The markets are generally happy today, but US-produced oil does not seem to fit. 
This reaction can largely be explained by Trump’s announcement yesterday that he is willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
But the implications of oil higher-for-longer are unsettling. If the strait remains closed, we will have higher prices for oil, fertilizer, helium, aluminum, and other commodities.
That’s not at all good for inflation or long-term bond prices.
Technical Explanations
The S&P was down five straight weeks. The VIX, a measure of fear and volatility, was a very elevated 30.61 yesterday (yellow highlight).
The markets were interested in any bit of good news they could find, and Trump provided that news.
Diesel $0.36 from Record
This morning, I noted Gasoline Prices Top $4 First Time Since Aug 2022, Diesel $0.36 from Record
- The national average price of gasoline topped $4.00 today for the first time since August 2022.
- Gasoline prices are $1.04 from a month ago, up 34.7 percent.
- The price of diesel is up $1.70 from a month ago, 44.4 percent. Diesel is only 36 cents from a new record high.
As bad as things are for consumers, they are miserable for farmers and truckers.
Farmers and truckers are both big diesel users. Rising diesel and fertilizer prices are going to have an impact on prices at the grocery store.
Markets Rattled by the Blockage
The Wall Street Journal comments on The Other Markets Being Rattled by the Blockage of Hormuz
- Fertilizer: The fighting has stranded big chunks of the world’s supply of ammonia, urea, sulfur and phosphates.
- LNG: It has also choked off roughly 20% of the supply of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, which fertilizer makers in Europe and elsewhere need to generate the tremendous amounts of electricity necessary to convert atmospheric nitrogen into plant food.
- Aluminum: As with urea, Qatar has shut down its aluminum production.
- Helium: Helium is is an essential coolant in MRI machines and semiconductor manufacturing. The U.S. produces the most helium, yet Qatar accounts for about 35% of world capacity. If its output remains offline for another four to eight weeks, supplies will be stretched and could cause problems for chip makers, said François Jackow, chief executive of industrial gas supplier Air Liquide.
- Plastics: Investors expect domestic producers to be able to raise prices in step with import-reliant rivals that face more expensive byproducts of oil-and-gas production and processing. Naphtha, ethane and propane are the building blocks of plastics.
- Cotton: Higher plastics prices have driven traders into cotton futures. The more pricey polyester and other synthetics are, the more clothing and textile makers shift to cotton, prices of which have been depressed. Cotton futures are up just 4.6% this month, but they hit 70 cents a pound Friday, the highest price since December 2024.
Charlie Bilello on Fertilizer
About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
It takes 30 days for a vessel of urea to load in the Persian Gulf, sail to the US, and reach the interior. A vessel loading today might not arrive until May 1. The spring application window does not wait for a ceasefire.
Every week of continued disruption pushes more acreage from nitrogen-intensive corn toward soybeans. Once planted, that decision is irreversible for the growing season. The corn-urea ratio is at 87 to 90 bushels per ton, a five-year high per CME Group data. Farmers cannot afford to plant corn at these nitrogen prices.
This is not a commodity cycle. This is a structural acreage reallocation being driven by a naval blockade eight thousand miles from Iowa, and it will show up on every American’s grocery receipt by autumn.
40 Percent of Global Helium Is Offline
The Health Impact of Helium
Add It All Up
If you add this all up, the two words that best describe the setup are “more inflation.”
This is why Powell Powell Warns the Markets and Trump that His Patience with Inflation Has Limits
Powell’s speech was to Harvard students but read between the lines.
A quick check of CME Fedwatch suggests shows the market now expects the Fed to hold interest rates steady all the way through March.
But if the strait remains closed for long, the next move is far more likely to be a series of hikes.
The only other possibility is huge demand destruction due to recession. Either way, the stock markets fundamentally have little to cheer.
Yes, Trump, Netanyahoo, and whoever else who decided to start this war made a big mistake that will probably cause long term damage but ending it asap is cutting the losses as continuing the war with all its death and destruction would only make things worse. I’m skeptical but hopeful it really ends.
It is a pretty good indicator of the low level of intelligence of the sheep in general that anything Trump says moves markets, as it did today.
The same sheep who were easily manipulated into accepting as their only choices for their new masters…Kamala or Trump.
We’re back to the “it’s transitory theme” again….that worked out well.
What the administration could do?
Of course, if NATO has not yet been struck a death blow by the war with Russia and Trump’s efforts of off-loading this American provoked confrontation to Europe, and now the Strait of Hormuz, not to forget switching the Europeans off (Nord-Stream) dependable Russian energy to politically levered American energy, halting hydrocarbons to Europe (already happening as Asia outbids) at this juncture may well cement the fate of the West’s 100 year war against Russia.
If you seriously think this benefits Russia and not the China who increasingly owns them outright, you might be a vatnik.
Today China signalled that it may step in as it issued joint statement together with Pakistan on the war. That may explain why oil is down, stocks are up, bond yileds down, dollar down, yuan up, gold up (Middle East stopped selling?).
Trump moves markets with his fakes stories. China moves markets with its statements.
Hard to say if anything from that joint statement will get implemented in near future.
Unless I’m missing something, it seems like there haven’t been any noteworthy strikes on Iran – by the US or Israel in the last few days. Maybe the aggressors have realized that they are more vulnerable to retaliatory strikes from Iran than Iran is to more strikes from the aggressors. Look at who’s more dependent on desalination. And there are of oil and gas fields in the GCC countries (and offshore of northern Israel) that haven’t been targeted by Iran (yet).
Perhaps someone with a functioning brain (i.e. outside the WH) has figured out that Israel is 1.25% of the size of Iran. So it will take 5.000 missiles to create the same relative damage to Iran compare to the damage 50 cause in Israel as has already frequently happened on a daily basis.
The information to evacuate Tel Aviv certainly was meant seriously.
Not a terribly good start for Greater Israel with the emperor found not to wear any clothes.
Some of my soy/corn farming neighbors are starting to freak out as they look at urea prices!
First time ever there were no MAGA hats at coffee!
I’m in shock at one of them berating Trump this morning! He was met with a few harrumphs and reluctant agreement. I would never talk against Trump so vehemently as he did.
Thursday might be different depending on what Trump says this evening.
Question is would they vote for a moderate dem at state and national level. If not their misery will be prolonged.
I never quite understood. Seems to me both parties seem to take care of the farmers. Guess it comes down to culture war stuff.
“moderate dem” ha ha ha ha ha ha. You haven’t figured out why Trump won yet.
Trump won because he is good at tapping into the same ole republican lines. Fear of taking guns /abortion / immigration/ culture war / voter fraud and many more.
Kamala was a weak candidate and a portion of the us wont vote for a woman. Throw in the conservative media / some influence from outside actors/ you could throw in some gerrymandering. ( operation red map would be a good place to start) The icing on the cake to elons money. Also i bet you did down you will find very targeted algorithms which help trump skim around 2 percent from groups he did not carry.
Still only won by a bit over 2 million votes. Far cry from the mandate he claims. Think biden won by 8 million i may be wrong on that.
Moderate just means a candidate has to appease votes from the middle and a bit from the other side to remain elected. Hard to do these days when the political machine has made it our side vs them instead of policy.
Im an independent. Personally i would rather take my chances of having to pee beside a dude in a dress than all this pedo protecting mess going on now. Im thinking a lot of other voters will be the same come midterms.
Good post. A lot of the consequences will occur during the midterm campaign season. Reduced corn harvest means higher prices for corn-based products including ethanol in gasoline. More soybeans planted just gives Xi more satisfaction when sourcing China’s needs from South America leaving the US with a huge surplus and low insufficient sales. The debt limit will be fast approaching and in focus by September when appropriation bills need passed with deficits and inflation escalating higher. Trump will need to find a way to divert the press including Fox loyalists from properly blaming him, so I expect Taco to be in the firing mood. As for congress, the coming circumstances will only fuel blame, bickering and focus on meaningless legislation. Serious debate on tough issues will be hard to find primarily because the folks responsible for the repairs are the same folks responsible for the problems. We just might get some truth about the Epstein files if it provides a path for congress to avoid fixing the fiscal mess.
so I expect Taco to be in the firing mood
especially when his ballroom plans are being blocked
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/31/politics/judge-rules-that-white-house-ballroom-contstuction-stop?cid=ios_app
Cuba better watch out!
First person he should fire is Susie Wiles, Chief Zionist. The chutzpah it took for Trump to start demolition on the White House is off the chart. And the cost the ballroom is grotesque.
well not as bad of numbers right at quarter end…
What an absolute unit…lolz
“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT
7.37k ReTruths 30.3k Likes Mar 31, 2026, 12:11 PM”
Trumps stance toward Europe only drives them into Russias arms to get their energy since the US is so unstable at the top.
Russia is a much more consistent evil.
Europe no longer matters on the world stage other than being an interesting place to visit.
When you started posting comments here they were actually thoughtful but now you sound like a deranged kook. I think aging does that to most people, just look at Trump.
Europe has a population of 743 million people. I think you frequently forget that S&P 500 companies get over 50% of their revenue from OUTSIDE the US. Don’t get me started on the populations of Asia, Middle East and Latin America.
Sure lots of customers (743 million) in Europe, no question there.
But does Europe have:
1) Any critical resources (Oil, Uranium, rare earths, gold etc) in any quantities that matter (ie beyond European consumption)?
2) Any leadership in key manufacturing (its all in China/Japan with the rest in the US)
3) Anything key technologies (phones are US/Korea, EV’s are US or China, Social Media is all USA, AI is US/China, Finance and Crypto are US and so on)?.
4) Any important food stuffs (coffee, cocoa) or major surpluses in important crops (wheat, rice)?
5) Any real Military power to speak of?
It used to at least have relevant cultural stuff (UK bands from the 60s – 90s were everywhere) but there really isn’t any relevant music or movies etc that come out of Europe any more either. The top universities were once in Europe but are increasingly in the US, China, Japan and India.
Put it to you another way. Unless you own a Euro car (BMW, Audi etc) what else European made do you own or European technology do you regularly use or European food do you specially buy (other than maybe liquor like Scotch or Champagne).
It’s totally irrelevant on the world stage now in term of importance.
If Europe were half as irrelevant as your polemic claims, you would never waste precious time from your life on such worthless endeavors. We know you value yourself more highly than that.
Ferrari, Porsche, McLaren!
Italian women, French wine, Swiss watches…
Airbus 300’s…
I believe I already mentioned Euro cars. Though given how far they are behind on EVs and EV technology (batteries) that may not last much longer either at least in terms of cars exported outside Europe.
Airbus might be the only relevant industry (in a leadership role/position in world wide passenger aircraft) left in Europe.
EU has over $20T of GDP.
Maybe take the red ball cap off your head, it’s well-proven to depress brain activity.
You can have lots of GDP and be irrelevant if none of it matters to anyone else (ie nothing you export that the rest of the world couldn’t live without).
This is a very roundabout way of telling everyone you have no idea what Europe has or makes and I for one don’t feel like spoon-feeding you. Where do you think their GDP comes from? Cheese exports?
You do realize can have a massive GDP in a closed system.
any idea why we are running a trade deficit with them then?
apparently we want something from them.
pharmaceuticals would be on the top of my list of things that may matter from Europe.
Or split the difference and focus on renewables.
The sun may not always shine and the wind may not always blow. But well here we are
What a coincidence that all seven of the highest statewide diesel price surges happened in states where Trump earned more votes than Biden in 2024. One more marble on the blue wave scale.
Could be something to it. Way back in the 80s i used to observe gas prices would rise around election time if a dem was in office.
This part is the pump…
…and then comes the dump
Trump and Israel have helped people Globally know that the War the West started with Iran— lacks an honest reason– as to why? Maybe people are right when they say this War was just to distract Americans from the coverage of the Epstein files? This Epstein distraction strategy has been a total failure with endless negative repercussions for almost everyone on the Planet. America is becoming a Zero World Country?
We’re striving for Thunderdome
At best Trump & 7 Twerps just buy some time. Taiwan is saying helium supplies will beginning running out in June. So by July when the semi food chain can get hit then and that’ll get serious attention.
It all comes back to WT* did Trump not have The Straight in his war plans for? B/e he’s a compulsive idiot you say? At a mimum we need Cabinet turnover to speed up. There’s chatter Hegseth could be a scape goat.
His makeup and hair people from Fox would be devastated. They would have to find a new hair gel consumer!
I’d guess some Macro hedge fund blew up.
the president privately told his aides that he’s willing to end the U.S. war on Iran even if the Strait remains largely closed
so Iran ‘won’?
Won and then some. Trump started a war he lost, plus the Strait is closed now but was open when he started. Cue the Iranian toll booth. In what world is Iran not a total winner? Like they care how much of their military has been compromised.
The Usonian arsenal is deeply compromised, so, yes, Iran won and then some more.
Toll booth raises prices a win for american energy exporters.
All daily and hourly asset valuation activity and directional changes are secondary to relatively oversold and relatively overbought conditions, which are incorporated and conform to the asset-debt system’s time-based quantum fractal patterns… The current ACWI 28 day 2nd crash decay fractal started on 3 March 2026 and is following a 5/10/8 of 9/7 days 4-phase fractal pattern. 1 April will be day 9, an expected final lower high or lower lower high (overbought saturation day). For the French CAC composite tracking the same pattern, a 13 April 7 day (two trading holidays vice one for US exchanges) 4th decay subfractal from the 1 April lower high will undergo a >22% devaluation.
I see this Sow pig with a sharp snap-back rallying into the 49,000-50,000 range, then a…..long…..slow…..drift LOWER for LONGER as the economic impacts of this foolish stunt begin to hit the shore.
But it was worth it, right guys?
Also, the reason for the latest uptick was all IRAN announcing it is amenable to ending this nonsense….had nothing to do with Cheeto breath,,,but he’ll take the credit I’ll bet.
Iran and Oman have realized that they are about to become much, much richer.
Well initially the tolls that the rest of the world pays (US won’t pay since we don’t use the strait) will fund the reparations for re-construction of everything that’s been destroyed.
Meanwhile pipelines will be laid directly to Israel and other locations on the Mediterranean sea to bypass the strait.
those pipelines will all be well with in Iran’s missile range.
we went from ‘Iran is an existential threat to the world whose regime has to go’
to
“pipelines will be built and tolls will be paid to Iran, its all good” in the space of a day.
this is why I can’t be a republican or a democrat. I have a set of standards that I hold my politicians accountable to instead of a set of politicians that I hold my standards accountable too.
The breaking news a few minutes ago was that Iran was willing to end the war which drove markets up today. Lord help me, I’m making so much money with this volatility!
You were long oil as I recall. No doubt you made some bank but today was a bloodbath for oil and the VIX. I bailed in the pre-market and just re-loaded some and have some bottom feeding orders on a few hundred more VIX calls.
Sure it is fun, but buying directional options feels a lot more like gambling than investing!
You can’t invest at a rigged casino.
The whole Shanaka Anslem Perera discussion re: helium is worth a read, how anyone can put together this sort of analysis is beyond me.
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-last-molecule-standing
WOW! What an amazing read!
Thank You!
+100
Dead rat bounce?
This is an electrocuted rat. It does so much more than bounce.