At long last, Cook Political is where everyone else was four or five months ago.
GOP on Track to Lose House Majority
On September 25, 2026, Cook Political drummed up the courage to admit GOP on Track to Lose House Majority as 15 Race Ratings Shift Towards Dems
Despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November.
Unlike in 2018, the last midterm cycle when Republicans were in power, the most competitive House races are almost entirely in districts that President Donald Trump won. But, in large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts.
Democrats currently hold 215 seats, meaning they need to gain just three seats to take back the majority. But the realm of competitive and potentially competitive districts is fairly small. The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats pick up five to 15 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 220 to 230 seats in 2027 — a fairly slim majority in modern U.S. history.
The political environment has solidified over the past few months, and new polling and ad spending warrants ratings changes in 15 races, all in Democrats’ favor. After these ratings changes, Democrats are favored in 208 races (those rated Solid, Likely, and Lean Democrat) and Republicans are favored in 205 races.
We’re just under six weeks out from the election, and our ratings will continue to change as we have more polling data and see the result of television advertising that only started in earnest this month.
In some districts rated Lean Republican or Likely Republican, polling shows races that are tied but also have a significant share of undecided voters. The undecided voters in those districts — which generally voted for Trump by double-digit margins in 2024 — would typically favor Republicans, and GOP operatives are holding out hope that they will turn out this November. But if, a month from now, Republicans’ numbers haven’t shifted, Democrats may be able to push even deeper into redder territory and further expand their majority.
At the same time, several Republican incumbents who sit in Toss Up seats could move into the Lean Democrat category, as it becomes clear which ones are likely to be swept out by a wave, and which ones have a better chance at surviving.
Timely Report Not
Well thank you for that timely report to all the way to lean Democrat.
Or is that just a tilt?
Polymarket and Kalshi
Nate Silver Odds and Seat Projection
Nate Silver House Projection Model
Nate Silver’s Deluxe model projects 237 seats. That is higher than Cook Political’ s 230 projection assuming Democrats win every tossup.
Silver Odds of Democrat Sweep
- Deluxe: 68.6 percent
- Classic: 65.9 percent
- Lite: 70.1 percent
Unfortunately, Cook political does not give odds.
However, judging from their commentary, I think they are in the 60 percent range for the House while the betting markets and Silver are above 60 percent for the whole enchilada.
Which Party Will Control Congress
I am reluctant to go much over 65 percent so that is about right by my estimate.
Kalshi is at 62 percent.
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September 23, 2026: Hello MAGA, Let’s Discuss Trump Costing Republicans Six Senate Seats
Stop pretending. Abandon ship.
September 25, 2026: Consumer Sentiment Drops in September to Just Above Record Lows
Republican attitudes decline the most, but from higher levels.
September 25, 2026: Texas Cattle Assn. Complains of ICE, Iowa Farmers Union Endorses Democrats
“ICE operations are having a massive chilling effect.”
IDK 🤷♂️ I still remain skeptical 🤨 about the coming blue wave 🌊🔵. I see Eloon 👽🚀 making the rounds now that election time is coming around 🗳️⏳. Might he use those “space lasers” 🛰️🔫 he texted his baby mother about 📱👶, to flip the bits 💾🔁, and keep these worms in office 🪱🏛️? 😬😵💫
Mamdani says that Democrat Socialism “translates nationwide.” Last i heard, the California wealth tax proposition is polling in the positive, by a few percentage points.
https://www.fitsnews.com/2026/09/26/gop-poll-shocker-darline-graham-nordone-in-serious-trouble/
mish. this is a great website for good news in world. look at AI pricing compared to other break throughs. https://substack.com/inbox/post/217407812?utm_source=email&redirect=app-store-no-desktop&inbox=true&utm_campaign=email-read-in-app&triedRedirect=true
I said months ago they were going to win the House. It’s OBVIOUS.
Polling has become a playground for grifters, liars, and frauds: I’m a pollster and this is getting ridiculous. https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/polling-has-become-a-playground-for
Everyone make it through the classic Nor’easter ok?
I got beautiful weather over here.
Same here … fall colors just starting and the winter birds are showing up.
when i was a young fella, we surfed and sailed in them, off long island north and south shores and nyc harbor. dumbfuckery at it’s finest.
After going to the grocery store, past 27 gas stations and the home center (aka HD, Menards, Lowes), there’s a 0% chance the party in charge remains in charge. Of course the D’s have absolutely NO policy platform to correct that but angry mobs are angry for a reason and the coach always gets fired not the fans. Lots of things have changed for the better but inflation hits everyone–smashes the regular folks and enriches the already-gentrified-monied-class, the latter still bitching about the inflation all the way to the ballot box and bank.
Maybe the House can ask themselves what do they do in their 2 year cycle. If we built houses as fast as they even attempt to pass legislation or a budget we would have 1 permit application in Pocatello ID being argued in front of their city council, never to be finished and already well over budget. Of course given their track record that’s probably better than the alternative but the bond market is now the forcing function here.
we go to same grocery store every 2 weeks. buy the same high quality food, with little variation. yesterday we hit the jackpot. 700 usd. senior discount made it 630 kosher shekels. huge increase from a year ago.
Good god.. what do you EAT? I buy good stuff too, but get out for $125 per two weeks for one.
sounds like you live alone. and not in expensive area of a city.
Speaking of groceries, these MAGA voters regret losing SNAP and medicaid. Lol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFChtW07ieo
You reap what you sow, suckers and losers. And it will be 10x worse in 2030.
the employee class of fools who voted for donald, will enjoy their suffering and losing. as the greatest trader of our generation sums up i’m paraphrasing, “losers in life and markets, seem to like to lose, so by losing, they win”. i figured this out at nyc horse racetracks as a teen watching old men lose all their paychecks from miserable jobs they hated. i just did NOT know what ed seykota knew. glad i discovered him as a young trader in the olden days of the last century
Crab people. They can’t climb, so they drag everyone else down.
This is the primary motivation of MAGA: Life should suck for everyone that isn’t super wealthy.
don’t live near anyone that dumb. at least i don’t think. i do know plenty of MAGA towns where family resides. i suspect you are correct. it’s some twisted sort of dumb fuckery cult ambition in life. born on 3rd base(all of USA) and think they are poor.
Am I the only one misreading it as “Crook Political”?
red or blue team in power in congress won’t make a difference, of course. it’s a uniparty warmongering democracy. CUBA WILL BE A NEW STATE OF TRUMPLANDIA, Rubio wants to be King and Bessent will be his Queen. Sorry for the cheap LOL
The “Terror Cells” in Europe are US Bases.
“Terror Cells” CIA/MOSSAD/MI6
mish, i love how your analysis is so deep and wide. and i agree for many decades now, that politics is economics. why i listen to CSPAN instead of CNBC. the politicians have power over trillions and billions including warfare. CEOs are mostly just obsessed with their little and large companies. again, good job with the political handicapping and your libertarian perspective on war, spending and politics. hat tip to you.
The oligarchs have the power. The government works for them.
WRONG. the oligarchs rule because the people love it. democracy works. plenty of democracies on planet earth that do NOT have oligarchs. sorry old sport, on this you are incorrect. democracy works. oligarchs or prostitutes. A to Z. the greeks were correct. the people will get themselves and what they want.
I know of no “democracy” that does not have oligarchs.
plenty of them in europe, canada, oz and nz and japan……….sure there are rich folks and companies. but they don’t suck all the money up from the peasants. they have basic near free(everyone pays in reality) college, healthcare etc……….in usa the peasants pay up to the trillionaires and billionaires…….and wonder aimlessly fighting each other and littering the cities with meth heads and other throw aways of our empire……..
The Bill of Rights is anti democratic. The U.S. is a republic, not a democracy.
pro tip. a republic is a form of democracy. good lord, you sound like a sophomore in HS
I wonder if the diluting of districts in states with gerrymandering is gonna come back to haunt the republicans. I would think when gerrymandering they have no way to separate independents from the magas are regular r s
in 1980s, as a computer cartographer and GIS professional, i worked for NYS task force for gerrymandering. it’s only an art. not a science.
Well what if you had the voter rolls from every state. Passed that info to your preferred party. Could run the data through say fb / X and other sites to see what you follow on social media. All processed by ai.
Don’t forget location data. Abortion clinic? Gay bathhouse? Country and western bar frequented by law enforcement types? In Means of Control, Byron Tau mapped the history and yes, it is that granular already, and available to government, often by purchasing commercial data. GPS can tell which side of the bed you sleep on (or on the couch). Inferences from there are increasingly automated. Something like FB just makes it ridiculously easy.
you think if someone sleeps on the couch will influence the party they vote for ? a few simple metrics can give good odds on voter preference. of course at the federal level voting it really doesn’t make much difference as it is a uniparty of imperialist warmongering debtors…… at state and local level it does make a huge difference. which state and county one lives in is tremendously important in how GOV affects one’s lives. at the federal level not so much anymore.
so what. you think gerrymandering did NOT work it’s magic in the 1980s and 1920s ? only in 2026 with AI. ffs old sport.
The Democrats keep campaigning on affordability , yet if they do take congress it will be 2 years of impeachments , investigations . Nothing will be about affordability , just more of the same from them
What exactly are they supposed to do with the executive office being filled by king retard? Trump will continue to own every loss of his admin while Dems will net popular wins restraining ICE and sacking shitbirds like Hegseth. The play for them is a slow roll into an almost guaranteed presidential election.
And this is assuming Trump doesn’t do something that finally gets what’s left of his party to throw him under the bus. If I were a GOP congressman in anything close to a competitive seat, I’d be looking for a way off the Trumptanic ASAP.
Well i think you have to contain trump and follow corruption. I would like to see the dems destroy the republican party.
Imo to do this they need to come to the middle. Provide common sense governance. Address the epstien files/ put laws in place for /balanced budget immigration/ campaign finance reform / address gerrymandering etc.
put it all before trump and whats left of the republican in congress. When trump vetos republican politician talk smack along with conservative radio/ fox news. maybe the average voter will see the light they have been getting duped.
Sounds like the republican party is focusing on shoring up solid r districts. Cant let the base see the cracks in the red grip. They might like what they see.
So you’re not in favor of accountability. Noted.
That’s for grownups.
Impeachment, conviction and removal should be job #1 on January 3rd. While we’re at it, arrest Hegseth and all the war mongering fools that have lead us to this sorry state.
Any one convicted would be pardoned by trump. Im sure he will blanket pardon family unless he dies before out.
Would not be surprised if he pardoned the pedos also.
Trump pardoning people is a win. It further destroys his legacy. The narcissistic King Fecals, who fancied himself King Midas, turned everything he touched to fool’s gold that smelled like shit, allowed his family and his cronies to enrich themselves using insider information and violate the Constitution with illegal wars, etc., and when the People tried to hold them accountable, King Fecals pardoned them. Disgraceful. I know it is over 2 years away, but I can already see Trump departing D.C. in January 2029 before his replacement arrives for a visit prior to taking the oath of office.
Yeah but it entrenches the graft in government even more. Trump open crimes will lead to to more people like george santos. Rob a bank you get 20 years.
Trump pardon of jan 6th sends a different message.
He did that last time.
correct. Biden is now precedent. not to mention bush and obama war crimes.
I’ve already said here, the Dems need to realize an important political plurality don’t care as much about revenge as about the plan going forward. but the matter of fixing things does along the line include the planet seeing a lot of Trump follies redressed publicly, and firmly with genuine harsh consequences. That’s the only way we can regain international trust.
That’s absolutely fine with me. That clown car of thieving idols needs to go to jail for long enough to set an example/
I wouldn’t count my chickens before they hatch as it is still early in the game.
Outgoing Texas Sen. John Cornyn told CNN’s Manu Raju that he won’t fundraise for Ken Paxton, who was endorsed by Trump and then lost the primary to the former AG, saying Paxton is a flawed candidate and that this is how some majority parties become minorities.
Wow.
I never underestimate reactionary tendencies.
Talarico suffers double poll blow as Texas undecided voters decide
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/talarico-suffers-double-poll-blow-134456620.html
The hardcore Neocon Republicans in Texas (Cornyn, the Bushes) will probably vote for Talarico. Their 1st allegiance is to Israel. That Talarico will genuflect to Bibi (regardless of what he professes in the campaign) is indicated by Mariam Adelson contributing to his campaign.
Paxton should accept the debate challenge.
Trump is a proven neocon more so than Cornyn
Mish, I think Trump is a proven *narcissist* more so than Cornyn and will take whatever position garners the biggest reflection of his image in the pond (so to speak)
epstein videos are the reason.
I wouldn’t disagree with that except to say the Trump pretended to be something else to get elected.
Interesting to have 5 dislikes, but no one pointing to anything I said that was false.
Ken Paxton will win Texas easily because Texas is a state of low IQ racist cretins. I have lived here for 40 years and anyone with any sense hates Ted Cruz yet he still gets re-elected easily. Paxton is even worse but they love him as one of their own. Most white Texans are Christian fascists dedicated to the cult of the Chief Pedophile of the United States.