Trump is much better at manipulating futures than negotiating deals.
Friday morning the markets were abuzz with Trump’s announcement of a deal. The stock market and goal soared, and oil prices.
As usual thee past few weeks, the bond market moved little. The bond market had things right.
Strait Definitely Not Open
The Wall Street Journal reports Ships Attacked Near Strait of Hormuz After Iran’s Military Denies It Reopened
Commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz came under attack for the first time since the cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran, after Iran’s military contradicted declarations by the U.S. and Iranian governments that the strategic waterway had reopened.
Revolutionary Guards Navy Warns Ships It Will ‘Destroy’ Vessels Attempting to Cross Strait
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy issued a vocal warning to ships, threatening to destroy vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, according to a recording a shipowner received Saturday from one of his captains in the Gulf and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The shipowner said the vessel was acting on the warning, which told all ships that the strait is “completely closed again,” blaming the U.S. government.
“Attention all ships, regarding that failure of the United States Government to fulfil its commitments in the negotiations, Islamic Republic of Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz completely closed again,” the radio message said. “No vessel of any type or nationality is allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” it said, adding that any vessel attempting to do so between the stated locations “will be met with a severe response from the IRGC navy and will be destroyed.”
India’s Ministry of External Affairs said on Saturday it had summoned Iran’s ambassador in New Delhi after two Indian-flagged ships were fired upon in the Strait of Hormuz. India’s foreign secretary said it expressed “deep concern” over the incident. New Delhi urged Iranian authorities to swiftly resume measures ensuring the safe transit of ships, calling the attack a serious escalation. Iran’s ambassador said he would relay India’s concerns to officials in Tehran, according to the statement.
Meantime, The Iran Consulate in Hyderabad said Saturday, citing Fars News Agency, that a supertanker carrying about two million barrels of crude arrived off the Indian coast. The ship was last seen in Iran hours before the blockade, the post said. The delivery marks the third shipment in a week, bringing India’s total imports from Iran to roughly six million barrels, the consulate said in a social media post.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Discusses New U.S. Proposal
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, or SNSC, is discussing new U.S. proposals for a peace deal, the country’s state television said Saturday. “Iran is currently considering the proposal but has not yet responded,” the statement by the council said, according to the report. Talks between the two sides could take place on Monday in Pakistan, according to mediators.
Iran is determined to continue to control the movement of ships in the Strait of Hormuz until the end of the war and the establishment of a lasting peace, the statement added. Iran’s military said Saturday that the strait was back under its control, adding to the uncertainty and prompting ships waiting to cross to turn back.
How Much Oil Does Iran Export?
As the U.S. seeks to enforce a blockade on Iranian exports and potentially board Iran-linked ships outside the Middle East in the coming days, the country faces a significant revenue hit if the crackdown proves successful.
Iran exported billions of dollars worth of oil in recent months, accelerating its shipments ahead of military action by the U.S. and Israel. Iran exported an average of 1.84 million barrels a day in March, according to data from Vortexa, and 2.15 million barrels a day in February. That’s about 38% higher than in December 2024, according to data provider CEIC.
A Massive Lie
Friday morning, I posted Iran Announces the Strait Is Fully Open, Oil Prices Plunge, Stocks Soar
Iran War Questions
Trump started this war on February 28, 2026.
Will this deal be any better than what Iran offered prior to the war?
Will this deal be any better than what Obama negotiated in 2015?
I believe will will soon have answers. However, the damaged infrastructure will still take years to repair.
I welcome a deal. But how good is it, and at what price to what was possible three months ago?
Trump chose war and much infrastructure in the region will take years to recover.
The stock market cheers (S&P up 1.2 percent), so does gold (up 1.8 percent), silver (up 5.5 percent), bitcoin (up 5.5 percent).
WTIC, US oil plunged 13.5 percent to 82.33.
Yet, the 30-year bond yield is down only 1 percent to 4.88 percent. From an inflation standpoint, that’s the real tell that all will not be smooth sailing.
Nothing to Cheer
I did not think much about my headline until now. But It should have said “Trump Announces” not “Iran announces”.
Headlines similar to mine were nearly universal. But I apologize. I should have said Trump in my headline.
Of course, MAGA was crowing about the result, wanting to know why I wasn’t praising Trump. I didn’t offer any praise because there is nothing to praise.
Trump started a stupid war, both sides blew up things, and infrastructure was destroyed that will take years to recover.
Any deal is unlikely to be much if any better than the deal Obama negotiated or was on the table before this stupid war started. The world will be worse off because of the damaged infrastructure.
If Iran remains in control of the strait, we will all be much worse off even if Iran gives up its nuclear dust in return.
Today, it’s clear that Trump lied about everything. And Trump is negotiating with a much more hardline regime than the one it bragged about killing.
Looking Ahead
I don’t know where the futures open Monday. And no one else does either.
Maybe we have a deal soon and maybe we don’t.
So, I will repeat something I have said for weeks. It’s not clear what Trump’s goals even are. In contrast, Iran’s immediate goal is to punish Trump as much as possible regardless of what it costs them. Iran’s top long-term goal is remain in control of the strait.
In terms of punishing Trump, delays suit Iran just fine.
Brilliant Blockade?
I keep reading on X how brilliant Trump was to block the strait. Allegedly, it’s all part of Trump’s master plan.
But why not this path in the first place? Instead we have huge infrastructure damage everywhere.
None of this was planned. Trump makes things up as he goes.
And how brilliant is it to have Iran blocking all non-Iran traffic with Trump blocking the rest? Essentially no oil will get through. That’s a supply disruption of 2.15 million barrels a day. Declines in oil futures won’t last in this stalemate.
Trump cheerleaders say the blockade will force Iran to accept Trump’s deal. But what deal is that? Trump lied about the deal Iran accepted.
This reminds me of how sanctions were supposed to destroy Russia, but didn’t.
Reflections on Regime Changes
Other than boots on the ground, there have been no successful regime changes ever. In this case, the killing all of Iran’s top leadership resulted in an even tougher regime to deal with.
Sometimes regime changes don’t work even with boots on the ground. We spemt trillions and trillions of dollars in Afghanistan. Guess what? The Taliban is back running things.
Meanwhile, all we really have from Trump is lies. Before the war started we heard the exact same lies. “Iran is ready to deal”.
Iran will never be ready to deal if Trump keeps insisting on terms no nation could accept.
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In response to the US attacking an Iranian ship, Iran announces it will prevent all oil flows from the area, including the Yanbu pipeline to the Red Sea, the Fujairah facility in the UAE, and the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
They can try.
So it’s come to this. When the governments of the US and Iran have opposing claims, this white American male has been believing Iran before the USA for the last six to eight weeks.
Trump is a proven fraud and liar. Period,
As a friend from Sri Lanka put it – Iran has never lied to him. The United States has lied to him for his entire life.
Trump says US negotiators are heading to Pakistan for another set of talks. A delegation from Iran will arrive Tuesday and the two sides will consider a ceasefire extension and a continuation of talks.
Meanwhile, the world continues to lose 10+ million barrels per day of oil.
One positive effect of the current ceasefire is that it allows all Persian Gulf countries to work on repairs to damaged infrastructure. These repairs will take many months or years and can easily be undone by further conflict.
Why bother with repairs when missiles or drones may fly tomorrow? The gulf states need to work out a deal with Iran themselves. And JD Vance is out as “negotiator” lol. Totally failed first time around.
Not to mention that supplies for mamy types of repairs will need to be shipped in.
I think it is still around 10 mln if also Iran will not be able to export. If they can export it would be les…I am personal thinking that in Asia demand destruction is started
Strange that all the time the announcement of the end of the war arrive on Friday…and on Monday we start again…seems like someone is doing a lot of money on Friday and also on Monday…
Mish: “Trump is much better at manipulating futures than negotiating deals”
All you need to know wrt your comment
As I see it, the only question now is how long the US will thrash about militarily – and what disasters will ensure – before coming to terms with the new reality of Iran’s control of the Straits and dominance in the region. My guess is that the Empire goes for broke – and gets broken.
The bombing will stop when Trump decides he has made enough money from this theater.
I hope.
With the U.S. blockade in place, Iran has virtually no income. Without oil to sell, Iran has very little to offer up to anyone, but needs a whole lot from everyone that is willing to supply it.
Problem is, even if they had someone to sell it to them, Iran has virtually no way to have it delivered to them, or money to pay them for it. How Iran can last in this situation is beyond me?
Sure they can try to get others to scream and yell about it, as others need oil too, but that’s a fools errand, as it’s Iran that’s not allowing oil to pass at the moment. They are slowly being despised by the World for their behavior. Countries around them, are tired of being bombed, and thank the U.S. for that stoppage. Oil needed is getting sent through other open avenues, but a longer travel situation is all. Ironically some of the Countries Iran is messing with, are the ones assisting the U.S. now.
When all of this is eventually over, what will Iran have accomplished? Nothing as far as I can see. In fact, they may end up losing their ability to sell oil all together. That blow would basically crush Iran until that changes back, or they will cease to exist as they are today, and slowly at first, then all at once. That’s the end game then…
Iran has forces aligned internally, that are 100% opposed to this situation. As it Carrie’s on, they are striking them slowly where vulnerable. That’s a lot of places, and at night, they are very vulnerable. Once they start losing lines of defense, it will get increasingly worse for them. As the soldiers barely getting paid and hungry and tired, will start to realize they will die if they stay in this quagmire, and nobody will be coming to help them, as they are nearly fodder for the Regime.
Iran is done, and it’s just a matter of time. If they are not careful, they could have a great deal of what’s left, completely annihilated, and again for what? They will be gone as a Country as they exist today, and all the leaders and support, still alive, will be held severely accountable. This will not end well for Iran at this pace of self destruction imho.
“ With the U.S. blockade in place, Iran has virtually no income. Without oil to sell, Iran has very little to offer up to anyone, but needs a whole lot from everyone that is willing to supply it.”
Iran is still exporting 1-2 mbpd. An increase in exports compared to two months ago.
Iran is still collecting toll booth money from ships it allows through the strait.
And neighboring Iraq has gone from exporting 4 mbpd to zero for 6 weeks. Why haven’t they collapsed?
Iraq, as I’m sure you know, has done (forced in ways) an outstanding job of Flow and Sales of its oil. They do not run into issues I am hearing Iran will be going through soon enough, if not very careful. Is Iran as much in control of their flow as Iraq? I don’t know, but we are about to find out I suppose.
Iraq, like other Persian Gulf nations is doing what it can. But if they cannot export oil through the strait (50 days now), they are not collecting anything for those lost sales, and most of their wells will remain shut in.
Meanwhile Iran has been exporting more oil than before the war.
How you can rationalize that into “Iran oil production being worse off than Iraq”, is beyond me.
Stu the Persian Whisperer strikes again.
Anticipating thoughtful reflection from Stu?
Rare, but still possible on occasion. It’s what happens when someone looks hard to find ANY piece of data that might fit their narrative. Then expand it to conclude that narrative is correct.
Then ignore all the other multiple pieces of data that say your narrative is wrong.
Then ignore the fact that the piece of data they presented is also wrong.
A delightful melange of Dunning Kruger and bias confirmation
pass the duchie to the left hand side, mon
Weren’t the sanctions from 2012-2015 and again after 2019 meant to cripple Iran’s economy? Can you explain why it will work this time when it did not work last time?
As I see it, Iran is more prepared than the USA and the world to endure a long period where the Strait sees no traffic at all. Once they work with the Houthis to close the other Strait… then what?
The hopeful thing for the country, Trump and Stu have roughly equal critical thinking skills, which is why the best is yet to come.
The U.S. military has been planning and conducting war games specifically targeting or simulating conflict with Iran for over 45 years with formal planning intensifying immediately after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The damage to their oil fields could be part of the plan. The following is what happens when Iran can no longer ship their oil out and they reach their maximum storage capacity.
Shutting down oil wells—referred to as “shutting-in”—is not like turning off a tap; for Iran’s aging, mature fields, it is often a “death sentence” for production capacity. When wells are forced to stop because storage is full, the following irreversible damage occurs:
Underground Reservoir & Well Damage
Water Coning: This is the most critical “silent killer.” When production stops, the pressure balance shifts, and bottom-water from deeper layers rushes upward into the oil zone.
Permanent Oil Trapping: This water “cones” into the rock pores, physically locking oil droplets away. Once this happens, that oil is disconnected from the wellbore and can never be recovered.
Mechanical Collapse: Sudden pressure changes can cause the underground rock structures (reservoir channels) to shift or crumble. These “mechanical collapses” can permanently seal the pathways the oil uses to reach the well.
Wax and Solid Clogging: As the oil sits stagnant and cools, heavy waxes and organic sludges (asphaltenes) precipitate out, essentially “gluing” the wellbore shut. Removing these requires aggressive, expensive chemical treatments that don’t always work.
Long-Term Consequences
Lost Capacity: Experts estimate that forced shut-ins could permanently eliminate 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day of Iran’s production capacity.
Revenue “Vaporized”: This lost capacity translates to $9–$15 billion in annual revenue that is gone forever, regardless of whether a ceasefire or new deal is reached.
Equipment Decay: Above ground, stagnant oil is highly corrosive. Without flow, water and gases like hydrogen sulfide separate and eat through the steel of pipes and valves, leading to leaks or “blowouts” upon attempted restart.
The “13-Day Clock”: Analysts estimate Iran has roughly 13 to 20 days of spare storage capacity. Once those tanks are full, they must begin these high-risk shutdowns.
This describes Iraq and Kuwait where shut ins occurred weeks ago.
Iran is still exporting 1-2 mbpd. An increase in exports compared to two months ago.
I was under the impression that Iran was only selling roughly 1.5 mbpd of crude before the war started? so are they actually selling more now, or a different mix?just curious as oil is not my thing, but I trust you on the topic.
FrommCoPilot:
Iran’s oil exports have surged during the war, even as production dipped slightly and a U.S. naval blockade now threatens a sharp reversal.
🇮🇷 1. Export volumes since the war began (March–mid‑April 2026)
Despite closing the Strait of Hormuz to most foreign shipping, Iran continued exporting its own crude at higher‑than‑normal levels.
• March exports: 1.84 million bpd A
• April (so far): 1.71 million bpd A
• 2025 average: 1.68 million bpd (for comparison) A
Key point: Iran’s exports increased during the conflict because it allowed only select countries’ tankers through the strait while blocking most others.
💰 2. Revenue impact: Iran earned more during the war
Iran benefited from both high global oil prices and uninterrupted self‑exports.
• Iranian crude has stayed above $90/bbl, often over $100/bbl during the past month. A
• Estimated revenue (mid‑March to mid‑April): $4.97 billion. A
• Pre‑war monthly revenue: ~$3.45 billion. A
Bottom line: Iran earned ~40% more from oil exports during the war than before it. A
🛢️ 3. Production levels: Slight decline, not a collapse
OPEC data shows Iran’s production fell only ~5%, from 3.24 million bpd to 3.06 million bpd in March. B
This contrasts sharply with Gulf Arab producers (Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia), whose output plunged 23–61% because they could not export through Hormuz. Iran, by controlling the strait, avoided this constraint.
🚢 4. Strategic advantage during the strait closure
Iran effectively militarized and controlled the Strait of Hormuz, allowing:
• Its own tankers and a few partner countries to pass.
• Most other shipping to be blocked or threatened.
This created a rare situation where Iran’s exports rose while its rivals’ exports collapsed, pushing global prices higher. C
⛔ 5. The turning point: U.S. naval blockade (April 14–15, 2026)
After peace talks failed, the U.S. ordered a full maritime blockade of Iran’s ports.
• All traffic in/out of Iranian ports is now blocked by the U.S. Navy. B
• Analysts warn this could severely damage Iran’s export capacity if sustained. A
This is the first moment in the conflict where Iran’s export resilience is genuinely threatened.
📉 6. What happens next?
Short‑term outlook:
• Exports likely fall sharply if the blockade holds.
• Production may be forced down as storage Iran’s oil exports have surged during the war, even as production dipped slightly and a U.S. naval blockade now threatens a sharp reversal.
“…oil is not my thing….”
No shit.
Bot post
AI, captain!
There seem only 3 options:
JCPOA+ big win for Iran which will continue to charge $2mm tolls (but there is a loyalty card program… your 5th Hormuz passage is free!)
Duke Nukem option, but mass bombing will wipe out the region after Iranian retaliation. 70-99% of GCC drinking water come from desalinization plants which are protected from missiles by… well, nothing.
Continued Muddle until world economy really breaks *** Frontrunner!!!
There is no deal that will satisfy Israel.
If they have to destroy the world, then that is a small price to pay, as long as they need only stretch out their hand and Uncle Sam will fill it
Why would Iran accept a deal where they were bombed and are blockaded and forced to starve and destroy their economy while letting the rest of the world go on like nothing happened?
Why would anyone negotiate with or believe Trump?
“ Why would anyone negotiate with or believe Trump?”
Iran will negotiate to get what they want from Trump. But they will never trust him. After all, he attacked them twice while they were in negotiations. And he lies daily to the press about what Iran is offering.
So Iran keeps the strait closed to most shipping and patiently waits for Trump to give in to their demands.
Americans are not prone to donning the other party’s hat and thinking through what we propose they do from their perspective. Clearly Iran will not make a deal. They will allow US to ground invade and over-extend their resupply chains. Then? Keep following!
Trump had an emergency meeting today at the White House with all hands on deck to discuss Iran and what to do next. He is impatient and desperate to find a way out of the mess he created.
Iran today said that there are no meetings scheduled with the US, and that the strait remains closed. They are in no rush to make a deal, unless of course they can get what they want from negotiations.
We will have to wait and see what the next move is from the US.
US military prepares to board Iran-linked ships in coming days, WSJ reports
That’s Trump’s playbook. If negotiations aren’t going well, find a way to escalate the situation. Though the escalation rarely happens. Remember his threat to bomb all of Iran’s bridges, power plants and water supply. Or his threat to end Iranian civilization.
Problem is, that threats won’t work with Iran. They respond to Trump’s threats with counter threats to destroy infrastructure in other countries. Then Trump backs down.
If Iranian ships are boarded, expect Iran to counter with something.
And expect the strait to stay closed.
One of the things that is obvious about the Trump administration is that they have little intellectual capacity to recognize that others can take action too, and often in surprising ways. You see that across the MAGA world.
They are a religion that aspires to perfect selfishness.
Give it a bit. The destruction of Iran, using nuclear weapons if need be, if the only result Israel will be satisfied with.
US Warship personnel complain of lack of and low quality food.Is this a ploty to keep the ships away.to prevent them from getting sunk?
The problem is far more insidious. The Navy, like the rest of the US military has inadequate logistics capacity for sustaining long-term engagements. There’s a reason for that. Defense companies and the Pentagon leadership have focused on ensuring massive profits for the defense industry which flows back into congressional campaigns. So we get multi-billion dollar attack ships with inadequate funding for support vessels. The idea presented is that our overwhelming firepower will quickly overcome any resistance, so its okay. But its a lie. And the idea that we could win a war against a near peer military like China is an even worse lie. But it keeps the rubes patriotic and the money flowing. I’m an ex-Navy officer (from a ways back), but have watched this over the decades.
Trump is running America and the entire world just like he ran all his prior businesses: to bankruptcy and oblivion. The only business he’s succeeded at is his grifting, while holding the power of POTUS. And of course, all his and his families countless crypto scams have also succeeded as a result.
Thank you, Americans, for making all our lives utterly miserable. I beg you all to vote rationally in the mid-terms and subsequent elections. Many of us in other countries are suffering incredibly more than you, because of your choice in repeatedly voting in the greatest criminal and grifter the US has ever seen.
TACO
You are awarded ” Noble Mother of all Lies Prize “.
–
The Trump problem is tragic, and American voters did this to us. I have to admit, I expected trouble from Trump but never something like this. He’s a vile, greedy, swaggering psychopath who doesn’t understand how crazy he is.
Yep, you have described Trump, but he never hid who or what he was. Yet voters elected him twice. I know there wasn’t a good choice, but in my opinion, we would have been better off electing a turd.
You did, the mother of all lying shits.
Team D managed to run a series of turds in 2016, 2020 (that turd wheezed out a win) and 2024.
I am leaving the question of “sociopath vs turd” as an exercise for the reader.
Trump lied to the American people about being the peace candidate and being America First. And Kamala as a choice? Should you really blame the American sheeple for the Epstein class having maneuvered them into having no choice but an incompetent, profoundly dishonest person?
I live in a rural area roughly 200 miles from the southern border. One morning, a load of Biden’s illegals (seven men and one woman) was dumped on our property less than two tenths of mile from where my daughter and grandchildren live in an isolated farm house. They were, of course, completely unvetted. The Feds were nowhere to be seen. It was a complete abrogation of responsibility. For us, and here I mean the entire county, it was a single issue election.
The American people are to blame. We elect the leaders we deserve, and it is WE who have earned the right to be bombed back to the Stone Ages. We’re just lucky to be the least likely nation to get what we really deserve.
The ruling class is very good at getting their way by presenting a Hobson’s Choice.
This shows the gravity of Epstein Files Disclosure.
Basically EVERYONE who did not vote for him was warning it would be THIS BAD. Y’all thought we were just working to bring in illegals and get your dog assigned to a random gender of our choice. I hope you had fun making fun of the libs, this is the payback we ALL are paying due to voting Trump in again.
I had it figured out in February of 2016 – Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
He also is a sociopath.
Trump is doing a great job, in his mind. And 100 million people agree with him. Hopefully a lot less people. People find all types of made up excuses to support whatever Trump does. It’s a lose lose scenario. It’s probably too late to avoid what’s coming for the world economy.
Not according to the WSJ. He is acutely aware of “quagmire risk”. He has been trolling the Iranians with his ‘crazy grandpa’s schtick, wrongly believing it would scare the Iranians to the table. But as that repeatedly fails, he flails. The WSJ article (long form) offers a more realistic and believable portrait of the Brer Rabbit conundrum he himself recognizes he is in.
Well Trump says bombs will drop when cease fire ends, if that happens and Iran blows desalination plants then oil to the moon! I’m going to take a gamble and buy calls on Monday. We could see oil jump to $130 in a heartbeat.
And just in case I’m wrong, I’ll buy puts too. It may seem bipolar and psychotic but your trades gotta match the president’s mind.
I bet if you go ten bucks out of the money either way on USO, you’re still paying $1 per contract this week. The bounce play on Friday was so rich. I’d almost rather chase the reveberation than the initial move.
– This reminds me of how sanctions were supposed to destroy Russia, but didn’t. > exactly! The long drawn out “No” is common to restock, resupply, access, real options, and part of which is a survival plan.
– Other than boots on the ground. > Discussed a few times with no bites of the apple. Not happening, anytime soon anyway, if at all imo.
– the killing all of Iran’s top leadership resulted in an even tougher regime to deal with. > They have zero trust, and zero tolerance for the U.S. at this point, and what they have done to the Country. Needed to deal with the existing Leadership, if you wanted to move the needle even slightly, imo.
– Sometimes regime changes don’t work even with boots on the ground. > Do they truly ever trustingly last overtime? They got where they are because of what they were told or led to believe, so why trust now, other than the long “No” again.
– We spemt trillions and trillions of dollars in Afghanistan. Guess what? > That was a departure cluster F, with no rules, or common sense to the way it was handled imo.
– Iran will never be ready to deal if Trump keeps insisting on terms no nation could accept. > Definitely some truth in that!!
America has delusions about the extent of its power.
Rare earths are at the top of the list, why he really wants Greenland, and put up with Ukraine, for the possibilities.
Greenland was too over the top, and just wouldn’t work right now anyway, as no need to do so right now. A nice ace in the hole for when it’s needed later perhaps, and they know they have a buyer.
Ukraine was a desperate attempt during the chaos to try and get tied in somehow. But Z didn’t bite, and neither did Russia.
So there is that hurdle to climb at some point, sooner rather than later I would guess…
You sway and bend like an enema hose
You sound too close to yours, but I digress…
Seriously, I go where the phases, and info and other scenarios and how they are playing out and such. Some I talk with and share info with. Just like everyone else I suppose.
I wonder if Democrats will come with mid-term election slogan
Gasoline for $20.26 ? Vote Republicans.
Gasoline for $3.00? Vote Democrats.
Turning domestic price of gasoline into unsolvable foreign policy problem during few days is quite an achievement in a country which is, in terms of energy, self sufficient.
The longer these gas prices stay this high or go higher with befuddled tweets and not even a scrap of hope as to when the prices will dramatically come down and a percolating perception that insiders are making big money on my pain at the pump ANY administration with all that going on and on and on and on is toast
If sales are crumbling elsewhere with gas at only $4 a gallon that should tell you everything.
Well if history holds, democrats will come up with rainbow colored gasoline to be more inclusive of the community and add a tax for DEI. Then we’ll get woke gas station pumps telling everyone to use less gas and be more green.
The high cost of gas won’t go away but everyone can feel good about being more inclusive.
But I’ll take that over the current circus because of what Trump said.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
Amazing how long this manipulation game keeps working.
I think we may need to consider the possibility that no one is telling Trump the truth any longer at this point. He sent a trio of inexperienced and cowardly sycophants to negotiate for him… how likely do you think it is that they’re giving him honest feedback of how it went, or if they themselves (our so-called “negotiating team”) even understand what’s happening in these negotiations?
I am getting the feeling that the Trump administration is in functional collapse at this point. Nobody is even willing to tell demented Grandpa anything vaguely upsetting to his face. We’re being ruled by a volatile dementia sufferer surrounded by toadies who just want the gravy train to keep rolling.
The authorities are long gone. All that are left are the lickspittles.
Even Kash has a hunted look lately.
Yeah rumor has it his heads on the block
Yes, we have a weak, ineffective government.
I think our government is shockingly effective. The one in Tel Aviv, I mean.
Kushner and Wittkof are minders and Israeli agents, not sycophants. Vance knows Trump is enfeebled and Israel is calling the tune. We know he has no power or authority. We don’t know what policy he would want if he took over.
” Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) stated that it’s “almost like the media and the Democrats were gleeful when Iran took” the Strait of Hormuz.
Do demcorats suffer from TDS to the point that they want Trump and America to fail in crushing the Iranian Head of the Snake of evil in the world?
Wow… deal with reality dude! Say what you will about Democrats, but their take on the war seems to be WAY more tethered in reality!
John Fetterman (The Senator from Ataxia) excepted
And you think your reality is more truthful ? The Iranian terrorist governing Iran since 1979 are EVIL DUDE just ask the Thousands they have killed in their own County–When they turn on their internet ask the survivors
I can actually call Iranians on their satellite phone amd talk to them right now.
please stop acting like you ever gave a shit about any Iranian.
And what do the survivor say? Give us guns so we can get our freedom back from these Psychopathic Killers
A, President dirty diapers said America first and no foreign entanglements, why are we policing the entire middle east now?
B, he’s not talking about even removing that government any more, so… What’s your point even
And yeah, my reality is reality, not make believe. You want to go along with Trump’s mass hallucination where the strait is open and the war is over, go ahead, but be prepared for some serious migraines from that splitting
Another Trumper who pretends to care about Iranians while calling for their murder.
https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/the-number-of-dead-iranian-protesters
Personally i like when a dem or republican congress person has to walk the middle to stay elected. We have let the political machine make it about one side verse the other. Thats prob one reason we are where were at.
Policy not party.
Yes.
What kind of batshit nonsense was that?
I understand that your moronic worldview is collapsing and I get it. You’re upset and it’s making you act out, but if you absolutely must be a whack job about it, at least try to use comprehensible grammar.
Thank you for your attention to this matter
The head of the snake is Israeli pal.
TSA screens for Jews—nope? Islamist are a political hate cult and TSA strips searches everyone of them
The US “losing” the straight of Hormuz was a predicted outcome of any war with Iran. Only Trump was stupid enough to drag us into the disaster with Nuttyahoo. The best thing for the US would be for Trump to choke on a Big Mac.
According to reports, including yours above, the Persians were stupid enough to attack two Indian ships after having given them permission to transit the Strait. It just goes to show that the decentralized military command system set up by their government has led to a position where nobody can speak for the whole country.
They won’t last long like that. The most violent people don’t always win. Remember what happened to the extremists in the French revolutionary government after they had executed all the opposition leaders? My history book in school didn’t go into detail, but it said that the remnants of other parties united to have the Jacobin leaders executed as well.
Trump knows what he is doing. Persia can’t fight the whole world. Germany couldn’t fight the whole world. You have to make sure that you look like you’re the good side.
Oh yeah, this is just like the French Revolution, or something. LOL, cope harder.
I should have added that Trump and his Jewish friends have given the Persian leadership a good flogging, and I don’t think it matters how “extreme” or how upset the new Ayatollah is. They’ll be more careful about starting fights in the future. I’m sorry for the Moslem resistance that the Persians will no longer be able to afford to support, but that’s what comes of being factionalized and focusing all your attention on fighting instead of building. The Negroes in Africa have the same problem.
I just hope that the Americans don’t succeed in destroying Russia and Hungary, and incorporating them in the American commercial empire. Israel can have the Sunni Moslem countries as far as I’m concerned. Trying to civilize them will be like the Europeans trying to civilize Africa in the nineteenth century. Does anyone here know the lyrics of “White Man’s Burden”? It’s a very good summary of what Europeans thought they were doing. It was a mistake.
Go look and see what happened in Afghanistan after 20 years of flogging and trillions of dollars flushed down the toilet for reference.
We lost the War in Afghanistan, because
Oh-dumb-azz changed the rules of engagement. We couldn’t fire on the Taliban first, unless we were fired on by the Taliban.
We couldn’t bomb whole villages, because it would kill their woman & children.
That’s not how you fight wars to win.
Jolly o chap,a good flogging!
Asshat
“Starting fights”?!?
Like Poland started a fight with Nazi Germany.
“They’ll be more careful about starting fights in the future”.
If you are referring to Iran you might want to check your facts, they didn’t start this war.
Maybe true that Iran can’t fight the whole world and win. However the crazy things trump is doing doing may be uniting most of the world against the USA. Can we fight the whole world, and win?
I don’t think you (the United States) are uniting the whole world against you. A few angry words from Trump aren’t going to make Europe decide to align itself with Russia and China. Trump’s angry words are often fair, or at least arguable.
In the meantime, Japan wants oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. Japan will stay onside. A few days ago, Singapore announced that it wasn’t going to be paying any tolls to get through the Strait of Hormuz, so we know which side Singapore is on. You might think that Singapore doesn’t matter, but Singapore is one statelet that tends to know what it is doing. It can’t afford not to.
I know this because I make a practice of reading the ‘Straits Times’ online.
Trump has told so many contradictory lies to manipulate the markets that he can’t even remember the last time he told the truth. A global economic catastrophe caused by 1 man, while insiders make a quick few billion on those Trump bullshit announcements. Who keeps placing these trades?
It is truly The Twilight Zone when the President of a major nation behaves like this.
The fact that this imbecile and his Irraeli masters have their fingers on the nuclear trigger, and his IQ is shrinking by the day, is frightening.
Food? So last year. Millions, maybe Billions will starve to death over this war. An acconting entry in Davos. To paraphrase Stalin – “the death of 1 man is a tragedy, the death of BIllions a statistic”
Aviation fuel is running dry around the world. No more jet-setting vacations. Toursim industry, say goodnight. Cruise ships, bye. Plastic packaging, we never really needed that anyway, did we? Looking around my house I don’t see anything that involves plastic or petroleum products, who cares.
The actual price of oil is now around $147/bbl, and in Singapore yesterday somebody paid $210/bbl. Whatever the number the futures markets shows on your screen, it has about as much credibility as Trump. I read that there is some rule that at some point the physical price has to converge with the futures, when is that, end of the quarter or when?
Yet you still see Trump death cultists in this very comment thread talking about some 18-D chess going on here. That is truly disturbing. At some point you can’t stop ignoring your lying eyes about what is right in front of you, can you?
well said friend… well said.
The surrendering at both fronts of WW2 involved cease-fires leading up to putting ink to paper. What we have between Iran and the US is a strategy of beating each other into an agreement, which means to pay attention to military maneuvers to figure out how close the end of fighting is. There is no face-saving in the actions being taken. “Expert” negotiators’ models, opinions and advice don’t apply to this situation.
Ha! Strait CLOSED and you clowns fell for it!
Boom!
5D chess baby….wait for my next move, ha ha
‘ – DJT
I’m telling you someone needs to look into this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concerns
“Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?”
You realize the Roman elite, and military economically pillaged Rome as it burned around them in those final years.
Trading in these markets and gambling sites is stupid UNLESS you have the accurate insider information.
I don’t visit Naked Capitalism regularly anymore (I left when craazyman was banned back in 2015 – interestingly, he is now hanging out at Matt Taibbi’s site) but Yves had a good Iran war update post today that listed all the lies Trump has told about the Iran war recently. It’s a good take.
CNN is currently reporting all of Trump’s top leaders are at the White House today, a Saturday, when most of them would be golfing otherwise.
Maybe they’re going to attack Iran.
It is Saturday night, after all
They’re talking about their investment portfolio bets for Monday.
Yves really doesn’t like me, or anyone who doesn’t agree with her.
Too bad, she posts good information.
Back during the COVID scam, she drank the Kool-aid. She was pro-vax and hyper-concerned about the virus as the only thing worth discussing (like the MSM).
She blamed the COVID inflation on ‘supply chain’ issues and greedy corporations. She’s supposed to be a financial blog. She’s blinded by this bizarre ‘theory’ (MMT) where creating money and handing it out for free supposedly doesn’t cause inflation.
True-believing Islamic people, if given the chance for free and fair elections, will always choose Islamic theocracies, because that is what they are commanded to do by their “prophet.”
False – Iranians very much dislike this govt
You know how liberals always think that communism works, it just hasn’t been done right? Islamic theocratic believers are the same way.
In the case of Iran (from Wikipedia):
Following the March 1979 Islamic Republic referendum, in which 98% approved the shift to an Islamic republic, the new government began drafting the present-day constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran; Khomeini emerged as the supreme leader of Iran in December 1979.
Emphasize: 98% approved!
Link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution#:~:text=Following%20the%20March%201979%20Islamic,of%20Iran%20in%20December%201979.
True believers literally believe that the way to bring about the return of Mohammed is to create a worldwide Islamic theocracy. This is not just crazy jihadists, it is all of them.
Mohammed doesn’t return.
some Iranians believe in the return of the 12th Iman.
it has nothing to do with creating a worldwide Islamic theocracy.
I would explain it to you but if you really wanted to know you could have just googled it.
you speak as if you know something, but you are ignorant.
Iran had the Shah before the revolution.
in the early1900s the Iranians had a revolution and established a parliamentary government. many clerics fought on the side of democracy and several fatwa were issued to support it.
Iranians aren’t monolithic in their politics or beliefs any more than Americans are.
Mish, how do you know what Iranians think? There was a university of Maryland poll taken last May that showed general support. That’s been buried in favor of regime (American regime) propaganda.
and everytime we attack Iran and the irgc fight us off, their stature grows.
the guard is corrupt. that is the Iranians major issue with them.
they are really concerned with the fact the Supreme Leader has not been seen in public. they are concerned about different factions fighting or one faction not accepting a cease fire if implemented.
not one Iranian I know wanted an atomic bomb before the war. now they all want it.
my 2 cents from my talks with iranians.
Even if that were true (it isn’t, but whatever), so what? That’s the thing with democracy is that people don’t always vote the way you want them to.
You mean, like Indonesia, the largest Muslim country which is also a democratic republic? Are you channeling Rush Limbaugh?
Once again, the message was not for you. The message was to foment division in the leadership of Iran, and it worked. The amazing thing to me is that people believe that the news is true and not 90% manipulation. While oil was falling yesterday, I was selling my SCO and switching over to UCO because I could look at a map and watch ships go toward Bandar Abbas and turn around. The reality is you cannot negotiate with nuclear addicted religious zealot that are not afraid to die and take their countrymen with them. Trump is serious negotiator and the best thing for all involved is to have other leaders replace the zealots.
you cannot negotiate with nuclear addicted religious zealot that are not afraid to die and take their countrymen with them The same could be said of Christian zealots
When is the last time you heard a jew or a christian chant death to Iran or death to anyone else? The reality that you have choosen for yourself is one in which good is evil and evil is good. I ask of you to “choose life that you might live”.
Quite recently I heard Trump say, “A civilization will die tonight.”
Good one, mike drop moment.
Mishelin star award for best comment in the post thread.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_genocide
The link contains numerous verified statements of Israeli leaders.
And virtually EVERYONE watching without doing anything. On the contrary, US and EU supplying IS with weapons so they can go on.
No wonder Iran will fight back with all resources available. They had decades to implement their survival plan and have Russian and Chinese backing. Potentially also Pakistan.
USIS will get their teeth knocked in. And world economy collapse as a bonus.
OTOH that’s what the great reset is all about, so everything going according to plan of satanist background string pullers. DJT best front man they ever had
From your mouth to God’s ears.
And Zionists
Are you describing the USA or one of its many foes ???
oh ya hes a negotiator all right Trump nears deal with IRS that could see him given $14 billion in taxpayer money
https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-irs-lawsuit-suing-10-billion-dollars-tax-office-usa-politics-news/929663f2-f255-4936-8084-1d986ee08d65
I wonder why the Iranians think they can’t trust him, given how well he treats his country.
very few. they aren’t sure he isnt insane.
Israel, in a nutshell.
“Trump is serious negotiator and the best thing for all involved is to have other leaders replace the zealots.”
If Trump is a serious negotiator, why does he need to replace who he is negotiating with, in order to have a successful negotiation?
The reality is Trump is a terrible negotiator. He has no patience. He thinks negotiating is win-lose, when successful negotiating requires win-win. And he only has one strategy; continuous escalation.
Spot on, and he talks far too much.
“And he only has one strategy; continuous escalation.”
The main purpose is to keep the Epstein issue out of the media. Having recently discovered the money making moves when he tacos is an added bonus.
High on copium
this sums it up
https://imgur.com/a/rP3ZPvA
BREAKING NEWS
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2026/04/18/multimedia/18israel-iran-promo-2pm/18israel-iran-hormuz-shipping-topart-tgpf-videoLarge.jpgAsghar Besharati/Associated Press
Two Ships Are Fired On as Iran Says the Strait of Hormuz Is Closed
Correct so what I do know is that I need to be long (calls) and short (puts) energy equities like XLE, XOP and others. Buy calls or puts and wait for the big liar clown to open his mouth and profit. It’s easier than shooting fish in a barrel. Works the same way on bond ETFs like TLT. Just wait till 20 year gets close to 5%, buy puts then when it drops, sell calls. Rinse & repeat. Never been easier to profit off the market. Literally never.
Just wait for the TACO to spill its contents and boom profits!
When you lie as much as taco does, even him doesn’t know truth.
What I find fascinating is how Trump’s obvious lies can still move markets. Oil dropped over $10 on Friday when he claimed that the war was over (for the 30th time), Iran had agreed to all US conditions, the strait was open, Iran would send us all the nuclear dust, etc. Will there ever come a time when folks stop believing Trump’s repeated lies?
Meanwhile Iran said that they still control the strait and would close it if the US blockade continued, and that they have never discussed the nuclear material with the US at any point. And of course they have already closed the strait again and fired on three ships.
Trump’s lies were the signal to me to load up on energy stocks Friday morning. I sold some on the rebound in the afternoon but will sell more this coming week when oil goes back up.
I am still waiting for the cult moron known here as Doug, to post a list of all the things he thinks Trump succeeded in getting the Iranians to agree to.
“All of Trump’s demands are being met or soon will be to the disappointment of many here. It’s not over yet but is in the endgame.” Doug
Papa strong challenge
SCO 8.47 -+16%
UCO 37.46 +10%
SCO is gaining it was at 23% down and UCO was up 24%.
Winning for now. Goes until 12-31-26.
My assertion is Oil will be closer to $40 a barrel than $100 by end of the year.
Why don’t you simplify it: I say Over $70, while you say Under $70.
It shocks me that there are so many people willing to take enormous risks on the market with little verified information. Trump is clearly pumping the market to give him space for more political options.
So we end up with the insane runups that have little do with reality. You can short them, but you’re gambling that the market will stop being stupid before you become insolvent. So all we have are momentum traders melting up the market, completely oblivious to the obvious inconsistencies of what is being announced every 5 minutes.
It’s gotten ridiculous.
Agree. I do not understand those traders either. But I can profit from them.
Kosher pigs get fat, Treif hogs get slaughtered.
I so agree. People with their own money on the line would usually be expected to be more intelligent.
No one seems to analyze anything from the Iranian perspective. Or to realize that the mass of information they are operating on is propaganda.
The big propoent and book author advocating the Iranian blockade is ex-President of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass (Interesting interview link below) who has long said to just do an economic blockade – NOT a Military blockade. Trump just seridipitously fell into the economic blockade as a temporary [becoming permanent] reset after the military action, and the resulting negotiations failed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TI1s7ZJxSg
Cockroaches increasingly coming out into the open, situation must be getting desperate. CFR a largely zionist controlled setup.
“The CFR Board of Directors consists of about 36 members, including officers like Chairman David M. Rubenstein (Jewish) and Vice Chairmen Blair Effron (Jewish) and Jami Miscik (not Jewish), with President Michael Froman (Jewish). Other notable members include Kenneth I. Chenault, Jane Fraser, and Amy Zegart (Jewish background), alongside non-Jewish figures like Meghan L. O’Sullivan and Linda Thomas-Greenfield. No official data tallies “Zionist” affiliations, but analyses claim around 50-55% of the board supports pro-Israel views, far exceeding the U.S. Jewish population of ~2%.
A distinction without a difference: “analyses claim around 50-55% of the board supports pro-Israel views, far exceeding the U.S. Jewish population of ~2%”. I would say the US Pro-Israel views are are FAR, FAR higher than 2%; ergo the reverse is more correct.
A difference without a distinction: So there may be heavy Jewish influence; to say a group promoting ONLY economic sanctions is somehow worse than promoting mititary sanctions is just irrelevant.
Next?
I’ve been seeing posts from analysts this past week that an exceptional volume of military transports were reported from the U.S. to Europe/ME region. Signs are that we’re going to see more escalation.
BTW, I don’t see the world as being that much worse off if Iran had partial control of the Strait (w/ Oman) with a reasonable toll for an agreed period to rebuild. It’s not ideal but preferable to having war continue because U.S./Israel will certainly not agree to reparations.
The Hormuz Strait is considered International Waters. There are centuries of established maritime law that would be turned upside down if we started allowing tolling just based on who has the power to do so. There are other countries that need free access to that waterway, and Iran is not doing anything to maintain it (like the Panama Canal) or operate it. They’re just making up threats to get free money.
The precedent it would set would be devastating to much of the world, because everyone would start tolling different waterways within their reach.
This is not something we want to allow.
Do you disagree with our secretary of war that might makes right?
Seems the USA set a trend in the International Waters called “Caribbean” of ignoring maritime law… Iran just follows suit.
You mean life tariffs?
hahahaha sure
Who is “we” here dude? Israel and America attacked Iran twice (3 times soon) and do massive damage in an unprovoked terrorist campaign.
Completely ignoring any and all “international laws” – the very same onew you are saying Iran has to adhere to. Iran will need money to rebuild. Why not charge a toll for the Straits? Are you going to pay them reparations? (no)
If an Iranian ship transit the Panama Canal, they pay a hefty fee, don’t they?
The shipping channels in the Straits of Hormuz require dredging, the same as the Panama Canal requires repairs.
You are making me laugh at your stupdity and epic hypocrisy.
An American talking about “international law” – Please name any “international law” America adheres to? (crickets)
Idiot
Iran can simply call it reparations for an illegal war.
no precedent set for anyone else who would want to start tolling different waterways within their reach.
it appears the world is going to pay the toll and move on.
There is no deal with Iran that would satisfy Trump’s masters in Israel.
get the goosed market for 12 days including the latest push to ATHs Thurs/Friday…have the strait lock down on Saturday (markets closed). if it persists Monday, have markets return to about the level of January.
jawbone the markets to have had no impact during a war, er, excursion.
impressive actually, in a sick way. but it does take a complicit public.