Will the unexpected consumer spending weakness continue? 
Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
The Commerce Department reports Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services for December 2025.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $735.0 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2024.
Total sales for the 12 months of 2025 were up 3.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2024. Total sales for the October 2025 through December 2025 period were up 3.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2025 to November 2025 percent change was unrevised from up 0.6 (±0.3 percent).
Retail trade sales were virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent) from November 2025, and up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 5.3 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 4.7 percent (±1.8 percent) from December 2024.
Sales Not Adjusted for Inflation
The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
It’s real sales that impact GDP estimate.
Retail Sales Fizzle in December
Economists missed the retail sales estimate for December by a mile.
The Bloomberg consensus was for a 0.4 percent rise. Instead sales were flat. October sales had a huge negative revision from +0.6 percent to +0.0 percent.
Real, inflation-adjusted sales were negative for the month and from a year ago.
Nominal Retail Sales Month-Over-Month
- Nominal: 0.0 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.0 percent
- Food Service: -0.1 percent
- Food Stores: 0.2 percent
- Nonstore: 0.1 percent
- Gas Stations: 0.3 percent
- Motor Vehicles: -0.2 percent
Real Advance Retail Sales Percent Change Month-Over-Month
Due to the government shutdown, there was no CPI data for October or November.
The CPI for December was +0.3 percent. With flat nominal sale, real sales were negative across the board.
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Detail
The vaunted US consumer is nothing but a mirage of inflation.
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Year-Over-Year
Year-Over-Year Retail Sales Details
- Nominal Retail Sales: +2.4 percent
- Real Retail Sales: -0.2 percent
Key Question: Will the unexpected consumer spending weakness continue?
In general, pullbacks in consumer spending have not lasted long.
But this was not expected, especially the huge negative revision to October.
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Still a lot of people discretionary spending on reataurants and bars.
How much of the YoY decline is due to tariff front-running?
Dec ’24 was the first whole month of businesses anticipating tariff uncertainty or, if one prefers, the last month without capricious tariff activity. I would think such comparisons would be distorted through the first 4-6 months of this year. This isn’t to say that the economic picture is encouraging in the U.S., as one must put effort into being optimistic.
Our Tiny Village in the Algarve of Portugal, Praia da Luz, is swimming with tourists young and old. Here, as it is in America, housing affordability is in the scheisters.
portugal and spain are my fav spots in EU. citizen of italia and pax dumbfuckistan. the world is big and so many gorgeous places. NZ and Oz wonderful, too. Tokyo and CDMX my favorite big cities. thousands of small villages from new england to norcal to russia to baja…..and all over this big beautiful planet.
A big beautiful Economy…until it is not.
ASIA TIMES, China moving early as confidence in US debt fraysBy Nigel Green
China is signaling a major shift in how it views US debt. Regulators have reportedly advised large banks to limit their Treasury holdings, citing “concentration risk” and market volatility. While this doesn’t affect official state reserves, it shows a growing desire to insulate Asian capital from a more unpredictable US fiscal environment under the second Trump administration.
It’s a really bad situation when non-store sales show almost no growth because that category was growing the fastest the past 10 years.
i went to my local low key, not fancy, but delicious, japanese restaurant in prime corner spot in my small city of 25k in hudson valley today. i go once per week usually about the same time, at lunch time. today i was the only customer. the owner and both servers talked my head off. i was giving them primers on buying themselves copper, silver or gold coins for themselves. the young gal server probably 25, was the most keen and understood and knew about the 1965 LBJ default. that made my day. i hand out a few copper coins per day as little tips or just gifts……..to help the masses, to protect themselves on this onslaught of our crumbling evil empire. i tell them what i eye witnessed in Russia in the 90s when the USSR evil empire crumbled and the currency went teats up, dead.
We have American Friends here in Portugal. They were celebrating the Election of a Socialist. I asked, “How does that work?” Answered: “It’s all for us.” SHIT!
which socialist are we discussing, old sport. i do believe most modern economies on planet earth qualifies for that moniker. if words have any meaning, anymore. Zohran to Trump to VZ to EU and Russia and japan………the real question is who is NOT a socialist. pro tip. human primates are socialist creatures. for the first 50,000 years anyway. so far, so good.
FUN FACTS. hitler and stalin and fdr and UK……and japan and china, were all socialists. if words have any meanings to modern humans. they really can get the common and middlebrow and rich people…….. people to do anything. anthropology 101. it answers all human primate behaviours. most other subjects people read or get lectured by school or media or parents, is pure unadulterated hogwash and bullshit. donald trump approves this message.
I continue to employ, grow and build. Yes, Trump is an idiot and pervert, but that does not mean my employees should suffer. All received end of year bonuses and I plan to employ more as the summer growing season approaches.
Multiple local farms are going bankrupt in addition to the three I already identified and credit conditions are tightening. As a cash buyer I have my pick of discounted assets.
In this case the Trump voters are getting screwed and it is only going to get worse as he harms our economy and global reputation.
good for you old sport. do you think, where you live some of those farmers just lie and said they voted trump to fit in with their neighbors and church ladies…….might be some closet trump haters…….? i too, for decades, have long been a cash only buyer in r/e. i’m waiting until the caprates come to my preferred entry point, near 20% or higher. i like beat up 100 to 200 year old 2 family houses with wonderful bones. this will be my 3rd go around at the very long r/e cycles. last time i purchased in 2011 and 2012 and sold in 2022 about 25 or so doors in dozen properties…… i have no clue where the bottom will be, but i wait for the damage to be done and then wait a year for a tiny recovery and i know the coast is clear. or that is the plan anyway. of course anything can screw you in the game of monopoly in real life as in child’s game. trading stocks is so much easier. for me anyway. i could do it in my sleep. in fact i take a few naps a day and enjoy lots of hobbies………
RE: Trump voting voters.
Anything is possible, a few could have. More likely that their wives did vote for Kamila.
That said, none can go public with signs in their yard not supporting Trump.
The crushing of the farming family is not new. Corporate amalgamations have been massive and have proven economics. Running a farm takes incredible dedication and awareness of the land and its status. Productive land has a pulse and a rhythm. I walk my lands daily and observe what is going on. I use electronic tools and satellite data in conjunction with intimate local knowledge to control pests and build strong, moisture holding soils.
My windrows break the erosive winds, capture soil dust and organics. They provide cover and habitat for beneficial wildlife and a plethora of birds, bees and beauty.
In contrast, corporate farms are paying me to remove their windrows so they can exploit every acre. Their costs are far higher along with a marginal increase in yield. The nutritional quality is lower. The depletion of organics in their soils increases their dependance on irrigation and expensive fertilizer.
Sure it looks ok in the short run, but I see their depleted soils and dependance on the aquifer as a pending disaster in the long term.
YES SIR. 100% AGREE. i have known this since i was a child. i had very wise old parents born in 1916. my wife of 45 years is an anthropologist and archaelogist. the monocropping modern farmers destroy soil, plants, animals and humans. the UK in india is a great modern story of this. they caused the famine. do you know about what herbert hoover and his wife, did in ukraine and russia famine. the most amazing act of humanitarianism in the past 200 years. all about helping the farmers of the USSR who were starving. PS i live in hudson valley, now. lots of old family and friends have farms for centuries up here. apples………..new england has the most organic farms……i do believe. norcal was another spot i lived. tons of organic farmers up in the hills away from the central valley of monocropping. the midwest was decimated by greedy fucks, too. glad there are a few guys like you out there. this is really not complicated. the EU figured it out. the amerikan empire only cares about one thing. money. been this way for 250 to 400 years. the rest is eyewash.
Out here in PA, my county has fewer than 200K residents and still 1,500 farms. But the end is nigh. One of those towns has lost 30% of its residents in the last FIVE years – can’t see data on farms this quickly, but it’s foreboding. Young folk also moving away, add aging farmers and you know exactly how the song ends. The forthcoming disaster may be underestimated even by those in the know.
I used to hide your writings, BMCC. Now, I up-vote your comments. Good on ya!
ok buddy. i am for sure a person who does NOT give a fuck what other people think in real life or online life. but sure. thanks.
Stores look slow and less cars are in the lots
I will not predict the future of retail sales but many people that I know are cutting back their spending
Less people to buy stuff.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-30/trump-immigration-crackdown-could-shrink-us-population-for-first-time
The only two things I’m buying are income producing assets. GLD, SLV, XOP, TLT, JEPI, SCHD, FXY and more. The money comes from interest, dividends or selling calls or puts.
And subscriptions to AI to create trading apps that make me even more money. I’m looking at integrating Kalshi into my data feeds, read below as to why….
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34702
The money rocket is about to blast off to the moons of Jupiter, are you on it?
beam me up, scotty. good for you.
i’ve been punting on politics since the 70s with the london bookies and now past few decades all the online prediction markets and futures markets and such. the discussion forums are usually hysterical. it used to be just wall street traders and political science professors and political insiders………..now it is wide open and everyone does it. which is even better………….i just don’t see any MAGA PEDERASTS getting the nod in 2028 for R nomination. but who knows. it’s one hell of a cult and evil empire. so never, say never. bring back sleepy genocide joe v trump for 3rd term.
Joe’s gonna be a pile of sawdust by 2028, and this is coming from someone who held his nose hard enough to pull his lever
I am not buying anything I don’t have to. This is my economic protest – why buy a widget at 75% tariff?
FUCK YES. WE ARE BOYCOTTING A TON OF PRODUCTS AND SERVICES. FUCK THE EMPIRE
Consumerism can die
How is this unexpected? The American consumer is DOA. Job losses + inflation will finish off this economy.
Exactly real retail sales are down but is this due to less spending or less people? Are the deportations/self deportations actually having any real effect on population? I’m figuring is probably the latter with all of the celebrities leaving the country 🙂
How will this affect the economy?
If it continues, recession – right?
If spending goes up … Does that mean anything?
If it’s stays flat… recession?
Thoughts!
I ain’t buying squat.
I’m not even buying that 😉