The polls are all YouGov so a bit of caution, but let’s discuss.
New Polls
- Ohio Senate: D+2
- Ohio Governor: D+6
- Iowa Senate: D+1
- Iowa Governor: D+7
- Texas Senate: D+4
- Texas Governor: R+1
- Michigan Senate: D+4
- Michigan Governor: D+6
- Kansas Senate: D+1
- Kansas Governor: R+1
- Nebraska Senate: Even
- Nebraska Governor: R+3
- Maine Senate: D+5
- Maine Governor: D+8
- North Carolina Senate: D+11
Every poll except is at least neutral for Democrats. I view all but Nebraska Governor favorable to Democrats for Senate purposes.
For example. Consider Republican Governor Abbott in Texas. If Abbott only wins Texas by one or two points, Paxton is going down hard. Even +3 or +4 for Abbott might be insufficient to drag Paxton over the line.
YouGov Rating
As of January 2026, Nate Silver rates YouGov a B. He says YouGov has a mean reverted bias of D+1.1.
O.K. Subtract a point from Democrats in every race above. Texas Senate is now D+2 and Texas Governor is now R+2.
Do the same for all of the races. Iowa Senate is now genuine 50-50 tossup and that is in line with my model.
Democrat are favored to win the Iowa Governorship, even by Cook Political.
If there was one governor’s race that could carry a Senator over the line, then Iowa is it. That’s a comment I have been making for over a month. Last week Cook Political made the same comment.
I listed 8 states above. The polls are Democrat favorable for all but Nebraska. That’s also in line with my stated comments.
How Much Confidence on This?
My assessment: Stand alone, the answer is this is favorable, but don’t get excited.
However, added to the body of other polls, this is new supporting evidence of a Blue Wave.
I wrote that assessment before checking Nate Silver.
At first glance, I did not think Silver’s results included YouGov. That’s because he dropped the YouGov polls to page two.
Polls Used by Nate Silver
How Did YouGov Influence Nate Silver?
Based on quality, YouGov only made page 2. Yet it still had a bit of an impact.
Since the only polls released today were YouGov, we can factor in the impact across the board.
Nate Silver Senate Forecast Over Time
Yesterday vs Today Percent Chance
- Yesterday: Deluxe Model was 77.9 percent.
- Today: Deluxe Model was 78.3 percent.
- Yesterday: Classic Model was 74.5 percent.
- Today: Classic Model was 75.0 percent.
- Yesterday: Lite Model was 75.9 percent.
- Today: Lite Model was 76.5 percent.
Roughly, the YouGov polls added about half a percent to model odds of Democrats winning the Senate.
Yesterday vs Today Senate Seats
- Yesterday: Deluxe Model was 52.6 seats
- Today: Deluxe Model was 52.6 seats
- Yesterday: Classic Model was 52.4 seats
- Today: Classic Model was 52.4 seats
- Yesterday: Lite Model was 53.0 seats.
- Today: Lite Model was 53.0 seats.
The number of seats was not impacted by YouGov. Yet Silver’s confidence level rose by half a point.
This matches my initial reaction: “This is favorable, but don’t get excited. However, added to the body of other polls, this is new supporting evidence of a Blue Wave.”
I do think 78 percent for Democrats winning the Senate is about right. I will make a final assessment soon.
Related Posts
October 26, 2026: Trump’s Eight Huge Unforced Errors Will Set MAGA Back for Years
The disintegration of MAGA is underway. Trump gets 100 percent of the blame.
October 29, 2026: The Betting Odds Are All Breaking the Same Way, Towards Democrats
This isn’t random. So what is it?
October 29, 2026: Surprise, Surprise! The Polls Catch Up with the Betting Markets Today
This morning, I was trying to make sense of the discrepancy between the polls and the betting markets.
October 30, 2026: Texas Early Voting Is 13.5 Points Bluer than 2024. Is That Enough?
Let’s discuss early voting in Texas.
October 31, 2026: What Did Republicans Gain from Trump’s Gerrymander War with Democrats?
Gain? What Gain?
Trumpism is the route to the end of the patina of American democracy. Republicanism is Trump light and republicanism is the philosophical logic toward Trumpism. The democratic party is democracy light and a bird pecking at the mountain of oligarchy.
What we need is not capitalism or socialism, but a thirdness greater oneness of only the best aspects of that duality and the highest ethical consideration possible APPLIED to any system or situation (in this case the economy and the money system) which is an aspect of the natural philosophical concept of grace…which in this case is Strategic Monetary Gifting. That is the true thirdness know as Wisdomics-Gracenomics.
Abdul El-Sayed is going to lose in Michigan.
As I have said, Israel can’t afford to have him win and the MIC can’t afford to have Mike Rogers lose. They will do whatever it takes to get the outcome they need.
While encouraging, there are no ends that trump and his band of grifters will go to rig the elections, if they are unable to buy them.
Unfortunately, the Democrats are not only more self-righteous, but they are more experienced and better grifters. Dick Nixon found that out.
One of Trump’s strengths is that as a real estate man, he is used to dealing with government graft and corruption, without doing anything that would put him in jail himself.
Key members of the Republican party went to Nixon and in plain terms explained how it was going to go down: he was either going to resign or they were going to convict him of committing impeachable offenses and remove him from office. And then he resigned. Because the Republican party forced him to resign. Because the House of Representatives proved their case for impeachment with rock solid evidence.