Continued weekly unemployment claims have fallen from 1.87 million on July 20 to 1.83 million on September 7. Why? 
The level of 27 week or longer unemployment hit 1.533 million in August of 2024. That is up from 1.203 million in February and 1.050 million in January of 2023.
Expiring Unemployment Benefits
- Most states offer 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.
- Many states with a maximum of 26 weeks use a sliding scale based on a worker’s earnings history to determine the maximum number of weeks they qualify
- Arkansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri, North Carolina, and Kentucky have a lower number of week.
- Massachusetts allows up to 30 weeks depending on conditions. Montana allows 28 weeks of benefits.
Benefits Expired
Other than Montana and Massachusetts, continuing unemployment claims die at a maximum of 26 week.
Continuing claims have been declining because maximum benefits have expired, well before 26 weeks in some states.
Continued Unemployment Claims
The above chart is more accurate than BLS data, but horribly misleading.
Unemployment Level 27+ Weeks Detail
March of 2023 was as good as it gets in terms of long-term unemployment at 1.050 million.
Since February of 2024, long-term unemployment is up by 330,000 (+- BLS Accuracy and Revisions).
That means current continued claims are off by a similar amount if we wish to discuss the real economy.
The Real Economy
Real Economy Chart Notes
- To understand the real state of the economy, we add the number of people unemployed 27 weeks or longer to the number of continued claims.
- Continued Claims are weekly figures. The above chart shows the monthly average of continued claims.
The Real Economy Detail
Real Economy Detail Chart Notes
- Those unemployed 27+ weeks bottomed at 1.050 million in March of 2023.
- Continued Claims plus those unemployed 27+ weeks bottomed at 2.556 million in July of 2022.
- Between May of 2022 continued claims rose but long-term unemployment dropped.
The third bullet point above tells a story of people expiring their benefits then rushing to find a job. Fancy that.
But that strategy is no longer working. In fact, it’s the opposite. People are exhausting their benefits, unable to find a job.
Unemployment Level 15+ Weeks and 27+ Weeks
Spotlight Jobs
August 22: A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions
September 6: Payroll Report: Manufacturing Sheds 24,000 Jobs, Government Adds 24,000, Big Negative Revisions
September 7: BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 Months
September 9: Fed Beige Book Conditions Are Worse Now Than the Start of the Great Recession
Ominous Trend
History suggests that once you hit 15 weeks of unemployment you are highly likely to get to 27 weeks.
Also see The McKelvey Recession Indicator Triggered, But What Are the Odds?
Good luck with this set of conditions. Just don’t lose your job.
I follow continuing claims each week on FRED. But I was unaware of their definition (generally 26 weeks) … and I knew nothing about the 27+ week series. Thank you Mish for a very informative and enlightening post.
Biden says he’s leaving a legacy that future Americans will commemorate.
Seems no false positive.
We’re in recession.
Reality sucks sometimes- especially if you let a group of baboons like the BLS and other like government agencies feed you the candy laced with intellectual/factual cyanide in it repeatedly.
Hezbollah senior op commander plus ten Radwan commander killed in Beirut. What will Nasrallah do next after such a bad week.
“But that strategy is no longer working. In fact, it’s the opposite. People are exhausting their benefits, unable to find a job.”
Can we add a SOME at the beginning of the 2nd sentence please?
FYI – this ALWAYS happens in a tightening labor market. Why is this seemingly being presented as something unique? It’s NOT!
The good news is that new claims have been failing for several weeks now.
Again, with $2T in deficit spending, the amount of time it’s going to take for a REAL recession to arrive is ANYONE’S GUESS. And, let’s emphasize the “guess” part, because that’s all anyone is doing nowadays, including JPowell.
The question is does the uber tight labor market keep a damper on inflation through lower wage growth and enough people run out of money due to lack of work? But even then, what happens if corporate profits don’t roll over anytime soon that would force more layoffs, heralding a recession? Both of these things could happen at the same time.
I need to go find the latest Danielle DiMartino Booth video on Making Money with Charles Payne. She’s been crowing since January that hell was coming.
Nice analysis, Mish. Kudos.
Thanks
What a farce. Everything.
FEDEX down 14% on disappointing earnings. Filling in gap up from last earnings report, in one jump down.
Stonks are up! Party like it’s 1999.
In the past, the Fed only cut 50 bps at the start of a cutting cycle in case of a severe deterioration in the economy or markets, such as the dot com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-goes-apeshit-powells-orwellian-rate-cut
But this time, we don’t have any absolutely, lock tight evidence of a deteriorating economy. It’s certainly slowed down, but for now at least, it’s reached that goldilocks stage and probably has been there for about 3-4 months.
What we have is an economy on life support … specifically a trillion dollars of new debt every 100 days… and that’s what is acknowledged…
How much is being thrown at zombie companies that are TBTF to keep them alive?
What other stimulus is being pumped into the dying corpse to keep it from dying?
Don’t ask Jean Claude Juncker cuz he’d say — we need to lie when it it really bad.
What I would say is when it is disastrously bad… say nothing. If cnnbbc told everyone the truth… we’d lose our minds and fall into deep despair.
The US led on nuclear fusion for decades. Now China is in position to win the racehttps://www.cnn.com/2024/09/19/climate/nuclear-fusion-clean-energy-china-us/index.html
Never believe or trust government unemployment or inflation numbers. They are Orwellian.
All governments [at every level] are run by liars and nothing they say should be believed. I. F. “Izzy” Stone, 1907-1989 🔦✝️
Especially right before an election.
Lose your job.
Run through the unemployment $$ looking for another.
Involuntarily leave the workforce because if you’re not on unemployment you’re not unemployed.
Get a job, lose a job, don’t have enough quarters to qualify for another unemployment benefit.
Or thereabouts.
WRONG! This is an old wives tale. Are you an old wife?
You’re counted as unemployed as long as you claim you [seriously] looked for work during the preceding 4 weeks of the survey.
Ah, there’s that vague word “seriously” again.
Would you direct me to the BLS definition of “seriously.”
But in general you are correct.
Out of work self-employed folks can consider themselves unemployed too.
But nobody listens and such stats are so small they’re irrelevant.
Fedex bad earnings and Apple slow phone sales are a big indicator to me that we’re creeping slowly into the abyss however the fed cut may extend things a little further out.
I still think things get ugly in 2025 but the fed could go all in and cut deeper next few rounds and extend things even longer maybe into late ’25.
Then again, if things blow up in the middle east, all bets are off.
Remember Japan in 1989…
I am thinking this is because fewer people are taking Covid Booster Shots… therefore fewer are getting maimed… unable to work… and claiming benefits.
I took the covid, flu and shingrex vax this month, feeling great. I need to go back and get a second dose for shingrex though so I can’t wait for that second jab in a couple of months.
Also bought some more big pharma stocks cuz you know, it’s all about profits.
I didn’t get vaxxed yet, but I’m feeling guilty, so I’m thinking of sending Pfizer a check for $100 to assuage my conscience.
Based on my analysis of medicare and medicaid spend, bmy, gild, & pfe are where you should be sending in your checks to assuage your conscience. .
and if you want to be generous add amph, bax, jnj.
disclosure: i own all of them and i reserve the right to change my mind at any point in time.
This is a good investment…
Why Don’t They Discourage Bad Dietary Choices and Stop Vaccinating?
Consider the impacts on the economy of not reducing the life spans of humans.
Let’s say 30% of the population of a country lived beyond 90 years. Pension plans would implode as there would not be enough money to cover redemptions. For those on public pensions, we could raise taxes to ensure pensioners get paid, but that would mean less money for schools, roads and other infrastructure. Government services would need to be dramatically scaled back resulting in huge job losses.
All of these elderly people would essentially be ‘useless eaters’ sapping the economic strength of the country to provide them with medical care and free bus passes, while they produce and contribute nothing.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/vaccines-are-population-control
lifespan is down.
I love being a useless eater. Its a great life. Thank you for paying.
Uh, Reparation’s on top of mind, it’s working for them I see!
Make sure you wear at least 2 masks. Maybe 3-4 just to be safe.
I wore one of these when the masks were mandated…
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0517/6113/products/P1050745.jpg
A few people threatened me cuz they thought i was taking the piss…
I tried to explain that it is important to cover your eyes as well cuz covid can get in through the eyes… and how the cloth masks are useless…
They were angry… maybe jealous?
Or maybe just stupid?
No face diapers for me!
A good mate of mine – in perfect health — fit… surfer… took all the covid shots…
Turbo pancreatic cancer… was given another shot as he started chemo – heart attack… doctors found no blockages so could not understand why he had a heart attack… they blamed it on the chemo — google does chemo cause heart attacks… no it does not.
He died this week… and he had no idea that he had committed suicide…
He is the third vaxxed friend who has died from turbo cancer recently… another has stomach and lung cancer… he’s next.
A couple of other fit friends (one plays semi pro hockey – 35 yrs old) have severe myocarditis…
Enjoy your Vaccine Roulette …
Your story is nonsense but everyone’s immune system is different anyway. Some people die from bee stings others from eating a peanut. Bruce Lee, physically fit, died from taking pain reliever back in 73.
There is no way to develop something 100% safe for 100% of the population. It’s never going to happen. So all that’s left is to look at the statistical odds and ask if you’re better off with or without the vax/medication.
If you know how to do math it shouldn’t be a problem, if you don’t well then all you have left are conspiracy theories and incalculable risk.
Here ya go Eddy.
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability
You need to keep on shooting those boosters…and playing Vaccine roulette
And btw – two of the guys with myocarditis… the symptoms started literally within a few hours of the Covid Shot….
I drove the hockey player to the emergency dept after he collapsed walking 50 metres to pick up his mail… the attending physician could not understand how an ultra fit young hockey player could be experiencing such intense chest pain…
He called one of the big hospitals for advice on what to do – I listened in on the call – the cardiologist said – and I QUOTE:
“My phone does not stop ringing with doctors asking for advice on how to treat young men with serious heart problems”
Oh and I have a mate who is an oncologist … he tells me that the number of young people with stage 4 cancer since the covid shots rolled out … is OFF THE CHARTS.
There actually is a cure for stupidity … it’s called booster shots … keep on shooting
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/there-is-no-cure-for-stupidity
“…Your story is nonsense but everyone’s immune system is different anyway. Some people die from bee stings others from eating a peanut. Bruce Lee, physically fit, died from taking pain reliever back in 73…”
Doesn’t this statment lend support to Fast Eddy’s comment (roulette)? Seems so to me.
For me, I evaluate the risk of poor outcomes from disease X before I consider taking medication for it. I don’t take yearly vaccines. Why? Well, because I’m fit, eat healthy, and have a healthy mind (the mind body connection is real). In my view, most disease is caused by poor diet, lack of movement, and chronic stress. Get outside and touch some grass!!!!!
The Covid shots are seriously unsafe. Conspiracy, not conspiracy theory. The CDC hid the death safety signal for 2 years. Hid the V-Safe data for 2 years, until sued for it. There is a cover-up going on.
“So all that’s left is to look at the statistical odds and ask if you’re better off with or without the vax/medication.”
That is infinitely preferred to an elected official taking that choice away from you! Many countries have come a long way in a couple years.
So sorry for you.
Never had heart attack, no one in my family has had heart attacks or cancers and we all took the vax. my family line lives into their 90s or 100s so I think I’m good.
But if your theory is true for some then I need to start researching the heart attack ecosystem and position for profit.
Perhaps a savvy pharma firm will make an anti-covid vax and we can profit from there too. The possibilities are endless!
Good for you! Clearly not everyone who shot the Death Juice has had a heart attack
But do keep on shooting …. Safe and Effective … right hahaha
Body builder Doug Brignoli died one week after his bivalent booster. He said that the vax critics would need to admit they were wrong if he survived the booster. He lost. If you feel fine, that’s great, but there are too many who are not, for the Covid shot to be considered safe.
While the short term is down, the trend from the post-COVID lows is UP. I tend to believe there are a combination of Biden policies causing this. Bidenomics drove up costs that threatened the survival of small companies. Illegal immigration tempted those small companies to replace people who are legally allowed to work in the US with those entering illegally and willing to accept well below minimum wage. My thesis is supported by a previous MISH post that showed employment at small businesses was falling while employment at larger companies was increasing.