The EV Graveyard Reckoning, Hardly Anyone Wants to Buy a Used One

The market for used EVs is plummeting. What will car rental companies do with the used ones? Problems started in China but have spread to Europe and the US.

China’s Abandoned, Obsolete Electric Cars Are Piling Up in Cities

Bloomberg notes China’s Abandoned, Obsolete Electric Cars Are Piling Up in Cities

A subsidy-fueled boom helped build China into an electric-car giant but left weed-infested lots across the nation brimming with unwanted battery-powered vehicles.

On the outskirts of the Chinese city of Hangzhou, a small dilapidated temple overlooks a graveyard of sorts: a series of fields where hundreds upon hundreds of electric cars have been abandoned among weeds and garbage.

Similar pools of unwanted battery-powered vehicles have sprouted up in at least half a dozen cities across China, though a few have been cleaned up. In Hangzhou, some cars have been left for so long that plants are sprouting from their trunks. Others were discarded in such a hurry that fluffy toys still sit on their dashboards.

The cars were likely deserted after the ride-hailing companies that owned them failed, or because they were about to become obsolete as automakers rolled out EV after EV with better features and longer driving ranges. They’re a striking representation of the excess and waste that can happen when capital floods into a burgeoning industry, and perhaps also an odd monument to the seismic progress in electric transportation over the last few years.

Shenzhen-based photographer Wu Guoyong was one of the first people in China to document the waste that results from frenetic development, taking striking drone shots of the piles of abandoned bicycles in 2018. In 2019, he filmed aerial footage of thousands of electric cars in empty lots around Hangzhou and Nanjing, the capital of China’s eastern Jiangsu province.

“The shared bikes and EV graveyards are a result of unconstrained capitalism,” Wu said. “The waste of resources, the damage to the environment, the vanishing wealth, it’s a natural consequence.”

Hoot of the Day

EV graveyards are a result of unconstrained capitalism.

Mercy!

The Chinese government literally forced people to buy the damn things. Biden is attempting the same in the US.

That article is from August. Let’s flash forward to December 21 to see how things are going in Europe.

No One Wants Used EVs, Making New Ones a Tougher Sell Too

What started in China is not limited to China. A second Bloomberg article reveals No One Wants Used EVs, Making New Ones a Tougher Sell Too

Because most new vehicles in Europe are sold via leases, automakers and dealers who finance these transactions are trying to recover losses from plummeting valuations by raising borrowing costs. That’s hitting demand in some European markets that were in the vanguard of the shift away from fossil fuel-powered propulsion. Some of the biggest buyers of new cars, including rental firms, are cutting back on EV adoption because they’re losing money on resales, with Sixt SE dropping Tesla models from its fleet.

The problems are expected to intensify next year, when many of the 1.2 million EVs sold in Europe in 2021 will come off their three-year leasing contracts and enter the secondhand market. How companies tackle this problem will be key for their bottom lines, consumer confidence and ultimately decarbonization — including the European Union’s plan to phase out sales of new fuel-burning cars by 2035.

“There isn’t used-car demand for EVs,” said Matt Harrison, Toyota Motor Corp.’s chief operating officer in Europe. “That’s really hurting the cost-of-ownership story.”

“One has to slash prices significantly just to get customers to look at EVs,” said Dirk Weddigen von Knapp, who heads a group representing VW and Audi dealers.

Biden Struggles to Convince People to Buy EVs, Only 12 Percent Seriously Considering

On April 18, I reported Biden Struggles to Convince People to Buy EVs, Only 12 Percent Seriously Considering

On July 13, I noted Despite Huge Incentives, Supply of EVs on Dealer Lots Soars to 92 Days

On August 20, I reported Clean Energy Exploitations and the Death Spiral of an Auto Industry

On October 16, I commented Wake Up Mr. President, Consumers Want Hybrids, Not EVs

More accurately, that should read Wake Up Mr. President, Consumers Don’t Want EVs.

GM Decreases EV Investment in Favor of Buybacks

And on December 2, I noted To Shore Up Share Price, GM Decreases EV Investment in Favor of Buybacks

Last month, GM said it would push back the opening of an electric-truck factory in suburban Detroit by a year. It also scrapped an earlier goal of producing 400,000 EVs over a roughly two-year stretch, through mid-2024.

Slam Dunk Ford Project Now Unclear

Ford’s EV plan is similarly distressed. Ford pauses and then scales back proposed Michigan facility backed by government funding.

Manchin Blasts Biden’s Definition of “Foreign Entity of Concern”

In the you can’t make this up department, Biden’s EV Subsidy Rules Leave Room for Chinese Suppliers

Depending on the definition of “foreign entity of concern” a number of things are floating in the wind including $7,500 tax credits.

Officials worked for months to define a foreign entity of concern but failed. It is not even clear if Ford buyers are eligible for tax credits. “Licensing technology, might be permissible under the rules,” officials said.

Who wants to buy a new EV on the basis a $7,500 credit “might” be allowed?

Q&A on What’s Delaying the Definition

Q: Why the struggle on the definition of “Foreign Entity of Concern”?
A: Ford wants to use Chinese technology but GM wants to block it.

For discussion, please see An Epic Battle: Ford to Use China’s Battery Technology, GM Wants it Blocked

My comment then was “Biden is guaranteed to upset someone. That’s what happens when you interfere in the free markets, taking sides.”

Biden is avoiding a firm definition hoping the problem will go away. But it won’t.

Green Fantasy

In the real world, The Green Fantasy Ends Because Consumers Don’t Want to Pay for It

EVs are not selling because despite massive subsidies to both the manufacturers and consumers, the latter via tax credits, consumers don’t want them.

But here we are, blaming this mess on capitalism. “It’s a natural consequence.

What a hoot.

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Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

There is no reason why those who can use electricity for most of their transportation needs (less than 40 miles round trip) use it, and the rest can continue to use oil products (trains/planes/trucks). It doesnt have to be either/or. There is always gonna be SOME oil (can be made from coal or natgas $$$$). Otherwise, we’d have no war.

Last edited 4 months ago by Scott
Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

I have a 300 mile range on my used EV. Dealers aren’t budging on price of Teslas. The value is actually quite strong. More chargers go in every year. Soon you won’t need oil anymore.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Teslas will never compete with a 2 minute fill-up. 🙂 (unless some kind of battery swap is possible someday) But more range and charging options wont hurt.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

ICE will cost more in comparison at some point. Breakeven in price is the next few years. Most of your charging will be at home in which charging connection is way less than two minutes except on long trips. In essence charging EVs clearly saves your personal time.

Old Sailor
Old Sailor
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

A recent study has shown you are pay the equivalent of about $17.50 per gallon of gas to charge your EV. Not to mention the extreme pollution created to manufacture one EV. No thanks. I’ll stick with my ICE.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Old Sailor

whoa there fella. Hold on. That information is just pure FUD.

PapaDave
PapaDave
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

“Soon you won’t need oil anymore”

Nope. Not even close.

You need oil to make the plastics that go into your electric car. And the tires.

Any steel in the car and frame is made in a steel mill that uses a lot of fossil fuels. Aluminum needs lots of electricity to produce, and a lot of that still comes from burning fossil fuels. Same goes for the electricity to charge your car battery.

link to visualcapitalist.com

Where are you going to drive that car? On roads made of asphalt, which comes from oil. Or on concrete roads. Concrete is one of the worst offenders for the creation of GHGs.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

The meaning I intended was in terms of energy. Several legacy auto manufacturers are going to stop producing ICE vehicles by 2035. ICE will be on a yearly decline on the way to 2035. The support for ICE is growing to grow thinner and thinner by the year.

PapaDave
PapaDave
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

“ The meaning I intended was in terms of energy”

It is disingenuous of you to isolate it that way. And saying “soon” is deliberately misleading. Currently 60% of US electricity comes from fossil fuels, 18% from nuclear, 10% wind, 6% hydro, 3% solar, and 3% other. By 2050, it is expected that renewables will double from the current 20% total to 40%. We will still need fossil fuels for a lot of our electricity. Perhaps “soon” means the year 2100 to you?

And what about all the other uses for oil I mentioned? How do you propose to replace the oil in plastic, tires, lubricants, asphalt etc? Never mind the thousands of other products that you use every day that come from oil.

Yes, every year there will be more EVs sold and fewer ICE sold. Currently 1 EV and 6 ICE out of 7 vehicles sold. But its going to take a long time to get to the reverse.

Legacy automakers are already cutting back on their EV plans. It doesn’t matter what mandates are put in place to stop production of ICE with EVs if they can’t be met. 2035 will soon become 2040, and then 2050.

Stu
Stu
4 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

An idea I have heard from some friends, and it appears to be picking up steam. Commonly replaced parts on GV’s are being bought up.
I gave it some thought, as I have always worked on my own GV’s (can’t do so with EV’s). A quick list of spare parts after purchase, or on their existing newer GV’s is put together and purchased for storage. When I replace my oldest GV, next year or so (120k on it) I am going to do so!!
Common parts that you know will go by 100Kk or so miles. Junkyards (still exist) are also a good resource for spare parts. Stock Up!!!

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

I talk of replacing oil for burning. Acceleration into EVs takes place as there will be less and less support for ICE mobiles. Investment is being affected by that already. There is no longer a longevity approach to ICE traveling. Everyone knows this will change. Everyone also knows the faster we change, the better it is for our living planet. This is a site for denial of such things, but reality is creeping into the resistant strongholds against change.

Stu
Stu
4 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Well stated as usual Papa, and you point out something that many still don’t seem to quite understand just yet. Nearly all forms of energy, still rely on an abundance of Oil to work.
Many of the climate change enthusiasts, don’t even understand this concept, as they push for more green energy.
The scam salespeople, all of them, are losing, and will continue to lose, as ideology and lies can’t hide the truth forever.
Thanks again for your post, and I am ahead still from your tip on a prior post!!

Enjoy your New Year!

PapaDave
PapaDave
4 months ago
Reply to  Stu

Thanks Stu. Wishing you the best in the New Year as well. Good luck with your spare parts and your investments!

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Stu

Please do NOT mention any specifics about tips.
You wouldn’t want to be helpful to us would you?

Last edited 4 months ago by Lisa_Hooker
Avery2
Avery2
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Soon you won’t need oil anymore?

Someone forgot to tell these guys –

Search | FUCHS LUBRICANTS CO. (United States)

and what about the tires? Yabba-Dabba-Doo brand.

Last edited 4 months ago by Avery2
Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Avery2

Oil in terms of burning for energy.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Do you mean oil in terms of whatever point you want to make?

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker

no

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

How old is your used EV? How many miles do you have on it? If you are getting 300 miles now of true range used, then what was the original range advertised as all EV’s lose range due to battery wear?

As for Tesla’s, I assume you mean USED ones because Tesla does not sell through dealers.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

I have rounded down. Its 310 miles. the car is two years old and in its prime.

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

A 2 year old EV (generally) won’t have battery issues yet. I still doubt that you are getting 310 miles of range unless you don’t use heating or a/c.

As the saying goes, you are talking your book.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

My last EV was 8 years old and whatever capacity loss it had wasn’t even noticeable. That one was rated 228 miles and I was really comfortable with its capability.

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Uh-huh.

TomS
TomS
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Soon, my a$$!

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  TomS

This decade soon. ICE isn’t long for the world.

PapaDave
PapaDave
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Oh for f*ck sakes. This decade? Why not tomorrow? Both have the same probability: zero.

You are becoming more and more extreme; and ridiculous. “Soon”, I will have to add you to my list of people to completely ignore.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

EVs to Surpass ⅔ of Global Car Sales by 2030, Putting at Risk Nearly Half of Oil Demand From Clean Technica.

There is really rapid change coming.

Jake J
Jake J
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

You had me until your final sentence, which is ridiculous.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

That is completely false. Renewable energy is replacing fossil fuels as we speak. By 2030, fossils are going to feel the bite of a smaller market share of energy provided.

Yes EVs will happen by way of FORCE more so than anything else. They will not do a damn bit of good for the environment.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

My used EV has a 310 miles range. Rural northwest Illinois is few and far between chargers geographically, but easy to reach and back with a 300 mile range car. On the way out to near the Mississippi river coming from the south suburbs, supercharged once and brought my mother home for Christmas on about a 210 mile jaunt on the last leg. Not that hard.

EVs are good for people who don’t drive far, have easy access to a charger, and for the early adopters who mistakenly brag they are doing something good for the environment.

But yes, by force, more will be sold.

TomS
TomS
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

And if Trump wins, the pace of conversion will likely stall.”

What the hell? On what basis do you make this claim, Mish! PLEASE RESPOND!!!

Sales are already stalling. Hell, GM stopped production on its BEV Blazer, because of “software issues”. Right? It doesn’t have anything to do with the $57K price tag. Oh, no that’s totally affordable.

Stu
Stu
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

I have been stating similarly on this thread for awhile, so I obviously agree. Until we have our own access to the raw materials for the batteries, what difference does it make? Even then, we need manufacturing as well.
I know many that feel the same, along with infrastructure and cost as well. The idea is on time, but the readiness is a decade away, for mass production. That is providing everything above has been resolved enough for the average Joe to buy…

Did I forget to add Trust in the Industry? JS…

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Stu

Tesla was cutting prices from over production. The supply chain is in good shape.

Stu
Stu
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Tesla I agree, but that’s it for now. They are also made in China, so cost is not the issue. Our Government and US Manufacturers, just made a deal for high wages, so no competition via price for any of them.
Many have already made changes to there production schedules, can’t drop prices, and especially without the Taxpayers Assistance via rebates or whatever they call them now days…
Going after X why? JS…
EV’s are going nowhere in America near term. No Money, no interest, no infrastructure, no Batteries, NOT Happening…

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Stu

So you say. Tesla plans on production of 20 million EVs a year by 2030. The NACS standard is accepted by all manufacturers now. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act has brought billions of investment into the United States mostly in red states. That helps to cement in politics. People make their money off of a product, they protect it. Like destructive FFs is doing now.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Stu

Those that can afford are the beginning buyers of EVs. Tesla and also China are making affordable EVs soon or now. Electric costs of travel are far lower than running on gas. ICE is swirling down the toilet. The flush is just beginning.

What You Need To Know About The US EV Charging Switch To Tesla’s NACS

from clean technica

In my previous article, I explained that Tesla Superchargers are so ubiquitous on Interstate highways that long-distance cross-country travel is routine in a Tesla. There were 1,782 Tesla L3 DC Superchargers (NACS) locations in the United States as of June 12, 2023. With an average of 8 stalls per Supercharger, that means about 14,000 stalls are available.
Also, the reliability of the Tesla Supercharger system is unparalleled. In 4+ years on 9 cross-country trips, I have never seen a Supercharger out of service and have never had to wait more than a few minutes for an empty stall. On a cross-country trip, you arrive at a charger usually at a very low level of charge. If the charger you plan to use is out of service, you are screwed.

Dene-Paul Elliott
Dene-Paul Elliott
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Is there a way that one can can buy a few of these “parked cars” as there is no way to contact the author of the video?

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago

There are folks that buy a vacation home. There are folks that buy a boat. There are folks that buy an airplane. And there are folks that buy EVs. On average pretty much the same class of folks.

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago

More bad news if you buy a Tesla. In the first case below, guy buys a NEW Tesla. One day later, the wheel falls off. Tesla tries to blame the problem on “prior suspension damage”? Say what? IT’S A NEW CAR!
——-
Tesla blamed drivers for failures of parts it long knew were defective
Wheels falling off cars at speed. Suspensions collapsing on brand-new vehicles. Axles breaking under acceleration. Tens of thousands of customers told Tesla about a host of part failures on low-mileage cars. The automaker sought to blame drivers for vehicle ‘abuse,’ but Tesla documents show it had tracked the chronic ‘flaws’ and ‘failures’ for years.

By HYUNJOO JIN, KEVIN KROLICKI, MARIE MANNES and STEVE STECKLOW Filed Dec. 20, 2023, 11 a.m. GMT

Shreyansh Jain was ecstatic in March when he picked up his first electric vehicle, a brand-new 2023 Tesla Model Y. He used a sizable chunk of family savings to buy it with cash.

“We were over the moon!” said Jain, an electronics engineer in Cambridge, England.

His exuberance came to a “grinding halt” one day later, with 115 miles on the odometer, Jain told Reuters. As he drove with his wife and three-year-old daughter, he suddenly lost steering control as he made a slow turn into their neighborhood. The vehicle’s front-right suspension had collapsed, and parts of the car loudly scraped the road as it came to a stop.

“They were absolutely petrified,” Jain said of his wife and daughter. “If we were on a 70-mile-per-hour highway, and this would have happened, that would have been catastrophic.”

The complex repair required nearly 40 hours of labor to rebuild the suspension and replace the steering column, among other fixes, according to a detailed repair estimate. The cost: more than $14,000. Tesla refused to cover the repairs, blaming the accident on “prior” suspension damage.

Jain is one of tens of thousands of Tesla owners who have experienced premature failures of suspension or steering parts, according to a Reuters review of thousands of Tesla documents. The chronic failures, many in relatively new vehicles, date back at least seven years and stretch across Tesla’s model lineup and across the globe, from China to the United States to Europe, according to the records and interviews with more than 20 customers and nine former Tesla managers or service technicians.

link to reuters.com

FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 months ago

Norway must have been the trend setter in Europe as far as EV s are concerned, a horribly cold country in winter of all places, how are they faring with this utter battery stupidity? I ve no idea , I am sure Mish knows….

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago

I did not see this issue raised in any of the comments below, so for your consideration, I offer the article below. This is from the UK, but I would not expect the independent USA insurance market to be much different.
———-
‘The quotes were £5,000 or more’: electric vehicle owners face soaring insurance costs
Drivers who ditched petrol and diesel to help save the planet face huge price rises in premiums
Zoe Wood
Sat 30 Sep 2023 05.00 EDT

Driving an electric car should be a win-win, saving money and the planet. So David* was shocked when the insurance on his Tesla Model Y came up for renewal, and Aviva refused to cover him again, while several other brands turned him away.

When David did secure a new deal, the annual cost rocketed from £1,200 to more than £5,000.

“My insurer was Aviva from July 2022 to July 2023, but when it was coming up for renewal, I received a letter stating that they would not be covering the Tesla Model Y any more,” David says. “I am a member of a Tesla UK owners forum, and lots of other people seem to be having the same issue.”

In the Facebook group, members share stories of horror renewal quotes, with increases ranging from 60% (up to £1,100) to a staggering 940% (a jump from £447 to £4,661, according to a screengrab shared by one driver).

link to theguardian.com

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago

This was copied out of quora. Basically Tesla wins based on they are doing the work to capture an expanding market. There are sore losers out there since Tesla is winning the capitalism game.

What are some reasons to hate Tesla? Do they think its better to drive a gas burning car over an electric one?
Here are some of the reasons that people hate Tesla in no particular order:
(1) Unions hate Tesla because it is non-union and because its advanced manufacturing techniques require fewer workers.
(2) Some conservatives hate Tesla because it is introducing novelty, and conservatism means clinging to existing ways.
(3) Liberals hate Tesla because of Elon Musk’s libertarian free-speech stance. They also object the the concentration of wealth in the hands of one person.
(4) The advertising industry hates Tesla because they use little or no advertising, and because Tesla has demonstrated that you can be successful without them.
(5) Big Oil hates Tesla because it is introducing technologies that will obsolete the use of fossil fuels.
(6) Traditional automobile manufacturers hate Tesla because Tesla is butchering its combustion engine cash cow and likely driving most of them out of business.
(7) Automobile dealerships hate Tesla because Tesla is obsoleting the dealership model, both for new car sales and the auto repair business.
(8) Competing EV manufacturers hate Tesla because Tesla can manufacture EVs less expensively than they can, forcing them to lower EV prices to non-profitable levels.
Many of these Tesla haters understand that climate change is real and that curtailing the use of combustion engines is a necessary step in dealing with it. So in spite of all of the reasons to hate Tesla, most of us thank our lucky stars that Tesla came along when it did. EVs are simply a superior technology to combustion engine cars. Evs will soon be less expensive than combustion engine cars. If you don’t drive one yet, you soon will.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

No problem Jeff.
Some people are foolish enough to try to contradict a man’s religion.

Rob
Rob
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

The earth is warming as part of an approximately 150 million year long cycle. Estimated that the earth experienced temperature minima 450, 300, 150 million years ago and recently. Estimated temperature range was ~ 10C to ~23 C. The earth cooled and warmed with no humans present. The human induced global warming scammers don’t explain past temperature variance with no human existence. Seems like the same scam as the Covid “vaccine”:would stop transmission even though transmission was never tested. Stop the taxpayer subsidies and let EVs compete with ICEs. There is a place for both vehicles.

Boneidle
Boneidle
4 months ago

Consider a recent case of an Uber driver who bought a near one year old low mileage Model 3. He was assured the battery was warranted for the remainder on the 8 year life.
He is a very high mileage Uber driver and in just over one year put on 120,000 miles. Battery died and now needs replacement. Has been quoted north of $20,000.
No warranty claim. Battery had gone over the mileage life. Plus over the rated amount of recharges.
The fine print came out when he appealed to the manufacturer. Too many super charges. He was doing at least 2 – 3 super charges per day.
He thought he was going to save on fuel costs by going electric.
Now he’s stuck with a car he can’t sell unless he changes the battery. Combined with the new car price drops and the fact things wear out on a 120,000 mile car besides the battery he’s now stuck with a boat anchor.

Then there’s the two cases so far of Hyundai Ionics who had minor damage to the battery compartments after running over road debris. Replacement cost for the battery is $60,000 – more than the cost of the car new. Insurance companies have written off the vehicles and as a result the owners insurance premiums have skyrocketed.

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago
Reply to  Boneidle

Be great to have had the URL’s pointing to these stories!

Mike Hunt
Mike Hunt
4 months ago
Reply to  Boneidle

No wonder so many Teslas suddenly catch fire just before the insurance runs out!

Dr Funkenstein
Dr Funkenstein
4 months ago

Don’t worry. The movement is underway to “encourage” (wink, wink) people to use bicycles and trains. Back to the 19th century!

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Dr Funkenstein

I myself prefer oxen.
They may be slow, but they are very very strong.

Jake J
Jake J
4 months ago

The graph doesn’t support the apocalyptic wording. There is already a way to measure battery health, but not many people know about it. That will change, because it will be in the interest of the dealers to make it known.

I have followed EVs for more than a decade. I have long predicted that range and charge times, and the availability of chargers, would be a big issue for EVs. But battery health wont be a show stopper in general. It will hurt some of them, but not all of them.

That said, I also predicted that Fords F150 Lightning would flop. That was apparent right away. There is a short list of critical failures on that one, so its issues are no surprise to me at all.

Mike, your blind hatred of EVs is showing. I have never once thought of them as causes, but only as cars. I strongly suggest that you take a more objective view. Not as any kind of shill for them, believe me. But your purple rose is over the top.

Doly Garcia
Doly Garcia
4 months ago

>“EV graveyards are a result of unconstrained capitalism.
>Mercy!
>The Chinese government literally forced people to buy the damn things.

I think you misunderstand the original meaning of “capitalism”. The original meaning, as defined by Karl Marx, who was after all the man who invented the word, was an economic system based on debt financing of enterprises. It doesn’t relate at all to the form of government or whether the government is authoritarian and forces people to buy certain things.

Over time, the world “capitalism” has been confused with a belief in free markets. But the two concepts are entirely separate and independent. You can have non-free capitalist markets, and there is a very good argument that they are what exists in China, which is why they no longer describe themselves as “communist” but “socialist with Chinese characteristics”. They have read their Karl Marx well enough to realise they can’t be described as communist. You can also have non-capitalist free markets, which is what existed in most of Europe before capitalism became the norm.

AussiePete56
AussiePete56
4 months ago
Reply to  Doly Garcia

Professor Google has failed me in my attempt to confirm your assertion that Marx defined “capitalism” as “an economic system based on debt financing of enterprises….”

Can you show me a source for this…?

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago

Despite being mechanically simpler vehicles, manufacturers have managed to find ways to introduce even more problems! Who knew? [lol]
——
Electric vehicles have almost 80% more problems than gas-powered ones, Consumer Reports says
NOVEMBER 29, 2023

Electric vehicles have nearly 80% more problems and are generally less reliable than cars propelled by conventional internal combustion engines, according to a new report from Consumer Reports. 

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) have an even worse scorecard, with an average of almost 150% more problems, the consumer group found. By contrast, ordinary hybrid cars are a “bright spot,” with about a quarter fewer problems than gas-powered cars, the analysis found.

link to cbsnews.com

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
4 months ago
Reply to  Christoball

And in Hartford CT EV busses caught on fire while in the bus corral. Fortunately nobody got hurt.

Boneidle
Boneidle
4 months ago
Reply to  Christoball

In my relatively small rural city, the local municipal council mandated the local bus country buy at least two electric buses. Mind you they used a bunch of borrowed and rate payers money to subsidize the purchase of the busses.
Later the council had to subsidise the local towing company to purchase a special heavy duty trailer to haul the busses back to depot when they too often broke down.
The buses are no longer allowed to go out of the city and are dedicated to a circular tourist traffic route.

jwill57
jwill57
4 months ago

Never see them for sale around here, how is the pricing???

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  jwill57

All over the map, depending on the make, model, and the dealer. At the lowest end, competitive with standard econobox fare. For mid-scale products, low 40s to upper 50’s. Not cheap, but equivalent to regular cars once you factor in lower operating costs (though that depends heavily on where you live – areas with lots of cheap hydroelectric have per KWH costs that are one third of mine. In those places you can take an axe to your fuel costs. Less so where I live.)

Doug78
Doug78
4 months ago

Reminds me of what happened to computers. For many years each year saw better performance at lower prices so when you bought a computer you knew the resale price would be bad. Same thing happened with flat screen TVs, mobile phones and just about all high-tech products.

Tex 272
Tex 272
4 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

True. But, as I recall, markets decided those outcomes. NONE were Forced upon us by Governments at every level! 🔦✝️

Doug78
Doug78
4 months ago
Reply to  Tex 272

Do you think the Internet was built without government subsidies??

SURFAddict
SURFAddict
4 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

i thank Al Gore every day…..

Sci
Sci
4 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

Your original post was about consumer electronics. The government never forced someone to buy a certain type of TV or computer or mobile phone. The market dictated the price and which companies survived…

Jake J
Jake J
4 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

There is no such thing as the internet in physical terms.

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

The problem is none of those items cost $40-$200k.

Doug78
Doug78
4 months ago

Instead of investing GM is borrowing money to buy back stock. Sounds like a winning strategy for the company.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

Definitely winning for stock holders which is what GM should be taking care of.

Plus they can always sell more stock and raise more capital in a few years if they decide they need it for EVs.

Sunriver
Sunriver
4 months ago

Nobody is next. I am purchasing a gas fueled half ton truck this weekend.

Unless a company such as QuantumScape or Toyota comes up with a solid state battery that can power a sedan for 800 miles per charge, and the infrastructure for charging is built out, EV is dead.

EV’s have been a rich man’s playground to this point. The common man has little to no interest.

Jake J
Jake J
4 months ago
Reply to  Sunriver

If the solid state battery story happens on both performance and cost metrics, ICEVs will be dead. If not, it will be quite the turmoil.

Nonplused
Nonplused
4 months ago

Laptops, phones, watches, and other devices with rechargeable-but-not-replaceable batteries are also worthless after a few years. Batteries are worthless after a few years. That’s just the way it is. So if the main cost of an electric car is the battery, yes, the electric car must be worthless after a few years.

Hybrids have the same problem. Don’t buy one of those either. Once the battery stops working, it’s not a hybrid anymore, just an underpowered gas car.

I also have opinions about turbo chargers. Those are awful and wear out to fast too. But at least they don’t cost $20,000 to replace.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  Nonplused

Battery swap-outs is the obvious solution, but in the case of a car, those batteries are a thousand pounds.

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

And often cost more than the car is worth at that point in time, assuming the battery replacement is even available. This is the fact that EV buyers do not seem to be able to grok.

Now, I am not talking about a completely dead battery. Batteries lose their ability to hold a charge as they are used and charged more. High power/fast charges deteriorate batteries faster than slow charges. Same as on your laptop or cellphone.

Last I checked around, Tesla, for example, guaranteed that the battery will hold 70% of its charge up to 8 years and//or 100k miles, whichever comes first. I believe most other manufacturers offer similar warranties.

So if your brand new car was rated at say 300miles between charges new (and your real world attainment was likely closer to 240 miles since I understand that you don’t want an EV battery to go to zero), minus the anticipated 30% wear means you’ll now be getting real world usage of about 170 miles between charges (and that could well be much lower depending on the temperatures where you live and whether you use the a/c or heater). And the max range number keeps going down from there.

Perhaps this number works OK for you. But it may not for others. And it certainly will make a resale more difficult, especially with the knowledge that replacing the battery with a new model is not an option due to unavailability or unaffordability.

jwill57
jwill57
4 months ago
Reply to  Nonplused

Depending on the model, the battery swap is easy…but don’t go to the dealer, those guys are thieves.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  jwill57

Swapping batteries in a flashlight is easy. In a car youre talking hundreds of pounds.

Chris
Chris
4 months ago
Reply to  Nonplused

Small turbocharged diesel electric power plants can replace giant batteries and be interchangeable between auto brands. They’re also serviceable. Turbos are vastly under used in the consumer market. Nobody talks about this because 95% of the population is technologically illiterate. But it doesn’t stop people from having dumb opinions.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Nonplused

About 80% capacity remaining after 300,000 miles. Most ICE vehicles are in the trash before that.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

No, no, no.
There’s 125% remaining after 50k miles.
You just gotta believe.

vboring
vboring
4 months ago

Used EV prices have crashed primarily because Tesla cut the cost of new EVs by $10k.

And because some EVs from a few years ago are badly outdated compared to today’s technology.

And because some models are mostly appealing to early adopters. Early adopters by definition don’t want 3 year old technology.

The entire story is that EVs are getting better and cheaper really quickly. This is a good thing, but sucks for the used EV market.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man
4 months ago
Reply to  vboring

EVs are getting better and cheaper really quickly

LOL….

My brother-in-law just signed a contract to order a Tesla for $94,000.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Bam_Man

The used Teslas are going strong. A used EV is better than a new gas.

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Like all things, for some people yes. For other people, it doesn’t work at all. One gas and one EV for a two/three person household is perfect for us.

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  Bam_Man

Ouch! Picking up a fully loaded Ioniq for less than half that.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man
4 months ago
Reply to  Brian

And get this – there is an extra MONTHLY “subscription charge” for the self-driving software.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  vboring

During the pandemic, you could sell your new Tesla EV for $10,000 more than you purchased it for. If new EVs are really still going strong, the used EVs are going to get scooped by those waiting for a lower price.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Actually you can retire by financing a bunch of EVs and selling them at a profit.Or, maybe not.

Last edited 4 months ago by Lisa_Hooker
The Captain
The Captain
4 months ago

I’ll say again, I think Chevy got it right with the hybrid Volt and then messed up by going all electric with the Bolt. For short jaunts of 20+ miles, the Volt engine never even comes on. I have a 2013 which when new was rated at 38 miles on a charge. I bought it in 2018 and never got more than 25 miles out of it. That was still just fine for me even in Texas where you can expect a commute for everything. Here in on Grand Bahama it was nothing short of a Godsend because 25 miles is the length of the island, fuel is expensive and import duty on ICE cars is a staggering 45%. But import duty on “green” cars like the volt is “only” 10%. And since nobody wants them, you end up being able to import them cheaply but then you end up with the equivalent of a regular ICE car but which also has some electric range. There is no performance compromise when running on ICE. Chevy quit building them because hybrid is expensive but it is really a great way to go.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  The Captain

Ive gotten lucky with my 2013 Volt. Been a max charge of 38 miles for 10 yrs/140k miles. But there is a lot of worry out there about Volts getting older and the battery (and the car) then failing.

Jason
Jason
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

I have one too and its been great, but the problem is if ANYTHING at all happens to the car its a total loss. Its way to expensive to repair for the insurer and for out of pocket. Ran over something on the road and it scratched the transmission housing which in a normal car can just be replaced with the volt its all attached to the actual tranny so had to replace the entire thing. Barely avoided a total loss- still it really is the best of both worlds. I think if they found a way to decrease the cost somehow it could be the way of future as it it dramatically reduces oil usage but does not eliminate it.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  Jason

Volts aint beanbag. 🙂 Spent $8000 this summer and none of it was even related to the battery or the electronics. Replaced all four radiators (a Volt has four of them all connected — fix one, you fix them all), front suspension, brakes and steering: bearings, calipers, hoses, sway bar, brackets, bushings, struts, control arms and CV axles. A Volt isnt for anyone who cant get a credit card.

Last edited 4 months ago by Scott
Avery2
Avery2
4 months ago

Garbage disposal haulers and their insurers will build this exposure into the ‘cost of doing business’ – for everyone.

Garbage dumped on northeast Austin street after trash truck fire: AFD (yahoo.com)

Whateva
Whateva
4 months ago

This feels like a BS article meant to misinform. I literally just bought a used EV. They hold their value well, regardless of what the graph up top says.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Empirical vs anecdotal 🙂

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

The used EV market is quite strong around Chicago. In Hinsdale Illinois there is a used EV only dealer and is doing well. There are a lot of used EVs in that area of the suburbs in which used Teslas are keeping their values well.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Ah, Chicago. The progressive liberal Democratic heart of the Midwest.
Hope springs eternal for those who believe. Most people in Hinsdale make more in a month than the rest of the country makes in a year.

Last edited 4 months ago by Lisa_Hooker
Brian
Brian
4 months ago

1) it’s way too strong a statement to say people don’t want them. They still sell a lot of cars. Just not as many as they thought they would, likely because…
2) the don’t make good road trip cars but they make fantastic commuters where the EV doesn’t pay as big a price for stop and go traffic.

Bought (actually leased) one this week in fact. Lower maintenance was a primary factor. I’m tired of the arguments when I find my wife’s car is 2k miles past its oil change date. She’s a bad car mom. Energy cost savings should be roughly $100/month but not a key factor. Charging stations not a concern since it’s going to ba an around-town car. Enough range to get to the mountains and back, so good enough for me.

Makes a perfect second car for the household.

Mish’s graph on resale values was a primary reason for leasing. I really don’t think they’re being accurate on resale values. The implied finance cost compared to a purchase is high, but it still is roughly a $3k advantage to lease rather than purchase when you compare against an all cash purchase. At least on what I bought. Not so on a few others we looked at.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  Brian

As a owner and user of a Volt, you go thru the same brakes and tires you go thru with any car, electric or not. And brakes are 500 an axle and tires are 250 each. Maintenance and repair savings may be hard to see.

The Captain
The Captain
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

You spend $250/tire for a Volt? LOL. Last set of tires I bought for mine was about $100 per tire installed.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  The Captain

Add in tax, balance and of course a $100 alignment.

Free Dubay
Free Dubay
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

Because of regenerative braking you do not go through brakes as fast. In fact you can go over 100,000 miles.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  Free Dubay

I replace early tis true, but I dont think Id wait for 100,000 miles.

SURFAddict
SURFAddict
4 months ago
Reply to  Free Dubay

ha ha!! you never heard of “compression braking” ??

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

Likely different on the Volt than most others with more recent architecture.

I’ve driven a Model 3, a Polestar, and now an Ioniq 6. In total, over 300 miles. I’ve rarely touched the brakes, so I don’t see how brakes could ever wear the same if you hardly use them. It really depends on how the user sets it up – if you set it up to drive with minimal energy recovery through deceleration, then your brakes probably wear faster. That’s not how most people set them up though. The recommendation is for “one pedal” driving, which makes the brakes almost unnecessary. In 300 miles, I think I touched the brakes maybe 2-3 times, and then only when parking (and it was a total brain fart on my part – I didn’t actually need to.)

Tires should wear slightly faster given the added weight.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Brian

Mish is part of the FUD delivery. New EVs are selling stronger than expected, used EVs in my area keep their value. I have always purchased used and I didn’t get mine for some great low price. Otherwise, why even buy new if the used EVs were so cheap. They aren’t.

1) it’s way too strong a statement to say people don’t want them. They still sell a lot of cars. Just not as many as they thought they would, likely because…

/climatecrocks

/2023/12/21/graphs-show-ev-sales-unexpected-jump/

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

I bought new – the price difference vs used just wasn’t enough. 1 year old Polestar was 4k below new.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 months ago
Reply to  Brian

If you leased, and presumably you signed the normal 3 year lease, why are you worried about maintenance?

Virtually all cars these days are maintenance free in the first 3 years (3-36,000) and if you leased you generally only get 12K miles a year. Cars need an oil change every 5K miles at most so you are talking about 5 oil changes (1st one is always free) and often you can get dealer to throw in a few free ones. At 36K miles you should also still be on the original tires and brakes too.

In other words, you should have no maintenance worries in 3 years with ICE or EV so should not factor into your decision.

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

It’s not the cost – quite honestly it’s the argument I have with my wife about once every quarter when i realize her car is well past its oil change date. Maintenance is about the hassle, not just the cost. I agree – my wife should be a better car mom, and these arguments shouldn’t happen. But they do.

It’s also a hassle given where I live to get the car to the service location. In short, it’s a lifestyle thing not a money thing.

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Synthetic oils don’t need to be changed as frequently as old oils. You can search Mobil 1, 20k miles. Here’s one hit.
——
Can Engine Oil Last 20,000 Miles? Here’s How Engineers Test That Claim
The newest synthetic motor oils claim you can go one year or 20,000 miles between oil changes. Here’s how oil companies make, and test, these new lubricants.

link to roadandtrack.com

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago

The hurdles for EVs to get over are going to be erased one by one. Its just a matter of time.

link to cleantechnica.com

Illinois To Require EV Charging At Rental Properties Starting January 1st17 hours ago
Jennifer Sensiba
12 Comments

recent article out of Illinois tells the story of a debate over a new EV charging law going into effect in the state. Earlier this year, Senate Bill 40 was passed, which will require single-family homes and newly constructed residential buildings with parking spaces. Starting January 1st, these properties must now include a conduit for electric vehicle (EV) charging, if necessary.
“We have to put in a conduit or a pipe from the breaker box to one location in the garage,” Illinois home builder Dean Graven said. “Teslas take 240, and other cars are 180, and if you get the cheapest electric car, you can plug into a 110 outlet. We got away from putting in something expensive that would cost thousands of dollars versus just a conduit system.”
As with a recent debate out of New Mexico, much of the debate during passage centered around costs. Property owner groups opposed the measure because they were afraid of high costs, but they now admit that the cost of simply providing conduit for future chargers is not that high.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Biased much. Should you read the article, you will see there is a compromise with the apartment owners. They are putting up conduit access and not the rest. This will change with time in which landlords will consider it a necessity to even rent their place, same as necessity to have a washer and dryer to have the good renters.

SURFAddict
SURFAddict
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Yeah Mish, dont call Jeffery G an Idiot! Even though he IS one.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Interesting. How many charging outlets must a landlord provide for a 12 flat? For an 18 flat? For a 24 flat? Then there are the two car apartment families.

Laura
Laura
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

And of course the rent will be higher to pay for these mandated EV chargers. Rent is still very high in IL. People are renting a bedroom in someone else home for $1,000+ a month.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Laura

Not a problem until they are charging $1000 for 8 hours of bedroom.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Illinois should mandate that everyone must be happy.

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

But what does a conduit mean? Would this be a paid charging station? I can’t see it being connected to each residents individual electric service and it certainly is not going to be free to all.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Jojo

Conduit is the metal tube with no wires in it. If I understand it correctly, you would need the wire, the breaker, and the 220 volt plugin. This keeps the costs down for the landlord and helps to give access to renters who would like to charge their EVs at home. It also mandates this minimal access for landlords who want to outright refuse charging to their renters. The landlord must provide this level of access.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Wrong.
A conduit is the connection between all residents’ pocketbook and the State Treasury.

KGB
KGB
4 months ago

As a practical matter every EV must come with 50 meters of retractable cord.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  KGB

50 meters is over a 150 feet. My EV charger cable is 25 feet.

KGB
KGB
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

25 feet won’t reach the third floor from the curb.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  KGB

Laws are being considered that apartments must make EV charging available. That is happening in Illinois now.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Jeffery Green

Illinois laws are being considered that require everyone to be happy or risk fines and/or imprisonment.

PapaDave
PapaDave
4 months ago

I have commented on this topic before. China has “graveyards” of rental bicycles, electric bicycles, and electric cars for a multitude of reasons; including government mandates, capitalism, technology, consumer preferences etc. There is no single reason, though it is tempting to try to point a finger at whichever reason you have a personal issue with.

There are a multitude of factors that come together to create this situation, but I will try to highlight a few of the most important.

Technology; this is a big factor; tech changes happen quickly; the Chinese people rapidly adapted to smartphones, and mobile payment; this allowed for bicycle rental firms to sprout up all over China (yes, Capitalism) where you could tap your phone, rent one of millions of bicycles for a quick 10-20 minute trip and drop off your bike anywhere; and get there faster and cheaper than a taxi could manage. Consumers reacted favourably to these rental bikes and preferred them to looking after their own personal bike. Then, millions of regular rental bicycles soon faced competition from electric rental bicycles, and then small electric rental cars and also Uber rideshare equivalents (capitalism again). Consumers quickly abandoned the pedal bikes and switched to electric bikes, and where useful, electric cars. As in many nascent industries, hundreds of companies start up and fail, as competition weeds out the weakest, and only the strong remain (yep, Capitalism again). The failed companies resulted in a lot of excess bicycles, electric bicycles and electric cars that no one wanted, particularly since newer, better versions were constantly being rolled out.

Three years ago, there were 500 electric car companies in China. Now there are 100. Soon there will be 20; then maybe 5. That’s capitalism. And it has resulted in a lot of unwanted older vehicles from failed companies, ending up in graveyards.

Did the Chinese government have a roll to play by enacting policies and subsidies? Of course. None of these things happen in a vacuum.

By the way, the US had over a thousand automobile companies in the early days of the auto industry. Free market capitalism whittled that down to a very small number of survivors.

Hope that helps.

PeterEV
PeterEV
4 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Don’t forget to add that crude oil is peaking in supply and no amount of extraneous drilling will change a natural dynamic. World supply peaked in Nov of 2018 and it may peak again around 2030. After that, it’s all downhill for supply and that’s from Exxon-Mobil.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  PeterEV

Its been peaking since 2005. Conventional oil production peaked (flatlined) in 2005, and then they found some more. 😉 Then the interest rates went to zero making frakking doable. Another problem peak oil never added into the calculus was oil DEMAND, not just supply. Economic factors dictate how much oil is actually needed in a given year. In recession years, less is needed.

PapaDave
PapaDave
4 months ago
Reply to  PeterEV

Actually, supply continues to grow, but the rate of growth is slowing as a result of reduced capex. I suspect your date of 2030 sounds about right for a peak in supply. And perhaps for a peak in demand. Oil companies like Exxon understand this and have altered their strategy from focusing on production to focusing on profits.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Agreed.
Oil companies never really focused on profits until recently.
Previously I believe they were operated as public charities.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  PeterEV

Nah.
World supply peaked last Thursday at 3:47.
Duh!

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Just looked at the number of EV models vs the number of EVs sold – I knew the market was crowded, but DANG! Clearly there’s going to be some attrition in the sheer variety, even if the overall market is growing. Your comparison to the early auto market days is appropriate.

Micheal Engel
Micheal Engel
4 months ago

India bought 5 Lithium co in Argentina, bc they think that ev is the future.
AMZN will sell Elantra, Tucson, Santa… at a steep discount. TSLA is down from
415 to 260.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago

Lets be clear: oil/gasoline/diesel will ALWAYS be the superior vehicle fuel. It is packed with energy, and can be stored and transported easily. The only reason to consider an alternative fueled vehicle is if affordable crude oil worldwide is or has peaked in production (top of the bell curve). The rich and the dictators will always have access to oil products regardless of price. But for the average person, $20 a gallon gasoline could be the future. Since the average person cannot afford that, electric vehicles are the best alternative to oil so far. Though during this transitional time, buying a dedicated (only) electric vehicle is insanity. We’ve just started to hear the stories about dedicated (Teslas mostly) cars running out of battery, and what that inconvenience means. For now, only DUAL-FUEL vehicles make the only sense. Like my Volt. 🙂 Which, of course, GM doesnt make anymore.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

Oh, by the way, we are paying the same price for a gallon of gasoline today that we did 11 YEARS ago (chicagogsaprices.com). This is an uphill climb …

PapaDave
PapaDave
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

Yes. And gas prices will continue to be pressured downward as more EVs and PHEVs are sold.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Oil is used for a lot of other things than just gasoline and diesel. Cheap plastics and drugs may not be so cheap anymore. 🙂

PapaDave
PapaDave
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

Absolutely true. But I don’t think oil is going to $150 or $200. $80-$100 is a likely range.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Pop, predictions can get you in trouble. Ask Jim Rogers (China) and Jim Rickards (inflation) 🙂

PapaDave
PapaDave
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

I also predict that most of my predictions will be wrong.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

This will not be a problem as the minimum wage will be $250/hour.

Karlmarx
Karlmarx
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

And the electricity comes out of the wall right?

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  Karlmarx

Out of the wall or some solar array, I guess. Problem is .. people are spoiled on 2 minute fill ups. Electricity doesnt charge up in two minutes .. in most cases not even two HOURS…

Chris
Chris
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

When you begin with “Let’s be clear”, it means everything that follows is just your opinion.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  Chris

I could edit that if I could 🙂 but I worked with alternative vehicle fuels for ten years. Theres a few facts there …

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

Really depends on the use. No fuel is perfect, and no one car fits everyone. As a second car, an EV is the perfect option for us.

Felix
Felix
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

The only reason to consider an alternative fueled vehicle … oil … peaked in production

More broadly, EVs run on any and all fuel sources. Short-hand: They don’t require Middle Easterners. 🙂

Katphice
Katphice
4 months ago

Both ICE and EV 3 year values are higher than pre-COVID. Don’t understand why ICE vehicles have held value at 70% vs. 56% pre-COVID. Fewer vehicle sales during COVID?

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
4 months ago
Reply to  Katphice

Bidenomics

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 months ago
Reply to  Katphice

A lot fewer vehicles than normal were made in the years 2020-2022. So if you want a car in that age range, you have to pay more than normal because there are far fewer available in the used car market.

Rinky Stingpiece
Rinky Stingpiece
4 months ago

What a scam. It just seems like the scale and frequency of scams is increasing.
This acceleration of gargantuan scamming seems to belie a great unraveling of the ginormous debt and demographic crisis into a highly volatile and unpredictable mess.

N C
N C
4 months ago

Now you understand Bidenomics. Scam spending on scam initiatives funded by scam money.

The Captain
The Captain
4 months ago
Reply to  N C

I would LOVE to place all of this at Biden’s feet but he is just another cog in the wheel of the Global Debt Ponzi (GDP).

PeterEV
PeterEV
4 months ago

Government subsidies are trying to tell you something and if you pay attention, you may grasp the future. Oil is peaking and natural gas later. If we don’t try to adjust to this fact, we become subservient to the laws of supply and demand. We need to make solar, battery storage, and EVs work.

We did something similar with aviation in its early years and it benefited us.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  PeterEV

Government subsidies are telling you to be much more careful about who you are electing to offices, and to pay more attention to the folks at the top of Government bureaucracies.

babelthuap
babelthuap
4 months ago

I’d like to as Mr. Wu if he thinks the EV graveyards are as bad as the graves of 45 million people caused by the CCP ordering the killing all them sparrows or no?

Regardless, both disasters were caused by commie mandates. Not capitalism and certainly not the free market.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago

The value of my 8 year old used Model S was 22,000 dollars in my area. After paying off the bank, I had 1 over 12,000 left. i bout a used Tesla Model 3 for 32,000. I don’t know how you come to the conclusion it is all EVs. Legacy autos were late to the game and will struggle for it. Used EVs are going for good prices in my area.

link to climatecrocks.com

Whitehouse.gov:

EV sales have risen rapidly during this period from roughly 20,000 sales per month in 2020 and 2019 to over 90,000 per month in 2023 (Figure 7). At the start of 2023, forecasters estimated that beginning in 2026, more than one million EVs would be sold each year, and by 2030, nearly 1.8 million EVs would be sold—more than five times the forecast in 2021 (Figure 8). Actual sales have surpassed these forecasts. More than one million EVs have already been sold in 2023—three years ahead of the projections made earlier this year and 18 years ahead of the projections made in the beginning of 2021.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Mish, Jeffery will retire early by buying EVs and then selling them at a profit,
It’s better than postal coupons.

JS from KY
JS from KY
4 months ago

If Something Cannot Go On Forever It Will Stop – Herb Stein
The overinflated price of cars can’t continue to go up and up with no end in sight. That includes penalties dished out to car companies for going over some arbitrary mileage number in order to subsidize EV’s that nobody wants. Well, most of the people who do want EV’s have already purchased them. I sure the heck don’t want one, nor do I even want to ride in one.

I wonder how long it will take and how many car companies have to go bankrupt for the powers that be to back off on the overregulation that’s causing the prices to go through the roof.

The Captain
The Captain
4 months ago
Reply to  JS from KY

Unfortunately, people think owning a car and a mobile phone is the global norm. It’s not. Many many many in the world do not even have electricity yet. Western economies see their low end citizens living very well only because of the debt that was used to pay for it. When the ability to take on debt collapses, well, many people will just decide that a car, a cell phone and regular meals aren’t their cup of tea, just like happens to poor people in most of the world.

Jojo
Jojo
4 months ago
Reply to  The Captain

Many many many in the world do not even have electricity yet.”

—–
That’s why they are hiking through Mexico to move to the USA! They heard about this magic stuff called electricity.

D. Heartland
D. Heartland
4 months ago

Our next Vehicle will be a Toyota Highlander SUV Hybrid. They are not cheap.

Rinky Stingpiece
Rinky Stingpiece
4 months ago
Reply to  D. Heartland

I’d rather build my own… if you have engineering skills, the cost is not so different.

Chris
Chris
4 months ago

The mindset shift from “I want a status symbol” to “I want reliable transportation” is too big for most. There are YT videos of people building their own and the comments are full of people wishing they could make the leap.

Nonplused
Nonplused
4 months ago
Reply to  D. Heartland

A hybrid SUV? Makes about as much sense as running a private jet on biofuels.

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  Nonplused

Think about it, though. A PHEV that gets 10% better overall mileage is more gas saved on a heavy vehicle than on an econobox. The bigger and heavier ones are probably the best use case out there. Kind of begs a different question on whether we need those big units (most of us don’t). But as long as people are insistent on owning them, then the PHEV route makes perfect sense.

D. Heartland
D. Heartland
4 months ago

My wife and I own a Hybrid and I say with conviction that it is the finest vehicle that we have ever owned. It is a PLUG-IN, so our range is 50miles, perfect for running around town on EV power with no fuel consumption for 90% of our TIME spent driving.

When we take a LONG trip, we leave it on “EV LATER” mode and it achieves 55mpg consistently and STILL shuts down to EV mode when stuck in traffic but the brakes regenerate the power…so, our longest trips have been OREGON to SOUTH DAKOTA and I kept it on EV LATER (meaning, USE ENGINE POWER) and never plugged it in once for a two week trip and we sipped fuel.

We are going back to SD to renew our Driver’s Licenses as we domicile in SD for income tax reasons.

N C
N C
4 months ago
Reply to  D. Heartland

If you don’t mind saying, which model and make did you choose? Real question, not trolling.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 months ago
Reply to  N C

Most likely a Prius as the Hybrid model achieves 50 MPG in gas mode.

rjd1955
rjd1955
4 months ago
Reply to  D. Heartland

I would like to know the make and model of your car. It sounds like you are getting good mileage off of your hybrid. Although you say you do not use much ‘fuel’ (gasoline in this case), you are still using energy. I am curious if a hybrid gets 30 miles per gallon using gasoline, how much fossil fuel needs to be burned to obtain the electricity require to obtain 30 miles distance on battery power alone.

rando comment guy
rando comment guy
4 months ago

I’m still waiting for that honest cost comparison chart between ICEs and EVs….

Rinky Stingpiece
Rinky Stingpiece
4 months ago

The cost is not simply in the manufacture, but in the number of refuelling stations.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago

Less fast charging stations will be needed than gas fuel pumps. Most charging will be done at home. Slow charging doesn’t matter there.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago

Internal combustion for now will always be the cheapest way to operate a car … until the oil gets more scarce …

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

Not always. For example, the KWH cost in Montreal (>90% hydroelectric) is so low, the EV route is insanely cheap.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 months ago
Reply to  Brian

Yes but that’s Quebec only. The problem is electric rates vary widely across North America so what looks great in one place isn’t so great in another.

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

That’s my point, but thanks for restating.

D. Heartland
D. Heartland
4 months ago

So far, what is gained by not having FREE MARKETS and open borders where the BEST PRODUCTS WIN?

Askin’ for a friend.

Christoball
Christoball
4 months ago
Reply to  D. Heartland

Interesting question. People flooding over the border from Mexican Countries have definitely been commoditized.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  D. Heartland

Free markets gave us ethanol (E85), methanol (M85) and natural gas cars in the 1990s. Dont remember that? No one else did or cared either. I was kinda in the middle of it. Alternatives to oil products does need to be “coordinated” so we dont have seven different alternative fuels. By the White House? Perhaps. Other countries set industrial policy all the time (Germany, Japan).

Ryan
Ryan
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

Yes, much better to have a top down policy driven by political considerations. That way we can force everyone to build the flavor of the month like natural gas powered cars. When it turns out to be a mistake we will be better off because we invested 50 times as much in that mistake rather than letting one company experiment with their own money.

This makes sense.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  Ryan

Germany and Japan still have industry and an industrial base and can make things. We exported a lot of ours. Im not saying it will be easy turning things over to Congress or the White House. Im just saying it can be done and is being done.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

You will have nothing and be happy.
Nothing at all.

babelthuap
babelthuap
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

US gave subsidies and grants for Ethanol (E85):

link to caranddriver.com

I don’t know about natural gas that much other than seeing government cars using it on military bases in the early 90’s. Didn’t last long.

Scott
Scott
4 months ago
Reply to  babelthuap

M85 (methanol), E85 (ethanol) and natgas all had shortcomings (I drove them all), and always will. Electricity seemed to have the best potential as #2.

Jeffery Green
Jeffery Green
4 months ago
Reply to  Scott

NACS set up by Tesla for fast charging standard was lead by business. The rest of the legacy and EV only manufacturers accepted it.

Christoball
Christoball
4 months ago

In any supply chain, or allocation system there always exists a component exercising some sort of unrestrained capitalism. Any system as a whole contains many controlled aspects, but human nature will always find someone to exploit any system in an unrestrained fashion “just to make a buck”. The” just to make a buck” and no other meaningful purpose in life is the poison often referred to as “unrestrained capitalism ”

Give the guy a break, I am sure English is his second language. I applaud his informative and revealing journalism.

Rinky Stingpiece
Rinky Stingpiece
4 months ago
Reply to  Christoball

Yes, we must always applaud Americans for managing to communicate at all.

Richard Moore
Richard Moore
4 months ago

Not replying to you but have a few comments for those here . True or false … 2 years ago the Biden administration put aside several billion dollars to construct charging stations . Not one has been built yet .
I believe most know that the planet’s population has paralleled the rise of cheap energy ( oil and gas ), From my perspective the move into a green fantasy will require a steep kill off of the worlds population. It must .

PapaDave
PapaDave
4 months ago
Reply to  Richard Moore

False. One has been built.

This just shows how long it takes these infrastructure programs to get going.

Of course they’re already breaking ground on a few more, and many more are “planned” or awaiting approval of proposals by the individual states.

link to reuters.com

Brian
Brian
4 months ago

Speaking as an American….yes. It’s a wonder we’ve made it to 250.

Frank Merrill
Frank Merrill
4 months ago
Reply to  Brian

We’re not quite at 250 yet, and 2025 still needs to be reckoned with before we get there. 2025 is not going to be pretty.

Brian
Brian
4 months ago
Reply to  Frank Merrill

I’m in finance. We round to the nearest thousand. Just be grateful I didn’t call it zero.

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