Here are 10 Senate races in 6 models, one of them mine.
Split Ticket Model
Split Ticket: First, we constructed a generic ballot average of registered voters, which was weighted for pollster quality according to VoteHub’s pollster scorecard. Next, we calibrated the microdata from all of The Argument/Verasight’s monthly polls in 2026 to this baseline average and then applied a likely voter screen to the survey microdata.
After doing this, we calculated the swing from the presidential margins at a state, regional, and national level, for each demographic — with each geography’s swing weighted for sample size in the composite aggregate. We then constructed a likely electorate at the district and state level alike and applied this demographic-level swing to that electorate, before adjusting each estimate for incumbency and prior candidate overperformance (using Split Ticket’s Wins Above Replacement scores).
This was then blended with two other components: a statistical model trained on the last four election cycles and polling averages internally computed for each House and Senate race. Finally, we conducted a Monte Carlo simulation, with correlated error terms on demographic, state, and national levels.
Aggregated polls were gathered via VoteHub’s polling API. Polling microdata was taken from monthly The Argument/Verasight surveys. Likely voter screens were created through a mixture of data from the Catalist voter file and self-reported voter enthusiasm
Three Nate Silver Models
Nate Silver FLIPR: FLIPR stands for Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings.
FLIPR is a hat tip to the inherently probabilistic nature of the forecast — we run 40,000 simulations every time the model is updated. It’s not as simple as “flipping coins”, but the simulations are necessary because of the complex relationships between different types of races.
And the FLIPR acronym is also rather descriptive. FLIPR essentially consists of three different layers stacked on top of one another: polls, non-polling leading indicators (e.g., fundraising, incumbency) or what we sometimes call “fundamentals”, and then a final layer of race ratings from longstanding outside expert groups like the Cook Political Report.
Three versions of FLIPR
Lite derives as much information as possible from polls alone;
Classic is polls + fundamentals;
And Deluxe is polls + fundamentals + expert ratings.
While Deluxe is our default version, almost all of the charts and tables on the FLIPR landing page allow you to, uh, flip back and forth between these versions. The way FLIPR is designed, the expert ratings layer is probably the least important — the proverbial “icing on top.” But if you want a forecast without any expert ratings, we have you covered with Lite and Classic.
PolyMarket
Polymarket is a betting market. Odds are set by betters, no more no less.
Nate Silver and SplitTicket ignore the betting markets. I don’t.
Three states stand out on Polymarket vs Nate Silver and SplitTicket. Those states are Iowa, Maine, Kansas. Nate Silver’s Nebrasksa Lite stands out from everything else.
Mish
I look at everything (polls and betting markets) and I factor in where I think the economy inflation and sentiment is headed.
I also look at sentiment, Cook Political, individual poll cross tabs, and momentum.
I weigh recent high quality polls heavily, and toss stale polls much more than Nate Silver.
In the end, it’s just a mental assessment of everything above, but not an average. If I have a reason I will bend towards one of the above models.
I was the first of anyone above to get to a 60 percent then 65 percent chance of Democrats winning the Senate.
But I am reluctant to go much higher than 65 percent because of betting markets on Iowa and Maine.
Yet, the single most likely event is Democrats pick up a net of 6 Senate seats.
My Two Key Assumptions
Democrats hold Minnesota
Democrats hold Michigan
My assumptions are not quite a done deal.
I will go with SplitTicket at 75 percent on Michigan and my assessment of 85 percent for Minnesota.
Excluding Michigan and Minnesota provides a convenient starting point for a discussion of eight possible Democrat pickup states. And there are many ways of Democrats winning the Senate without Michigan.
Eight Possible Pickup States
The eight possible Democrat pickup states are Alaska, Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska.
Democrats are ahead in five of those states (Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas) in every model.
To win the Senate, Democrats need to pick up a net of four and North Carolina is a given. The odds are stacked in Democrats favor.
Democrats can win the Senate with modest one to two percent polling errors, and perhaps more, depending on the state.
Alaska Senate
Nate Silver Deluxe: 63.0
Nate Silver Classic: 58.6
Nate Silver Lite: 65.8
Polymarket: 74.0
SplitTicket: 67.0
Mish: 74.0
The betting markets were well ahead of Silver all year and still are vs Silver Classic. I have followed Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign and concluded early on she would win.
That is one hell of a slogan. You can watch her video here.
It appears as if Nate Silver’s models view Peltola as a Democrat in a Republican state. I view Peltola as an Alaskan running for Alaska, with a strong message.
I side with Polymarket at 74 percent.
North Carolina Senate
Nate Silver Deluxe: 95.8
Nate Silver Classic: 94.1
Nate Silver Lite: 96.4
Polymarket: 96.0
SplitTicket: 95.0
Mish: 99.0
This is a done deal. Democrat Roy Cooper will win easily.
Republicans abandoned the state and are no longer running ads.
Cook Political commented “Stick a fork in it.”
Ohio Senate
Nate Silver Deluxe: 72.5
Nate Silver Classic: 69.6
Nate Silver Lite: 76.1
Polymarket: 62.0
SplitTicket: 66.0
Mish: 68.0
Democrat Sherrod Brown is running in a Republican state. But Brown is a former US Senator and Ohio has issues (diesel in a farm state, and data centers that are very unpopular).
Local anger over energy bills and lost farmland hits two key battleground races.
In Ohio, I don’t discount the betting markets entirely, but counting on Ohio acting like a solid red state is now wrong.
Texas Senate
Nate Silver Deluxe: 71.8
Nate Silver Classic: 70.1
Nate Silver Lite: 71.1
Polymarket: 63.0
SplitTicket: 72.0
Mish: 68.9
Interestingly, SplitTicket has the highest odds for Democrat James Talarico at 72 percent.
In contrast, Polymarket is 63 percent. I believe Polymarket betters are counting on Texas acting like Texas. Even still, Polymarket favors Talarico.
Importantly, Talarico has weathered the Republican lie about him being in recovery in Ohio, and also a huge surge of Republican money hoping Paxton can pull this off.
Yet, Paxton has so much garbage it’s hard to understand how he is polling as high as he does.
My 68.9 is an average of Nate Silver Deluxe, Split Ticket, and Polymarket.
Trafalgar is a Republican pollster with a good track record. I rate that poll highly.
Much will depend on turnout of Hispanics, urban voters, and white rural voters. Sentiment for Paxton is only strong among MAGA.
I expect Hispanics and Independents will carry the day for Talarico.
Maine Senate
Nate Silver Deluxe: 71.8
Nate Silver Classic: 68.3
Nate Silver Lite: 69.6
Polymarket: 56.0
SplitTicket: 63.0
Mish: 58.0
I am strongly influenced by Polymarket and history.
Historically, Republican Sue Collins normally outperforms her polls in elections. And she does not have the corruption baggage of Paxon in Texas. Finally, Democrats have a very weak candidate in Troy Jackson.
The most recent quality poll is Suffolk University at Jackson +2 on October 8-11, released today.
49%Troy Jackson (D)
47%Susan Collins (R)
4% undecided
That’s easily within the margin of error. So, I am an uneasy 58 percent for Jackson.
I do not fault anyone who calls this race a tossup. But I see it as tilt Democrat.
Iowa Senate
Nate Silver Deluxe: 58.5
Nate Silver Classic: 54.9
Nate Silver Lite: 59.0
Polymarket: 42.0
SplitTicket: 50.0
Mish: 52.0
Iowa is the first big divergence between the betting markets (42.0) and Nate Silver Deluxe (58.5). That’s a massive 16.5 percentage point differential.
I asked Nate Silver for an explanation. He did not answer. I wonder if he ever answers anything. I am batting something like zero out of ten responses from Silver.
This is a genuine tossup in my opinion. However, a Marist University Poll out today is encouraging for Democrats.
Josh Turek (D): 48%
Ashley Hinson (R): 45%
Don’t Know: 5%
Someone Else: 2%
Someone Else may easily be the deciding factor for Turek.
Note that Democrat Rob Strand is +7 over Zach Lahn for Governor. That’s an added bonus that may pull Turek over the line.
Finally, Republicans cannot be excited about what Trump has done to farmers. Many will stay away.
Nebraska Senate
Nate Silver Deluxe: 30.2
Nate Silver Classic: 30.5
Nate Silver Lite: 49.2
Polymarket: 28.0
SplitTicket: 28.0
Mish: 32.0
Nebraska would be a huge upset. I don’t see it and nor does anyone else. However, a roughly one-in-three shot, or even a one-in-four shot is not nothing.
Republicans are spending money defending the state, something no one thought feasible.
This also serves to balance out the one-in-four shot Republicans have in Michigan.
Kansas Senate
Nate Silver Deluxe: 50.2
Nate Silver Classic: 48.2
Nate Silver Lite: 58.9
Polymarket: 38.0
SplitTicket: 42.0
Mish: 52.0
Kansas and Alaska have something very much in common. Both have non-traditional Democrats running.
Adam Hamilton [the Democrat] is the senior pastor of the Resurrection, a United Methodist Church, the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States, with multiple locations in the Greater Kansas City area.
Mish’s Four-Point Take
Hamilton is a popular minister and a moderate.
Democrats could not possibly have picked a stronger candidate.
Trump’s policies are extremely unpopular in farm states.
Marshall is viewed as too supportive of Trump.
Private polling from both parties shows a deadlocked race between Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state Trump carried by 16 points in 2024.
“It’s a perfect storm,” said one senior Senate GOP aide, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race. “The president isn’t making it any better.”
Kansas and Iowa may easily go together. And if that’s Democrats’ direction, we are talking a plus six pickup for Democrats.
And if Iowa and Kansas fall in line, that line is going to straight through the heart of MAGA because Texas will surly follow.
Projected Seats Split Ticket
I agree the single most likely outcome is Democrats 53 for a gain of 6.
For comparison purposes, the Nate Silver Lite average is 53 with Deluxe and Classic at 52 .
SplitTicket’s plus 8 at 10 percent seems too high. Yet that just takes the straight line I discussed plus Nebraska.
The Overall Odds of Winning the Senate
Nate Silver Deluxe: 74.4
Nate Silver Classic: 70.6
Nate Silver Lite: 74.7
Polymarket: 64.0
SplitTicket: 65.0
Mish: 65.0
Until we see more polls on Maine, Iowa, and Kansas, I am holding at 65 percent with the single most likely individual outcome as Democrats winning 6 seats.
Enten said the Senate is “too close to call,” This is correct, as it is and has been since the start.
What he didn’t say was “Democrats will have to wait until Election Day to see if polling is right, or if Republicans outperform” how I know that, is the following words: “If Republicans Outperform” because that’s an absolutely ridiculous thing to say. Republicans have been “In Control” of the Senate, for years, and just have to what they have been doing, and that’s winning. If they were to “Outperform” it would mean taking virtually each and every seat. Now while that’s possible, it’s highly unlikely, but would be the “Republicans Outperforming” for certain.
“Republicans now hold a majority in both the House and Senate”. Another true statement.
This would be another true statement: “As the president is traversing the nation, he is gaining ground except for the surprise polls that pop up saying otherwise, but against what’s actually occurring in the real world. In other words “Fake Polls” after “Fake Polls” that don’t mean anything, don’t match with what’s actually happening, and push an agenda obviously…
Ironically it’s the Republicans that hold everything, and the Democrats are trying to overturn this fact. The Democrats must do much more to overturn the obvious… They are losing, until they are winning, but they haven’t done so as of yet.
Stu
17 days ago
A lot of what I see written here and elsewhere, has references to race, groupings, labels etc. if we were to take that information and break it down by election, it could be possible to have more accuracy when polling. It needs to be complete (no partial) by location.
So if to simply quickly GUESS…
Ex. 1. Muslims will vote 90%-100% Democrat.
Ex. 2. Whites will vote 70%-80% Republican.
Ex. 3. Corp. will vote 60%-80% for Republican.
Ex. 4. Artist will vote 70%-80% for Democrat.
Ex. 5. Teachers Unions will vote 100% Democrat.
Ex. 6. Blue Collar will vote 50%-50% Parties.
Ex. 7. Poor will vote 70%-90% Democrat.
Has anyone broken it down to such (much longer and much more accurate list of course) an extent, to see if the accuracy holds up, utilizing past elections with accurate data? Do we have such access to information, and if so, why not try it specifically on the Senate Elections, but by using only similar criteria like I suggested above. Not too in-depth via detail, or even why, but more raw, so yes, less accurate perhaps, but unknown.
I think it could be, but I don’t have access to believable and truly accurate information, which would be needed or it’s trash data…
Stu
17 days ago
Alaska – lean Republican. I suspect R Dan Sullivan will win by a smaller %, now that D Leslie jumped ship. I don’t believe it will be that close, with Mary Peltola on the ticket, but enough to cause a stir in the MSM and most Dem circles, but to no avail of course.
Kansas – lean Republican. I suspect R Roger Marshall to easily win this contest. I don’t believe it will be that close at all. D Adam Hamilton just doesn’t have what it would take imo.
Ohio – A true toss up state. I suspect R John Husted to be the victor, but this will be close, as D Sherrod Brown does have a lot of recognition from years gone past. This could be a big factor in how close this race truly is, unless name recognition is not as strong as I suggest.
Michigan – Lean Republican. Since D Abdul Sayed has clearly now shown whom he truly is, this race has become a Strong Lean R IMO. R Mike Rogers should have a cake walk.
Nebraska – I true toss up seat. Not sure how much the Trump support will move this needle? It may be all R Pete Ricketts has going for him. D Dan Osborn is liked, and a known name. Union attachment could hurt in some areas of voting too.
North Carolina – Lean Democrat. D Roy Cooper a former Governor is well know and liked. Michael Whatlay was a former R Chair, which doesn’t do much for him, in this race imo.
Kentucky- Lean Republican. Andy Barr has strong name recognition and a decent past performance. Charles Booker didn’t even win 50% of the D Votes. I suspect a decent fight, but with R on top in the end.
South Carolina – Toss Up. D Annie Andrews won by a fair margins, and is well spoken. R Darline Nordone did not get a glaring R endorsement. This could be very close imo.
Arkansas – Lean Republican. R Tom Cotton is a well liked incumbent, that should have no issues winning this race imo. D Hallie Shoffner not so much.
Delaware – Lean Democrat. D Chris Coons is a well liked incumbent, that should have no issues winning this race imo. R Michael Katts just not enough to get past Coons imo.
Idaho – Lean Republican. R Jim Risch is a well liked incumbent, that should have no issues winning this race imo. D/I Todd Achilles not so much in the way of funding support Vs, Risch.
Louisiana – Lean Republican. It would seem R Julia Letlow seems to have solid momentum in this race. D Jamie Davis seems to have an uphill battle, but you never know…
Montana – Lean Republican. R Kurt Alme as very strong candidate with almost no chance of losing imo. D Alain Bankhead doesn’t appear to have a chance in this race imo.
New Mexico – Lean Democrat. D Ben Ray Lujan seems to have this race well under control imo, and against a write in R Larry Marker.
Oregon – Lean Democrat. D Jeff Merkley seems to have this race well under control against a weaker R David Brock Smith
South Dakota – Lean Republican. R Mike Rounds should easily win this race. D Brian Bengs simply has no shot whatsoever imo.
Virginia – Lean Toss Up. D Mark Warner and R Bert Mizusawa stand around 50/50 imo, but a D State typically. We shall see…
Wyoming – Lean Republican. R Harriet Hageman seems to have a good lead and a good following. Seems well liked. D James Byrd, who did win his own primary, but was it because they really see it’s not an obtainable seat? Byrd should win by a good margin.
Not all of them yet, but a good chunk. Shows me so far, that the Dems will Need to win most or close to all of the toss ups to have a shot, but they appear to have a better shot than I had initially given them credit for, so far anyway. See when I finish later today… I still think R will rule the day, but D could make this tighter and more interesting than I did believe at first glance, because some things have since changed, and swung differently from then…
todde
18 days ago
almost every Muslim i know voted 3rd party last election. its about 50/50 now.
trump lied? oh my. next you will tell me farmers are welfare queens ?
Sentient
18 days ago
Republicans’ chances improve if Trump refrains from another big attack on Iran.
Democrats’ chances improve if Trump launches another attack.
El Capitan
18 days ago
Odds Smods. Polls Drolls. Every Republican I speak with is going to vote, and going to vote a straight Republican ticket. To my dismay….
Trying to reason with them, first softly, that they voted for Trump and his band of merry men because they were going to “fix what Biden and the Dims had broken” hasn’t worked out for them, and promises have not been kept (Only one was shutting down the border, which “supposedly” is done). But, he didn’t lower prices “on day one”, didn’t keep us out of “stupid wars”, didn’t solve Ukraine “on day one” and the actions that he did take (Big Beautiful Bill, Tarriffs, getting us into wars (Again!)) have been a shit show.
When that doesn’t work, I go to the harder push. This guy is a corrupt grifter that doesn’t give a shit about citizens and is more interested in lining his pockets and building monuments to himself (which he even manages to F up (see reflecting pool).
None of it sticks. Every time, their response is, in a nutshell, “But, Democrats are Radical Communists!).
So, I have a feeling that all these polls are wrong again. That the Trumpites will get out and vote and will vote straight party line ticket, and the Democrats will gain seats, but, not necessarily majorities or strong majorities.
Hope I’m wrong. This guy and his enablers needs to be repudiated “STRONGLY” (as Trump would say).
Of course true believers are going to drink the Kool Aid. Same goes for Team D. Team D could nominate Pinochet and they’d vote for him. Team R could run Pol Pot and they’d vote for him. Wouldn’t miss a beat.
However, elections are decided by the swing voters, not so much the cult members.
Why do you say that? Out of curiosity. I have to admit that my sample size is small, roughtly 7 buddies of mine. But, the answer has been the same every time
NEWS FLASH: After more than six months, the US has an announcement about its investigation into the “alleged” US bombing of a girls’ school in Iran that killed 150+ people.
If they had any exonerating information to share, it would have already been bragged about by Trump at five of his rallies. Everyone understands this. They will admit to regrettably murdering 158 innocent kids, but only after giving you a chance to vote for them again. Morals used to play in the GOP.
when the fuck did morals have anything to do with the GOP ? fantasy. face facts. democracy works. amerikans have been voting for vile warmongers since at least 1898. assholes elect assholes. since ancient greek times. sometimes republics are not filled with assholes. so they vote to take care of themselves and refrain from warmongering. democracy works. amerikans are assholes. face reality. much easier in life.
They did blacks, and gays, and foreigners, and nerds, and the handicapped. They always need a new punching bag, don’t they?
David Heartland
18 days ago
Mish, you seem to be celebrating the return to full Woke-ness? MAGA-NESS is bad enough. But, full woke-ness with 2 year old kids choosing their sexes is beyond intolerable.
David, please quote where Mish says anything ‘celebratory’?
His reporting is factual and he clearly states where he is giving opinion and how he arrives at it.
You, on the other hand, are spouting emotion (using language like ‘beyond intolerable’).
Your own personal biases are causing you to react strongly, and accuse Mish of doing something he has NEVER advocated for (‘return to full Woke-ness’).
What a loser you are. Two year olds choosing their sexes? First off, it’s gender, or were you intentionally being an ignoramus for the LOLz? I can only imagine the misguided hatred that stokes your fire every day.
Indeed. Full blown boomer. This guy claims he’s nearly died a bunch of times and instead of being concerned about his health, living his final days in joy or doing anything constructive, he keeps whining about woke and other stupid nonsense. Stinks of MAGA boomer but hides it to play it cool except it comes out as fool.
And they say women aren’t as emotionally stable as men. You’re a drama queen with PMS
yippee
18 days ago
biden doubled down on trump policy of tariffs. biden also sent 300billion plus dollars to help ukraine men and women get slaughtered. biden also ran shotgun with Bibi over Gaza genocide and famine. the only noticable difference i can detect with Ds in power is abortion rights. we now see it playing out at the state levels big time. let’s also be honest. obama deported tons of immigrants including children. he just did it quietly. trump and his cult applaud the ugliness of it. trump and maga cult get off on cruelty whether it’s immigrant roundups with masked ICE or in the bombing of school girls in iran. but let’s also be real. epstein operation was a CIA and mossad operation which entrapped and blackmailed many wealthy blue and red team powerful folks. why for decades it was hidden. only one to go to prison in USA was epstein’s madame in the pedophilia blackmail ring.
PS both red and blue are AIPAC. they all give more of a fuck about israel than their own pitiful constituents that keep voting for the pro zionist and pro worldwide warfare and downright idiocracy. see president comacho for exhibit A. see genocide joe for exhibit B.
there is a big difference between Genocide Joe and Trump.
Joe only genocides Muslims who can’t fight back.
and then when the democrats reap in Minnesota a sliver of what they had sown in Gaza, it is MUDER i tell you, and we all must vote Blue to get it to end.
Yippee, you are spouting straight Russian propaganda, probably influenced by your time helping the oligarchs take over after the Soviet Union collapsed.
Actual disbursed dollars is closer to $130B, over 4.5 years, equivalent to $30B a year.
Most of the military gear is defensive in nature (Javelin shoulder-fired missiles early on, Patriot missiles).
Much of it was old, retired gear (I used to be in a unit in the late 1990s using M113 troop carriers, for example. Those things just carry people around, not a threat to Russia). We also sent them 40 or 50 M1A1 Abrams tanks, which the US Marines retired from their arsenal completely.
We DID send them 20 HIMARS, but those things have a short range and I think we only spared 300 missiles for them. They can’t reach Moscow.
TLDR: The US has ‘sent’ Ukraine way, way less than propaganda says, and it is saving Ukrainian lives.
don’t give a fuck about russia or ukraine or israel…………..i am a citizen of italia and usa. i give a fuck about them. even the red and blue states. the fact is democracy works perfectly. amerikans are asshole imperial warmongers so they elect themselves. see ancient greeks and romans for explanation of why democracy works. very easy. just requires honesty.
So that must be why Ukrainians are press-ganged off the streets and forced into the army. Every Ukrainian talks about it
Happened to people I know, my cleaner’s son among others. They just didn’t know their lives are being saved, see. They really should stop resisting and go to the slaughter.
Historically polls have had errors in both directions.
Because of how voting works in the US, “stealing the election” in a national vote is next to impossible. There’s always some ugly stuff going on locally with kicking people off the rolls etc, but systematically voting is highly distributed and not something that can just be hacked nationally somehow. There are thousands of different little voting feifdoms all across America.
I believe Tom is saying the narrative that ‘the elections were stolen ‘ is being set up with the ‘polls are historically inaccurate ‘ narrative.
elections are rigged, not stolen. if they were to be stolen, i would suspect the Republicans would be the ones to steal it as rigging an election takes more brain power than stealing one.
JBirks
18 days ago
Silver’s models are garbage.Trafalgar is solid. Rich Baris Big Data Poll has been spot on for the past 3-4 election cycles. He’s got Ds taking NE KS and trending SC where Miss Ladybug is flailing. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving to the Dems.
peelo
18 days ago
“… Rising fuel costs tied to the Iran war are the main driver of inflation ….
Of the nine states where The Wall Street Journal’s election tracker lists this year’s Senate race as a tossup or merely leaning toward one party, seven saw household gasoline costs rise faster this year than the U.S. average: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Texas. …”
Perhaps I’m naive, but I do think there will be a difference between someone like Talarico in the senate or Paxton. The former might support policies you do or don’t like, but the latter will be much more corrupt on top of that. The same reasoning goes for Kansas, and I think South Carolina (although I don’t see that as truly competitive). You could argue the reasoning also holds up in Michigan but with El-Sayed as the less favourable candidate, but I do not know enough about him and his opponent to make the case either way.
I don’t have a list of fabulous things they will do, certainly not while Trump can veto. But I disagree that it is a matter of rotten oranges vs rotten apples. I think Republicans under Trump have done much worse than any governemnt before them, all things considered and I believe that Trump is actively breaking down checks and balances and the way voters can check his power. So having a counter balance to that will be good, in relative terms.
Aside from that I expect democrats in power:
Not to invade another country (Afghanistan, Irak, Iran, Venezuela all happened under republican presidents)
Not run up the deficit as hard. Trump has undeniably been the worst president for that over the last decades, without a crisis even to excuse it.
Not to gut the army’s leadership like Hegseth is doing.
Not alienate America’s allies (the only country to invoke NATO’s article 5 ever was the USA, and Europe responded).
Not support Russia pro-actively in a war against Ukraine, in a weird confusion about who America’s enemy is (hint: it;s the one that supports Iran, a country with which the USA is at war)
Try to settle abortion rights. The current laws are a disgrace.
Stop ICE killing people without accountability
Stop ugly buildings like Trump’s ball room and Arc to be paid for by the tax payer.
Be less corrupt than Trump is (not hard, I know)
And I’m sure I am forgetting much.
To me it is quite simple: it’s a comparison between a fully rotten barrel of oranges and a barrel of apples that has a lot of bad spot. Given that the system is driving towards having only 2 viable parties, I would opt for the apples that have some spots over the fully rotten oranges.
You may disagree with my assessment and that’s fine. I just don’t think that the two evils are equally evil. And I think that that matters.
Very nice list and you have confirmed you are naive, no offense of course. Democrats will have the power of the purse and can cut funding to the war, ice and whatever else they dont like but I predict they wont do any of it beyond token measures (e.g pass a resolution to stop funding the war but but but we gotta support the troops so money flows).
I will bookmark this and put it on my calendar for follow up 1 year from today, suggest you do the same. We can revisit then and see who was right. I actually hope you are but I have been thru this rodeo for 30+ years now and the bull always gores the fans.
Fair enough, let’s see how things play out. Whether or not I am naive will be clear from whatever happens after the elections. But I’ll own this list and if nothing happens on any of this then I will be disappointed. If that should be due to republican obstruction then I’ll wait and see what happens under a democratic president in a few years.
btw – add releasing the epstein files to my list, or at least more than Trump is releasing.
If you are elected to office and dont reverse the policies of the madman who preceded you, then you own the same policies.
Think of Trump laying the blame for Ukraine at the feet of biden. Trump could’ve ended the war in 24 hours like he promised. Zelensky is a sock puppet. Of course the puppet masters can end the show instantly. But Trump continued it. It is his war and Magatards’ war as much as biden’s and the dimowits.
here is what Debbie Wasserman Schultz says about the Epstein files from her archives:
‘After Biden took office in 2021, Democrats appeared to dial back their public calls for Epstein records’ release.
“Pushes for oversight and record releases were at times tempered by a need to respect both the victims’ pursuit of justice in courts and their fears of reprisals,” Wasserman Schultz told PolitiFact. “As disclosures were denied or delayed, we did what lawmakers do and legislated to protect future victims.”
The Democrats can pass laws and stop funding the war and Trump can and will veto them. And they don’t have the votes in the Senate to override a veto. The constitution will keep the Democrats from actually doing anything of value.
You can’t veto a budget into existence. Democrats will have much more control over the purse than they do now, even if it’s just the ability to not fund things.
Democrats do not want to end the War On Iran. They want to be able to bitch piously while Trump does their dirty work.
See, 2006. Team D swept into Congress on a wave of antiwar sentiment, then proceeded to kvetch from the sidelines while doing nothing to actually end the wars.
Then of course, came 2008, Obama elected, again with a mandate to end the wars. He proceeded to do no such thing but instead gave us new wars.
Give me a break, Obama ended the US combat mission in Iraq and withdrew the vast majority of US troops by the end of his first term. Biden pulled us out of Afghanistan and the Republicans cried crocodile tears about it. You are just endlessly full of shit.
>> Afghanistan, Irak, Iran, Venezuela all happened under republican presidents)
Every D or R stages or continues or escalates per MIC instruction.
Biden was a primary promoter for invading Iraq.
Obama didnt end the wars. He did “the surge”.
Iirc, obama dropped more bombs in Afghanistan than Dubya. (And iirc trump dropped even more.)
Obama/biden invaded Libya.
Obama/biden invaded Syria usong “moderate head choppers”.
Obama/Biden couped Ukraine. Began NATO integration, even if not via treaty.
Arab Spring? How closely did you read about that?
After trump, biden reversed NONE of trump’s policies. Kept the hostages in Gitmo. Starved Venezuela via financial blockade, including withholding Citgo revenue that Donald Epstein first stole.
I’m sure I’m forgetting items.
Plus the MIC classifies various deployments. We see only above the water line.
Last edited 18 days ago by most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
I can’t help but notice you don’t have ‘release the Epstein files’ on your list.
if the dems wanted to really see a blue wave, how about adding that to the things they are going to do?
the ‘apples that have some spots’ are child rapists and/or enablers of child rape.
that is rotten to the core.
the choice is a child rape enabling murderer, or a stupid child rape enabling murderer, up and down the ballot.
I am a fellow sinner, I will be right there voting for the child rapist and murderers with a D by their name, but let’s not white wash this.
Anyway, we are in a fucked up system and we all try to manage this as best we can, so this isn’t a personal attack on you. I understand the reasoning behind what you are saying.
Yes, I realised that after writing the initial post. I’m sure i missed other stuff but i figured it illustrates my point even if it wasnt complete.
Neil
18 days ago
I like your analysis Mish. I’m not sure about the exact percentages but i think your rationales make sense. One note on Silver and betting markets: Silver explained somewhere that he does not include them to avoid a feedback loop. If people use his models to inform their bets then it might become a self reinforcing system. At least that is his explanation. What I like about that approach is that it does provide two separate ways of interpreting the data that’s available.
I’m back robbyrob
18 days ago
While trying to save his majority in Congress, Trump lied to his supporters during his mad push around the country and disputed the latest BLS report on rising inflation, claiming there is no inflation and defending his illegal tariffs.
“We don’t have inflation and tariffs don’t cause inflation,” Trump spewed. “You know what they cause? Wealth.”
Trump’s denial may work on his most ardent MAGA cult members but not on the country at large.
He didn’t stop there when he praised high oil prices that are strangling the working class and have spiraled upwards because of his war with Iran.
“Our country is making more money than it’s ever made because of the fact that oil is so high,” Trump claimed.
The oil companies thank you, Mr. President.
Plutocracy by the rich, for the rich, from the rich.
todde
18 days ago
I plan on voting straight democrat and I will report back after the election and see if Trump screwed up so bad that even safe republican seats fell on my ballot.
I am curious to see how bad it will be. if it is not a severe loss for the Republicans, we are done as a country as Trump has and keeps threatening to act unconstitutionally.
not to mention the amount of grift, incompetence, and groveling by the republican party that we would be allowing without repercussions.
Well, if my neighborhood yard signs are any indication, the Republicans are going to commit massive election fraud and win. Because otherwise, they’re going to lose. Based on yard signs. Also, not a single Trump flag anywhere, which means even the 3 Republicans who have Paxton and Abbott signs don’t want Trump on the Texas ballot.
Trump made the Republicans pledge to ‘cheat like hell’ at the convention in Dallas last month.
yippee
18 days ago
the funny thing is besides abortion and a few other social issues, nobody on the planet could pass a blind test of who was in power in the us congress or POTUS in the past 6 plus decades, when given what happened regarding spending, taxing, war mongering world wide, policing, prison terms, health care, SS and countless topics. guess what. pro tip. the pax dumbfuckistan world wide mongering empire is a bipartisan project. the vast majority of people seem to keep on voting for the uniparty. nobody will vote for the greens or libertarians. those kooks are running on peace and prosperity. hat tip to the ancient greeks/romans. democracy works in all it’s iterations. always has. always will.
So poignant. Even a cynic has the onboard survival instinct to hallucinate that there is some way to fix it, some way through, some way out, some way this spaghetti can be untangled. Peace and prosperity, indeed. Goodness is achievable, right? Just not by these fools, right?
I think there is no form of governance, even theoretical, in which our species can function wisely enough to avoid mutual-, self-, and environmental immolation. I.e., the flaws in us are inherent, fundamental and not fixable (under current technology, and certainly not the sorts of tech we are building and cooing over and worshipping). No flag or philosophy or rubric fixes it. We will stagger forward into, and through, complexities we are far too dumb on average to process, in each further farcical scherzo of violence and delusion. Just enough of us squeak through each time, to re-seed the irreducibly absurd process, of course generating clever rationalizations (which is our defining trait), until we engineer our way into the next catastrophe. We are building to a big beautiful global whopper right now.
Meanwhile, I want Trump out. I reckon I’ll survive long enough to draw some benefit, even if just satisfaction.
humans can get much dumber than even the film, idiocracy or MAGA corps. after the eastern roman empire fell, the people of europe forgot to take baths even with the roman baths in their towns. they forgot the formula for cement even though they were walking on cement sidewalks and aqueducts carried water for the romans. took the italian renaisance centuries later to lift the idiots out of their stupor.
made a mistake. the western roman empire fell. the eastern roman empire lasted another 1000 years with constantinople as capitol and the currency the byzant lasting 800 years without being debased. in amerikan schools they teach in past century it was byzantines. they were merely the roman empire. perhaps amerika will just bust up. east and west. or 50 states. who knows. we did have a half time break, in 1860s. glad i lived in charleston SC for a decade. a trip to federal ft sumter and study of that situation is vital to understand how fragile the amerikan empire truly is. donald will set up a new white house in Mar A Lago in 2029 is my bet. a few folks have indicated this possibility.
Thumbs-up for the great historical context, but you’re underestimating how much the current Republican politicians actually want to get rid of Trump. His base of power will rapidly diminish once he loses badly in the mid-terms.
Here’s the important point people are missing:
Fox News viewership has collapsed by 30% in the past year as people turn away from Trump and Republican policies.
Trump’s own ‘Truth Social’ daily viewership has collapsed in half!
The US electorate is disgusted with Trump and the Republicans are going to desert him and MAGA in droves.
As Churchill said “Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”
I’ll stick with that until someone offers me something demonstrably better.
Churchill gaslighted us with that line. USA is an oligarchy and we dont even have a House of Lords to rub it in our face like the royals do explicitly in Britain.
Not going to debate the flaws of the US government. There are many. But my point is that the foundation of the US in the rule of law and the Constitution are the best frameworks for government invented yet. The US implementation is very flawed in many ways, but I think the best approach to deal with it would be to fix the flaws and end the corruption vs to go to an alternative form of government.
I stopped agreeing with that some years ago. Judging by the results, China has a better form of government.
China has elections at the local level, where voters might actually know something about candidates. The lower level then nominates and votes on whom to promote to the next level. In this scenario, the voters know the candidates pretty well. Repeat that for anothert 2-3 levels up and you end up with Xi. In 70 years since a revolution and despite all kinds of sabotage (including attempted color revolutions), Chinese serfs live as well as Oceania serfs. And China seems to be pulling ahead. (Ergo Oceania desperation.)
Contrast that with Oceania.
Oceania currently has Donald Trump. Before that, Joe Biden. Two back-to-back octogenarian dementia cases with no 25A in sight. Plus, all the top people are either rapist pedos or defend the same, as accessories before or after the fact.
Oceania can’t help but mass murder across the continent and then across the globe, during its entire existence. A genocide continues for 3 years now, with ethnic cleansing before that. Plus genociding its own continent. Plus slavery, apartheid until the 1960s, and now mere indentured servitude of purposely miseducated youth regardless of color.
Oceania can’t help but treat its serfs like shit, since the focus is always on war.
Despite successfully engineering, coming out on top of ww2, and the hybrid war against the USSR (mortally wounded from ww2, just like the French empire), Oceania squandered its economic gains. Average real earnings for the bottom half are back to 1970. To stay solvent, Oceania simply devalues the currency, imposing costs on its serfs domestically and within its financial colonies.
Oceania government is unable to reach a stable steady state within its own footprint, let alone do good for its serfs. In my book, this is failure.
Last edited 17 days ago by most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
That’s a polished turd. Yes, democracy can and must be improved. For example, how about broken campaign promises being classified as electoral fraud? How about direct democracy at the lowest levels of government?
“I think there is no form of governance, even theoretical, in which our species can function wisely enough to avoid mutual-, self-, and environmental immolation. I.e., the flaws in us are inherent, fundamental and not fixable (under current technology, and certainly not the sorts of tech we are building and cooing over and worshipping).”
This is why, after some 5,000 years of human existence, humans are still debating the issue. Successful examples of all kinds of human societies can be found, and all eventually fail.
My take is that most systems can be made to work tolerably well, if and to the extent they are run by non-sociopaths. The problem is that sociopaths are attracted to power, and, unlike normies, will do whatever it takes to get it.
The history of the medieval Catholic Church is most instructive here, and this an institution that can trace its founding to Jesus Christ Himself.
“Abortion and a few other social issues” are very important to keep the rubes voting for their respective teams.
If you’ve ever been in a room alone with Team R bigwigs, they do NOT want to talk about abortion. In fact, they would probably look at you like you loudly farted, should you bring the issue up.
Tony
18 days ago
I just heard on the news that paxton and abbott in Texas refuse to debate their opponents. What are they scared of other than being exposed for their incompetence (I am told).
born in 1960. under IKE. my claim to fame was seeing MLK jr at my older brothers college commencement. i also hung out with OJ and his wife. about a year before he was accused and found not guilty of her murder.
ummm, dude, you’re a bit out of date. Tester is out of office.
Coons, Warner and Kelly are moderates but mostly vote Democratic party line. Your boy drumpf and hogsbreath wanted to draw and quarter Kelly for reminding the sworn duty to the military too.
Good luck with all that, keep dreaming that those Democrats will bail out your cult.
Sorry, Tester was doing nothing. So, I thought he was still there!
And save your breath. I have never voted for Trump or any Republican for that matter. But I did vote for 0-bama (once), and it happened only because he is a much better scam artist than Trump.
Well fair enough. As far as Obama and Trump, we share that history identically. could never vote for drumpf and I also shamefully bought into the obama line as well.
“The primary tactic in this game is Villain Rotation. They always have a handful of Democratic Senators announce that they will be the ones to deviate this time from the ostensible party position and impede success, but the designated Villain constantly shifts, so the Party itself can claim it supports these measures while an always-changing handful of their members invariably prevent it. One minute, it’s Jay Rockefeller as the Prime Villain leading the way in protecting Bush surveillance programs and demanding telecom immunity; the next minute, it’s Dianne Feinstein and Chuck Schumer joining hands and “breaking with their party” to ensure Michael Mukasey’s confirmation as Attorney General; then it’s Big Bad Joe Lieberman single-handedly blocking Medicare expansion; then it’s Blanche Lincoln and Jim Webb joining with Lindsey Graham to support the de-funding of civilian trials for Terrorists; and now that they can’t blame Lieberman or Ben Nelson any longer on health care (since they don’t need 60 votes), Jay Rockefeller voluntarily returns to the Villain Role, stepping up to put an end to the pretend-movement among Senate Democrats to enact the public option via reconciliation.”
Don’t keep your hopes too high. They will get as many “rotating villains” as needed.
How many do you want?
Two? Fetterman and Kelly.
Three? Fetterman, Kelly and Warner.
Four? Fetterman, Kelly, Warner and Coons.
Five? Fetterman, Kelly, Warner, Coons and Tester.
I can keep going 😂
And if they ever need 14 or 15 rotating villains to defeat the filibuster, they can manage that as well. The sky is the limit! 😂
That would be me as well. I think where we disagree is that I still think it better to support the opposition against the MAGA cult, even though the opposition is its own cult.
I’ll just say that I think it is pointless to vote for a third party. If you’re going to do that, then just don’t vote. I’ve done that in the past as well (not vote that is), and frankly I don’t like any of those solutions.
There are two cults right now, I am supporting the lesser of two evil cults. I don’t claim to love it, but that’s where we are.
Imagine the Texas stakes, in Elon’s eyes. He is starting to run Texas corporate law and corporate finance like his own chained dog. It is becoming oligarchy law. Doubtless he plans to lever this into wider influence in those areas. Surely environmental and other law would follow.
” … Elon Musk has reportedly funneled a staggering $158 million through a Republican fundraising group to a Texas super PAC backing Ken Paxton’s Senate campaign.
Teddy Schleifer, a reporter for The New York Times, posted the figures on social media on Thursday. ….”
Newsweek is saying the Senate is too close to call
https://www.newsweek.com/harry-enten-raises-big-siren-over-democrats-senate-chances-12583044
Enten said the Senate is “too close to call,” This is correct, as it is and has been since the start.
What he didn’t say was “Democrats will have to wait until Election Day to see if polling is right, or if Republicans outperform” how I know that, is the following words: “If Republicans Outperform” because that’s an absolutely ridiculous thing to say. Republicans have been “In Control” of the Senate, for years, and just have to what they have been doing, and that’s winning. If they were to “Outperform” it would mean taking virtually each and every seat. Now while that’s possible, it’s highly unlikely, but would be the “Republicans Outperforming” for certain.
“Republicans now hold a majority in both the House and Senate”. Another true statement.
This would be another true statement: “As the president is traversing the nation, he is gaining ground except for the surprise polls that pop up saying otherwise, but against what’s actually occurring in the real world. In other words “Fake Polls” after “Fake Polls” that don’t mean anything, don’t match with what’s actually happening, and push an agenda obviously…
Ironically it’s the Republicans that hold everything, and the Democrats are trying to overturn this fact. The Democrats must do much more to overturn the obvious… They are losing, until they are winning, but they haven’t done so as of yet.
A lot of what I see written here and elsewhere, has references to race, groupings, labels etc. if we were to take that information and break it down by election, it could be possible to have more accuracy when polling. It needs to be complete (no partial) by location.
So if to simply quickly GUESS…
Ex. 1. Muslims will vote 90%-100% Democrat.
Ex. 2. Whites will vote 70%-80% Republican.
Ex. 3. Corp. will vote 60%-80% for Republican.
Ex. 4. Artist will vote 70%-80% for Democrat.
Ex. 5. Teachers Unions will vote 100% Democrat.
Ex. 6. Blue Collar will vote 50%-50% Parties.
Ex. 7. Poor will vote 70%-90% Democrat.
Has anyone broken it down to such (much longer and much more accurate list of course) an extent, to see if the accuracy holds up, utilizing past elections with accurate data? Do we have such access to information, and if so, why not try it specifically on the Senate Elections, but by using only similar criteria like I suggested above. Not too in-depth via detail, or even why, but more raw, so yes, less accurate perhaps, but unknown.
I think it could be, but I don’t have access to believable and truly accurate information, which would be needed or it’s trash data…
Alaska – lean Republican. I suspect R Dan Sullivan will win by a smaller %, now that D Leslie jumped ship. I don’t believe it will be that close, with Mary Peltola on the ticket, but enough to cause a stir in the MSM and most Dem circles, but to no avail of course.
Kansas – lean Republican. I suspect R Roger Marshall to easily win this contest. I don’t believe it will be that close at all. D Adam Hamilton just doesn’t have what it would take imo.
Ohio – A true toss up state. I suspect R John Husted to be the victor, but this will be close, as D Sherrod Brown does have a lot of recognition from years gone past. This could be a big factor in how close this race truly is, unless name recognition is not as strong as I suggest.
Michigan – Lean Republican. Since D Abdul Sayed has clearly now shown whom he truly is, this race has become a Strong Lean R IMO. R Mike Rogers should have a cake walk.
Nebraska – I true toss up seat. Not sure how much the Trump support will move this needle? It may be all R Pete Ricketts has going for him. D Dan Osborn is liked, and a known name. Union attachment could hurt in some areas of voting too.
North Carolina – Lean Democrat. D Roy Cooper a former Governor is well know and liked. Michael Whatlay was a former R Chair, which doesn’t do much for him, in this race imo.
Kentucky- Lean Republican. Andy Barr has strong name recognition and a decent past performance. Charles Booker didn’t even win 50% of the D Votes. I suspect a decent fight, but with R on top in the end.
South Carolina – Toss Up. D Annie Andrews won by a fair margins, and is well spoken. R Darline Nordone did not get a glaring R endorsement. This could be very close imo.
Arkansas – Lean Republican. R Tom Cotton is a well liked incumbent, that should have no issues winning this race imo. D Hallie Shoffner not so much.
Delaware – Lean Democrat. D Chris Coons is a well liked incumbent, that should have no issues winning this race imo. R Michael Katts just not enough to get past Coons imo.
Idaho – Lean Republican. R Jim Risch is a well liked incumbent, that should have no issues winning this race imo. D/I Todd Achilles not so much in the way of funding support Vs, Risch.
Louisiana – Lean Republican. It would seem R Julia Letlow seems to have solid momentum in this race. D Jamie Davis seems to have an uphill battle, but you never know…
Montana – Lean Republican. R Kurt Alme as very strong candidate with almost no chance of losing imo. D Alain Bankhead doesn’t appear to have a chance in this race imo.
New Mexico – Lean Democrat. D Ben Ray Lujan seems to have this race well under control imo, and against a write in R Larry Marker.
Oregon – Lean Democrat. D Jeff Merkley seems to have this race well under control against a weaker R David Brock Smith
South Dakota – Lean Republican. R Mike Rounds should easily win this race. D Brian Bengs simply has no shot whatsoever imo.
Virginia – Lean Toss Up. D Mark Warner and R Bert Mizusawa stand around 50/50 imo, but a D State typically. We shall see…
Wyoming – Lean Republican. R Harriet Hageman seems to have a good lead and a good following. Seems well liked. D James Byrd, who did win his own primary, but was it because they really see it’s not an obtainable seat? Byrd should win by a good margin.
Not all of them yet, but a good chunk. Shows me so far, that the Dems will Need to win most or close to all of the toss ups to have a shot, but they appear to have a better shot than I had initially given them credit for, so far anyway. See when I finish later today… I still think R will rule the day, but D could make this tighter and more interesting than I did believe at first glance, because some things have since changed, and swung differently from then…
almost every Muslim i know voted 3rd party last election. its about 50/50 now.
nobody’s voting republican.
WTI just hit $100.00
What happened with that PUTIN deal?
It was a lie!
trump lied? oh my. next you will tell me farmers are welfare queens ?
Republicans’ chances improve if Trump refrains from another big attack on Iran.
Democrats’ chances improve if Trump launches another attack.
Odds Smods. Polls Drolls. Every Republican I speak with is going to vote, and going to vote a straight Republican ticket. To my dismay….
Trying to reason with them, first softly, that they voted for Trump and his band of merry men because they were going to “fix what Biden and the Dims had broken” hasn’t worked out for them, and promises have not been kept (Only one was shutting down the border, which “supposedly” is done). But, he didn’t lower prices “on day one”, didn’t keep us out of “stupid wars”, didn’t solve Ukraine “on day one” and the actions that he did take (Big Beautiful Bill, Tarriffs, getting us into wars (Again!)) have been a shit show.
When that doesn’t work, I go to the harder push. This guy is a corrupt grifter that doesn’t give a shit about citizens and is more interested in lining his pockets and building monuments to himself (which he even manages to F up (see reflecting pool).
None of it sticks. Every time, their response is, in a nutshell, “But, Democrats are Radical Communists!).
So, I have a feeling that all these polls are wrong again. That the Trumpites will get out and vote and will vote straight party line ticket, and the Democrats will gain seats, but, not necessarily majorities or strong majorities.
Hope I’m wrong. This guy and his enablers needs to be repudiated “STRONGLY” (as Trump would say).
Of course true believers are going to drink the Kool Aid. Same goes for Team D. Team D could nominate Pinochet and they’d vote for him. Team R could run Pol Pot and they’d vote for him. Wouldn’t miss a beat.
However, elections are decided by the swing voters, not so much the cult members.
Don’t worry. You’re wrong.
Why do you say that? Out of curiosity. I have to admit that my sample size is small, roughtly 7 buddies of mine. But, the answer has been the same every time
Because Republicans don’t decide the election.
I know a few Magas who have walked away, and that was before the Iran War.
good to hear!
NEWS FLASH: After more than six months, the US has an announcement about its investigation into the “alleged” US bombing of a girls’ school in Iran that killed 150+ people.
The announcement is that the investigation report will be withheld until after the election.
https://news.antiwar.com/2026/10/15/report-pentagon-plans-to-withhold-report-on-minab-school-massacre-past-midterms/
i’m sure they will get to the bottom of it.
who is downvoting this? lol.
If they had any exonerating information to share, it would have already been bragged about by Trump at five of his rallies. Everyone understands this. They will admit to regrettably murdering 158 innocent kids, but only after giving you a chance to vote for them again. Morals used to play in the GOP.
when the fuck did morals have anything to do with the GOP ? fantasy. face facts. democracy works. amerikans have been voting for vile warmongers since at least 1898. assholes elect assholes. since ancient greek times. sometimes republics are not filled with assholes. so they vote to take care of themselves and refrain from warmongering. democracy works. amerikans are assholes. face reality. much easier in life.
Is the heart of MAGA now transphobia?
They did blacks, and gays, and foreigners, and nerds, and the handicapped. They always need a new punching bag, don’t they?
Mish, you seem to be celebrating the return to full Woke-ness? MAGA-NESS is bad enough. But, full woke-ness with 2 year old kids choosing their sexes is beyond intolerable.
David, please quote where Mish says anything ‘celebratory’?
His reporting is factual and he clearly states where he is giving opinion and how he arrives at it.
You, on the other hand, are spouting emotion (using language like ‘beyond intolerable’).
Your own personal biases are causing you to react strongly, and accuse Mish of doing something he has NEVER advocated for (‘return to full Woke-ness’).
You described the perfect template for a MAGA Trump voter
What a loser you are. Two year olds choosing their sexes? First off, it’s gender, or were you intentionally being an ignoramus for the LOLz? I can only imagine the misguided hatred that stokes your fire every day.
Indeed. Full blown boomer. This guy claims he’s nearly died a bunch of times and instead of being concerned about his health, living his final days in joy or doing anything constructive, he keeps whining about woke and other stupid nonsense. Stinks of MAGA boomer but hides it to play it cool except it comes out as fool.
And they say women aren’t as emotionally stable as men. You’re a drama queen with PMS
biden doubled down on trump policy of tariffs. biden also sent 300billion plus dollars to help ukraine men and women get slaughtered. biden also ran shotgun with Bibi over Gaza genocide and famine. the only noticable difference i can detect with Ds in power is abortion rights. we now see it playing out at the state levels big time. let’s also be honest. obama deported tons of immigrants including children. he just did it quietly. trump and his cult applaud the ugliness of it. trump and maga cult get off on cruelty whether it’s immigrant roundups with masked ICE or in the bombing of school girls in iran. but let’s also be real. epstein operation was a CIA and mossad operation which entrapped and blackmailed many wealthy blue and red team powerful folks. why for decades it was hidden. only one to go to prison in USA was epstein’s madame in the pedophilia blackmail ring.
PS both red and blue are AIPAC. they all give more of a fuck about israel than their own pitiful constituents that keep voting for the pro zionist and pro worldwide warfare and downright idiocracy. see president comacho for exhibit A. see genocide joe for exhibit B.
I will broaden what I have been saying all along: Voting For D’s is voting for Turds and Voting for R’s is voting for pieces of shit. CHOOSE A POISON.
Then, the sad thing, in the recent past, is that people somehow BELIEVED the rhetoric that counts (Reforming Corruption).
AIN’T gonna happen, Folks.
CORRUPTION=POLITICS.🙄
plus democracy works. corrupt assholes will vote and elect corrupt assholes.
there is a big difference between Genocide Joe and Trump.
Joe only genocides Muslims who can’t fight back.
and then when the democrats reap in Minnesota a sliver of what they had sown in Gaza, it is MUDER i tell you, and we all must vote Blue to get it to end.
i think you get it. genocide joe or donald epstein. in a blind test of who was in power past 60 years no one could pass…………..
You’re completely wrong in thinking that Biden was somehow different from Trump.
Trump was so close to Bibi and Israel that they named a settlement in the Golan Heights after Trump.
Trump planned to take Gaza and have Jared make it into a string of luxury resorts.
“Joe only genocides Muslims who can’t fight back.” — Actually, most of the egregious destruction in Gaza has taken place under Trump’s regime.
Vote Blue, you stupid fucks.
We’re only going to murder 3 of your cousins, instead of 9.
Thanks guys, I really appreciate it.
you forgot the bibi slept in Jared’s bed story.
I know many wonderful Muslims. I am well aware of the who’s who of the people who are murdering them.
Yippee, you are spouting straight Russian propaganda, probably influenced by your time helping the oligarchs take over after the Soviet Union collapsed.
Actual disbursed dollars is closer to $130B, over 4.5 years, equivalent to $30B a year.
Most of the military gear is defensive in nature (Javelin shoulder-fired missiles early on, Patriot missiles).
Much of it was old, retired gear (I used to be in a unit in the late 1990s using M113 troop carriers, for example. Those things just carry people around, not a threat to Russia). We also sent them 40 or 50 M1A1 Abrams tanks, which the US Marines retired from their arsenal completely.
We DID send them 20 HIMARS, but those things have a short range and I think we only spared 300 missiles for them. They can’t reach Moscow.
TLDR: The US has ‘sent’ Ukraine way, way less than propaganda says, and it is saving Ukrainian lives.
don’t give a fuck about russia or ukraine or israel…………..i am a citizen of italia and usa. i give a fuck about them. even the red and blue states. the fact is democracy works perfectly. amerikans are asshole imperial warmongers so they elect themselves. see ancient greeks and romans for explanation of why democracy works. very easy. just requires honesty.
So that must be why Ukrainians are press-ganged off the streets and forced into the army. Every Ukrainian talks about it
Happened to people I know, my cleaner’s son among others. They just didn’t know their lives are being saved, see. They really should stop resisting and go to the slaughter.
The Russians Are Coming was a movie from 60 years ago.
Need I remind you that fewer people got shot in the head by government employees under every Democrat
Let us pretend that were true. That’s basically saying to hire Rick as your kids babysitter because he’s molested fewer children than Dick.
Is anyone else noticing a shift in the news promoting the inaccuracy of polls and how much they historically lean Democrat by huge margins?
If this isn’t a setup for stealing the elections I don’t know what is.
Polls don’t ‘steal’ elections. They are guesswork; both sides do them; Fox news produces them, so does the WSJ and assorted outfits on both sides.
There’s a huge industry around polling because we are all fascinated by the political horse races.
Historically polls have had errors in both directions.
Because of how voting works in the US, “stealing the election” in a national vote is next to impossible. There’s always some ugly stuff going on locally with kicking people off the rolls etc, but systematically voting is highly distributed and not something that can just be hacked nationally somehow. There are thousands of different little voting feifdoms all across America.
I believe Tom is saying the narrative that ‘the elections were stolen ‘ is being set up with the ‘polls are historically inaccurate ‘ narrative.
elections are rigged, not stolen. if they were to be stolen, i would suspect the Republicans would be the ones to steal it as rigging an election takes more brain power than stealing one.
Silver’s models are garbage.Trafalgar is solid. Rich Baris Big Data Poll has been spot on for the past 3-4 election cycles. He’s got Ds taking NE KS and trending SC where Miss Ladybug is flailing. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving to the Dems.
“… Rising fuel costs tied to the Iran war are the main driver of inflation ….
Of the nine states where The Wall Street Journal’s election tracker lists this year’s Senate race as a tossup or merely leaning toward one party, seven saw household gasoline costs rise faster this year than the U.S. average: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Texas. …”
https://www.wsj.com/economy/see-the-states-where-high-gas-prices-are-hurting-the-most-61e82cc6
excellent analysis worthy of a 2-star Mishelin award. Would have been 3 star except one thing was left out.
who are the biggest losers?
well thats your everyday American who will get no real help from democants.
I keep saying its Trump turtles all the way down but maybe its “Suckers and losers all the way down and ineptness all the way up.”
Perhaps I’m naive, but I do think there will be a difference between someone like Talarico in the senate or Paxton. The former might support policies you do or don’t like, but the latter will be much more corrupt on top of that. The same reasoning goes for Kansas, and I think South Carolina (although I don’t see that as truly competitive). You could argue the reasoning also holds up in Michigan but with El-Sayed as the less favourable candidate, but I do not know enough about him and his opponent to make the case either way.
Well go on record and tell us what fabulous things democrats are going to do besides impeachment hearings for the next two years.
Saying a barrel of rotten oranges is better than a barrel of apples doesnt help anyone.
I don’t have a list of fabulous things they will do, certainly not while Trump can veto. But I disagree that it is a matter of rotten oranges vs rotten apples. I think Republicans under Trump have done much worse than any governemnt before them, all things considered and I believe that Trump is actively breaking down checks and balances and the way voters can check his power. So having a counter balance to that will be good, in relative terms.
Aside from that I expect democrats in power:
To me it is quite simple: it’s a comparison between a fully rotten barrel of oranges and a barrel of apples that has a lot of bad spot. Given that the system is driving towards having only 2 viable parties, I would opt for the apples that have some spots over the fully rotten oranges.
You may disagree with my assessment and that’s fine. I just don’t think that the two evils are equally evil. And I think that that matters.
Very nice list and you have confirmed you are naive, no offense of course. Democrats will have the power of the purse and can cut funding to the war, ice and whatever else they dont like but I predict they wont do any of it beyond token measures (e.g pass a resolution to stop funding the war but but but we gotta support the troops so money flows).
I will bookmark this and put it on my calendar for follow up 1 year from today, suggest you do the same. We can revisit then and see who was right. I actually hope you are but I have been thru this rodeo for 30+ years now and the bull always gores the fans.
Fair enough, let’s see how things play out. Whether or not I am naive will be clear from whatever happens after the elections. But I’ll own this list and if nothing happens on any of this then I will be disappointed. If that should be due to republican obstruction then I’ll wait and see what happens under a democratic president in a few years.
btw – add releasing the epstein files to my list, or at least more than Trump is releasing.
If you are elected to office and dont reverse the policies of the madman who preceded you, then you own the same policies.
Think of Trump laying the blame for Ukraine at the feet of biden. Trump could’ve ended the war in 24 hours like he promised. Zelensky is a sock puppet. Of course the puppet masters can end the show instantly. But Trump continued it. It is his war and Magatards’ war as much as biden’s and the dimowits.
I did not see this until after my post, my apologies.
the democrats won’t release the Epstein docs, and they had 12 years between the Obama and Biden administration to do so.
are there any democrats that you know of that are running on releasing the Epstein docs? I can Google it suppose.
here is what Debbie Wasserman Schultz says about the Epstein files from her archives:
‘After Biden took office in 2021, Democrats appeared to dial back their public calls for Epstein records’ release.
“Pushes for oversight and record releases were at times tempered by a need to respect both the victims’ pursuit of justice in courts and their fears of reprisals,” Wasserman Schultz told PolitiFact. “As disclosures were denied or delayed, we did what lawmakers do and legislated to protect future victims.”
https://wassermanschultz.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=3412
I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for the democrats to do the right thing here.
The Democrats can pass laws and stop funding the war and Trump can and will veto them. And they don’t have the votes in the Senate to override a veto. The constitution will keep the Democrats from actually doing anything of value.
Trump can’t make money appear without Congressional approval.
He can try to move it from one program to another, but that causes Senate difficulties, like getting his judges or ambassadors approved.
You can’t veto a budget into existence. Democrats will have much more control over the purse than they do now, even if it’s just the ability to not fund things.
Democrats do not want to end the War On Iran. They want to be able to bitch piously while Trump does their dirty work.
See, 2006. Team D swept into Congress on a wave of antiwar sentiment, then proceeded to kvetch from the sidelines while doing nothing to actually end the wars.
Then of course, came 2008, Obama elected, again with a mandate to end the wars. He proceeded to do no such thing but instead gave us new wars.
Give me a break, Obama ended the US combat mission in Iraq and withdrew the vast majority of US troops by the end of his first term. Biden pulled us out of Afghanistan and the Republicans cried crocodile tears about it. You are just endlessly full of shit.
MPO45v2, the corruption is restrained by kicking out the current office-holders and getting new people in there.
Corruption always gets worse in states that vote consistently blue (see Illinois) or red (see Paxton/TX).
>> Afghanistan, Irak, Iran, Venezuela all happened under republican presidents)
Every D or R stages or continues or escalates per MIC instruction.
Biden was a primary promoter for invading Iraq.
Obama didnt end the wars. He did “the surge”.
Iirc, obama dropped more bombs in Afghanistan than Dubya. (And iirc trump dropped even more.)
Obama/biden invaded Libya.
Obama/biden invaded Syria usong “moderate head choppers”.
Obama/Biden couped Ukraine. Began NATO integration, even if not via treaty.
Arab Spring? How closely did you read about that?
After trump, biden reversed NONE of trump’s policies. Kept the hostages in Gitmo. Starved Venezuela via financial blockade, including withholding Citgo revenue that Donald Epstein first stole.
I’m sure I’m forgetting items.
Plus the MIC classifies various deployments. We see only above the water line.
I can’t help but notice you don’t have ‘release the Epstein files’ on your list.
if the dems wanted to really see a blue wave, how about adding that to the things they are going to do?
the ‘apples that have some spots’ are child rapists and/or enablers of child rape.
that is rotten to the core.
the choice is a child rape enabling murderer, or a stupid child rape enabling murderer, up and down the ballot.
I am a fellow sinner, I will be right there voting for the child rapist and murderers with a D by their name, but let’s not white wash this.
Anyway, we are in a fucked up system and we all try to manage this as best we can, so this isn’t a personal attack on you. I understand the reasoning behind what you are saying.
Yes, I realised that after writing the initial post. I’m sure i missed other stuff but i figured it illustrates my point even if it wasnt complete.
I like your analysis Mish. I’m not sure about the exact percentages but i think your rationales make sense. One note on Silver and betting markets: Silver explained somewhere that he does not include them to avoid a feedback loop. If people use his models to inform their bets then it might become a self reinforcing system. At least that is his explanation. What I like about that approach is that it does provide two separate ways of interpreting the data that’s available.
While trying to save his majority in Congress, Trump lied to his supporters during his mad push around the country and disputed the latest BLS report on rising inflation, claiming there is no inflation and defending his illegal tariffs.
“We don’t have inflation and tariffs don’t cause inflation,” Trump spewed. “You know what they cause? Wealth.”
Trump’s denial may work on his most ardent MAGA cult members but not on the country at large.
He didn’t stop there when he praised high oil prices that are strangling the working class and have spiraled upwards because of his war with Iran.
“Our country is making more money than it’s ever made because of the fact that oil is so high,” Trump claimed.
The oil companies thank you, Mr. President.
Plutocracy by the rich, for the rich, from the rich.
I plan on voting straight democrat and I will report back after the election and see if Trump screwed up so bad that even safe republican seats fell on my ballot.
I am curious to see how bad it will be. if it is not a severe loss for the Republicans, we are done as a country as Trump has and keeps threatening to act unconstitutionally.
not to mention the amount of grift, incompetence, and groveling by the republican party that we would be allowing without repercussions.
and one can hope but Trump moped the floor with Kamala after the events of January 6.
the democrat party has its own issues with voters.
I don’t know. paper beats rock and hopefully pocketbook beats coup to the American voter.
Well, if my neighborhood yard signs are any indication, the Republicans are going to commit massive election fraud and win. Because otherwise, they’re going to lose. Based on yard signs. Also, not a single Trump flag anywhere, which means even the 3 Republicans who have Paxton and Abbott signs don’t want Trump on the Texas ballot.
Trump made the Republicans pledge to ‘cheat like hell’ at the convention in Dallas last month.
the funny thing is besides abortion and a few other social issues, nobody on the planet could pass a blind test of who was in power in the us congress or POTUS in the past 6 plus decades, when given what happened regarding spending, taxing, war mongering world wide, policing, prison terms, health care, SS and countless topics. guess what. pro tip. the pax dumbfuckistan world wide mongering empire is a bipartisan project. the vast majority of people seem to keep on voting for the uniparty. nobody will vote for the greens or libertarians. those kooks are running on peace and prosperity. hat tip to the ancient greeks/romans. democracy works in all it’s iterations. always has. always will.
So poignant. Even a cynic has the onboard survival instinct to hallucinate that there is some way to fix it, some way through, some way out, some way this spaghetti can be untangled. Peace and prosperity, indeed. Goodness is achievable, right? Just not by these fools, right?
I think there is no form of governance, even theoretical, in which our species can function wisely enough to avoid mutual-, self-, and environmental immolation. I.e., the flaws in us are inherent, fundamental and not fixable (under current technology, and certainly not the sorts of tech we are building and cooing over and worshipping). No flag or philosophy or rubric fixes it. We will stagger forward into, and through, complexities we are far too dumb on average to process, in each further farcical scherzo of violence and delusion. Just enough of us squeak through each time, to re-seed the irreducibly absurd process, of course generating clever rationalizations (which is our defining trait), until we engineer our way into the next catastrophe. We are building to a big beautiful global whopper right now.
Meanwhile, I want Trump out. I reckon I’ll survive long enough to draw some benefit, even if just satisfaction.
humans can get much dumber than even the film, idiocracy or MAGA corps. after the eastern roman empire fell, the people of europe forgot to take baths even with the roman baths in their towns. they forgot the formula for cement even though they were walking on cement sidewalks and aqueducts carried water for the romans. took the italian renaisance centuries later to lift the idiots out of their stupor.
made a mistake. the western roman empire fell. the eastern roman empire lasted another 1000 years with constantinople as capitol and the currency the byzant lasting 800 years without being debased. in amerikan schools they teach in past century it was byzantines. they were merely the roman empire. perhaps amerika will just bust up. east and west. or 50 states. who knows. we did have a half time break, in 1860s. glad i lived in charleston SC for a decade. a trip to federal ft sumter and study of that situation is vital to understand how fragile the amerikan empire truly is. donald will set up a new white house in Mar A Lago in 2029 is my bet. a few folks have indicated this possibility.
Thumbs-up for the great historical context, but you’re underestimating how much the current Republican politicians actually want to get rid of Trump. His base of power will rapidly diminish once he loses badly in the mid-terms.
Here’s the important point people are missing:
Fox News viewership has collapsed by 30% in the past year as people turn away from Trump and Republican policies.
Trump’s own ‘Truth Social’ daily viewership has collapsed in half!
The US electorate is disgusted with Trump and the Republicans are going to desert him and MAGA in droves.
I have been hearing that for 10 years. I believed it over and over and have been proven wrong over and over.
At this point, I’ll believe it when I see it happen.
How did that work in 2018? Trump took a shellacking after the midterms. For that matter, January 6.
And they forgot all about central heating for 1500 years!
Even though the Romans showed how to do it.
well said.
As Churchill said “Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”
I’ll stick with that until someone offers me something demonstrably better.
Churchill gaslighted us with that line. USA is an oligarchy and we dont even have a House of Lords to rub it in our face like the royals do explicitly in Britain.
Not going to debate the flaws of the US government. There are many. But my point is that the foundation of the US in the rule of law and the Constitution are the best frameworks for government invented yet. The US implementation is very flawed in many ways, but I think the best approach to deal with it would be to fix the flaws and end the corruption vs to go to an alternative form of government.
I stopped agreeing with that some years ago. Judging by the results, China has a better form of government.
China has elections at the local level, where voters might actually know something about candidates. The lower level then nominates and votes on whom to promote to the next level. In this scenario, the voters know the candidates pretty well. Repeat that for anothert 2-3 levels up and you end up with Xi. In 70 years since a revolution and despite all kinds of sabotage (including attempted color revolutions), Chinese serfs live as well as Oceania serfs. And China seems to be pulling ahead. (Ergo Oceania desperation.)
Contrast that with Oceania.
Oceania currently has Donald Trump. Before that, Joe Biden. Two back-to-back octogenarian dementia cases with no 25A in sight. Plus, all the top people are either rapist pedos or defend the same, as accessories before or after the fact.
Oceania can’t help but mass murder across the continent and then across the globe, during its entire existence. A genocide continues for 3 years now, with ethnic cleansing before that. Plus genociding its own continent. Plus slavery, apartheid until the 1960s, and now mere indentured servitude of purposely miseducated youth regardless of color.
Oceania can’t help but treat its serfs like shit, since the focus is always on war.
Despite successfully engineering, coming out on top of ww2, and the hybrid war against the USSR (mortally wounded from ww2, just like the French empire), Oceania squandered its economic gains. Average real earnings for the bottom half are back to 1970. To stay solvent, Oceania simply devalues the currency, imposing costs on its serfs domestically and within its financial colonies.
Oceania government is unable to reach a stable steady state within its own footprint, let alone do good for its serfs. In my book, this is failure.
That’s a polished turd. Yes, democracy can and must be improved. For example, how about broken campaign promises being classified as electoral fraud? How about direct democracy at the lowest levels of government?
I’d be all in on that approach…
“I think there is no form of governance, even theoretical, in which our species can function wisely enough to avoid mutual-, self-, and environmental immolation. I.e., the flaws in us are inherent, fundamental and not fixable (under current technology, and certainly not the sorts of tech we are building and cooing over and worshipping).”
This is why, after some 5,000 years of human existence, humans are still debating the issue. Successful examples of all kinds of human societies can be found, and all eventually fail.
My take is that most systems can be made to work tolerably well, if and to the extent they are run by non-sociopaths. The problem is that sociopaths are attracted to power, and, unlike normies, will do whatever it takes to get it.
The history of the medieval Catholic Church is most instructive here, and this an institution that can trace its founding to Jesus Christ Himself.
Shove the “cynic” and other empty rhetoric back up your ass, peelo.
You voting for D’s is your permission slip for doing nothing but following the jackass in front of you.
>> reckon I’ll survive long enough to draw some benefit, even if just satisfaction.
The oligarchs dont give us want we want. They give us what we tolerate.
Go on then. Lower your “ask” to nearly nothing. You won’t be disappointed or — my garsh — “cynical “.
“Abortion and a few other social issues” are very important to keep the rubes voting for their respective teams.
If you’ve ever been in a room alone with Team R bigwigs, they do NOT want to talk about abortion. In fact, they would probably look at you like you loudly farted, should you bring the issue up.
I just heard on the news that paxton and abbott in Texas refuse to debate their opponents. What are they scared of other than being exposed for their incompetence (I am told).
Is any dinosaur going to bring up that “Nixon won the debate on the radio” thing?
Somebody here who remembers the 1960 election?
Maybe Melvin?
born in 1960. under IKE. my claim to fame was seeing MLK jr at my older brothers college commencement. i also hung out with OJ and his wife. about a year before he was accused and found not guilty of her murder.
I remember it (at 8 yrs old).
Kennedy was charismatic, Nixon was not.
That was about it.
Both ate Abbott and Paxton are far too stupid to debate. All they can do is ride Trump’s coattails to irrelevance.
If the Democrats do flip the Senate I hope to God they don’t have any GOP masquerading as Dems like Manchin and Senema this time
Fetterman is the new Manchin.
they need at least 52 seats to make that a moot point with Fetterman.
52 seats?
Pick any 3 of Fetterman, Kelly, Warner, Coons and Tester, and you got your answer! LOL
ummm, dude, you’re a bit out of date. Tester is out of office.
Coons, Warner and Kelly are moderates but mostly vote Democratic party line. Your boy drumpf and hogsbreath wanted to draw and quarter Kelly for reminding the sworn duty to the military too.
Good luck with all that, keep dreaming that those Democrats will bail out your cult.
Sorry, Tester was doing nothing. So, I thought he was still there!
And save your breath. I have never voted for Trump or any Republican for that matter. But I did vote for 0-bama (once), and it happened only because he is a much better scam artist than Trump.
Well fair enough. As far as Obama and Trump, we share that history identically. could never vote for drumpf and I also shamefully bought into the obama line as well.
https://www.salon.com/2010/02/23/democrats_34/
EXCERPT:
“The primary tactic in this game is Villain Rotation. They always have a handful of Democratic Senators announce that they will be the ones to deviate this time from the ostensible party position and impede success, but the designated Villain constantly shifts, so the Party itself can claim it supports these measures while an always-changing handful of their members invariably prevent it. One minute, it’s Jay Rockefeller as the Prime Villain leading the way in protecting Bush surveillance programs and demanding telecom immunity; the next minute, it’s Dianne Feinstein and Chuck Schumer joining hands and “breaking with their party” to ensure Michael Mukasey’s confirmation as Attorney General; then it’s Big Bad Joe Lieberman single-handedly blocking Medicare expansion; then it’s Blanche Lincoln and Jim Webb joining with Lindsey Graham to support the de-funding of civilian trials for Terrorists; and now that they can’t blame Lieberman or Ben Nelson any longer on health care (since they don’t need 60 votes), Jay Rockefeller voluntarily returns to the Villain Role, stepping up to put an end to the pretend-movement among Senate Democrats to enact the public option via reconciliation.”
Don’t keep your hopes too high. They will get as many “rotating villains” as needed.
How many do you want?
Two? Fetterman and Kelly.
Three? Fetterman, Kelly and Warner.
Four? Fetterman, Kelly, Warner and Coons.
Five? Fetterman, Kelly, Warner, Coons and Tester.
I can keep going 😂
And if they ever need 14 or 15 rotating villains to defeat the filibuster, they can manage that as well. The sky is the limit! 😂
Amazing are the cope skills from the cult. It’s like Force powers, for the brainwashed.
LOL. The “cult” of independents who can think for themselves??!!
He might be referring to the D’s.
That would be me as well. I think where we disagree is that I still think it better to support the opposition against the MAGA cult, even though the opposition is its own cult.
I’ll just say that I think it is pointless to vote for a third party. If you’re going to do that, then just don’t vote. I’ve done that in the past as well (not vote that is), and frankly I don’t like any of those solutions.
There are two cults right now, I am supporting the lesser of two evil cults. I don’t claim to love it, but that’s where we are.
At least Sinema had a big rack.
Imagine the Texas stakes, in Elon’s eyes. He is starting to run Texas corporate law and corporate finance like his own chained dog. It is becoming oligarchy law. Doubtless he plans to lever this into wider influence in those areas. Surely environmental and other law would follow.
” … Elon Musk has reportedly funneled a staggering $158 million through a Republican fundraising group to a Texas super PAC backing Ken Paxton’s Senate campaign.
Teddy Schleifer, a reporter for The New York Times, posted the figures on social media on Thursday. ….”
https://www.mediaite.com/politics/elon-musk-has-gone-all-in-on-ken-paxton-and-the-price-tag-is-stunning/
The Epstein class patting each other’s backs.
backsbuttocks