I am off chasing a solar eclipse today. Here are some interesting Tweets to consider in a scheduled post. 
This is what happens in secular bear markets. S&P 500 will trade in a trading range for years. May even hit new highs again, but won’t hold it. Average bear is 11 years. Stockpickers can win. Always a bull somewhere. But winners will be new. Won’t be Magnificent 7. https://t.co/t3HF5slpLx
— Tracey Ryniec (@TraceyRyniec) October 14, 2023
The Deficit
Fed and Treasury are hoping:
— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) October 13, 2023
INFLATION WILL FIX IT#Deficit https://t.co/1gqy7xIez5
Disinformation Industry
The fraudulent “disinformation industry” was invented after Brexit and Trump’s 2016 win because Western elites concluded online free speech is too dangerous.
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 10, 2023
This EU study — designed to legally force X to censor more — is supremely fraudulent:https://t.co/dK2JG7VU8X pic.twitter.com/6jOu5PrOQi
Fed’s Balance Sheet
In case you missed it: #Fed Balance sheet has dropped <$8tn for 1st time since Summer 2021 on QT. Fed’s total assets are now equal to 29.4% of US’s GDP vs ECB’s 50.9%, SNB’s 111.5%, or BoJ’s 125.7%. pic.twitter.com/kI6MxrpqSt
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 8, 2023
Interest Will Eat 20 Percent of Tax Revenue
Deficits might matter again (they always have, frankly) … @USCBO estimates interest costs of deficit could eat up >20% of tax revenue by 2032@biancoresearch @USTreasury pic.twitter.com/9bWb5E0exD
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 5, 2023
Immediate Need to Address the Border
BREAKING: The Biden administration says there is an “immediate need” to wave regulations and build a border wall as the migrant crisis spirals out of control.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 5, 2023
Remarkable. 4 years ago this was “racist.” Now they’re advocating for it.
“There is presently an acute and immediate… https://t.co/OREJNUkWcl
“The S&P 500 is exactly where it was 2 years and 3 months ago on Friday, July 16, 2021.”
The corporate insiders know when to sell and when to buy.
3) The Dow 1W : X is July 2023 high minus march low 2023 = 4,250.
Oct 2023 low + X = 32,847 + 4,250 = 37K min.
A zigzag up from Oct 2023 low.
It must be incomprehensibly galling for Biden and the Democrats to need to admit that Trump was right about the wall. It’s too bad that Trump has lost his mind.
The wall didn’t help much in Gaza/Israel. What is needed to fix the issue is eVerify everywhere, heavy fines for employers, and overall immigration reform. The wall is a gimmick to placate the masses from both repubs and dems.
If any wall is built, we’ll still be talking about this issue 10 years from now.
Here’s an example why – 20 years and nothing has improved.
https://www.annistonstar.com/free/in-labor-shortage-more-alabama-farms-turn-to-guest-worker-visas/article_3109ff6c-6932-11ee-ac79-e76a878cc1a6.html
I agree with everything you say except the border wall “claim”. Feel free to read the following article that you’d never find on google unless you add breitbart to your search.
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2013/06/04/israel-builds-new-border-fence-illegal-crossings-drop-99-9/
The real point is that a border wall must come before any sort of comprehensive immigration reform is signed, because you’re a clearly wrong about a wall. In fact, you couldn’t be more wrong if you tried.
eVerify is a must though. We agree on that for sure.
The cartels have endless tunnels underneath the earth. Every now and then a few are found and destroyed. How do you think 200 tons of coke get into the country every year? These tunnels are used to bring people in.
There are endless YouTube videos about the wall being breached in any number of ways: Saws, ladders, tunnels, etc. I suggest you watch them so you can ponder if wasting money is worth the effort on it.
The reason the Israel wall seemed to work was because Hamas wasn’t determine to breach it and when they were it took minutes to do so. Besides, Hamas didn’t have endless employers waiting on the other side ready to offer them employment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSbsgA615lo
So they will go on welfare and work for each other, or do crime, while paying no taxes and out-birthing those too busy working to pay for it all?
Achtung!
Minen!
¡Peligro!
¡Minas!
A 5th grader could have “reminded” us that a border wall would be effective at stopping illegal border crossings.
The problem is that liberals cheated in many ways (most of which weren’t illegal) and elected the absolutely worst president ever. Joe Biden will go down as the guy who brought about the rise of the Anti-Christ, Alejandro Mayorkas.
By the time FJB leaves office, there will be 10M new illegals in the US. The number of ways this can go sideways over the next 3-10 years are mindboggling, starting the level how much the cartels have dug themselves into the US. It’s utterly scary that people still defend FJB. Stunning. And they’re the same people who called Trump a monster and are now trying to rig the ’24 election by prosecuting their political rival.
And the scary part is that Trump might be the sanest guy in the room by the time it’s all said and done. It’s going to be fantastic to see him still standing 12 months from now. And when he’s dominating the poles and then “somehow” loses again, I’m hopeful America will finally wake up. And, remember, I’m not a Trump fan, but I hate liberals who cheat and elect such an awful president as FJB.
“JUST IN – EU commissioner warns Elon Musk in a letter that his platform X is spreading “illegal content and disinformation” — AFP”
“Safe and effective” was disinformation. Governments promoted it, constantly, in order to use Goebbels Big Lie, to fool the public.
Governments create false narratives and don’t want people to know the truth, so they call the truth mis/dis/mal information in an attempt to suppress the truth.
From Bloomberg:
“The head of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund told a Toronto economics conference that he thinks the next 10 years will be a “wasted decade” for financial markets, without any real returns in the coming years.
Nicolai Tangen, the chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, said during a Wednesday talk at the Toronto Global Forum that he is basing that dismal prediction on factors such as inflationary pressures, climate change, deflation in China and more. “
Although this is one man’s opinion, I tend to agree with him. Good returns on investments are going to be harder to achieve over the next decade.
To overcome this likelihood my own strategy is focused on companies with fortress balance sheets (with low or no debt, who won’t need to borrow at high rates), in sectors that provide basic necessities (where demand rarely declines), with low EV and PE ratios, strong cash flows, and a dedication to shareholder returns via good dividends and share buybacks.
In addition, I want to buy the dips and sell the rips on up to 25% of this portfolio in order to enhance returns.
A good chunk of this portfolio is currently in oil and gas stocks. Though I have been picking up a few utilities and banks recently as their prices have dropped and yields have risen.
You gotta go where the money will be….71 million people on social security in the US and that number will only grow. Health care, medical devices, pharmaceuticals will be money makers to some extent.
On the younger side, the focus will mostly be on consumer staples as a miserable decade keeps people from thriving. Of course the wealthy will do well so high end consumer discretionary. My three sector picks are energy, healthcare and high end consumer discretionary. I recently added select insurance industries to the mix for diversity.
Agree in general.
Though there is already a discussion on the impact of weight loss meds on health care companies. Less heart disease, diabetes, knee replacement, etc etc. Also a discussion on the impact of snack foods. Hard to predict the future, as always.
Weight loss won’t fix cardiovascular disease that already exists in 70+ million people. it will help the young not the old. I doubt it will fix cancer either. Lots of diseases out there and bad habits (smoking, drugs, many sex partners, etc).
Money will continue to be spent in the healthcare industries. There are A LOT of people that have vaccine injuries. Also, the immigrants/illegals are using a lot of our resources in the health care industry. New York City public hospitals overwhelmed by increase of migrants. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kd3PDZMz0_w
Thanks again for continued excellent posts PapaDave.
Rice and Beans may indeed equal Exxon, McDonalds, and Pepsi and their excellent balance sheet for the next decade.
This is a TEST. Is Mish now moderating my comments?
Yes, but only on Saturdays.
“Deficits might matter again @USCBO estimates interest costs of deficit could eat up >20% of tax revenue by 2032.”
ROTFLMAO! 2032 MY ASS. Though Q2 of this year the annualized interest expense is $910B. Source:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA
In Q3 (Sept), we borrowed $1.3T, and the Q3 annualized interest expense will hit in less than 2 weeks. You’d have to be crazy to think it’s not going to jump past $1T.
FY ’22 revenue was $4.9T and most likely will fall slightly this year. Source:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58592/html
So in about 2 weeks, we’ll confirm that the CBO is about 8 years too late. We’re already there. Everyone has their head stuck in the sand.
1) The Dow 1W with the cloud : T&K flipped. 52 bars to the left is Oct 10 2022. Next
week Senko B will resume its rise. The front end of the cloud will flip. The Dow might
close Oct 10/17 2022 gap, before rising, in a sling shot, to 40K/45K.
2) SPX 1W Renko 30pts close : Five waves down. Oct 2022 low was wave #1 down.
July 2023 high was Wave #2, an a-b-c up, to a lower high. Wave #3 is on. Wave #3, a rd trip to Feb 2022 high, min target : 3,600 – 180 = 3,420. This option will be cancelled if July 2023 high will be breached.
I have a slightly different E-way counts, but lead to the same conclusion of a brutal 2024 year for the Dow Industrials. Since the 2022 sell-off was so choppy, I view that as corrective Wave A (bear) or Wave 4 (bull). The rally out of the 2022 low has been overlapping, and maybe even a Wave B triangle (bear) or Wave 5 ending diagonal (bull). The selloff from the August 2023 highs looks like a zigzag. The key to both possible wave counts remaining depends on reaching 34750. If the market falls below the October lows, then the count becomes very favorable to your thesis.
According to Harry Dent, people spend the most money they will ever spend in their lives when they turn 46-50. And guess what we will have in abundance for the next 20 years? People turning 50 (born 1973 @ 3.1 million births — a big low — and it just kept going up after 1973). For the next 20 years, more and more people turn 50. And they spend. And spend (while fewer and fewer turn 16 and 65). Put your money into equities/S&P 500 as I cant see where else all that money is gonna land.
Student debt?
Big car payments?
Gigantic rents or mortgage payments?
…
“Put your money into equities/S&P 500 as I cant see where else all that money is gonna land.”
Maybe people already have, which is why the “live PE ratio, capitilization weighted, is around 38.2.
Brother, can you spare a dime?
Biden said very clearly the money appropriated for more wall was done by Congress during the Trump Admin, and when Biden’s people asked Congress to do something else .. they refused. I have yet to find any news which is detailing the best way to stop the immigrants from traveling. Why are all these people fleeing their countries? Gangs? Failed crops? Given the large number Venezuelans lately, we can only assume all the smart ones fled Maduro years ago for Brazil/Colombia/Ecuador, and the not so educated ones later went north. Find out why theyre coming here and buy whatever they need to keep them down there! Food is cheap.
It’s really no coincidence that the Venezuelans are coming here is large numbers after Trump put sanctions on them. Same with Cuba.
I pretty sure opening the gate wide open and giving everyone that crosses it illegally a phone and $2,200 a month is not going to solve the problem.
Q: Why do you rob banks?
A: Because that’s where the money is.
Q: Why do you come to the United States?
A: The answer is left as an exercise for the reader.
There was an extremely long bear market during the 60s to the 70s, it lasted about 16 years. Stocks don’t always go up and neither does housing.
With that being said, I wouldn’t discourage anyone from having a 401k and retirement saving vehicles along those lines, because no one can say with certainty how long the next bear market will last.
More money has been going into straight fixed accounts which have a guaranteed return that keeps going up.
The US federal government is not spending anywhere near 44% of GDP. At $5.7t that is 21.1% of $27t GDP. Pretty normal number historically. I can only think he means including state and local spending, which is $4.4t. That’s still only 37% of GDP.