The betting markets are catching up to my prediction. 
Today, Democrat James Talarico passed Republican Ken Paxton in the Polymarket betting market for Texas Senate Election Winner.
The Republican nominee is Ken Paxton because Trump dumped Senator John Cornyn on a loyalty test for only backing Trump 99 percent of the time.
Republican chances were as high as 82 percent last year and 76 percent this year, now 48 percent.
Texas Senate Kalshi
This sudden shift in the markets directly mirrors a wave of recent polling:
- The Polling Surge: Four separate major polls released in early August show Talarico holding narrow leads within the margin of error. This includes a Fox News poll putting Talarico up 51% to 48%, and a Texas Pulse poll placing him ahead 47% to 43%.
- The Context: This massive tightening happened right after Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in a divisive Republican runoff. The prediction markets are reacting to Paxton’s general election liabilities and Talarico’s massive $68.6 million fundraising haul. [
Even though Kalshi and Polymarket use completely different backend systems, their traders are absorbing the same frantic news cycle, resulting in similar razor-thin margins for a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic Senator since 1988.
A couple weeks ago I had odds of 55-45 for Talarico. The betting markets are catching up to my view.
I still think 55-45 is about right, perhaps 56-44 with the betting markets both nearly the same.
Both markets have Talarico simultaneously ahead for the first time today.
Kalshi Senate Odds
Polymarket Senate Odds
I will go with Polymarket here although the difference is miniscule.
Democrats have too many chances although they did not help themselves in Michigan.
Two Probable Democrat Pickups
Democrats are nearly certain to pickup a seat from Republicans in North Carolina after Trump drove Senator Tillis away. Democrats about 90 percent likely to take North Carolina according to Kalshi. I have North Carolina as safe Democrat.
Trump’s feuding with Maine Senator Sue Collins have hurt her chances. Democrats about 65 percent likely to take Maine according to Kalshi. That’s about right.
What Democrats Need to Do
Assuming Maine and North Carolina are in the bag, a reasonably safe assumption, Democrats need to hold Michigan and pick up two more seats from Texas, Iowa, Ohio, or Alaska.
All four are possible for a massive +6 for Democrats. That would reverse the Senate from 53-47 Republican to 53-47 Democrat.
My expectation is Democrats hold Michigan, and win at least two of Texas, Iowa, Ohio, or Alaska to win the Senate.
In Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst dropped out due to feuding with Trump. She would have been a heavy favorite.
Trump’s inane tariffs and war with Iran have cut agricultural exports to China, raised prices of diesel and fertilizer, and increased the cost of farm implements.
Farmers have no reason to vote for Trump, but they do anyway. My odds of an Iowa shocker for Democrats are 48 percent.
For similar reasons Ohio is going to be close. Kalshi has Ohio at 51 percent for Republicans. Polymarket has Ohio at 52-49 for Democrats.
I see Ohio more like 54-46 for Democrats.
Trump Really Screwed Up Politically
- Trump forced out Tillis, Cornyn, and Ernst.
- His feuding with Collins is likely the end of her.
Those are Senators that on average voted with Trump 90 percent of the time. But Trump wants full loyalty more than he wants to win.
Incessant bragging and lies don’t help. His focus on the ballroom, arch, ornate trimmings, and reflecting pool are all out of touch with what people want to see.
He is again making a mess with deportations. Support from interdependent and Hispanics has plunged.
The Hispanic vote alone might cost Republicans the state of Texas.
Trump Screwed Up Economically
- Tariffs are extremely unpopular.
- His trade wars have raised prices for small businesses and farmers.
- Deportations don’t help farmers.
- The war in Iran has been a disaster.
Looking Ahead
No one knows what is ahead.
But I see no good way out of the mess in Iran. And if there isn’t prices at the pump will stay high.
Housing is a disaster. Those looking to buy a home cannot afford one.
All the while Trump tells people what an amazing job he has done. This is the same mistake Biden made, but worse.
And a rate hike won’t help matters.
The are hike betting markets are 50-50 for September. It will depend on CPI and PCE inflation results.
A stock market plunge, also unknown, might kill any chance of a Trump win. That’s the only thing economically that Trump has going for him.
My 55-45 Democrat Senate call is on belief the path we are on won’t change. If it doesn’t call it 60-40 Democrats take the Senate.
Related Posts
August 9, 2026: Iran Toys with President Trump. Expect that to Continue Though the Election.
The MOU deal is off the table. Trump wants it back but Iran upped demands.
August 10, 2026: Are Hourly Earnings Rising Too Slowly to Cause Inflation?
That’s the claim by two prominent names. I respectfully disagree
August 11, 2026: US Fires on Panama Ship. Result Is Upward Pressure on the Price of Oil
Trump and Iran have blockaded each other. So who’s in control?
For every highly paid experienced boomer that retires, employers can hire 2 younger workers that are paid significantly less. Benefits are lower as well. Sometimes they even show up for work! It takes 2 since when they show up they spend half their day on their social media sites…
Regarding farmers voting for Trump? Most remain loyal, but they do not wear their MAGA hats like they used to and a small percentage are just fed up with Trump over his constant lies and idiotic war.
Interestingly Indias rice crop is projected to be successful despite the government having to subsidize fertilizer imports and distribution costs. This is one measurement of how the world is doing without fertilizers that normally transited through Hormuz.
China continues to refuse to import US corn and Soy products despite Trump making five deals where he claimed to have made major sales to China. China just thumbs their nose at him.
If he wins the dems will get upset when he leans red kind of like fetterman. Representatives need to represent their districts. Actually all people in their district.
Since when are the odds at shell game stands information?
If Democrats can get out the vote in the college towns it will be a huge win for Talarico and that will cost money which they have
We’ve seen these polls before in texas. Unless dems are ahead by 10 in the polls on election day they arent winning anything big in texas. And to be frank, any pro immigration stance anywhere just looks stupid in light of how many citizens have fallen behind. Both parties are pro immigrant in texas. At some point I expect texas to be taken over by a traditionalist that boots out all on temporary visas. The backlash agaisnt both parties is getting worse not better
Due to immigration control and Boomer retirements, job growth has fallen to a crawl and unemployment is at historic lows. And yet, wages are still falling behind inflation. One would expect that in a super tight labor market, which we have, wages would be skyrocketing as employers pay for more & better workers. So the question becomes: why hasn’t Trump’s immigration policies stopped Americans from continuing to fall behind?
Because the immigrants (skilled & unskilled) were never competing with Americans.
That’s an easy one, they are dumb. It explains a lot.
Do worry, Trump, Walrus, GOP, and democrats will find a way to make things even worse.™
Nah, farmers are just in tune with the truly important questions of political economy like gay sex and gun ownership.
And they’re willing to go bankrupt for it. Dumb.
Yes they are! Some of us are scooping up their failed farms and turning them into productive and profitable enterprises.
I keep reading diesel is getting tight. I think you said you had a hedged contract but I’m also sure there is a ‘force majeure’ clause in there that can cause problems.
As we approach the midterms, the odds of a Reichstag fire type of incident in the US increases dramaticaly.
your lips to God’s ears
I’m sure the Trump whisperer Stephen Miller is whispering “emergency, emergency, emergency ….”
The AI minions are combing the statutes and rules, as well as flashy events in the media, for pretexts.
While refreshing given his crooked opponent, I wouldn’t bet the bank on it. After all, morals, ethics and character are no longer in vogue with politics (assuming they once were that is a big assumption). Add politics to social media and you have the major contributors to many of our current ills.
Has America Already Undergone a Soft Breakup?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/09/opinion/america-politics-blue-red-democrats-republicans.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4lA.zbX4.mWCBV4bvxJKH
Trump has made lots of mistakes in large part due to his ego and narcissism. However there may not be a blue wave due to how bad the Dems are. The Iowa farmer may not like Trumps mess but they can see the madness of Mamdani, Omar, AOC and the DSA. So even if their local candidate is a reasonable moderate the also know if the Dems take control it’s back to Somali fraud, open borders and men in girls lockers.
So it’s a case of smacking Trump at the cost of cutting your nose of or voting against the Dem madness at the cost of giving an ego boost to the Narcissist in Chief
the typical iowa farmer is an idiot. and also a welfare queen. they believed the apprentice was an actual documentary and not a BS television show.
Hey now, if you want ethanol in your gas and high fructose corn syrup in your food, you better thank an Iowa farmer.
ha ha. i forgot. they also produce poison they actually have the chutzpah to call food. i live in hudson valley surrounded by farms in same families for 200 and 300 years
No need to thank them, it’s their own survival pork. Over the years ethanol more than tripled farmland values if they wanted to cash out as many did.
i believe it was sarcasm directed at me.
VERY True.
The same type farmers in KS. I call it a “celebration of ignorance” – they are flat happy to be trailer types and not think more than 30 second stretches.
they also reside in south brooklyn. in usa, since the 1950s it’s ok to be ignorant and an idiot. one can survive. not so much in the 1930s or 1800s…….
The system has become an insurer for everyone’s outcomes. A great book on this is When All Else Fails: Government as the Ultimate Risk Manager, by David A. Moss (2004).
Even then, it is poorly executed. Insurance should be prepaid, not suddenly legislated after some foreseeable problem happens. (That was the foundation of Obamacare’s requirement of paying in, when one would foreseeably at some point withdraw value from the system.) This lack of pre-placed funding (if one does insist on payouts later) has damaged our sovereign finances immensely.
thanks. check out all this guys books. in most countries, the men and companies that produce food, energy,housing,weapons and armies…….and jobs in factories……..usually get great tax loopholes and many times outright gov handouts. keeps a kingdom or small or large country away from uprisings. like sun tzu knew. every country is 9 meals away from a revolution.
https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=0ca1614a8e79126c&sxsrf=APpeQnvKnXJMMRcp3a_-o2TOSVtxITrN6A:1786563200146&q=Tax-Free+Wealth&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgFuLRT9c3zEguqLRIK69UAvOMknLTqkrSc7WkspOt9JPy87P1E0tLMvKLrEDsYoX8vJzKRaz8IYkVum5FqakK4amJOSUZAIC-AP9MAAAA&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=2ahUKEwicgKfH6puWAxWoMlkFHbZ4MK0QgOQBegQIMxAG&biw=1966&bih=753&dpr=1.75
So true, I watch Ag Day every morning and none of the farmers or commentators ever denies that the entire industry is dependent on annual handouts from Uncle Sam. It is part of their DNA
aye aye. most countries in world history do the same. no food, we have a revolution.
Is the dsa a thing sure in a few big cities. . But not near a threat as the far right. If republicans polices helped the American people with jobs the dsa would disappear. Instead the republican party needs a threat to say you better vote for us.
Another tattic is to make all these far left culture war issues main stream to pull the dems to the left instead of closer to the middle where most of the dems reps stand.
There are like 20 DSA members and hundreds of non-DSA democrats, it’s not an issue. Somali fraud was happening in one state, and shut-down as soon as it was found. Harris put a bill before the house and senate to stop open borders, but Republicans shot it down after Trump complained it would end his biggest campaign issue. And “men in girls lockers” was never and issue to begin with. Fox News is ruining this country by making idiots think minor issues are somehow important so they vote for billionaires, massive debt and war.
All Democrats have to do is run on an American sovereignty platform. The Israel fatigue is through the roof.
They’ll have to get a waiver from their AIPAC sponsors to do that. That won’t happen.
Team D can run on whatever platform. Once they get elected, AIPAC will snap the leash and Team D will come to heel.
that is how it works. aipac stays out of primaries. you nailed it FF
AIPAC stays out of primaries? They spent millions to torpedo Thomas Massie. Here in MN the democrat primary to be the candidate for US Senate was between Congresswoman Angie Craig and Lt Governor Peggy Flanagan. Craig had millions spent on her behalf by AIPAC. Thankfully Flanagan crushed “AIPAC Angie”.
Israel fatigue is real. It’s also rarely voiced publicly because people are afraid of retribution by Zionists.
It will be interesting to see how Flanagan v Tafoya plays out.
you are correct. CSPAN was discussing the amount aipac spends on primary v general and saying it was a rounding error. but i don’t know. i have been actively protesting Zionism supported by USA for many decades. at columbia university 2 years ago and on brooklyn street protests. and at columbia u. in the 1980s when everyone loved Zionism. we were young grad students and nobody gave a fuck.
A Trojan horse, like Fetterman.
Just like Obama did
Obama did more to neuter the antiwar movement than Dick Cheney could have ever done, even if he were made Generalissimo And Maximum Leader For Life.
Yup, that’s all they need to do.
Can Texas manage not to elect a lazy eyed pedophile? Find out this November!
Talefreako is a kid toucher, so looks like either way is win-win for Texas
And your poof of this is where? Oh wait, you’re the other guy defending nazis and pedophiles. That makes a lot more sense!
cry harder
Lie harder.
C’mon Joe where’s the tough guy act? Show everyone you’re not a retard. Should be easy for you!
That is shallow TOTALLY BS attack crap.
Stick to your own scum bags PROVEN FELLONY LIST. AND STILL COUNTING…, ask his ex,; or his adulteress.
Yeah OK…you’re probably trans too…I get it, you’re brain damaged…no need to get upset
Gotta push hide button on this attention-wasting troll.
I first learned about talarico from the Joe Rogan interview, and was very inpressed. That was last october I think. America could do a lot worse.
For a god bothered, he seems fairly sane.
“Farmers have no reason to vote for Trump, but they do anyway.”
In recent history, I think fear and loathing of cartoon urban nonwhite communist, wrong-religion or no-religion hordes, could be easily roused, against more complex, fragmented, less mentally salient political-economic arguments. I thought the average Texan voter would, similarly, in the moment of ballot box truth, revert to deeply ingrained thoughts like that.
That’s easier to pull off when the economy is 1) putting up pretty good headline numbers, or 2) being reconsidered, as someone like Biden winds down.
But all that expectation was before the avalanche of everyday “in your face” economic factors Mish listed here. Then it becomes perhaps easier to reframe trouble, and who the troublemakers and bad guys to fear, are.
A flip of both Houses would make some interesting history!
At this point it’s becoming impossible to ignore that America is in a deep crisis either way. We have single states trying to set national (or in Texas’ attempts to govern the internet world) policy over others, an economy that makes no sense, and rule of law that is fleeting at best.
Even if Democrats do win in November, it is time to ask how we even begin to rebuild out of this pit. I don’t see it ending without significant fundamental changes to government and economy. We are disgusting right now.
Keep in mind that Team D is just as in the tank for Israel, and they like it when Trump does their dirty work.
From Talerico’s campaign website:
Take urgent action to support peace in the Middle East: Protect innocent life by stopping offensive weapons sales to the Netanyahu government while supporting defensive systems like the Iron Dome alongside agreements that American funds will not be used to harm civilians; use all of America’s financial and diplomatic leverage to secure a two-state solution that disarms Hamas, establishes a democratic Palestinian state, halts Israel’s illegal settlements, and respects the sovereignty of both nations; and promote long-term regional cooperation to defend American interests against adversaries like Iran.
Talerico does not accept money from AIPAC.
You can tell this is not a serious policy change by the words “the Netanyahu government”, which is an attempt to sneakily continue business as usual with Israel once Netanyahu is defeated in the upcoming Israeli election. If he is voted out, his successor will be even more fascistic than he is. Netanyahu is a moderate in Israel, and he is being attacked by his political opponents for being too soft and gentle in his genocide, war crimes, and daily killing of civilians.
The “two-state solution” language is the same rhetoric used for decades, but Israel is (and probably always has been) dead-set against it. The question is are any of these politicians actually going to stand up to Israel?
You might be correct. Talerico and all the others might also be as duplicitous as Trump. If you believe that there is no reason to bother voting. I think it is significant that he refused AIPAC money.
The zionist are quite prepared to create funding conduits that are zionist front organizations. And the Iron Dome system (to the extent that it works) encourages offensive actions.
The Iron Dome was not built to take out drones. The Israelis are wasting US taxpayer money shooting down tiny drones a million dollars a pop.
New wave Democrats will dump Israel because it’s a practical choice, no need for more reasoning than that even if it is ample. Despite Adolf Joe’s whines and cries about me being Jewish, I’ll gladly point out that Israel is part of what rightly got Joe and his pantsuited bitch slapped in 2024. Their voters (and anyone with a semblance of morality) hate Israel, including American Jews tired of being blamed for the behavior American Dems and Repubs both enabled with blank checks of voter money to a foreign country because of Jebus thumpers and Neolibs combining forces.
All Clinton era neolibs needed to be out of office pre-2024 and hopefully will be mostly pushed out by 2028 by the anti-AIPAC faction.
These newly-minted anti-zionist jews should have spoken up decades ago. They are like the blacks that you now see starting to call out unruly black behavior in restaurants, airplanes and cruise ships. Any outsider that did what they’re now doing would be called anti-semites and racists, respectfully. Things have gotten so out of control that no one cares about being called these names anymore.
They did, you just never heard them Grandpa. Oh so concerned and aware, but somehow not aware American Orthodox think Israel is an affront to biblical prophecy. Hmmm, and those respectable blacks. Couldn’t be the black president the GOP was calling a monkey could it? Or the MLK they now pretend they didn’t call a six letter word back when you were a kid? Lots of things missing from Grandpa’s memory today huh?
Democrats love them that sweet AIPAC cash.
It any more. Netanyahu has destroyed that.
What are you talking about? AIPAC notched up another win in Wisconsin.
israel won’t make it to their 100th birthday. they are a bitch colony and useful idiot of the amerikan empire. when we go broke we will retreat and let them go. the numbers of israelis leaving this year is off the charts. go long r/e in brooklyn and miami. i have many jew friends and family that despise zion.
Yer either on the bus or off the bus, kid.
But not taking AIPAC money isn’t enough either now so… why vote then? Just keep letting the billionares rape your kids I guess.
Because you get a choice of carefully curated imperialist muppets.
Voting is like those child car safety seats that have a steering wheel so that the little tyke can think he is driving.
Team D likes disguising AIPAC contributions, while piously claiming not to accept AIPAC contributions.
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/aipac-connie-chan-san-francisco-primary?utm_source=publication-search
We’re voting the AIPACS out. I voted one out today in the primary.
Team D is less in the tank for Israel as Oleg points out (from Talerico’s website). In the House, 210D’s and only 4 R’s joined forces pass a non-binding resolution to end the war on Iran. It was killed in the senate 49-47, with Susan Collins being the only Republican in favor of the resolution and John Fetterman being the only Democrat against it.
Admittedly, many dems only oppose Israel when it doesn’t matter, but they’re not “just as in the tank”.
Just more soothing rhetoric.
Keep in mind that Creamer is very semetic
That’s as good as you’ve got now? Calling random people Jews? Isn’t the /pol/ act tired Joe? Why don’t you go back there where your (Argentinian) kind is wanted.
Who said anything about “da Jews”…not me. You’re clearly just another self-hating white.
Who hurt you?
You did Joe, it’s the only line you can seem to come up with. Now I’m a self hating white. All I see is a mental midget grasping at the straws he’s too short to reach.
I recently saw a you tube where AI was asked to pick between all major and some minor possible candidates for the 2028 presidential election. 7or 6 out of 8 AIs picked Josh Shapiro, the current D governor of PA. He is deep into support for Israel. As a progressive left person I could not vote for Shapiro, maybe I’d write in MISH.
Sure, Mish is the definitive candidate for progressives! LOL
Actually, we have cities determining what will be the norm for all. If there is civil war, the cities will not prevail. They will soon be starved of food, water, transportation and power by a determined foe. Look at the map of blue and red counties. I certainly do not want this. I live in a city and certainly enjoy all the comforts therein. I do not condone Texas’ move to control the direction of this nation for all. But, I also do not condone the cities of the country doing exactly the same. We are a Constitutional Republic for a reason and not a democracy. Our Republic yields power to minorities to insure unity. I am, incidentally, an old school liberal and hope that some wisdom can be mustered to unite us all for the future after this dreadful administration is hopefully unseated.
Ruralites won’t do shit when they’re outnumbered ten to one. They tried this the last civil war with the same exact logic, it got them steamrolled by the people with industry and population. Cotton can’t fight and, as polling shows, not even their own population is that interested. Go ahead and look at polls minus geezers too old to fight, you’re left with 20% of the population or so, less if you count only men. How many of them feel like dying for this? How many will travel to die for it?
Also, you should try to put together that a constitutional Republic IS a democracy before you tell people what you are and what you aren’t.
What, are rural folks going to putting IEDs on I-10 to stop the food trucks getting into Dallas? Really? And what would they actually expect to accomplish? Making sure they don’t have gay sex? An abortion? All personal choices. How does their life get better?
A change of guard is merely a change of hobbyhorses: Iran or Russia, Wall St. or Walmart, etc.
Trump WH Hatches Secret Plan To ‘Cover Up’ ‘Mountain Of Crimes’ If Dems Win Midterms
They already know they’re going to lose. All they can do now is try to control the damage.
https://zeteo.com/p/can-dems-stop-trump-from-epically
Luckily we have a pretty vigorous free press that has been digging stuff up. I have no trouble seeing more than ample grounds for impeachment. But yeah, there may be mountains we haven’t heard of.
Another question is what posts or other participants or activities might (along with the president, per SCOTUS’s recent ruling), be sheltered from criminal prosecution. Again, I have no problem immediately summoning to mind dozens of names. They will scream “lawfare” to the high heavens, but (as a onetime criminal and constitutional trial and appellate attorney, and history buff), I have never seen such a deluge of illegality connected to government. The law of governmental immunity will get a thorough working over.
Free press? That’s a good one!
Free to espouse the views of their shareholders.
Zeteo.com…you can’t be serious