Nate Silver sees the Senate as a tossup. I disagree. 
Tipping Point Definition
The tipping point state is determined by ordering margins of victory in decreasing order (largest to smallest)
The tipping point is the state with the smallest percentage margin of victory that wins control of the Senate.
Since Republicans hold the White House and a tie-breaking Vice-Presidential vote, Republicans need 50 seats and Democrats 51 to control the Senate.
In this case, Democrats need to pick up four seats to have a majority.
Assuming Democrats pick up four or more, the tipping point would be the state with the smallest percentage margin of victory that put Democrats over the top.
A Tour of Seven Tipping Point States
Please consider A Tour of Seven Tipping Point States
- Texas: Democratic win probability 59%. Tipping point probability 13%
- Ohio: Democratic win probability 62%. Tipping point probability 12%
- Iowa: Democratic win probability 44%. Tipping point probability 11%
- Maine: Democratic win probability 70%. Tipping point probability 11%
- Michigan: Democratic win probability 68%. Tipping point probability 11%
- Alaska: Democratic win probability 42%. Tipping point probability 9%
- North Carolina: Democratic win probability 91%. Tipping point probability 4%
Those are interesting numbers. Nate Silver gives the polls behind the numbers.
Silver is way ahead of the pack regarding Texas and Ohio. Assuming he is correct, I fail to see how this is tossup instead of lean Democrat.
However, his definitions of lean are a bit more stringent than others. Silver comments “[Texas] is just a hairsbreadth away from moving from a toss-up to lean D.
For Democrats, at least those who put any faith in Silver, that’s quite an encouraging statement.
Iowa Tipping Point
Iowa is a small step down in tipping point probability, although 12 percent versus 11 percent isn’t hugely meaningful. But unlike the previous two states, the Democratic candidate is not leading in the polls. It’s essentially a dead heat: Republican and current US House member Ashley Hinson leads state legislator and gold-medal Paralympian Josh Turek by just 0.3 points in our average. In terms of forecasted margin of victory, our Deluxe model expects this to be the closest Senate race this cycle at R +1.5
And in this case, the fundamentals also aren’t doing Democrats any favors. Our simple and fancy estimates both end up around R +3. Why so little difference? Iowa is an open seat race where neither candidate is an electorally experienced overperformer or a scandal-plagued mess. So adding incumbency, fundraising, and experience doesn’t move FLIPR too far from the baseline.
Silver is looking at political fundamentals, oblivious to the economics.
Farmers have been crucified by Trump policies.
Iowa Economic Fundamentals
- Trump’s trade war with China cost farmers exports.
- Trump’s tariffs raised the price of farm machinery.
- Trump’s inane war with Iran has diesel and fertilizer prices soaring.
- Deportation madness is impacting crop picking.
Alaska
The betting markets Democrat odds in Alaska significantly higher than Silver, with Ohio and Texas significantly lower.
I see no reason to not rate Alaska a tossup.
To avoid cherry picking, I suspect Democrat odds are a bit less in Texas and Ohio than Silver, but a bit better in Alaska and Iowa.
Conslusion
I am revising my odds of Democrats winning the Senate up to 57 percent from 55 after reading Silver’s analysis.
Related Posts
August 2, 2026: Don’t Be Shocked if Democrats Take Six Republican Senate Seats
The grim setup for Republicans in the midterms keeps building.
August 11, 2026: Two Betting Markets Now Have Democrat Talarico Ahead in Texas Senate Race
The betting markets are catching up to my prediction.
August 14, 2026: Trump Says “I’ll Never Apologize, You’re Just Paying a Tiny Bit More”
Trump just handed the Democrats another midterm election talking point.
Hello Farmers
Hello farmers, are you happy paying a tiny 46 percent more for diesel?
The stupidest thing about this “tiny percent” is that it is not just gasoline of diesel. It’s fertilizer, aluminum, copper, microchips, and everything else too.
I have been talking about the possibility of Democrats picking up six seats all year.
In January, the idea seemed ridiculous.
It should no longer be ridiculous to anyone.
– Declining Popularity of the Democratic Party in 2026:
The Democratic Party is experiencing significant challenges in 2026, marked by a notable decline in popularity among voters. Recent polling indicates that only 27% of registered voters view the party positively, which is the lowest rating since 1990. > Now that’s saying something…
– Several key factors are contributing to this decline:
Internal Divisions: The party is facing growing internal conflicts, particularly between centrist and progressive factions. This division has led to concerns about the party’s ability to unify and present a cohesive platform. > Hmm, you don’t say?
– Impact of Newcomers:
The rise of new, progressive candidates has created rift within the party. While these candidates have energized some voters, they also risk alienating moderate Democrats and swing voters who may prefer more centrist policies. > It’s happening…
The real question is what happens if the democrats don’t win control of the senate and the house. Two more years of this shit? I don’t think the US will survive it. I think some states will finally say enough and leave. So many people are waiting for November and hoping for some respite from this nightmare. Imagine the gnashing of teeth if there is no change? I actually can’t.
I like that scenario! But then, I’m an accelerationist.
The idea of your Democratic Party back in control in its present condition is so horrible I can’t bear to think about it. Maybe it would at last bring on an open military dictatorship. One can only hope there are SOME able men in America, apart from Trump.
And if Trump isn’t able to do something about your galloping public debt, given that he is only making slow progress on your other serious problems, what do you think an incoming Democratic administration would do about that? I see horrific economic conditions and draconian laws, like those depicted in Ayn Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged.” Unfortunately, the story in real life is not likely to have the more-or-less happy ending she depicted.
In 2 months, Regular Unleaded will be over $5 per gallon, approaching $6 in many states. If that is the case, Democrats will win all those races.
Trump will probably be acting increasingly unhinged as impeachment closes in on him. No telling how he might act out.
great point. all evil empires crumble. i witnessed the old USSR in the 1990s. the young folks could handle the fact the old empire was no more. the over 40 crowd, not so much. it was also a great time and unbelievable opportunity for business people like my old russian pals who had defected and went back to profit. i imagine the next decade in usa will have echoes of the same stories.
Vis a vis the Iowa farmer vote, Corn and Soybean prices are also up 10-20% since Trump was elected, which easily mitigates the higher costs of crop creation.
And, since what’s good for the goose is good for the gander, if Iowa farmers are handicapped by higher input prices, why isn’t the GOP ahead in the Oil patch of Texas?
In reality, very few Americans aren’t better off today, than four years ago.
Btw, if El-Sayed wins Michigan, then America has some big problems, but alas, in the only post-primary poll, he trails Rogers.
Texas is 100% about Paxton
No doubt that Paxton is a disaster. If Trump had stayed out of senate races over the past decade, the GOP would be sitting on 55-56 seats.
Mish, I have another Subject for you to look into: first LISTEN TO CHRIS WHALEN on Julia La Roche’s podcast.
He points to PRIVATE EQUITY or CREDIT getting their filthy hands on INSURANCE products like Annuities.
In my state, Annuities are insured but STILL I am wondering how bad it could get (Like 2008?). MORE shenanigans.
annuities are only as good as the promises of the insurance C suite folks. i wouldn’t trust them for a decade or two down the line. but to each their own.
While folks argue, the real people in charge, thr banks terse, keep getting away with everything. You will get more inflation and lower value of the dollar.
I say, Democrat victories are bad for the nation, but no tears shed for Republican defeats, whose victories are as bad for the nation.
It will be hard times for a dem winning any of these seats. Everyone on the national level will expect them to tow the party line. Part of the problem is we the people have lost site that a representative should represent the voters of their district. Not calling them a traitor when they don’t tow the line.
Look at fetterman in the dems. Republicans are worse. Look at massise.
Iowa’s main crops are corn & soybeans, and hogs.
Corn & soybeans are harvested by large machine.
I’d imagine the hog farmers are the ones most affected by the deportations.
Farmers get taken care of by either party. Seems they find it really hard to vote for a dem. Trump screwed them in during his first term and they still voted for him again. Won by 13 percent if i recall.
You either believe or have to admit to yourself you were wrong. Admitting to be wrong is a hard pill to swallow.
Be interested to see what frosty has to say.
most old men over the age of 30 have a very hard time admitting they were duped and had. human nature 101.
I appreciate your work.
I have two respectful rejoinders.
1) “For Democrats, at least those who put any faith in Silver, that’s quite an encouraging statement.” My rejoinder: Silver’s climactic failure in 2016. He has all these data points swirling and sounding good. But still.
2) “Farmers have been crucified by Trump policies.” My rejoinder: fear (versus considered economic arguments), propelling GOP success since Clinton. About 90 years ago, a guy convinced his country that Jews and Bolshevism required them to attack the world. Now, out of a slightly muddied but basically blue sky of global prosperity, a cabal convinced angry selfish Americans that sinister Canadians and the like require trade war and collapse of global trade into (now literal) war. Now Trump is telling farmers, soldiers etc. not to be wussies, to suck it up, to stave off the Iranians, commies and Canadians. And I suspect many will.
Just a day or so after AG Blanche endorsed a NY GOP governor candidate at a campaign event with DJT…
Your new AG, folks
Hang on–his ethical and legal lines are very broad
WELKER: Can you pledge the DOJ will always act independently of the WH?
BLANCHE: No, I’m not going to pledge that
WELKER: So if the president asked you do to something that you feel crosses an ethical or legal line, would you do it?
BLANCHE: He would never do that. He never has. He never will.
Amazing that I can still be amazed at this administration. The US Attorney General, unreal.
Blanche’s comment makes me spit my coffee. But there is a precedent: Robert Kennedy as AG. Then again, that didn’t go so well for JFK, did it? They aired him out.
i bet on D house and senate months ago at roughly 33% odds. now it’s almost 50%. i’m sure there will be some ICE and us military at voting sites in swing districts in flyover countries to tip the scales. maybe trump just declares national emergency and does the reichstag fire event. but i see that happening in 2028 when he wants to stay in power in half the country. crumbling evil empire. most end up splitting up
Smart bet! Count on ICE at polling places.
no doubt about that.
My money says high probability of Reichstag fire event this fall, maybe even after the election: federal attack on state elections and systems. Trump in the front row at the SCOTUS gallery, with troops standing by for “national security” and “moral support.”
Naw, he wouldn’t dare….the states know how to protect themselves.
he’ll really freak out in 2028, when he’s close to going back to being a private citizen and his arrest could potentially happen. i think 2026 will just be a little sneak preview to the civil war unwinding of our empire. i lived in charleston SC for a wonderful decade. looked out my office window at fort sumter. it’s not like the usa has been unified for 250 years. like many yankees believe.
He’ll be heading back to the golf course in 2028 (if not before).
I predict that the GOP will have much trouble getting Trump off the stage, however.
Basically, he’s their problem, thank goodness.
Nate missed Trump so he maybe worried about under counting the pedos and perverts and billionaire lackeys
Mish, why do you still put it so much effort following races between D and R? Why dont you spend that same amount of time going door to door and asking neighbors whether they would vote for you if you ran for the House?
Mish, if you decide to go door to door to gauge interest, I wonder whether you should lead with: “Hello. I am wondering whether to run as an independent for the House and want to gauge interest from non-voters. Did you refuse voting during the last election?”. If they voted, dont bother asking for support from them, cuz theyre too stupid. You need to find neighbors who dont vote but might give a shit if you were a candidate.
Rank Choice Voting and Trump never even wins the Republican nomination in 2016. If you want someone not from the Uniparty, first change the systemic issues. According to my Google query, roughly 45% of people self identify as independent. Actual voters registered independent is 29-32%. Our country deserves more than Coke or Pepsi. Once upon a time, in the early years, there were several parties. But natural human progression devolves into us vs them. We need to change the script. With RCV even individuals unassociated with a party would have a reasonable chance to win. But need to start small so people can see how works. Amazing that in a country with so many choices on what to buy, where to live, whom to work for, we can’t get out of own way and out of own silos.
Yes but you can’t change the voting system without people first electing enough indies to pass legislation like that. R and d will never do it.
no offense to mish or you, but i don’t think some random blogger should start at us representative level going door to door. that’s a waste of time. unless he has bottomless pit of money and swagger and magnetism. start like most of us, who love democracy. local. try the school board or zoning board or if in a large city, the local community board that reports to the city council.
or perhaps have a rich daddy and be a reality teevee star for a dozen years and just run for president in fly over country doing rallies to dumbfucks.
> try the school board or zoning board
geezus…
8 billion people are living worse lives when a tyrant starts damaging the global economy like this. … The school board?
And who knows how many die directly from the wars or from the economic consequences?
you think some guy like mish is qualified and would get any votes running for us congress. if you believe that, i have a bridge in my old hometown of kings county NYC to sell you, boss.
Better to try what’s rarely tried than spend time analyzing the same old nonsense (races between bandits).
I do think it’s very low probability, even though the country desperately needs it. But as the situation worsens, perhaps more people start waking up. You dont know when the moment comes, without repeated attempts.
I also believe it is better to try to do right yet fail, rather than do nothing at all.
Perhaps the most decent man I ever met, and (thank my stars) my boss for many years, ran for House (Dem). He did a lot of the door to door thing. He lost resoundingly, to a very sketchy guy but one with connections to bring bacon to our very militarized district: the other welfare state. Trump later passed favors to that family, another grotesque story I will not go into. This isn’t the world of Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. This is the world of Mister Cash-Connected Bacon Train goes to Sodom and Gomorrah.
And it was still a better use of his time than analyzing these races.
R’s are gonna lose the Senate one way or another unless people are misleading the pollsters. And unless the D’s are completely unacceptable in those states, it will be a good margin. I’m betting on it in Kalshi. It has to be!!!
Excellent analysis. I doubted you during the last election cycle but not this time around. I have no idea which way the election will go and it doesn’t really matter anymore as I’m living life large and far away from the chaos.
The only thing I am 100% sure of is…
Do worry, Trump, Walrus, GOP, and democrats will find a way to make things even worse.™
2-star Mishelin award granted for analysis and projection.
The downvoter brigade is out today! Maybe the -2 is from jealous people?
They are suckers and losers that fell for Trump “saving” them and now reality is setting in. Yeah, it’s jealously that they will have a deteriorating quality of life under the orange clown while I live it up. Poor fools don’t know what’s coming yet.
It is what it is….c’est la vie
Beef prices about to soar!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3tVPVaSYB8
MPO I always love ur comments! Do u ever share what country u live in? Im approaching retirement and considering countries to retire to. Curious how u chose where you’re at if open to sharing.
I have stated many times, I am mobile. Homes in Europe, US, and plan on adding homes in Asia and Latin America.
I have also stated many times, after 183 days you become a tax resident subject to taxation in most countries, which is not something I want to pay hence having to move with the seasons.
At the moment, I am in Europe until November when it gets too cold then I will switch to Latin America / Caribbean. After that I will be in Asia-Pacific for the 2027 year but moving around from Australia to SE Asia to maybe Japan and/or Korea. The weather (and earthquakes) will dictate the location.
You need to think about where you will be happy. If language is an issue for you, Malaysia speaks English, has good health care and is low cost. If you want to be closer to US then Caribbean might be an option. If language not an issue, then the world is your oyster.
Countries with favorable taxation for permanent residency (does not mean zero): Panama, Ecuador, Uruguay, Malaysia, Malta, Turkey (just started new program) come to mind. Tax laws change frequently, Thailand was hot until they screwed up their visas and tax laws. I planned on Portugal but they too changed tax laws and visa policies due to complaints from locals as westerners started buying up all the property. Eastern Europe (Albania & Georgia) have 1 year visa stays for Americans but you need to watch that 183 day tax residency trap.
Spain, France and most of Western Europe is one huge tax trap if that’s a consideration for you. Great to visit, bad to live long term, pay taxes and worst die, terrible estate taxes (if you have a sizeable estate).
I highly recommend you do a “survey” trip and make sure you are compatible with the host country before you make any hard plans.
There’s a guy on Youtube named Andrew Henderson that runs Nomad Capitalist. I follow him as he’s up to date on latest tax laws and immigration policies.
https://www.youtube.com/@nomadcapitalist
Like a high-end RVer.
Good luck to you!
We are mobile, Too! USA, Canada, Portugal and so on.
Oh, yeah, we cannot be “ourselves” here or otherwise they will hang a label on you. Haters who are not the types to be forgiving for someone being Gay, or R or D or I or whatever the fuck we want to be.
EVEN BEING OLDER is now unforgivable here in some eyes. It is sad but the hatred is widespread and more political and impolite than ever before.
Begin OLDER is a crime now.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2026/08/15/elderly-democrats-forced-retire/
So just don’t do it.
Next question Who is on the short list to retire from the Supreme Court?
bonus question Will Trump get another judge on the court and whom might that be?
Hormuz will become a US territory. So much winning !
Anyone know how long it will take the USS George Washington to get there?!
So we are concerned about a slightly different set of snouts in the trough?
Farmers may have been crucified by Trump, your terms, but they ain’t pulling that D lever–that is, if Iowa is to go Blue it won’t be because farmers will pull the left hand lever, they would just have to stay home. Since I believe they won’t, I wanna take a wager it stays red in Iowa–as someone who is on the ground in Iowa not in Iowa City, Cedar Falls or to a lesser extent Ames. Regardless of economics, the left has a culture problem that runs counter to Iowa values.
Grew up in Davenport, IA, now in Denver, CO, and I agree. Iowa will stay Red.
What about the culture of covering up pedophiles and wars of choice and brazen corruption
Cultural values? What the fuck are you talking about?
Grow up
Yeah, and James Dell Collins (his fake last name is now Talarico) is more of a soy boy than Beto O’Rourke. Does not seem like a good fit for Texas, and likely will not be a good fit in 2032 if he wins this year and runs for re election. I guess Dems think a soy boy like him will be a better candidate as Texas becomes more like Commiefornia.
“Adopted by his stepfather, Mark Talarico, after which he took the surname Talarico.”
Why the hell would you try to make this out to be a bad thing? You want to sling dirt? Why don’t you describe how Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was impeached by the state House of Representatives in May 2023 on 20 charges of corruption and misuse of office.
When are we going to stop ignoring crime and corruption in office?
There aren’t that many farmers in Iowa. I grew up in small town Iowa. I hardly knew any farmers.
Hopefully, neither. The only congress that wins for the average citizen is when there is gridlock in dc.
It doesn’t matter, really. The donorCRAT Party will always have just the right number of rotating villains to tip the scales in favor of their corporate capitalist bosses.
– Texas: Democratic win probability 59%. TP 13% > Last time a Democrat won a Texas Senate seat, was 1988. Not happening with this Democrat Candidate. Maybe 40%?
– Ohio: Democratic win probability 62%. TP 12% > On Jan 3 2027, the Republicans took control of Both Senate Seats. Ohio wanted a change. Nothing has changed that significantly, to have that situation change now. More like a 40% Chance to me.
– Iowa: Democratic win probability 44%. Tipping point probability 11% > May be closer to literally a toss up perhaps?
– Maine: Democratic win probability 70%. Tipping point probability 11% > Democrats & Collins win easily.
– Michigan: Democratic win probability 68%. Tipping point probability 11% > Democrats Win but closer to high 50’s perhaps?
– Alaska: Democratic win probability 42%. Tipping point probability 9% > May be closer to literally a toss up perhaps?
– North Carolina: Democratic win probability 91%. Tipping point probability 4% > Auto Dem.
I can picture 4R & 3D a plausible outcome.
Paxton is despised by even his Republican supporters.
Talerico is smart, young, good looking and an eloquent speaker.
None of the Republican attacks have landed on Talerico.
Paxton & Abbott have enraged many business men and veterans with their recent banning of Delta-8 and THCa.
Hispanic support has evaporated with Trump and his ICE attacks on Hispanics.
Texans are angry. The time for change is upon us.
I cannot put into words the level of contempt in which I hold Hispanics who voted for Trump.
I mean, he openly said, multiple times, how much he despises Hispanics. He openly said, multiple times, how he wanted the US to be a “white country”.
Nothing that he did should have surprised anyone. He did EXACTLY what he said he would do.
So, if you are Hispanic and still voted for him…well, fuck you.
To be fair, it’s not as if anyone seriously expected Trump to keep any campaign promises.
I suspect that a lot of voters, Hispanic and otherwise, simply wanted change and we ready to roll the dice.
Needless to say, they rolled snake eyes.
It is my opinion if you dig down to into the 2 percentage points trump gained from groups that dont like him. You may just find a very targeted social media campaign. Maybe on x
cambieu, I can find NO evidence of Trump EVER having said what you claim. None…nope, nothing. I have a lot of problems with the Don, but there’s no need to mischaracterize. He’s always, to my knowledge, characterized it as a legal v. illegal immigration issue.
– Paxton is despised by even his Republican supporters. > Not even close. He is a Republican so he’s despised by Democrat voters. As you state above, Republicans Supporters love him, and that’s why they are called his supporters. Democrats don’t like him, and that’s why they are called his Non-Supporters…
– Talerico is smart, young, good looking and an eloquent speaker. > A Communist as well, so don’t leave that out…
– None of the Republican attacks have landed on Talerico. > They will land during the voting stage, and he will be dust in the wind by then…
– Paxton & Abbott have enraged many business men and veterans with their recent banning of Delta-8 and THCa. > Name the top 10 Businesses and if you can, but you can’t, but if so, then those are your 10 voters and their friend’s and families. Won’t be enough…
– Hispanic support has evaporated with Trump and his ICE attacks on Hispanics. > With bad Hispanics, here illegally or otherwise, he is a threat to there rabid ways. The Families, and Relatives etc, love Trump and what he is accomplishing for the good Hispanics that want to assimilate and be good Americans. This isn’t hard…
Texans are angry. The time for change is upon us. > Not in the least! Where do you get this from? Texas is a very, very strong Republican and Trump supporter State!!!
It doesn’t matter if your voters or donors despise you. Their votes and their dollars count the same as any other vote and dollar.
Haha smart young good looking and a eloquent speaker.
Ask someone years ago why they voted for trump. Oh hes like us.
The data does not confirm:
https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/texas-republicans-remain-loyal-to-trump-while-his-job-approval-sags-among-other-groups-2
Trump’s approval in TX is 43%. Disappval 49%.
Ask Hong about Polls…
So what better data do you have? Wishful thinking?
Too early to say anything. Thing can change in the last one or two weeks to elections. We have seen that many times before
Stalin said something like
it doesnt matter who gets the votes
it matters who counts the votes
update that to
and it matters who can remote link to the Barack Soros voting machines
That is where this is heading. Regardless of who wins, Trump has created people who spout this kind of nonsense.
But its true. It was true before R’s began saying it like a tic.
The spoils of election victory are too great. The temptation to cheat is immense. Rigging ballots required bribing more people. Now the rigging is consolidated.
But the election-day rigging is between D and R. The most important “rigging” is the rigging of people’s minds via propaganda. Telling people who’s electable and who isnt. Faking poll data. Making bogus comparisons. By the time November comes, the oligarchs win either way.
The biggest election rigging is gerrymandering. And it is cheered on by the people.
…and add SuperPacs to that list.
It is important enough to change. But nowhere near as important as brainwashing.
As it stands, its importance is limited by the fact it helps one of the two teams of crooks secure territory over the other. That’s like saying it ensures you get a Coke instead of a Pepsi. (Or vice versa.) But in an open league with more drinks, it would become more important.
I always am confused by how much ire Soros gets by these types. Like, sure he’s endemic to the whole money having outsized influence on politics.
But didn’t every evil tech ceo and shitty money grubbing industrialist show up to the literal inauguration?