“More action to come.” We can be assured of that.
Image courtesy of AAA National Average Gas Prices.
Yellow highlights and percentage calculations (current vs month ago) are mine.
It’s hard to say how much of the war is yet to be priced in. Some of the increase is seasonal.
AAA notes a Seasonal Shift Towards Rising Prices.
WASHINGTON, DC (February 26, 2026) – Spring weather may be weeks away in much of the country, but the seasonal rise in gas prices is underway. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline went up by more than 5 cents this past week to $2.98. Refineries are beginning the process of producing summer-blend gasoline which contains pricier additives to help reduce evaporation during warmer months. Gas demand is also expected to increase next month as spring break season kicks off and more drivers take road trips.
At least part of the increase is seasonal. I expect we will soon see a war-related spike on top of any seasonal trends.
US Will Sell Political Insurance
Truth Social Link: Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all Shipping Lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible. No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD. The United States’ ECONOMIC and MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH — More actions to come. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
America’s Development Finance Institution
U.S. International Development Finance Corporation
1100 New York Ave NW, Washington, DC 20527
DFC Products
- Debt Financing: Direct loans and guaranties for tenors as long as 25 year
- Equity Investments: DFC direct equity investments can provide critical support to businesses committed to addressing global challenges and advancing American strategic interests.
- Investment Funds: Support for emerging market private equity funds to help address the shortfall of investment capital.
- Political Risk Insurance: Coverage against losses due to currency inconvertibility, government interference, and political violence including terrorism. DFC also offers reinsurance to increase underwriting capacity.
- Project Development: Project development support is a key lever in accelerating eligibility for additional DFC investment.
The cost of political risk insurance just went up.
War Live Updates from the Wall Street Journal
- A drone struck the parking lot of the U.S. consulate in Dubai, according to a U.S. official and Dubai’s government media office.
- The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, came under attack twice on Tuesday, causing part of the roof to collapse, according to people familiar with the matter.
- President Trump said Iran’s military has been largely neutralized, including its navy and air force. He said the U.S. could start escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz—the strategic waterway where Iran warned it could begin attacking ships.
- Israel struck a building Iranian clerics use to choose the country’s supreme leader. Iranian official media said the building had been evacuated.
- Six U.S. troops have been killed so far. Over 700 people have died in the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, the Red Crescent said.
- The State Department says it was getting charter flights and military aircrafts for American citizens who want to leave the Middle East.
Trump Says U.S. Navy Will Escort Tankers Through Strait of Hormuz If Necessary
President Trump said Tuesday that the U.S. Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary
“No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD,” Trump wrote in a social media post. One fifth of global oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump Says Iran’s Military Has Largely Been ‘Knocked Out’
President Trump said Iran’s military has been largely neutralized, several days after U.S. strikes began. Regarding Iran, he said: “They have no navy, that’s been knocked out. They have no air force, that’s been knocked out. They have no air detection, that’s been knocked out. Their radar has been knocked out…Just about everything’s been knocked out.”
O.K. Now What?
If Trump forces an oil embargo on Iranian oil prices will skyrocket.
Without troops on the ground what’s the plan for a regime change?
Related Posts
March 3, 2026: How Did the War In Iraq Impact Fed Rate Cut Odds?
So, far the change is very subtle.
March 3, 2026: Iran War Roundup: How’s the War Going? Did You Vote for This?
Trump Ponders Backing a Civil War, Rate Cut Odds Drop, More.
The fact of the matter is Trump’s own generals said Iran was honoring Obama’s deal with Iran. So did our US allies and the commission.
This was war of choice, and a stupid choice at that. For discussion please see Hegseth Says the Goal in Iran Isn’t Nation Building, It’s a Peaceful Deal
I have heard rumors that he is going to promise a car in every garage and two chickens in every pot. I’m not holding my breath.
On another note – insane promises that don’t make sense are easy to make, and no one expects stupid promises to be fulfilled.
Who is paying for this “insurance” with the Navy escorts?
US Government/taxpayer to provide insurance and naval protection to send oil to India, China, Japan, Korea, Paakistan.
Your Grand Children.
Probably the escorts and other Only Fans professionals stranded in Dubai.
Debt to America!!
IT IS JUST gimmick to cool down oil market!
obv USA adm. did not expect Iran blow off oil sources in middle east!
Wow. False flagging attacks on Saudi now? This stuff is so crazy that it might be true. What the heck is going on?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0naXov8vT4g
I don’t like Tucker but I don’t want him to end up like Charlie Kirk.
And the evangelicals cheer with joy!
You’ll believe everything you’re told to believe. Good boy.
insurance structured that such event is rare ! so it is manageable w/in time of frame
noway it will cover CONSTANT FEAR OF LOSING OF SHIPS
IT IS JUST gimmick to cool down oil market!
obv USA adm. did not expect Iran blow off oil sources in middle east!
Who could have possibly predicted such an outcome? It’s just such weird thing for them to do!
=offer insurance
to remind you
USA debt
03-02-2026 – 38.8 trln
03-03-2025 – 36.2 trln
1 YEAR DEFICIT IS $2.6 TRLN AND RISING LAST FEW MONTHS
alx
EU LNG crunch coming
Qatar stops production
No way of getting the floating gas bubbles past Hormuz
Russian LNG carrier on fire in Med
All LNG carriers being diverted from Atlatic to higher bid Asian countries
They better hope global warming kicks it up a notch before winter.
It is winter right now
Suddenly countries are lining up for sanctioned Russian oil.
Suddenly GCC countries are begging Russia to solve the Iran war not to inflict them.
replaying the played from the last war
arming Kurds for attacks in Iran
The Kurds should just take the weapons and ghost us. Save them for the next round, and find a partner that won’t betray them.
The Kurds claim territory not just from Iran, but also, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Arming them could have other consequences than them just doing the bidding of the West to fight against those in power in Tehran.
Basically this is McCain’s Moderate Rebels v2.0
Can’t improve much on unlimited and forever.
Narcissist coping is reaching delusions of the strait-jacket variety.
Please please please — can we please have just a little less winning winning winning Mister President? What was that about having Georgia Meloni begging Iran for a ceasefire? On the first day?
nothing like trying really hard to not look at the weak spot in the armor
He is bluffing like always.
This. fucking. clown.
Rex Tillerson has probably beat himself to death by facepalming by now.
Right now the Abraham Lincoln Aircraft Carrier group has left the Arabian Sea and is headed far far away into the Indian Ocean.
US forces are retreating from the area.
It is the destruction of US radars that Trump is projecting onto Iran, seriously impacting US Air Defense detection and targeting.
If Trump keeps this up we will be moving into Baghdad Bob territory.
Back when it was a bit odd for somebody to lie to your face like that… ah the good old days.
Iran named a new supreme leader anyway. Alireza Arafi. His opening statement was not what you’d call an olive branch: “The time for negotiations is over”. So the bombing achieved precisely nothing except turning a succession process into another martyrdom narrative.
Things are looking pretty bad in Bahrain.
There is zero reason for anyone to negotiate with Trump. He never keeps his word.
Trump to Offer Political Risk Insurance and Guaranteed Protection for Oil Tankers ?
Next Donald will offer —Anchor Insurance –that is somehow Guaranteed to Float.
It would be interesting to hear Trump‘s plans for evacuating more than a million Americans from the Middle East. Clearly, the Middle East right now is not a place where American citizens should hang around.
The plan is ‘buhbut BIIIIIIDENNN!”
Rubio came close to openly admitting there is no plan.
They didn’t think about them at all. They didn’t think about anything. They are just doing shit.
Indeed, that bellend Hegseth with his ‘warrior ethos/lethality’ bs must be in 7th heaven.
What could go wrong? Exercise fiscal power & give the foreign military missiles some more prime targets in the strait of Hormuz. Plug in money printer & press.
I’m looking forward to what all the armchair statesmen on this site have to say about the massacre of the Persian Guardians’ Council, which Israel is taking credit for.
Maybe it’s not quite as dirty a trick as that business with the mobile phones a few months ago. It looks as if we shall have a world dominated by the British-American-Jewish secret government (which is what I think it is) for a while longer.
Think we’ll see the return of Spontaneous Human Combustion? They allegedly have space lasers, after all.
I’d abhor the practice, but you can bet I’d watch it on YouTube.
building was empty according to reports
It will be interesting to see how this will work: insurance back up and navy protection.
How many ships will accept these conditions and be escorted? How many escort ships can our navy provide? Will they be able to reinstate normal traffic, or just some portion of it?
Will the US-Navy escort tankers moving oil from Saudi, Qatar, UAE, etc that are headed to China?
Even if escorting ships is successful, will Iran then target oil and gas loading facilities in other countries instead of the ships? Qatar has already halted LNG production (20% of global supply) and aluminum production (4%) because of Iranian missile strikes. And the countries in the Persian Gulf are rapidly running out of missile interceptors.
Only time will tell.
This would give China the opportune time to invade Taiwan, while the US is distracted, if it really wants Taiwan. If successful, they can block all chip exports to the US for missiles, jets, etc.
Got exit strategy?
I don’t see China needing or wanting to do that. They don’t want a needless confrontation that interrupts their march to dominance as the world’s preeminent electro-state. China plays the long game, and will patiently wait for Taiwan to welcome them. While they watch the US continually waste their resources on counter productive military campaigns.
In the meantime they will keep expanding their electricity production, which will reduce their need for oil.
I find it interesting that China had enough foresight to build their strategic petroleum reserve to 1500 mb (vs the US 410 mb) while oil prices were so low over the last few years. It’s like they always know where the puck is going and get there first.
They keep their idiots on the farm, not in the capitol.
State capitalism business model far superior to zionist-controlled western “democracies” pushing noahide laws on world population
They could say blocking chip exports was on humanitarian grounds.
Especially since the Pentagon is using AI for targeting.
Premiums will be paid, claims, not so much.
The big 3 European vassal STOOGES are dragged into
unfamous war by circus clown.
–
When will TrumpInsurance.com go up and I assume premiums will go directly to Trump? And of course, losses will be paid for by the taxpayer.
Dear MAGA – this is why you are ridiculed for being so dumb.
who in their right mind is going to crew these tankers?
Does this include life insurance for oil tanker crews? How about disability insurance and medical coverage? Free burials and cardboard coffins? As a bonus a purple heart (in a wide array of colors).
Maybe he can deport illegal immigrants to an oil tanker in the Middle East.
Bring on your next stupid idea Mr. Trump?
Each incinerated sailor will recieve a 14 karat gold plated urn, branded with the Trumpstien logo, for their eternal repose.
Bingo! I wouldn’t put it past Trump to order navy personnel to sail the vessels themselves and dare Iran to sink them (they will).
Trump lowered the flags half-staff for Charlie Kirk, but he didn’t do that for the 6 soldiers killed in Kuwait on Sunday.
Suckers and losers don’t get that.
Sailors are refusing to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, and this is now formally recognized by global maritime labour authorities. The refusal isn’t just informal pushback — it is an officially protected right triggered by the security situation.
🚨 What’s actually happening
Two authoritative bodies — the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) and the Joint Negotiating Group (JNG) — have designated the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters as a High Risk Area. This designation explicitly activates:
• The right of seafarers to refuse to sail into the area
• Enhanced insurance and war‑risk protections
• Mandatory risk assessments before any transit
• Crew consultation requirements
This is confirmed in the ITF–JNG joint statement, which notes that more than 200 vessels are currently anchored near the strait due to the danger
There a still fragments of law & order out there including protection of maritime staff from entering war zones. That’s why they are in the merchant navy.
Law & Order clearly a thing of the past in the current USIS “murder based order”.
“Murder-Based Order: A brief note to Scott RitterIgnasz Semmelweisz – Feb 20, 2026″
https://veryslowthinking.substack.com/p/murder-based-order-a-brief-note-to
I’ll believe it when I see it. Trump will TACO out because the issue is too complicated, too expensive and fraught with risk. Who would risk their assets based on a promise from that doddering dotard?
The Iranians, however, won’t stop. They have nothing to lose now.
Iran war cost ticker https://iran-cost-ticker.com/
USA debt
03-02-2026 – 38.8 trln
03-03-2025 – 36.2 trln
1 YEAR DEFICIT IS $2.6 TRLN AND RISING LAST FEW MONTHS
I do not believe a thing that comes out of Trump’s mouth.
I am sure Trump has a solution to a problem he created. LOL
Trump Is in Way Over His Head in Iran
Donald Trump’s war on Iran is barely half a week old, and with each day, it has become a bigger and bigger debacle.
This has to be the dumbest idea ever. How do they expect to escort ships when our carriers are parked more than 400 miles away for safety? Those ships will be blown up before they even reach the Straits.Trump is turning into the dumbest wartime political leader since Adolf Hitler.
We both know he always has been that guy, he just never had such a clear opportunity to showcase his ineptitude.
Tell me again about Maduro.
Oh you mean the guy who’s government was left entirely intact to abuse its people further? That guy? The guy we only managed to grab because his military basically didn’t show up? From the country not holding any elections right now?
I understood that the lady who has been appointed to replace Maduro has been starting to do the right thing and restore the economy. It will take time, and she may have to fight some of the street soldiers that Maduro was using to keep the population under control.
America made a mistake in Iraq by sacking the entire government apparatus, as I understand it. That left a lot of competent people with no choice but to become rebels and conspirators.
Government is always and everywhere a criminal activity. That doesn’t mean that some governments aren’t much worse than others. It doesn’t mean that an apparatus in place can’t be improved. You can thin it down, retire the older ones who can afford to retire, arrest the most blatant profiteers. What you shouldn’t do in that situation is just to turn out fighting men and techs to starve, because they won’t starve: they’ll do something about it, and they’ll do something about you.
current pricing of used tankers
https://www.nautisnp.com/tankers
a fully loaded container ship up to $500mil
I love the idea of someone relying on the idea of a Trump insurance promise
and how would you apply big economic pressure on the US
hit every US insured ship
in fact it’s an effn target–“ships moving, must be insured by the US”
bad idea
by the way, the son of Khamenei is now Supreme Leader