Let’s compare Trump’s claim to actual trade numbers.
Key Trade Deficit Points
- Last year, the goods trade deficit $1.205 trillion.
- Through November, the trade deficit is $1.134 trillion.
- There will be no significant change in the trade deficit in 2025 vs 2024. There may even be a small increase in the deficit.
The US runs a surplus in services so the overall net trade deficit is better.
US Balance of Trade – Goods Only 10 Select Countries Plus EU
Change November 2025 vs Full Year 2024
- China: +107 Billion
- EU: +31 Billion
- Mexico: -12 Billion
- Vietnam: -38 Billion
- Ireland: -25 Billion
- Taiwan: -53 billion
- South Korea: +16 Billion
- Canada: +15 Billion
The improvement in the deficit with China (+107 billion) is nearly wiped out by Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan (-103 billion).
Much of the tariff improvement with China is masked through imports from Mexico, Vietnam, and South Korea.
US Balance of Trade – Goods Only 10 Select Countries Plus EU Totals
Despite the above, Trump is pleased to report a 78 Percent Reduction in the Trade Deficit.
“Thank you for your attention to this matter — SAVE AMERICA!”
Noted.
Meanwhile, the Tariff TACOs continue.
Trump to Roll Back Some Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Due to Inflation
In the latest TACO Trump to Roll Back Some Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Due to Inflation
The Financial Times discusses tariff rollbacks.
In a smarter world, these tariffs would not have been initiated in the first place, or would be fully rolled back right now.
Related Posts
March 13, 2025: The Amazing “Success” of Trump’s 2018 Aluminum Tariffs in One Picture
I hope you can take a bit of headline sarcasm because the true story follows.
June 4, 2025: Irony of the Year: Automakers Consider Moving Some Parts Production to China
China has a magnet stranglehold that causing some seemingly strange discussions.
August 3, 2025: Trump Puts 93.5 Percent Tariff on Graphite Needed for EV Batteries
Here’s another shoot yourself in the foot tariff move by Trump.
September 18, 2025: Trump’s Aluminum Tariffs Kill Jobs and Put America Last
Tariffs are costly for companies that use the metal to make things, including recyclers.
December 1, 2025: Value City Furniture Goes Bankrupt, Cites Tariffs, 120 Stores Will Close
American Signature, Inc., parent of VCF, filed for Bankruptcy. Fallout in 17 states.
In early 2025 the monthly goods trade gap briefly ballooned to around $140–160 billion dollars as companies rushed to import goods before tariffs kicked in. By April, the monthly deficit had roughly halved to around $60–85 billion, which is where the “roughly three‑quarters” reduction claim comes from. For comparison, Mish’s article compares 2025 vs 2024 YOY. Bottom Line: Often, data can be “engineered” to support whatever narrative you desire!
America the Brain Dead led by a senile demented idiot who shits his pants daily. There are 43 million adults in this country with an IQ less than 85. Add in another 30 million who were completely deluded into voting for this monster and there you have it.
Trade deficit becomes really interesting if you consider how much gold and silver are leaving the LMBA and COMEX for China and India.
As of today there are only 92 million ounces of Registered Silver available for delivery at the COMEX. February saw a 98% “Stand for Delivery” rate in a month that rarely sees a 5% rate.
The March Silver contract has over 435,000,000 ounces outstanding. Unlike February, March is a moderate delivery month. Inventory will come in of course, but it will be interesting to see if more contracts are rolled backwards into March and a larger than normal % of contract owners standing for delivery.
The bleed down and export of gold and silver to China and India has influenced the trade deficit as hard assets are leaving the west and flowing east.
Got gold, silver or mining stocks?
thanks again frosty. i truly value this information. and analysis
No problem. Another thing to keep in mind is tat the Chinese Lunar New Year is being celebrated and their futures markets are closed for a week. This gives the market over to Western Banking powers to drive prices lower during the thinner market. Expect volatility!
I am looking to add if there is a nice running of the stops.
Beware the futures markets right now as margin requirements have risen six times in the last month. The COMEX can re-write the rules at its discretion and it is always in its (banking cartels) favor. Never for actual price discovery of the physical asset.
In other news, Bitcoin is up and gold silver down. Of course!
i knew about lunar new year closing………ha ha. i used to live in 2 chinatowns in usa. nyc and oakland. i miss the crazy fireworks this time of year………….good point on adding to silver if pushed down by manipulators…………..thanks again. i only buy physical, but understand your points. lots of my pals growing up worked at comex…….basically thieves with the spreads in the old days. glad that got tightened for the farmers and speculators. btw i know this is not news, but i knew they would let jon corzine get away with literally steal from the small speculators and small farmers…………i bet my friends at the time. FREE JON CORZINE is my refrain when it comes to WMD and epstein……. all you have to understand about amerika. grifter nation from top to bottom.
The trade deficit dropped from a monthly $136b in March, 2025 to $29b in October, 2025. A 78% drop. You just have to pick the proper starting and end points lol.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade
Hey look! A data cherry!
And I thought Trump was only interested in little girls…
Trump always win according to Trump.
“Thank you for your attention to this matter — SAVE AMERICA!”
well, at least he’s not claiming a 400 or 500 percent reduction in deficits, so progress?
When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn’t become a king. The palace turns into a circus. – Turkish Proverb
When Trump steps into the palace, he doesn’t rise to the institution — the institution sinks to match his chaos, and suddenly the whole place runs like a circus
The solution to the trade deficit isn’t tariffs. It is creating an economic environment in which US businesses are globally competitive. Tariffs do just the opposite. And that does require federal government involvement in directing investment to some extent. Trump’s a moron. But we all knew that.
US has been enjoying with exorbitant privilege brought by reserve currency status of USD for decades. So good for so long that deindustrialisation didn’t even matter. One day she woke up suddenly and realised she is living in unsustainable way but its very difficult to get rid of old habits.
Sadly there are enough idiots who will take what Trump says at face value. His cult doesn’t care about reality. Got kool-aid?
He’s being modest. It was really 1500%
Haha 2078 percent the lowest deficit in the history of mankind big beautiful deficits. What will the ministry of propaganda say next
“In a smarter world”. Please tell me where that is. I want to escape this one.
When I was a kid and saw ET at the theater, the ending made me really sad, because I knew there was nobody to come get me.
ET had to leave earth because Epstein’s men were after him.
He must have been under 16
US debt forecast to hit $64T.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/11/us-debt-forecast-to-hit-64t-in-a-decade-as-trump-policies-widen-deficit-00775726
Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper predicts that the U.S. will run a $1.9 trillion deficit during the current fiscal year as the national debt currently exceeds $38 trillion. The annual deficit is then forecast to grow to $3.1 trillion by 2036.
Growing interest costs and spending on safety-net programs drives the expanding gap between how much money flows into federal coffers each year and how much is doled out.
Debt compared to economic output is also on track to soar in the coming years. CBO predicts that federal debt held by the public will rise from 101 percent of gross domestic product this year to 120 percent in a decade, exceeding the previous high of 106 percent of GDP in 1946.
Either social security and medicare programs are cut or eliminated entirely or the Fed prints and your $2k or $3k SS check will buy a day’s worth of grocery due to inflation.
I’m sure the projections don’t include the loss of high paying jobs due to AI so the deficit may be $80T in 10 years for all we know.
This is the number that matters.
Got exit strategy?
With all of the layoffs at the IRS, tax code enforcement will be going down and budget deficits will be higher than projected.
Unlike when black people cheat on day care and hospice, it’s kind of cute when white people cheat on their taxes.
stay. it will be easy pickings as the empire crumbles. nah. best to leave and enjoy a stress free life in comparison. good luck. this empire is a bunch of assholes that keep voting for all this nonstop warfare since 1898
Without transfer payments, may as well proceed with secession. Smaller entities may be able/willing to look after their people.
there is absolutely no doubt a few states will effectively secede by end of 2029, for most it will be a yawn. conjuring up elctronic cursor currency as legal tender in TX or CA……….is so simple it’s not funny. the bootlickers with no concept of any history have no clue.
Texas is the first state to start their own gold repository and mint gold and silver coin although technically they are “commemorative coins” to avoid what happen to Liberty Silver.
https://www.texasbulliondepository.gov/
aye aye old sport. back to the future we go. not long ago states and banks issued their own USD currency. not a big fucking deal……
Blue states need to be freed of the burden of red states.
Guessing that the seceded states will be blue or colorless.
The red states will cling to what remains of the Fed. govt.
“$80T in 10 years for all we know.” ?????
Does anyone out there actualy think we can last ten more years.
Not with Trump and his henchmen at the helm! Trump has accelerated our downfall by decades. Who does he work for? Oh that’s right a windfall of $100 million for a Russian company.
With Trump back in the White House, the level of US public discourse tests new lows every week. Future historians will be challenged to explain how a whole country got dumbed down by a single person’s social account spewing demonstrably nonsensical posts around the clock.
The U.S. has a “win-at-all-costs” mentality where beating the other side is more important than actually governing. As an example – this is drummed into little Americans with all the flag adoration nonsense. Trump thrives on this, turning politics into a rivalry rather than a solution.
Add a rigid Constitution that’s practically begging to be abused, and you’ve got a system that lets manipulators like him thrive. Meanwhile, Europe’s flexible systems and focus on compromise keep the worst of populism in check. The downside for Europe is mediocre businesses that can’t compete globally.
The U.S. isn’t broken—it’s just built for chaos.
GOT dumbed down? about 50 years ago.
Deep down, most Usonians were a tramp inside. The going was good, so keeping a modicum of civility was overbearing. Now that the going hasn’t been good for a decade, politeness was thrown out the window and the tramp in chief validates the Usonian inner tramp. The Ugly Usonian exists and the rest of the world always recognized him for whom he was: trailer park material, no matter the education or income level. Culture cannot be acquired with either or both.
i agree. i also firmly believe 98percent of amerikans are nihilists. read ominous parallels and watch free on youtube, “centuryof self”
If Trump really tried, he could cut the trade deficit “by 1,200, 1,300, 1,400, 1,500 percent” like he did with drug prices.
Let’s say it did go down by 78%, ok, so what?
What matters is how a change in either direction affects your constituents. Manufacturing jobs are down; the job market in general is not good; young people can’t afford homes; and unless you’re already wealthy you’re struggling…..BIGLY.
Maybe if he gets it to a 78% surplus everyone will be in great shape.
Wake me up when that happens.
Not if the surplus comes from tariffs, but yes if from increased competitiveness.
But there is a problem for $ being the Reserve Currency. Refer Triffin’s Dilemma / Paradox .
It is not about US import tariffs as such. The game is about protection for payment (think of Japan, RoK, Europe, Middle East) or forced investments of allies/vassals into Washington run investment programs (AI and datacenters, chips, ships, reindustrialization, etc.). It is about neocon dream to go back to 1950s and 1960s when the US dominated industrial and financial businesses in its own sphere of influence. Nowadays D.C. sees its sphere of influence around most of the globe. Marco Rubio was quite clear about it in Munich. Tariffs are only needed to force allies/vassals to sign trade deals and then tariffs can be abolished. And of course any lie to achieve the end goal is justified in minds of WH occupants.
crumbling evil empire 101
– The improvement in the deficit with China (+107 billion) is nearly wiped out by Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan.
> Using that logic, you can wipe out EU as well, as the EU (+31 billion) is nearly gone with Ireland (-25 Billion) and we are nearly “Net Negative” so goodbye to that Data…
Do you enjoy being lied to every single time Trump opens his mouth or makes an inane post?
They love to be lied to. It’s part of the battered wife thing.
ed seykota, the greatest trader of our times, “losers win by losing. in life and in the markets”. my addendum, amerikans are losers so we keep voting for more and more losers. don’t blame me i vote libertarian and green.
I certainly don’t, which is why I always question and verify. Earlier I questioned the coal stupidity, after hours of research first, and no conclusion. I have yet to see one for that stupidity as well.
Look at it standing on two legs, it thinks it’s people!
Aww… give it a truffle!
The conclusions you reach tell me you aren’t very good at verifying.
It’s the data from this post! Read it from the very start…
I’m using the same #s as everyone else. They are the only set of numbers given. I am questioning them too, just like others.
MISH, for the history nerds who want to learn how finance was done in the old days of amerikan government.WATCH the cspan lecture on Lincoln’s counterfeiters I attached . A story untold. And also the question and answers. The history of Union Pacific. Lincoln was not only a tyrant, he was a really sleazy guy. Makes Donald Trump seem like Ron Paul https://www.c-span.org/program/american-history-tv/lincolns-counterfeiters/667492
https://www.c-span.org/program/american-history-tv/lincolns-counterfeiters/667492