Voting Intention Little Changed
Dec 2-3 ComRes Poll Raw Numbers
My lead chart was produced by plugging the latest ComRes Poll results into the Electoral Calculus Regional Predictor
Those numbers are from Table 23 in the ComRes poll.
Seat-by-Seat Change Projections
Those are neither ComRes predictions nor Electoral Calculus prediction.
Rather, they are the results I obtain putting ComRes numbers into the Electoral Calculus model.
I use ComRes because it provides regional breakouts.
Majority Still 48
There was no lead change from the prior ComRes numbers but some individual seats dis switch.
To compare, please see Three UK Election Projections, Raw Numbers and Seat by Seat.
No Change, No Surprise
Yesterday I commented Expect No Further Labour Gains: What You See is What You Get
It’s not just ComRes, all the polls have stabilized.
Actual Ballot Papers
ComRes used actual constituency ballot papers for this poll.
That may aid seat-by-seat projections even if the overall numbers did not change.
YouGov
I will post YouGov results as they come in and as time permits.
Labour’s Only Hope
Repeating my comment from yesterday: The only hope for Labour is that every poll is seriously wrong and all of them in the same direction.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
It should be painfully obvious in this election that any vote other than a vote for BJ is self-destructive.
Yes, I agree, Johnson is heading for a majority – that spells the end of any chance of a real Brexit.
Don’t be ridiculous
No, you’re the one being ridiculous. Boris is even openly stating he will get a deal by December 2020 easily because we start at full regulatory alignment. That means he’s planning on a very soft Brexit with full regulatory alignment. Handing over of fisheries. ECJ rule in many areas. Hiving off of Northern Ireland. Payment of absurd sums we don’t owe. Joining EU defence plans. But technically we will be out.
When even Farage is recommending voting for the guy you STILL wanna make out he’s a mistake in hindsight of the alternatives?
You’ve lost the plot like Major.
In what works does a Tory defeat spells anything other than Remain?
The Conservative betrayal over Brexit is such that we have a choice between Remain, or what looks like theoretically leaving the EU with alignment of most economic regulations (essentially mirroring most features of the customs union and single market). The Conservative have deliberately reduced it to this. Yet, Great Britain will be able to sign trade deals with the US, but as tariffs are so low already (3 or 4% on a trade-weighted basis under the WTO), the ability to vary tariffs is not as important as the ability to diverge from the EU in regulations. You might get some cheaper NZ beef and some cheaper US cars coming in. Environmental, social and workplace regulation will remain the same as the EU. We will agree a new Common Fisheries Policy. We will agree taxation rules so as not to be more competitive than the EU. We will pay £33bn we don’t owe (possibly £60bn+ if the negotiations drag on). The ECJ will be the court governing most of this. The choice is between Remain and a status as a satellite of the EU in a kind of captured-market arrangement. Your pretence this is Brexit is simply deceitful.
Just to illustrate the caliber of people that the British have to contend with as leaders, one just outdid himself suggesting that disabled people should be paid less than the minimum wage because “it’s about the happiness to work.” They are disabled, not stupid!
We tend to need less to support ourselves, we get both living allowance AND disability benefits…people on the dole ONLY get the allowance part