By political affiliation, sentiment declines the most for independents.
Please consider the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary October report, released today.
Preliminary Results for October 2026
| Oct | Sep | Oct | M-M | Y-Y | |
| 2026 | 2026 | 2025 | Change | Change | |
| Index of Consumer Sentiment | 46.3 | 48.1 | 53.6 | -3.7% | -13.6% |
| Current Economic Conditions | 44.7 | 50.9 | 58.6 | -12.2% | -23.7% |
| Index of Consumer Expectations | 47.3 | 46.3 | 50.3 | +2.2% | -6.0% |
Sentiment Key Points
- Consumer sentiment 46.3 down from 48.1
- Current conditions 44.7 a new record low down from 50.9
- Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year.
Inflation Outlook
- Year ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7 percent, up 0.1 percentage points
- Long-run inflation expectations also stepped up from 3.4% in September to 3.5%, notably higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%.
- Inflation expectations over both time horizons increased for the second straight month to their highest readings since May.
Current Conditions vs Expectations
Sentiment Never Recovered After Covid
- 6-Year High Pre-Covid: 121.2
- 6-Year Low Pre-Covid: 100.8
- 6-Year High Post-Covid: 97.2
- 6-Year Low Post-Covid: 44.7
Notably, the 6-Year pre-Covid low is higher than the 6-Year post-Covid high.
The same is true with the three-month moving average of the overall index.
Inflation Expectations
One-Year and 5-Year Inflation Expectations
- One-Year: 4.7 percent
- Five-year: 3.5 percent
Partisan Sentiment Changes Since January 2026
- -23 percent for Independents
- -14 percent for Republicans
- -9 percent for Democrats
Republicans and Independents expected more out of Trump and did not get it. This is a reflection on the war in Iran, tariffs, and inflation.
Related Posts
September 22, 2026: Republican Politicians Distance Themselves from Trump. Sorry, Too Late
Even in deep red states, republicans stand up to Trump.
October 8, 2026: The Only Hope for Republicans in the Midterms Is a Huge Polling Error
Early voting has started. Most minds are made up. It’s too late for major change.
October 6, 2026: Cook Political “Senate Majority is Squarely in Democrats’ Sights”
Cook Political shifts 3 Senate ratings towards Democrats.
When the Cook Political base case is Democrats +2 in the Senate, you know it looks bad for Republicans.
How bad is the only real question at this point.
Midterms are 24 days away and Trump/GOP own this economy. The tariff play didn’t work out and all it did was cause inflation. The Iran war didn’t work out and that led to more inflation. All of this is 100% Trump & GOP clowns.
24 days.
Sentiment, indeed.
” … the IMF chief warned, governments that have to pay bigger interest bills will struggle to afford other things, like helping their citizens with the high cost of living. ‘We should prepare for people being more unhappy,’ she concluded. ‘Maybe on the street.’ …”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/rich-countries-now-front-lines-110000008.html
EVERYONE GO INQUIRE OF FINVIZ “WHERE IS THE MISH FEED THAT IS SET TO SHOW BUT IS NOT”?
https://finviz.com/contact
FISHY!
Yes, you may mambo dogface to the banana patch. Just wear a sweater, dear.
WTH is this about? Never mind. PASS!
Ironically, I train Ai in FINANCE, but had to use it to figure out what your meant. Caught a lot of ’70’s (E.g. Peter Sellers et al), and on humor, but hadn’t seen this:
This quote is a mashup of classic, absurdist comedy bits from legendary comedian Steve Martin. The phrase itself is intentionally nonsense and has no literal meaning. [1, 2]
The quote combines two of his famous jokes from his 1970s stand-up routine, which also appeared on his Grammy-winning comedy albums like Let’s Get Small and A Wild and Crazy Guy: [1, 2]
When put together, the phrase is a nostalgic joke used by fans of classic 1970s alternative comedy. [1]”
Coming out of High School and workign at a record store I was not easily a fan of Steve Martin. Why? His ‘Walk like an Egiptian” record was one of the first 2 to take record prices (from hiked royalties) up 2 bucks when the $5 price point had been sacred. There you have it.
Turns out Zero Hedge is from “This phone number is a fixed landline originating from Sofia, Bulgaria.”
Consistent with the Russian background Durden has.
Here you have it “Zero Hedge’s in-house content is authored by its owner Daniel Ivandjiiski under the pen name “Tyler Durden“.
Way to call the markets from Bulgaria you RUSSIAN ASSET!
“Daniel Ivandjiiski is a Bulgarian-born, U.S.-based former investment banker, trader, and financial blogger best known as the founder, publisher, and main editor of the controversial financial website Zero Hedge. [1]
Career & Zero Hedge
Wall Street: He previously worked as an investment banker and capital-markets analyst on Wall Street. [1, 2]FINRA Bar: In September 2008, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) barred him from the securities industry for insider trading.Zero Hedge Launch: Following his ban, he founded Zero Hedge in January 2009. The site became highly popular for its deeply bearish, anti-establishment, and macroeconomic commentary. [1, 2, 3]The “Tyler Durden” Persona
For years, all content on Zero Hedge was published anonymously under the collective pseudonym “Tyler Durden” (a character from the book and movie Fight Club). [1, 2]
In April 2016, former Zero Hedge writer Colin Lokey unmasked the operation to Bloomberg, revealing that Ivandjiiski, along with strategist Tim Backshall and Lokey himself, were the main individuals writing under the Durden persona. Ivandjiiski remains the primary operator of the platform. [1, 2, 3]
Bulgaria or anywhere in europe is not the safest location for a “Russian asset” blogger. I would expect to end up unpersoned like Col Jacques Baud.
I am on Finviz
right side
https://finviz.com/news
These darned people just don’t realize how good they have it!
Whats the problem? Everyone is rich!
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/10/the-rich-are-getting-richer-so-is-everyone-else/
“Consumer Sentiment Current Conditions Index Drop to Record Low”
Ahh, but GDP is up and Nvidia is selling tons of chips. That’s all the markets and politicians care about anymore.
If credit cards didn’t exist, the peasants would already be looting and pillaging. Clever things credit cards- giving the poor a noose to hand themselves with.
A communist I knew when I was young said that religion is no longer the opiate of the masses, as nobody believes in God any more. Rather, buying on credit is now the opiate of the masses.
Check the activity at pawn shops. That’ll tell you how the economy is really doing.
I bet there’s something to be learned int the ratio between guns, guitars, jewelry, and tools too.
One’s consumer sentiment takes a major blow when you’ve hocked the stuff you made a living with.
Good thing one can’t hock a cooter.
That display case would be disturbing.
not true. they certainly have been hocked for thousands of years.
Nope those are rentals. If you hock it, you don’t get it back till you pay off the loan.
you never heard of child prostitution or pimps and whores? or kings with harems? or indentured servants………or slaves. slaves could buy their cooters back.
This has me thinking, “Vote Republican.” They’re good at fixing financial problems.
Makes me think of that far side cartoon about the horse doctor looking at a list of conditions and treatments. The treatments were all “shoot”.
New Texas Senate poll signals shift for GOP as early voting nears
https://www.aol.com/articles/texas-senate-poll-signals-shift-153300000.html
Would not surprise me.
Cut off the Koolaid, you’ve clearly had too much.
EVERYONE GO INQUIRE OF FINVIZ “WHERE IS THE MISH FEED THAT IS SET TO SHOW BUT IS NOT”?
FISHY!
https://finviz.com/contact
Oh fishy fishy, fishy, fishy fish.
That went, wherever I, did go.
Upvote cause I see the silent snark tag.
Not surprised but who cares about consumer sentiment in a K-shaped recovery? Not the politicians, they have to oligarchy to cover they political donations.
The rest of us are annoyances.
I think they’ve had this voting thing pretty much in the bag for quite a while now. The trick to cheating is just be shameless about it and everybody’s so astonished that they just stand there slack jawed watching you cheat them.
Always was, always will be.
FinViz has linked your articles for ages. That’s how I first found you. Did they dump you? Haven’t seen a link since Oct 7 French budget article. Their loss, if so.
MAJOR BEEN WONDERING ABOUT THIS.
Did Russian plant (Google aka: Durden and see) Zero Hedge get you cut off? I suspect some right-wing nefarious activity there.
The truth hurts so they’ll just cut it off and pretend that Russian diesel really exists. These people are cultists after all.
EXACTLY.
Like Putin wants to piss off a populace waiting for blocks for diesel to ship to US. BS. THIS IS PUTIN HELPING TRY AND MANIPULATE THE ELECTIONS.
Watch, we won’t get jack for diesel. And whatever we might get (months down the road – tanker transit from there is over a monh!) won’t make a difference.
Putin is buying diesel from India.
How’s Russia gonna help the US?
They probably cut it because Mish is speaking a little too truthfully about how utterly retarded Bessent is. Meanwhile they’ve gone and added some insane MAGA shill’s substack babbling about “money flows” and how Trump will make everything good. I think I’ll find a different site to check stocks on.
there is some interesting psychology behind why people think the economy is fine, it is spiteful
It’s fine because Jesus will rise and pay my bills
When he’s done, send him over to my house. I need him to build me a hotrod.
Since I accepted Jesus Christ as my best friend and soul saver in 2001 my life has been incredible. Everything I own or buy is given free of charge. I go to the grocery store and the manager meets me at the check-out allowing me through no charge. My car finance company and house mortgage company have waived payment and sent me the unencumbered titles. My amazon account ships everything totally free, not just shipping charges but payment for merchandise is waived. Really winning at poker is so automatic it’s becoming boring. When I buy a stock it goes up, up, up and when I decide to sell it, it goes down the next day, incredible.
I hesitated to tell everyone about this because I wasn’t sure how much room there was in the pool, so please don’t try this at home.
Things have changed somewhat since being admitted to the Psychiatric Hospital but it’s ok as it’s free also and they allow me internet time everyday.
😜
It is fine! I’m retired, have a decent pension, don’t need to touch investments, investments are growing faster than inflation, mortgage and all debt paid off, drive a hybrid that gets 53 mpg. Considering taking Social Security next year, but don’t really need to. The economy is a personal thing.
Us oldsters are ok (assuming no catastrophes), but the kids are absolutely fucked, and the more they are confronted by it, the angrier they’re gonna get.
They might decide to make a catastrophe.
I have already seen the “parasites” rhetoric about boomers right here. No country for old men?
We better be damn friendly and gracious if we don’t want to be the focus of the catastrophe. If the immigrants stop working as ragebait, the oligarchs might replace them with us.
Old people live at the pleasure of the young ones. Always have, always will.
Not enough ice floes for the boomers.
the boomers are mostly spoiled cunts. with no knowledge of hard times. i’m a boomer.
About 50-60 percent of the population is “OK” or better.
As you say, it is personal, except, I say, with shared risk exposures.
“It is fine” and “I am fine” are actually two different statements. Wow, I’m not the yardstick for “it”? Psychologists call it “splitting and projection:” creating a mental boundary of security and exclusion and otherness. “I will be fine” and “it will be fine” are yet other statements.
As for those 150 million or so in the not-fine end of the spreadsheet, now and looking ahead (with no fixes for them in plain sight): hopefully you’ve got that reinforced steel gated community pre-installed, and the other needed hardware ready.
True my take is drive down your street and through your town look at your position. . My guess is most people on this site maybe doing well but are a lot closer to the bottom than the top. That is when things get really bad you dont the luxury of bodyguards, private jets and 100-acre properties in nz.
The bottoms gonna come to you.
It’s a “personal thing” to a selfish person.
Sure, starving Obamacare subsidies to cut millions/ Then play political BS games and NOW send $500 IS ONLY TRYING TO BRIBE VOTERS.
BUT YOU DON’T CARE AS IT’S ALL ABOUT YOU. Sleep tight.
Consumers are negative yet they’re spending money on leisure like no tomorrow. A friend of mine owns three restaurants in Chicagoland, he’s having record revs, record profits. Attendance in beleaguered baseball, up four straight seasons. Cheap concert seats? Fuggedaboutit. And, it’s not just in the States, Latin America has turned a corner not seen since pre-financial crisis.
Obviously the market doesn’t trust this report. How else does a “struggling consumer” equal slightly higher rates on the day with SPX,up 30pts.
Simple – the rich live lives that would put Gilded Age robber barons or Roman emperors to shame.
The peons live like paupers. Time for another tax cut for the billionaires!
Yes, this is the K-shaped economy that Bessent insists we don’t have
Lollapalooza
Pitchfork
Riot Fest
The Holy Trinity.
I am holding out buying tickets to any event until Keith Richards is in another one of those pirate movies.
They’re just running up their credit card bills.
Life is still expensive.
When you’ve decided to give in to Total Financial Destruction, and have your kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames, VISA is there.
That was the premise of Leaving Las Vegas (1995). I suddenly realized it was about me, with my completely apocalyptic views and ways. I cleaned things up and got a whole new lease on life. The world and I proved far, far more resilient than I expected. I hope the world, and I, can repeat that trick. And I no longer coolly scoff at it.
They made us read “Alas Babylon” when I was about 11 years old. Led me to invent nihilism, then hedonism all on my own.
I went on a bender that lasted into my thirties. Turns out the apocalypse is always late, and that I am a greater danger to myself than all the nukes in the world.
It was a pretty good time though, even if I did get a little beat up.
Imo there are gen xers who are benefitting from inherited iras combined with their own.
When i go out i look around a who the customers are. Not a lot of family’s with kids.
“Merry Christmas to all, including the Radical Left Scum that is doing everything possible to destroy our Country, but are failing badly.”
“Trump calls Democrats ‘radical left scum’ in Christmas Eve message
TRT World (December 25, 2025)
Vote in the midterms to keep all of Trump’s ass kissing Republicans in office…
if you want to successfully destroy the country.
But… Christmas! Think of the Child…..rapers!
You make Baby Jesus cry.
the buying power of the consumer dollar “can” reverse direction.
if it does not reverse, the federal reserve and banking system as we know it will end or a currency reissue will occur to save it.
That means bailout! Clearly, this is bullish for stocks!
Only sorta /sarc
We’ll have divided government in three months. Hopefully that will stymie any bailouts or giveaways.
Nah, remember 2007? 2019?
When it comes time to put another war on the national credit card or bail out the billionaires at the casino again, a bipartisan consensus can always be found, just as a revolving case of villains can be found to stymie efforts to fund wasteful fripperies like “healthcare” “education” or “infrastructure”.
Assuming the election isn’t stolen, no emergency is declared, and they allow the newly elected into the building.
By that point I think the economy will be the least of anyone’s worries.
Stock up on ammo, beans, and whiskey while you can!
I was thinking, we’ll look around after team potus ties up the election results in court, calling fraud, and realize everything thing is the same as last week!
You know SNAFU…
The market will have at least corrected so looking forward to this as a buying opportunity?
Get the good stuff, Tennessee Sour Mash (George Dickel) not that Kentucky slop.
lol