Italy Locked Down
Lead Image from Worldometers.
WA Governor Fears 64,000 Cases
NY Lockdown
Massachusetts Emergency
https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1237465481013088256
Comparisons to Italy
2000 Aircraft Grounded
Trump Proposes Energy Bailout
Hey, let’s bailout companies loaded with debt and leveraged to oil.
Instant Recession
CNBC notes Italy expands its quarantine to the entire country as coronavirus cases and deaths surge
Italy will expand the lockdown of the Lombardy region to the entire country, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said Monday as Italy’s case count surged, making it the country with the most COVID-19 cases outside of China.
People throughout the country of 60 million should not travel other than for work or emergencies, Conte said. He added that all public gatherings will be banned and sporting events suspended. The decision was made to protect the most vulnerable people in the country, he said, and the measures will take effect Tuesday and last until April 3.
“The right decision today is to stay at home,” Conte said. “Our future and the future of Italy is in our hands. These hands have to be more responsible today than ever before.”
Italy Plans Debt Moratorium
The Wall Street Journal reports Italy Plans Debt Moratorium to Cope With Coronavirus Lockdown
Italy is planning to introduce a large-scale moratorium on debt repayments, including mortgages, to help families and businesses cope with the coronavirus outbreak.
The announcement, made by Italy’s Deputy Economy Minister Laura Castelli in a radio interview, follows the government’s decision Monday to lock down the entire country. Economists expect the shutdown to lead to a sharp economic slowdown.
Relieving consumers and business from paying back debt could cushion the economy but complicates how Italy’s fragile banking system copes with the loss of revenue.
Italian banks have long been seen as a weak link in the European financial system. Stuffed with bad loans and suffering under an anemic economy, several have failed or been combined in the wake of last decade’s Europe-wide sovereign debt crisis.
Italy is in recession already, but if it wasn’t these events would surely trigger one.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
How close is Italy to defaulting? What is the action on CDS for Italy? Obviously ECB will try to contain but like most CBs they are running dry of ammunition.
One quibble with Mish’s lead graphic: “Lead Image from Worldometers.”
The two trackers below on COVID-19 in China don’t match. The first one is from Worldometers. The second one, from John Hopkins, keeps increasing the Covid-19 new China cases by about 100 a day, while the first one says it’s less than 100. John Hopkins claims they use a comprehensive tracking metric that does not just quote the official numbers (not clear what that is).
This is troubling, since if John Hopkins is right, new Covid-19 cases keep popping up. The thesis would then be that China has been lying on the numbers to date. Why is that important? Since China is on the vanguard, and if China cannot stop the virus (make the new cases go to near zero) then nobody can, also, it’s possible maybe millions are infected rather than 81k.
A conspiracy theory, for now. For now.
RL
My wife in a meeting at work said that they might need to prepare to do sales and other meetings long distance and everyone looked at her crazily, because they arw still under the impression that it is not as bad as the common flu….
Anyone know anyone with Covid19?
I don’t.
2008/9 all over except the critics of the bailout have all changed party affiliation. Is there a spine left in Washington DC?
Looks like the availability of a few more test kits, have finally started to open some eyes over here….
Ted what do you do in the industry?
Has anyone heard if they’re able to determine which CV-19 strain is circling areas, L or S?
I could not find an answer during a search. Just maybe you might be able to figure it out at
I think if they had an answer it would have been advertised. A week ago :
“Molecular epidemiologists will be keen to see whether there has been preferential seeding of either form in the various affected countries outside of China, and whether either form predominates in the subsequent ongoing spread from the early foci of infection.”
The answer is they don’t even know if l or s is a thing.
Very little research as of yet. Very small sampling. Corona uses a backup system to basically make sure it doesn’t move genetically much. It will mutate over time, but how much and how, is still to be determined.
This thing is brand new. We know almost nothing about it
Mr. Mish did you or someone else explain why Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Cambodia –do not have many cases of virus.
thanks
How do you know that they don’t?
Singapore has 166 cases. Hong Kong has 121.
Vietnam made it a crime if you’re caught having the virus and not reporting it.
Don’t think Vietnam will have many cases
These are all tropical climates. They have high humidity, and the March average temperature in the following places in F:
Singapore 82
Thailand 85
Vietnam 77
Philippines 83
Indonesia 82
Laos 78
Malaysia 80
Cambodia 85
The fact that these have low rates of spread gives us hope that as temperatures and humidity levels rise, the rate of growth will slow markedly in the Northern Hemisphere. On the other hand, places in the Middle East are also warm, but have high rates of spread. I’m guessing the difference is the humidity.
That’s interesting but is it the warm temps or more ultraviolet rays? There is some info out there about it but it applies to corona viruses in general.
Let’s not confuse correlation with causation.
I’m not confused about the difference between correlation and causation. The fact is that no one knows why some flu viruses tend to spread less quickly in the summer. There are tons of theories, including temperature, humidity, UV, being outdoors and less confined, being outdoors, and getting more vitamin d, among others. For every theory, data can be found to support it, and data can be found that disproves it, so it remains a mystery.
My point was that the slower growth in these warm humid countries gives us hope that this virus will slow down in the summer. Since I agree that there may be other reasons why it is slower in these countries, we really don’t know what will happen in the months ahead.
Looks like humidity is the key factor here – forget warmth. Or season. Got humidity?
If not, ya got nuthin.
And Russia , Russia is cold. In Malaga Spain day temp is around 80 and they have a large outbreak starting. I think temps and culture will help in many cases , but most likely is
Mentioning culture…I posted a picture of the hundred thousand fem gathering in Madrid a couple days ago. Here is another on how sociable the Spanish are…just happened the sec.gen. of a main party was infected and starting to show symptoms… and the other party leaders were present etc… at a public rally…
Awesome soundtrack – where do I buy it?
From the flight imaging ?
I should be fine in Kansas soon sweat bath
I’ve heard that Singapore has been very aggressive in testing, quarantine, and contact tracing, slowing the spread significantly. Can’t speak about the other countries.
I’m currently in Phuket and have found no signs of the virus travelling the island. All the locals have shaken their heads when asked. The hospital car park was pretty empty. Temperatures are being taken at the airport and tourist areas. Maybe 1 in 10 locals are wearing masks. Hotels are suffering with 50% occupancy as there are no Chinese. Given that thousands were here in January I think the heat must play a huge part. It’s crazy hot – hitting 40 degrees. I’d definitely rather be here than fighting over toilet roll back in the UK 🙂
Still not convinced higher temps are a cure-all. Australia is still hot and they had 23 new cases today. There was a scare in Hyderabad, India over the weekend, and it’s tropical there. Egypt is being widely accused of underreporting numbers. As someone else mentioned Spain is having a terrible time, and can we really say it’s cold in Italy and Iran?
I don’t know about the rest of SE Asia, but both Taiwan and Singapore were early case sites and clamped down immediately. They were much more aggressive in their approach than most of the world has been.
Don’t ask, don’t tell. They are terrified to report true numbers because they rely so heavily on tourism
“Hey, let’s bailout companies loaded with debt and leveraged to oil.” … and collect those sweet suitcases full of cash.
Trump is NUTS if he gives one red cent to bail out anyone, let alone the energy industry. I am in the energy industry(coal and natural gas) and I say let the free market do its thing and sort out the winners and losers. I am seriously starting to question Donald Trump’s sanity.
Amen.
unfortunately bailouts go all the way back — someone needed to bailout revolutionaries.
“At the heart of the ruling elite’s power is a politically untouchable elitist institution which controls the central institution: money.
This goes back to Alexander Hamilton in 1791.
First Bank of the United States, was a national bank, chartered for a term of twenty years, by the United States Congress on February 25, 1791. It followed the Bank of North America, the nation’s first de facto central bank.”
And this country already has so much debt. We don’t need anymore.
Trump has to bail out his buddies. I guess you are not on the list.
Someone said there are no atheists in a fox hole and no libertarians in a financial crisis.
That someone, like every other member of the indoctrinati stupid enough the believe a central bank has ever been any sort of useful institution, was both dead wrong and a rank idiot.
Quite to the contrary: When debt is unsustainable high, and financial “assets” are overpriced, a financial crisis isn’t just no excuse for a bailout. It is to be cheered on. A good thing. Something to celebrate. The health of an economy is a function of how accurately prices reflect underlying realities. Not how artificially high they can be pumped up by way of theft rackets for the benefit of useless, regime connected garbage.
The Dow was around 75 before the Fed was founded. America was better off economically back then. It’s got quite some ways to fall before it being too low, is even close to being some form of problem.
I’m still here, Ron. Let it all burn.
Coronavirus mortality in Lombardy is now 8%, more than double Wuhan! Lombardy health system is completely beyond ability to deliver adequate care – hence rationing who gets ICUs. It’s sad, so so sad. #COVID19 Let’s not let this happen to us America..Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
@FAScientists
Epidemiologist / Health Economist / Senior Fellow
If this s true than God help us all.
This report from an Italian Doctor is a good indication of what’s coming.
Rounded calculation:
Italy 170 per million infected
Lombardy 550 per million infected
China 55 per million infected
Hubei 1000 per million infected
Wuhan 5000 per million infected
Lombardy is roughly the same population as Wuhan ( 10mn) , Italy is roughly the same population as Hubei ( 50mn).
The figures used are official, however for China it is two months cumulative, for Italy it is closer to two weeks. Italy figures are expanding rapidly still, as are those of Europe. I expect the whole of Europe infected per million will surpass the whole of China infected per million. The resources available in Europe for Europe will be less than in China for China, the resources of Italy for Italy are already less than in China for China. In Lombardy at 550 infected per million the care services are already overloaded. Anyone can draw different conclusions from these figures, because the regional flow of aid is variable depending on country or territory , the rate of cases is variable , and Chinese figures are questionable, but I think the overall strain on European countries and their regions that this epidemic will bring are obvious enough, however the above figures are chosen to be read.
South Korea also has 150 per million infected, how are they managing ?
Looks like Italy is still on track for a doubling every three days or so.
Italy has a total of 800 ICU beds in a country of 60 million. Right now, they are treating close to 700 CV patients in those beds and they are already using triage to limit cases.
The decision to lock things down will help, but it’s likely too little too late.
But it’s just a flu. It will go away.
977 is significantly below the pace of the past few days. 3/7 = 1247, 3/8 = 1492, 3/9 = 1797. So if it turns into a trend its is a very positive development.
USA current total is now 950… That’s roughly where France was on 2/29. We will scale more rapidly due to the test kits only now being widely distributed.
Italy not France… I can’t edit.
The daily total isn’t as important as the trend over time. If it continues to decline over the course of the next 6 to 9 days, then yes it’s a good sign. However, if it jumps to 2000 tomorrow and 2200 the next day, then back to 1800 the day after…not so good.
Then again, what’s the real benefit of a doubling time of 4 or 5 days instead of 3? All that means is that you get to a million sick in 24 days instead of 20…
Either way, they’re still in the soup.
That 977 number is odd though and completely out of trend. I don’t know the reasoning behind it, hopefully a good one.
+2300 new cases today along with 200 more dead…
Japan: 13 beds per 1000 population
South Korea: 12.5 beds per 1000 population
Italy: 3.15 beds per 1000 population
UK: 2.8 beds per 1000 population
So, if you have more beds, does that encourage you to test more people, isolate them in hospital rather than at home? In the UK, the government is talking about TREATING people at home, not just isolating them there.
I checked the latest UK bed statistics (accurate to end December). 7,000 open NHS beds at that point. Thats everything except maternity, learning disability, mental health.
I don’t know about the testing thing – that’s a question for doctors in countries that have more beds.
I am just looking at the numbers. If the UK has 7000 beds, then they can withstand 70K patients at a 10% critical rate – but will likely begin to triage way before they reach 7000 – just like Italy.
Yesterday someone told me the US has 30K beds available at any given time. That’s 300K total cases. But as spread out as we are, you’d probably need to be close to a major medical center (big city) to take advantage of that. Good news there is that people not close to them may have an advantage re catching the thing in the first place.
I’m sure we’ll (UK) be in lockdown in the not too distant future.
Even if it was “just a flu” it’s still in addition to the regular flu, pneumonia and other seasonal viruses. It’s just as contagious too. That in and of itself is enough cause for concern.
Bailouts already? I’m shocked.
I guess if the whole economy implodes there won’t be any banks left to repay to anyway…keeps the vultures away.
A debt moratorium is much easier to introduce than to withdraw though :/
LMAO, wishful thinking. We’ll all be losing our homes due to missed payments and unpaid taxes while we can’t work and Mr. Bank will own everything you have for 50cent.
At first it’ll be a bail out, then when they don’t have enough for the casino, you will be bailed in. It’s the only way it will work this time around.
Never let a crisis go to waste…..
In Dystopia, any excuse to rob people, for the benefit of connected leeches, is a good one.
This capitalism failing …. again.
We should try Socialism.
No system is any good because the same greedy vultures always rise to the top. If it weren’t for that the one we have now might work perfectly fine but we’ll never know.