If not, aid to farmers, more military spending, and the SAVE act are all unlikely. 
What Trump Seeks
According to legislative frameworks advanced by House Republicans, the primary components Trump wants in the $95 billion package include:
- Defense & Military Spending: Trump initially requested a massive $350 billion cash infusion for the Pentagon. The active $95 billion House package scales this to $73 billion earmarked for defense, intelligence, and military operations related to the Iran war.
- Election Overhaul (Save America Act): Trump wants $10 billion designated for election integrity measures. This funding is meant to incentivize states to adopt Trump-backed voting restrictions, including mandatory voter ID to vote and proof of citizenship to register.
- Agriculture Assistance: The proposal includes $12 billion in aid to support struggling American farmers.
Five Percent by September
The betting markets think 5 percent by September 30. But look closely, the Polymarket Contract says “House” not Congress.
Rules
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US House passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The odds of a bill passing Congress are much less.
Election Recess Times
- September Legislative Sprint: Following the August recess, the House returns on August 31 and the Senate returns on September 14. Lawmakers have a limited window to avoid a government shutdown before the September 30 fiscal deadline and address the unresolved reconciliation bill.
- House Recess Schedule: The last scheduled day in session for the House is October 1. House members will be on recess for just over five weeks, returning on November 9—the week following Election Day (November 3, 2026).
- Senate Recess Schedule: The Senate is scheduled to take a state work period from October 5 through November 6, returning to Washington the week after the elections.
If nothing passes by the time the House recesses, it’s highly unlikely to pass Congress.
Trump could call Congress back, but outgoing members may not want to bother.
21 Percent by December 31
This contract has the same flaw because passing the House is insuffient.
After the election there is a better chance, but not a good one if you believe the odds.
Save Act Passage
The odds on Save Act passage are down to 6 percent.
I think all of these odds are about right.
Trump could have gotten something, but something is never good enough for Trump. He always wants more than he can get.
We see that with Iran, Canada, China, Greenland, everywhere. And that is going to be a huge problem for Republicans in the midterm elections.
Trade policy, farm policy, and tariff policy have all gone against Trump, and he can pass no legislation that he wants.
Related Posts
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August 25, 2026: Cook Political Has Iowa Gov. as Lean Democrat. Texas, Iowa Senate Tossups
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August 28, 2026: CEOs Now Fear a Blue Wave, Start Big Donations to Democrats Too
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I can only speak to Maine but Collins’ attack ads on Jackson are hollow in the northern part of the state where I live, in southern Maine she is considered a Trump lapdog
was collins a senator when maine was part of the massachusets bay colony. she always looked like a founding father pilgrim to me. we surveyed some unchartered bays and coves in Maine in the 1980s for the park service.
“According to legislative frameworks advanced by House Republicans, the primary components Trump wants in the $95 billion package include:”
That is a polite way to say Trump wants Congress to pay for his mistakes and poor judgement with money the country does not have.
What a mess.
No, but based upon an election, that still won’t garner enough votes, making it a moot point, and therefore a waste of time!
Yes, but based upon an election that provides enough votes to pass. They will do so immediately, along with a few others as well, that have been hung up by the Democrats.
Both possible, so I listed them and the reasons why. I have a feeling a Yes is much closer than it was only a week ago, and definitely a month ago.
With the successes Trump has had of late, like Iran, Gas, Oil, and what looks like continued success in those and quite possibly more areas, if they stay leaning in the direction they have been, albeit very slowly.
stu is an obvious troll. i forget the other ones online names. jojo or something or other
Not in my lifetime. Trolls are idiots, with little common sense, but big on emotions. I don’t know of any on this blog.
WINNING!!!
“Democracy is too important to be left to the voters!’
-Woodrow Wilson, greatest Democrat of all time. Founding member of the deep state.
It took a while, but the end game is mid term 2026.
It’s a big club and you ain’t in it. If your vote counted, they would not let you do it.
Okay then don’t vote and don’t complain about anything ever again. It would certainly save everyone else a lot of time if you shut up and sat down.
The Republican Party’s Midterm Nightmare Is Taking Shape
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/08/30/republican-party-midterms-trump-01055934
if the past is any indication, only if it contains something for them personally
Will this cause a government shutdown by Oct 1st or has that been dealt with?
Only, if passage increases success with mid-term elections. Otherwise, let “em eat cake.”
I want investigations, pronto. I can’t stand another day of these leering opportunists chewing away so gleefully and shamelessly at the foundations of our system. I’m not saying it was perfect or corruption-free, or even close. But this shameless travesty needs to end.
We will still need sharp pencils for the next caravan of grifters, whatever their party.
Dream on. Nothing is less accountable than those who people the Federal govt. They are honorary members of the Epstein class. Only the whistleblowers are ever punished.
Okay then society will degrade until it happens. This isn’t sustainable and anyone who thinks it’ll work more than five years tops is a goddamn moron.
we are busting up. from the evacuated dozen military bases in most important location for our empire. to the future states effectively seceding from the federal government in the next 3 years. by jan 20, 2029 more than one state will effectively secede. not need to make any big announcements like in 1861. more a wimper like 1898 for spanish empire. the peasants will be happy in much of the states.
Effectively secede how? By continuing to use Federal Reserve Notes for currency? While continuing to accept federal tax dollars and make federal tax payments?
nullifying laws like cannabis and witholding tax payments to DC. many states are donor states to DC imperial warmongering trough. many states are welfare states of DC. i would suspect the donor states might be the first movers. hell CA has nullified many federal laws for the past 30 years. i’m saying nothing really extra ordinary. the USSR bust up was exactly this. the donor states said adios to moscow. i did business in russia in the post 1991 era. it was wonderful.
Yes, donor states and border states like MN, MI and ME.
conjuring up state issued dollars would be simple. states did it in the past. with electronic money it is so easy now. just computer cursor needed. austin or sacramento or albany…….issues US dollars themselves. it was like this in the past. bank issued dollars too. bank of amerika dollars……….this is basic currency markets 101. i learned this in my early 20s at college. nothing really profound at all.
Sure, California pays its weekly bills by issuing Calidollars into the bank accounts of the businesses and citizens it has to pay, then taxes them back. Rinse and repeat.
in the panic of 2008, the state of CA issued currency. they called it PIKS. payment in kinds. only redeemable with the state. we traded PIKS back in the 90s for bankrupted grocery stores……….
I believe I do remember hearing of this in some states or towns at that time. Weren’t redeemable outside the town but they tried to get people to support locally.
Of course society will degrade. However, people of influence and authority will prosper, and they are tbe only ones who matter.
Yes, and only because ignorant Americans will vote their party line no matter what.