Michigan Declares State of Emergency
https://twitter.com/kr3at/status/1237580523192471552
Customs Officials at DC Airport Test Positive
https://twitter.com/kr3at/status/1237582132936986625
Washington State Bans Gatherings
https://twitter.com/kr3at/status/1237582269117657088
Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Declares a State of Emergency
https://twitter.com/kr3at/status/1237584325509394432
1000 Reached
10,000 When?
25,000 When?
If the current path continues there may be 25,000 cases in 10 days.
Those are not predictions that I am aware of. Rather they are the path we are on.
Given that the US is just now starting testing due to CDC incompetence, we may be behind the curve.
Mish Note: Tweets are Not Rendering
I have 7 Tweets in this post.
The most critical are the last two from Jim Bianco. I added hard links.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Coronavirus is just a flu. Stop fanning the flames of hysteria. The panic over this Nothing Burger is real and all this hysteria is the product of websites like these creating fear in weak minds.
Mish, Stop stoking the fear and jump out your window already. You are giving people way to much credit in how they handle this situation. i.e. creating panic at stores and bringing the entire family along to buy 24 months worth of supplies. shame on you.
Coronavirus is just a flu. Stop fanning the flames of hysteria. The panic over this Nothing Burger is real and all this hysteria is the product of websites like these creating fear in weak minds.
Plenty of labs can now test for coronavirus. But a key testing component is in short supply.
So, no one knows anyone with Covid19. Predictable.
Humans are smarter than viruses, but only if we’re using our brains.
I’m also impressed, and encouraged, by Xi’s openly challenging the Chinese wet markets. They are the reason 7.4 billion of us are at risk. No politician can ever lead his people anywhere they don’t already want to go. The fact that Xi could shut down the wet markets and stay in power says volumes…so far, but says nothing about all the other wet markets still open.
Looking for a scary thrill? Check out this recent Australian 60 minutes episode.
Perhaps, all I know is that we won’t really know the story until it is in our rearview mirror. But I do remember that at the beginning China was highly criticized for the perceived inaction over the epidemic.
But scientific literature does often mention that flu pandemics tend to mutate to less risky effects over time.
The real issue is that we are not measuring the problem. In the U.K. my sister (who works in the medical community) tells me that GPs are starting random testing to try to measure the asymptomatic population. In a call early this morning with German and Canadian employees I heard that Germany has drive thru test stations with results delivered in 24 hours, and Canada has rolled out home testing kits to stop people going into hospitals.
We aren’t even doing the most basic job of measuring the situation in the U.S.
The Chinese may be correct in the numbers coming down from their high according to this chart.
I think that is possible also, but if so only because measures are kept in place. 100 000 infected is a small number compared to Spanish flu, so I think to keep the pandemic held back it will mean keeping these measures in place, or being very active in testing and tracing the virus and any new cases.
We could have had dramatically more powerful information processing/virus early warning tools in the hands of CDC long before now had the rising threat(s) of future pandemics been taken seriously.
The Viral bullets have been whizzing past since the first Ebola outbreak in 1976, but interest, and funding, wane in the wake of each viral assault.
Even now, the talking heads are barking more at each other than the enemy.
Predictably, we’re now starting to run short of key chemicals for reagents in test kits.
Interesting that in one of the very few cases where coordination via political bodies is actually needed, they failed to step up to the plate! Instead, typical summit topics include global warming, global trade, how to properly screw parties not politically connected, and gender pay discrimination (the last topic a favorite of Justina Tredeau’s). I imagine many are kicking themselves, thinking “a golden opportunity to appropriate more power and we let it slip! Next time…”
So don’t worry, the topic will be discussed going forward!
Before we start jumping to conclusions, what are the ratio of infections that are community made versus from people traveling? It makes a HUGE difference. For example, Iowa went from 2 to 13 cases in about a week, but that’s because 12 of them are all people who were on the same cruise together in Egypt. It would be MUCH worse if those 12 had never traveled anywhere.
Correct. The normal transmission method is cases brought in via travel, then they spread to a few people, then a few more. Meanwhile, to contain it, the dept of health tries to track down the few that it got spread to. Eventually they lose the battle, and you start getting cases where you don’t know the origin. Until you get to that point, it’s not going to spread rapidly.
In Iowa, and many other states they are still at the stage where they can track the contacts of individual people. Some other areas, such as Washington and New York, have reached the community transmission stage. The good news is that you, in Iowa, have a few more weeks of relative safety. The bad news is that it will eventually come to a neighborhood near you.
From 3blue1brown’s Grant Sanderson, this is an excellent quick explanation of exponential growth and how we should think about it in relation to epidemics like COVID-19 https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=Kas0tIxDvrg&feature=emb_logo
Just yesterday, John Hopkins changed how their data source was structured, so if you copied this spreadsheet, you’ll need to update it.
Also, keep in mind that they added all the states, so for the next 12 hours or so, it will look like, say, WA added hundreds of new cases. This will resolve, once the new data updates. This sheet updates automatically at around 5pm PDT.
Also, if you’re curious, here’s a chart, if the US follows Italy’s unpreparedness:
The US is behind in testing, the charts are all days if not more behind actual infections . Here is Spain’s
From
Italy’s death rate is 6% while Germany is a flu like .1%?
That tells you two things, and probably a third:
(3. Italy is not counting mild and asymptiomatic cases, so they may have 50,000 cases. Germany may be counting everyone.)
Germany: 8 beds per 1000 population
Italy: 3.18 beds per 1000 population
Saturation point achieved earlier in an epidemic…especially given the demographic.
Takes time for people to get to critical condition. Italy got sick sooner, so they have more people that already died. Germany is behind the curve, hence the discrepancy.
I’m hearing some of our ports are at standstill. I strongly suggest stocking up NOW and forget everything you hear from the govt because pandemonium is on the way.
Also, i’m still laughing people quoting chinese numbers! We’re about to find out how full of bs they are! I suspect will have not short of totalitarian rule when the idiots in charge of this insane asylum finally realize how serious this is.
I think you are looking at it the wrong way.
I think we – like the WHO Mission – are going to see that China was far more efficient at controlling this than they were given credit for.
And their healthcare system, as reported by the WHO, is very, very efficient.
If China has fewer cases, that does not automatically mean they lied.
Soon Trump will make the ultimate announcement:
“The virus has been contained between the East and West coast”.
I have retarded inlaws that claimed they were moving to Washington. I told them a month ago about this and got “here we go again”. They just sold their house last week and as of today are still planning on going there. You idiots wont be staying with me! re
And truthfully, the whole country is going get locked down just like Italy as since the stock market is all that matters and hard choices are delayed to keep this crap of a system afloat.
I still have people telling me im over reacting for buying canned goods and crap loads of pet food. Also, might be better to just stay home if you get sick, not that you have a choice with full hospitals and football stadiums full of people, because what will happen to your pets? Asides them getting sick too i’m sure the authorties will just shoot them and put them in the portable incinerator.
I’m not screwing around.
Ohno, I agree. We’ve stocked up for a one month quarantine — food, dog food, meds, beer, etc. I’d rather have people think I’m a fool for preparing, rather than be the fool for not preparing. Kudos to you.
You must live in Cali. Used to be that people moved south when they retired, but now they head to the gray skies and musty suburbia of western Washington (or Oregon).
LOL, no actually i’m in Kansas near the coronavirus case. Fedex has really been hating me the past few weeks I had 10 bags of 50lb dog food show up monday lol. I have 5 large dogs. I dont have kids, thankfully, so they are my kids. I cant imagine having to worry about children in all this. I seen a young mother with 2 young ones at walmart with the look of despair on her face looking at empty cleaning shelves it was sad.
I also have people think I am crazy for stockpiling (in Australia) but so glad to read that I am not the only one
We stocked up a month ago, it’s stressful because at the same time it is admitting that what might unfold might be very unpleasant, which is not how we like to think. It puts you in touch with reality though – we don’t know what this virus is or how it will be. There is a limit to what a person can do, but by stocking up you make space for not having to take bad decisions later. Now what we do is like a trial run, we imagine there is virus everywhere when we go out and check our actions to avoid contamination, to decontaminate as well. Sounds crazy also, but no one would call it that if say you were heading off to somewhere with large outbreak. That just means we are used to doing things in a way, have ironed out some errors, for if it all goes to wherever. A lot of uncertainty involved but better to be more prepared to deal with any, and already now a lot of us are having to think on our feet, and it is only starting in the west. Personally I’m more concerned about the actions of authorities, of being pushed into forced error by others. In short, don’t worry for what others think, just try to make sure what you do follows some reasoning, try to think out ahead in your actions as far as possible, listen to your own intuition.
in Australia, of all places ?? I live in Flanders with on average almost 500 people/km²… Hoarding is impractical, very selfish, probably useless …. and insane…..How fckn primitive some still are ….in Australia on top of that….how many cases do you have now…30 ? SCARY !
I think you miss an important point. We don’t know if the virus will take the summer off or not, but we hope it does, in which case those of us in the Northern Hemisphere will get some respite for a few months. Australia, however, is just about to enter their flu season, which will rage for the next 6 months. The situation for those in the Southern Hemisphere is certain to get worse.
If people stocked up sensibly they wouldn’t feel they had to go out and fight over basic supplies with infected people to feed themselves. Up until recently everything was geared towards building up own future supply, not relying on the small price advantage of “just in time”, which also doesn’t work once supply chain is interrupted. Hoarding makes it sound like someone is taking more than for own immediate needs, that is not the case. Also
“Francesca Mangiatordi, a doctor from the Cremona hospital, speaks live on Tg1 and talks about the difficulties of life in the ward in these emergency weeks, starting with the symbolic photo taken of a colleague who fell asleep at the end of the shift and who moved Network users and more. “That was a moment of respite and despair, after ten hours of work, we had continuously moved patients and assisted patients, including young people, including 23-year-olds who asked for intubation assistance”. Then the appeal: “I ask the Italians to help us, we are at the limit of physical and mental strength. Hospitals are saturated, we are unable to respond to all needs. Stay indoors and don’t spread the virus. The situation is now collapsing” “
Via Corriere della Sera
How are you going to stay indoors and not spread the virus if you are out shopping every day ? That is selfish, others will pay for the virus being spread.
Like Anda says, it’s more selfish to put yourself in a situation where you have to go shopping during an outbreak.
Social distancing is good, period during a contagious outbreak. Every new patient, is added fuel for a fire, which can then get hotter and burn more others. Social distancing may not be “enough,” (in a practical sense. A one-way rocket to Mars probably would be.) and I recognize it is a lot harder in a densepacked area of Benelux than in the Aussie outback.
yeah sure , hoarding is merely philanthropic behaviour…..
Zero hedge has a good story, pointing out the incompetence of this administration.
I give props to Pence acting like a pro, now, at the press conferences. But why are the hard decisions NOT being made?
The Golden Gollum of Greatness won’t allow it?
I saw a picture of Pency and some pals praying away the coronovirus. That should do it, unless you’re an unbeliever.
This might be a redundant post, but Spain, Belgium, and France (and probably Germany) are about 9 days behind Italy’s number of cases, the US about 16 days. I’m supposed to go to a trivia night at a local pizza & beer joint Thursday. I think I’ll skip it…just because.
I spent yesterday in a hospital waiting area. A modern open design which is analogous to waiting in an airport terminal. Went to the cafeteria at 12:30. So crowded, there was no place to sit.
It was nice knowing everyone.
I’m curious, where was this? City, for example?
It was in Maryland. About 10 miles from the DC border.
Bianco’s projections are a bit faster than mine, since I expect the rate to slow as people become aware that each person needs to take action to prevent the spread. My projection is 37,500 cases by the end of the month, and 1,000 dead. Still low compared to the flu, which had a year head start, but I expect we will stop hearing that argument by the middle of next month.
The US had 36,000 deaths to the Flu in 2019. Wake me when we reach that number from coronavirus.
Remember that the flu strains that were active in 2019 started spreading in Jan-March of of 2019, then took the summer off, then returned and did their main damage between October 2019-March 2020. Since Covid19 started in the US just in the last month, think of it as next year’s flu. It is going to be around awhile.
Assuming that Covid19 “plays nice” like a normal flu, and stops for the summer, it will behave similarly, and do it’s main damage from October 2020 and March 2021. In that case it won’t reach 36,000 until October or so. If it doesn’t take the summer off, the US will impose mass quarantines to keep it from killing 1m in May. We aren’t going to let that happen.
My pharmacy texted me a week ago that a Rx was time to be refilled. I said yes, refill it. Got a computer call Monday saying my Rx had been ordered. Went to pick it up yesterday and the pharmacist said it had not arrived from Winn Dixies warehouse.
I may not have to wait for the coronavirus to kill me. The pharma China based supply chain may kill me first. Can my estate sue the company that relied on Chinese suppliers. If I could find the CEO who outsourced the supply I’d take care of him first but I’d be too sick to track him down
My wife’s blood pressure medicine has been in short supply and rationed for the past two months. Undoubtedly sourced in China.
Yesterday India had festival of Holi where people apply colors to other’s faces. This should have spread Covid virus to almost 700 million people. Wait for next few days for untreated or maltreated patients dying on the roads.
Remarkable. I hope you’re wrong, but you’re probably dead on.
Tweets just started working
Still not seeing the tweets, I almost never see them on any of your posts.
Still can’t post on this site, can’t see the comment box (I meant new comments, I can only reply to existing ones)
Anyone here know anyone with Covid19?
Not trying to be a dick. Just thinking maybe we could use this forum as a monitor of the spread.
I am in California and I don’t know a single person with Covid19 as of 3/10/20, either in California or anywhere in the US.
Tower: “WallStreet flight 1539, you are cleared for emergency landing on 22L”.
Wall Street Flight 1539: “We can’t do it… We’re going to be in the Hudson”.
Demographic data is lacking (beyond the worldometer study)… here is what I could find
So will this be bad? yes if you are 65+, have a medical condition, live “hard” or are one of the unlucky heathy folks that catches a bad case. But most, especially kids will be ok… so let’s do our part to keep infection rates down (I have a parent in the highest risk group). And I live in Seattle.
Wow ‘(I have a parent in the highest risk group). And I live in Seattle.’ Same here. I don’t particularly worry about myself and my kids (thankfully this doesn’t seem to be a major threat for them), its my vulnerable parent which is really worrying for me.
Every Governor in all 50 States must be very PROACTIVE with this virus and not reactive. Attack this problem immediately before it spreads like ITALY.
Just saw an interview with the doc who oversees ICU facilities in Italy yesterday. He said Italy has 800 ICU beds total and over 700 were occupied by CV patients. They are already doing triage to determine who gets a bed.
He also said the median age was 65 – which means 50% of their critical patients are under 65 and IIRC he said that most of those under 65 were otherwise healthy – not “compromised” by any other condition.
I still say that this virus is pretty much going to touch everyone eventually so you’re going to have to deal with it at some point. Just know that being under 65 and otherwise healthy doesn’t necessarily mean you’re safe.
Here’s something you aren’t considering, the number of beds per population… look it up, you will be dismayed. America has less even than Italy, which is already running into shortages and crisis in their medical response. America has FAR less that Korea or Japan. Among the elderly in the US I would expect an outcome more like Italy than like Korea or Japan, unless we are able to slow the spread of the disease and flatten the curve on rate of infection. So far I see nothing from the federal government to give me hope of that.
Dr in Italy on YouTube reported median age of death was 65
Here is the link on the Italy data from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51805727 – they don’t reference a site with the raw data.
I’ve been looking for the demographic data in WA, best I can find is that 70% of tested case are over 50 years old, no data on the deaths but since all are from nursing homes (except 1)… I would bet the average is 70+ years old.
If you have an older parent or high risk they should avoid people, especially kids that are still going to school. My guess is that kids are almost asymptomatic in most cased but able to spread it like mad – aka the reason most places are closing schools (Seattle will be out in a day or two max).
Italy hasn’t closed its borders, yet French and German cv numbers and especially number of deaths are only a fraction. UK numbers are not believable either. Hypocrisy is not a european trait.
U.K. numbers are an honest reflection of what we know. But they are not testing enough people.
My forecast is coronavirus will get stronger as we get into the summer. It will peak sometime in July and start waning by August and September. It is going to be a long year for many and nearly everyone is going to know someone that dies from Covid-19. A virologist on XM Sirius channel 121 said it is possible the virus gets stronger as we get warmer weather and mutates into something worse. I would be shocked if we get less deaths from this in the US then deaths on 9/11. My forecast is high 5 figures or 6 figures.
I was listening to that channel yesterday. Probably the same people as you. I was surprised that they basically said the Corona virus is no big deal and they were shocked at the irrational response and panic going on. They compared it to the seasonal flu regarding numbers. While there is some truth in what they say, the difference with this is that we’ve all had the flu, there is a flu shot, and we’ve always recovered from it. This is an unknown and spreads easily and rapidly. Rest, drink fluids, etc.
With the Corona, companies have to shut down operations and have their people work from home where possible. If they insist on requiring you to show up and one employee tests positive and spreads it, you’ll have massive lawsuits on your hands. Not worth the risk.
Will Coronavirus Slow Down In The Warmer Months Like Flu Season?
Your forecast is fit for the trash can. The bark of the media is worse than it’s bite. It’s a flu strain.
It develops into bilateral interstitial pneumonia. It’s not flu.
It’s apparent you know nothing about viruses. This is not a flu strain at all.
It’s a coronavirus. There are currently 4 coronaviruses floating around humanity that most of us are immune to. When we get it, we get a mild reaction (a cold) because our bodies already have antibodies to fight it off.
This is a completely new coronavirus and will make the 5th corona virus to infect humanity if it becomes established. No one has immunity to it (except those few that have already had it.)
It’s currently killing 2-3% of those who get it. A flu kills .05-.1 of those who get it, making this virus 30-60x more deadly.
Just using math, that equates to around 2-4 million deaths in the USA alone, assuming just half of us get it.
6 percent death rate of CLOSED cases vs .01 percent for flu.
Not justtheflubro.
Why aren’t there a lot of cases and deaths in FL? Lot’s of elderly?
Maybe the virus doesn’t do well in heat and humidity.
IT IS NOT THE FLU! Ten days of infecting those around you even before you feel sick! Asymptomatic spread during its incubation period. The CDC is still spreading misinformation about this.
If you are upset by the facts, the problem is not with the facts!
7 Tweets not showing for Me. Anyone seeing them tonight?
Had this problem before?
No, not seeing them either.
Mish, I think all the tweet links, even in older posts, are not rendering correctly right now, because I don’t see the links even in the HTML source. Instead see some rather broken-looking stuff like this:
PS The first line of this post says 10,000 where I think you meant 1,000.
Firefox under Ubuntu Bionic doesn’t show tweets at all unless “Enhanced Privacy Protection” has the “Standard” radio button set. That’s been true for months, at least, though, so doesn’t explain any problem@Mish or others may newly have.
I can’t see them, still have no general comment box.
Firefox browser performs really bad on this blog site. posting is 50/50
We are ordering some of our groceries on line for pickup at Walmart. That will help keep exposure to to a minimum for us.
Have been seeing a lot of angst from people who are sick of this virus story and want everything to go back to normal. Unfortunately for them, that’s not going to happen anytime soon. We’re up to 119 countries and territories with at least one case.
Nikkei is down a few hundred points again. Not looking so hot for tomorrow, but probably not a total bloodbath either.
Starting to see signs that reality is setting in. One of the major banking groups has announced three month payment holidays for anybody who needs them as a result of illness or job loss. My suspicion is more will follow suit and holidays will end up being 6 months to a year.
On the ground in the U.K. people are definitely starting to wake up, hence the panic buying. We are well stocked over many weeks and I am mostly working from home these past 2 weeks, but our daughter is still doing what kids do (not old enough for school).
61 new cases overnight including the Health Secretary and a cancer surgeon who knew better than the experts, came back from Italy and went straight to work, so that’s another cluster seeded.
Locally a couple of events were cancelled overnight at a horticultural gardens and a music festival. No reason given, just “postponed until later in the year”.
Wait for the ones that dont offer pay holidays and the mail service and internet aren’t working, or theres no one in their office. oops your late. Your house is ours now.