I watched the debate after it was over.
You can watch the debate by delay on ITV.
Halfway Notes I Sent to a Friend
- I am watching the debate on a delay. I am about halfway through. There is hardly anything to crow about.
- Both side will likely claim victory but I see little reason for any minds to change here.
- The key thing for me is Johnson looks happy and smiling. Corbyn looks miserable, if that matters.
Finished watching the entire debate.
Accurate Summation
Also to the Point
Cheerleading
There was a ton of partisan clapping after every answer. They should disallow this.
Popularity
People are going to believe their guy won nearly all of the time.
But Corbyn is in a huge hole. Who did he sway?
Referendum on Corbyn
As noted yesterday, Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit
Take a look at the snap survey following the debate.
Who looks more like a Prime Minister?
Who is more likeable?
Give a small win to Corbyn on trust.
Corbyn won on “being in touch with ordinary people” but will that translate into votes?
For the entire debate, Corbyn looked like a big sourpuss. I do not know if that matters, but perhaps it filtered through in the “likeable” question.
Pick the Winner
Pick your own winner but make sure it does not reflect your bias. I will call this a tie.
But Corbyn needed far better than that.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
There is only 15% of the Lib Dems left for Labour to target. Corbyn has already picked off all but the hard core. They can’t stand him and thus no more gains coming
Brexit With Bunnies https://nagonthelake.blogspot.com/2019/11/brexit-with-bunnies.html
You are forgetting the Moslems and the students who all vote twice
The last time a Labour Government was in power with similar policies to those driven by Momentum was the 1970s.
These were the income tax rates in 1977/78
up to £6000 34%
6000- 7000 40%
7000 – 8000 45%
8000 – 9000 50%
9000 – 10000 55%
10000 – 12000 60%
12000- 14000 65%
16000- 21000 75%
over £21000 83%
“Once people get the idea that Corbyn is everybody’s uncle then the election changes”.
They already know he’s an uncle – the creepy sort who smells a bit funny and makes unsettling suggestions in exchange for promises of sweeties. The more 1970s red Jezza stuff he trots out, the further the balance will swing away. 2017 was his high water mark.
Forget the manifestos, only sad acts like me and politicos read them. Repealing union laws will be hidden in the middle again, as was fox hunting in the Tory rag last time.
Look, I have no time for Corbyn, but I try to be evenhanded. Your characterisation of him as Tommy’s wicked uncle Ernie is absurd. People don’t see that. What they see is not a wicked being with horns from the underworld, they ask themselves what is the Daily Mail on about? This man wouldn’t hurt a fly.
Not in my region. He wants to portray this friendly uncle image but there is real fear of his policies. Momentum are much more extreme than New Labour. There really won’t be any point trying to be successful in life. Aspiration will be dead.
Of course Corbyn seems to be in touch with the common man. He’s promising free stuff with money taken a gunpoint from those OTHER people.
“Whose opinion is it going to change? The ordinary people who were going to vote for Corbyn anyway?”
The target group of Corbyn is LibDem supporters. The most important fact about the debate in this sense is that Jo Swinson did not participate. If she comes over as a vote waster, that plays largely in the favour of Labour.
As for “ordinary people”, it is Johnson who wants to do the trick in poor Labour heartlands with his Brexit. He is the one who needs a structural change in British politics. If he is out of touch with ordinary people, that does not help.
Just finished watching on delay. It was so poorly structured and hosted that I don’t think either side benefited – just an unpleasant waste of everyone’s time. Any time one of them did start to warm to a topic or an argument, he was cut off by a busybody, know-it-all press persona that has infected all of UK political coverage of late. This mainly happened to Boris because he found it impossible to stay within the much too tight soundbite-only time constraints. I probably won’t bother watching any more of them!
For myself, I found Corbyn far more convincing in that he seemed relaxed and on top of things with a calm overview of complex topics, whilst Boris seemed way too pushy and salesman-y and without depth or gravitas.
The YouGov poll was meant to be scientific. It likely was. Call it a tossup, which by the way was my verdict before I saw the poll.
If it does not sway opinion, and I doubt it does, Corbyn lost time. Neither debated well IMO but that does not help Corbyn.
Mish
“According to ITV, the hosts for tonight’s debate, it was 78%-22% in Corbyn’s favour on their poll, 29,665 polled. I don’t believe this, see how outrageous UK polls are?”
Lovely
And I believe it. Everyone should.
It is social media crapola at which Liberals excel.
It was not meant to be a valid poll and it wasn’t. But yes, it’s entirely believable.
Having thought about this I believe it points to one thing. You are quite right about it being garbage but it shows that the Labour party marshalled their forces far more effectively than the Tories.
The news outlets are focussing on the Tories rebranding their twitter feed into a spurious fact checking organisation. If you are confident in your case you do not cheat. If you are a competent political party you do not get found out so easily. You are right about it being a toss up. I have a different take, the great political campaigner needs to crush Corbyn, if not it is shades of May.
According to ITV, the hosts for tonight’s debate, it was 78%-22% in Corbyn’s favour on their poll, 29,665 polled. I don’t believe this, see how outrageous UK polls are?
“The worst may now be over for global trade as tensions over Brexit and the U.S.-China relationship show signs of easing, according to a key freight industry executive. ‘Brexit naturally slows everyone down in making decisions, but it will get resolved in the space of three to four months,’ John Pearson, who runs the worldwide DHL Express operations of Deutsche Post AG, said in an interview. ‘There is a positive mood within the China-U.S. trade relationship, that’s a fact. I’m not anticipating it to get any worse.’” • We’ll see!
Once people get the idea that Corbyn is everybody’s uncle then the election changes. To lose by by 2 % to the great crusading liar given that he is the most unpopular politician around is no mean feat and shows the liar is not up to much. The Libdems have been very disappointing so far and unless Swinson pulls her finger out we will be also rans. Thursday Labour publish their manifesto, if it goes down a storm hang on for a wild ride. Word is that they are coming out with a policy to deal with the problem that kippered May- care for the aged.
He is everybody’s crazy uncle stuck in the 70’s
Let’s face it people on this site are politics geeks. In a recent poll 42% were unable to name policies put forward by any party. On other matters, I was talking to a friend who is a Labour Party member with whom I’ve enjoyed many an argument. He told me that he had already been asked three times, by e-mail to register for a postal vote. Party organisation counts for a lot in marginal seats.
You gov poll just issued, Don’t knows break 59-41 for Corbyn, see what Imean?
Corbyn did a better job, though overall it was a lousy meal to chew through because of terrible procedural decisions.
Corbyn is an issues man, fueled by ideas, by abstract concept. It is all packaged as concern for real, ordinary people, but even if entirely sincere and intelligently thought through (which I doubt!), it’s still Idea-Driven so actually it comes from the Head.
Boris has to win on the Heart and Spirit level whilst showing he can master detail, the management stuff. He already brought back a deal and managed London so there aren’t huge doubts on that front except from people who can only think of him as a ‘liar’ and nothing else. Maybe he lied a lot as a husband and journalist, and maybe not everything they said in the Brexit campaign turned out to be totally correct, but bigger lies were (and still are) being told by Remainers on that front, including the entire (false) notion of a ‘no-deal Brexit,’ something which does not and cannot exist since any form of exit will comprise some sort of deal, WTO or whatever.
The media tilts left making it hard for conservatives in both US and UK to actually inspire people. The better they do, the nastier the press becomes and the more unfair their coverage. It makes for a hostile, unpleasant environment which encourages politicians on both sides to favor impact over substance.
And so it goes. But this Brexit business is a big deal which has damaged the country because of corrupt indecision. Boris has a clear path through it. He’s not proposing anything extreme and on most of the progressive issues (healthcare, climate change) he’s on board with the core politically correct thrusts, and so not all that vulnerable on those fronts.
This is his to lose. If he CAN inspire the country somehow despite the press doing all it can to prevent it, he’ll win with a considerable. and possibly historic, landslide.
Jeremy has intellect, energy, determination and savvy. But he lacks heart or nationalist spirit/pride. Always complaining. (Classic Lefty problem and not always wrong or ineffective depending on the times).
But if Boris can define and capture the ‘we’ (which is where every election is won or lost), he’s going to do well. Ideas, ultimately, are dry and only inspire fanatics. Labour has nothing interesting to offer in the British Bulldog Department.