Nasdaq Composite Bear Market
Nasdaq 100 Index Bear Market
Dow Hangs By Thread
Russell 2000 Bear Market Accelerates
Amazon Bear Market
If you thought Amazon was a buy at $2000, you thought wrong. Expect another 60% decline or more, from here.
Christmas Eve Scorecard
- S&P 500: -2.71
- Nasdaq Composite: -2.21
- Nasdaq 100 Index: -2.43
- DOW: -2.91
- Russell 2000: -1.95
According to the Financial Times, this was the worst Christmas Eve session in history.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
There is no stock “market” any moar it’s the central bank “market” Why are “markets” crashing? The economy is “booming”,record low unemployment “rate”,GDP “rate”of 3%,inflation “rate” near record lows.so why prey tell are markets collapsing?”markets” should like the economy be “booming”,unless ,unless the central banks have decided they would rather get rid of trump,and the quickest most efficient way of doin that is crash the stock “market”
There are lots of reasons why markets are going down. Thinking that the market will move in response only to the current economic news is a common mistake, and is will always lead to poor investment returns. Markets actually move primarily in response to expectations of future economic results, and expectations of future interest rates, and also with regard to demographics. All three of these are negative at the moment:
“Mish: Any idea where we might see the bottom of this market?”
I am going to do a post on that, but in the meantime, we are not even close
Robert Reich
The Megalomaniac and the Stock Market
Monday, December 24, 2018
Trump doesn’t want the public to think the stock market has tanked because of Trump’s government shutdown, his trade war with China, and the $1.9 trillion increase in the nation’s debt caused by his tax cut for corporations and the wealthy. (Actually, these are the major reasons for the market’s drop.)
So he’s blaming the Fed and its chair, Jerome Powell, for raising interest rates. And he’s ordered his staff to find a legal rationale for removing Powell. (It’s highly unlikely Trump has legal authority to do this, but like every other illegal thing Trump has tried, it may end up in the federal courts.)
….
The Punch Bowl has been taken away…the Central Banks have a very large role Robert…no matter the disdain for Trump
Typical response from a partisan asshole with TDS. It’s funny he didn’t give credit for the rise in the market due to deregulation and tax cuts.
Trump is an idiot for bragging about it and should have known that the bubble was going to deflate at some point. It’s to bad non partisan objective news is non existent .
I watched this scenario last night into the wee hours last night with the DOW futures up 80 to 120 points, only to check this morning and see that everything went upside down again, this time around 7:00 AM. We have seen this same thing several times this month. Quoting the ‘experts: “This time, it’s different”. Yep it is… it sure is. Until the opening bell.
The stock market is NOT the economy. Therefore it can fall 100% for all I care. Burn baby burn.
The problem is the so called recovery is built on a massive bubble. If the stock market crashes so will the rest of us.
Don’t forget to account for the “wealth effect”. Baby boomers have continued to spend later in life than prior generations because they feel secure in their retirement, knowing that their IRA/401k has a healthy value. If the market falls significantly, they will very quickly conclude that they need to reduce their spending. Thus, while the economy drives the market, the market also drives the economy.
To put numbers on it, say a baby boomer is looking at retiring next year at age 65, with a 15 year life expectancy. Say he has $500,000 in his retirement account, and he expects a 5% return on his account. He can spend $47,000 a year in addition to his social security, giving him perhaps $70k a year to live on. But say the market falls 50%. Now he can spend only $47,000 a year for the rest of his life, a major restriction in what he can do.
One of the things that has given strength to stocks over the last decade was programmed buying as baby boomers automatically added to their 401k and/or IRA. Now they are starting to retire, and rather than adding to those, they will begin to withdraw. In preparation for retirement, traditional planning calls for shifting the asset mix away from stocks and into bonds to eliminate risk as people get over the age of 60. At younger ages, the thinking is that they can ride out bear markets, but as they approach retirement, they don’t have that luxury.
As Mish is fond of pointing out, if retiring people sell stocks and buy bonds, someone else has to sell bonds (or issue more) and buy stocks. However, those people would want a shift in relative pricing before they are willing to do so, so stocks would be expected to fall in the process.
Happy Christmas and a merry new year to all!
So far with only a few trading days remaining, the worst December EVER.
We are talking worse than 1931, so it is clear that this bubble has burst.
Da ship be sinkin’.
Mish: Any idea where we might see the bottom of this market? Some of the hedge fund guys I deal with think we might see a 50% or more decline of the DJIA if this problem isn’t handled correctly and investors really begin to panic..
And on a lighter note thank you for this wonderful website and all the great posts.
Merry Christmas to you and yours.
Handle what problem? Are you suggesting intervention to keep the problem from correcting itself?
The bottom will be at 18417.
Why that number?
Oh just a feeling. something slightly optimistic.
Not too far now. Only another 15%. Given the run up we have had do you think the bleeding will stop at that? Me thinks, we may be in for some reset this time around
Thank you for sharing. Your cycle model sounds interesting.
According to technical Analysis lore…All Gaps Must Close…see July 14-15 2009….last Gap Up…Nasdaq to 1800…similar to 2001 closing Gap…