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Two Reasons the PPI Report Will Give the Fed Severe Headaches

This morning, I listed two big headaches in the CPI report. Now, it’s the PPI’s turn.

PPI Final Demand Services Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year

January FOMC Minutes

January 27-28 Minutes: Participants observed that overall inflation had eased significantly from its highs in 2022 but remained somewhat elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal. Participants generally noted that these elevated readings largely reflected inflation in core goods, which appeared to have been boosted by the effects of tariff increases. In contrast to prices for core goods, some participants commented that disinflation appeared to be continuing for core services, particularly for housing services.

Regarding the outlook for inflation, participants anticipated that inflation would move down toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, though the pace and timing of this decline remained uncertain. Participants generally expected that the effects of tariffs on core goods prices would likely start to diminish this year. Several participants remarked that the ongoing moderation in inflation for housing services was likely to continue to exert downward pressure on overall inflation.

The Fed was wrong in January in more ways than one.

PPI Final Demand Month-Over-Month

Services Month-Over-Month

  • 2025-09: 0.6
  • 2025-10: 0.2
  • 2025-11: 0.3
  • 2025-12: 0.6
  • 2026-01: 0.8
  • 2026:02: 0.4
  • 2026-03: 0.2
  • 2026-04: 1.2

Services turned up before the war in Iran started. January through March of 2026 were all hot. April was a disaster.

As of December 2025, services were 68.3 percent of the PPI.

That’s Fed problem #1 for the PPI. Intermediate demand is problem number #2.

PPI Intermediate Demand by Stage of Production

PPI Percent Change Month-Over-Month by Stage of Production

  • Stage 1: 2.1 percent
  • Stage 2: 2.8 percent
  • Stage 3: 2.3 percent
  • Stage 4: 0.9 percent

Those numbers are stacked up waiting to hit final demand numbers.

Stage 1 (Earliest Stage)

  • Definition: Comprises intermediate goods and services that are in the earliest stages of processing. These are inputs used by industries to create goods for Stage 2 or 3.
  • Examples: Raw agricultural products, crude energy materials, and basic chemicals.

Stage 2 (Intermediate Stage)

  • Definition: Consists of intermediate goods and services that have undergone initial processing and are used to produce Stage 3 or 4 goods/services.
  • Examples: Intermediate energy products, chemical components, and industrial materials.

Stage 3 (Advanced Intermediate Stage)

  • Definition: Represents advanced intermediate goods and services, which are largely processed and are frequently used in the final production stages.
  • Examples: Components for manufacturing, processed materials, and advanced service inputs.

Stage 4 (Closest to Final Demand)

  • Definition: Composed of goods and services that are closest to final demand, meaning they are almost ready to be sold to the final user (consumers, government, or for capital investment).
  • Examples: Finished goods and services, such as final manufactured machinery or retail services.

PPI Intermediate Demand by Type

PPI Intermediate Demand by Type Percent Change

  • Processed Goods: 2.7 percent
  • Unprocessed Goods: 4.1 percent
  • Unprocessed Food and Feed: 2.7 percent
  • Services: 1.1 percent

PPI Problem Synopsis

  1. Price pressures are building in every stage of production.
  2. Price pressures are building in every key production type
  3. The year-over-year disinflation in services inflation ended in October of 2025.
  4. Services inflation month-over-month and year-over-year are both headed up.
  5. Disinflation in unprocessed food and feed is over.
  6. overall PPI acceleration started in December before the war in Iran. So, this is not all war related.

My two key Fed headaches are services which account for 68.3 percent of the PPI, and pent-up inflationary pressures at the intermediate level.

For more on PPI for final demand, please see Producer Price Index PPI Surges 1.4 Percent in April, Fed Behind the Curve?

The PPI numbers exceeded the highest estimate of every economist surveyed.

Worst of all, this is unrelated to shelter inflation in the CPI which accounts for over 35 percent of the CPI.

The CPI Report Will Give the Fed Severe Headaches

Earlier today, I noted Two Reasons the CPI Report Will Give the Fed Severe Headaches

There are two very troubling aspects of the latest BLS CPI report. Did you spot them?

Also see CPI Hotter than Expected, Highest in Three Years, a Genuine Disaster

Inflation in April was another scorcher. Here are some month-over-month and year-over-year charts.

Finally, please note Real Hourly Earnings Decline Again, No Growth Since Trump Took Office

If it feels like you are not getting ahead, it’s because you aren’t. Six charts.

If the strait stays closed much longer we are going to do serious damage to the entire global economy.

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74 Comments
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ksu82
ksu82
19 days ago

A friend who complains about Trump also loves the fact that his 401k went up 26% last year and is up over 15% this year and will probably finish with over 20% again.

I told him you cannot eat your cake and have it too.

Sure, Trump is a Taco man but everything he does just keeps juicing the stock market. Tariffs, ICE, Iran. The stock market was supposed to drop at least 20% because of Tariffs. I know, because I bought that too and have been betting against the market and getting killed.

So when people say Trump is destroying the economy, the people who bought into that have missed out big this past 1 1/2 years. I am just calling it as I see it as I missed out. Send out the down votes. LOL

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
19 days ago
Reply to  ksu82

Well if you believe the stock market = economy then Trump is a true hero. Just keep in mind that 80% of the wealth (and stock market) is owned by 20% of the population.

I’ve been making a killing myself but it won’t last and the cracks are getting bigger.

And I assume that if things are so awesome, the midterms will be a sweep for republicans.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w

ksu82
ksu82
19 days ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

That video has been proven true I think. What is also interesting is if you look at govt debt increase per president. It increases the the most during republican presidents.

So the theory is which could be wrong. Republicans they spend a lot on pro business. Then they Democrats take over and benefit from the republican policies put in place as there is a lag effect. Then the Democrats move to policies that are not so great for business and but great for people but. Eventually things are starting to turn economically and get they get voted out. Why else would they be voted out if the economy is always great during their term. The republicans take office and get hit with the non productive democratic economic policies and start spending money again. LOL

Anyway, typically the Dem’s give a bunch of free money away that is a boost short term but does not help the economy long term. example: Biden IRA. Obama’s 3 QE programs. Those are inflationary that hit down the road.

Then the republicans try to do QT, tariffs, DOGE. Those are short term programs that typically hurt the economy.

LOL: Trump used to be a Democrat and it looks like starting in 2026 he is going back to his democratic roots. Shut down DOGE. Giving up on tariffs. Starting a war. Big Beautiful Bill. Smells like democratic policies.

Plus starting TrumpIRA for all Americans who do not have an employee sponsored IRA. Trump IRA for kids. Those are all democratic type of programs to give out free money. I am not saying if they are good or bad. But that is very democratic like. AOC and Bernie stuff?

But, we are dealing with a uni-party now. They both like to spend. They just spend it a little differently. Both parties act like they hate each other….but do they?

FYI – I am an independent.

why
why
18 days ago
Reply to  ksu82

You forgot Bush jr’s cash for clunkers and giving money to home owners if they upgraded their homes to be energy efficient.

Both those goosed the economy as well.

And what about all the handouts Trump gave during the start of covid?

Your definition of what democratics do vs republican isn’t as black and white as you believe. And I’m goona say it again: it took both (dems, repubs) to get where we are with the national debt and the inflationary impact we feel today.

Not one is better than the other IMO and to believe so is to fall into the biggest kool-aid trap ever designed in American politics.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
19 days ago
Reply to  ksu82

I can take any wino off the street and make that wino look like a financial wizard, as long as that wino can borrow and refinance.

The US economy is that wino. To be fair, it’s not just Trump. Stock markets ballooned under Biden and Obama as well.

njbr
njbr
19 days ago
Reply to  ksu82

The highest paid 1% own 1/3 of all stocks
The highest paid 10% own 2/3 of all stocks
The highest paid 20% own 93% of all stock
The majority of stock holders are over 50 years old

See a split coming?

Why aren’t younger people grateful for the rise in stock values?

ksu82
ksu82
19 days ago
Reply to  njbr

Yep. That was the uni-party plan starting in 2011. That was the start of this crazy bull market. Housing unaffordability. Just look back at Yellen FED notes.

How does a FED chairman (Yellen) then go on to be the US Secretary of Treasury. I thought the FED was supposed to be independent.

Am I the only one seeing conflict of interest? A FED governor should never end up being a Treasurer or vice versa? Otherwise, there is no independence?

Last edited 19 days ago by ksu82
ksu82
ksu82
19 days ago

Interesting side note. Notice how companies are killing it with earnings yet announcing layoffs in the same call.

Usually, your hiring with stellar growth. LOL

Also, anyone see how the utility company providing Lake Tahoe’s 50k residents with electricity is going to cold turkey stop in May 2027. They said they are diverting the electricity to Data Center demand. 😂

The nice benefit is that the will not have to complain about their electricity rates will going up because of datacenter demand. Quite the opposite. They will go to zero.

Last edited 19 days ago by ksu82
ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
19 days ago

Age is catching up to Trump, and it is accelerating.

njbr
njbr
19 days ago

a blast from 1978-when Trump was prime diddling age of 30

(AP) – At the state banquet in Beijing, the Chinese military band broke into a tune that President Donald Trump has made his signature walk-off song: the disco hit, “Y.M.C.A.”

todde
todde
19 days ago

update on Iran. food, water and fuel still available in Tehran, or at least with the people im talking to.

conversation was mostly about will China help resolve this, you shouldn’t start shit in the Middle East, and WTF was the point in doing this.

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago

Today the BLS reported that import prices went up 1.9% in April and export prices were up 3.3%.

Annualized: that is 4.2% & 8.8% respectively.

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago
Reply to  Frosty

NDSU Trade Monitor’s report on fertilizer prices given various time lines for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.capts-ndsu.com/_files/ugd/3c6228_5cd4b04cd7d94d49bcb284c96c337ed8.pdf

njbr
njbr
19 days ago
Reply to  Frosty

Throw out the first two scenarios related to the quicker re-opening–those expired with the beginning of May

I am amused that the probabilities of events traces back to Kalshi and Polymarket

The “wisdom of the masses”…

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago

E-15 fuel legislation just passed the house with overwhelming support. That means year round sales of automotive fuels blended with 15% ethanol. For farmers and inflation it means that 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn will now have a market other than feed or highly processed food.

Corn prices should see a shift upward.

The bill faces stiff opposition in the senate, but money talks!

For consumers, it means fuel with lower mileage per gallon and higher auto repair bills. False economy at best!

HubrisEveryWhereOnline
HubrisEveryWhereOnline
19 days ago

Mish, how much of this PPI or CPI increase is due to health insurance premiums increasing? A few months ago, you wrote multiple posts about the upcoming HC costs exploding inflation. But I don’t remember reading anything since that prediction.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
19 days ago

Since beginning of Iran war, traders have ramped up bets on rising food prices 

https://archive.is/NWv8s

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
19 days ago

All you can do these days is position for profit. Seeing huge call volume for silver even at $200 strikes, yikes!

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Silver is sensitive to solar build outs. Which are going on everywhere but in primitive nations like the U.S under the haze of Agent Orange.

This too shall pass…

Last edited 19 days ago by Frosty
njbr
njbr
19 days ago

the cluelessness is extraordinary….

Bessent: “Given what’s going on in the Mideast, we think that not only China, but countries all around the world are gonna look to diversify away from the Middle East for a more stable source of energy, and what better place than the US?”

First, where is that magical Saudi-sized puddle of oil in the US?

Second, is the US demonstrating that it is a “stable source” of anything?

Third, the lesson really being learned is diversify from fossil fuels

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago

With the inflation imbedding itself into the four phases of product price pipeline, the Strait can open tomorrow and with the exception of fuel headline numbers, price increases will not slow for some time.

Trump has no interest in opening the Strait of Hormuz because starving Asia of Persian Gulf raw products will harm their society and economies directly.

The financial harm to Americans is not Trumps problem because he works for Israel.

America first my ass!

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago
Reply to  Frosty

The contractor building my new crop processing building gave his workers a raise because they were falling behind on their bills.

Not only has their gas, insurance and rent gone up, food inflation has started again.

My wife is now feeding them a healthy lunch so they stay on site and do not have to spend. Production is up as a result and hopefully labor costs are mitigated.

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago
Reply to  Frosty

Another shift in the economy is that employers are providing housing for their workers at an increasing pace. Restaurants, building contractors, country clubs, resorts are all banding together to create affordable housing and transportation so that workers can live on site or in the area.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
19 days ago
Reply to  Frosty

What’s next? Pay in tokens they can use at the Company Store?

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

Therein lies the potential for the ethics of employers to empower or enslave employees. As well as the potential for employees to enslave owners.

Rural employment in areas where goods and services are not readily available has always provided room for exploitation.

When was the last time you met a “Benevolent Dictator” ???

If they unionize, all the jobs and built in benefits will go away and I’ll return the land to nature. That’s the beauty of free enterprise. We have options as long as we are not in debt.

Flavia
Flavia
19 days ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

Back to feudalism.
No more upward mobility.

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago
Reply to  Flavia

You can be sure that illegal labor is trapped inside corporate farms because of the ICE presence outside the farm.

In other words: The corporate farm ambulance heads straight to the burial pit, not the distant hospital. Brutality is a way of life for the migrants and working poor as they have no way out when slavery is ring fenced with deportation.

We have trillions for fighting Israels wars and for all Israeli’s to have free healthcare plus free higher education.

No money for rural Americans access to healthcare.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
19 days ago
Reply to  Flavia

Upward mobility does have an inherent flaw: Upward is relative to others. We can’t all go up.

Flavia
Flavia
19 days ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

You can go a bit higher than where you were before…..that was always the reason people came to the States.

MelvinRich
MelvinRich
19 days ago
Reply to  Frosty

It’s “our democracy”. The chosen must rule.

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago

The stonk market seems to believe that Warsh will not raise interest rates even with huge inflation.

Let’s not forget that Western Asia will face intense food shortages without the fertilizers for the Indian rice crop that supports 3 billion people. But they are poor and brown, so I doubt Trump or Israel care if they starve.

And China can not make computer chips without the helium that Saudi Arabia used to sell to them.

So China has the rare earth magnets and we have the oil, refined products, natural gas & helium…

MelvinRich
MelvinRich
19 days ago
Reply to  Frosty

Sounds like war is on the way.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
19 days ago

Fox Business Host: ‘Bomb The You Know What’ Out Of Iran To Get Inflation Down
CHARLIE GASPARINO: You know, I think there’s a double whammy between tariffs and oil prices, and I think that’s what we’re seeing right now. The reason the White House knows that tariffs are inflationary is because they’re looking at cutting tariffs on beef — they’re actually throwing in the towel on one aspect of their tariff regime.
I would say of everything that Donald Trump has done, and he’s done so many good things, the one unforced error was going whole hog on tariffs. And when you throw a war in there with higher gas prices, you’re going to get this.
Now, here’s the good news: I think there’s a way to end this war soon — and I don’t mean running for cover. I mean, doing what has to be done. Either bomb the hell out of them, take them out — you don’t have to do a landing, but you have to reestablish order. If he does that, gas prices are going to come down, and the inflation picture improves.
I don’t think Kevin Warsh is going to raise interest rates — I think that would be crazy at this point, because this could just be a temporary blip driven by oil prices and a bit of price shock from tariffs.
The economy generally is doing really well. We’ve got a pretty hot economy; we had a good employment report — there are a lot of positive things with this presidency and this economy.
But right now, the overhang really is the war. You’ve got to either get out of it or just finish it. We’re in this way too long. Bomb the hell out of them, take out all their bridges — do whatever it takes. 

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago

Israel is writing Fox’s script again while ignoring genocide in Gaza, Lebanon and now ~ Iran.

Israel is the renegade nation with nuclear weapons and no signature on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Suzie Alcatrez
Suzie Alcatrez
19 days ago
Reply to  Frosty

and he’s done so many good things

LOL! Do even the Fox viewers believe this anymore?

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
19 days ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

Do even the Fox viewers believe this anymore?

As a reformed MAGAtard I visit MAGAland online from time to time (i.e., various podcasts, etc)….you would be amazed…well, probably more like horrified. But, such is the life for the AmeriFat.

Jon
Jon
19 days ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

Fox viewers get their views from Fox. They are people of faith. And their faith is in Fox News always telling the truth.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
19 days ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

Believing otherwise would involve them admitting how stupid they’ve been this last 10 years. Will never happen.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
19 days ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

For most humans most of the time, the fastest and surest way to wind up dead or seriously disadvantaged has been at the hands of fellow humans. At the same time, “our group”, whether by faith, family, tribe, regiment, whatever, are the people they can trust to have their backs.

Therefore, whatever else happens, whatever they have to do, believe absurdities, blindly follow barking insane leaders, parrot obvious lies to our detriment, do or suffer terrible things, but please whatever you do, please don’t kick us out of the group!

What this also means is that when humans are presented with incontrovertible proof that the group narrative is wrong or that the group leaders are mad or charlatans or worse, rather than change leaders or change beliefs or change groups, most people, most of the time will instead double down. Witness the behavior of cultists.

The process is called “cognitive dissonance” and it is abundantly documented. As alluded to earlier, there are entire religions organized around the principle.

Cognitive dissonance is not limited to stupid people. In fact, the intelligent are at least as prone, perhaps because they are better at rationalizing. In fact, much so-called “knowledge work” is basically learning symbol manipulation in order to rationalize something.

Jon
Jon
19 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

One of core things evolution implanted in almost all life forms is “followership”. When one being suddenly begins sprinting away, everyone else initially does also because there is likely a predator getting ready to jump on you. When another being goes into a predatory crouch sensing food, so do all other predators around it, to hopefully be first to the food. It is why as diverse species as fish and birds all follow each other and once one ant or mosquito finds you they all suddenly find you. It is core to how children learn from their parents. Humans are no different, until you learn this lesson and discover it in your thoughts and actions.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
19 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

Of all the creatures on the earth, humans are by far the biggest threat to your well being.

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago
Reply to  Feral Finster

+100. Excellent!

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
19 days ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

You’d be amazed. Full on Kool Aid chugging cultists.

If Trump were to start and end every speech with “All Praise to Lord Satan!“, those pinheads would burn their Bibles they had been thumping and start wearing Dracula capes.

Blurtman
Blurtman
19 days ago
Reply to  Frosty

But the Dow is over 50,000.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
19 days ago
Reply to  Blurtman

I will always hear that in Pam Bondi’s vocoder voice

why
why
19 days ago

I assume by what Charlie said he’d would support nuking Iran. “Do whatever it takes.”

Therefore Charlie is insane IMO.

Last edited 19 days ago by why
Feral Finster
Feral Finster
19 days ago
Reply to  why

I would say that he reflects the sociopathy of Washington and Wall Street.

Avery2
Avery2
19 days ago

I thought Charlie Gasbag disappeared after 2008-2009. A real jack@ss.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
19 days ago

No reason to read beyond “the one unforced error” line. Garbage

Pedro
Pedro
19 days ago

The stock market acceleration in the face of the inflation reports is interesting for sure. And it all skyrocketed when trump surrendered (ceasefire) and it was clear inflation was coming.

Not the usual discounting behavior when higher rates are expected, but investors running scared of inflation. But then the market has been broken for a while now so who knows…

Could it be that we are entering the last burst before a mess. I keep reading that the big boys are loading up on bonds, convinced this ends in recession.

Interesting times

why
why
19 days ago
Reply to  Pedro

“The stock market acceleration in the face of the inflation reports is interesting…”

Stock prices are a direct reflection of that inflation especially if we are talking dollar devaluation. As the dollar in value drops all assets including stocks go up.

One thing people don’t consider is the factor of rates. Lower rates makes debt cheap, which pushes asset prices up because debt (cheap or not) has to pay for itself somehow (thus creating more demand for assets and pushing the price of said asset higher as this easy money floods markets).

And we can add a third factor, which very rarely anyone thinks about: international investors seeking a return on their investments.

We are in an interesting situation as govts, especially Western govts, around the world are passing anticapitalist policies coupled with their rising debt, extreme taxation, low bond rates, and ballooning social programs (and now add to the fact their increaed military spending, which was basically zero – example Germany today). This is pushing international investors into US (private) markets seeking to preserve and increase their wealth in these troubled times.

These three factors is why markets are going up when they should be going down, and the very fact international investors are fleeing their own markets and seek US markets as a safe haven suggests just how close we are from it all blowing up.

Last edited 19 days ago by why
Suzie Alcatrez
Suzie Alcatrez
19 days ago
Reply to  why

Stock market in Zimbabwe did well during their hyper imflation. There was no where else to keep your money.

Dave Smith
Dave Smith
19 days ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

Stock market does not go up over short periods of time in an inflationary period, especially during excessive inflation, it is being measured with a tool that is divided into many more units. Investors did not generate wealth in the German market after WW1 or in USSR during the inflationary period prior to its demise.
The market in Zimbabwe did well with respect to its dollar, but not anything else. The country changed its money to the ZIG, a currency backed by gold and some other nations money.
Same is happening here, the market is going up in dollar terms but measured in gold over a long enough time period, not so much. Things of perceived real current or future value are outperforming the market. Have a squint at precious metals, tech or agricultural land as examples

ksu82
ksu82
19 days ago
Reply to  why

Bingo. Global debt it increasing. Currency devaluation is a lot of this inflation and causing rising stock prices.

This is not demand push inflation. I am pretty sure there is not to much demand vs supply that is driving this inflation in things like services. Is anyone having a problem hiring someone to mow their lawn or make them a coffee, fix their car, or have their teeth cleaned?

This is just not just a USA inflation problem. It is global. USA debt will be over 70 trillion in 10 years and over 160 trillion in 25.

People worried about being priced out of a home now. It will be worse in a 5 years. I suggest buy now.

What is interesting is inflation is not that high yet. People who never lived in the 1970s don’t know high inflation. This is still low.

I guess a lot of economist are expecting AI to reduce inflation soon. Now maybe that could cause deflation via economic slowdown or unemployment? But would that stop the Government from printing debt?

Global Govt debt
2000: 19 Trillion (USA 5 Trillion)
2010: 51 Trillion (USA 11 Trillion)
2020: 84 Trillion (US 28 Trillion)
2025: 111 Trillion. (USA 38 trillion)

Global debt has been increasing about 30 trillion every 10 years but it has increase 30 trillion in just 5 years since 2020.

Of the total increase of 90 trillion from 2000 to 2025, 33 trillion or 1/3 is USA Govt Debt. I bet we are at $50 trillion in 5 years?

Got Gold, Silver, Land, Housing, SP500? Those will all go up. Got cash. That will go down.

Last edited 19 days ago by ksu82
Jon
Jon
19 days ago
Reply to  Pedro
  1. When you are paying more for a product you are paying a corporation. Some percentage of that payment is profit. That percentage at higher prices means higher profits.
  2. When the general population expects inflation, responsible corporate leadership increases prices regardless of whether their costs are increasing. That maximizes profits with no downsides as the price increases can be blamed on “inflation” itself or “government regulation/policies”.

The point is that stock investors love inflation. The inflated dollars end up as income and profits to corporations. Look especially at vertically integrated corporations where inflation will have a minimal effect on costs but have strong pricing ability: oil companies, telecom, railroads, etc…

Dave Smith
Dave Smith
19 days ago

Almost all the hand wringing adjustments over our economic mess has its roots in inflation. The feds congressionally mandated function is stable prices which they self-interpret as 2% inflation target which they have not met in who knows how long. Congress has spent beyond its revenues since the commencement of the Viet Nam War and President Johnson’s Great Society Programs in the late 1960’s. If a dollar continued to be held to constant value there would be no need for inflation protection in any government program or wages public and private, etc. cost savings would be huge. It is a problem of our own making and will likely be root cause of our downfall, initiated from within, not from outside.

shelly
shelly
19 days ago

Why would Iran open the strait? They’ll keep it closed until we have a bond market event. They have to, to establish deterrence. There’s no scenario where they let us off the hook without an economic crisis. The war isn’t over. The ceasefire was essentially our surrender. It’s been great for Iran because they can keep the strait closed without having to put up with our bombs. The war is the strait being closed. If Iran can establish precedent that attacking Iran = market collapse, then no US President will ever attack Iran again. That is priceless. They will endure whatever it takes to achieve that. That’s why every dumbass analyst who thinks it’s over or thinks there’s any way out of this without a market crash is a pumpkin. The market either doesn’t understand, or it’s government intervention as the government thinks it can foil Iran’s plans by pumping up markets. Can’t have a bond market crisis if markets don’t go down now can you? and the Fed and treasury certainly have the power to do it. They made the market go up during a worldwide plague. They can do it again. Only everyone will probably wish we had a market crash instead of what we’re gonna get. Because the sooner we get a bond market crisis that makes wallstreet turn on Trump, the sooner Iran actually does open the strait. If Trump tries to prop markets up long enough to make it to the midterms, that means the strait will be closed that entire time and the shortage will be enormous. We’re cooked ladies and gentlemen.

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
19 days ago
Reply to  shelly

Wouldn’t the Americans just beat JDAMs into plowshares?

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
19 days ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker

Plowshares? you mean stockshares.

Have you seen the Dow lately?Orange Shit Stain

why
why
19 days ago
Reply to  shelly

I hate to say this but we were cooked long before this point.

It took both republicans and democrats to get us to where we are today: no room for the unexpected. They ran deficits higher than taxes coming in for 80 years or more. This this isn’t something that’s suddenly happening.

What is suddenly happening though is the world calling America on its debt, its hypocrisy, and its loyalty. It’s why confidence in America foreign or domestic is dropping like a rock, and Trump isn’t helping the situation.

As the old saying goes, “it works till it doesn’t.” There’s no way out but to survive the pain now, that is if one can survive.

Shelmas
Shelmas
19 days ago
Reply to  why

It’s funny, I can remember the second Clinton term when the federal government actually ran surpluses for 4 straight years. Who would of thought that those would be the good old days? I remember serious business press articles that were worried about how asset pricing models would work when all US treasuries were retired and there was no “risk-free” asset to use. Then came the Bush tax cuts, 9/11 with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the dot.com implosion, etc, etc. and it has been all down hill since then.

Frosty
Frosty
19 days ago
Reply to  Shelmas

And Fox News was all over Clinton for a consensual blowjob.

Now Fox protects serial pedophiles…

Follow the money!

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
19 days ago
Reply to  Frosty

You misspelled “Follow what Israel does”

why
why
19 days ago
Reply to  Shelmas

Four years of a surpluse doesn’t mean jack when most the presidents before and everyone after ran huge deficits. Proof is where the American debt sits today and the interest Americans pay on that debt (over a trillion a year now).

And let’s not forget Obama was the first president to run a budget exceeding a trillion a year.

I only say this because you bring up Bush jr only suggesting he was to blame. Again it took both republicans and democrats to create a ~40 trillion national debt problem.

Last edited 19 days ago by why
Suzie Alcatrez
Suzie Alcatrez
19 days ago
Reply to  why

Yep, that’s exact;y what Bush said “deficits don’t matter” and preceded to go back to deficit spending.

But Clinton got a BJ, that’s the important thing to remember.

JCH1952
JCH1952
19 days ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

Actually, it was Dick Cheney who said that, but yes, what Clinton did wrong was Monica was above the age of consent. Practically a Grandmother. Ewwww.

Casual Observer
Casual Observer
19 days ago
Reply to  why

A deflationary collapse will occur but the current currency will get no one out of this.

Everything that is happening is by design.

I still predict no elections in November and a state of emergency declared by Trump. Stuff is gonna get bad.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
19 days ago

The second civil war is coming.

Flavia
Flavia
19 days ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

It’ll be local vs. Federal.

The Dude Abides
The Dude Abides
19 days ago

Casual – this has been in the back of my mind as well (happening by design). If this turns out to be accurate, what do you think is the end goal? CBDCs? Move toward global governance?

Last edited 19 days ago by The Dude Abides
Joe Penny
Joe Penny
19 days ago
Reply to  shelly

worldwide plague

You mean the sniffles with a 99.8% survival rate?

Other than that, good post

JCH1952
JCH1952
19 days ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Yes, the worst example of Chinese engineering in the entire history of Chinese engineering.

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
19 days ago
Reply to  shelly

“If Iran can establish precedent that attacking Iran = market collapse, then…”
1.) …many countries would find a way to hold the world hostage to prevent an attack by another country, and then hold the world hostage as an offensive weapon to establish a global dictatorship.
2.) …nations would become self sufficient to reduce the risk of being held hostage.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
19 days ago
Reply to  shelly

It was already well known that Iran had this capability before our demented pedo president decided to attack them. We’ve shown we’ll elect such dipshits, twice.

It isn’t about deterrance. It’s about crashing our economy har enough that it will be a decade or so before the next dipshit we elect tries again. By then they’ll have nukes, if they don’t already.

Stupid should, and does hurt.

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