Ponder the implications of the headline and note the obvious bluffs.
Cullen Hendrix, writing for Barron’s, reports Trump Is Focused on Ukraine’s Critical Minerals. Here’s What Ukraine Really Has.
The deal President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are expected to sign Friday hinges on a bullish view of Ukraine’s critical mineral wealth. Both parties have reason to project optimism. But significant questions remain about Ukraine’s mineral endowments and the economic viability of extracting them.
So how vast are Ukraine’s resources of these prized materials? The answer depends on whom you ask and some arcane but important mining industry terminology.
Those proven resources aren’t exceptionally vast, suggest the United States Geological Survey’s “Mineral Commodity Summaries,” considered an authoritative source. In 2024, Ukraine’s share of global production of these minerals didn’t eclipse 1%. For reserves, only titanium and uranium, and potentially graphite, are significant but still small. Of course, it isn’t surprising that Ukraine’s mining sector may have contracted due to the recent violence. Russia annexed Crimea and began a proxy occupation of Ukraine’s eastern territories in 2013, and launched its full-scale invasion in 2022. Prewar (2013) production levels for manganese, titanium, and uranium were globally consequential but modest, as were reserves with the exception of manganese. In 2013, Ukraine’s manganese reserves were second only to those of South Africa.
Some academic studies suggest Ukraine’s mineral resources are potentially much vaster. A 2022 study by geologists associated with the Institute of Geology at the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv suggests the country has large deposits of these minerals, plus tantalum and others. An infographic published by the Kyiv School of Economics indicates Ukraine has deposits of 20 of the 50 resources the European Union has identified as critical raw materials.
But these studies need to be contextualized in the parlance of the mining industry. “Deposits” are simply concentrations of particular minerals that have been identified or inferred from geological markers. “Resources” are those deposits that have been identified and are potentially extractable. “Reserves” are the subset of resources that are economically viable given current technology and market prices. Deposits and resources are typically so vast and widely distributed that the USGS doesn’t bother reporting anything but global estimates.
Assuming these deposits are commercially viable, bringing them to market will require significant investment. The price tag of the greenfield Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada is estimated at $2.93 billion in just the first phase; expanding capacity at Rio Tinto’s Rincon lithium operation in Argentina will reportedly cost $2.5 billion. These figures only account for the costs of building and operating the mine. They don’t include exploration costs, and mining companies won’t just take Ukraine’s word for it. Operating and construction costs in Ukraine could be lower than in the U.S. and Argentina, but any projects will likely come with substantial geopolitical risk premiums to attract investors.
About the Author
Cullen Hendrix is senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and fellow at the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.
Mish Guidelines on Dealing with Trump
Given the total lack of trust anyone can possibly place on Trump honoring any deal, the best approach is along these lines:
1) Tell Trump how brilliant he is, 2) Offer him something that costs little but sounds great and lets Trump brag, and then 3) Trump either takes it or not. 4) Respond accordingly.
See The Tariff Clown Show Continues with Another One-Month Extension for Autos for general discussion on dealing with Trump.
Regarding “Respond Accordingly”
Both Trump and Zelensky, but especially Zelensky, have reason to trump up the value of a deal.
But unlike Canada and Mexico which can respond, Trump knows, and has accurately stated “Zelensky has no cards”.
Thus “respond accordingly” is off the table. Ukraine is in no position to respond to anything Trump says or does, then or now.
The Unfolding Minerals for Peace Fiasco
On February 28, I commented Trump-Zelensky Meeting Implodes, Trump Says “Come Back When You Want Peace”
Put a minerals’ deal with Ukraine temporarily on hold, but Zelensky “has no cards”.
Note to deal signers: Work out an agreement in advance and short statements in advance. Don’t make stupid comments about continuing war in a peace deal, and don’t try to get more at the signing than you agreed to.
European Leaders Renew Support for Ukraine
On March 1, NPR reported European Leaders Renew Support for Ukraine after Zelenskyy’s Stormy Meeting with Trump
I read that and thought. So what? What is Ukraine going to do without the US?
I did not think European solidarity changed anything. And that turns out to be correct.
Trump Cancels All Aid to Ukraine
On March 4, I commented Zelensky Seeks Deal One Day After Trump Cancels All Aid to Ukraine
Yesterday, Trump paused all military aid to Ukraine after a disastrous meeting with Zelensky last Friday. Now what?
EU solidarity was meaningless. And now Rubio demands an apology. It should not have been this way.
Blown Deal Signing
Both sides should have insisted on a “glorious signing” with short prepared statements. Instead, we had a public negotiation fiasco in full display.
You can place some blame for the blown signing on the US, but most of it belongs on Zelensky.
Zelensky had a golden opportunity to over-hype the value of the minerals, thank Trump for his aid, promise to work to together to develop the mines, and offer to work with Putin to do the same.
Some of you may think Trump is sucking up to Putin. But how does it matter?
I posted the reality on February 24 in Ukraine Already Lost the War But the EU Hasn’t Figured That Out
A negotiated settlement, land for peace is what I said in 2022. Terms now include mineral rights.
The loser in a war does not get to dictate terms. It does not matter what anyone thinks about Trump taking sides.
The pragmatic reality is Zelensky had no way to “Respond Accordingly“.
It’s not even clear that Trump is siding with Putin. A good case can be made that Trump understands Putin’s red lines and is acting accordingly in advance, to speed up a deal.
Regardless, it doesn’t matter because Zelensky was not and never will be in a position to react.
So the best thing for Zelensky to do was hype up the value of the minerals Trump would get if Trump would help Ukraine develop them.
If Trump sees great value in the minerals, then Trump would want to protect them. And the more moderate forces in the administration would have a shot at promoting that idea.
Importantly, Trump never took supplying Ukraine with weapons off the table.
For now, it does not matter if there are great mineral deposits or not because it will take infrastructure improvements, weapons clearing, and time to develop them. The important thing was for Zelensky to sign a deal with Trump.
From every standpoint, it was a huge mistake for Zelensky to try to get Trump to offer US troops to enforce peace at the public signing because Trump already ruled that out.
Zelensky had two options: 1) make the best of a bad situation even if he didn’t like the terms or 2) make matters worse.
Zelensky chose option two and quickly regretted it.
I am not a big fan of might makes right. Nor am I a fan of unconstitutional executive orders because they are likely to blow up and delay getting things done the right way.
As a side note, see Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Pause on USAID Payouts for the consequences of overreaching, because overreaching applies to Trump too.
Everyone has to deal with the cards they are dealt. Instead, Zelensky chose an obvious bluff despite the fact that his cards were face up on the table.
TEF: “Mish, any guess as to who is the brains behind this administration’s policies? Who is the president listening to?”
Everyone is listening to the same person: Trump
Unlike the first administration, Trump is surrounded by people who believe in his agenda. There may be some moderates like Rubio, but it’s also possible Rubio is 100% in. Thus, its essentially a circular, self-reinforcing, if not amplifying, feedback loop.
Anyone who disagrees is (or will be) discarded.
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I added this comment to my post
For now, it does not matter if there are great mineral deposits or not because it will take infrastructure improvements, weapons clearing, and time to develop them. The important thing was for Zelensky to sign a deal with Trump.
What’s the running odds of the Trumpeter offing the Musk?
“Thus, its essentially a circular, self-reinforcing, if not amplifying, feedback loop.”
We are heralding the Stupidularity!
I own stupidularity, I own everything.
I’m trying to think of a witty reply, but all I can do is create fake account names to try and be an obvious troll and push deranged wokefascist propaganda with it, by pretending that Musk is somehow in charge.
Aren’t you clever and industrious! How many emails did you try before you guessed it?
Really got under your skin, didn’t I? You are wildly insecure in your beliefs, obviously.
Even though it was the neocons/neolibs who instigated this war – which was obviously unwinnable for Ukraine from the outset – Trump seems to feel the need to paper over NATO’s loss with a bogus economic win. Not entirely a surprise, given how fully Americans have absorbed Ukrainian (USAID-funded) propaganda.
Trump can go big, go long or go home. He is choosing to go home. That involves declaring victory (for America) first and then go home. First he pulls out. Waits for the dust to settle (when Ukraine is incapable of fighting anymore) Then he swoops in, claims his slightly delayed victory prize. The value of the prize is simply whatever you claim it to be until it is actually developed and product headed to market to generate returns. He won’t even be in office by then.
Fortunately, the E.U. is rushing in to demonstrate to all America how foolish it is to continue the war in Ukraine. They are going to send in thirty thousand troops into a combat zone with a half million troops fighting.
If he can work it (and he might just do it) he will get the half of the reserves in the Russian territories thrown into the mix so everybody gets involved in hopes of getting rich. And get the Europeans to put in the development money. Russia organizes the rail transport to the Russian ports and ships. Hey, it might even happen….maybe. Better than war!
Well, if we get there and there aren’t any rare earths, we can just leave, right? I hope that they have something besides lithium. The world seems to be awash in lithium.
I recall reading that there are plenty of “rare Earths” in the Asteroid Belt.
This is why we should have a real space station orbiting Earth with factories for processing captured asteroids for their ore.
Stop dillydallying Musk!
He’s on a 20 year plan.
That’s why he’s having all those kids. Who do you think will be the first to go to Mars?
Basically he’ll tell them, the good news is your dad is a Trillionaire. The bad news is you have to go to Mars and back to get the inheritance.
What’s rare about “rare earths” is public tolerance for the environmental damage caused by extracting them.
It’s not about how much rare earths there are in Ukraine, it matters what kind of deal Trump gets.
Even if it’s 51%/49% of 20 pounds of Lithium rock salt, Trump can call it a WIN. lol
This is exactly why Z should make ANY deal. Trump will be gone in four years or less and Z can just declare that any contracts with the US were signed under duress and are void.
Trump probably knows about the rare mineral hype in Ukraine. He wants a US occupying force there without calling it an occupying force.
No one knows the value of Ukraine’s minerals until China stops all exports as a weapon against other countries. At that point we will know the value of the deal
“Anyone who disagrees is (or will be) discarded.”
The world’s richest man (soon to be the world’s first trillionaire) will not be discarded. He will call the shots on the things that are important to him. Right now that’s DOGE.
That’s how the world works. He who has the money makes the rules.
Nobody has any money, it’s all just numbers on a screen. What people have is relationships.
And armies.
The headlong flight must continue, no matter what happens.
The Earth’s carrying capacity has long been exceeded, but instead of rationalizing our excessive consumption, we have shifted into higher gear, consuming ever more. Global economic growth must continue indefinitely, whatever the cost.
If the mineral concentration of metals-minerals decreases, we move more tons of earth. If oil extraction begins to decline due to the depletion of existing fields, we drill much more. If financing becomes more expensive, we print more money.
The “music” cannot stop, because if it does, the precipice opens up before us. We have created a system that can only function if growth is infinite and therefore, we cannot stop increasing the extraction of resources, nor can we slow down population growth, nor can we stop the increase in the amount of money in circulation, nor the unstoppable increase in debt.
But we are reaching the geological limits of resources. Once we have extracted the easiest (and cheapest) raw materials to obtain, we have to work hard to extract the deepest, most technologically complicated deposits and, above all, the deposits that consume the most energy. When technology is not sufficient to ensure the necessary quantity to continue growing, the system collapses. And not all the money in the world can prevent this. But while we are reaching the limits, everything seems under control, although the clearest symptom that something is not right is an unstoppable growth of debt, which breaks with the economic cycles experienced until now.
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2024/11/la-huida-hacia-delante-debe-continuar.html
by Fast Eddy .. “The Earth’s carrying capacity has long been exceeded…”
SAYS WHO????
There is plenty of SRO!
Zelensky signed a deal with the UK, 17 Jan 2025, selling their rare Earth metals to them.
A strategic alliance, no selling of rare earth minerals.
The minerals and ports part of the deal was in a secret separate agreement that was only obliquely alluded to in the public document.
Every time they have a war, they say “there’s gold two feet deep mate”.
Shhhh! Don’t tell this to Trump.
Wouldn’t matter: I believe he’d say hype trumps reality anyway.
There are plenty minerals, but not rare earth elements. It matters not, because Zelenski signed all natural resources and infrastructure, even ports over to the British a few days before the inauguration. The deal in minerals was all messed up way before the fateful day. Charades and Trump not happy for reason.
The good thing for Ukraine is that under their constitution, Zelensky hasn’t been a valid president since spring of 2024. The secret deal with the sneaky Brits is invalid.
And so is anything the Z signs with the Usonians.
I think that if we threw several hundred billion bucks at UKR for the war, a couple of billion here and there for mining and production is a better use of funds.
The Soviets were pretty good at extracting the riches out of the soil. There is a reason why they didn’t bother with the reserves the western Soviet Ukrainian Republic: they were not economically viable even in a communistic regime.
Da comrade A!
I dunno Mish, Grok 3 says Ukraine has a significant amount of the minerals the United States will desperately be needing for the AI fueled world of tomorrow.
How many rare earth minerals does ukraine have
Thought for
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20 web pages
To answer the query “How many rare earth minerals does Ukraine have,” it’s important to first clarify what is meant by “rare earth minerals.” In common usage, particularly in discussions about natural resources, this phrase often refers to the rare earth elements (REEs)—a group of 17 metallic elements that include scandium, yttrium, and the 15 lanthanides (lanthanum through lutetium). These elements are critical for high-tech industries, such as electronics, renewable energy, and defense. While they are found in specific minerals like bastnäsite or monazite, the question likely seeks the number of distinct rare earth elements present in Ukraine’s reserves, rather than the number of mineral deposits or the total quantity of material.
Based on available information, Ukraine is recognized for having significant deposits of rare earth elements. One detailed source lists the following rare earth elements found in Ukraine:
Cerium
Dysprosium
Erbium
Gadolinium
Holmium
Lanthanum
Lutetium
Neodymium
Praseodymium
Samarium
Terbium
Thulium
Yttrium
This totals 13 rare earth elements. These include yttrium and 12 of the lanthanides, with promethium, europium, and ytterbium notably absent from this list. Promethium is typically excluded from such counts because it is radioactive and not found in significant natural deposits, while the absence of europium and ytterbium may indicate they are not present in economically viable concentrations in Ukraine’s known reserves, or the list may simply be incomplete.
Additionally, some sources mention scandium as another rare earth element present in Ukraine. Since scandium is one of the 17 recognized rare earth elements and is not included in the list of 13 above, its presence would increase the count to 14. However, references to scandium are less consistent across sources, often appearing alongside other critical minerals like lithium or cobalt, which are not rare earth elements. This suggests some uncertainty about whether scandium is definitively part of Ukraine’s rare earth reserves.
Ukraine’s rare earth deposits are significant, reportedly accounting for about 5% of the world’s reserves, and the country is noted for holding deposits of 22 out of 34 minerals classified as critical by the European Union, including several rare earth elements. However, no single source provides an exhaustive list of all rare earth elements present, and geological data suggests that while rare earth elements often occur together, not all 17 are necessarily found in every deposit.
Given this, the most reliable answer is based on the explicitly listed elements. Ukraine has deposits containing at least 13 rare earth elements, as confirmed by the comprehensive list above. The potential inclusion of scandium could raise this to 14, but without consistent confirmation, it’s prudent to treat 13 as the minimum established number. The exact total may be higher, possibly approaching the full set of 17, but this cannot be confirmed with the available data.
Thus, Ukraine has at least 13 rare earth minerals (elements), including cerium, dysprosium, erbium, gadolinium, holmium, lanthanum, lutetium, neodymium, praseodymium, samarium, terbium, thulium, and yttrium, with some evidence suggesting scandium may also be present, potentially bringing the total to 14. Due to incomplete data, the precise number remains uncertain, but 13 is the most well-supported figure.
Aware of that opinion. But it does not change anything!
Even if the deposits are good, Ukraine’s still has no cards … right now.
“Ukraine”. Does that include Zaporozhye, Kherson, Lugansk and Donetsk? Because those oblasts are Russia now.
It doesn’t matter.
Trump wins. That’s all about.
Mish, any guess as to who is the brains behind this administration’s policies? Who is the president listening to?
Miller.
He’s a good man.
Do you REALLY not know the answer to that question?
You guys are crazier than I am.
But not as crazy as Emperor Soros and his Satanic minions who control the leftist media, Marxist puppet regimes and extremist wokefascist activists via the WEF. He’s obviously not in control, hence your ineffective trolling.