lower rates? Failure.
We’re not done yet, there is still more disasters to come so….
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
Well you realize you and most on this blog, and every blue state and sanctuary city, thwart the deportation policy then somehow blame him for not doing it. Sad but true. Most of the rest mentioned were already baked into the cake (despite his bombastic claims to the contrary) given that the game is now rigged to continue the enrichment policies we’ve seen bipartisanly over the deficit-spending decades. The easiest one on your list to take the guy to task for is the unnecessary Iran action. Massive own-goal. But, hey, a buy-the-dip opportunity for most who read this blog, the financial ramifiations to others bedamned. (and to those people killed, infrastructure destroyed..etc)
Affordable housing? You selling yours for less? Can you build one for less with 4,000 pages of buliding code and no one willing to sell their 3% mortgaged house or land they perceive as valuable?
Simply put, until and unless we get an actual recession without more deficit-spending-surplusses and zirp, nearly everything is on autopilot to financial ruin, regardless of party. Lower rates on your (his) list not coming true is a Godsend–we don’t need those again. We need some dang constraints somewhere and I don’t see any other than the pressure put on households by inflation.
The issue overall is the fluid, outlandish, sensationalized, bombastic claims made by the current politician, magnified by social media and the MAGA vs TDS charged crowds. The 1000 days left to a different brand of insanity is frightening culturally but, hey, we’ll get blue disasters instead of red ones then….including a continuation of financial ruin once we left any fiscal constraint 50+ years ago. This blog has found bad policy through blue and red times.
The inflation has always been baked in…your turtles know! usdebtclock.org knows. Policies are all geared toward it, it protects the status quo…and the bureacracy and political state love the runoff nature of status quo.
My take is though they say deflation hits everyone, inflation does as well but slowly burns for a LONG time enriching a swath before deflation MUST wipe out the unsupported largesse. This slow burn is an “unhappiness producer”…the complicity that 401ks/IRAs created in the middle class have extended the burn as they are now included in the passive gains only the uberwealthy used to enjoy. If/when those gains evaporate, things will get messy quickly.
You often take the retirees to task, can you imagine what things would look like if the SP were at, say, 5,000? You’d see spending sphincter-shut with rapidity. That cohort despite having social security, medicare and a 8x multiple in 17 years would act as if they were poor, the baby boom bitchers as I call them.
Until then the turtles are carrying lots of sloshing liquidity and money in those shells, buying less and less on the daily.
With the straight open now you shouldn’t have to swim east.
Lol. Come on Bill. What power do you think I have to “thwart” anything? I’m a private citizen, I have no control over any government city, county, state, federal whatsoever. Heck I didn’t even go protest since I’m busy working.
I point out Trump’s ineffectiveness because he never had the power to do anything about it, he just lied to suckers that thought he would do something about it.
I’ve pointed this out over and over again. This country runs on slave labor (mostly immigrants) and everyone wants it this way. Businesses get cheap labor and they avoid FICA, other taxes, regulations, etc. and the “consumer” benefits from cheaper prices and access to slaves.
Isn’t it strange that when democrats or republicans are in control no one ever passes immigration reform.
https://www.kcur.org/environment-agriculture/2026-04-13/h-2a-visas-foreign-ag-workers
Project 2025 wants to end the H-2A, well good luck with inflation if that happens.
All I can do is profit from whatever situation I find myself in….that’s it.
King taco has stopped a 10th world war. Hail to the taco!