If not, aid to farmers, more military spending, and the SAVE act are all unlikely. 
What Trump Seeks
According to legislative frameworks advanced by House Republicans, the primary components Trump wants in the $95 billion package include:
- Defense & Military Spending: Trump initially requested a massive $350 billion cash infusion for the Pentagon. The active $95 billion House package scales this to $73 billion earmarked for defense, intelligence, and military operations related to the Iran war.
- Election Overhaul (Save America Act): Trump wants $10 billion designated for election integrity measures. This funding is meant to incentivize states to adopt Trump-backed voting restrictions, including mandatory voter ID to vote and proof of citizenship to register.
- Agriculture Assistance: The proposal includes $12 billion in aid to support struggling American farmers.
Five Percent by September
The betting markets think 5 percent by September 30. But look closely, the Polymarket Contract says “House” not Congress.
Rules
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US House passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The odds of a bill passing Congress are much less.
Election Recess Times
- September Legislative Sprint: Following the August recess, the House returns on August 31 and the Senate returns on September 14. Lawmakers have a limited window to avoid a government shutdown before the September 30 fiscal deadline and address the unresolved reconciliation bill.
- House Recess Schedule: The last scheduled day in session for the House is October 1. House members will be on recess for just over five weeks, returning on November 9—the week following Election Day (November 3, 2026).
- Senate Recess Schedule: The Senate is scheduled to take a state work period from October 5 through November 6, returning to Washington the week after the elections.
If nothing passes by the time the House recesses, it’s highly unlikely to pass Congress.
Trump could call Congress back, but outgoing members may not want to bother.
21 Percent by December 31
This contract has the same flaw because passing the House is insuffient.
After the election there is a better chance, but not a good one if you believe the odds.
Save Act Passage
The odds on Save Act passage are down to 6 percent.
I think all of these odds are about right.
Trump could have gotten something, but something is never good enough for Trump. He always wants more than he can get.
We see that with Iran, Canada, China, Greenland, everywhere. And that is going to be a huge problem for Republicans in the midterm elections.
Trade policy, farm policy, and tariff policy have all gone against Trump, and he can pass no legislation that he wants.
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Will this cause a government shutdown by Oct 1st or has that been dealt with?
Only, if passage increases success with mid-term elections. Otherwise, let “em eat cake.”
I want investigations, pronto. I can’t stand another day of these leering opportunists chewing away so gleefully and shamelessly at the foundations of our system. I’m not saying it was perfect or corruption-free, or even close. But this shameless travesty needs to end.
We will still need sharp pencils for the next caravan of grifters, whatever their party.
Dream on. Nothing is less accountable than those who people the Federal govt. They are honorary members of the Epstein class. Only the whistleblowers are ever punished.