Who Is Favored to Win the Senate in 6 Different Models

Here are 10 Senate races in 6 models, one of them mine.

Split Ticket Model

Split Ticket: First, we constructed a generic ballot average of registered voters, which was weighted for pollster quality according to VoteHub’s pollster scorecard. Next, we calibrated the microdata from all of The Argument/Verasight’s monthly polls in 2026 to this baseline average and then applied a likely voter screen to the survey microdata.

After doing this, we calculated the swing from the presidential margins at a state, regional, and national level, for each demographic — with each geography’s swing weighted for sample size in the composite aggregate. We then constructed a likely electorate at the district and state level alike and applied this demographic-level swing to that electorate, before adjusting each estimate for incumbency and prior candidate overperformance (using Split Ticket’s Wins Above Replacement scores).

This was then blended with two other components: a statistical model trained on the last four election cycles and polling averages internally computed for each House and Senate race. Finally, we conducted a Monte Carlo simulation, with correlated error terms on demographic, state, and national levels.

Aggregated polls were gathered via VoteHub’s polling API. Polling microdata was taken from monthly The Argument/Verasight surveys. Likely voter screens were created through a mixture of data from the Catalist voter file and self-reported voter enthusiasm

Three Nate Silver Models

Nate Silver FLIPR: FLIPR stands for Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings.

FLIPR is a hat tip to the inherently probabilistic nature of the forecast — we run 40,000 simulations every time the model is updated. It’s not as simple as “flipping coins”, but the simulations are necessary because of the complex relationships between different types of races.

And the FLIPR acronym is also rather descriptive. FLIPR essentially consists of three different layers stacked on top of one another: polls, non-polling leading indicators (e.g., fundraising, incumbency) or what we sometimes call “fundamentals”, and then a final layer of race ratings from longstanding outside expert groups like the Cook Political Report.

Three versions of FLIPR

• Lite derives as much information as possible from polls alone;
• Classic is polls + fundamentals;
• And Deluxe is polls + fundamentals + expert ratings.

While Deluxe is our default version, almost all of the charts and tables on the FLIPR landing page allow you to, uh, flip back and forth between these versions. The way FLIPR is designed, the expert ratings layer is probably the least important — the proverbial “icing on top.” But if you want a forecast without any expert ratings, we have you covered with Lite and Classic.

PolyMarket

Polymarket is a betting market. Odds are set by betters, no more no less.

Nate Silver and SplitTicket ignore the betting markets. I don’t.

Three states stand out on Polymarket vs Nate Silver and SplitTicket. Those states are Iowa, Maine, Kansas. Nate Silver’s Nebrasksa Lite stands out from everything else.

Mish

I look at everything (polls and betting markets) and I factor in where I think the economy inflation and sentiment is headed.

I also look at sentiment, Cook Political, individual poll cross tabs, and momentum.

I weigh recent high quality polls heavily, and toss stale polls much more than Nate Silver.

In the end, it’s just a mental assessment of everything above, but not an average. If I have a reason I will bend towards one of the above models.

I was the first of anyone above to get to a 60 percent then 65 percent chance of Democrats winning the Senate.

But I am reluctant to go much higher than 65 percent because of betting markets on Iowa and Maine.

Yet, the single most likely event is Democrats pick up a net of 6 Senate seats.

My Two Key Assumptions

• Democrats hold Minnesota
• Democrats hold Michigan

My assumptions are not quite a done deal.

I will go with SplitTicket at 75 percent on Michigan and my assessment of 85 percent for Minnesota.

Excluding Michigan and Minnesota provides a convenient starting point for a discussion of eight possible Democrat pickup states. And there are many ways of Democrats winning the Senate without Michigan.

Eight Possible Pickup States

The eight possible Democrat pickup states are Alaska, Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska.

Democrats are ahead in five of those states (Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas) in every model.

To win the Senate, Democrats need to pick up a net of four and North Carolina is a given. The odds are stacked in Democrats favor.

Democrats can win the Senate with modest one to two percent polling errors, and perhaps more, depending on the state.

Alaska Senate

• Nate Silver Deluxe: 63.0
• Nate Silver Classic: 58.6
• Nate Silver Lite: 65.8
• Polymarket: 74.0
• SplitTicket: 67.0
• Mish: 74.0

The betting markets were well ahead of Silver all year and still are vs Silver Classic. I have followed Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign and concluded early on she would win.

I discussed Alaska on September 18 in Can a Democrat Win the Alaska Senate Race?

Yes. It’s what I expect. Let’s discuss why.

To Hell With Politics, Put Alaska First

That is one hell of a slogan. You can watch her video here.

It appears as if Nate Silver’s models view Peltola as a Democrat in a Republican state. I view Peltola as an Alaskan running for Alaska, with a strong message.

I side with Polymarket at 74 percent.

North Carolina Senate

• Nate Silver Deluxe: 95.8
• Nate Silver Classic: 94.1
• Nate Silver Lite: 96.4
• Polymarket: 96.0
• SplitTicket: 95.0
• Mish: 99.0

This is a done deal. Democrat Roy Cooper will win easily.

Republicans abandoned the state and are no longer running ads.

Cook Political commented “Stick a fork in it.”

Ohio Senate

• Nate Silver Deluxe: 72.5
• Nate Silver Classic: 69.6
• Nate Silver Lite: 76.1
• Polymarket: 62.0
• SplitTicket: 66.0
• Mish: 68.0

Democrat Sherrod Brown is running in a Republican state. But Brown is a former US Senator and Ohio has issues (diesel in a farm state, and data centers that are very unpopular).

For discussion, please see my October 10 post The Surprise Issue that May Swing Ohio and Michigan Is Data Centers

Local anger over energy bills and lost farmland hits two key battleground races.

In Ohio, I don’t discount the betting markets entirely, but counting on Ohio acting like a solid red state is now wrong.

Texas Senate

• Nate Silver Deluxe: 71.8
• Nate Silver Classic: 70.1
• Nate Silver Lite: 71.1
• Polymarket: 63.0
• SplitTicket: 72.0
• Mish: 68.9

Interestingly, SplitTicket has the highest odds for Democrat James Talarico at 72 percent.

In contrast, Polymarket is 63 percent. I believe Polymarket betters are counting on Texas acting like Texas. Even still, Polymarket favors Talarico.

Importantly, Talarico has weathered the Republican lie about him being in recovery in Ohio, and also a huge surge of Republican money hoping Paxton can pull this off.

Yet, Paxton has so much garbage it’s hard to understand how he is polling as high as he does.

My 68.9 is an average of Nate Silver Deluxe, Split Ticket, and Polymarket.

On October 11, I noted Trafalgar Group Has Talarico 3.5 Points Ahead in Texas Senate Race

• James Talarico: 47.1 percent
• Ken Paxton: 43.6 percent
• Ted Brown: 1.8 percent
• Undecided: 7.6 pecent

Trafalgar is a Republican pollster with a good track record. I rate that poll highly.

Much will depend on turnout of Hispanics, urban voters, and white rural voters. Sentiment for Paxton is only strong among MAGA.

I expect Hispanics and Independents will carry the day for Talarico.

Maine Senate

• Nate Silver Deluxe: 71.8
• Nate Silver Classic: 68.3
• Nate Silver Lite: 69.6
• Polymarket: 56.0
• SplitTicket: 63.0
• Mish: 58.0

I am strongly influenced by Polymarket and history.

Historically, Republican Sue Collins normally outperforms her polls in elections. And she does not have the corruption baggage of Paxon in Texas. Finally, Democrats have a very weak candidate in Troy Jackson.

The most recent quality poll is Suffolk University at Jackson +2 on October 8-11, released today.

• 49%Troy Jackson (D)
• 47%Susan Collins (R)
• 4% undecided

That’s easily within the margin of error. So, I am an uneasy 58 percent for Jackson.

I do not fault anyone who calls this race a tossup. But I see it as tilt Democrat.

Iowa Senate

• Nate Silver Deluxe: 58.5
• Nate Silver Classic: 54.9
• Nate Silver Lite: 59.0
• Polymarket: 42.0
• SplitTicket: 50.0
• Mish: 52.0

Iowa is the first big divergence between the betting markets (42.0) and Nate Silver Deluxe (58.5). That’s a massive 16.5 percentage point differential.

I asked Nate Silver for an explanation. He did not answer. I wonder if he ever answers anything. I am batting something like zero out of ten responses from Silver.

This is a genuine tossup in my opinion. However, a Marist University Poll out today is encouraging for Democrats.

• Josh Turek (D): 48%
• Ashley Hinson (R): 45%
• Don’t Know: 5%
• Someone Else: 2%

Someone Else may easily be the deciding factor for Turek.

Note that Democrat Rob Strand is +7 over Zach Lahn for Governor. That’s an added bonus that may pull Turek over the line.

Finally, Republicans cannot be excited about what Trump has done to farmers. Many will stay away.

Nebraska Senate

• Nate Silver Deluxe: 30.2
• Nate Silver Classic: 30.5
• Nate Silver Lite: 49.2
• Polymarket: 28.0
• SplitTicket: 28.0
• Mish: 32.0

Nebraska would be a huge upset. I don’t see it and nor does anyone else. However, a roughly one-in-three shot, or even a one-in-four shot is not nothing.

Republicans are spending money defending the state, something no one thought feasible.

This also serves to balance out the one-in-four shot Republicans have in Michigan.

Kansas Senate

• Nate Silver Deluxe: 50.2
• Nate Silver Classic: 48.2
• Nate Silver Lite: 58.9
• Polymarket: 38.0
• SplitTicket: 42.0
• Mish: 52.0

Kansas and Alaska have something very much in common. Both have non-traditional Democrats running.

I discussed Kansas on October 5, in If the Polls Are Correct, Democrats Will Win the Kansas Senate Race

Adam Hamilton [the Democrat] is the senior pastor of the Resurrection, a United Methodist Church, the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States, with multiple locations in the Greater Kansas City area.

Mish’s Four-Point Take

• Hamilton is a popular minister and a moderate.
• Democrats could not possibly have picked a stronger candidate.
• Trump’s policies are extremely unpopular in farm states.
• Marshall is viewed as too supportive of Trump.

Private polling from both parties shows a deadlocked race between Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state Trump carried by 16 points in 2024.

“It’s a perfect storm,” said one senior Senate GOP aide, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race. “The president isn’t making it any better.”

Kansas and Iowa may easily go together. And if that’s Democrats’ direction, we are talking a plus six pickup for Democrats.

And if Iowa and Kansas fall in line, that line is going to straight through the heart of MAGA because Texas will surly follow.

Projected Seats Split Ticket

I agree the single most likely outcome is Democrats 53 for a gain of 6.

For comparison purposes, the Nate Silver Lite average is 53 with Deluxe and Classic at 52 .

SplitTicket’s plus 8 at 10 percent seems too high. Yet that just takes the straight line I discussed plus Nebraska.

The Overall Odds of Winning the Senate

• Nate Silver Deluxe: 74.4
• Nate Silver Classic: 70.6
• Nate Silver Lite: 74.7
• Polymarket: 64.0
• SplitTicket: 65.0
• Mish: 65.0

Until we see more polls on Maine, Iowa, and Kansas, I am holding at 65 percent with the single most likely individual outcome as Democrats winning 6 seats.

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